EVERYTHING Elon Musk Said About FSD In Q4 Earnings Call
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- Опубликовано: 11 сен 2024
- Tesla Q4 Earnings Call. Everything Elon Musk Said about FSD.
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thank you for this summary Emmett 🙂
Just keep being you you info and insight are more meanful than most all of the channels.
I'm a little down after hearing I'll be waiting longer for my Cybertrucks.. Robo-taxi news has me excited tho.. Buying more $TSLA while it's on sale! Thanks ✌
Excellent! Future is exciting!
I am very excited for this to happen!
Awesome, thanks!
been here since 2020 and i look forward to your video on standup comedy
Thanks! It’s about my first time back on stage since the pandemic started.
Like a hazelnut coffee in the morning. Tesla Stock is Nutty Good (TM). Fantastic Recap! I wish the youtube algo would love you as much as I do!
I’ve been watching FSD Beta videos! It’s mind melting and it’s in its infancy
Please keep doing what you like for as long as you possibly can.
Really good video
Takes a long time to build a following, but your overall content, is top tier.
Will be neat to see the insane video's you would make, or have made, when your sitting on an empire. :D
#Remindme5years
I appreciate it! If bitcoin doubles I’ll get an editor and double my output.
While the tech will be ready soon, the biggest hurdle will be politicians and regulations delaying rollout. We’ll see how that plays out.
7:35 IT contributed less than 1% to the GDP productivity? I can't think of a single significant industry that doesn't use IT.
I think what they say about autonomous driving is on point if not understating it. I am worried about the actual progress tho; level 5 this year? I don't know how this is possible. I just don't think government will allow a robotaxi for at least 3 years.
Yeah I don’t think Elon’s talking about getting government approval this year. I think he just means they’ll have the capability. I am thinking a wide release of a fairly reliable beta this year could be realistic.
I’m very bullish about TSLA, although I’m a bit puzzled about the human bot getting prioritized before Cyber? Help me understand that. Thanks
Do what you do good sir...
Let's just hope that "Elon Time" is not a factor with FSD. I'm currently using the FSD Beta and we have pretty good straight and flat roads here in Arizona yet our car drives better in California??? More data in CA I guess. FSD Beta is pretty impressive BUT there is a part of me that thinks the current hardware (mainly the cameras I'm thinking) are not good enough. We have a 2021 Model Y
Damn. Hope you’re wrong. Mines a 2019 model 3
FSD will certainly not be ready this year, or next. Everything Elon says about FSD is on 'Elon time'.
It's quite terrible in urban driving, can't handle medium rain, any snow, has terrible maps, constantly going in wrong lanes, is clueless in parking lots, and isn't even reliable on highways. I doubt Beta can average ten minutes between failures in busy urban driving, the only place robotaxis will be valuable. It needs to go millions of miles between failures on average to be good enough for robotaxi. FSD figuring all this out so quickly would be beyond miraculous, and won't happen any time soon.
@@charliedoyle7824 The only upside to a shorter timeline is how neural-nets seem to rapidly iterate and advance toward the later half or third of it's training. In other words, it took Google's Deepmind a far amount of time just to learn Go, Chess and Video Games, but once it learned them, it became an "Expert" in a short period of time. So what if FSD Beta becomes expert in a short period of time?
@@markaboyce sure, we can't rule out a big exponential growth in improvement. Driving is an unsolved problem, so you never know, maybe unexpected improvement will just happen, since AI has shown big exponential improvements many times after years of slow progress.
The big difference between Go and driving is, Go isn't out there in the real world dealing with the infinite variety of weird stuff happening on roads, and even the huge variety of bad road infrastructure. In Go, there aren't double-parked cars next to jaywalkers, next to a traffic cop directing around a road scene, followed by confusing intersections with no lane lines and unprotected turns. Those and many others are the reasons driving is so hard. If driving were done in a predictable world, like a video game, FSD would be solved by now by dozens of companies.
Also Go isn't relying on a hardware setup perceiving the world first and generating outputs that the neural nets take as inputs to make a decision. I think if you watch enough Beta videos out there, it's obvious that the system often fails to perceive the world correctly, gets blinded by the sun, and sometimes just shuts down in the middle of a drive, and it can't handle rain unless it's really lite.
If the hardware isn't up to the job, the system will never work. Part of the hardware setup is also the maps being used by FSD, which are really bad, leading to endless bad lane decisions and incorrect road rules.
Neural Nets alone are also not proven for this kind of decision-making driving policy, even if the perception is good enough. Maybe they'll end up being robust enough, maybe not.
From what I'm seeing, they're a long way from a reliable, safe robo-driver, and the progress is not close to fast enough.
Good stuff, is Tesla going back up to $1,000 In Q2?
🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼 hard to say. Seems like everything is going good except for investors being scared. The fear of fear is holding us back.
And the robo taxis won’t be generating tax revenue like andrew yang has said so we need a VAT to grab the revenue being generated by these trillion dollar tech companies to help pay for crumbling infrastructure that these vehicles will be driving on 🙄
Emmett, we’re on the same page.
how's that UBI crypto going?
I was telling my boss about Optimus replacing human labor.. His question, "How will people make money?".. I said, "we'll figure it out"... What are your thoughts? Everyone has to get jobs that an AGI humanoid robot cannot do, (I can't think of any) or are we going to see human survival a given birthright with the cost of goods essentially free? Or something entirely different? 🤔
Elon and Yang say UBI. But people are still gonna need to do something. Art, services, maybe people will have time to do a lot more pick up basketball and surf! I would love that. But I think people still need to think of robots as enablers not takers.
Spot on Emmett 👍 I have never heard Elon so confident in FSD. General public starting to get it with electric cars, especially in Europe and China. FSD will be next.
Wasn’t Elon this ‘confident’ about FSD in 2016?17? When he mentioned your Tesla in 2019 would be able to earn money as a FSD-taxi?
@@antonyborlase3965 You are quite correct. I don’t think anyone could argue that his timelines have been off and that the difficulty (by him) was understated. However there does seem to be real progress happening now. However, time will tell.
How will the business model work?
Aside from hardware (vehicle + generation + long term storage etc) I am aware there is also a FSD enablement fee.
Is this a subscription/annual charge, or a one time only at purchase fee?
Also, will Tesla take a share of all ride hails? At the beginning of the video you are excited to say your robotaxi will generate ride hail revenue for you.
Do you think Tesla will switch it so that they take a share of all ride hail fees, and remove the FSD enablement fee? Or strangle ride hail share revenue by maintaining the FSD enablement fee?
I can also imagine Tesla itself will have a private fleet where they absorb all the ride hail fees.
Mad multipliers. Can't wait
W
The news that I have heard them sharing already is that every Tesla owner will be able to buy access to FSD as a one time purchase or a subscription. The price of which will keep increasing as they get closer to Full autonomy.
Tesla plans to take a 30% cut, but the predicted income is seen at around 30k dollars per year, so the car would pay itself off after around 3 years. So expect the FSD price to get into 30k values as well.
Since all cars delivered since the middle of last year have the custom Tesla chip capable of full autonomy, they are actually going up in value the most drastically, as you were able to buy FSD for around 7.000$ back then. Cars normally don't do that ;3
There is an interesting fact I've found that was not commented on by Tesla. They have opened some vehicle wear-and-tear center that is supposed to check out which parts of Tesla's are the most sensitive to being damaged in the case of them being a robo-taxi. So for example people there are having fun trying to find ways to destroy some of the parts of the car, spilling drinks on the seats and puking everywhere. The goal is to make the car more resistant such damage.
Imagine that you have driven to work in your car and want it to work as a robotaxi for the 8 hours that you'll be there. But at some point someone pukes on your seat (which you find out about through the app and the inside camera of the car.) The ideal scenario would be that you just send the car to such a center, where they quickly switch the whole seat for a new one like a lego block and then clean the dirty one it in their own facility. The customer that made the mess would be charged from their bank card, as it was connected to the robo-taxi app and the act has been recorded. Easy-peasy.
And we definitely expect people to act dumb in those robo-taxi's for the first few years. They will act like dicks and many "customers" will try to damage the car. Unless the repair process is fast, tesla owners will not want to share their private car with strangers. The Tesla folks know this.
Feel free to ask any further questions ;3
@@diamenciarz1711 this is great.
You seem well informed. Do you put anything out on twitter, insta, RUclips regularly.
I'd love to follow you
And to your question about Tesla having a private fleet - why not. At some point it might become more cost effective for tesla to make every car a robi-taxi of their own. As not every customer would want to buy the FSD options, why waste the car on such customers?
If Tesla sells their car for 50k and the customer doesn't buy FSD, then 50k is all Tesla gets.
If the customer buys FSD, then the FSD selling income would be around 30k or I don't know how much plus 30 % cut would be an additional 10k per year (totally free) income for tesla.
Since the difference is so high, why risk selling cars to customers that won't buy the FSD options?
If tesla produces the car for themselves (and they have 30% margins on the cars right now) that will cost them around 30k of that potential 50k to build the car, so they wouldn't get the 20k income, but they would take the full yearly income for FSD. It has been said to be 30k in the worst case scenario.
And their cars are supposed to last a million miles, that could be about 10 years, so 300k income per car.
I guess that they will increase the price of the car to make up for those people, who don't want to buy a Tesla with FSD or make the FSD a compulsory choice.
How much would you want to sell a money machine for?
People did sell bitcoin mining machines, right? But they had a problem with being illegal in many places. It's all clean here.
What about legislations? I think that after autonomy gets to 10x safer than humans in the scenario of driving on roads with other humans, the legislators will not have any counter arguments. They would be voting to kill people, if they disagreed. Right now, the base version of autopilot is around 8 times safer than humans and FSD Beta has not been in a singke accident since the rollout of the program. And that is all data from roads with human drivers. Those get drunk, drive asleep, road rage, get health issues, horrible drivers! Imagine how safe the roads would be if 80% of cars were autonomous!
These cars have 360 degree vision in 30 frames per second and access to data about the sloppiness of the road from a bunch of sensors. They can predict the trajectory of other cars to avoid an accident before it happens. They are able to control each wheel separately with milimeter precision!
I would trust that like an elevator!
Many people don't know that and tesla is still valued at 1T$. Once they find out, they will invest even more.
You make money on the stock market, if you are right, when the majority is wrong. Over the time when they change their minds, you get all of their money as profits.
Cheers, mate!
So nie
@@jackwarren8498 Thanks for the kind words, I'm only making my friends angry by talking about tesla constantly. And all of that was taken from already existing channels. :3
I think that the best summing it all up source is "Connecting the dots (channel) the tesla secret army (video title)" in this video he lists all of the creators that cover various topics about autonomy, battery chemistry, car production, etc.
I hope you'll have fun watching it.
_Gawk_ _Gawk_ _Gawk_ _Gawk_ _Gawk_
"Deeper, Mr.Musk? Ok!"
Doing ok?
"if there is no $25k vehicle being worked on"..Elon giggles...
Yeah, they're still making it, just focusing on FSD because it's a $25k robotaxi.
Hey Emmett... Did you realize that in just a few short weeks, Elon Musk will be the first man to ever have a vehicular accident on the moon? You think Progressive will cover that? :D
Yes I hope Elon won't accidentally incinerate the moon
It's just that Elon says "this year" every year... Also, I don't like a future where I can't own my own car or it is just way expensive.
Bet someone once said that about their horse
The World Economic Forum said it best " By 2030 you'll own nothing and be happy". They just know what's about to happen with the digitalization of the fourth industrial revolution
And yet you use a social media service where you don't own your data.
@@CSHarvey I do own the hardware, don't I? Not really the same thing
No level 5 he might reach level 3
You know, I hate mowing my lawn. They sell autonomous lawn mowers. Guess what, I neither have an autonomous lawn mower, nor is there a service offering to mow my lawn with one for a low price. Why? FSD take rate is abysmally low. Early adopters and risk takers are a finite pool to pull from and of those, how many actually subscribe to Elon's belief that people will willingly give up their own vehicles to the robotaxi fleet? Again, a very small pool. I think we may get there one day, in busy urban centers, but not for the foreseeable future. Regardless of level 5 achievement or not.
I'll say those FSD predictions are BS 'cause they do not consider so many economic and tech factors. Elon says FSD is much safer than human, but in what conditions? Perfect infra is required, but actually exists only in a small number of developed countries, like the US. What about the rest of the world? What about bad roads with no sings and bad drivers around? What about predicting human behavior based on mentality knowledge, that changes from country to country and sometimes even from street to street? In some countries people would beat you up if they would think you cut them on the road. How FSD would be safe in those situations? Besides, for better analogy, imagine some crazy tech geek would invent a perfect wheelchair, would it mean that crowds of healthy young men would suddenly buy them because they're sick and tired to walk and stand on their own legs? Surely, that's a stupid thing to believe in. :)