Not saying your 100% wrong but there are several stocks that obv moves with price action....this stock is very manipulated...before you call me out of conspiracy...my finance degree from FSU and minors in economics....
Yes, I am aware, but they do not have massive outlier volume spikes like AMC, GME, MEGL etc. It is a 50-60X massive outlier spike in volume that throws off OBV. Tickers like HOOD or NFLX or any others where the OBV follows price, you will find volume is relatively normal throughout the range or there was high volume on a down day. The oddball tickers like AMC, GME, MEGL have not had high volume sell off days, it’s more like a slow drain and a mix of up and down days, so OBV isn’t affected. 10M volume down days isnt going to make a dent in a few days on billions of OBV up days.
Thanks Tony. One question from your last interview. He stated that shorts are closed in a day or 2 because their aim is to be neutral at the end of the day. That blows up the reason / premise most of us are in this play, that the shorts haven’t closed their position. Please, explain your thoughts on this , maybe at tonights’s live? Thanks for all you do to educate us ❤
That comment was specific to market makers. The market maker is a middle man, not an entity that is trying to short a company. Market makers end the day flat on risk, or that is the goal anyways. Although a MM ‘could’ work in conjunction with a shorting institution to influence price direction if they had bad intentions. You can probably guess which one I am alluding to…
@@TonyDenaro yes in the case of Citadel they are both the HF and MM, was just confirming that other HF have had their short positions for a long time now without closing them. Hoping the economic conditions we are in right now facilitate a black swan event and they are forced to close 🤞
It’s an interesting time right now with the meme stock excitement and Roaring Kitty. But I am waiting for that to kind of pass and see how Q2 Box Office progresses in June. I’ll be doing weekly videos in June (hopefully on Mondays) doing some talks on cash burn so we can see how that plays into any upcoming equity raise (dilution) risk. Q3 box office is expected to be better.
My only issue tony how have we consistently owned 80% everytime Adam announced retail ownership. If retail is in fact selling how does that happen. Also, I think the buying pressure has slowed as people have put all the money they want jnto amc. If the percentage of shorted shares is 60% almost consistent, would the OBV and MIF show its goong down as it outweigh the buy and give the appearance of retail is in fact selling. Everyone I know In the community is holding a bag and has lost so much they can't sell. Any sellers I know sold in the 20's.
Why would you think that everyone has put all the money they want into AMC ? With AMC at these low prices, people get paychecks from their jobs every week, and I bet a bunch of people buy more every week.
@Tech We Love ^ _ ^ it's sad you missed the point. But I'll answer your question. Everyone didn't represent every single person, it mean the majority have put all the money they can or will be risk in AMC. Alot of faith has been lost to the one that don't do DD. The traders and long term investors think differently and see this as a buying opportunity. My point was. Mathematically how have we owned 80% since may of 2021 and before ape Aug 2022 we still owned 80% (with index funds included), but we had been buying heavy for a year. It makes no sense.
Hey Toni, I don’t think it’s a bad idea that you may start, including some PTA in your videos because I think that may help solidify a lot of the truth that you bring whatever you put out information on stocks, Weatherby, AMC, or whether it be penny stocks that would just add to the arsenal for people to really for lack of a better term believe you when you speak the truth.
Tony thank you for breaking it down and everything you do to educate retail. I haven’t watched any of your videos (yet) so my apologies if this is a stupid question but do you believe that I AMC will ever squeeze and/or surpass the $72 it did a couple years ago?
Got asked this question the other day, same basic response here for ya. AMC currently still has high Short Interest and Cost to Borrow. Different stocks in this situation squeeze up every week, lower floats more easily than large floats,but it requires sustained buying pressure, usually caused by a news catalyst and/or FOMO. As long as those conditions remain in place for AMC there is a chance for a price move up. At some point after the lawsuit is over we will have to consider the dilution events that occur after. That could have some dampening effect as new shares in the float will change the short interest percentage. Will have to see how that all plays out. Last thought - If AMC is able to substantially improve the balance sheet by raising cash then it becomes less attractive to shorts. Lots of things in play. Can’t guarantee anything.
I expect more dilution. $325M maybe buys AMC grace for only 1-2 bad quarters. Writers/Actor strike is still ongoing, Dune got pushed and Taylor Swift, while helpful, is nowhere big enough to carry Q4 by itself. I am concerned after Q3 is over. What $1B films exist for Q4?
Thank you for breaking down why OBV looks elevated and sustained while AMC price has been declining. Very nice, detailed explanation here, Tony.
Finally after 2 yrs I can now understand how OBV works. Thank you Tony!
Love it
Not saying your 100% wrong but there are several stocks that obv moves with price action....this stock is very manipulated...before you call me out of conspiracy...my finance degree from FSU and minors in economics....
Yes, I am aware, but they do not have massive outlier volume spikes like AMC, GME, MEGL etc. It is a 50-60X massive outlier spike in volume that throws off OBV. Tickers like HOOD or NFLX or any others where the OBV follows price, you will find volume is relatively normal throughout the range or there was high volume on a down day. The oddball tickers like AMC, GME, MEGL have not had high volume sell off days, it’s more like a slow drain and a mix of up and down days, so OBV isn’t affected. 10M volume down days isnt going to make a dent in a few days on billions of OBV up days.
How does OBV compares to dark pool trading ??
Thanks Tony. One question from your last interview. He stated that shorts are closed in a day or 2 because their aim is to be neutral at the end of the day. That blows up the reason / premise most of us are in this play, that the shorts haven’t closed their position. Please, explain your thoughts on this , maybe at tonights’s live? Thanks for all you do to educate us ❤
That comment was specific to market makers. The market maker is a middle man, not an entity that is trying to short a company. Market makers end the day flat on risk, or that is the goal anyways. Although a MM ‘could’ work in conjunction with a shorting institution to influence price direction if they had bad intentions. You can probably guess which one I am alluding to…
@@TonyDenaro yes in the case of Citadel they are both the HF and MM, was just confirming that other HF have had their short positions for a long time now without closing them. Hoping the economic conditions we are in right now facilitate a black swan event and they are forced to close 🤞
nice to see an actual indicator that states we never sold AMC at $72
Thanks and a happy weekend.
Extremely helpful, thanks Tony!
Omg thanks man. It was driving me nuts you didn't ask about that. Makes sense now.
How are you feeling about AMC these days? came to learn about obv because AMCs is historically high right now.
It’s an interesting time right now with the meme stock excitement and Roaring Kitty. But I am waiting for that to kind of pass and see how Q2 Box Office progresses in June. I’ll be doing weekly videos in June (hopefully on Mondays) doing some talks on cash burn so we can see how that plays into any upcoming equity raise (dilution) risk.
Q3 box office is expected to be better.
I think obv works good in crypto because volume can fluctuate significantly
Great video, Tony 👍👍🇧🇷
Oooo can't wait for this🎉!
My only issue tony how have we consistently owned 80% everytime Adam announced retail ownership. If retail is in fact selling how does that happen.
Also, I think the buying pressure has slowed as people have put all the money they want jnto amc. If the percentage of shorted shares is 60% almost consistent, would the OBV and MIF show its goong down as it outweigh the buy and give the appearance of retail is in fact selling. Everyone I know In the community is holding a bag and has lost so much they can't sell. Any sellers I know sold in the 20's.
Why would you think that everyone has put all the money they want into AMC ? With AMC at these low prices, people get paychecks from their jobs every week, and I bet a bunch of people buy more every week.
@Tech We Love ^ _ ^ it's sad you missed the point. But I'll answer your question. Everyone didn't represent every single person, it mean the majority have put all the money they can or will be risk in AMC. Alot of faith has been lost to the one that don't do DD. The traders and long term investors think differently and see this as a buying opportunity.
My point was. Mathematically how have we owned 80% since may of 2021 and before ape Aug 2022 we still owned 80% (with index funds included), but we had been buying heavy for a year. It makes no sense.
Wen live ?
Later tonight will be a Live
Hey Toni, I don’t think it’s a bad idea that you may start, including some PTA in your videos because I think that may help solidify a lot of the truth that you bring whatever you put out information on stocks, Weatherby, AMC, or whether it be penny stocks that would just add to the arsenal for people to really for lack of a better term believe you when you speak the truth.
*TA
i want to get my money back please squeeze to $30
Tony thank you for breaking it down and everything you do to educate retail. I haven’t watched any of your videos (yet) so my apologies if this is a stupid question but do you believe that I AMC will ever squeeze and/or surpass the $72 it did a couple years ago?
Got asked this question the other day, same basic response here for ya. AMC currently still has high Short Interest and Cost to Borrow. Different stocks in this situation squeeze up every week, lower floats more easily than large floats,but it requires sustained buying pressure, usually caused by a news catalyst and/or FOMO. As long as those conditions remain in place for AMC there is a chance for a price move up. At some point after the lawsuit is over we will have to consider the dilution events that occur after. That could have some dampening effect as new shares in the float will change the short interest percentage. Will have to see how that all plays out. Last thought - If AMC is able to substantially improve the balance sheet by raising cash then it becomes less attractive to shorts. Lots of things in play. Can’t guarantee anything.
Care to update this comment now Tony? Dilution generated over 300 million. Is it enough to dissuade shorts? maybe not.
I expect more dilution. $325M maybe buys AMC grace for only 1-2 bad quarters. Writers/Actor strike is still ongoing, Dune got pushed and Taylor Swift, while helpful, is nowhere big enough to carry Q4 by itself. I am concerned after Q3 is over. What $1B films exist for Q4?