Sellers Are FINALLY Waking Up! (UK House Price Crash)
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- Опубликовано: 15 окт 2024
- UK House Prices have FALLEN at their FASTEST rate in 5 YEARS in a move that has SHOCKED many housing market commentators. The UK House Price Crash started over a year ago when interest rates soared and mortgage repayments skyrocketed, however, until now many sellers have been unwilling to accept this new reality and continued to market their properties at completely unrealistic prices.
The latest data from Rightmove suggests that sellers are now finally starting to wake up to the fact that a UK housing market crash is underway. In some areas, property prices are in freefall and serious sellers are being forced to price their properties competitively if they want to have a chance of selling their house.
Other house price indexes such as Halifax and Nationwide (that use agreed sales data instead of asking prices) show that agreed house prices have fallen by over 5% already, however, this hasn't been reflected in new listing asking prices as initial house prices have remained stubbornly high.
The last 2 months of asking price data from Rightmove suggests that sellers are now starting to be a bit more realistic, this is a good thing for a housing market that has been slowly grinding to a halt.
How much will house prices fall in 2024? Let us know your house price predictions in the comments below!
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Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
she actually appears to be well-read and educated. I just did a Google search for her name and found her webpage, I appreciate you sharing
So what I'm seeing is houses on Rightmove near me, that are not selling, especially those that are overpriced. Some people still think it's a sellers market, it's not. Some properties have been reduced and reduced and reduced again, and houses that should have traditionally sold quickly, are remaining on the market. I recently had my home valued (four separate agents) as we were considering buying a new house and we were told if we wanted any hope of selling, we should price it at barely over what we paid in Aug 2018. That's a 10% drop in real market value since last year. I'm in SE London BTW. That's the reality. Nobody can get mortgages, those that can don't want to pay over 5%. Any houses that need renovating/updating are not selling, people want ready to move into houses. In the past people didn't mind borrowing money on the mortgage to renovate, when it was 1.24%. Now, who wants to borrow extra at nearly 6% interest? That's if you can get a builder, and then the fees are astronomical, especially in London. The housing market has imploded. It's awful.
Sounds like you actually met some agents who had woken up to reality.!
@@Meeshka32 in fairness, one did try the old trick of telling me it was worth more than it was, probably in the hope I'm stupid, don't know what I'm doing and I'd market with them. Some agents are much better than others
Another problem is people use online tool to calculate the house price and then ask agents to put that price online for few months then start reducing their prices by few thousands
As an agent, in your last video I commented that we believed house prices would continue to fall well into 2024, I was shot down for that. We still believe prices (particularly for bigger properties) will continue to fall until towards the end of 2024.
and beyond
I’m in mortgages, I would say drops continue into 2025.
Ya joking arent ya there as been zero change
@@muzzer8869 there has been here on planet Earth. Not quite sure as to where you’re thinking there has "been no change".
@@jameswilkinson150 av noticed nothing all to expensive
If London and South East prices fall by 50% and the regions by 20%, that would feel about right.
Not a chance
@@hmu05366already dropped 20% in parts of Hampshire
@@hmu05366 frightened, by any chance ?
That would be awful and I'm fairly certain it's not going to happen
@@James-yl3kk Why would it be awful ? Vested interest ?
In Northern Ireland an estate agent we have been friends with for years said he has never seen it as bad as it currently is, he said that for the right property at the right price there will be plenty of viewings but almost no offers coming in. He said already he finds serious sellers ready to drop prices by 10% and still then are not selling.
It's about time there was a correction, especially in N.ireland, salaries have always lagged behind here and cost of living has now made buying a home not something that can be achieved in the short to medium term. Maybe this will help with inflation data as well, shelter being one of the more sticky areas along with food.
interesting to hear - my experience in NI is that the crazy bidding is well over but prices holding pretty firm. I do wonder if the lack of available properties in NI has something to do with it, stock levels haven’t really gone up at all in the last year.
@@simoncunningham2964 I think NI is very regional when in comes to property stock and prices pretty much like everywhere else. It looks like the builders are actually putting their prices up and the owners are putting their prices down.
I dont know if this happens everywhere else but PropertyPal have a feature that allows estate agents hide / hibernate properties for the desired period of time but the physical for sale sign stays up. This must be effecting the data and perceived stock levels?
@@glennsheppard3320 I think what is inflating the house prices people moving from ROI and mainland UK to buy a cheap property when compared to their respective locations.
We know Newtownabbey pretty well and those prices are heading for nearly 100% increase in the last 10 years.
Just wait until the distressed sellers try next year, the good times are well and truly over and not before time!
Unemployment is extremely low and the country is not in recession... so who's going to be distressed? Squeezed maybe, but not forced to sell at a loss
How deep is your head in the sand 😂
@@geoffdoo Country not in recession, do you really believe we're not ?
Regarding unemployment, figures are starting to rise and will continue to do so for a long time yet!
If you hadn't noticed already, the Uk is in economic decline since Brexit ( although I voted for it and no regret )
The world is bankrupt, the effects will rear their ugly face soon enough!
@@frog-eye1420 not deep enough to soften the blow from a 2% fixed rate mortgage to a nearly 6% deal if I’m lucky, any better ideas ?
@@geoffdoo if they as still have a fix under 3 and come to remortgage, they maybe not be selling for a loss, but they'll need to sell as they can't afford the repayments so it'll be lower than their intial asking price.
Houses are overpriced by about 60 percent.
Maybe...but they are not going to fall 60%, never.
@@kw8757 are you gypsy rose lee ?
Houses in Dresden fell by 100% in 1945...@@kw8757
Do you mean 60% over your budget?
@@SunofYork If you think house prices are going to fall 60% you are delusional, doesn't matter how desperate you are for them to fall, they're not falling 60%. Get back to me if they do, and I'll admit I was wrong, but I won't hold my breath.
House prices are already 40% down but hidden behind 30% inflation since 2020 + 10% down from 2019.
is also depends on area, a property here in cambridgeshire was up for £495,000 and sold for £475,000 so that is a 5% drop but took 2 months to sell
This is now......imagine in six or twelve months when people have amassed anywhere from £10-30,000 worth of mortgage debt ON TOP OF falling prices. Some will have gotten to the point where the price they bought the property at, has now been reached AND all the mortgage payments they have made already have been wiped out ALONG WITH having the negative equity. That is when the true nature of the recession we have been in for at least twelve months already, will rear its ugly head.
Yup, tomorrow is going to be exactly like yesterday.......until it isn't. A mechanic who works for Direct Line insurance told me yesterday his wages have never been so good...he clears £4000 per month....equivalent to £70,000 per year. This is in Manchester. There's no way inflation is going anywhere other than up.
you can see 10 to 20 % price reductions of asking prices in Hampshire every day on Rightmove 😮
I hope so, a normal familly house costs 300k in southampton 😭 70m2
Same here in Dorset, still a long way to go but it's a start.
@@Hession0Drasha You'd have to give me a free house, to live in Southampton! 🤣🤣
I live in Southampton, my home is valued £340k and it’s a drop 1% to last month 🤔 and it’s value been increasing continuously since I bought it 4 years ago
@@patrycjasz3102 you can’t really notice the price drop in a house of this value, as similar properties in your road will vary up an down 20% because of condition and interior upgrades
3 bed terrace here still going for 320.
nuts.
whi is buying?
Excellent video as always. Prices are headed one way and that’s down down down!! At least 25-30% drop on asking prices expected
Unrealistic...not going to fall that far, nowhere near.
It won’t fall that much unless unemployment goes up and people start defaulting
Currently we have a skill shortage so if you lose your job there is loads of positions to fill
Lol wil it ek Theres been zero change in a year
@@muzzer8869 already reached that level on large expensive properties, houses under 400k are only seeing small price adjustments,as these are still affordable and people need somewhere to live.
@@muzzer8869Recession just starting now. House prices could fall nationally by 20%, 15% in London by end of 2025.
Why don’t you do a video on HM land registry price index
It's disingenuous to suggest that because new seller asking prices have dropped to 362,143, that that points to the gulf between average asking prices and reality. There's nothing in there that tells us what properties make up those that went on sale this month. Maybe they were bigger houses, more expensive ones, maybe more were in London for example.
Also, isn't Rightmove the source of all terribly inaccurate data?....(apart from when said data can be spun to fit the narrative).
If someone sells because they NEED to, that really is last chance saloon. It means they cant afford their mortgage and need to downsize. Before that happens they will cut everything back to the bone, plus contact their lender to arrange maybe interest only payments or payment holidays. I don't think the proportion of people in this boat is as big as you think. Isn't it something like about 30 something % of houses even have mortgages on them? And of those, what proportion are not locked in for a few years yet, and of those left, how many are in the position that despite cutting back everything they're forced to sell. I just don't think that situation represents a large proportion of the houses on sale.
But Rightmove are always wrong...that's been the narrative on here.
Clickbait, unfortunately many people cannot afford a house, it was 285k and now 270k. Big deal.
Estate agents are still vastly overvaluing homes to get the initial business. I had three value my property recently: two were roughly in line with each other and the third was 50K (over 10%) higher. I asked her to justify the higher valuation and she mumbled something about location and well appointed, but she couldn't really explain...
Why would you want to pay mad money for a tiny box in England
Because the average person only pays £6k into the system and gets a lot for that 😂
That’s why everyone wants to come here low tax and good services
1- Taxes are not specially low in the UK.
2- Services are terrible. Maybe they used to be good, not the case anymore.
3- People coming...from third world countries.
@@albertodejuan6104 taxes are low compared to other countries of our standing hence why we have more French billionaires here then in france 😂
The services are good here a lot better then must countries, most countries you have to pay for healthcare btw and our schooling system is good it’s down to application
And actually most people coming here are from European countries the data is pretty easy to find if you look and just don’t read the Daily mail or the sun 😂
@@albertodejuan6104 tax to gdp ratio in Europe only the Irish and Swiss have a lower rate then the uk ours is 33% the average is 38.9%
@@pabloes588 that's the average, when you go above 50k is not low at all, and 50k is nothing special. Inmigrants, I think you should check the data because Europeans are not the ones coming at the moment, quite the opposite
I’m seeing a string of new builds being heavily discounted in Cambridgeshire, 1 example 4 bedroom detached with inbuilt garage, garden etc last year advertised 495 now 400 after sale falling through, there are other new builds on the same estate 3-4 bedroom detached all discounted between 315-400
Ive been saving to buy when prices are low, thinking of locking savings in a 1 year fix to make the most of the rates now... do we think the prices will be close to bottom by 12 months or am i risking missing the party entirely??
That's what I did, started 5 months ago, though still waiting on prices falling here in NI.
I deal with mining investigations for work. That is to say that we look at footings for signs of workings and we drill holes under buildings where workings are suspected. The new starts and footings inspections have pretty much stopped. So, few plots are making it to the "doing it" stage, the amount of site investigation with existing buildings is more busy than normal. I am also selling a house we bought cheap, knowing it was probably clear (a gamble), so I've got skin in the game. My gut feeling says that it needs to sell next week (one of those modern auction things) and if it doesn't we're fked. We bought the place with a tenant and the guy "used his rights" and decided not to pay rent (as per his rights). Many of the houses we are drilling are from landlords getting out of the game. It's an oversimplification to say that the market is going to crash. There is a lot of intra market activity, with people downsizing etc. Personally, I thought we were going to be screwed with covid, then I thought we were going to be screwed with all of the doom which has happened since. The "it's going to go to sht right now" turned out to be "it's got even more busy". I've spoken to some very wealthy and important people as clients and the theme seems to be "forecasts are useless, predictions are hopeless, be prepared to be double busy, or dead".
I just want this bloody house sold, before I jump straight back in. There is money to be made and there are lots of very rich people ready to cash in.
Great analysis, keep up the great work.
I think the next few months will be an interesting watch on RM as the market resets through the winter months. Baring any big props in the budget I am calling it as -8% thru 23Q4 and 24Q1....
I predict 20% drop over the next 2 years. Economic headwinds such as weak pound, interest rates, companies going bust, energy prices, higher taxes and BTL landlords selling up means prices will have to dip substantially if owners want to sell !!!
Using your own data as provided in this weeks "Shock, Horror, Prices are crashing video you quote figures that say that last month saw a 0.5% increase (which I accept was a bit of surprise and probably an anomaly ) and that this month has seen a reduction of -1.7% so over two months that's a net fall of just -1.2% and you also quote and accept that this equates to an annual price change of -1.3%. so in what world is an annual drop of -1.3% a price crash. No one is suggesting that your wrong about house prices showing a reduction (in this case 1.3% annually) but your suggestion that prices are going to fall massively is not being borne out by the actual market. I know that' your hoping for a massive price drop due to your own circumstances but that looks very unlikely.
Where you should be focusing your attention to make these videos more accurate and more useful is on how houses will not retain their current value due to inflation which is a lot more likely and will therefore make them more affordable (Not cheaper though) in the future. To explain , a house at £500,000 now may well lose lets say for arguments sake 3% in cash terms over the next 12 months so could be selling for £485,000 in a years time which is only a 3% price drop however if Inflation is at lets say 5% then that house should have been selling for £525,000 so at £485,000 its "value" will have dropped by 7.6% but that is value not price so your premise of a "Price Crash" is both alarmist and inaccurate.
I don't know what your background is Mr Honest Money but my suggestion if you are serious about understanding house prices for now and in the future is that you view some of the other videos on here from qualified financial advisors who explain in much better detail than I have the difference between houses dropping in value against dropping in price.
Its going to be some considerable time before there is any opportunity for people to make money again on housing as an investment but you are wrong to suggest sellers should panic and lose money that they perhaps cannot afford to and its wrong to suggest buyers should not pay the right price for a property and then cause them to miss out when someone else comes along and does pay the right price and there are plenty out there who will to get the house they want.
Just to be clear I have no connection to any related industry nor am I looking to sell my house either now or in the foreseeable future so unlike yourself I have no ulterior motive in trying to influence the market.
Rightmove only asking prices. Always go down at the end of the year.
Check the most reliable Land Registry.
Last August 23. risen by 0.2% compared to the previous year.
Make a video about their prices Up or down! Crash or Not ...
Too many sellers still looking for yesterday's money today
2%? lol they need to drop about 40% for them to be in line from 25 years ago compared to wages...
We can't put faith in any housing price stats. Think how many people have spent tens of thousands (or more) on renovations these last few years. A house that has had 50k spent on it should be worth at least 50k more than it was previously priced at. In some cases this is a significant percentage increase. It therefore only follows that house prices will go higher over time (other than in times of recession, high unemployment etc).
Volume of house sales, building starts, net immigration are the key factors.
The one think i would challenge is that you mention a lot of sellers arent serious at the moment. You also mention that there are alot of new properties on the market. Xan we really take those new properties seriously? If not theres only a few serious sellers, are those enough to meet the demand?
It’s nigh on impossible to get a mortgage these days so people have no choice but to reduce, especially if their circumstances have changed and they’re desperate to sell.
We needed a 60% deposit in May and without my wife’s parents we’d have had no chance.
Even so, the mortgage product we have no longer exists and that was hardly a bargain.
Sad times.
Rightmove,more propaganda than a political party,their market assessment is really a joke
These guys are real crooks, don't believe anything they say, 100% vested interests...
Asking prices have to come down. Actual sold prices went up 25% in 2 years to mid-22. Asking prices continued till rise at that trajectory until mid-23. If every house has 10% knocked off its asking price actual sold prices won’t be affected
I plan on to buy in Manchester so I am following this closely.
This channel is all over the place.one week its this the next week its that confusing.
Think that is more a indication of house price reporting,it’s totally confusing for the uninitiated
@richardlongmuir8348 I study the market in my own area.and house prices have been going down for the last 2 years,considerably. Its obvious that there's a crash occurring. It's not rocket science even for people like you who are 'initiated'
@@stringer-ik1pc Couldn’t comment as I don’t where your local market is,certainly the South West is and has been seeing significant reverses
Trust me Sir. The way rents have gone up I would never sell for the price i was selling a year ago, never mind less. Check it out. If rents are up prices cant crash, especially in places lile London, Oxford and cambridge where cash buyers have deep pockets. Rent is litteraly going to the moon now. I hope you re not renting a place anywhere close by buds🤠
Rents are starting to come down and property's being reduced now in Bristol
Talking about prices going up or down 1% is irrelevant. The market has been going sideways. Eventually sellers will meet prices buyers are willing to consider, and the new direction will firmly begin.
'You're not a serious seller unless you're desperate and forced to sell' 😂. So by that logic you're not a serious buyer unless you take advantage of someone else's misery and rob their house off them due to their financial problems. What a clown. At this point, I only watch to see this guys mental gymnastics to fool everybody that this imaginary crash is due to unfold.
Have to agree, the guy is desperate. He sold up hoping to buy back when prices crashed but his fees, rent etc will cost way more than anything he's saved.
Do you think I care that your house will lose 30% of its value if you bought it for 80K and now you're asking me to pay half a mil for it?
Have to reduce prices FAAASSST to prevent loss. Best to reduce house price by at LEAST 70% to prevent further loss!
start making a lot of money now so maybe your can buy on the cheap in one or two years. Its more than ever time to start a cashflow business or a business to stack some Queens ( or King ) notes..
I am a seller. I have a tracker mortgage.
My mortgage at 5.25% is 1/4 the price of a rental.
Who are these distressed sellers ?
So if you're not distressed then nobody is? What sort of logic is that?
Same logic that say's everyone is a distressed seller.
@@rustyshackleford8043 nobodies claimed that.
I think what he means is if you are out there and selling then you are in a bad place compered to 6 months a go.
The vast majority of people won't have as much equity in their property as you. We've got a lot of equity in our property and we still won't be paying anything like 25% of the rental value when we renew our mortgage in the coming months. It will be more like 60-80%.
Wake me up when it drops by 40%
Shock?
Let’s face it. You have been talking about house prices crashes for 8 months in most of your video. And in the last 8 months did u see the crashes you are expecting?
Loooovely 😊
Everybody who wants prices to drop- only want them to drop until they buy.... FFS 😂
The latest UK House Price Index data published by HM Land Registry (HMLR) for September 2023 show that average UK house price annual inflation was negative 0.1% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to September 2023.
Even with this mini crash my east London house is worth about 25% more than in 2020. Meanwhile the rent went up 35% on this property in the last year so why this rush to sell lol? I wanted to sell a year ago for 850k when the rent was about 4k and no buyers. Now rent is 5.5k and i would not even consider selling for 850k. Cheers guys
Negative equity coming soon to you buddy...cheers!
You’ll find out how much it’s worth when you try and sell it. You could probably make more money in gilts than the rental yield at an £850k “valuation” unless you’re getting more than 4K a month for it?
You greedy bastard increased the rent from 4k to 5.5k in a year?
Looks like govt about to fiddle around with stamp duty.
source?
Won't make any difference right now...
@@tourrhythmgolf-3to1 seem my link got deleted. It’s from LBC
CrossRail in West London is not helping my cause for property reductions 🙁
*I FINK FINGS MUNF ON MUNF*
Swings and round abouts mate. So doom and gloom. If i was you i would buy a house asap. Due to end of 2024 prices are going to be on the rise again. Over 10 percent by 2026. Get on the market
You change your mind every two minutes 😂😂
This vid hasn’t aged well now inflation is crashing down and lenders are slashing mortgage rates for new borrowers.
This guy is inadvertently becoming a contrarian commentator - Everything he says the opposite happens, sometimes less than 24 hours later 😂
Inflation isn’t crashing. The recent drop in inflation is artificial due to CPI taking into account the drop in energy prices that happened the month prior. Actual service sector inflation and shelter are increasing and are likely to increase rapidly.
Yippee
Why do you strive to be negative. Everything you say is negative not watched many of your videos as a bit dull at best.
There is not going to be a crash! 10% is not a crash. The number of people looking for a home outweighs demand. Banks are not lending.
Save your money and get a better job, thats it!
Supply ‘n’ demand will dictate house prices,
We all have to live somewhere
Only half the truth. Supply and demand will drive the price to the limit but it’s interest rate that dictates the level of the limit.
Is this a parody account? Demand becomes irrelevant if you can't afford something
You keep on believing this, disregard the guff!
@@somehuman6300Banks, pension funds and wealthy individuals can afford anything.
Nope , watch Hong Kong shows just a drop even with the lack of properties.
Key thing is government intervention that is the reason prices can go up and down .
The only people this matters to are people who are desperate to sell. Of which there are very few. So people will sit on their properties.
"experts" talk on all of this as though the world is the same as 2008. Which it isn't, in any capacity.
OOoOooOOooooOOooOOh NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO not 1.3% 😂
In Scotland properties below £250K, are NOT dropping. Specially for cheaper properties below £100K buyers are still paying 5-10% ABOVE home report value, depends on region.
Try to grasp it people: London is not a UK, it is just a city in UK. Whatever happens there doesnt mean in the rest of the country is the same. By the way Londoners maybe you shouldn’t prostitute yourself for russian dirty money for so many years, as YES they did spinned your economy buying those ridiculously priced properties FOR F…K YEARS.