SHOWING HOW QUARANTINE CAN HELP DURING EPIDEMICS: COVID-19 and Math models with a card deck | ND

During times like these, you might find yourself asking things like "why is quarantine important?" The goal of this video is to go about showing how quarantine can help during epidemics by providing intuition with an accessible mathematical model. With the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic, I thought it would be a good time to present some math models with a card deck that help motivate participating in quarantines when you have been exposed to a virus and/or are contagious. For those interested, the reasoning brought up in this video is motivated by a mathematical reduction of infectious diseases to a SIR model dynamical system. By using a slight various on the naming convention of the SIR populations and instituting some spacial rules to one of our transitions we present a simple model for Contagiousness in both one of the worst cases (The "Random Life" model) and in the case of a quarantine in order to provide intuition for how quarantine can help during epidemics and for why quarantine is important and can help flatten the curve
Anyhow, I hope you find this video a bit interesting, but aside from the math make sure you are taking care of yourself! It's important, not only for your own personal health, but for the health of other people that are in your life and apart of your community!!
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More Medical and Public Health information about COVID-19
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Osmosis AMA for COVID-19: • COVID-19 | Live Ask-Me...
CDC COVID-19 resources: www.cdc.gov/co...
WHO COVID-19 resources: www.who.int/em...
Coronavirus Is Our Future TED Talk: • Coronavirus Is Our Fut...
Dr. Mike's Video on Cornavirus: • Doctor Fact-Checks Med...
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More Mathematics Principals at play and the Statistics around COVID-19:
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3Blue1Brown's Exponential Growth and Epidemics video: • Exponential growth and...
John Hopkins University COVID-19 tracking map: coronavirus.jh...
Modeling the Spread of COVID-19: systems.jhu.ed...
The Kermack-McKendrick Model (A SIR model for the number of people infected with a contagious illness in a closed population over time) : mathworld.wolf...
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Additional Spacial SIR models you can do with CARDS
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1. Factoring in Death:
Either the "Random Life" model or the Quarantine model can be set up to factor in the possibility of loosing a patient to the disease. For simplicity, let spades be the suit that corresponds to death after transitioning from Contagious to Non-Contagious. Make sure the black suit cards are shuffled and faced down off to the side so that when you transition from Contagious you will randomly (50/50) get either a Non-Contagious survivor or a Death. When a Death is played remove that card from the grid of cards and continue the iteration with one less card.
2. Factoring in Re-Infection and Immunity (Easiest with two different backed decks and when n=2):
Select a time interval more than 1 time step and call it n. After a card is marked as not contagious, if that card is adjacent to a contagious card before n times steps have passed then it will become contagious again. If it does not become contagious again at the nth time step replace it with the second type of cards used to denote that it is immune and cannot be infected and contagious again.
There are a ton of different ways you can alter the SIR model! If you have any cool ideas let me know!!
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The flatten the curve graphic was sourced from wikicommons here is the CC-BY-SA citation:
"English: Flattening the curve" by Siouxsie Wiles and Toby Morris is licensed under CC BY 2.0. (creativecommon...) The original gif was cut into frames to make the transition slower to fit during the commentary of the video.
#CHALK #DynamicalSystems #Quarantine

[@sadface7457]

Can we get a quatine literature recommendation? I feel you know some of the top shelf stuff.

[@CHALKND]

Haha, well honestly, I don’t have a ton of experience with the literature in differential equations (which is generally the field where these and similar SIR models come up). I just made this video because it provides a demo that: 1. Is relatively accessible. 2. Allows for generalization and experimentation. And 3. Provides a bit of intuition on how quarantine can affect the spread of infectious disease. If you’re looking for resources for more technical work here, it’s not super fanciful, but, I would start by looking into the basics which the MAA periodicals do a relatively good job of summarizing and introducing a lot of the structure that influenced the development of this video. www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

[@sadface7457]

@@CHALKND Wasnt thinking necessarily about disease propagation. Just anything that you find interesting. I am rather fond of this channel and think it good to ask. Keep safe.

[@DrPhipster]

Hi Nathan, thanks for the interesting video! Your content is awesome, and making it relevant to ongoing topics lets me forward math-y videos like yours to people that don‘t usually have a lot of contact with math in their everyday lives. Keep it up!

[@CHALKND]

Thanks! I’m glad you enjoy what I’m creating!! 😁