Putin's 'Mystical' Nuclear Rationality (Main channel) ruclips.net/video/qa8MQWNek_8/видео.html The Truth Behind Putin's Nuclear Blackmail ruclips.net/video/qciXakJceI8/видео.html Support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB
Question: Do you think there is a possibility that tRump could turn on Putin once he's in office in an effort to "go down in history"? I'm not so sure tRump has alliances, he either owns or is owned.
Muggeridge once said that dictators and tyranny needs to constantly assert their might and resolution with an arithmetic progression of horror. Therefore I agree, Putin is in a spiral where his threats must become more extreme, however, there comes the moment when his threats are so maximalist that he must either let actions follow, or... not.
Speaking for me and me only, I have gone beyond being afraid of Putler's nuclear threats. Yes, I was terrified at the beginning of the war (though I still maintained enough composure to stand firm in my support of Ukraine). Don't get me wrong, I still get angry - livid in fact - when he or his cronies in RuSSian state media threaten us (us - as in the collective west) with such destruction, but now I'm just too tired of this rhetoric to actually be afraid. I am no longer afraid of Putler's nuclear rhetoric because if he was to actually make good on those threats, then A: There's nothing I as a citizen can do about it. B: It would most likely be over before I knew what had happened and C: It would mean not just the end of myself, but also Putler. I'm not sure if it's a sort of weariness settling in, or it's the incessant threatening rhetoric I - and many besides me - have had to endure, but at this point I simply cannot muster the energy to be scared. This does not weaken my resolve to support Ukraine in any way I am able to - nor to stand up to this thug, this bully who has the audacity to hold us ransom because we stand up against what is morally reprehensible in support of a courageous people defending themselves, their democracy and their right to self-determination (and not just theirs - they are most definitely defending our rights as well) - in the face of barbarity and a complete and utter disrespect of not just the rule of law, but civilised behaviour. Regardless, I have no time nor energy to spare for the mad despot in Moscow making his threats. I will not be scared. I will not be moved from what is a moral obligation that was bestowed on me on the 24th of February 2022 and which was cast in steel by the atrocities in Bucha and Irpin only to be followed by countless other such atrocities. I may not be able to go and fight for these my beliefs, I may not be able to contribute to the defence of Ukraine and it's brave people as much as I would like to - but I'll be damned if I'll be scared threats from the likes of Putler. Slava Ukraini! Heroyem slava! Solidarity from Sweden!
Speaking for me and me only, I have gone beyond being afraid of Putler's nuclear threats. Yes, I was terrified at the beginning of the conflict (though I still maintained enough composure to stand firm in my support of Ukraine). Don't get me wrong, I still get angry - livid in fact - when he or his cronies in RuSSian state media threaten us (us - as in the collective west) with such destruction, but now I'm just too tired of this rhetoric to actually be afraid. I am no longer afraid of Putler's nuclear rhetoric because if he was to actually make good on those threats, then A: There's nothing I as a citizen can do about it. B: It would most likely be over before I knew what had happened and C: It would mean not just the end of myself, but also Putler. I'm not sure if it's a sort of weariness settling in, or it's the incessant threatening rhetoric I - and many besides me - have had to endure, but at this point I simply cannot muster the energy to be scared. This does not weaken my resolve to support Ukraine in any way I am able to - nor to stand up to this thug, this bully who has the audacity to hold us ransom because we stand up against what is morally reprehensible in support of a courageous people defending themselves, their democracy and their right to self-determination (and not just theirs - they are most definitely defending our rights as well) - in the face of barbarity and a complete and utter disrespect of not just the rule of law, but civilised behaviour. Regardless, I have no time nor energy to spare for the mad despot in Moscow making his threats. I will not be scared. I will not be moved from what is a moral obligation that was bestowed on me on the 24th of February 2022 and which was cast in steel by the atrocities in Bucha and Irpin only to be followed by countless other such atrocities. I may not be able to go and fight for these my beliefs, I may not be able to contribute to the defence of Ukraine and it's brave people as much as I would like to - but I'll be damned if I'll be scared by threats from the likes of Putler. Slava Ukraini! Heroyem slava! Solidarity from Sweden!
only 'proper states' have rights. america, china, russia... everyone else is only a satellite to be dominated, pillaged, invaded - even traded. 19th century imperial slash modern russian thinking.
If the use of ATACMs and Storm Shadows was "futile" and has no effect on the course of the war, then Putin would not need to issue threats designed to deter their use: he can't credibly have it both ways. Moreover, people of his ilk (e.g. Trump) always accuse their opponents of what they themselves have already done or plan to do. In this instance Putin accuses the West of "internationalising" the war, when he himself has brought troops from North Korea into the war.
It’s consistent to believe the weapons are futile to the outcome of the war, but also harmful for Russia. Putin thinks Russia will win either way, but now it’s going to be more costly - many more soldiers and officers will die, more materiel will be destroyed, but he thinks it just delays the inevitable. I would like him to be wrong, and I think he is, but that seems to be his thinking or at least his message.
This is his dilemma. "Western weapons are a provocation." *Ukraine gets Western weapons* "Western weapons have no effect." He's been bleating the same garbage for three years, because if he admits Western weapons ARE a threat, he looks like the pathetic weakling he is.
My dear friend Vlad. So nice to see you wearing a sweater rather than a hospital gown. I do hope it's a sign that your health is improving. Lots of love from Canada 🍁 🇨🇦
I grew up during the cold war. And I stopped worrying about Russian nuclear Armageddon a long time ago. If it happens, it happens. But we cannot allow Russian threats to prevent us from defending what we know is right.
Thank you! I remember exercises in bunker in the 80s. That was not a thing. Just life. My kids don't know that and don't want to know it. Time for teaching our kids how global life can be.
If Putin wants to open up the box of "I can strike you if I am struck by your weapons even if you weren't the one that used them on me" then we should revisit all the damage done over the years by all those mountains of Soviet military gear that got sold to terror groups on the black market in the 90s. Maybe sue for damages.
Not even just the black market. The Soviets loved shovelling their crappy wares to anyone they thought barely capable of pointing it the right direction.
Yes I am freaking out but not by putins threat but by the weak and don’t escalate response of the western (my) leaders! I still have the words from Timothy Snyder ringing in my ears “ the peril of slowness” thank you for your analysis!
Yep. Russia sabotaged European satellites, various kinds of infrastructure, murdered EU citizens on EU soil, habitually inflicts war crimes on it's neighbors - and all we have is strongly worded letters. When will the appeasement end? It's clearly not working, and history suggests it's unlikely to.
@@karinfend2980 This is all conjecture but if you've been watching how badly the russian military has been performing over the last 1001 days, he doesn't have the feared russian military that it was made out to be before the invasion. They are trying to use tanks from the 70's and earlier and their manpower is severely diminished. Early in the war when putin was saber rattling he received a call from the U.S. that convinced him that we know where he is at any moment and that using a nuclear weapon would mean his death as well. So far it's worked. Is he at a point where he want to commit suicide? We don't know but the notion that he possesses the same capability of the ussr isn't something that's going to work on the west.
@@karinfend2980It’s been three years. At some point Russians will have to put up or shut up. lol They are not going to talk is into being afraid. It will NEVER happen. We do not fear Russia.
There is nothing remotely complex here. Russia must withdraw from Ukraine back to 1991 borders. They are the aggressor. What is the mystery of Ukraine defending itself?
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u he said the opposite. The only recognized borders are those of 1991. Territories will be reclaimed by negotiations with russia when it will sober up.
@@lynleybreeze3283 Україна не має стільки сил, щоб зі зброєю в руках дійти до кордонів 91-го року, - Зеленський Use this quote, it is in all major Ukrainian media, it is from an interview with Fox News as I understand it.
I just want to also definitively say that ATACMS is considered a short range tactical missile. Not a long range missile like the media keeps saying in their ignorance.
if he thinks this should give more talking points to people who dont want Ukraine to have more weapons..then it has to have the opposite effect because it shows they NEED more arms to then keep the fight in Ukraine territory so they are over geared and can take on Russia there
This is Putin trying to undermine the key international principle that if you see a nation being attacked by an aggressor, you have the right to help the defending nation. Ultimately, this doesn't even involve providing that defending nation with advanced missiles and your permission to fire them at military targets in the aggressor nation. If you surrender on the point of providing any type of weapon, the aggressor can turn around and try to blackmail you by saying that providing even further basic aid to the defender, like more bullets or medical supplies, can be treated as an act of war. Nations need to figure out what type of international order they require for their own long-term safety, and provide aid in accordance with that requirement.
this is true, putler is a bully. He attacks His so called brothers the Ukrainians. Why because he doesnt like their ability to choose a path putin doesnt agree with . So he gets his nose bloodied and now cries " why meeeee!"
Putin is sailing very close to the wind... we don't need to wait for the yellow-haired buffoon to take over. If Putin wants escalation we can oblige him right now
Yeh but he's trying to scare the average person in the West to put pressure on their government to stop supporting Ukraine. The logic is that if we keep helping Ukraine (provoking Russia) this will lead to nukes flying
He knows and every general know, but these messages are towards to people in the west who doesnt know coz in western values we should listen to our people
It's current events, the news will cover the topic eventually - either because they want to, or because they'll be forced to after accusations of hiding or obscuring information
Vlad, your commentary on algorithm-driven content is thought-provoking. A video dedicated to unpacking what 'the algorithm' entails and its societal effects would be highly valuable.
Putin's nuclear blackmail is exhausting. Frankly I think that if the day ever comes where Putin really is serious about using a nuclear weapon we might not be able to tell since these threats occur on what seems to be a daily basis. Be well Vlad.
I love listening to your common sense and well-thought-out take on current geopolitics Vlad, and saying that, I think you'd make a superb presidential adviser. You're also looking and sounding a lot better than you did last week, keep it up.
The normalization of using nuclear weapons could be the worst consequence of Russia's use of them. There is a fragile feeling that these weapons are "taboo", but an external agent using them might make scruples go away all around the world. Russia x Ukraine is not the only military/war situation envolving present and future nuclear powers.
Yes. This is the primary and foremost consideration. Not that mutually assured destruction is found ineffective. Rather we add more realms into the potential use of nuclear weaponry that becomes acceptable. Which before was considered a crazy position because of potential for escalation. To normalize it would require new boundaries and norms. The other consideration is nuclear being used as a all encompassing deterrent. Because if the situation continues with Russia and it fails to work as a deterrent that brings into question other states hoping to gain or use nuclear as such a deterrent. And again brings us back to re-thinking the mutually assured destruction philosophy as a balance.
It's so strange to think how I reacted in the opening weeks of this war. I went through a couple of weeks of genuine terror, thinking that a nuclear war was a likely prospect. It was almost as if it was a stage I was going through and despite all my knowledge and interest in nuclear issues and the Cold War, my brain turned completely irrational. When I emerged from it I felt a lot more resilient and mentally strong. To the point where I can spot the pattern in Putin's gaslighting.
How do you know it’s gaslighting? Russia has legitimate rocket and ballistic missile technology. All they have to do is test their nuclear warheads and make adjustments, and Putin could severely damage Europe if not the U.S.
I came of age at the beginning the Reagan Era. Back then President Reagan talked tough toward Party Chairmans Leonid Brezhnev, Yuri Andropov, Chernenko, and Mikhail Gorbachev. Reagan would know how to handle Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and bring the conflict to victory without resorting to nukes
I don't think he looked calm and composed. He looked like a man who understands he's perilously close to his "safe" escalatory limits. The use of that missile and his speech engenders in me not fear but frustration at the relatively passive response to his nuclear brinkmanship.
Putin must not be allowed to bully, bluster, and lie his way to some kind of victory in Ukraine. This is principally for the sake of Ukrainians, but it is also for the sake of his other neighbours and potential victims.
@user1qaz2wsx3edc The Russian has invaded murdered and conquered from Europe to the Far East via the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia is the biggest empire in the world and was invading, murdering and exploiting before the US existed and before the British started building their empire. Russia is still actively trying to expand its empire. If you hate imperialism, you should hate Russia.
I am surprised by your choice of word, 'hygge'. I wasnt expecting to find a danish word in the middle of an English sentence lol. But I agree, it does look rather 'hyggeligt' with his attire.
Vlad, it's so clear that you really xare about your audience in the way you explain things. Thank you for your compassion in breaking these down for us.
They didn't join the war. There is no evidence of them joining the war. You need to understand that the west is best at propaganda. And you are gullible.
In P:s shoes I would also look composed - it’s vital for him to appear unperturbed. An old mafia boss and a seasoned liar knows how to act. He is probably very angry and not happy at all. I value freedom more than anything and would hate to see Western leaders allowing P to walk all over us in a fight between evil/wrong and what is right. Freedom comes at a cost and our job is to pay.
@@andreisopon4615If you check channels like the british BBC, you realize, that hundreds of „accounts“ are posting fearmongering comments about how „we westeners“ should pressure our leaders to give in on Russias demands. Pathetic.
Well, you personaly shouldn't. Well, until Russia announces where it's going to hit. Putin said Russia is going to announce it beforehand, so you can evac
@@WretchedEgg528 You know how that goes, right? Do you really and rationally think an attack on another European country would help Russia in any way possible? Could it not be the exact opposite scenario?
Brezhnev tried the same against Mao. This running threat of nukes shows Putin doesn't know how to play poker. You don't show your hand until all the cards are dealt.
Putin's nuclear arsenal is only valuable if it is considered to be a viable threat. That is certainly something the Western allies are analyzing. Given the poor performance of Russian conventional weapons systems, the viability of their nuclear arsenal is far from a given. The West (especially the US) must immediately supply air defense systems that can better handle this expanded threat.
It's funny that it was a scare tactic for us, the people. I told a bunch of my co-workers, and they didn't even give a shit. Even when i said icbms are what usually carry nukes. They shrugged their shoulders and continued on lol.
Vlad... you never fail to surprise me with your brilliant insights. I sure hope those who are making the decisions have someone as sharp as you on the inside.
It's a sad thing that the powerful all over the world started to believe their own propaganda. It says something about the human condition. How easily we slip into delusional ideas when they provide comfort to our ego. Especially in the powerful, when their bodies grow frail with age and their dominance feels like it's waning.
Putin was never clever enough to be a good chess player but he is a good poker player who is excellent at identifying and playing upon the weaknesses of his opponents.
I think China is the key to shrinking Russia's confidence. We have relied too much on Chinese industrial manufacturing, and fed its militarial sector. Disengaging from china economically would be a good strategic move. As china is bankrolling Russia and supplying technology, reducing our reliance could halt that progress.
Two problems with Putin's strategy:1) Any attack on a Western military "object" would be an article 5 trigger; 2) I doubt the use of an ICBM is a meaningful to most people because we are not military experts, so it becomes an escalation that perhaps is going to be hard to distinguish from any of the other threats he has made-he has been threatening us for nearly three years. Russia has lost up to a million soldiers through death and injury, it's army is degraded, and it is the largest country in the world with an economy on a par with Italy- other than nuclear weapons, which he can use, the threats ring largely hollow.
It's nothing more than a predictable checker move on a checker board. Notice I didn't say chess-move. Putin isn't that sophisticated. He is absolutely transparent also.
So if one takes this stance of Putin and turns it upside down or inside out: The US or Uk could on behalf of Ukraine attack North Korea or Iran since they provided weapons to Russia... Hmmm... Interesting talk tonight Vlad! Thank´s a lot again - you make me think more in new circles than i´m used to... 🤣 Take care and enjoy!🤗
@@mrpocock Not sure if i understand or if i wasn´t clear enough. If Russia thinks that they can attack a country that delivered weapons to Ukraine and at the same time is cofighting with North Korea against Ukraine. Why couldn´t one think that Ukraine or one of their suppliers attacked one of Russias suppliers? Of course i think that this an absurd idea - but Putin seems to think that this is relevant! 😦
@@thomash3716 That's not how these kinds of arguments work. Everything is post-hoc. Russia doesn't want Ukraine to be helped. So they say anybody supporting Ukraine should fear attack by Russia. Russia wants support from Iran, so Russia says that anybody attacking Iran is acting illegitimately and dangerously. There is no point trying to look at what Russia says as if it was a good faith debate. That's not what it is or how it is supposed to function.
Question: Lets assume the nuclear risk is 99%. Currently, with what option does Putin leave the West, to which it can avoid nuclear war without also surrendering everything (this would encompass our nations, our democracies, our civil liberties) to Russia?
This missile is a bit stronger than the other ones Russia has and has lugged at Ukraine, but isn't all that destructive without the nuclear bomb payload. The main characteristic is that it can carry a nuclear bomb, but so can the Kinzal which they already used (but not many know).
Honestly think he's going too far now with these threats especially really targeting the UK lately. even my gran who sadly is a daily mail reader but said to me "he's a stupid little man" putin forgets we went through ww2.
Thank you, Vlad, as always, for sharing your thoughts! Concerning the nuclear risk: IMHO, as long as China doesn't want Putin to use nukes, he very likely won't. However, you seem to have much more energy today than you had in the last months. I really hope that is the case! Thank you so much for your work! 🌻
Another way to look at the missile attack on Dinipro is that that they have run out of other missiles and are now using the ones used to deliver nuclear warheads (which are no longer manufactured) as it is unlikely that west will nuke ruSSia.
Putin's 'Mystical' Nuclear Rationality (Main channel)
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The Truth Behind Putin's Nuclear Blackmail
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Question: Do you think there is a possibility that tRump could turn on Putin once he's in office in an effort to "go down in history"? I'm not so sure tRump has alliances, he either owns or is owned.
Muggeridge once said that dictators and tyranny needs to constantly assert their might and resolution with an arithmetic progression of horror. Therefore I agree, Putin is in a spiral where his threats must become more extreme, however, there comes the moment when his threats are so maximalist that he must either let actions follow, or... not.
Report War Crimes and Espionage: Axis of Evil /Communist MAGA: Cease and desist malicious use of AI, energy weapons and satellites:, death threats
Speaking for me and me only, I have gone beyond being afraid of Putler's nuclear threats. Yes, I was terrified at the beginning of the war (though I still maintained enough composure to stand firm in my support of Ukraine). Don't get me wrong, I still get angry - livid in fact - when he or his cronies in RuSSian state media threaten us (us - as in the collective west) with such destruction, but now I'm just too tired of this rhetoric to actually be afraid. I am no longer afraid of Putler's nuclear rhetoric because if he was to actually make good on those threats, then A: There's nothing I as a citizen can do about it. B: It would most likely be over before I knew what had happened and C: It would mean not just the end of myself, but also Putler.
I'm not sure if it's a sort of weariness settling in, or it's the incessant threatening rhetoric I - and many besides me - have had to endure, but at this point I simply cannot muster the energy to be scared. This does not weaken my resolve to support Ukraine in any way I am able to - nor to stand up to this thug, this bully who has the audacity to hold us ransom because we stand up against what is morally reprehensible in support of a courageous people defending themselves, their democracy and their right to self-determination (and not just theirs - they are most definitely defending our rights as well) - in the face of barbarity and a complete and utter disrespect of not just the rule of law, but civilised behaviour.
Regardless, I have no time nor energy to spare for the mad despot in Moscow making his threats. I will not be scared. I will not be moved from what is a moral obligation that was bestowed on me on the 24th of February 2022 and which was cast in steel by the atrocities in Bucha and Irpin only to be followed by countless other such atrocities.
I may not be able to go and fight for these my beliefs, I may not be able to contribute to the defence of Ukraine and it's brave people as much as I would like to - but I'll be damned if I'll be scared threats from the likes of Putler.
Slava Ukraini! Heroyem slava!
Solidarity from Sweden!
Speaking for me and me only, I have gone beyond being afraid of Putler's nuclear threats. Yes, I was terrified at the beginning of the conflict (though I still maintained enough composure to stand firm in my support of Ukraine). Don't get me wrong, I still get angry - livid in fact - when he or his cronies in RuSSian state media threaten us (us - as in the collective west) with such destruction, but now I'm just too tired of this rhetoric to actually be afraid. I am no longer afraid of Putler's nuclear rhetoric because if he was to actually make good on those threats, then A: There's nothing I as a citizen can do about it. B: It would most likely be over before I knew what had happened and C: It would mean not just the end of myself, but also Putler.
I'm not sure if it's a sort of weariness settling in, or it's the incessant threatening rhetoric I - and many besides me - have had to endure, but at this point I simply cannot muster the energy to be scared. This does not weaken my resolve to support Ukraine in any way I am able to - nor to stand up to this thug, this bully who has the audacity to hold us ransom because we stand up against what is morally reprehensible in support of a courageous people defending themselves, their democracy and their right to self-determination (and not just theirs - they are most definitely defending our rights as well) - in the face of barbarity and a complete and utter disrespect of not just the rule of law, but civilised behaviour.
Regardless, I have no time nor energy to spare for the mad despot in Moscow making his threats. I will not be scared. I will not be moved from what is a moral obligation that was bestowed on me on the 24th of February 2022 and which was cast in steel by the atrocities in Bucha and Irpin only to be followed by countless other such atrocities.
I may not be able to go and fight for these my beliefs, I may not be able to contribute to the defence of Ukraine and it's brave people as much as I would like to - but I'll be damned if I'll be scared by threats from the likes of Putler.
Slava Ukraini! Heroyem slava!
Solidarity from Sweden!
Funny, only Russia has rights.
... no they don't 😂
@@FeralzenBut they think they do.
only 'proper states' have rights. america, china, russia... everyone else is only a satellite to be dominated, pillaged, invaded - even traded. 19th century imperial slash modern russian thinking.
@@iris1224wwadNot the case at all
Indeed, Marian. It's the extreme of self-righteousness.
Putin offended by everthing but ashamed of nothing
Simple art of the deal. His highball is just threatening to destroy the west with missiles.
I know a lot more people who can ne described that way
Why is this so similar to typical wokist mindset?
@@toxic-o1uyou mean the MAGA mindset
@@toxic-o1uBecause this is just projection. It is our "leaders" who are petty children. Putin is Ex KGB, a different mindset entirely.
If the use of ATACMs and Storm Shadows was "futile" and has no effect on the course of the war, then Putin would not need to issue threats designed to deter their use: he can't credibly have it both ways. Moreover, people of his ilk (e.g. Trump) always accuse their opponents of what they themselves have already done or plan to do. In this instance Putin accuses the West of "internationalising" the war, when he himself has brought troops from North Korea into the war.
good point
I wish more people brought up this sort of reasoning, Putin sprinted across the very red lines he now screams about.
It’s consistent to believe the weapons are futile to the outcome of the war, but also harmful for Russia. Putin thinks Russia will win either way, but now it’s going to be more costly - many more soldiers and officers will die, more materiel will be destroyed, but he thinks it just delays the inevitable.
I would like him to be wrong, and I think he is, but that seems to be his thinking or at least his message.
This is his dilemma. "Western weapons are a provocation." *Ukraine gets Western weapons* "Western weapons have no effect."
He's been bleating the same garbage for three years, because if he admits Western weapons ARE a threat, he looks like the pathetic weakling he is.
Not a word he says is ever true.
My dear friend Vlad. So nice to see you wearing a sweater rather than a hospital gown. I do hope it's a sign that your health is improving. Lots of love from Canada 🍁 🇨🇦
Thank you so so much for such a lovely comment!!
The sweater has become a great look! 👌
I grew up during the cold war. And I stopped worrying about Russian nuclear Armageddon a long time ago. If it happens, it happens. But we cannot allow Russian threats to prevent us from defending what we know is right.
Exactly that.
Either we have values and stand for them, or we should stop pretending.
Also, at this point is just plain boring, red line this nuclear war that, whatever you say grandpa, now crawl back to your bunker.
Best words ever!
Thank you! I remember exercises in bunker in the 80s. That was not a thing. Just life. My kids don't know that and don't want to know it. Time for teaching our kids how global life can be.
I hope that trump grows a spine and gathers some courage. Last time he was in the Oval Office he was Putin's boy.
Giving in to blackmail will lead to more blackmail.
So true. Bullies know this well.
Poor Putler is running out of lies and lives.
and lines
It's proper title is Oligorc tZar Vladolff Putinka the Insignifcant👑👴🏼🤏, Supreme Leader of the ruZZky orc horde.
@firestartor Говори про зеля наркомана!!! 😏😏😏😆
The ROC church, a subsidiary of the FSB, just made Stalin a Saint.
Sorry,Put-in busy making Nato and Zekinky the wimp'humble .
Pretty sure Iranian missiles and drones, NK soldiers and shells and Chinese technology and money made it global.
Not to mention literally taking over or trying to take over a whole row of African countries for resources spent on the war.
Transnational crime and terrorism
Putin has sprinted across the very red lines he himself whines about, somehow ATACMS is "too far" but 10k troops from a foreign army is "fine"
We should help Ukraine more. Trying to scare us into capitulating.
If Putin wants to open up the box of "I can strike you if I am struck by your weapons even if you weren't the one that used them on me" then we should revisit all the damage done over the years by all those mountains of Soviet military gear that got sold to terror groups on the black market in the 90s. Maybe sue for damages.
Not even just the black market. The Soviets loved shovelling their crappy wares to anyone they thought barely capable of pointing it the right direction.
Russia and Putin deny the p0s. They live in 1924 with Stalin's Spirit.
Putin's reasoning is insane.
So is he
Why?
Always has been
Just to be clear, reasoning is usually sane, but you can end up with drastically different conclusions based on your starting prepositions
Behind it all Putin is a buffoon
Yes I am freaking out but not by putins threat but by the weak and don’t escalate response of the western (my) leaders! I still have the words from Timothy Snyder ringing in my ears “ the peril of slowness” thank you for your analysis!
Tim Snyder (and Vlad Vexler), my great go-to source of sanity and clarity
Yep.
Russia sabotaged European satellites, various kinds of infrastructure, murdered EU citizens on EU soil, habitually inflicts war crimes on it's neighbors - and all we have is strongly worded letters.
When will the appeasement end? It's clearly not working, and history suggests it's unlikely to.
"Nuclear risk very low for the coming weeks"
Well thats reassuring, we're measuring nuclear apocalypse in a monthly scale now.
Got my own big sweater on too today
Nice!
Me too ✌🏻
AKA swag beater
Freezing news in cozy pullover, thank you, dear Vlad❤
@@nerfherder4284 Me three. Mine buttons up.
He still understands that his military is severely diminished and that any missiles that fall in the west will have dire consequences for him.
Are you sure?
@@karinfend2980 This is all conjecture but if you've been watching how badly the russian military has been performing over the last 1001 days, he doesn't have the feared russian military that it was made out to be before the invasion. They are trying to use tanks from the 70's and earlier and their manpower is severely diminished. Early in the war when putin was saber rattling he received a call from the U.S. that convinced him that we know where he is at any moment and that using a nuclear weapon would mean his death as well. So far it's worked. Is he at a point where he want to commit suicide? We don't know but the notion that he possesses the same capability of the ussr isn't something that's going to work on the west.
@@karinfend2980It’s been three years. At some point Russians will have to put up or shut up. lol They are not going to talk is into being afraid. It will NEVER happen. We do not fear Russia.
There is nothing remotely complex here. Russia must withdraw from Ukraine back to 1991 borders. They are the aggressor. What is the mystery of Ukraine defending itself?
Zelensky literally said yesterday that the 1991 borders are not possible.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u....source please???
@@lynleybreeze3283 google lol, open source. RUclips bans links.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u he said the opposite. The only recognized borders are those of 1991. Territories will be reclaimed by negotiations with russia when it will sober up.
@@lynleybreeze3283 Україна не має стільки сил, щоб зі зброєю в руках дійти до кордонів 91-го року, - Зеленський
Use this quote, it is in all major Ukrainian media, it is from an interview with Fox News as I understand it.
Brilliant jumper Vlad. I can smell the lanolin all the way over here in Australia! Love to you from down under. 🐑 🐑 🐑
I just want to also definitively say that ATACMS is considered a short range tactical missile. Not a long range missile like the media keeps saying in their ignorance.
Brandishing a weapon can get one in deep doo doo.
if he thinks this should give more talking points to people who dont want Ukraine to have more weapons..then it has to have the opposite effect because it shows they NEED more arms to then keep the fight in Ukraine territory so they are over geared and can take on Russia there
I agree it is mainly about spreading fear and democracies are vournable to that.
It could and probably will have the opposite impact, people I've been talking to are angry, not scared.
@@barnabysalter3949you can only be threatened so many times, before it stops working.
It’s getting old very fast now.
ciao caro Vlad!
sono felice di poter guardare un tuo video
un abbraccio
This is Putin trying to undermine the key international principle that if you see a nation being attacked by an aggressor, you have the right to help the defending nation. Ultimately, this doesn't even involve providing that defending nation with advanced missiles and your permission to fire them at military targets in the aggressor nation. If you surrender on the point of providing any type of weapon, the aggressor can turn around and try to blackmail you by saying that providing even further basic aid to the defender, like more bullets or medical supplies, can be treated as an act of war. Nations need to figure out what type of international order they require for their own long-term safety, and provide aid in accordance with that requirement.
this is true, putler is a bully. He attacks His so called brothers the Ukrainians.
Why because he doesnt like their ability to choose a path putin doesnt agree with . So he gets his nose bloodied and now cries " why meeeee!"
👍👍👍
How come we didn't come to Russia's aid when Georgia attacked it?
@@renstein8210 Did Russia ask for help? Did Russia need help considering they outnumbered the Georgians by about 35 to 1?
@ They sure didn’t ask for help. But Georgia still seems to whine about losing a war they started. A lot of people in the west do too.
Translation from Putin-ish to English: "Please be afraid of me... Please be afraid of me... Please be afraid of me... Please be afraid of me... etc."
YES! So sad. Most people know what real strength looks like and it don’t look like this. 🤦♀️
🥱😑
@@davidallison5204 Tell us what it looks like then?
@ Real power is quiet. Real power simply responds, no repeated threats without action. Barking dogs don’t bite.
Does Putin think that our submarines aren’t within 3 minutes striking distance of Moscow?
Putin is sailing very close to the wind... we don't need to wait for the yellow-haired buffoon to take over. If Putin wants escalation we can oblige him right now
Yeh but he's trying to scare the average person in the West to put pressure on their government to stop supporting Ukraine. The logic is that if we keep helping Ukraine (provoking Russia) this will lead to nukes flying
He knows and every general know, but these messages are towards to people in the west who doesnt know coz in western values we should listen to our people
The people on the submarines will be lucky, they will most likely survive, the rest are unlikely.
According to amateur apologists for Putin's aggression, NATO moving closer to Russia changes the time of flight.
«At a very minimal level, its about you, western citizens freak out».
I love how its not even mentioned in the news, at least none I have seen so far.
because he didn't say that
Because it's not directed at you
It's current events, the news will cover the topic eventually - either because they want to, or because they'll be forced to after accusations of hiding or obscuring information
Putin is "arming anti- Ukraine element in the West". Corrosive. 1) Deliberate ambiguity. 2) Post-truth manipulation. 3) Monarchical secrecy. 4) Domestic audience focus.
Strong sweater energy
Khello and thank you.
Thank you, Vlad, for speaking words of reason!
Vlad, your commentary on algorithm-driven content is thought-provoking. A video dedicated to unpacking what 'the algorithm' entails and its societal effects would be highly valuable.
Rights without responsibilities, always the way of the dictator.
Putin's nuclear blackmail is exhausting. Frankly I think that if the day ever comes where Putin really is serious about using a nuclear weapon we might not be able to tell since these threats occur on what seems to be a daily basis.
Be well Vlad.
Thanks Vlad. I always find your thoughts analytical and accurate.
Thanks for being with me
I love listening to your common sense and well-thought-out take on current geopolitics Vlad, and saying that, I think you'd make a superb presidential adviser. You're also looking and sounding a lot better than you did last week, keep it up.
The normalization of using nuclear weapons could be the worst consequence of Russia's use of them. There is a fragile feeling that these weapons are "taboo", but an external agent using them might make scruples go away all around the world. Russia x Ukraine is not the only military/war situation envolving present and future nuclear powers.
I mean, eventual use of them of course.
Yes. This is the primary and foremost consideration. Not that mutually assured destruction is found ineffective. Rather we add more realms into the potential use of nuclear weaponry that becomes acceptable. Which before was considered a crazy position because of potential for escalation. To normalize it would require new boundaries and norms. The other consideration is nuclear being used as a all encompassing deterrent. Because if the situation continues with Russia and it fails to work as a deterrent that brings into question other states hoping to gain or use nuclear as such a deterrent. And again brings us back to re-thinking the mutually assured destruction philosophy as a balance.
It's so strange to think how I reacted in the opening weeks of this war. I went through a couple of weeks of genuine terror, thinking that a nuclear war was a likely prospect. It was almost as if it was a stage I was going through and despite all my knowledge and interest in nuclear issues and the Cold War, my brain turned completely irrational. When I emerged from it I felt a lot more resilient and mentally strong. To the point where I can spot the pattern in Putin's gaslighting.
How do you know it’s gaslighting? Russia has legitimate rocket and ballistic missile technology. All they have to do is test their nuclear warheads and make adjustments, and Putin could severely damage Europe if not the U.S.
In the end, it's a choice to allow blackmail or not.
I came of age at the beginning the Reagan Era. Back then President Reagan talked tough toward Party Chairmans Leonid Brezhnev, Yuri Andropov, Chernenko, and Mikhail Gorbachev. Reagan would know how to handle Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and bring the conflict to victory without resorting to nukes
Both sides have a point,they should sit and discuss possibilities of a solution!
I don't think he looked calm and composed. He looked like a man who understands he's perilously close to his "safe" escalatory limits. The use of that missile and his speech engenders in me not fear but frustration at the relatively passive response to his nuclear brinkmanship.
Thank you Vlad!
In what world is getting another nation (north Korea) involved / striking Ukrainian power stations in winter is not the first escalation!
Will there be evidence of the presence of Korean troops? How many months has this story been going on? A couple?
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2uthere plenty of evidence, even Russians are filming the Nth Koreans in Kursk.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u ебать, братан! уход отказ только сделает тебя питухом.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2uthere’s pics of dead NKs
@@mrsMittens-g9u I don’t know where you get them from, I look at the Ukrainian media and even they can’t find any clear evidence.
Putin must not be allowed to bully, bluster, and lie his way to some kind of victory in Ukraine.
This is principally for the sake of Ukrainians, but it is also for the sake of his other neighbours and potential victims.
From which pulpit the sermon comes??
WESTERNERS INVADED ALL CONTINENTS!!
@user1qaz2wsx3edc The Russian has invaded murdered and conquered from Europe to the Far East via the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Russia is the biggest empire in the world and was invading, murdering and exploiting before the US existed and before the British started building their empire.
Russia is still actively trying to expand its empire.
If you hate imperialism, you should hate Russia.
Thermo nuclear anilation aside , can we all just recognise how much Vlad is owning that hygge look with his cable knit jumper and specs !
I am surprised by your choice of word, 'hygge'.
I wasnt expecting to find a danish word in the middle of an English sentence lol. But I agree, it does look rather 'hyggeligt' with his attire.
@@Exxperiment626 Especially since we have a perfectly good English word for it - comfy.
God. Can you please simp harder?
Thanks Vlad💕
Which one? 😁
Vlad, it's so clear that you really xare about your audience in the way you explain things. Thank you for your compassion in breaking these down for us.
It went global when North Korea joined the war.
Iran already was selling drones from the beginning, putin just use any event to manipulate and scare Ukraine's allies.
They didn't join the war. There is no evidence of them joining the war. You need to understand that the west is best at propaganda. And you are gullible.
Putin will soon get a similar warning
In P:s shoes I would also look composed - it’s vital for him to appear unperturbed. An old mafia boss and a seasoned liar knows how to act. He is probably very angry and not happy at all. I value freedom more than anything and would hate to see Western leaders allowing P to walk all over us in a fight between evil/wrong and what is right. Freedom comes at a cost and our job is to pay.
Somehow it doesn't look like anybody cares about this "test"
They're probably looking to see what the online environment is before flooring the comments sections with messaging on this.
@@andreisopon4615If you check channels like the british BBC, you realize, that hundreds of „accounts“ are posting fearmongering comments about how „we westeners“ should pressure our leaders to give in on Russias demands.
Pathetic.
Well, you personaly shouldn't. Well, until Russia announces where it's going to hit. Putin said Russia is going to announce it beforehand, so you can evac
After the election results. I wouldn't take anything for granted😅
@@WretchedEgg528 You know how that goes, right? Do you really and rationally think an attack on another European country would help Russia in any way possible? Could it not be the exact opposite scenario?
Thank you for your thoughts! They've been useful for my own reflections. As always.
Thank you, Vlad, for sharing your competent and professional thoughts, that both challenge us and keep us sane and aware. May you be blessed 🙏
Thaaanks!
Good to see you feeling better❤. Excellent and much needed analysis. Thank you!
Brezhnev tried the same against Mao. This running threat of nukes shows Putin doesn't know how to play poker. You don't show your hand until all the cards are dealt.
Putin's nuclear arsenal is only valuable if it is considered to be a viable threat. That is certainly something the Western allies are analyzing. Given the poor performance of Russian conventional weapons systems, the viability of their nuclear arsenal is far from a given.
The West (especially the US) must immediately supply air defense systems that can better handle this expanded threat.
Excuse me? We "must " not have to do anything. This was a voluntary not really our problem.
There are no air defences to stop those kinds of bombs.
Escalate to De-escalate. Raise anxiety to highest levels to make Trumps crazy proposal to end the war more palatable. Its a tv show
Hear ya brother
Always a pleasure to spend time with you Good Sir.
Nice to see you 'up' and around. Passing on those stylish glasses again?
Ha ha thank you for being with me
It's funny that it was a scare tactic for us, the people. I told a bunch of my co-workers, and they didn't even give a shit. Even when i said icbms are what usually carry nukes. They shrugged their shoulders and continued on lol.
I'm betting it was a Hwasong-17. A North Korean missile. The last MRBMs were made in the U.S.S.R., and were supposedly destroyed with START Treaty.
Hello Vlad! xx 🎉
I hear Putin and I'll be going fishing tomorrow. Hohum
Great exposition, as always. Thank you.
Deciphering these developments for us on such an outstanding level is true value.
Rumple - Poo-tin stamping his tiny feet ! 🇬🇧❤🇺🇦
Insane ukraine with no brain and grain going down the drain..
thanks for your inside
Meanwhile, the Secretary-General of the United Nations... ( crickets ) 🙄
Putin requires a harsh slap down for this. The west needs to be very focused right now ..
Appeasement, let's consider the results of appeasement. Maybe we'll have Peace for our time?
Vlad... you never fail to surprise me with your brilliant insights. I sure hope those who are making the decisions have someone as sharp as you on the inside.
Mr Vexler, you make my day.
Brilliant man.
no worries, it's just a bluff
Listen to 8:50 again
@@fra604 ok, let's worry then
@@yaroslavromanov8357 why?
Exactly
It's a sad thing that the powerful all over the world started to believe their own propaganda. It says something about the human condition. How easily we slip into delusional ideas when they provide comfort to our ego. Especially in the powerful, when their bodies grow frail with age and their dominance feels like it's waning.
Looking so much better today!! Love the sweater ❤
Putin was never clever enough to be a good chess player but he is a good poker player who is excellent at identifying and playing upon the weaknesses of his opponents.
Thank you. I have really felt close to ending it all today. I have small children and I’ve been vomiting all day from worry about this
Please don't worry. Find someone to talk to and focus on your lovely children. One day this will all be over.
What?? Stay alive for your children at least. Don't let foreign bullies scare you.
Please see a counselor.
He can try. But he has to deal with the most viscious war machines on Earth.
I think China is the key to shrinking Russia's confidence. We have relied too much on Chinese industrial manufacturing, and fed its militarial sector. Disengaging from china economically would be a good strategic move. As china is bankrolling Russia and supplying technology, reducing our reliance could halt that progress.
Boycott!
Two problems with Putin's strategy:1) Any attack on a Western military "object" would be an article 5 trigger; 2) I doubt the use of an ICBM is a meaningful to most people because we are not military experts, so it becomes an escalation that perhaps is going to be hard to distinguish from any of the other threats he has made-he has been threatening us for nearly three years. Russia has lost up to a million soldiers through death and injury, it's army is degraded, and it is the largest country in the world with an economy on a par with Italy- other than nuclear weapons, which he can use, the threats ring largely hollow.
Excellent video, thank you Vlad! Hope you're doing better healthwise.
It's nothing more than a predictable checker move on a checker board. Notice I didn't say chess-move. Putin isn't that sophisticated. He is absolutely transparent also.
pootie's playing 1D checkers
So if one takes this stance of Putin and turns it upside down or inside out: The US or Uk could on behalf of Ukraine attack North Korea or Iran since they provided weapons to Russia... Hmmm... Interesting talk tonight Vlad! Thank´s a lot again - you make me think more in new circles than i´m used to... 🤣 Take care and enjoy!🤗
No! It doesn't work that way around! Clearly.
@@mrpocock Not sure if i understand or if i wasn´t clear enough. If Russia thinks that they can attack a country that delivered weapons to Ukraine and at the same time is cofighting with North Korea against Ukraine. Why couldn´t one think that Ukraine or one of their suppliers attacked one of Russias suppliers? Of course i think that this an absurd idea - but Putin seems to think that this is relevant! 😦
@@thomash3716 he's being facetious, in support of your argument
@@thomash3716 That's not how these kinds of arguments work. Everything is post-hoc. Russia doesn't want Ukraine to be helped. So they say anybody supporting Ukraine should fear attack by Russia. Russia wants support from Iran, so Russia says that anybody attacking Iran is acting illegitimately and dangerously. There is no point trying to look at what Russia says as if it was a good faith debate. That's not what it is or how it is supposed to function.
@@mrpocock OK
The more threats the Kremlin is enunciating, the less concerned I am (in Central Europe).
It's ling past the time that his threats were responded to in kind. Preemptively
great analysis. subbed.
This strikes me more like a tantrum than a warning
Great comments, tank you
Question: Lets assume the nuclear risk is 99%. Currently, with what option does Putin leave the West, to which it can avoid nuclear war without also surrendering everything (this would encompass our nations, our democracies, our civil liberties) to Russia?
If only we could turn "war fatigue" into "fear fatigue", these threats would lose most of their effectiveness
Please note, that while it was expected that putin would hit Kiev, he was afraid to do so even with this empty missile.
This missile is a bit stronger than the other ones Russia has and has lugged at Ukraine, but isn't all that destructive without the nuclear bomb payload. The main characteristic is that it can carry a nuclear bomb, but so can the Kinzal which they already used (but not many know).
Vlad thank you
Thanks
NO APPEASEMENT by the West, come what may.
“right”
Sounds like a declaration of war that a coward makes when they desperately need to escalate
Honestly think he's going too far now with these threats especially really targeting the UK lately.
even my gran who sadly is a daily mail reader but said to me "he's a stupid little man" putin forgets we went through ww2.
Thank you, Vlad, as always, for sharing your thoughts!
Concerning the nuclear risk: IMHO, as long as China doesn't want Putin to use nukes, he very likely won't.
However, you seem to have much more energy today than you had in the last months. I really hope that is the case!
Thank you so much for your work! 🌻
Another way to look at the missile attack on Dinipro is that that they have run out of other missiles and are now using the ones used to deliver nuclear warheads (which are no longer manufactured) as it is unlikely that west will nuke ruSSia.
How can we not hate Russia???
Well Putins Version of it. He r worded its culture like Hitler did with Germany
Putin can't even defeat Ukraine 😂😂