I have heard recent interviews with Dr. Hunt (Summer of 2020) and none are as well put together as this one from 2 years ago. Excellent interview and the information is still relevant.
Dr. Hunt never disappoints with his powerful insights into the macro financial world. Always a favorite of mine in terms of actionable information. Thanks.
Of course there are limits to growth! This is basic physics. Doing more with less will take you only so far. For example, if your funds get down to zero, you can't just say, "Well, I will just shop more carefully, look for bargains, take advantage of coupons and sales." That will get your resources to zero slower, but it will not stretch resources, or their substitutes, to infinity. Innovation itself also has diminishing returns, with the lowest hanging fruit getting picked first, as Adam Smith recognized in _The Wealth of Nations_ . Smith understood that the industrial revolution would be a temporary historical phase, but most of his successors have lost sight of that. Stein's law applies. Great interview though. I have heard several finance guys speak highly of Lacy Hunt's knowledge and intellect.
For goodness sake allow Dr Lacy Hunt speak with all due respect I have almost had enough of your interruptions please this Gentleman is wonderful to listen to not your interruption
What a great mind! We live in the age of fake expert authorities... We are a part of ignorants-run experiment, not only in the field of economy but also medicine, food production, climate science, social engineering, cultural theories. BTW a very good host - understands the topic, asks good questions adds easy analogies for listeners.
@@LL-sk3do but what if gold is being used a back all other upcoming currencies? Wouldn’t that increase global demand and therefore increase the gold you are holding?
I think deflation rewards those who have savings since each dollar will now buy more, whereas inflation punishes savers since savings decrease in value (assuming that interest rates are below inflation rates). Deflation encourages savings and inflation encourages spending.
I can't stand the idea of calling Gov't intervention "heroic efforts" counter intuitive, counter intellect. This interview is great. Smart economist being interviewed by a smart interviewer. Nice! Subscribing.
The money supply is too high. I feel like the USD is loosing value, in relative terms to housing prices. The central banks need to make policy to invest into businesses that make the economy more productive and more cost effective. Like loans for insulation. Or loans for very useful infrastructure projects. Or loans for high speed Internet networks that speed up the economy.
Housing prices are a function of interest rates. Artificially low mortgage rates are allowing high home prices. If interest rates normalize, house prices will have to fall in order for buyers to qualify.
Because if the couple I've listened to are any indication, the interviewer will interrupt too much. I'm one of those that subscribed, then later unsubscribed because of this.
The culture has change dramatically and so many have a deep sense of entitlement which leads to dependency and then dependency becomes generational. I call it the "checks for votes" era which will eventually lead to our demise. This is irreversible in that "it is easy to give something to someone and very difficult to take it away"
I know this is 3 years old, but there are enough resources in our solar system that we could access with easily conceivable technology, that over population just won't be a concern for centuries, even if it continued to rise in the fashion it did last century. The thing that's scary, is losing all our natural green space and replacing it with artificality and cityscape.
The IMF used to believe the idea that fiscal multipliers were less than 0. That austerity would produce growth. Then it thoroughly changed its mind. Olivier Blanchard on how they got it so wrong: "A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters."www.nber.org/papers/w18779. If I lose my government job I don't thinK "yay now the government will tax me less in future years so I'm going to rush out and by a sofa from Ikea". I save even more and demand crashes. If fiscal austerity is such a great panacea for an economy, Greece should now be experiencing high growth. Finally, high government debt can be associated with low growth. But correlation is not causation. Low growth reduces tax revenue and auto stabilisers kick in increasing deficits endogenously. Reinhart and Rogoff's work is highly criticised.
Basically all what He is saying is all that the Austrian economist forecast many years ago, nevertheless is elegant to support your theory with statistics, and some of them very old.
Stock market crash!!?? check out my podcast, have a new one coming soon about the bubble in gold and the bounce between the deflation and inflationary plays!
You can choose austerity now, or it will choose you later. Piling up high debt levels and then saying austerity cannot be the answer is like stepping off a tall building and saying gravity cannot be the answer because the consequences are too terrible to think about.
High levels of debt to service make austerity in some form inevitable. The only question is how long can you kick the can down the road. The money multiplier exists. The only question is how high or low it is.
This is a reasonable discussion but flawed in many respects, mostly concerning the difference between causation and correlation - please read these books: www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15996.html (Brief History of Doom, Richard Vague) ; plus Ray Dalio's masterwork www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/
This would be a good moment in time to get Dr Hunt on the show again....
I was thinking the same thing.
I have heard recent interviews with Dr. Hunt (Summer of 2020) and none are as well put together as this one from 2 years ago. Excellent interview and the information is still relevant.
The most underappreciated podcast ever
Excellent interview 👏
interesting to go back in time
Dr. Hunt never disappoints with his powerful insights into the macro financial world. Always a favorite of mine in terms of actionable information. Thanks.
Of course there are limits to growth! This is basic physics. Doing more with less will take you only so far. For example, if your funds get down to zero, you can't just say, "Well, I will just shop more carefully, look for bargains, take advantage of coupons and sales." That will get your resources to zero slower, but it will not stretch resources, or their substitutes, to infinity. Innovation itself also has diminishing returns, with the lowest hanging fruit getting picked first, as Adam Smith recognized in _The Wealth of Nations_ . Smith understood that the industrial revolution would be a temporary historical phase, but most of his successors have lost sight of that. Stein's law applies. Great interview though. I have heard several finance guys speak highly of Lacy Hunt's knowledge and intellect.
For goodness sake allow Dr Lacy Hunt speak with all due respect I have almost had enough of your interruptions please this Gentleman is wonderful to listen to not your interruption
What a great mind! We live in the age of fake expert authorities... We are a part of ignorants-run experiment, not only in the field of economy but also medicine, food production, climate science, social engineering, cultural theories. BTW a very good host - understands the topic, asks good questions adds easy analogies for listeners.
Thanks for the podcast. Lacy Hunt is one of my favorite economist. Every time I listen to him I learn so much. Thanks again for doing the interview.
If we are about to experience deflation, there is no point in buying gold for store of value. Right?
Correct. Once the stock market figures it out that we're entering deflation not inflation the market will crash and so will gold.
i disagree. negative real rates in the bond market are actually beneficial to gold.
@@LL-sk3do but what if gold is being used a back all other upcoming currencies? Wouldn’t that increase global demand and therefore increase the gold you are holding?
I think deflation rewards those who have savings since each dollar will now buy more, whereas inflation punishes savers since savings decrease in value (assuming that interest rates are below inflation rates). Deflation encourages savings and inflation encourages spending.
I can't stand the idea of calling Gov't intervention "heroic efforts" counter intuitive, counter intellect. This interview is great. Smart economist being interviewed by a smart interviewer. Nice! Subscribing.
Honest feedback here. Interview is excellent! Opening of show reminds me of "ShamWow" commercials.
Would love to hear what Lacy Hunt thinks about the post covid 20% rise in land prices.
The money supply is too high. I feel like the USD is loosing value, in relative terms to housing prices.
The central banks need to make policy to invest into businesses that make the economy more productive and more cost effective.
Like loans for insulation. Or loans for very useful infrastructure projects. Or loans for high speed Internet networks that speed up the economy.
Housing prices are a function of interest rates. Artificially low mortgage rates are allowing high home prices. If interest rates normalize, house prices will have to fall in order for buyers to qualify.
How the hell does this channel only have 832 subs?
The morons far outnumber the enlightened.
Because if the couple I've listened to are any indication, the interviewer will interrupt too much. I'm one of those that subscribed, then later unsubscribed because of this.
The culture has change dramatically and so many have a deep sense of entitlement which leads to dependency and then dependency becomes generational. I call it the "checks for votes" era which will eventually lead to our demise. This is irreversible in that "it is easy to give something to someone and very difficult to take it away"
Great and insightful podcast. Thank you
Brilliant interview! Thank you, DK.
Top notch discussion.
Great interview.
Great interview.
One suggestion, let your guest speak, that is why you invited them
I know this is 3 years old, but there are enough resources in our solar system that we could access with easily conceivable technology, that over population just won't be a concern for centuries, even if it continued to rise in the fashion it did last century. The thing that's scary, is losing all our natural green space and replacing it with artificality and cityscape.
The IMF used to believe the idea that fiscal multipliers were less than 0. That austerity would produce growth. Then it thoroughly changed its mind. Olivier Blanchard on how they got it so wrong: "A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters."www.nber.org/papers/w18779.
If I lose my government job I don't thinK "yay now the government will tax me less in future years so I'm going to rush out and by a sofa from Ikea". I save even more and demand crashes. If fiscal austerity is such a great panacea for an economy, Greece should now be experiencing high growth. Finally, high government debt can be associated with low growth. But correlation is not causation. Low growth reduces tax revenue and auto stabilisers kick in increasing deficits endogenously. Reinhart and Rogoff's work is highly criticised.
Funny that I only find this now - several years after its posting
Great interview!
grEAT INTERVIEW. Great speaker and excellent interviewer.
Deindustrialisation and financialization.
Brilliant
Stop interrupting Lacy Hunt. Let your guest speak.
Basically all what He is saying is all that the Austrian economist forecast many years ago, nevertheless is elegant to support your theory with statistics, and some of them very old.
Dr. Hunt needs to watch your interview with Dr. West... no limits to growth... what?
cool
Stock market crash!!?? check out my podcast, have a new one coming soon about the bubble in gold and the bounce between the deflation and inflationary plays!
Austerity cannot be the answer as it hits the poor the hardest.
You can choose austerity now, or it will choose you later. Piling up high debt levels and then saying austerity cannot be the answer is like stepping off a tall building and saying gravity cannot be the answer because the consequences are too terrible to think about.
Outdated guest: money multiplier, proausterity, etc
Suso Medin -- check out his calls on interest rates. Man knows more than you likely ever will
High levels of debt to service make austerity in some form inevitable. The only question is how long can you kick the can down the road.
The money multiplier exists. The only question is how high or low it is.
Have to agree with comments about interviewer. Shut the hell up when he’s talking and let him complete his entire thought. Get over yourself.
This guy is living in the Pre-1930s
Aren't we all, in a way? I think we will eventually find that the 2030s are not so different from the 1930s.
Host talks too much
Sometimes it's good the host points out details such as years and clarifications, but he needs to shut his mouth more.
This is a reasonable discussion but flawed in many respects, mostly concerning the difference between causation and correlation - please read these books: www.upenn.edu/pennpress/book/15996.html (Brief History of Doom, Richard Vague) ; plus Ray Dalio's masterwork www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/
The interviewer loves to hear his voice way, way too much. We want to hear the guest. Stop trying to impress the audience.
Lousy interviewer, great guest.
Brilliant