Albo today mentioned a whole bunch of events that Australia has gone through since 2019....he said covid, wars and we had a recession. I was like wtf!! When did Australia have a recession???
Thank the politicians for this lack of affordability. Hard to see housing becoming affordable in Australia when politicians own investment property portfolios. There is a conflict of interest and politicians would not want their personal wealth to drop.
The concern about politicians owning investment properties and its impact on housing affordability is a significant one. Indeed, if policymakers have personal financial stakes in the real estate market, this could potentially influence their decision-making and policy development, potentially prioritizing personal wealth over public affordability.
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crisis, and even pull it off easily in a favourable economy. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich.
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience since the 08' crash.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
We currently have a shortage of 97,000 homes in Australia. By 2026 this will grow to a shortage of 146,000 homes. Increasing shortages cause prices to go up, not down. Also, everything from fuel, to materials, to vehicles and labour is getting more expensive.
Thank you for highlighting these pressing concerns. The projected shortage of homes in Australia indeed presents significant challenges, not only in terms of housing availability but also in how it influences property prices. The compounding factors of rising costs for fuel, materials, vehicles, and labour add to the complexity of the housing market, making affordability a key issue for many Australians.
Maybe people who already own homes will buy more but I can not see immigration saving the value of dwellings. The naturalized Australian population is decreasing. Top of the curve? Probably not
This is because Australia was open to the overseas rich, buying residency visa's allowing them to buy Australian homes, to rent out to Australians. This visa has been stopped on Dec 23. Hopefully we will see the effects of this by June 24.
rich asian people just find another way to go about it they got money like we dont know nothing . like buy a student visa and rort the system like it has designed to be rorted
Good points. Still, house prices can't increase faster than salaries forever. That rubber band will snap sooner or later. I don't see it snapping on the 'salaries' end, I see it snapping on the 'house prices' end.
Australian government/politician's must adopt the following to provide a financial environment beneficial for Australian tax paying citizens. 1/ Non Australian citizens should not be allowed to own ANY type of property within Australia. This will help property affordability for all Australian citizens by removing this competition out of the market place. 2/ Inflict high taxes upon those non Australian citizens that do not make their properties available for rent within Australia to Australian citizens. This will increase the supply of rental properties available on the open market and will help stabilise and possibly decrease cost to rent. It may also force overseas investors to sell their property which will help increase supply over demand which in turn will help bring down property prices. All of the above could be implemented within weeks following the stoke of a pen. Our politicians live in a different world to the citizens that employ them.
I will add to your list and say corporations should not be allowed to buy single family homes. They are competing with individuals and pushing them out of them market.
I work for myself repairing in wealthy areas and my work demand has reduced by 50% over the last 6 months and i have not seen that before in 19 years (other than being locked down for covid) of working for myself. So yes the wealthy are over extended now as most are leveraged to the hilt. So one to two moves up in interest rates will bring about the crash. Hint: watch the boat sales and holiday homes sales websites for an uptick in sales. This will happen just before the crash as the over leveraged sell off their toys to stay afloat. I have watched for the last 6 months and just a slight uptick but that will change with the next rate rise.
Thank god we have 30 year fixed rate mortgages in the US. I have a 2.4% 30 year mortgage. No surprises with interest rate changes. That coupled with the cost of housing in Australia is why I didn’t stay in Australia after working there 4 years.
If only we had that option in Australia, right? The idea of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 2.4% is incredibly appealing, especially with the way it offers stability and predictability over the long term. No surprises with interest rate changes can make a huge difference in planning your financial future.
But does it create a bigger gap on the rich and poor? 30 year fixed. Rich can buy anytime and refinance to get a new 30 year fixed. Using equity every time.
Aust average is about twice of the US??? 400K ish there and 1 million for Melb/Sydney on approx 50-70K salaries here???? Debt is 1 trill Aust, and 34 Trill US and spiraling and personal CC debt and general debt is same going up and up YET, no crash or recession for over 30 years thanks to printing and this is sending everything up but with less real value... IMPLOSION DUE...
The rising debt levels in both countries, despite no significant economic crash or recession, could be attributed to various economic policies, including quantitative easing (money printing). The impact of such policies often leads to decreased real value of money and increased asset prices.
Totally agree and I've had the same opinion for years. I cannot make any sense on the sunshine coast the average being $800k or 1mil for a 1acre house. As you say on earnings of 50 to 70000 a year. Just nuts. When will it stop? Maybe soon as China crashes ?
In Bitcoin the price of housing has crashed. In AUD housing has gone up. The problem is the currency debasement of AUD. How much does the RBA have in mortgage securities? This AUD based boom is funded by the RBA. What game are they playing?
I think another problem is that the corporate sector has fooled successive governments into thinking we have a labour shortage .But if you research “ghost Jobs” you will discover that labour demand is over inflated and the skills shortage is a fallacy. Australian businesses always seem to look desperate for workers but don’t recognise overseas qualifications anyway and migrants who settle in Australia end up working in take away food delivery or driving taxis.
The crash will come from the fragility in the financial system, and the economic slowdown the housing market is creating. Banks are under capitalised. Every boom in history has ended in a bust eventually, and the bigger the boom the harder the bust.
High levels of immigration can indeed have a significant impact on housing demand, contributing to price increases and potentially exacerbating affordability issues, especially in major cities where immigrants tend to congregate. This is due to a straightforward economic principle: as demand increases (in this case, for housing), and if supply does not keep pace, prices are likely to rise. Australia has historically relied on immigration as a key driver of population growth and economic development. Immigrants contribute to the labor force, consumer spending, and, significantly, the demand for housing. This increased demand can lead to higher property prices and rents, particularly in areas where housing supply is constrained by geographical limitations, regulatory hurdles, or slow construction rates. However, it's also essential to consider that immigration is only one of several factors influencing the housing market. Other elements include interest rates, availability of credit, investment activity, and government policies related to housing supply and affordability. For instance, policies that encourage the construction of new housing, zoning laws, and incentives for first-time homebuyers can also significantly impact the market. While high immigration can contribute to demand pressures on housing, addressing the affordability challenge requires a multifaceted approach. This might include measures to increase the housing supply, improve affordability through financial assistance programs, and ensure that infrastructure development keeps pace with population growth. In summary, while immigration does play a role in shaping housing demand in Australia, it's part of a complex set of factors affecting the housing market. Effective management of the housing market and addressing affordability issues necessitate comprehensive policies that consider both the demand and supply sides of the equation.
@@OfficialSolDios it is lol, high immigration is the primary reason. we just hit 27 million people 20 YEARS before it was predicted in 2002. Australia is fucked.
@@boxedogunfortunately you are correct, we never asked for this. Australia was was much better in the 80’s and 90’s, before the floodgates opened. Quality of life was better.
Why have house stock numbers remained super low compared to demand for years!!! It’s a ludicrous mis-management of land resource and construction capacity in Australia! The lack of supply has uneccesary driver of horrendous criminal price of property
The persistent low numbers of housing stock compared to demand in Australia can be attributed to several factors. These include land use regulations, which can restrict the amount of land available for development, and challenges in the construction sector, such as labour shortages and increased material costs. Additionally, investment patterns and government policies can influence the property market, sometimes leading to a focus on certain types of developments over others. Addressing these issues to balance supply and demand is a complex task, involving policy changes, economic strategies, and perhaps a shift in focus towards different types of housing developments.
Federal government had a 20 billion $ surplus. Pretty sure none of it went to paying down the debt. Common sense financially in a Federal government is prettymuch a fantasy that people hope for and never arrives.
Australian house prices are not going to crash until supply is higher than demand. So many immigrants need a home, and they are still pouring in. Hardly any homes are being built. Of course anything is possible, but more than likely house prices are going to keep rising.
They will force people to work at home, which will create isolation,then they will make heaps on flooding the market with cheaper renovated office's,and the ordinary investors will be forced to drop rent or sell up,or offer there sweetener to own a percentage ,and eventually own more than you,hold on for the ride, first home owners, the crash will come, what goes up too fast will come down harder
If interest rates come down it helps people with home loans to pay the debt and keep the property. Which helps property prices stay where they are or increase. If Federal government increases their Debt it may interfere with interest rates in the future in a negative way.
Very true, your point about the relationship between interest rates, home loan affordability, and property prices is well-taken and will be in a video Im going to publish next week. Lower interest rates do indeed make it easier for homeowners to manage their mortgage repayments, which in turn can support or even increase property values. This is because cheaper borrowing costs can stimulate demand for housing, as more people find they can afford to take out loans to buy homes.
has everyone forgotten the the 1990's???????????????? This is history repeating itself, in the 90's there was a realestate boom, then interest rates jumped up to 19% and a very large percentage of people couldn't afford their mortgages, the houses became worth less than they owed......... supply and demand resulted in massive sell offs which drove prices DOWN. Most homeowners I have spoken to are VERY HIGHLY geared, and increase of mortgage interested rates of 2% and people cannot afford their mortgage................... In the 1970's a mortgage was equivalent to 4yrs income, today it's closer to 10yrs income.............. government claims 4.2% CPI/inflation but doesn't calculated FOOD or ENERGY into that calculation. I see dark clouds approaching but if you wear woollen socks to bed you will be totally fine ;-) Remember is not property prices going up but more the loss of buying power of the $$$ which is losing its value.
Thanks for the view. It's useful to reflect on past economic cycles, like the 1990s, as they remind us that while the market can fluctuate, it also offers opportunities for prepared investors to thrive. Understanding history helps us navigate the future more wisely, ensuring we're better equipped to handle shifts in the market and protect our investments. Thanks again!
@@MortgageBrokerAustralia Indeed it's obvious that "investors" will always take advantage of other peoples downfalls...................but we don't live in a fair or perfect world.
As housing prices increase while wages stagnate. Homelessness and poverty will increase as housing affordability becomes impossible for the younger generation. Only large corporations with lots of capital will own them. Rent will also become unrealistic to afford. Shanty towns will start to develop in areas around cities. All while there will be perfectly liveable housing remaining empty. This happened during the great depression. All the infrastructure, buildings and the means to produce food hadn’t changed, they were still there. But the monetary system and economic greed through the use of a central bank and a stock market exchange caused this. Banks through the fractional reserve banking system have printed money in the form of a promissory note to use as mortgage loans. Then charge interest on the mortgage loan that they printed in the first place. This along with uncontrolled immigration and scarcity has over inflated the housing market. But as long as banks make billions of dollars profit by creating poverty and homelessness.
The influx of wealthy immigrants can indeed contribute to housing demand and price increases, especially in major cities and desirable areas. Maintaining high living standards and a welcoming environment for immigrants can sustain demand for property, making it a potentially good investment
Yeah, bringing in a large number of people, like the 650,000 mentioned, in a single year does indeed present significant implications, especially in areas such as housing, infrastructure, and public services.
Federal governments have a choice. They can either bring in workers as immigrants who will possibly never own their own houses and need money from the government to survive or the Government can choose to bring in rich people who buy their own house 🏠 and hopefully get a job so they will less likely need government money to survive. As in the Federal governments choice is effectively to choose between turning Australia 🇦🇺 into a poverty stricken rathole where millions of people never own their own houses 🏘 and have to get money from the Federal government to survive or to try to have Australia 🇦🇺 be something better than a rathole. Anyway the government has chosen to make Australia 🇦🇺 a rathole so what people think does not really matter. The majority of new immigrants will not be winning the lotto to buy a house in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane. Space aliens 👽 will not come from another solar system to give them money to buy a house in Australia. Thats just how it is.😊.
Very true, Immigration policy and its impact on national housing markets and economic health is a complex and multifaceted issue. The challenge for any country, including Australia, lies in finding a balance that supports economic growth and social cohesion while also addressing concerns about housing affordability and social welfare.
i see your opinion is a little biased towards happiest people these days; speculators, mortgage brokers, politicians and real estate agents. well.. it's middle of May 2024.
Interest rates aren't the problem, they are still below normal at 4.35% and there is no justification to cut them going forward. House prices are the elephant in the room. RBA should keep raising rates until the Government decides to do its job.
A crash is a coming, it'll be caused by global economic factors. Our economy is a little too dependant on a few export commodities and too leveraged on debt. If commodity prices drop and exports decline the $AUD drops, inflation goes up, interest rates up, unemployment goes up and housing goes down.
Your perspective highlights concerns about the potential impact of global economic factors on the Australian economy, particularly focusing on the country's reliance on a few key export commodities and high levels of debt. The scenario you're describing suggests that a downturn in commodity prices could lead to a chain reaction: a weakening Australian dollar, rising inflation, higher interest rates, increased unemployment, and a decline in the housing market. This viewpoint underscores the interconnectedness of global and domestic economic factors and the importance of monitoring these trends for potential impacts on the national economy and the real estate sector.
@@Leo-vk6qmthere is no way the government will allow the house prices to drop by 50%. Australians population is dependent on their housing for wealth and many will suffer if a massive crash did happen . The government will create insensitive for ppl to enter the market .
Wow I have never seen public signage in Sydney in any of the Indian or Sri Lankan languages. Maybe some government offices, always in addition to English!
@ev0wat as a Parramatta resident,there are no street signs in anything other than English. There might be some signage near the Hindu temple and there's business signs in Indian languages in Harris Park.
We have been waiting for this crash...smart investment ignore the noise and follow the data...I worry more about missing out on the growth! No crash guys, price correction with dropping prices maybe? But not in 2024!
Your perspective highlights a common sentiment in property investment: focusing on data and trends rather than speculation or 'noise'. The idea of a 'crash' in the housing market is often subject to debate. While some may anticipate a significant downturn, others, like yourself, expect more of a correction than a crash. This could mean a moderation in price increases or slight decreases in certain areas, rather than a broad, severe drop in property values. It's important to stay informed with reliable data and market analysis, especially in a volatile market. Missing out on potential growth is a valid concern, and each investor must balance the risks and opportunities based on their individual strategy and market conditions.
You are quite right! The media has been 'predicting' the Australian property market armageddon for decades- but still nothing! In fact the market is performing quite strongly…
Will probably drop when they walk back the China & India FTAs which included uncapped migration. Those numvers are not in the immigration caps....only if people knew how Australia will be overwhelmed.
FTAs, such as those with China and India, can have implications for immigration and housing demand. If these agreements include provisions for increased migration, this could further drive demand for housing. Revising such agreements or immigration policies could potentially impact the market, though such changes are often complex and politically sensitive.
Pauline Hanson knew 30 years ago and no one believed her and if we did we got shit for it. So Australians can reap what they have seen now. How you vote is the most important thing Australians should pearn about, but don't. So to bad, so sad. Invest in learning politics.
Hey, thanks for chiming in! You're absolutely right, COVID sure did throw a giant spanner in the works, followed by 13 consecutive rate rises. But the property market has proven to be really resilient. The future looks bright!
Thank you for sharing your thoughts! We understand that concerns about the housing market can be overwhelming. However, Australia’s property market has seen cycles before and has always bounced back.
Who essentially predicted any of the previous/current property booms in Australia? No one basically. So who will predict the next property boom in Australia? No one basically. Of course...if you bought multiple properties 20 years ago...and ignored the doom sayers...and continued to hold through both the GFC and COVID then I guess you just got lucky though 😂
Indeed, accurately predicting property booms, their timing, magnitude, and duration, is notoriously difficult. Many factors influence the property market, including economic conditions, interest rates, population growth, and government policies, making precise predictions challenging. The success stories of those who invested in property 20 years ago and held onto their investments through significant economic downturns like the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic highlight a key investment principle: long-term holding in real estate often leads to substantial gains. This is partly due to the general upward trend of property values over time, despite periodic downturns. The notion of "getting lucky" by investing in real estate over the long term does have some merit, considering the unpredictable nature of booms and busts. However, it also underscores the importance of strategic investment decisions, risk tolerance, and sometimes, the benefit of patience and resilience in facing economic uncertainties. While no one can predict with certainty when the next property boom will occur, history suggests that the Australian property market has a strong track record of long-term growth. This encourages investors to consider real estate as part of their investment portfolio, keeping in mind the risks and the importance of diversification to mitigate those risks.
Haha what are you talking about? I can give you at least 3 long-term property economists that predicted high growth. Multiple times. In specific locations. I’ve been hearing doomsday property talk in Australia for 25 years. 😂
globalisational demand for local limited supply market = Higher and higher prices. When will it stop? when all australians sell to foreign states and we will no longer be called Straya
The pressure on housing prices due to global demand, especially in desirable locations, is a real concern. This demand, coupled with limited supply, can drive prices up significantly. The question of when this will stop is complex and depends on multiple factors, including policy decisions aimed at increasing supply or regulating foreign ownership.
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Albo today mentioned a whole bunch of events that Australia has gone through since 2019....he said covid, wars and we had a recession. I was like wtf!! When did Australia have a recession???
Thank the politicians for this lack of affordability. Hard to see housing becoming affordable in Australia when politicians own investment property portfolios. There is a conflict of interest and politicians would not want their personal wealth to drop.
The concern about politicians owning investment properties and its impact on housing affordability is a significant one. Indeed, if policymakers have personal financial stakes in the real estate market, this could potentially influence their decision-making and policy development, potentially prioritizing personal wealth over public affordability.
if an employee was discovered to be involved in this type of association it is considered a transparent conflict of interest for personal gain
Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I've seen folks amass up to $1m amid crisis, and even pull it off easily in a favourable economy. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting somebody somewhere rich.
I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience since the 08' crash.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
Commodified housing, that’s why. They’re financial product, not HOMES.
Thanks for watching.
We currently have a shortage of 97,000 homes in Australia.
By 2026 this will grow to a shortage of 146,000 homes.
Increasing shortages cause prices to go up, not down.
Also, everything from fuel, to materials, to vehicles and labour is getting more expensive.
Thank you for highlighting these pressing concerns. The projected shortage of homes in Australia indeed presents significant challenges, not only in terms of housing availability but also in how it influences property prices. The compounding factors of rising costs for fuel, materials, vehicles, and labour add to the complexity of the housing market, making affordability a key issue for many Australians.
Maybe people who already own homes will buy more but I can not see immigration saving the value of dwellings. The naturalized Australian population is decreasing. Top of the curve? Probably not
FHB who don't have mom/dad money are better of moving overseas
This is because Australia was open to the overseas rich, buying residency visa's allowing them to buy Australian homes, to rent out to Australians. This visa has been stopped on Dec 23. Hopefully we will see the effects of this by June 24.
Will certainly be interesting to see how things play out
nothing to do with overseas, alot of owner occupiers were buying
Nothing a change in Government, deportation and confiscation won't fix :)
rich asian people just find another way to go about it they got money like we dont know nothing . like buy a student visa and rort the system like it has designed to be rorted
Good points.
Still, house prices can't increase faster than salaries forever. That rubber band will snap sooner or later. I don't see it snapping on the 'salaries' end, I see it snapping on the 'house prices' end.
Yeah fair points, lets wait and see! Thanks for watching
Australian government/politician's must adopt the following to provide a financial environment beneficial for Australian tax paying citizens. 1/ Non Australian citizens should not be allowed to own ANY type of property within Australia. This will help property affordability for all Australian citizens by removing this competition out of the market place. 2/ Inflict high taxes upon those non Australian citizens that do not make their properties available for rent within Australia to Australian citizens. This will increase the supply of rental properties available on the open market and will help stabilise and possibly decrease cost to rent. It may also force overseas investors to sell their property which will help increase supply over demand which in turn will help bring down property prices. All of the above could be implemented within weeks following the stoke of a pen. Our politicians live in a different world to the citizens that employ them.
I will add to your list and say corporations should not be allowed to buy single family homes. They are competing with individuals and pushing them out of them market.
I work for myself repairing in wealthy areas and my work demand has reduced by 50% over the last 6 months and i have not seen that before in 19 years (other than being locked down for covid) of working for myself. So yes the wealthy are over extended now as most are leveraged to the hilt. So one to two moves up in interest rates will bring about the crash. Hint: watch the boat sales and holiday homes sales websites for an uptick in sales. This will happen just before the crash as the over leveraged sell off their toys to stay afloat. I have watched for the last 6 months and just a slight uptick but that will change with the next rate rise.
all that will be bought off for record prices and ....
Please add the transcript to this talk. Thanks.
Thank god we have 30 year fixed rate mortgages in the US. I have a 2.4% 30 year mortgage. No surprises with interest rate changes. That coupled with the cost of housing in Australia is why I didn’t stay in Australia after working there 4 years.
If only we had that option in Australia, right? The idea of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 2.4% is incredibly appealing, especially with the way it offers stability and predictability over the long term. No surprises with interest rate changes can make a huge difference in planning your financial future.
But does it create a bigger gap on the rich and poor? 30 year fixed. Rich can buy anytime and refinance to get a new 30 year fixed. Using equity every time.
yeah, but housing taxes and insurances are being jacked up bigtime there.
Australia doesn’t have 30000 property taxes like USA. Or no company wanting to insure. Have to replace your roof every 10 years in Miami.
Your mortgage @2.4% is more of an asset than your house is!:)
Aust average is about twice of the US??? 400K ish there and 1 million for Melb/Sydney on approx 50-70K salaries here???? Debt is 1 trill Aust, and 34 Trill US and spiraling and personal CC debt and general debt is same going up and up YET, no crash or recession for over 30 years thanks to printing and this is sending everything up but with less real value... IMPLOSION DUE...
The rising debt levels in both countries, despite no significant economic crash or recession, could be attributed to various economic policies, including quantitative easing (money printing). The impact of such policies often leads to decreased real value of money and increased asset prices.
The US doesn’t only have housing to create wealth whereas Australia on the other hand.
Totally agree and I've had the same opinion for years. I cannot make any sense on the sunshine coast the average being $800k or 1mil for a 1acre house. As you say on earnings of 50 to 70000 a year. Just nuts. When will it stop? Maybe soon as China crashes ?
In Bitcoin the price of housing has crashed. In AUD housing has gone up. The problem is the currency debasement of AUD. How much does the RBA have in mortgage securities? This AUD based boom is funded by the RBA. What game are they playing?
True its all relative. thanks for watching.
What is the relevance of the Bitcoin price?
There is no relevance. Bitcoin is absolute garbage and now proven to not even be an inflation hedge. So where is the value?
I think another problem is that the corporate sector has fooled successive governments into thinking we have a labour shortage .But if you research “ghost Jobs” you will discover that labour demand is over inflated and the skills shortage is a fallacy. Australian businesses always seem to look desperate for workers but don’t recognise overseas qualifications anyway and migrants who settle in Australia end up working in take away food delivery or driving taxis.
The crash will come from the fragility in the financial system, and the economic slowdown the housing market is creating. Banks are under capitalised. Every boom in history has ended in a bust eventually, and the bigger the boom the harder the bust.
Thanks for watching 🙌
yep, just while everyone is enjoying massive gains, the carpet will be pulled. Those with debts will be hurt the most.
The broader property sector is thinking like the Chinese economy. Despite huge unaffordable prices, FOMO.
How’s that working out now?
Works very well if you own property, has the opposite effect if you don't.
They have been increasing the housing bubble in Australia through high immigration.
High levels of immigration can indeed have a significant impact on housing demand, contributing to price increases and potentially exacerbating affordability issues, especially in major cities where immigrants tend to congregate. This is due to a straightforward economic principle: as demand increases (in this case, for housing), and if supply does not keep pace, prices are likely to rise.
Australia has historically relied on immigration as a key driver of population growth and economic development. Immigrants contribute to the labor force, consumer spending, and, significantly, the demand for housing. This increased demand can lead to higher property prices and rents, particularly in areas where housing supply is constrained by geographical limitations, regulatory hurdles, or slow construction rates.
However, it's also essential to consider that immigration is only one of several factors influencing the housing market. Other elements include interest rates, availability of credit, investment activity, and government policies related to housing supply and affordability. For instance, policies that encourage the construction of new housing, zoning laws, and incentives for first-time homebuyers can also significantly impact the market.
While high immigration can contribute to demand pressures on housing, addressing the affordability challenge requires a multifaceted approach. This might include measures to increase the housing supply, improve affordability through financial assistance programs, and ensure that infrastructure development keeps pace with population growth.
In summary, while immigration does play a role in shaping housing demand in Australia, it's part of a complex set of factors affecting the housing market. Effective management of the housing market and addressing affordability issues necessitate comprehensive policies that consider both the demand and supply sides of the equation.
@@MortgageBrokerAustralia this sounds like a chat GPT reply. The "In Summary" is the giveaway.
@@OfficialSolDios it is lol, high immigration is the primary reason. we just hit 27 million people 20 YEARS before it was predicted in 2002. Australia is fucked.
Elephant in the room is immigration. Effect is high rents, higher property prices, inflation leadinf to higher rents and so on...cascading cluster F
@@boxedogunfortunately you are correct, we never asked for this. Australia was was much better in the 80’s and 90’s, before the floodgates opened. Quality of life was better.
Getting over our heads in debt. We have been over for over 2 decades. 200% household debt to income is just ludicrous.
Good point, thanks for watching
Why have house stock numbers remained super low compared to demand for years!!! It’s a ludicrous mis-management of land resource and construction capacity in Australia!
The lack of supply has uneccesary driver of horrendous criminal price of property
The persistent low numbers of housing stock compared to demand in Australia can be attributed to several factors. These include land use regulations, which can restrict the amount of land available for development, and challenges in the construction sector, such as labour shortages and increased material costs. Additionally, investment patterns and government policies can influence the property market, sometimes leading to a focus on certain types of developments over others. Addressing these issues to balance supply and demand is a complex task, involving policy changes, economic strategies, and perhaps a shift in focus towards different types of housing developments.
It is only a matter of time before people can not afford the 1)rent 2)loan repayment s3)rates/taxes/fees and the whole house of cards comes undone
Federal government had a 20 billion $ surplus. Pretty sure none of it went to paying down the debt. Common sense financially in a Federal government is prettymuch a fantasy that people hope for and never arrives.
Thanks for watching 🙌
"How the Australian Housing Crash Will Happen" - Such a misleading title.
Thanks for watching 🙌
Catfished!
Haha yep. This has been the topic for a decade, but dreams are free though 😂
Australian house prices are not going to crash until supply is higher than demand. So many immigrants need a home, and they are still pouring in. Hardly any homes are being built. Of course anything is possible, but more than likely house prices are going to keep rising.
I don't see a crash. I see reduction to up to 30% at most in capital cities. People waiting for a crash of 50% are going to be waiting a lifetime.
They will force people to work at home, which will create isolation,then they will make heaps on flooding the market with cheaper renovated office's,and the ordinary investors will be forced to drop rent or sell up,or offer there sweetener to own a percentage ,and eventually own more than you,hold on for the ride, first home owners, the crash will come, what goes up too fast will come down harder
Thanks for watching 🙌
If interest rates come down it helps people with home loans to pay the debt and keep the property. Which helps property prices stay where they are or increase. If Federal government increases their Debt it may interfere with interest rates in the future in a negative way.
Very true, your point about the relationship between interest rates, home loan affordability, and property prices is well-taken and will be in a video Im going to publish next week. Lower interest rates do indeed make it easier for homeowners to manage their mortgage repayments, which in turn can support or even increase property values. This is because cheaper borrowing costs can stimulate demand for housing, as more people find they can afford to take out loans to buy homes.
one way to solve it. build more parks and tents
18.6yr cycle.. peak coming in 26.
Market cycles can be influenced by a wide range of unpredictable economic, political, and social factors.
2026 will drop for sure
Wow, I also follow this cycle
We are on the verge of this happening. Next 3 months would see a huge unwind.
has everyone forgotten the the 1990's????????????????
This is history repeating itself, in the 90's there was a realestate boom, then interest rates jumped up to 19% and a very large percentage of people couldn't afford their mortgages, the houses became worth less than they owed......... supply and demand resulted in massive sell offs which drove prices DOWN. Most homeowners I have spoken to are VERY HIGHLY geared, and increase of mortgage interested rates of 2% and people cannot afford their mortgage...................
In the 1970's a mortgage was equivalent to 4yrs income, today it's closer to 10yrs income.............. government claims 4.2% CPI/inflation but doesn't calculated FOOD or ENERGY into that calculation.
I see dark clouds approaching but if you wear woollen socks to bed you will be totally fine ;-)
Remember is not property prices going up but more the loss of buying power of the $$$ which is losing its value.
Thanks for the view. It's useful to reflect on past economic cycles, like the 1990s, as they remind us that while the market can fluctuate, it also offers opportunities for prepared investors to thrive. Understanding history helps us navigate the future more wisely, ensuring we're better equipped to handle shifts in the market and protect our investments. Thanks again!
@@MortgageBrokerAustralia Indeed it's obvious that "investors" will always take advantage of other peoples downfalls...................but we don't live in a fair or perfect world.
Good and property will last the test of time
It's "interest" rate, not "inch-rest" rate.
🤣
they stay strong otherwise everybody else would buy...the increase is controlled national interest related.
it cant collapse with 100k+ new immigrants being brought in every month
Aussie economy is pretty resilient. Also Aussie gov has a choice to crash or create more shortage, and they will choose shortages.
As housing prices increase while wages stagnate. Homelessness and poverty will increase as housing affordability becomes impossible for the younger generation. Only large corporations with lots of capital will own them. Rent will also become unrealistic to afford. Shanty towns will start to develop in areas around cities. All while there will be perfectly liveable housing remaining empty. This happened during the great depression. All the infrastructure, buildings and the means to produce food hadn’t changed, they were still there. But the monetary system and economic greed through the use of a central bank and a stock market exchange caused this. Banks through the fractional reserve banking system have printed money in the form of a promissory note to use as mortgage loans. Then charge interest on the mortgage loan that they printed in the first place. This along with uncontrolled immigration and scarcity has over inflated the housing market. But as long as banks make billions of dollars profit by creating poverty and homelessness.
No bank can afford any downturn in property prices
It will keep going up provided we keep bringing in rich immigrants and we keep our living standards up. Property is still a good investment.
The influx of wealthy immigrants can indeed contribute to housing demand and price increases, especially in major cities and desirable areas. Maintaining high living standards and a welcoming environment for immigrants can sustain demand for property, making it a potentially good investment
It’s no over the government bringing 650, 000 thousand people in 1 year you do the sums 😉😉😉😉
Yeah, bringing in a large number of people, like the 650,000 mentioned, in a single year does indeed present significant implications, especially in areas such as housing, infrastructure, and public services.
The Elephant in the Housing Game is called ''the tax dodge''
While that exists prices will only go one way until the renters all become homeless.
Federal governments have a choice. They can either bring in workers as immigrants who will possibly never own their own houses and need money from the government to survive or the Government can choose to bring in rich people who buy their own house 🏠 and hopefully get a job so they will less likely need government money to survive. As in the Federal governments choice is effectively to choose between turning Australia 🇦🇺 into a poverty stricken rathole where millions of people never own their own houses 🏘 and have to get money from the Federal government to survive or to try to have Australia 🇦🇺 be something better than a rathole. Anyway the government has chosen to make Australia 🇦🇺 a rathole so what people think does not really matter. The majority of new immigrants will not be winning the lotto to buy a house in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane. Space aliens 👽 will not come from another solar system to give them money to buy a house in Australia. Thats just how it is.😊.
Very true, Immigration policy and its impact on national housing markets and economic health is a complex and multifaceted issue. The challenge for any country, including Australia, lies in finding a balance that supports economic growth and social cohesion while also addressing concerns about housing affordability and social welfare.
i see your opinion is a little biased towards happiest people these days; speculators, mortgage brokers, politicians and real estate agents. well.. it's middle of May 2024.
Price corrections, not crash, only up! up! up!
Interest rates aren't the problem, they are still below normal at 4.35% and there is no justification to cut them going forward. House prices are the elephant in the room. RBA should keep raising rates until the Government decides to do its job.
Good point, thanks for watching.
A crash is a coming, it'll be caused by global economic factors. Our economy is a little too dependant on a few export commodities and too leveraged on debt. If commodity prices drop and exports decline the $AUD drops, inflation goes up, interest rates up, unemployment goes up and housing goes down.
Your perspective highlights concerns about the potential impact of global economic factors on the Australian economy, particularly focusing on the country's reliance on a few key export commodities and high levels of debt. The scenario you're describing suggests that a downturn in commodity prices could lead to a chain reaction: a weakening Australian dollar, rising inflation, higher interest rates, increased unemployment, and a decline in the housing market. This viewpoint underscores the interconnectedness of global and domestic economic factors and the importance of monitoring these trends for potential impacts on the national economy and the real estate sector.
You're dreaming, keep saving for your next house
@@Benji-zv5ev Keep borrowing lots to buy homes Benji, that way I can buy them off you during the fire sale for half price.
Keep saving for the boat that sailed in 2020 @@Leo-vk6qm
@@Leo-vk6qmthere is no way the government will allow the house prices to drop by 50%. Australians population is dependent on their housing for wealth and many will suffer if a massive crash did happen . The government will create insensitive for ppl to enter the market .
Australia 😂. Went to Sydney to see old friends after 18 years. I swear I was in India or Sri Lanka. Even signage was in their language. No thanks 😂
Wow I have never seen public signage in Sydney in any of the Indian or Sri Lankan languages. Maybe some government offices, always in addition to English!
@@yasht9go sounds like you don’t go out of your house much, ride your scooter or Uber car around parramatta, Blacktown, Toongabbie etc
@ev0wat as a Parramatta resident,there are no street signs in anything other than English. There might be some signage near the Hindu temple and there's business signs in Indian languages in Harris Park.
This guy thinks Harris Park is Australia.
The kalergi plan in full swing.
It will crash when more than half the country wants to stay at albos
Good.
Thanks for watching
People have been saying this since Steve keen. Still hasn't happened
We have been waiting for this crash...smart investment ignore the noise and follow the data...I worry more about missing out on the growth! No crash guys, price correction with dropping prices maybe? But not in 2024!
Your perspective highlights a common sentiment in property investment: focusing on data and trends rather than speculation or 'noise'. The idea of a 'crash' in the housing market is often subject to debate. While some may anticipate a significant downturn, others, like yourself, expect more of a correction than a crash. This could mean a moderation in price increases or slight decreases in certain areas, rather than a broad, severe drop in property values. It's important to stay informed with reliable data and market analysis, especially in a volatile market. Missing out on potential growth is a valid concern, and each investor must balance the risks and opportunities based on their individual strategy and market conditions.
lol, ok mate. Ain't no one investing without taping into NG, that's 100% a problem...
Well, you failed at step 1. There is no housing "market".
8 minutes to say I don't now....
Crash what crash. They been saying this last 10 years or more
You are quite right! The media has been 'predicting' the Australian property market armageddon for decades- but still nothing! In fact the market is performing quite strongly…
It’s a healthy market because the government has invited overseas investors to buy, buy, buy!!
Thanks for watching 🙌
Yeah, that's the way to go, go, go and then gone.
Ha ha the lucky country!
Will probably drop when they walk back the China & India FTAs which included uncapped migration. Those numvers are not in the immigration caps....only if people knew how Australia will be overwhelmed.
FTAs, such as those with China and India, can have implications for immigration and housing demand. If these agreements include provisions for increased migration, this could further drive demand for housing. Revising such agreements or immigration policies could potentially impact the market, though such changes are often complex and politically sensitive.
Pauline Hanson knew 30 years ago and no one believed her and if we did we got shit for it. So Australians can reap what they have seen now. How you vote is the most important thing Australians should pearn about, but don't. So to bad, so sad. Invest in learning politics.
this all started in 1971 , with the dropping of the gold standard , plenty of graphs out there . a good place to start is google wtf happened in 1971
Thanks for the tip!
BS. You fail to consider many factors.
You’re selling mortgages, of course you are selling reasonable stability.
Not like this covid threw a spanner in the mix , all new territory.
Hey, thanks for chiming in! You're absolutely right, COVID sure did throw a giant spanner in the works, followed by 13 consecutive rate rises. But the property market has proven to be really resilient. The future looks bright!
the bubble will burst and it's going to push us all into a hole where we are not going to get out of for 6 yrs. many people will leave Australia
Thank you for sharing your thoughts! We understand that concerns about the housing market can be overwhelming. However, Australia’s property market has seen cycles before and has always bounced back.
Course you wouldn’t say housing is going to crash haha
Thanks for watching 🙌
It won’t crash 100%
Who essentially predicted any of the previous/current property booms in Australia?
No one basically.
So who will predict the next property boom in Australia?
No one basically.
Of course...if you bought multiple properties 20 years ago...and ignored the doom sayers...and continued to hold through both the GFC and COVID then I guess you just got lucky though 😂
Indeed, accurately predicting property booms, their timing, magnitude, and duration, is notoriously difficult. Many factors influence the property market, including economic conditions, interest rates, population growth, and government policies, making precise predictions challenging.
The success stories of those who invested in property 20 years ago and held onto their investments through significant economic downturns like the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic highlight a key investment principle: long-term holding in real estate often leads to substantial gains. This is partly due to the general upward trend of property values over time, despite periodic downturns.
The notion of "getting lucky" by investing in real estate over the long term does have some merit, considering the unpredictable nature of booms and busts. However, it also underscores the importance of strategic investment decisions, risk tolerance, and sometimes, the benefit of patience and resilience in facing economic uncertainties.
While no one can predict with certainty when the next property boom will occur, history suggests that the Australian property market has a strong track record of long-term growth. This encourages investors to consider real estate as part of their investment portfolio, keeping in mind the risks and the importance of diversification to mitigate those risks.
Haha what are you talking about? I can give you at least 3 long-term property economists that predicted high growth. Multiple times. In specific locations.
I’ve been hearing doomsday property talk in Australia for 25 years. 😂
You should be talking rather than just reading. Boring 😴😴😴😴😴
Thanks for watching.
@@MortgageBrokerAustralia every time you get called out on any issue you just say thanks for watching proving how much of a tool you really are....
globalisational demand for local limited supply market = Higher and higher prices. When will it stop? when all australians sell to foreign states and we will no longer be called Straya
The pressure on housing prices due to global demand, especially in desirable locations, is a real concern. This demand, coupled with limited supply, can drive prices up significantly. The question of when this will stop is complex and depends on multiple factors, including policy decisions aimed at increasing supply or regulating foreign ownership.
You obviously have limited knowledge of Economics. What I nice and simple world you live in.