Mod-02 Lec-04 Forecasting -- Winter's model, causal models, Goodness of forecast, Aggregate Planning

Operations and Supply Chain Management by Prof. G. Srinivasan , Department of Management Studies, IIT Madras. For more details on NPTEL visit nptel.iitm.ac.in
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[@arijitraha3845]

This is how subjects should be thought in class. This is the kind of teachers that country needs - not only in IITs but in every institution. Teachers like Prof. Srinvasan is a blessing.

[@harjotsinghsaini1085]

in winters model problem, while calculating a2, we have to multiply alpha by d2/c2 i.e 22/.14 that gives 157.14 , but sir, you u divided 53/.34 to calculate 156, which is wrong. however, teh value of a2, that you ultimately calculate is correct i.e, 159.43. had we actually used 156 (as u showed), the a2 value would have been 159.2 . Thankyou sir

[@SushhiilKumar]

Absolutely correct

[@gopinathxyz]

Good.. Thanks for calling it out. I too was confused there

[@deepaksivashanmugam4148]

Thanks for your upload and sharing us for free such useful knowledge for the learning of operations and supply chain management.

[@nirajvyas9997]

Thanks
Please give me your Divine blessings

[@aghaarash2008]

Thanks for uploading valuable forecasting examples. Shouldn't F13 be 59,15 ?

[@ImmiTheKhan]

39:10 is 3.31 sir.

[@gunjankhanna3118]

how to forecast for more than one period for set of data not showing any trend?

[@afridahmed5140]

Damn that intro music

[@aman2426]

What is the difference between a and c in winter's model?

[@GMIqbalMahmud]

a is the level of the demand where c is the average of the seasonality index

[@pratapreddy1993]

how to compute exponential smoothing constant for this purpose

[@ashwanikumar7417]

What value of Dt+1 have u taken while calculating C6

[@VibhorVerma28]

22

[@pavankumart4463]

how can someone work 16hours a day? tho its just assumption its illogical

[@z.c.w.7332]

Just discovered this series of lectures, would someone give me a review (if you've gone through a few videos)? I am compiling a list of videos and some input would be appreciated.
Also, is there a textbook that corresponds with these lectures?
Thanks!

[@varunrajasekar2317]

Yes , there is a textbook which is authored by the instructor of this course.

[@pujanagpure4987]

F3? Initially it should be F2 right??

[@GMIqbalMahmud]

This is an advantage of Winter's Model to be able to calculate values without calculating every other value before that particular value. So he escaped F2 and went directly to F3. Similarly, he calculated F13 just after F3, without calculating F4 to F12.

[@saichand-q7d]

F2 =( a1+b1)*c1 we assumed all these initial values so you can calculate it directly. We calculated a2 b2 using the formula so we estimated f3