Have heard speculation that their not publishing it yet because the model places most it’s wait on non polling factors which would leave Kamala in the same or slightly worse place than Biden.
I'm so glad you guys decided to post this one on RUclips so we could see the video element. Wait. So. This is posted on RUclips as an audio only companion to the audio only Spotify which we also have to subscribe to in order to not see ads Brilliant move! Bravo!
Something about the Trump add that comes off as EXTREMELY low effort is that the off-voice has a Spanish accent (like in: from Spain). I know some Latino people that can get very alienated by that
Thanks, Carlos. As a hispanic from South Florida, it frustrates me to no end how politicians approach our/my demographic. Most of what I hear is geared for either the Mexican or Puerto Rican communities. Mexicans, are/were generally economic-migrants and come from a very different political environment, socio-economic class, and even racial makeup than most migrants from the caribbean or south america. And Puerto Ricans aren't even immigrants. So to just have Juan from the west coast office do an exaggerated accent on the voiceover and call it a day, to me, feels like pandering and performative. Hispanic people are not the monolithic lump politicians would like us to be. Just as the Irish, Jewish, or Armenian communities can't be easily pidgeon-holed, nor can you do the same to us. We don't even agree on being called "latino" - don't get me started on "latinx." Why not just address the issues that effect us, provide policy solutions to problems that effect us all, and occasionally throw in a random brown person in the camera frame for inclusion. I would prefer that over this huge push for "Latino Voters" - whatever that means.
The ultimate irony about latinx is that it was originally aligned with 90s liberation movements for hispanic lgbt activists where the X was very much intended to be anti-grammatical to prove that we existed and wouldn't be silenced. Suddenly 30 years later it's "invented by white progressives" and people miss the entire point of being a name _that we chose for ourselves_ rather than it being forced on us.
not just religious dogma. it's also about how well you understand civics, how a democratic system functions, and what your role in it is. when you have more than half of the population thinking Presidents are the makers and breakers of inflation, it's not really a spiritual issue :)))
@@anamakesthingspeople should just explain inflation like if you have a platinum credit card and you were giving it with zero balance and an unlimited credit line and then you run It Up 8. 4 trillion dollars with super high interest. Who has to pay for that the one left holding it which is US citizens because one man wanted to give billionaires tax cuts and wants to double down and do that again that does absolutely nothing for the rest of Americans trickle down never did work they just wound up going from 20% more than the average citizen to CEOs making $360 per cent more price gouging as to make up for their losses during covid and they have no intention of bringing that back down. Inflation is 100% a reflection on who ran up the bill and who has to pay for it. Them wanting to take Social Security Medicare and Medicaid away and now are trying to do it for public schools let's get real CRT with cellular reprogramming technology teachers weren't teaching Furbies that made in China algorithm was
@@anamakesthingsI’m in complete agreement with you. My comment doesn’t exclude your logical observations about a foundational problem facing Americans, that being the widespread ignorance of the electorate about how the world operates, specifically the U.S. economy and government operations. My comment/complaint only addressed a growing subset of our low information voters who are generationally conditioned to not look further than their faith leaders for voting instructions. As you alluded to, intellectual curiosity is not the strong suit of many of our fellow citizens. The dogma(s) I referenced built the cultural infrastructure of religion, which is highly susceptible to corruption and misuse by all sorts of unsavory types to, in this example, influence voters. Full disclosure, I am Atheist with a healthy distrust of Theists. My hypothesis is that organized religion (defined as two or more gathered together for the purpose of suppressing logic or influencing behavior) has been the primary root of evil since before humankind first harnessed fire.☮️💟
@@wisdomsleuth77777 Well that explanation is wrong. Inflation is caused by supply and demand. You're explaining the national debt with a credit card - better analogy is a mortgage for that. Inflation could be explained by a lemonade stand. In the winter it's cold not many people want it, so you drop the price (deflation) so you can ger rid of it for some money. In summer everyone wants lemonade so you can sell it for a higher price (inflation), especially as you get down towards the end. Price gouging is when you are the only seller of any liquid in the desert so people have to pay whatever you ask or die of thirst. You have no morals so take all the money they have. Supply chain problems are when your mum won't drive you to the shops to get more lemons!
@@nomadpurple6154 I can tend to agree with that explanation but as far as the mortgage at least you're getting something out of it versus just running up the debt to give billionaires tax cuts you're not seeing Returns on that because trickle down was a joke. Then the next person that comes along is held responsible for paying that debt that they did not run up. And they were still price gouging technically during covid with the fuel because I remember when gas was 70 cents a gallon and that's when they were having to pay a reasonable sum for the barrels of oil then during covid it went down to negative Barrel so they should have been not charging as much as they were they were just licking their chops waiting for the opportunity to Jack prices up and they got caught laughing about it saying they had no intentions of bringing the prices down. I'm definitely looking forward to them doing something about price gouging because that is just undermining middle-class stability
Even if latino voters are citizens, they know people or have relatives that would benefit from legal migration and path to citizenship. Don't discount it
Is Galen and the rest of the 538 really on the side of Trump. They always “find” the negative for Harris and the Democrats. Never talk about Trumps rambling and JDs stupidity.
Harris will have to maintain consistency and slow growth. It's the change in perception that people latch into. She can blow up to be great in the electorates esteem but one misstep a week later and crash
Where is Carlos’s Latino accent? That accent in that ad is kinda offensive. I think Harris and the Dems got to stop using it. Either do an ad in all Spanish or just have the music have a brown face but drop the accent. The English speaking generations after their immigrant parents or grandparents have regional accents not that generic stereotypical offensive one.
@qwertyca I Unsubbed as well but that's because of the video issue And by video issue, I mean spitting in their audiences face. There's podcasts that get 300 views that put more time and effort into production. And they aren't backed by the fucking Disney Corporation. It's shortsighted and honestly, embarrassing
![URGENT!! Latest Trump News [8AM] 10/27/2024 | 🅼🆂🅽🅱️🅲 BREAKING NEWS Today october 27, 2024](/img/1.gif)
No model? The least you could do is have Elliot on the pod to discuss why it's taking so long and describe the journey
So no model? *smashes phone and skateboard*
yeah it's really weird. they said they were waiting for her to become the official nominee which happened like a week ago.
Have heard speculation that their not publishing it yet because the model places most it’s wait on non polling factors which would leave Kamala in the same or slightly worse place than Biden.
@@Guest-ie1jk Nate Silver started that rumor. It's definitely possible, but he's not exactly unbiased so I would be skeptical.
It's clear at this point that their model had no idea how to handle a candidate swap, so they're scrambling now.
I'm so glad you guys decided to post this one on RUclips so we could see the video element.
Wait. So. This is posted on RUclips as an audio only companion to the audio only Spotify which we also have to subscribe to in order to not see ads
Brilliant move! Bravo!
Very insightful stuff from Carlos, really appreciate it!
Something about the Trump add that comes off as EXTREMELY low effort is that the off-voice has a Spanish accent (like in: from Spain). I know some Latino people that can get very alienated by that
Got to love that they already had a plan called “Coconut Protocol”!
Thanks, Carlos. As a hispanic from South Florida, it frustrates me to no end how politicians approach our/my demographic. Most of what I hear is geared for either the Mexican or Puerto Rican communities. Mexicans, are/were generally economic-migrants and come from a very different political environment, socio-economic class, and even racial makeup than most migrants from the caribbean or south america. And Puerto Ricans aren't even immigrants. So to just have Juan from the west coast office do an exaggerated accent on the voiceover and call it a day, to me, feels like pandering and performative. Hispanic people are not the monolithic lump politicians would like us to be. Just as the Irish, Jewish, or Armenian communities can't be easily pidgeon-holed, nor can you do the same to us. We don't even agree on being called "latino" - don't get me started on "latinx." Why not just address the issues that effect us, provide policy solutions to problems that effect us all, and occasionally throw in a random brown person in the camera frame for inclusion. I would prefer that over this huge push for "Latino Voters" - whatever that means.
The ultimate irony about latinx is that it was originally aligned with 90s liberation movements for hispanic lgbt activists where the X was very much intended to be anti-grammatical to prove that we existed and wouldn't be silenced. Suddenly 30 years later it's "invented by white progressives" and people miss the entire point of being a name _that we chose for ourselves_ rather than it being forced on us.
Que padre wey 😅😂😅
Why do some podcasts have video and some dont??
They haven't had an editor or something for the last few weeks/months
Because 538 hates its audience. They also suspended the model for a month now 😂
Nate leaves and everything falls apart overnight 😪
"always reminding us of your youth, Galen" 😂😂😂
I'm gonna wait to see what the Dos Equis poll has to say
It’s scary when people are led to vote against their own interests. Never underestimate the power of religious dogma.
not just religious dogma. it's also about how well you understand civics, how a democratic system functions, and what your role in it is.
when you have more than half of the population thinking Presidents are the makers and breakers of inflation, it's not really a spiritual issue :)))
@@anamakesthingspeople should just explain inflation like if you have a platinum credit card and you were giving it with zero balance and an unlimited credit line and then you run It Up 8. 4 trillion dollars with super high interest. Who has to pay for that the one left holding it which is US citizens because one man wanted to give billionaires tax cuts and wants to double down and do that again that does absolutely nothing for the rest of Americans trickle down never did work they just wound up going from 20% more than the average citizen to CEOs making $360 per cent more price gouging as to make up for their losses during covid and they have no intention of bringing that back down. Inflation is 100% a reflection on who ran up the bill and who has to pay for it. Them wanting to take Social Security Medicare and Medicaid away and now are trying to do it for public schools let's get real CRT with cellular reprogramming technology teachers weren't teaching Furbies that made in China algorithm was
@@anamakesthingsI’m in complete agreement with you. My comment doesn’t exclude your logical observations about a foundational problem facing Americans, that being the widespread ignorance of the electorate about how the world operates, specifically the U.S. economy and government operations. My comment/complaint only addressed a growing subset of our low information voters who are generationally conditioned to not look further than their faith leaders for voting instructions. As you alluded to, intellectual curiosity is not the strong suit of many of our fellow citizens. The dogma(s) I referenced built the cultural infrastructure of religion, which is highly susceptible to corruption and misuse by all sorts of unsavory types to, in this example, influence voters. Full disclosure, I am Atheist with a healthy distrust of Theists. My hypothesis is that organized religion (defined as two or more gathered together for the purpose of suppressing logic or influencing behavior) has been the primary root of evil since before humankind first harnessed fire.☮️💟
@@wisdomsleuth77777 Well that explanation is wrong. Inflation is caused by supply and demand. You're explaining the national debt with a credit card - better analogy is a mortgage for that.
Inflation could be explained by a lemonade stand. In the winter it's cold not many people want it, so you drop the price (deflation) so you can ger rid of it for some money. In summer everyone wants lemonade so you can sell it for a higher price (inflation), especially as you get down towards the end. Price gouging is when you are the only seller of any liquid in the desert so people have to pay whatever you ask or die of thirst. You have no morals so take all the money they have. Supply chain problems are when your mum won't drive you to the shops to get more lemons!
@@nomadpurple6154 I can tend to agree with that explanation but as far as the mortgage at least you're getting something out of it versus just running up the debt to give billionaires tax cuts you're not seeing Returns on that because trickle down was a joke. Then the next person that comes along is held responsible for paying that debt that they did not run up. And they were still price gouging technically during covid with the fuel because I remember when gas was 70 cents a gallon and that's when they were having to pay a reasonable sum for the barrels of oil then during covid it went down to negative Barrel so they should have been not charging as much as they were they were just licking their chops waiting for the opportunity to Jack prices up and they got caught laughing about it saying they had no intentions of bringing the prices down. I'm definitely looking forward to them doing something about price gouging because that is just undermining middle-class stability
Carlos and Galen = Carlos and Cecil from Welcome to Nightvale 😁
Even if latino voters are citizens, they know people or have relatives that would benefit from legal migration and path to citizenship. Don't discount it
27:00 my guy pulled out the Sarah Palin “O’Biden” lmao
Go Harris!
Harris for President!!!!!!!!!!!!!
¡¡¡¡¡Harris para Presidenta!!!!!
When new model?
Video gone forever?
Probably. It's been months now...
very informative. Generational Latino/a views differ.
Latinos for 💙💙💙💙💙💙2024
Is Galen and the rest of the 538 really on the side of Trump. They always “find” the negative for Harris and the Democrats. Never talk about Trumps rambling and JDs stupidity.
You all act like we can live together like this - we can’t
Model??
Latinos for Harris 💙💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Not a good explanation
Dump Trump!
Just poat the video ffs, you do on clips, why not the full podcast itself its frustrating for visual people like me not having the video sucks.
Because they hate you
Harris will have to maintain consistency and slow growth. It's the change in perception that people latch into. She can blow up to be great in the electorates esteem but one misstep a week later and crash
Latinos for Trump/Vance 2024❤
Where is Carlos’s Latino accent? That accent in that ad is kinda offensive. I think Harris and the Dems got to stop using it. Either do an ad in all Spanish or just have the music have a brown face but drop the accent. The English speaking generations after their immigrant parents or grandparents have regional accents not that generic stereotypical offensive one.
This guy seems angry and chatising instead of providing analysis.
Republican ad better. Do both English n Spanish
The 538 democrat hacks podcast ✌️ unsubbing
Can't handle the truth eh?
@qwertyca I Unsubbed as well but that's because of the video issue
And by video issue, I mean spitting in their audiences face. There's podcasts that get 300 views that put more time and effort into production.
And they aren't backed by the fucking Disney Corporation. It's shortsighted and honestly, embarrassing
Yo 16k views ahahha 538 saving America one view at a time ahahhah Disney owned failures sad