Will The LCMS Be Gone By 2041? What Can We Do?
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- Опубликовано: 1 мар 2023
- This is a presentation I made that I hope will start a conversation about the future of our church body. Let's be kind, encouraging, and intentional in how we talk about moving forward!
While I don’t know if it is even large enough to move the needle, I would anecdotally point to the movement of young people migrating to the historic, liturgical churches. There is an appetite for tradition in the RUclips world, where apologetic/educational channels are burgeoning. I have friends that have become Eastern Orthodox, one just become catholic, another Lutheran, and still more Anglican. Millennials are discovering tradition, and are leaving none denominational churches, at least to some degree. It may be too little too late, but I encourage Lutherans to embrace social media and make quality Lutheran content available; many people have no idea what Lutherans believe, and I was included, before discovering the likes of Jordan Cooper and Bryan Wulfmueller. Lutheranism is beautiful, it should be shared!
This is probably one of my favorite comments on this video. I have no idea who you are, but your maturity and tone makes me deeply hope you are either entering into ministry OR are making content yourself. :) Blessings to you, brother!
This is spot on! I completely agree with this comment.
My husband and I are millennials who joined the LCMS two years ago. If we hadn’t decided to look into church history on our own, we never would have known that Lutherans existed. Sadly, we have come to see there is a huge stigma that surrounds looking into church history in Christian circles and that seems to be the key to keep many ignorant to the fundamentals of our faith and the importance of preserving them.
That being said, younger generations need to know the history to gain an appreciation for the liturgy, the Eucharist, and traditions that have been preserved but are slowly being compromised on. The trouble is there is a huge deficit of knowledgeable folks talking about it, especially on a congregational/laymen level. LCMS congregations need to be better educated at every stage(not just grade school) so they know what makes them Lutherans and why in hopes that we can keep ourselves from falling prey to methods of “just getting butts in seats” and embracing every other modern development comes down the line.
I say all this just to share an observation from our vantage point at our local church. Teaching folks about Lutherans and our Christian heritage is key to keeping this tradition alive, but we have to continually educate our congregations well so the outreach is more prevalent and effective whether it’s on RUclips or out in the community.
No longer practicing Lutheran here. I feel like I was abandoned - I can't find a Lutheran Church within an hours drive that has a traditional liturgical service that has not been relegated to the early morning hours or Saturday. Has anyone else had this experience and stopped attending because of it? The Liturgy was what kept me coming back.
This is too common a reported occurrence and it is regrettable continually to read. Lord, have mercy.
This is a great presentation of the state of things! I love that this just oozes with passion to. It's great so see someone speaking so much about something they care about.
Adult convert from northern New England District. I've never seen more than 100 Lutherans in one place. We have churches that seat 1,000 with congregations of 30. On the money here!
Thanks for the feedback!
I’m coming from a Baptist background, but recently started looking into Lutheran theology and started attending the ladies Bible study at the local LCMS church here this past fall. My husband and I went to a couple Wednesday evening advent services, we’re thinking about switching, but then the Pastor decided to take a call to the DR to help train new pastors down there and starting in two weeks the LCMS will have an interim pastor, bad timing on our part, but I am praying that the pulpit is filled by a godly man. It’s a little discouraging to hear that it might take a couple years to get someone.
One thing I’ve noticed is that there doesn’t seem to be any youth activities other than the catechism classes for kids so I was planning on my kids still attending youth group at the Baptist church we are currently going to. It would be nice if there was more of a youth outreach going on. Is it normal to not have anything for the youth in LCMS churches?
We can track 5 generations of Lutheran on both sides of my family. Great Great Grandfather was a missionary Rev. from Germany who helped establish 8+ Lutheran churches in North America and all the generations after that have had Lutheran church workers. My parents have 4 children and 7 grandchildren of which only 2 children and 1 grandchild are still LCMS at this point. I can't pinpoint my parents doing anything wrong. They did a great job raising us in the truth and sending us to Lutheran schools so it is sad to see and experience for them.
My generation not having as many kids will play a factor long run too.
Just curious as to why the audience keeps chuckling when the idea of larger families is mentioned?
This is a very modern response, I’ve noticed, even coming from most Christians. When almost anyone hears about having bigger families - which to the modern ear means as many as four children - it’s treated as a burden that no rational or sane person would want.
I think because of my ex-Catholic background, the idea of big families has never seemed strange to me. But the vast majority of people I’ve ever talked to about having children seem to want no more than two. Even wanting four children is treated the same as wanting ten.
Then again, I’ve always lived in urban or suburban neighborhoods.
I'm too old for kids now but if I was in my 20's again I would have twice as many kids or more. Children are a blessing and I was robbed of that blessing because I wasn't thinking biblically about children.
"Pastor, how many children does Jesus want my wife to have?"
Because it's a room full of men who had their gems clipped.
Well done Joe!
This is definitely a very serious situation, and we should move as efficiently and effectively as possible to mitigate and turn the tide. That said, take heart! There are several reasons why I don't believe the end is near or that the situation is quite as dire as this video may make it appear. Here are my reasons:
First, retention trends are really only good for a generation at a time. If we estimate a generation at 25 years and subtract the 5-10 years or so for the current trend to become manifest, that gives us around 15-20 years left. Statistics show that when parents value church their kids are much more likely to do so when they are grown. A big part of our retention issue today is due to parents not valuing church in the late 90s/early 2000s. Many of those who are leaving are the children of those parents. Many of those who remain were brought up to appreciate church and are more likely to teach their children the same. As such, children who have not yet come of age today are likely to have a higher rate as young adults than those who have been coming of age in recent years.
Second, there's a larger dynamic going on we must consider. How many extra visitors turning into members does the ELCA get simply because it is the biggest Lutheran denomination in the US? On the flip side, how many has it turned off to Lutheranism as a whole because of their heterodoxy? Yet, it will not always be so. In 15-20 years or so, the LCMS will overtake the ELCA as the largest and de facto leader of Lutheranism in the US giving us all the benefits that come with it.
Third, and this is related to point 2, the decline of the Mainline. If there are 10 churches in town and 100 people looking for a church home, assuming an even distribution for the sake of a simple illustration, the LCMS church may get around 10 new members. However, if there are only 3 the LCMS church is likely to get more. If we are the only game in town, sure it is doubtful that we would get all 100 but it is likely that we would get even more. We are declining to be sure, but much of the Mainline is as well and at a significantly faster rate. Once a critical threshold is reached (again, probably 15-20 years from now) the landscape will have changed to such a degree that current projections for that point and after will likely prove to have been wildly inaccurate.
Interesting points! Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
While I believe confessional Lutheranism is the way to go. I think the rise of evangelical non denominational churches in the last 20 to 40 yrs has hurt us. One thing we can learn from other churches is their use of digital and social media to attract followers, as well as the way they do outreach within their communities. Thats a huge part of why these churches thrive. LCMS churches need to do more community outreach. I would also recommend having different ministries and offering more than just one Bible class a week within a church will help as well(for ex: hospital, youth, media ministries etc.) Congregations want to be involved in their churches. That doesn’t change who we are as far as our theology, doctrine, worship style etc. We just need to adapt in other ways.
we can only hope!!!!!
'
I and my three siblings were all raised and confirmed in the church, none of us want anything to do with it as adults.
Just curious, what turned you away from the LCMS?
Pastors enter ministry to be pastors, not CEO's, HR Directors and much of the rest of their job descriptions. Micro-parishes do not allow for pastors to be just pastors as they must literally run the entire parish. The answer: CONSOLIDATION. In my chosen field of pharmacy, retail, hospital and nursing facility pharmacies have long ago consolidated into larger more effective and more productive entities. In my town of Racine, WI we once had 55 pharmacies for 90,000 people. Today, we have 14 pharmacies for an area encompassing around 120,000 citizens. There would be NO way to staff 55 pharmacies and the same area has 7 LCMS parishes, several of which worship less than 50 people per week. Even the large parishes who were once 2,300 souls are now down to 700 souls with two pastors and a day school. My area needs ONE, large LCMS parish serving both orthodox liturgical and contemporary worship styles as well as consolidating the day school into a single, large campus. Geographically one parish complex could serve the entire area with minimum travel requirements, no more than 10 miles in any direction. We could thus optimally utilize available staff (pastors, teachers, assistants including lay volunteers to staff Elders, etc.). Such a large complex could afford to hire a REAL CEO, not a fake one who is untrained and unqualified to be a CEO, and the amount of ministry outreaches could quadruple or more without much issue. Consolidation means productivity gains and cost decreases. The key is to get everyone on board as well as to center the complex in the correct geographical location. How likely is this? I'm not holding my breath. But it WILL happen by choice or by force...once parishes cannot get a pastor or those with day schools cannot get teachers then it will happen in some way, shape and form. The problem with forced consolidation is that much of the necessary planning is bypassed in lieu of time expediency (bankruptcy looms for the smaller parishes with resulting panic) and thus the outcome is not as ideal as being proactive in such a process. Neighborhoods in urban settings EACH used to have a barber, butcher, bakery, pharmacy, grocery, shoe shop, shoe repair, hardware store, at least two taverns and more often than not, two or more churches. Look around today and see what's left as these other professions have left to consolidate and thus continue to be able to serve its people in the modern economy. Only a couple churches are left and they are mostly hurting....declining and as folks migrate outward, fewer choose to drive into the urban settings owing to time, convenience and yes, even crime. Until our leadership wakes up to this reality, we will continue to decline and folks will choose not to enter into our colleges and seminaries. Is there anyone else out there sharing this vision? Can anyone else see the forest for the trees and come to grips with the reality that as an Eli Lilly CEO once said, "The market gets what the market WANTS." And the Holy Spirit as well.
Good discussion of process issues and opportunities. Theology also has a big impact ; much of the traditional message is not resonating with
21 st century younger people.
Your presentation was informative but it felt like it isn't focusing on the biggest issue. You mentioned wearing a "CEO hat" so maybe an example would help. It would be like if a failing fast food chain wanted to increase its overall revenue by increasing stores while at the same time the fast food chain is hemorrhaging comparable store sales. Most investors wouldn't want to invest because even if the number of stores is increasing, you'll still have falling comparable store sales (signifying a core business problem) eventually receding back to your previous sinking revenue levels. The issue isn't the number of stores, it's the falling store sales aka the youth aren't showing up once they are old enough to gain a certain level of autonomy from their parents. While the talent retention aka Pastor shortage is a valid issue, the main issue is with keeping your customers aka congregation levels. Remember it's always cheaper to retain your customers than go out and get new ones.
Ironically, your presentation mirrors how many LCMS churches treat the young adult age ranges (your falling customer base). Many LCMS churches focus heavily on a select few age ranges: youth through confirmation and well established adults/senior citizens. There is little to no focus on creating a community with younger congregants at large as shown by the 80% drop off by age 20. I don't necessarily have a solution for this but the church as whole needs to do a better job of not forgetting young adults. It's almost as if the church expects them to disappear for a decade or more and then just pop back in and I don't see that as realistic. The church does a poor job of keeping up with them and creating communities of young adults, which naturally "pair up" young Lutheran men and women resulting in more children. Later on down the road, those children will then hopefully find Lutheran spouses of their own through the same social community that the church can help foster.
Great presentation not intending to harp on you by just giving my 2c.
Thanks for the feedback! Great wisdom.
Yes, Yeshua will have returned by that point.
The strange thing the church of England,the Methodist and the Presbyterian Church is looking to fail by 2040. what's the connection
How many lcms churches have a ministry in a prison near them? In the early 2000s our church did. The inmates were hungry for the true word. Not just once a year. 4 or more times a month. Some other churches do the one a year thing. The prison we were involved in has closed.
If the poster is the presentor, I’d love to have a conversation with you as a GenZ LCMS member
Sure thing. Shoot me your contact info in a message with any preferences for when I reach out. I actually have a bit of time free this afternoon.
hello Pastor! I am a convert to Lutheran theology. This topic is deeply important to me. I have a youtube channel just to share aspects of Lutheranism and to show a different face of it. Is it possible to do a skype interview on this topic? I didnt see any contact info for you on here, so I posted in the comments.
Thanks for reaching out! I would love to do an interview. Would you be open to have it be about a book I just released this week on this topic and some other things?
Here’s the book: www.amazon.com/dp/B0CKX14C9H/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?crid=2RN3Y0EKTTH5U&keywords=ends+of+the+Lcms&qid=1697138298&sprefix=ends+of+the+lcms%2Caps%2C152&sr=8-1
I have been attending a LCMS congregation and was seriously thinking about becoming a member but after this video it really confirms what I initially thought. The Lutheran Church is dying in North America.
Jay, thank you for taking the time to comment on this. Christianity in America is dying, and the LCMS is following the overall rate. I would urge you to please join your LCMS church because the church needs more evangelistic leaders such as yourself. Do not be discouraged. Jesus is still Lord over the church, and God is in the business of raising the dead.
It's dying if you are not willing to be on Team Lutheran. So join and help stop the trend. Or is it more important to be on Team Winning? If so, the fastest growing "church" I believe, is Mormanism. Irony intended. If doctrine is important after that ironic statement of mine, then you should do what is right and not, which is expedient.
I'll say this. I noticed a massive amount of kids leave after confirmation at the church I went to. Confirmation would have been in about 2004. My church used a program called faith incubators which was absolute garbage and a lot of the kids were disengaged and it went down hill from there.
😢I would like to find out who is RevJoe. We have been apart of the LCMS for 20 years (we are in our 70's now) and prior to that attended a number of Evangelicals churches. Covenant, Baptists, 4-Square. My husband was raised Catholic and the sacraments always meant a great deal to him. He has taught God’s word for year never realizing he was teaching Lutheran theology in those Evangelicals churches. About the time Promise Keepers came on the scene things changed and we no longer could stomach their theology. So for 20 years we were apart of the LCMS. However we have recently left it because all we ever got from it was a ha🖐 in the😢! My husband was so frustrated because the LCMS seems inconsistent as to who and what is allowed to be taught. Certification being ordained and having the correct appoval is only given to some. And why the LCMS uses Lifelight bible studies is beyond belief. It's as if Pastors think Laypeople are below some intellectual level and can't teach God’s word unless they have the correct letters after their name. They don't train their people and when the do, like "Everyone A Witness " program, it's like you have to go back to school and get certified. Where's the train of Laypeople so they can learn to share the love of God with their neighbours? I would suggest you all look up www.qplace.com/ and let your people loose in the freedom God gives us to share the Gospel with all those who don't know Him and are hurting or have been hurt by the Church because they are sinners like all of us.
I'm the guy in the video! Thanks for your comment, and I'm sorry to hear about your bad experience in the LCMS. I love your passion for people knowing Jesus.
I've been a lifelong LCMS member having held most every position in multiple congregations. We have a cultural problem. People today don't want the formality of a traditional liturgical church. It can be intimidating. So much of our practice reinforces our doctrine. This is good but it isn't appealing to the average non Lutheran and many younger Lutherans. Our hymns are great reinforcing doctrine as well but much of the music is just plain painful. We have a need for clergy but the cost of the education and time to complete isn't minimal. We have congregations that can't afford a full time pastor. Tough finding someone to make it a second career given the training required while expecting them to work for substandard salaries. I've had members of my congregation tell me they don't want to grow. I've had a pastor tell me it isn't his job to grow the church. I suppose that's true in a theologically specific sense. Absent growth we are going to lose many congregations in the next 20 years.
You would be surprised at the number of young people who want something, different, authentic, mystical. I think we might be able to get a few more than you realize by being liturgical. Proper hymn selection, because some really aren't easy. An organist who can actually play (not slow funeral dirges). a "praise" band that actually leads worship instead of performing a concert can actually work. While many may try to go the big box contemporary route, no one may be left to ancient traditions. We might be able to corner a market.
@@jasonkiefer1894 I visited a fast growing non dom today. I do a mid week men's bible study with them. Felt Church lite. But it was packed. I really do prefer the historic liturgy. I completely concur with you regarding the music. I've visited more than a few LCMS churches with a nice old lady who gives piano lessons muddling thru the music dragging a quarter beat. Lastly, the formality of the congregation needs to change. People want to dress down and sit with their coffee. No reason we can keep the good and update the adiafora.
@@jasonkiefer1894 young person here. In my circles (traditional Christian under 30s), hymns are preferred over "worship songs" 10/1
There are only three ways to grow a church: 1) effective evangelization 2) a high birth rate 3) immigration. For many years the Lutheran Church could rely on 2 and/or 3 to grow. Since the LCMS has abandoned its former position regarding birth control, and no longer has a high birth rate, and since it no longer is receiving a lot of Lutheran immigrants from other countries, there is only that of effective evangelization. One thing that could be done is to scrap the modernistic style of liturgical worship and go back to worship that has beautiful language and beautiful music, both of which were scrapped in the 1960s. This may well attract people, who will hear something totally different from what they hear in secular culture (The idea that young people are only attracted to modernistic music and language is totally false). The fruits are now in: the decision of the denominational elites to scrap the King James Version of the bible, and go for one ephemeral modern version after another, has been a disaster. With the rejection of the KJV, the hold that the Bible once held on society has loosened dramatically. Other things that could be done is to train young people in apologetic work before they are confirmed and before they leave high school. There are many fine scholars who defend the truthfulness of Scripture in history, creation, and archeology, but young people never even hear of them, and then go off to their local atheistic indoctrination center to get "educated".
When you say "evangelism", do you mean ringing doorbells or just taking such opportunities as may present themselves. And when you say "shared their faith" do you mean giving a theology lecture or just making the fact of my faith known even if the listener shows no interest in its content?
Or did you teach your kids, have daily devotions and keep attending yourself and wake them up every Sunday morning only to have them drop out as soon as possible? Like since when does sharing ones faith, teaching the law and gospel translate into increased numerical growth? It might. I think Luther put it like this with the parable of the sower and the seed, if you have 10% stay in the faith, that's about it. Not a direct quote. What Luther Says. Page?
Time 7:15. Psalm 51:5?
PS. I tried twice to make a comment and it said error.
Sorry if I ended up putting this message on twice!
Hey friend! I don’t think either of them posted but I pray you’re having a great day.
The most important thing for a church is the doctrine. If you don’t have the right doctrines, which means that you are not teaching the True Gospel, people will leave.
You make the assertion that evangelism has completely fallen off and you support this with a statistic that for every 15 adults that become new members, we lose about 20. That's a non-sequitur. Doing more evangelism to make more new members of the church will do no good if we're not retaining the members we have.
Good point!
If you have 4 children. They have 4 children. They have 4 children. You’d be responsible for twice the size of your present church if you didn’t send them around the country and instilled the faith.
Why does becoming a Pastor need to be a Master's degree. Why can't we train a Pastor more like a trade school? This country seems to think that wasting time learning a bunch of useless stuff makes you more "well rounded". I think it wastes a lot of time and money. If we started a seminary that ran like a trade school, we could produce higher quality candidates in a shorter amount of time. Plus as we find needs that congregations would have, we could shift the education to address them easily. It could also have an apprentice program too. (Yes Vicarage is that program). We also could have DCE, worship leaders, and teachers taking part. Plus they could always go back for training that either they didn't have or that they may want to brush up on. It just seems to me, more and more the "college" system in America is less and less effective. Thanks for the video
True!
Interesting thoughts and excellent "out of the box" thinking. We need that today as much as Luther did in his day. Let the possible be the potential and may the decent ideas flow like honey in Canaan!!
Boomer credentialism is a huge thing in the LCMS. It's a bureaucracy.
Our illustrious president axed a similar program. And don’t offer scholarships to the SMP program. They still think a 4 year masters is the only real way. But an educated clergy is a must.
That map from 2010 is not accurate by the way
I pray it will be over by 2041. Pastors and leaders have been complacent with regard to leadership. They wear their title like armor for appearance but dont take their responsibility seriously. It is entitlement without responsibility.
I agree with almost everything LCMS stands for, but abortion as other cultural and moral issues should be kept within the church itself. I am against abortion, but we should not support judicial or legislative measures to make it compulsory. I don’t need a Supreme Court to tell it is illegal not to adore God. It’s a matter of conscience, and there are cases in which abortion is reasonable.
The cultural issues loom VERY large. How many people in the “mission field” discussed in the video have a gay brother, or an interracial marriage, or work in cannabis, or have a ton of tattoos, or pink hair, or any other cultural signifier that would render them utterly anathema in any of the (many) highly change-averse LCMS congregations?
OMG yearold! You don't get it? The Lord God, Jesus Christ, Creator of the Universe, is subject to the "passions." He "hates" interracial marriage (although he made an exception in the case of Clarence Thomas), gays, pot smokers, and most of all, those who make graven images (aka tattoos) on their bods. Is it any wonder that, when presented with this "God" most folks say, "Thanks, but 'no'" .
Hopefully
The best thing you can do for the LCMS, Rev. Joe, is to dress like a clergyman.
😛
Update your Catechism to include Patristics and Canonics like the OCA did. Adopt the Deuterocanonical Books into the Scriptures. Get rid of Masoretic Text Translations of the Old Testament and go back to the Original FULL Septuagint. Wonders happen when you clean up your Theology.
NO.
Was LCMS started by Jesus? Of course it was started by a man. Did Jesus make a mistake?
The LCMS was started by God, the Holy Ghost, to return Lutheranism to pure doctrine. It is not the only saving church.
Martin Luther was a fascinating guy! So is Donald Trump. The element of lust and sex cannot be underestimated in the analysis.
We should not be starting new churches, but rather bringing the passion of church planting into the current churches. The model of ‘start a bunch of new churches’ is a failed model. That model, as clearly shown in this presentation, did not and does not strengthen the denomination. Human nature loves to start new things, it doesn’t like to stay the course when the newness wears off. So the solution offered is to start the new and shiny..... so that we can end up in the same place again as where we are right now. No. The solution is stay the course and put the passion into current churches and current congregations, and bringing the lost in to what was started new and shiny by those who came before us.
I pray that old churches have that vitality and passion for reaching the lost. Thanks for sharing your ideas!
Jesus said to Peter, "You are Rock and on this rock I will build my Church." (Matthew 16: 18) Jesus said "build," as in to create a structure. Jesus built His structure on specifically chosen human beings Peter and the apostles.
Second, Jesus gave Peter and the apostles the power and authority to carry out His work. "Whatever you bind on earth will be bound in heaven."(Matthew 16:19; 18:18) "Receive the Holy Spirit, whose sins you forgive, they are forgiven, whose sins you retain, they are retained."(John 20:23)
Third, Jesus gave Peter and the apostles commands as to what that work should be. At the last supper, He commanded, "Do this in memory of Me." (Luke 22:19) He commanded them to "Make disciples of all nations" (Matthew 28:19), and to "Go into the whole world and proclaim the Gospel to every creature." (Mark 16:15)
The early Church was structured in a hierarchical manner as it is today. We see in Acts, chapter 15 how the apostles and the elders came together under the leadership of St. Peter to decide the question of what was required of Gentiles. We also see how St. Peter was regarded as the head of the Church when St. Paul, "Went up to Jerusalem to confer with Kephas [Peter] and remained with him fifteen days." (Galatians 1:18) There is no Scriptural evidence of independent local churches.
The Catholic Church is the only church that can claim to have been founded by Christ personally. Every other church traces its lineage back to a mere human person such as Martin Luther or John Wesley. The Catholic Church can trace its lineage back to Jesus Christ who appointed St. Peter as the first pope. This line of popes has continued unbroken for almost 2,000 years.
God rules, instructs and sanctifies His people through His Church. Under her teaching office, the Catholic Church preserves the Word of God. She is the custodian, keeper, dispenser and interpreter of teachings of Christ. And she accomplishes this under the protection of the Holy Spirit.