The scariest climate science paper I've ever read?
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- Опубликовано: 18 сен 2022
- Learn more about how the natural world works with Brilliant: www.brilliant.org/simonclark
This month a paper came out that honestly chilled me. It was about tipping points in climate - a well-known concept that the climate can change abruptly if certain conditions are met in certain elements of the climate system, such as excess melting of the Greenland ice sheet. That wasn't new. What was new was the threshold these tipping elements could flip - according to this research, we could be triggering some tipping elements already - and if we warm the planet by just 1.5°C then we are likely to do so.
The climate is still within our control. But if we keep emitting as we are, that isn't always going to be the case.
Every. Tenth. Of. A. Degree. Counts.
References:
1. journals.ametsoc.org/view/jou...
2. www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073...
3. sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/stu...
4. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...
5. • The rotten core of the...
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Some stock footage courtesy of Getty.
Edited by Luke Negus.
Video about tipping points in climate and a new paper about climate tipping points, talking about the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation, permafrost thaw, collapse of ice sheets, and extinction of corals. This new paper from McKay et al showed that there isn't a neat relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and global warming - there can be step changes thanks to internal variability, rapidly pushing the Earth into different climates. In this video I talk about climate tipping points, how some are already possible today, and will become likely at just 1.5C of warming.
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I’m continually impressed by the number of papers et al contributed to.
The most prolific general scientist of all time. No one can publish like et al.
Humble folk too, didn't even want to have their name capitalized.
et al and Ibid. are carrying half of academia on their shoulders I stg
@@SimonClark I applaud you for recognizing this principle for climate science, but why don't we realize such mechanisms in economics? We got at least one system right at the core of our societies that can't saturate/shrink without causing disruptions/recessions.. it always has to grow for the system to function.
Let me know if you want to know more (and no, it's not as simple as you might think - otherwise humanity would have solved it already)
If i ever start putting out any serious amount of papers, i'm changing my name.
@@T-Ingvarsson You dare to impersonate the greatest mind of the millenium!?
Anyone who's had an aquarium in their home has experience with tipping points. If you don't manage the excess nitrates that build up in this closed system through regular water changes, the aquarium WILL transition into a new system (dominated by unsightly algae and sick fish), often rapidly. And it can be very hard to reverse.
Excellent analogy!
@@apostolosvranas4499not really.
Overfertillization of a contained micro environment is very different from over fertilisation of parts of the macro environment .
@@andrewtrip8617 aah, cmon, be generous, it's meant as an illustration :) although of course, the consequences are vastly more dire
One of the co-authors of the article here. Great to see coverage of our paper! Nice summary and thank you for getting this important information out to a broader audience!
Thanks for your research how do you feel that the time to really tackle climate change was 35 years ago and scientists were just not being heard. I became a believer in 1988 when James Hanson spoke to congress and gave a serious warning
@@nickkacures2304 so we’re fuxked 😂? Great love other humans all I wanted was to live off the land in a cabin with a family
The work you are doing is important. I am a retired biologist who has been observing environmental/climate issues for a long time. Anyone worried about population? I am. I wonder how much of this important climate information is actually being read or watched by a broader audience. I suspect that the deniers are "tuned out" and won't see this video and time is running out. Thanks again for your contribution to this paper.
@@TheToscanaMan so we’re fucked ?
How can we do something about this?
It seems like ultimately every human needs to be aware of and understand the reality we face.. And each individual needs to make decisions that impact them personally and profoundly.. Things like reducing vehicle usage to practically if not nothing. Or no longer pouring money down the drains of industries that contribute negatively to climate change... Like, imagine what the planet could do if instead of funneling money into sports, instead we funneled it into infrastructure to slow down and mitigate climate change..
It's not enough to wait for governments to decide to take action. At this point, only our entire global civilization moving in lock step can even have a CHANCE at preventing this planet from becoming literally uninhabitable...
As impossible as it feels, the alternative is to keep driving off the cliff.
So.. What would that look like? A global coalition? Education resources through RUclips? Materials like lists of companies that contribute to climate change so we can as a global community put our foot down and say enough is enough and boycott them into changing their ways or becoming obsolete? Creating an infrastructure that efficiently moves products to people like Amazon, people will always need toilet paper, but as a non-profit focused solely on using efficiency to reinvest into itself and not shareholders.. With the driving north star of engineering the greatest human infrastructure ever achieved - for the future of our continued existence on this planet...
There is nothing like this in existence. I believe that without a global community making literally lifechanging impact there is no chance to prevent the full collapse of our ecosystem.. It seems like everyone is standing around saying "we need to do something!" but nobody's DOING anything!! WHO is going to step up and be literally humanity's quite literal savior?
I revisited my home after being away for 15 years. The seasons have changed. More extreme and often rain, hotter longer summers, bigger more dramatic cold fronts. Id imagine it’s not as obvious if you are in the same place constantly.
doing anything to help fix the cause?
Astute observation humans have a tendency to normalise their environment
This information has been published for about a decade (maybe more), but the optimistic/conservative climate organizations and press have always used unrealistic predictions that don't take into account much of the climate system (jetstream disruption, ocean warming & acidification, these tipping points, etc.).
This is why we're always hearing that things are "far worse than we imagined". The mainstream perspective has been slowly shifting toward what "extremists" have been saying for many years.
If one stops looking to the mainstream climate science information as the sole arbiter of truth in this realm, the nearness of these tipping points would be old news.
Actually IPCC predictions (based on models known for outrageous confirmation bias, hello Climategate, an overt attempt to remove the Medieval Warm from the data) have been overblown to just plain wrong for thirty years now. If the first IPCC report had been correct we'd all be underwater by now. Forest fires are definitely attributable to humans: of course they are natural when lightning strikes the dead grass of spring or the dry grass of fall, but our forest management practices (including housing development spread far into the forest) lead to hotter and deeper fires since we jump on them immediately instead of allowing them to clean out the understory as they naturally would. Early explorers of North America tended to be conflicted: one year would find miles of windswept ash and dust created by herds of bison and swarms of Rocky Mountain locust along with wildfires, a veritable desert. The next explorer would find grass and wildflowers, deer hiding in copses of willow, birch and poplar. To the east flocks of passenger pigeons were recorded blotting out the sun for two or three days as they passed: they made enormous clearings in the temperate hardwood forest, the weight of the flock breaking off many branches and leaving a chemical desert behind with tonnes of guano flattening every leaf.
this is also what I realized: "far worse than we imagined" meant, the estimates have been far to optimistic/conservative.
If you live long enough you also get to live through plenty of “Chicken Little” climate tipping point panics that somehow never eventuate but are always right around the next corner. In truth we are always 8 minutes away from total grid collapse from another Carrington Event or larger solar flare or CME strike. There’s also the ever present errant gamma ray burst that might snuff out life as we know it at any time. Implementing the radical carbon energy reduction that the most strident environmentalists wants society to undertake is also an absolutely certain way to kill 100s of millions if not billions within one generation, so it’s mostly like a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation anyway.
@@autohmae - If you tell people the truth its called "Fear Mongering" and hence destroys the economy. " People can't handle the truth" so Hollywood says.
Climate Scientists and the Media were saying "Climate change will be a slow event - taking 100-150 years so to complete" - so we were told a few years back. That means in most people minds "it's not my problem - it's the next generation's problem." The mentality is driven on greed for money and selfishness.
your tipping point is that you are ignoring the fact that co2 has insignificant effect on climate change because there are insignificant amounts of co2 in our atmosphere. ancient experiments have proved that increasing atmospheric co2 increases the rate of photosynthesis in plants, removing more co2 from the air.
the amount of heat absorbed by the atmosphere depends on the mass of the atmosphere, the specific heat capacity of the atmosphere and the temperature change of the atmosphere. co2 is only 0.04% of the atmosphere and o2 21% whike n2 mmakes up a stagering 78%. this means there is about 2500 times as much n2 and o2 in the air than co2 and the specific heat capacity of co2 is only 40 times greater than that of n2 and o2. e = mct.
you may carry out an experiment to prove that co2 is innocent by placing 11 identical glass chambers filled with air with co2 composition of 0.00%, 0.01%,0.02%, 0.03%,0.04%, 0.05%,0.06%, 0.07%,0.08%, 0.09%,0.10%, equidistant from a heat source and monitor the temperature every minute, over a 24 hour period, using thermocouples datalogged to a personal computer. you will find out that there is no corelation between co2% and temperatures of the chambers.
I've reached a point where I'm so self aware of the reality of situations that I'm just constantly numb because I know no matter how much people do or say: the people in control and in power positions won't do anything that comes anywhere close enough to help this situation. They do a PR project here & there to make it look like they are getting into addressing the situation but they aren't. Everything is so slow, so cumbersome, so tedious with bureaucracy/geopolitical legislation nonsense that it basically makes the simplest most straight forward stuff unattainable to achieve. *I swear a group of normal average people who are passionate and knowledgeable about things would be a million times better and efficient at controlling and running this situation than anything we currently have going on in the world. *I'm honestly a very optimistic and dreamy person that loves to think about all these amazing things we COULD do. I just get frustrated with how modern day society is honestly. That's all.
It’s the rich and powerful who are our biggest obstacle at this point. If you want to be truly horrified look up “Survival of the Richest.” I’ll take communism over neoliberal capitalism as our desperate hope for a better world.
NASA has come out stating that Earth's magnetic field is weaker than it was 150 years ago. This means Earth is being heated up by the Sun, not humans. More radiation particles from the sun is entering Earth's atmosphere heating it up. Your carbon lie doesn't work anymore. This process is natural and no matter how hard you try you will never be able to avoid it. Do real science!
One large volcano erupting can do more harm to the environment than all of human history put together!
If you haven't already, harness that disgust and frustration to try to make some change. As Nova Cult said, there are economic alternatives to today's neoliberal capitalism. Read some political theory if you'd like- it helps to understand why things are the way that they are and what can be done about them.
Join a local political org (I recommend the DSA or PSL if you're in the US), organize and educate yourself and fellow people, and raise hell against the powers that be. At the end of all this climate apocalypse- whether we stop it or not- you'll be comforted in knowing you tried everything you could and fought till you couldn't any longer.
You're not alone. Every day it seems more and more like deliberate planetary sabotage. I genuinely don't think it could be handled worse.
We shouldn't have to listen to opposing views on this matter. Anyone in power that doesn't consider this a TOP priority should be removed immediately from power and imprisoned for crimes against the planet / humanity.
It’s infuriating that with science so clear on this issue yet governments and corporations aren’t doing nearly enough
Climate issues have always concerned me, and I personally struggle with how little I can do of impact to solve this problem. Reducing my emissions is something I try to do, but is rather insignificant if most of the world carries on with a "growth" mentality for personal and economic matters. I'm enrolling in an aeronautics engineering course, which perhaps isn't a path where I'll be doing something that relevant to this issue. The question is, what should on aim for, in order to be sure not to be just another person that fundamentally won't do anything to solve this huge problem in hands?
Talk to others about it, makes plans to vote and really pressure leaders, wether they be local representatives, state officials, etc. We work best as a collective, and that's when real bargaining can be done.
The three big parts of the equation to solve the climate crisis are: individual choices, government choices and corporate choices. But all these interact. What an individual does is never insignificant, beacause thousands or even millions of people have decided to make the same choice you have. And, by becoming an aeronautics engineer, you will be helping the corporate choices and helping budding technologies to grow withing, reducing the impact on our atmosphere. You are awesome!
Ditch the guilt and get on with your life!
@@cyclometre in your dream world where the actions of individuals occur in a vaccuum/bubble where nothing ever affects anything else, then sure. what sucks for your libertarian paradise is that it simply isn't real
Try to lead by example. That is, say, recycle more, plant some trees, use public means of transport or a bicycle wherever possible and make these known to others.
We need more green practice in our everyday life!
My research tells me that it's even worse than this great video suggests. It's not five to midnight any more - it's 3 o'clock in the bloody morning! This doesn't mean we should not act, or we should give up - just that we should all be honest about where we are, so that we can prioritise our actions, rather than pretending this is all still decades away. Thank you.
One large volcano erupting can do more damage than all of human history. This isn't science. This is a carbon lie. Carbon dioxide is plant food. NASA came out long ago stating Earth's magnetic field is weaker than it was 150 years ago by 20%. If that's the case wouldn't you think more radiation particles from the sun that enters Earth's atmosphere is heating it up. Come on man wake the phuck up!
Actually right know is 100 seconds to midnight, the worst in history
Worst case scenario: climate prevention is now off the table. Our only option for survival will be climate _adaptation._
Low iq
@@Synodalian We still would need to stop making the problem worse even if we are past the point of no return.
We actually don't know when we cross a tipping point. We cross and at that moment, nothing looks different - the beginning of an exponential curve is just a doubling over a particular time frame - you have no idea how long that doubling will continue. It's when you look back on it that you can see it's exponential, and then it may very well be too late!
The experts in 1989 said the tipping point was in the year 2000. In 2001 the experts said it would be in 2018.
There is no tipping point. There is no climate crisis. This is a scare tactic to trick you into spending money you can't afford.
Well, I-
It's not necessarily an exponential change, stuff is more complicated than "number go up faster". A tipping point *can* be a specific system growing out of balance in an exponentially measureable manner, while another one can be more like a set of steps:
A river floods a hundred times in the same year due to ice/snow melting in mountains. → Many bushes die off and some can't grow back from due to heat waves.→ The fungi (that keep soil nutrient rich) lose a source of food and lower in density. →Repeat from step one until all soil fertilizing fungi are gone. → Bushes can no longer grow along the river. → Floods last longer. → Trees start suffocating. → Repeat process but with trees and tree-based fungi instead of bushes.
End result: a river desertifies a whole area.
Tipping point: Ice melting in mountains.
Oh, and every arrow signified years of time between events.
_*Disclaimer: I just made this up in the spot (and haven't heard of an unpolluted river desertifying anything, so it's probably nonsense)._
Anyways, in the case I showed, the species dying off would happen at relatively random intervals, and technically with each extinct species a tipping point is crossed that'd make the system more and more feeble, but not exactly in an exponential manner.
Edit: the exponential allegory is still quite good and easy to understand tho, I'm just salty at the implicit statement of all tipping points being like that.
As a Canadian, I'm inclined to believe the permafrost tipping point is already triggered. Our summers have NEVER been soo hot, and our winters have shifted in time period back about a month or so, plus the severity of the storms has been REALLY high for a few years now. I truly believe we've already hit the point of no return here.
@@makelgrax Yup, I'm aware that there are many sorts of tipping points and an exponential 'death spiral' is only one. Your example is not one I've considered before!
@@compostjohn - What's not addressed is the tipping point - is the poles tipping at the 40 degree mark. We are presently at 38 degrees and travelling quite quickly each month. We are due to hit the 40 degree latitude point in a few months time - around March 2023. At around this 40 degree latitude point we get a pole-shift of the planet. That tipping point is easily provable on the kitchen table with a compass and 2 bar magnets. ( See Maverick Star - RUclips Channel )
However - I expect far worse than a pole-shift - rather a core-cease.
If this actually happens we loose our atmosphere within around 2 hours or so - due to the core ceasing and the earth not spinning, plus we veer out of orbit into the sun due to lack of rotation. The loss of air will kill all surface life within the day.
This internal thermal runaway of the earth's core - bought about by underground atomic testing cracking the mantel under the north polar cap, and the pumping out of earth's coolant - oil - seems to be the key primary triggers; according to messages I am getting from the Supernatural. I also get these messages from ETs and other benevolent Spirit Beings as well - that our days are literally numbered.
They also can't save the planet and man has not been listening to their messages, when they were visiting earth to warn us about nuclear weapons back in the 1950's.
While people are more concerned about chasing the almighty dollar - nothing will happen to reverse this - even if they are aware of such. It's already too late - the damage has been done.
it is so sad, that basically noting will be done, because neither politicians nor ceo's care even a little bit, even though they are effected as well
You know it's serious when Simon doesn't try to end it on an optimistic note. We need action now and I hope more people can be aware of this news.
He is on the optimistic end of peer reviewed climate fact reporting too .
It's not "we need more action". At this point everyone should ask themselves "how much am I willing to risk to stop this?" and then do as much as possible.
I'd rather enjoy life, while I can. Once we destroyed our host, like a virus, we'll die with it. While a few might survive and hopefully learn to coexist with this planet.
Aware...action now what can we do? Nothing short of threat of violence is gonna work. We gotta seize the polluters assets but everyone is too comfortable or docile or like me isolated to unite.
The question is are people willing to go to war over this? Literally to war against climate aggressors. This means against the U.S., against China, against their fossil fuel industry corporate sponsors. This may even mean being labeled as terrorists.
When the scientists start talking like the activists, you know we're fucked.
I've felt for some time that climate scientists have underestimated, for one reason or another, the effect positive feedback loops will, and are, having.
The climate is so complicated and interconnected that it's just so hard to accurately predict.
Someone once said, "All models are wrong, but some are useful." I think that might be true when it comes to climate models. They can be used to discern broad trends, which are plenty concerning enough in my opinion.
I am not so optimistic as you are Simon. The things that we do not know and the tipping points that may have already been triggered but there is a delay on they response can be out there. What do you say about the deep sea waters that have been sucking all the extra emissions? What happens when they spit those out in a few hundred years? At this point we should just aim to control as much as possible the damage we have done, and deal with the worst that is about to come.
could you please educate me on what the seas have been sucking up?
@@benas_st carbon!
Make sure your affairs are in order. Call out to Jesus to be your Savior. You must know that His gift totally paid our way, and He will leave no one behind who is part of His flock. (John 10)
He will force no one, but will accept all who call on Him to be saved. Right now would not be too early to call on Him. He is listening.
@@annjames1837 save you from what?
A fairytale?
This is reality and "Jesus" has been coming to save us for millennia, supposedly.....
How did that work out in the holocaust?
How about the many Christian believers who gave their lives in Vietnam? Or Iraq?
Or Afghanistan?
Were they saved?
@@benas_st The ocean functions as our largest carbon sink, as well as absorbing some 90% of the excess heat we've put in the climate system. That heat is then dispersed into the depths of the ocean through circulation. Once (or if) we stop emissions, we will still have to deal with heat being gradually released by the ocean into the atmosphere as the former tries to reach equilibrium again.
With you on this one. This paper and the accompanying commentary ought to be mainstream news (without portraying doomsday scenario as the media like to do), yet it barely scratched the headlines. As you say, every 0.01 of a degree matters and we need everyone to take action now.
But, but, what about the trillions in unrealized reserves on the balance sheets of the oil companies?
Won’t we consider the right of the 1% to convert those irreversibly to paper tokens and CO2 in the atmosphere? /s
@@appearance8932 Yes, and as an American politician once reminded us, God put those fossil fuels there for us, and it would be an insult to Him if we didn't use them. /s
That weird moment when everyone in the upper 1% is buying up beach front property at a very high premium despite the fact that majority of the current coastlines are going to be 5 ft underwater by 2030. Really makes you think
"Every 0.01 deg matters"? Are you sure?
Its too late my dude, im not saying you should panic, but why dont you start researching whats the safest country for climate resistance and buy real state there?
Just one question.
The Greenland ice sheet, is the SMB this year above or below 30 year average?
The worst is that the parasite in charge care for nothing but money and accumulating it at all costs regardless of what the consequences are
money the sick love child of authority that realises everything they dare to dream excluding nature entirely consequently mass extinction :( then there's all the wars they prosecute with the taxes of the cash cows - this will end v.badly :)
I’ve studied climate change for 4 years at Stanford now. What we face will be the greatest adversity our species has had to overcome.
We needed to act 50 years ago, maybe even 10 or 20. The disaster is coming full force and all we can do is ensure that the Earth maintains similar levels of biodiversity as it was before humans existed, or can easily bounce back to a pre-human era.
Xavier, sadly there are 1000 morons with a right to vote for every one of your kind.
Ah you mean restrictig abortion? Yeah americans, some african and middle east nations are doing their best to win that battle
Do you mean the natural process of warming. Because earth has been here for millions of years. Climate change is a natural process. One large volcano erupting can do more damage than all of human history. The Sun warming the planet because more radiation particles from the sun is entering Earth's atmosphere heating it up. Magnetic field is 20% weaker than it was 150 years ago. NASA came out with that long ago. Do real science. Did they forget to teach you carbon dioxide is plant food?!
I've studied it for 8 years and learned we are fine and the statistical raw data confirms it.
I would suggest that many ecological tipping points had already been passed, but we will not know about this as it takes years to collect data, then upto a couple of years to get it peer reviewed and published.
I mean, we pretty much already know that coral reefs are going away, never to return. That was one of the tipping points mentioned.
I would suggest that the tipping points have been passed (though the effects take some years to manifest), many governments are well aware of the situation we're in, have accepted it, and all of their actions to date point to an expectation that billions are going to die and they at best hope to simply preserve some form of power for themselves through the collapse of civilisation.
@@TruthTortoise81 According to the Australian Institute of Marine Science, the Great Barrier Reef has done extremely well in the last year, it has grown by 25-40% and is in a better state then measured since 1985. Perhaps you missed something.....
@TruthTurtle that's a lie. Coral reef off some coast are growing still doing fine. Look it up!
@@seemev2.0phuckbootube78 "Over half of coral reef cover across the world has been lost since 1950" source - natural history museum.
I'm worried about the methane that's being released. That methane wire is very close now.
I've known about the feedback effects for a while, but it's so terryfying that I felt depressed and numb. Recently I've been learning about some energy crops like paulovnia or Miscanthus giganteus and have a feeling that this is something that the little me can do. Especially paulovnia has stolen my heart and imo this tree should be much more mainstream and what's more they should plant it in Indian cities this year (but not doing it 😱). Their temperatures are so close to max wet bulb temperature that it makes me want to go there and shake every single one of them and tell them to immediately start growing trees. Unfortunately I can't do much more than spreading the idea.
The most important tiping point is methane release which is self-reinforcing and that tipping point has been passed
Shared it around in some Communties I'm a part of - Immediate Reaction: 'Meh who cares' / 'Can't do anything about it anyways' etc
Defeatism is way to strong
Even having been through all the detail and taken it all seriously, and looked at what an individual can do, or a group of individuals -- still it is not enough. Either we need those at the top to take decisive action, or else we have to hope that some significant collective movement emerges to force them to. It may even be worse than defeatism, though, i.e. going out with a whimper. Our civilisations may go out in the madness of war or worse. Often an individual may choose madness as preferable to facing the truth, and I guess this may also apply at the group or country level too. Denial is a form of madness, and who knows where that may lead.
So really as an individual I feel that this is out of my hands, and the only option is to take the future one thing at a time, whilst making decisions with the future climate collapse in mind (i.e. don't buy a house on a flood plain or on the coast, or in places where the climate is likely to change significantly, or where the population cannot support itself, etc). At the end of the day, we are animals, and a species may face population collapse and still survive to see another day. It is only at the individual level that we experience the tragedy of it. So with some humility this is manageable (i.e. I may not survive, but there is still a future for someone, and let's hope they learn from it).
@@uazuazu I myself also believe that i can't fix this issue. But I maybe can attribute 0.00001% to the solution. So I'll go into academia and try :)
It's not that bad in my opinion.
@@uazuazu yeah, I'm not planning on retirement either. Chances are between the constant stress of high temperatures and a family history of heart disease I'll be dead way before then. Besides, even if I do make it to seventy chances are society will have collapsed to the point where if you're not working you're dying.
yeah well ... to combat this, we would need a totalitarian global government which forcefully halts all greenhouse emissions and applies cooling measures for the planet. Not about to happen anytime soon.
As scientists are discovering things are at the worse end of expectations, many people are still repeating oil industry misinformation that it won't be that bad or that "CO2 is plant food etc".
Well, oil has meant big money both directly and through what all that power makes possible.
However this surge in capitalist activity has also exacerbated the presumptions of humanity. Jobs have become more specialized, less general, and a whole class of jobs has migrated to countries with cheap labor because after all, all this bounteous energy makes it possible to import the results en masse. It's less and less plausible to tell everybody "Oh, just get a full time job."
If we had told our forebears 100 years ago that we'd get most of our household goods from China and jobs supporting their local manufacture would no longer be viable, they'd have said "What?!?" Then they'd say "We sure envy whoever gets rich off of this."
@@SeekingTheLoveThatGodMeans7648 Money made maybe a driver but it is irrelevant to the truth of climate change. The people emitting the most CO2 per person are those who are consuming the most goods and energy not those manufacturing them, where gov't are promoting commerce by low taxation on fossil fuels, and encouraging cheap dirty energy..
CO2 is Plant Food.
@@SeekingTheLoveThatGodMeans7648 oil companies are the number one investor in rewnewables
That's because it is plant food duh....one large volcano erupting can do more harm than all of human history. When this happens and it will say goodbye to your carbon lies.
"The point of no return". Been hearing that since the 90's when I was a kid. Even with all the Kyoto, Paris,... agreements global emissions are still rising thanks to China, India and africa.
Personally, I think that we were teetering on the edge of a tipping point back in the 1970s. The warnings seemed to be there, certainly in Europe. Even if we haven’t actually gone over the edge, we haven’t crawled our way back up the slope, even a millimetre.
Massive ethics reform in government-especially in the US, but everywhere else too-is desperately needed. Time for the people currently running the world to get their heads on straight or get out of the way
lmfao. Sorry did you say "ethics in government - especially in the US" ?? That's never going to happen sadly. We're going to have to move them out of the way 100%. The rich corporate elites who pillage the land for resources do not care if the world falls apart, they'll build bunkers and hire people to be their food producers and continue living in their isolated worlds. We are GOING to have to get more rowdy, I guarantee it.
The governments are idiotic because the people are idiotic. Governments (in the west) are representatives, not saints or supermen. If the quality of government is to improve the quality of the people must improve.
Sri Lanka. You want that?
EthicsWhat are ethics? -some religious mumbo jumbo?
The earth is the proverbial "Titanic" right NOW. These naysayers, experts, denialists and matrixed consumers will all understand very soon when they realize food doesn't grow at McDonalds.
The scariest paper you have read ... yet!
The perpetrators are still alive and in positions of power to cause further damage while good bullets are being wasted fighting senseless wars.
i wouldnt use bullets on them, i would torture them mercilessly instead.
Whenever I listen to one of these talks I mentally listen for how many times they said "could", "might", "may be", "believe", "if", "possible", ect.....
I take comfort in the fact that in my 45 years of life , there hasn’t been on environmental disaster theory that has come true.
The simple fact that we are no longer having a winter tells me that we have past tipping points the fact that the graciers are melting tells me that we have past the tipping points
I'm so glad to be a teenager in this time. I get to have to deal with all this when I'm an adult. If the golf stream moves, my whole country will be colder. It's not very warm, but if it gets colder, it's going to be Yukon cold.
You adults got to live as, well, adults in a world five years ago in which there was no pandemic, no war, no energy crisis, no imminent threat of global warming.
I've been growing up in this mess and I have the weight of the world on my shoulders because guess who are expected to deal with this in 10-20 years?
To be fair, i am 30 and the same was true when I was young. This has been going on for a while now, things have been getting worse since I was a kid, we've all been living with this anxiety for a long time. It's definitely only getting worse.
It's not just now, in the past there has been wars, terrorist attacks, mass killings, nuclear disasters, pandemics (not on the same level), and much more. Each generation has their own disasters to deal with.
Admittedly each proceeding generation will have more and more to deal with when it comes to climate change. Personally i am going to buy some cheap land and build a home / climate shelter. I know it might make no difference but at least I feel like I'm doing something to protect my loved ones.
I'm 48 and still am convinced that the Russians are gonna drop nukes on our heads. It's been going on a long time. Just hope I'm dead before the worst of it. Good luck 🤞
@@blindmown protest. Join your local environmental group. Write to your political representative. There are literally so many more things you can do right now that will be more constructive than building a climate shelter. You can't build a perfect climate shelter because, everywhere on earth will be impacted by climate change. How can you predict that where you build your shelter will be safe? There is no way of decisively telling which ecosystems will change and by how much, and exactly how many meters of sea level rise will reach which locations first, and how many spots of acid rain will occur where.
Concentrate your efforts on helping to steer the world away from disaster. Don't just fucking give in, lol
Say you'd been born in the early 20th century rather than in the early 21st. Those born in western Europe faced WW1 followed by the Spanish Flu (no vaccines against that) then the light relief of the roaring 20's before economic depression set in with mass unemployment and starvation. This was followed by another world war and the bombing of industrial areas where many civilians lived. Food was rationed into the 1950s. Well, you may say, at least they had a post war boom after that. True enough but the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the cold war was yet another source of anxiety for many. Prior to the clean air acts buildings were black with ever increasing air pollution. Many major rivers died with no fish in them at all. Then, to top it all, you get cancer caused by smoking having been told by the tobacco industry it was healthy and glamorous.
Life has always been tough one way or another. It's also unfair and full of people (many in positions of power) who make irrational, selfish choices without (apparently) the slightest consideration of the consequences for others especially the poor, powerless and young.
On the other hand. Life is full of opportunity and potential (especially for the young who have time to recover from their inevitable mistakes/misfortunes). You can get lucky and benefit from amazing strokes of good fortune that you didn't earn and may not even deserve. There are many good people about (some with the power to make a real difference) who are reasonable, rational, intelligent and well educated who can change the world for the better. They often go out of their way and even dedicate their lives to helping the poor, powerless and young.
I hope you become one of the good people who change what they can for the better. Neither you nor I can change the course of history so it's best not to think we can - which is what we do when we pretend we can take on global problems and become all too anxious about them. Good luck.
oh please they said New York would be underwater by 1999.
"A meaningful life is still possible, even under the most difficult of circumstances." - Viktor Frankl.
Things like a changing climate concern me. I'm human and would rather live by other people's happiness than misery. But I think in this situation it's important to put things back in perspective and bring our focus back to our own two hands and what we can do with them
what can i do
@@leftward_hoe do as may drugs as you can afford and have unprotected sex with prostitutes
I love how you explain atmospheric physics concepts in such an easy manner...... I am waiting for the day you makes a video on *Rossby waves* .... One of my favorite atmospheric physics concepts... I would love a simon video on it.
I prefer a simpler 'seesaw' theme to describe a tipping point; it's not enough to STOP ... we need to step back behind the line beyond which the system began to tip, as it was already imbalanced when it started shifting. This also opens the door to pointing to the new 'stable point', where the seesaw now rests on the wrong side.
"A very long and heavy train going downhill racing towards a cliff edge" is a better analogy than the walking towards the cliff edge analogy. But otherwise a great job Simon!
I like the Thelma and Louise analogy best. Through the guardrail over the cliff with the radio boasting thinking everything is fine.
I tend to agree. "walking" suggest we could really just simply turn around at any moment if ONLY we just wanted to. But as far as I can tell, we simply do not have the technology readily available to maintain current levels of civilisation (and development in the 2nd and 3rd world which needs increasing amounts of energy) without fossil fuels. And we have to deal with the reality that the world is sadly not yet a Star Trek-like place where the whole world is united in interests and actions.
@@snakedogman Yeah, more like 8 billion extremely habituated naked apes, consisting of in-groups and out-groups.
@@nicholasdemetriades9154 Thelma and Louise didn't think 'everything is fine', quite the opposite. That's why they decideded to go over the cliff, and to do it fully conscious and with style. While it made sense for them to do so in the movie, it's not something I would like to see humanity doing in real life.
'without breaks or any way to turn off the engine...'
There is no room for addressing climate concerns under capitalism.
Thanks for the great video and sobering info..wish more people would pay attention to what is going on all around us..Alot of people I know prefer not to hear what is happening but instead stick their head in the sand..ostrich style..They just want to go on with their lives like everything is ok..Hoping someday people will wake up and see what's going on..before it's too late!!
A lot of people, otherwise rational individuals, live only for today. They bypass easily the fact that our current lifestyle is messing the lives of our grandchildren and totally destroying the lives of their own grandchildren!
I respect the hell out of you, as one scientist to another, for making this video the way that you did. It's hard to make a somber video where there's not much of a happy debate to be had, and it's hard to present on a scientific topic that's also very emotional for you. It's much easier to talk about science as something we do and something that's interesting/exciting, but this is exactly the kind of commentary we need right now, especially from someone as uniquely qualified as you at interpreting the real-time dialogue and research about it.
Love your videos, glad I got to hear this from you and not somewhere else, keep it up.
P.S: we're trying to get fusion working over here so that we can get off the whole fossil fuel drug, but don't count on it commercially for the next few decades..... wish my work could be more useful in the short term.
Solar and wind work well enough to do the trick for now!
100 degree days in Canada and Siberia on fire, releasing yet more and ever more potent greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, seems like a self-sustaining feedback loop to me.
Yeah I felt that exact thing this summer when, going to the grocery store I realized as a child I *never* used to deal with this level of heat consistently. it would OCCASIONALLY break 30's, 33 was tops. Now seeing a 40 occasionally. Our winters have shifted too. They used to come late October here, and by the end of March it was nearly always melted. Now the snow often doesn't fall until right before Christmas, and it stays until mid April. I'M ONLY 34!
@@Fenthule snow no longer lasts here for mor than a day, it used to arrive end of november and last until mid feb.
Now we simply do not have snow at all and when it does arrive it instantly melts because there is so much heat still in the ground from the summer that are now about 10C above average with no wind nor rainfall.
yet people are going ''its so nice with the warm sun'', twitter generation with attention spans of seconds and memory for half an hour is the main cause nothing happens to fix the problem.
Siberia on fire really looks like we have crossed that tipping point.
Not yet, that is coming in late 2024 - mid 2025, when the deep ocean, primordial methane deposits degas.
As long as we keep the methane count below 2500ppb (1850 I hopecurrently, but not looking forward to that.
@@Fenthule
Wow! We better raise those taxes!
Thank you for not ending the video with a "but it's really all ok" happy chapter.
It's also nice to see these consequences of our behaviour finally becoming accepted and talked about more widely.
Funny to see that the old witch trials are still part of our being.
People need to realize that when 100% of grant money is only given to find AGW; that over 97% of research people will agree with AGW. Scientists are not stupid.
Exactly. My other pet peeve is the "earth will be ok". Destroying or damaging every single ecosystem on the planet is not ok.
@@timeenoughforart I hate it when people don't finish that quote "The earth will be fine - but we will be f*cked!" (George Carlin I think).
And as you say, it's not just us, it's all living things in jeopardy.
Let’s ignore the fact that the doomsayers have been wrong for decades, over and over
@@elingrome5853 except they really haven’t been have they? If you’re really being honest about it. We’ve just been papering over the cracks and outright denying the realities of how badly we are damaging the biosphere. But it’s getting harder and harder to ignore and hide.
Brilliant analogy. Thank you for putting this out here and illustrating the very terrifying problem we have.
Great video. Steffen al al “Trajectories of the Earth” is a previous paper and, accordingly to my perception, a must cite on the topic also. Keep up your good work. Thanks
I was waiting for your video on this paper. As a teacher on climate change, even I am scared of showing this to my students.
Are you really just a salesman for klaus schwab and wind farms etc
As a student, please just show them. Not hammering home how scary this is to future climate scientists is how we get scientists that run cover for the status quo and endorse moderate solutions. The whole field needs to be freaking out, because their collective attitudes have policy implications, and that means you have an obligation to freak your students out as much as possible
Is better to know the truth and do something
@@azd685 noted. Will do!
Earth's magnetic field is 20% weaker than it was 150 years ago. This allows more radiation particles from the sun to enter Earth's atmosphere heating it up. Do real research and stop being a liberal puppet and think for yourself. It's simple. Oh and one large volcano erupting can do more damage than all of human history! Research that 🤡
I study at the southern university of Denmark to become an engineer in energy systems. This video motivates me to keep going, so we can make some changes.
Try and convince China and India
There's only one change which will truly reduce global emissions: a massive population crash. And what realistic mechanisms exist to have this happen in all serenity? I've been an engineer all my life.. there are no technical solutions to the climate crisis. None. Study the companies and projects claiming to have solutions, and you will realise they are all peddling hopium.
This motivates me to absolutely exe cute every single person that believes in this garbage once the inevitable collapse happens 🙏
@@nathanfurnival8724 They're both trying. both of them have SEVERELY stepped up their game in the last decade or so, but the biggest issues there is lack of technology and EXTREME population numbers. India especially has virtually no public transit, so the amount of vehicles on the road is INSANE. They also have no way to deal with certain things like the waste from farming so they just burn fields so they can replant, instead of processing it into fertilizer or using it in another industry like Mycelium growth for packaging or shipping things. China is building A LOT of nuclear reactors and they're actually leaders in LFTR technology. Their issue is the sheer amount of power they use and how quickly they're industrializing - every time they build a better power plant it's energy is immediately used up and they need another. They need something like MIT's company Quaise's proposed geothermal drilling tech that they're working on right now in order to actually supply enough energy to their people that they can start turning all their coal plants off. But if you look at the amount of pollution PER PERSON, the US is *far* above anyone else on the planet.
What do you think of Denmark's energy islands?
Even geo-engineering won’t help. That is indeed terrifying
No mention of solar science, no mention of magnetic pole shift… that’s like talking about a bucket but not even talking about the hand holding it.
Thank you for making this. There's been a tendency of late from certain pop science communicators to downplay the likely impacts of climate change to ease the fears of their Western audience, which in my opinion is more dangerous than outright climate change denial. I'm glad that you're keeping it real.
And yet here's another problem: where does the average educated Joe go to follow the asserted math. If it has to be juggled around in computers, that excludes almost everyone outside that echo chamber except perhaps die hard physics engine game developers (and it would be so great if those outside the field decided to pursue this from scratch, as it were). If someone says (as I heard said) that melting Greenland's ice will raise the ocean by a couple of feet, can someone please show the math on a gross level. Could it be that a game of telephone has gone on and this means if the earth warms enough to melt Greenland's ice, then all the water melt all over the world will add up to this much. Greenland isn't that big, and any ice that has depressed the surface (as in Antarctica) would result in lakes, not a higher sea level, if it even melts for several hundred years as it sits there in a thick layer like ice caves that last through the summer do.
I guess the idea might be that moving glaciers will simply scoop out the icy contents of these hollows as they go... still this is a funny take on the expression "to move at a glacial pace." And past glaciers have already "sanded down" much landscape as they went. The earth is flatter than it used to be, to make a coy wink at a certain school of thought.
The internet was envisioned in a primitive form as a diligent cross referencing system. Instead it's empirically proven to be a lazy rumor mill. The more wacky the things it purports, the less it will be believed. It's the boy who cried wolf problem.
There are climate change severity and speed questioners.
@@SeekingTheLoveThatGodMeans7648 The educated joe reads the papers this video is referencing for the math, the lazy joe watches the video then applies their own preconceived bias to rationalise whatever they want. There will never be a video giving you an easy "x melt = y water level" because as you say there are many externalities which could affect how much water reaches the ocean. Even your example of melt water forming lakes not oceans isn't accurate since that water will eventually evaporate and rain down somewhere else.
I have become quite concerned and rather annoyed about the phenomenon you describe... in a nutshell. My cynical side causes me to wonder which fossil fuel think tank may have dropped a nice sack of cash on them...
@@Rheinhard That's not really the issue at hand. The ones pushing this narrative accept climate change, want to transition away from fossil fuel energy, and even call out fossil fuel capitalists, but because it's way too late to make that transition and prevent climate disaster without challenging the global economic order, and that's what they're protecting. Capital caused the climate crisis so any actual solution would need to address capital, which is quite troubling if you're, FOR INSTANCE, a science RUclips channel whose entire business got started thanks to generous grants from monopoly capitalists like Bill Gates. They're not gonna address the elephant in the room because the elephant paid for their studio.
It's so frustrating that awareness of what's happening is so difficult and depressing while so much of the populace (especially in the first world) is blissfully unaware and unable to even fathom that this silly little fantasy world humans have wrapped around themselves is not reality.
I just try to take stock and admire this beautiful unlikely nature around us and the sheer madness of being a sentient self aware intelligence birthed on this ancient planet.
netflix is more important apparently
| Know that the life of this world is but amusement and diversion and adornment and boasting to one another and competition in increase of wealth and children - like the example of a rain whose [resulting] plant growth pleases the tillers; then it dries and you see it turned yellow; then it becomes [scattered] debris. [...] And what is the worldly life except the enjoyment of delusion |
the depressing part is no matter how many times we have been fooled, we always fall for the latest prank the global elite pull on us
You sound like a Spiritual Soul. I just posted some books at the beginning. But for you, I suggest, " Journey Of Souls" by Dr. Michael Newton. Good luck!
Yes. And to protect the planet should have been drilled into our brains from the moment we could say mama or papa!
Thank you, Simon. From my non-scientist point of view, it seems like we have passed a tipping point. We're coming off a drought here and there's a cyclone there, Heat dome turns to fires turns to floods. That is our world now.
Remember, when 100% of grant money is only given to find AGW; that over 97% of research people will agree with AGW. Scientists are not stupid.
Best book about Climate Change is by Dr. Mark Lynas. It is: "6 Degrees; Our Final Warning". It explains precisely what has, is, and will happen as a result of Climate.
Sooo is anyone else willing to admit we've almost certainly screwed the pooch on this one, or just me? Do we honestly think there's any chance the world takes collective rational action to avoid destroying ourselves? The evidence, for decades, has been utterly to the contrary.
I'm with you. I'm 99,9.. % sure there is no way there will be a collective way to start caring about this.
solar geoengineering is our last hope. lets hope we actually do it.
things aren't either/or. Even if tipping points are crossed, how bad things get can still vary widely. We did screw the pooch, but it can be screwed much further or not as much further, and that's what should be the focus
This is just climate denial with a twist. We have to assume that we have a chance because if we don't and there is we doom ourselves.
@@Gibbons3457 Lol how is this denial? The problem is very real. And I get your logic from a systemic perspective, but from an individual perspective, learning to let go and accept the reality facing me has done wonders for my own mental health. It was terrible at first, but eventually, it gets better. The anxiety is gone now, in place of melancholic acceptance, like a terminal cancer patient who has learned to accept the reality of their imminent death. It just is what it is. Love the people you have and spend as much time with them as you can. It's probably all there is left to do.
'Glad' to get confirmation by someone with a lot more knowledge than I have on this topic, that this was a very very scary paper indeed. For a moment I thought I was overreacting.
Search for news on Siberian permafrost methane release. That tipping point is looking very tippy.
You are not overreacting. We started the train but we won't be here when the train stops in 10-20 million years (nor will many other flora or fauna). Of course, we may not make it until 2100 even. There will be new species in 20 million years like after the dinosaurs.
The point of the paper is to be scary. Real scientists aren't scared because they know our knowledge of climate is about at the same level as our knowledge of medicine in 1850.
Hi Christope. Check out my comments I just posted. I hope they help!.
your tipping point is that you are ignoring the fact that co2 has insignificant effect on climate change because there are insignificant amounts of co2 in our atmosphere. ancient experiments have proved that increasing atmospheric co2 increases the rate of photosynthesis in plants, removing more co2 from the air.
the amount of heat absorbed by the atmosphere depends on the mass of the atmosphere, the specific heat capacity of the atmosphere and the temperature change of the atmosphere. co2 is only 0.04% of the atmosphere and o2 21% whike n2 mmakes up a stagering 78%. this means there is about 2500 times as much n2 and o2 in the air than co2 and the specific heat capacity of co2 is only 40 times greater than that of n2 and o2. e = mct.
you may carry out an experiment to prove that co2 is innocent by placing 11 identical glass chambers filled with air with co2 composition of 0.00%, 0.01%,0.02%, 0.03%,0.04%, 0.05%,0.06%, 0.07%,0.08%, 0.09%,0.10%, equidistant from a heat source and monitor the temperature every minute, over a 24 hour period, using thermocouples datalogged to a personal computer. you will find out that there is no corelation between co2% and temperatures of the chambers.
Absolutely clear redux of the issues sourrounding tipping points. I recently discovered your videos and love them!
As a (paleo) climate scientist, I find the thresolds scary. Our planet was very different (also, no humans) when we passed them in past warm(er) periods.
Do this go to the children's section at the local library and read these two books: Chicken Little and The Boy Who Cried Wolf read them over and over until you understand. Then live life to it's fullest!
Wow! Just wow!
The idea that 1.5C is still apocalyptic, plus the fact that existing fossil fuel infrastructure if allowed to live out its useful life puts us above 1.5C, plus the fact that more fossil fuel projects have been proposed which together would put us above 2C, is why I can't take seriously the people saying the inflation reduction act gave them "hope". Absent a literal revolution in energy, in politics, in international cooperation, the world will be inhospitable for 1000-10000 years. I hope after being shocked by this paper your rhetoric on policies going forward becomes less credulously hopeful and more radical
nobody with a brain said the dystopian novel like inflation reduction act was good... what planet are you living on?
youre unironically on the side of a side who chose a sen il vegetable, do nothing in his whole career, corrup clown as their best possilbe candidate, who is now destroying th ecoutnry at a pace never before seen, as their best choice?
Inhospitable? What scientific paper claims that on the global scale?
@@abj136 the paper discussed in this video
@@abj136 nobody reasonable has said anything like it. these people are a literal cult
@@azd685 you rown propagandised institution the ipcc said the effects will result in a 1900% increase in gdb by the year of 2100 rather than a 2000% if there were no damage from the sunmonster
youre a cult
In conclusion; Hello, we’re all gonna die, thank you for watching - and in the meanwhile please subscribe at Brilliant
And now only 8 months later: Antarctic alarm bells: Observations reveal deep ocean currents are slowing earlier than predicted
by Kathy Gunn, Matthew England and Steve Rintoul, The Conversation
Forest fires, wildfires, or bushfires, depending on where you're from, used to be infrequent and localised, and would only ever occur at the peak of a particularly hot and dry summer. We've just entered our third consecutive La Nina event here in Australia, so the last two years have been relatively saturated, but in the years leading up to 2020 we'd been seeing high and extreme fire danger conditions, and experiencing bushfires, months earlier than ever before. 2020 was perhaps a prelude of what's to come and the entire East coast was either burning or in the path of an uncontrolled fire at some point over the summer months. The US no longer sends their fire-fighting equipment to help fight our fires because there's no time of the year now when they can definitively rule out a fire of their own, Mediterranean countries seem to have fairly serious fires every year now, but more concerning is the vast swathes of Siberia that are being incinerated every year. Methane is bubbling up to the surface as frozen clathrates that have lain dormant under the arctic for tens- or hundreds- of thousands of years are released into the atmosphere. No one "tipping element" has gone over its precipice, bur I suspect we've already set in motion a runaway climate, and although the train is just starting to roll out of the station, the engineer has already loaded all of the coal into the boiler and welded the hatch shut. Some nations have made substantial progress toward de-carbonising their economies, but the way that human societies have evolved, with wealth and power tending to concentrate in the hands of the most ruthless and sociopathic individuals, means that the unadulterated greed of a small handful of the wealthiest people on the planet will continue to stymie meaningful action by governments, and human civilisation as we know it is doomed.
Well said! You hit the nail on the head. Those few you mention also have an escape hatch.
Where did the term "La Nina" come from?
Gee, maybe they had hot spells hundreds of years ago too? ;-)
Science fiction!
Greed? I think its more so that Indians and Chinese want to cook their food using electricity rather than dung and wood.
Greed? I think its more so that Indians and Chinese want to cook their food using electricity rather than dung and wood.
I know everyone hates the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" each for their own reasons, but I think it is a poignant reminder of the worst case scenario, multiplied by a factor of 1000.
'Tipping point' is the whole _point_ of the movie, no pun intended.
I've watched it multiple times and really enjoy it. Usually rematch it during this time of year when winter is on the doorstep. Has a nice atmospheric feeling (no pun intended again).
The fact that it has Mexico taking in all those refugees from the U.S. is a nice ironic touch.
Wrong movie. "Knowing" is the analogy. It's happening now.
@@somewhathere3435 "Knowing" has nothing to do with this. What are you talking about.
It looks like all these stressors are driving us more toward "solutions" that look like the Handmaid's Tale and Orwell's 1984. So called "leaders" , like so many Big Brother wannabes, doubling down on intensified methods of exploitation and profiteering off humanity's vulnerabilities. The irresistible impulse, of those in power, to put greed above all other motives is what ultimately drives the collapse of civilization.
@@bluceree7312 Hollywood increased the timeframes of events to ridiculous levels, but that movie has some exceptionally valid outlooks on what our future may hold. It'll be fascinating to see who's right, and we'll likely have front row seats within our lifetimes.
You know what guys... I think we are doomed, every time I try to talk about the climate change to someone I'm shocked by how little they are informed... People still say things like "climate change is a natural phenomena" or "how do you know it's because of humans" and the boomers...omg the boomers are the worst...
For all the bull-headedness, the thing that gets me about the "climate change is natural" is that, even if it were, that wouldn't stop the coming effects from it. We would still reach all these tipping points and have to deal with the consequences. So for someone to think it's natural and not be scared shitless and not want to do *something* to weather the storm is crazy.
This has "felt" like something coming and obvious all along. Every moment there's less ice, there's less absorption, the moment an area of permafrost melts, there's a little more methane. Tipping point means that it's runaway, but it's definitely (logically) already contributing - but the oil companies are making record profits, so.... you know - that's nice.
The focus on "renewable" prevent people from making other, much needed, changes
What’s insane is, how little of a change, causes these intricate events and leads to a changed world that none of us can imagine. When an inconvenient truth was released years ago, I knew Al was right, despite the fact that the WHOLE MOVIE SHOWED AL instead of the thousand scientists that were saying “HEY GUYS THIS ISN”T GOOD”. Which I believe, made the general public cry “Ok ManBearPig, that’s enough of that”. Here we are, in the period years later, which? Was clearly defined in his insanely ego centic video as “the pointi of no return”. Irony, irony.
the ONLY possible way we might stand a chance would be to make it financially worthwhile for people to SHARE the jobs we can agree we NEED people to do and work much less...no more an insane infinite growth system on a finite planet...no more simply working and doing anything FOR money but sharing the work we need. No more a planet full of people desperately wanting to hold on to their jobs even if their work is pointless, useless, meaningless or harming the planet. Everyone having a useful job and enjoying working much less.
Our planets population is going up exponentially. Higher population means higher carbon footprint and eventually, it won’t be sustainable. How do you limit the birthrate because that is going to be a huge problem in the future.
@@yoyo2598 the evidence suggests that birthrates are falling (although apparently capitalists are now trying to encourage people to have more babies it's good for their 'economy' :( ) and the fact is you are right nothing can save us if there is no stopping population growth. Nothing can be sustainable if it's infinitely growing.
ITS NOT AFINITE PLANET, stop saying that cult line... ever heard of the moon landing? theres asteroids juust next to us holding more minerals and resources than weve mined in our history
@@yoyo2598 The children aren't a problem. A baby takes far less resources than someone who grows old and becomes essentially useless to society for 20+ years. Also having an obese lifestyle takes tons of resources unnecessarily. Also the industrialized way of farming makes us waste one third of most crops. Mining for computers/phones, tablets for thinks as arbitrary as Netflix is also a massive waste of resources.
Nobody needed a kitchen. They sold us a kitchen. Nobody needed a toilet. They sold us a toilet. Nobody needed a "living room", our living room was nature and they convinced us to trade a tree for a couch. You could easily have one kitchen where many people eat from, but noooo, let's put them in little cubicles and tower them over one another for profit.
If you think the birthrate is at fault and not the love for a fake world, then I don't know what to tell you, because curbing birthrates literally means that whoever grows old will suffer beyond belief, since there will be no young generation to take care of them. We're talking metric tons of old people that can't help each other or work. This is how a civilization collapses. Nobody can maintain the city, buildings start collapsing, malfunction en masse in city infrastructure... imagine the mental health impact.
It always amazes me when people think curbing birthrate is the issue, when the societies with the least children caused all this mess with perpetual, unrelenting greed and selfishness in conjunction with an incredible amount of ungratefulness and thanklessness for having the privilege to flush your toilet with clean drinkable water...
Ever read Planet Iarga? Very interesting.
Most original representation of tipping point I ve seen
I lost count on could be, would be, possible, if ... Where in the handbook can I find the optimal temperature of this planet? Asking for a friend.
Here in America, the government is so sidetracked by damage being done by the supreme court and on top of that we have a president that is allowing more drilling and extraction. This country really needs to get its act together and it isn't, which has me very worried. This type of video really helps to wake the public up and put pressure on the government, so the more the merrier.
Climate action is not something governments do it's something governments fail to prevent.
Biden is not allowing more drilling!!! What are you smoking? He killed the oil industry. You all think getting off fossil fuels is possible then you don't understand how many items have petroleum in them. Practicing everything we use needs petroleum. Also, EV is not clean energy. Batteries explode, get hot and start fires, made up of some of the most toxic chemicals that harm the environment more than burning fossil fuels. Not to mention a new study came out debunking climate catastrophes. Your utopia is unrealistic.
@@seemev2.0phuckbootube78 ruclips.net/video/U_Vk8MxBFBA/видео.html
Anyway the oil industry is killing itself by becoming obsolete. We are now at a point where no amount of taxpayer handouts can save it. Renewables are 9 times cheaper than fossil fuels with storage costs included. You know your phone is being powered by a LI battery charged by renewable energy. If you don't like that mabey stop using it or any device for that matter.
you can say whatever you want, but the "Inflation Reduction Act" bill is the best that has come out of the US in a very long time.
Just watch the "The Biggest Climate Bill of Your Life - But What does it DO!?" video by vlogbrothers
However, your people have a fuel crisis and they are very stubborn and care greatly for their living condition and see themselves in opposition to each other.
Such a shame that these kinds of important publications are behind paywalls and expensive ones too.
New analogy: You need to submit your dissertation if you want to avoid UTTER CATASTROPHE. But you procrastinate and you have other important things in your life that need tending too. So you leave it for the last minute. But the longer you leave it, the more susceptible you are to delays. Then you get COVID. Then your computer breaks. Now you're 100% starting to lose grades. You know it and you're in full damage control, writing like a maniac trying to submit SOMETHING that will pass. You now depend completely on luck. Everything has to go right or you WILL FAIL. And you know this because you pray every night.
In your bucket example, when the water resches the top of the bucket, it will.begin to spill over, and the amount of water in the bucket will not increase.
But when it spills over it touches the electric wires so the water becomes electrified.
Can you do a video on some of the tipping points? I would appreciate you taking a deeper dive on the subject.
Also terrifying to look at your crops after a couple too warm nights
Warm nights compared to the day will halt food crops
Happened locally last year
Despite having plenty of 118f days in Phx in the 90's, it cooled off some nights. Now it's still 100f at 3am, nearly every night for months. Plants & trees here once considered native & hardy against the heat, are dying.
Crops are doing excellent here on my 90 acres. Booming crops of wheat and soybean. Not every year is going to be great.
@Krazie Ivan not what I hear. From what I seen you have had a big monsoon season bringing in much need rain , showing AZ greener than ever.
@@seemev2.0phuckbootube78 ...I'm not clear on your point, as Phx gets monsoon season every year, & rainfall totals don't lower the avg yearly temps.
Even if it did help moderate temps, half the duration of our 100f+ days each year are outside monsoon season, which doesn't guarantee rain anyway. Typically it's violent haboob winds, high humidity, & a miserable dewpoint... with small short patches of rain over very limited area if we're lucky. Cloud cover actually helps to trap heat overnight... Due to this, some of our wettest 24hr periods are also our hottest.
2yrs ago it broke 100f on Nov 6th... not only are avg temps rising, but they're starting earlier & lasting longer.
When I was a kid, we'd have frequent overnight freeze warnings in "winter" & I'd mess with frozen puddles. Now I have a ton of plants, so I pay even closer attention... hardly ever a freeze warning.
Don't take my word for it, as all the collected data free to see online clearly shows the same.
Hello dear Friend. I tried to access the papers in the description but the 3rd link is not accessible. Please help me get that paper. Great work by the way. Thank You.
Bro said we're the wheel lol, we're just the throttle.
Politicians think that there is wriggle room in science just like engineers use in equiptment.
The 2nd law of thermodynamics is clear that a complex system needs to keep dissipating energy to prevent it falling apart. Our global civilisation has no special exemption from this any more than we do as individuals.
Our primary energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels and we've made minimal progress towards getting that down. In the last decade the fossil fuel share dropped from 86% to 82%.
It’s a hard problem to tackle because while yes we are converting to renewable energy, energy demand is constantly rising due to population growth so it is a trade off.
The sub surfacing 2 months ago in the Arctic sowed ice 10 to 15 feet thick with temperatures to match. I have noticed that videos like this never mention what satellites say about sea level rise which is 3.0 mm/yr not 28 feet. There is a peer-reviewed paper that says Earth's concentration of CO2 was up to 400X what it is today. You know the temperature cannot exceed the point proteins denature.
Biggest uncertainty are ocean currents
These 9 tipping points are acessed in the documentary "breaking boundaries" on netflix. Definetely a must watch!
Edit: According to the documentary, the tipping point for the greenland icesheet has been passed. Since the water on the surface of the ice sheet is partly covered in water making it darker contributing to selfwarming. The also gave a ridiculous number: 10000 m³ of ice are melting every second in greenland.
Yesterday and today, your channel really came up on my radar. I really started looking into physics and predictions of climate change about 2 weeks ago. Your channel is very useful for someone trying step into climate change science. I noticed you had a video from 4 years ago with a Brilliant sponsorship, and here you are still working with them. I hear and see brilliant all over the place (at least from my youtube feed). I'll get around to checking them out more intensely. I did play a little bit with them, but maybe their learning materials are really helpful. Thank you for everything.
The car company I work for has a plan to become carbon neutral by 2050. Quite possibly the biggest cop out I've ever heard.
It's scary to know that my son will grow up in an unstable climate.
Important societal collapse tipping points have ALREADY occurred by ~1C
California forests, Arctic sea ice demise, meters of sea level, pandemic reoccurrence,
Until 8:24, this wasn't about geoengineering. Then, suddenly, the conclusion is that geoengineering is impossible.
We've been pretty sure since about the 1980s that we were going to put enough CO2 into the atmosphere to cause lots of positive-feedback effects. The stuff about melting sea ice, methane and CO2 released from thawing permafrost, and disruption of thermohaline circulation is not at all new. Arctic sea ice that persists through the summer (when it could reflect sunlight) is mostly gone already. The idea that we used to be in control because of the mere possibility that we might, possibly, someday take our foot off the accelerator? That never made sense. We have always, since the 1980s, known that we had already put too much CO2 into the atmosphere, and that we needed to figure out ways of taking some back out, or ways of offsetting the effects, or some of each, in addition to not making it harder for ourselves by putting more in. We just haven't been honest with ourselves about it.
We don't know how hard it will be to avoid the avoidable effects of climate change, although we have a general idea that it will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to a few trillion. We don't know how severe the unavoidable effects will be, although we're pretty sure it will be a lot of trillions of dollars worth of economic damage. But as for the standard story -- an all-or-nothing threshold between disaster and ok, that will be reached in a few decades, at a time that keeps changing, depending on a threshold that keeps changing, so that at every moment right now is the absolute last moment to avoid it right now by taking bold action right now, and did I mention we have to act right now, with policies that only ever affect the other side's priorities and never ours -- we know quite clearly, and we've always known on some level, that the standard story is false.
Just reducing emissions relative to their business-as-usual trajectory was never an honest answer. No problem was ever solved by making it worse faster than before, but a little more slowly than expected. We need large "net negative emissions".
A huge factor is the earths population. It is growing exponentially and each new person has a rather large carbon footprint. It’s a very weird subject to talk about but I don’t think our population growth is very sustainable. One good thing though is that once a country grows a strong middle class and is developed, population growth rates decline.
Mostly Harmless :-)
God I hope that was an intentional Douglas Adams reference 🙂
Amazing video as always
"Mostly harmless" spotted the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy reference! Nice.
I would like to read this paper. Where can I find it?
Thanks for the video
Well, do we really need to go over even 1,5C?
Multiple mountain glaciers says : No. And keep melting at extremely rapid rates.
Greenland ice sheet is most likely going to melt also.
Arctic permafrost is also near tipping. Thawing with carbon emissions can be seen clearly these days.
So is Amazon rainforest. Specially during droughts these forests has become a carbon source instead of thought carbon sink.
These limits are calculated with different methods and they may keep local variabilities that are not calculated. If local temperatures rises 4 times global average instead on 2 times, that means 1C in that area means 4C change instead of 2C change. And that may trigger these tipping elements way earlier that predicted. Global average does not work well with tipping points. You have to count local variabilities too.
There is serious problems with tipping elements. We don't know what is their triggering point until it has gone. And after that we have almost no chance to climb back to that previous state.
Actually if you look at the glaciers, there is more ice in the north pole now then there was 10 years ago.
Just like your last video, these types of things sadly barely make it over the threshold where news outlets run a single sentence on them. We are like the proverbial ostrich, our heads firmly lodged in the sand and thinking things will just pass us by.
That's because this is false science
Like your ostrich analogy! May I use it?
@@nicholasdemetriades9154 Please feel free. :)
A lot of people honestly do know
But they've become too jaded or hopeless
They don't see any progress or any way to stop it or help lessen the impact
They just see reminders that "We're fucked", and so they just keep walking on by
Thats the problem
People aren't seeing anything that shows we can fix things, so even if they believe, they are too hopeless or jaded to think we can do anything
Thats the issue
The Media WILL NEVER cover anything about people trying to help out the climate or enviroment
They are only going to show more and more articles about how bad it is and how awful things are
And it's backfiring, people are just getting hopeless, they don't think theres anything they can do to help or even make a small (But helpful) impact
What the ostrich analogy bypasses silently (we have to think to reach the conclusion) is that the ostrich is often devored with its head still in the sand ...
Remember the US Vice President in 'The Day After Tomorrow' saying that the economy is as fragile as the environment? That's one ostrich with his head deeper than those of the others: if you have a radically different environment, the economy (especially, agriculture, animal breeding and fishing/mariculture) has no chance to adapt!
Perhaps the avoidance of hitting a serious tipping point would be a good enough reason to explore stratospheric aerosol injection. It would suck if we lost the biosphere because humans were too stressed out about moral hazard.
One tipping point has passed already, which is lack of foods due to droughts and high heats, and inflation is its sign. Prices of foods may be fluctuating, but steadily go up.
and Oil & Gas & Coal drought and highs in pricing but steady trend MORE than inflation .... UPWARD.....a finite resource.
Great video, although (with all respect) the bucket and wires analogy is a bit far-fetched. Usually an analogy is something that you actually know from real life, this one is arguably more abstract than the actual subject matter.
I thought it was good. Helped to really visualise the imminency of a rising temperature.
The amount of electricity going into your fridge is reducing because a mouse keeps gnawing through the wire. Eventually the stores of live bottled beer start fermenting again and blow up. This sets off the nitroglycerine you were also keeping in the fridge for obvious reasons and blows the doors off. Your milk then spoils.
The barrels of gasoline under your kitchen sink are struck by the fridge door going mach-3. Fuel geysers from the ruptured barrels, up into a huge cloud of flammable vapour that fills your house. The mouse, scared by the detonation of nitroglycerine, fearfully chews another wire and is electrocuted. It's fur bursts into flames and ignites the gasoline dispersed throughout your house in an immense explosion that blows the walls out and sends your roof into the upper troposphere, trailed by the burning debris that was once your cherished possessions. The roof rockets into the underside of a passenger jet descending for landing.
The last time CO2 was higher than 400ppm was in the Pliocene 3-5m years ago. Sea levels were about 15m higher. It's proving impossible for many parts of the world to 'adapt' to a 1.2 deg rise, so I'm glad I won't be around to see the effects of 2 degrees, let alone more than that. All future generations will be paying the price for the cumulative emissions of a relatively small proportion of the global population over a few decades.
we cooked our whole species so the boomers could go vroom vroom and retire into their golden parachute investment funds while the entire planet is collapsing around their pharaoh inspired mausoleums. too bad they can't take their money with them
No everyone alive in the coming years will pay for it and we’re already at 2.2 if using a 1750 baseline
Decades ago studies conducted at the Rainfall-Erosion Facility at Colorado State University observed that complex dynamic equilibrium systems, such as eroding landscapes, will attain a stable equilibrium, resisting input changes until a threshold value is reached, at which point the system will shift quickly to a new equilibrium state. It's a general theory of complex dynamic equilibrium systems, such as climate and tipping points.
In other words, the TLDR version is: We're plucked.
Figures. Guess it's time to start making pemmican plus a variant that will keep my cat healthy.
Well that was terrifying. Though I guess that was the point. Really good video. And the video looks so much better with this setup. Much softer, less red and less blown out highlights!
Fear mongering to spread a false narrative is a very common thing today.
I've only just found your channel. Bravo 👌it's great. Now, because I haven't watched anything else yet, I'm hoping you're addressed the ice melt {fresh water} that is diluting the oceans. Won't this have an effect on ocean life including the plant life? Plus, the massive native and commercial bee populations. Anyway, thanks Simon, we need more channels like yours, keep up the great work.
According to the 2021 IPCC report melting of ice sheets and sea level rise are now irreversible for centuries to millennia.
So sad that the paper which is the topic of this video is not open access :/