My 2023 Tornado Season Forecast: How Did We Do?
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- Опубликовано: 5 июн 2024
- In this video, we'll discuss how our 2023 tornado season forecast (link below) performed this spring. We'll review some of the factors that modulate tornado frequency and distribution in the United States each spring before diving into how this tornado season (March-June) progressed and how it stacked up to our forecast.
My 2023 Tornado Season Forecast (original video): • My 2023 Tornado Season...
Chapters
0:00 Introduction
2:06 Review of modulating factors
20:10 Review of our original forecast
22:08 Discussion of the 2023 tornado season
23:31 March 2023 tornado activity vs. our forecast
26:08 April 2023 tornado activity vs. our forecast
28:45 May 2023 tornado activity vs. our forecast
31:11 June 2023 tornado activity vs. our forecast
34:17 Progression of the background pattern through the season
42:41 Assessment of our forecast
46:09 Wrap-up 
Наука
To be fair, if the March 31 outbreak happened 1 day later then it would’ve made April “verify”
Very true
This year’s severe weather was nothing short of insane from start to finish, felt like almost every single event this year could have a case study written about it meanwhile last year felt bland through and through (apart from a select few days)
To be fair though, had there been the internet and predicting models we have now, back in earlier days? I reckon it would have been a similar story.
i share my name with yours and got so caught off guard by that intro
Your forecasting skills are definitely good, and I'm looking forward to seeing your calls for how the autumn season will play out. I feel like we've seen some surprising or high-profile events in the Ohio Valley especially during recent autumns, and I'm curious to see if it will play out similarly this year.
Thank you! I’m interested to see how the fall plays out given this transition to a potentially strong El Niño that should continue.
@@ConvectiveChronicles ..It ain't over, yet...We'll start looking for more twisters beginning in November. 🌪 🌪
It was the most significant year of tornadoes for me that I’ve ever had. Went to Sullivan IN after the March 31st outbreak where they were hit by the EF3 that started near Robinson IL. It was the first time I’ve ever seen severe tornado damage. I still have a door frame with hinges on it in my closet after I found it shoved a foot into the ground.
Dang, that's crazy!
Trey! Love how you bring the in-depth analysis in a very watchable format! Keep up the good work
Thanks man, I really appreciate it!
Enjoyed the video, I am in NW Ohio and all the June reports came from one supercell that followed the Lake Erie shoreline. I think it had 13 or 14 confirmed from it. Definitely an interesting day around here!
Excellent presentation Trey, thanks! Will share with Severe Weather Watchers Australia group 😊
Thanks so much!
Love your videos, would you consider doing a break down of the NE CO supercell that produced 30 🤯 tornados, or is it not interesting enough? lol. Also its been crazy how humid it's been in northern CO 60s dewpoints basically every morning.
Thank you...that breakdown is coming soon! I've got Matador, TX, next on my list and then I plan on tackling that NE CO supercell.
Great video! Looking forward to more forecasts!
Thank you!
@@ConvectiveChronicleslove your vids
Thank you!
Great review. Best weather channel on RUclips
Thank you so much!
Awesome analysis, thanks Trey! Ive heard people say that theres a shortage of radar sites and subsequent incomplete radar coverage. Would you agree? Any idea what criteria they use in building radars in a particular area?
Thank you so much! There are definitely a myriad of locations that desperately need a radar (just off the top of my head: Big Bend region of TX, Wyoming, far SE Colorado, the Louisiana/Arkansas/Mississippi confluence area, and many many more). They've started to add a few here and there to fill the gaps (e.g. Durant, OK; Guymon, OK; although these are not WSR-88Ds), but for now the data is private and there's no telling if it will ever be made public. I honestly don't know the exact criteria they use to determine where to place radars (I assume money, topography, accessibility, etc. all factor in).
The Gulf of Mexico makes the southern USA in particular, like a laboratory for spinning thunderstorms. Without that moisture? No twisters. Great vid, cheers!
Absolutely! Thank you!
You know even moderate success is pretty good given that it’s such a finicky topic.
Might be interesting to do a similar exercise for the “second season” as we transition to cooler months
Great video, and great recap of the year so far.
Could you do a video on the upcoming Fall severe weather season? Here in Dixie Alley, Fall can sometimes be more active than Spring and given El Niño and the above average SST’s in the Gulf of Mexico it would be interesting to see your thoughts on that.
Keep up the good work.
Thanks so much! That's a good idea; I will add it to my list.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesPLEASE DO THAT I live in Florida during the winter and I got a hunch this year could be a little more active
@@ConvectiveChronicles Awesome. I have yet to see anyone speak on that yet
Love your video but remember we still have the Tropical Tornado season for the U,S Which is Late August to Early October than November to December for fall events.. Tornado season may be less but not over, Also is a Local tornado Outbreak possible for day 4 by the SPC?
The original forecast was for traditional tornado season (March-June), not the entire year. This video is meant to assess that forecast.
The day 4 event is looking like mostly a hail/wind threat; day 5 is up in the air.
What a fascinating review and topic. I hope there’ll be a 2024 prediction in the future
Thank you so much! I do plan on making this an annual pre-season upload.
That was a damn good video I must say. Now while a lot of the initial idea of how the tornado season would go in the transition year did kind of vary quite a bit, I'd say for the most part this verified to be pretty spot on for it being right on active for the most part. I think still no matter what people say otherwise....the Keota, IA tornado this year is the clear tornado of the year. The shear structure of that, the meso, the fact it had a sister tornado with it, and the fact well....need to put the fact it was a very high EF4 does boost that up the scales too. Oh and did I mention that was one of the most photogenic tornadoes I think I've ever seen, well...through twitter posts and stuff but still.....what a tornado.
March really blew the numbers out of the water but yeah the April/May months and the blocking that was going on was really weird and it was funny in a way how most other YT people that were hyping up April/May weekly like "well this system is one to watch" kind of got pie in their face with how nothing much really panned out in the months overall. It's kind of crazy how quirky those months were of how quiet they were but that likely was due to the quick transition we were going from neutral to where we stand now on the ENSO scale. June when we went out there from the 8th-17th...we were on the right tornado storms but just had crap ass luck and couldn't get any.....yes like the Springfield, CO one and Beaver, OK storms. Photogenic as hell but man....amazing they never tornado produced. If only, my friends and I could have stayed a few days more....ugh the Chugwater storm...so good.
Anyway, I will say that it was a weird but interesting tornado season but I do find one thing troubling how people are hyping up Winter stuff already on YT and X. Like, it's still the middle of Summer.....what are we doing. I get the idea for ENSO being high and SST but it's just Winter hype and annoying for me to see. As someone from Albany, NY can attest.....you can have ENSO and SST cooked up all you want but it's more complex and if you don't have a cold air pocket, good jet stream, a blocking high, and other stuff, well ENSO and SST won't do much good if your coastal low just yeets off the NC/SC coasts out to see and not curve up North...and doesn't occlude too fast. I swear, I am not sure what is going on in the WX community right now to talk about Winter but it's troubling how misleading or rather....why we talking about this right now?! Makes no sense....at least wait till October and see what the ENSO/SST data shows. I mean damn we need to get through Hurricane season first. XD As you pointed out here.....lot of factors came out to play that shut down April/May for the most part even with the good data from the paper hinting at hot spots and a pretty active "peak months" but man it took El Nino and the subtropical jet to kick in at the right time to save the tornado season in June.
I will be curious myself how the ENSO data is gonna shake out as we go forward as the models were so wrong and we're already at .5C jump....months ahead of the initial forecast...I have a feeling if this keeps up we could get to 1C or higher sooner than we think but we'll see how the much the Pacific temp can cook up. Either way, solid video and I know you got more coming during well, your "offseason" months.....unless something cooks around Norman in the Fall when your 2nd season-ish begins.
Thank you! It is natural for the wx community to start hyping things well ahead of time. While there are some signs for an active fall/winter, it's best to wait and see how things progress.
@ConvectiveChronicles exactly. Hehe at least wait till October as I said.... many factors to change and adjust.
YESSSSSSSSSS!
Can you do a case study on the 2009 super derecho?
I’ll add it to the list
@@ConvectiveChronicleswhich case study is next?
@@tatummvp99 Matador, TX, from June 21.
This is kind of niche, but does anyone know why there are no SPC soundings for pretty much all of Missouri? If you look, theres a huge blank space smack dab in the middle of tornado alley, but there are 3 NWS weather offices within the region
Unfortunately, not every NWS office issues balloons on a daily basis (cost, issues w/ hydrogen, proximity to other offices, etc.). I’m not sure why they don’t do one at, say, STL.
@@ConvectiveChronicles They don't do balloon launches for soundings at the NWS Albany anymore as I think they were under the old system to use helium and they not been online much since November on that. SUNY Albany METR program has a partnership with the NWS and the students for balloon launches but it's once in a blue moon and only seen soundings from Albany here.....I think like 3 times in 2023 but they were in conjunction with SUNY Albany's help. I wish the Albany NWS was able to switch to hydrogen like other NWS have been doing but as you said it's a cost thing and with NYC, BUF, GYX to get data from, there's not much of a need for Albany currently in the budget. There have been some severe days in July I wish they had a 12z launch for but nope....would have been so good to have for my YT videos or just to see what the morning idea for the region here for the upcoming day. THOUGH, they did surprise me early July with one a 18z one for a severe day....but again it's rare.
Do you expect an active thunderstorm trend going into fall since the gulf is hot?
We’ll see! El Niño does tend to favor an active winter in the southern US.
Why was there an increase in activity in the mid Atlantic region of Pennsylvania, New Jersey etc?
Mostly just the leftovers of systems that came through the central US.
👍
I was wondering if you could do a meteorological break down of the June 15th 2023 isolated tornado outbreak in northern Ohio also I appreciate the informative video
Thank you; I can add it to the list.