Prof. Lichtman's 13 keys model sure seems a whole lot more compelling than "polling" that mostly relies on reaching someone on their landline phone in the middle of day who's then willing to talk to you for a while about their political leanings.
@@KomradeKrusher Yes, I've been polled before. Might have happened this week but I quit answering the political calls because there were too many. A consequence of being in a swing state.
idk, to me his keys come off as not that important if you actually read/hear what each one is. I mean, flipping a coin on heads 9 out of 10 times isn't that hard of an accomplishment
I actually hate how Allan lichtman gets portrayed in the media as a crank. If you listen to him speak on his RUclips channel he’s actually a super knowledgeable historian.
I give him props for making a prediction unlike some of these other people who just say it's a tie but no there is no way that keys can predict anything when it's this close. No way the keys can know what a handful of people will do in a few states.
There's something to be said about the fact news outlets get more traffic and attention when things are unpredictable and drive anxiety. It's in their best interest to show it as a tight race.
polls only tell you what the type of people, who will answer a spam call, and agree to participate in a q&a, might prefer... aka: generally senior citizens, and loney people
And potentially give you the answer they feel they are supposed to give. I have talked to bunches of people who will say they support a certain political party to my face because they know I'm an informed leftist and they know their "arguments" hold no water beyond racism, and behind my back tell others at the same party they voted far right.
Also many pollsters survey "likely voters" who are those who voted in either the last presidential (2020) or congressional (2022); missing out on the massive number of people who registered in 2023 and 2024. So looking at what was driving people to register, as well as the pattern of voting in off-nominal elections, and see you a clear pattern (abortion rights concerns) that the polls are missing.. i.e. People are saying 'the economy' is their main concern, but the abortion issue seems to be driving enthusiasm.
❤ I pray Allan is right. I pray that the decision is so indisputable that it cannot be refuted. Blue Tsunami 🌊. All around. The house. The senate. The presidency. Somehow, I feel like republicans will vote overwhelmingly for Kamala and vote the rest of the card down ballot republican. That would be “splitting the baby” for them. But giving Kamala the presidency and tying her hands and making her job impossible. Come on 💙💙💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 I want to be able to fly my American Flag again.
If you're taking Xanax because of election angst, maybe renew your prescription, at least until Harris is sworn in.😄 Win or lose, Trump is going to cause problems.☹
I fear it might take weeks before we get the definite results. 2000 all over again. But this time with the possibility of insurrection and a lot more court cases
@@rvdb7363 Prsumably with the same amount of democrat election meddling: close to nothing, and a bunch of republicans doing it because they are convinced the other side is doing it and neither on any kind of scale significant enough to make a difference. The main "meddling" is the system as it exists, and all of the gerrymandering and court stacking but you probably won't see many republicans complain about those things as I'm fairly sure that's the only thing keeping them from being about as niche as the independents.
Any candidate talking about the lower...class? 🤔 But what about the lower class, isn't the lower class the most...needy of all, lol. Candidates are like "We'll just pretend as if the lower class does not exist."
Presidents will never address the "lower" class. Because simply having a lower class, makes...the... presidents...appear... incompetent... If you're such a great president, why, the huge number of needy people...
"Middle class, middle class, middle class, middle class..." Because we have no lower class, cannot go any lower, than middle class. Duh. 🤣😆👌 Politicians will never utter the bad words "lower...class" from behind their polished podiums.
@@hoaxheaven “The working poor” are part of the lower class, in addition to those that don’t work. Advocating for the raising of the minimum wage is for them.
Get your friends and family who are on the fence to come with you ‼️‼️💙💙 Promise them a dinner, make it an event, take selfies and pictures and get on your social media 💙💙‼️‼️
I don’t have a landline, I don’t answer my phone if I get a call from an unknown number, and I don’t reply to texts from unknown numbers. I know this is pretty common, especially for younger generations, so how are the polls even accurate?
I looked through eyes to see men in a group standing under an Acacia tree The leader stepped forward with the btightest earm smile. He spoke to me on clucks and showede...a crayon drawing of whitehouse in Autumn with joy hope and love all around. That not donOLD.
Doesn't have anything to do with trust. Representative polls rely on 1. Randomization: Ensures that each member of a population has an equal chance of selection, reducing bias and making the sample more representative. 2. Stratification: Divides the population into distinct groups (like age, income, or geography) and samples within each group to improve representativeness and precision. 3. Weighting: Adjusts the sample data to better match the known characteristics of the overall population, helping correct for imbalances. 4. Margin of Error: Quantifies the uncertainty in the poll’s results, typically expressed as a percentage, indicating how much the results could vary due to sampling error. 5. Confidence Level: Indicates the probability (often 95%) that the true population parameter lies within the margin of error, adding further context to the poll’s reliability.
There is one thing it doesn't take into account though: younger generations don't answer the phone. I've seen interns panic by my suggestion that the quickest answer to their question would be a phone call.
@@rvdb7363Yeah... that's the big challenge randomization has...which is known since the Literary Digest disaster where they received 2.4 million answers...and were completely off. To get a poll with 99% confidence and 1% margin of error one has to receive 16,590 responses...but as you correctly mentioned: how do they get an accurate random amount when they don't know through which channels they can communicate with all people they ask and where people respond. That's why today's ports are all of so much. Which in return leads to non-representative polls that claim that it's 50/50...or close to 50/50. In short: polling is dead.
Pollsters, no, not really... Educated and insightful analysts who look at *all* the issues, signals and trends, yes, probably. (ie: Trump is going to get crushed even though the polls show that it's "tied")
Let's hope so! I truly hope there's a LOT of people in red areas who are just too afraid to admit they don't want to support a madman, but will actually vote with their brain, and not acording to peer pressure and faux news lies.
It's by far the most profitable for the media in general to report on the election being as even as possible because otherwise people might stop paying attention. Now both sides of the aisle are at a fever pitch, which means eyeballs. Even outside the US there's hardly anything else people talk about.
If you already know who the winner is, then there's no point in having an election. The anxiety of waiting is how you know democracy is working as it should.
I'm way less anxious with our own elections (multiparty system) than with the USA elections. With a multiparty system the damage is limited. Last elections the far right party became the largest party with 23,5% of votes, so they have 23,5% of seats in Parliament. They actually tried to declare a state of emergency, which would allow them to bypass Parliament. But they couldn't, because the other parties in the coalition wouldn't let them destroy democracy.
It's the money....follow the money. During election campaigns the BEST job to have is a pollster....a prognosticator. They will go away for a while and then come back out and be all over the media.
Trust the media's talking heads? Why? They are so seldom right and only keep everyone's anxiety level sky high. I haven't paid attention to them in years. Not going to start now. Lihtman's system seems a lot more sane.
Well, they asked a whole 1,000 people. That seems accurate enough to extrapolate out to millions of votes, right? While they are also playing around with “weights” to get it to read a certain way. They definitely aren’t totally accurate, and they aren’t totally inaccurate. I think the true weight gives Kamala a few points lead. I have seen more swing that way than the other.
This is the same attitude MAGA took when they were banging on about a red wave in 2022 even though the polls told an entirely different story. Want to guess which was right?
The genuine look of breaking down mentally after "That's a bad sign" was not acted! The guy has fears for sure! Also when the moon is full I grow hair on the top of my ears. Not wolf's amount but just some fluff!
I like Lichtman. He's well spoken, very knowledgeable, and a great resource for determining elections. He and his son have a great channel.
Also, great hair.
@@drewcampbell8555unlike trump
The astrologist sounded exactly how I thought she would.
Who cares, she said Kamala wins! 😂
@@ArnoldSchwarzenegger-ny2jn uhhhhhh?
She seemed to have more reliable data than the pollsters somehow.
Yeah and is about as bright as I expected
Prof. Lichtman's 13 keys model sure seems a whole lot more compelling than "polling" that mostly relies on reaching someone on their landline phone in the middle of day who's then willing to talk to you for a while about their political leanings.
And to assume that person is telling the truth.
That certainly puts things into perspective
@@univalent15 I mean, have you or anyone you know or anyone anyone you know knows ever been polled?
@@KomradeKrusher Yes, I've been polled before. Might have happened this week but I quit answering the political calls because there were too many. A consequence of being in a swing state.
idk, to me his keys come off as not that important if you actually read/hear what each one is. I mean, flipping a coin on heads 9 out of 10 times isn't that hard of an accomplishment
I actually hate how Allan lichtman gets portrayed in the media as a crank. If you listen to him speak on his RUclips channel he’s actually a super knowledgeable historian.
I agree! His keys are based on science and historical patterns which can be peer reviewed. Polling on the other hand is pseudoscience.
Political scientists think he’s a bit of a crank…
Too true, and he’s been correct on all of them since he started (even Al Gore’s 2000 win (see “hanging chad”))
@@Yourmission9With how many political people and historians there are who make predictions, SOMEONE has to be correct at least 90% of the time.
@@orangexylemwell Name another one then.
Voting💙may stop unwanted presidency🐈⬛🚩
Always
😂
😂😂😂😂😂 Is that new "Unwanted Presidency"? They should use it more
Trump2024 🇺🇸 💪 🇺🇸 💪 we got this so long word salad 🥗 kamala Harris 🤮
Camela🐪 will end up spitting and not swallowing this election😅😅😅
He did blink at the end though, you just couldn't see it Grace!
Love Grace! And agree - Prof Lichtman's metrics for evaluating a candidate are far more rational, and representative than phone polling.
Who’s gonna tell my girlfriend 😂😂😂
That astrologist was not ready for that one
I trust in Professor Allan Lichtman's 13 keys. 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
I trust in Professor Tripp’s Starheal chart. 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
@@floku8950 You were probably agreeing with Lichtman's prediction 8 years ago when he said Trump was going to win.
@@KristofferNocon-Kahlke what makes you think that?
trust is not enough! go vote!
Trump2024 🇺🇸 💪 🇺🇸 💪 🇺🇸 💪
That was surprisingly comforting.
Except I was most engaged with the astrologer and I'm an MBA. I need to go touch some grass.
@ 😆
These segments are where Grace shines
Disagree. I think she’s utterly annoying and unfunny.
@@Jamesfrancosdog I think she did well with the astrologist
I love Grace. She doesn't always nail it, but when she does, she REALLY nails it.
I trust my fellow Taurus, Alan Lichtman 💙🗳️🇺🇸
Trump2024 🇺🇸 💪 🇺🇸 💪 🇺🇸
@@TomStarcevich-fb3qo 😂
@@TomStarcevich-fb3qoDUDE. You have over 100 comments on this channel. You’ve got to get a life. 😂
In Lichtman we Trust.
Love Allan! Love to see him here!
The US and the WORLD need this chaos to end. Vote blue babyyyy.
Grace is hilarious.
Said no one ever
TRUST THE KEYS!
Nah I’m trusting the astrologist. They’ve never been wrong, right?
I give him props for making a prediction unlike some of these other people who just say it's a tie but no there is no way that keys can predict anything when it's this close. No way the keys can know what a handful of people will do in a few states.
go vote!
@@Turgeon12yeah that's very true they are Wrong 99.99999999% of the Time 😂
She’s great. Look forward to more clips with her.🌻
I love her, too.
Ew, she’s not in any way funny or original
@@JamesfrancosdogSounds like you have a lot in common then
There's something to be said about the fact news outlets get more traffic and attention when things are unpredictable and drive anxiety. It's in their best interest to show it as a tight race.
polls only tell you what the type of people, who will answer a spam call, and agree to participate in a q&a, might prefer... aka: generally senior citizens, and loney people
And potentially give you the answer they feel they are supposed to give. I have talked to bunches of people who will say they support a certain political party to my face because they know I'm an informed leftist and they know their "arguments" hold no water beyond racism, and behind my back tell others at the same party they voted far right.
Also many pollsters survey "likely voters" who are those who voted in either the last presidential (2020) or congressional (2022); missing out on the massive number of people who registered in 2023 and 2024. So looking at what was driving people to register, as well as the pattern of voting in off-nominal elections, and see you a clear pattern (abortion rights concerns) that the polls are missing.. i.e. People are saying 'the economy' is their main concern, but the abortion issue seems to be driving enthusiasm.
I am prepared to start believing in astrology if Amy’s prediction is correct!
We shall see if Grace falls for Trump 🤣
Well I'm a Libra .....
And Libras don't believe in astrology .....
😜
Americans, please vote. Allan and Astrology need you to vote to get it done!
❤ I pray Allan is right. I pray that the decision is so indisputable that it cannot be refuted. Blue Tsunami 🌊. All around. The house. The senate. The presidency. Somehow, I feel like republicans will vote overwhelmingly for Kamala and vote the rest of the card down ballot republican. That would be “splitting the baby” for them. But giving Kamala the presidency and tying her hands and making her job impossible. Come on 💙💙💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 I want to be able to fly my American Flag again.
My Xanax subscription runs out tomorrow but I shouldn't need it anymore! 🎉
Lol lets hope! Vote!
If you're taking Xanax because of election angst, maybe renew your prescription, at least until Harris is sworn in.😄 Win or lose, Trump is going to cause problems.☹
@@sailincat2822 I'm thinking if he wins he sets the whole world on fire, if he loses "just" a lot of the US
I fear it might take weeks before we get the definite results. 2000 all over again. But this time with the possibility of insurrection and a lot more court cases
@@rvdb7363 Prsumably with the same amount of democrat election meddling: close to nothing, and a bunch of republicans doing it because they are convinced the other side is doing it and neither on any kind of scale significant enough to make a difference. The main "meddling" is the system as it exists, and all of the gerrymandering and court stacking but you probably won't see many republicans complain about those things as I'm fairly sure that's the only thing keeping them from being about as niche as the independents.
From Allan's mouth to the ballots cast 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
GRACE ROCKS 😁
I honestly can't tell if the astrology part was satire 😭
Astrology lady is obviously an alien so…
I was going to say, her eyes are further apart than the constellations 😂😂
I really couldn't tell if she was serious
SCOTUS decided Bush v. Gore, but I’ve always believed Gore won Florida but scotus overrode the complete “recount.”
❤ Prof. Lichtman! Phenomenal analyst
Love this comedienne- her timing is great! Thanks for the laugh. It made me feel better, at least for a little while.
Billionaire felon v Middle Class prosecutor.
Any candidate talking about the lower...class?
🤔
But what about the lower class,
isn't the lower class the most...needy of all, lol.
Candidates are like
"We'll just pretend as if the lower class does not exist."
Presidents will never address the "lower" class.
Because simply having a lower class,
makes...the... presidents...appear... incompetent...
If you're such a great president, why, the huge number of needy people...
"Middle class, middle class, middle class, middle class..."
Because we have no lower class, cannot go any lower, than middle class.
Duh.
🤣😆👌
Politicians will never utter the bad words "lower...class" from behind their polished podiums.
@@hoaxheaven “The working poor” are part of the lower class, in addition to those that don’t work. Advocating for the raising of the minimum wage is for them.
Voting for Trump is a straight up vote for stupidity.
..... he loves the poorly educated ....
That astrology lady was creepy.
grifting seems to pay very well, unfortunately.
@@Krazie-Ivanjust ask Trump lol
At the polls rn, surreality has set in
Please proofread before posting
I second that “ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh”.
I just love Grace Kolensmat...wait...Kulenshmut..NONONO 😉 ...I love you Grace Kuhlenschmidt. The Netherlands🌷🌷🌷❤
WHY HAVEN'T YOU VOTED YET, YOU SON OF A MOTHER! VOTE VOTE VOTE!
Grace was great tonite! 🎉
Latinos 🙍🏻🙍🏼🙍🏽🙍🏾🙍🏿
Vote..💙 Señora Presidenta
It's latinx, bigot
Luv her. Give Grace more air time!
I adore Grace
I love the astrology bit.... her face made me actually BELIEVE her b.s.🤣
Grace is really coming into her own. Some of her earlier segments seemed a little forced but she seems to have found her groove. She was hilarious.
Thank you for this video it helps with the anxiety a little
That "Who's gonna tell my girlfriend?" line was great lol
Grace should do more interviews like this !
She's really funny here xD
Get your friends and family who are on the fence to come with you ‼️‼️💙💙
Promise them a dinner, make it an event, take selfies and pictures and get on your social media 💙💙‼️‼️
So the prosecutor becomes the President, and the felon becomes the inmate. I love a happy ending! 😍 💕
Grace rocks!
If Kamala dos end up winning, probably gonna get myself an astrology reading...
said it before, I'll say it again. Anyone trusting polls after 2016, regardless of past accuracy is absolutely begging for disappointment.
I don’t have a landline, I don’t answer my phone if I get a call from an unknown number, and I don’t reply to texts from unknown numbers. I know this is pretty common, especially for younger generations, so how are the polls even accurate?
Grace, you do rock 🫶🏻💜
I think it is hilarious Allan knew his astrological sign. 😂
I don't care about astrology but I do know my sign, I think you kinda absorb that info by being alive
@ainumahtar probably
I thought everybody knew their sign.
@wgooetrik Some folks don't know
Go vote! Polls and predictions don’t matter, voting is what decides. 💙
I voted 3 weeks ago!
Grace is awesome 😂
I looked through eyes to see men in a group standing under an Acacia tree
The leader stepped forward with the btightest earm smile. He spoke to me on clucks and showede...a crayon drawing of whitehouse in Autumn with joy hope and love all around. That not donOLD.
Grab em by the ballot!
Omgilove her she was like in my head
Go Grace 😂❤
Doesn't have anything to do with trust.
Representative polls rely on
1. Randomization: Ensures that each member of a population has an equal chance of selection, reducing bias and making the sample more representative.
2. Stratification: Divides the population into distinct groups (like age, income, or geography) and samples within each group to improve representativeness and precision.
3. Weighting: Adjusts the sample data to better match the known characteristics of the overall population, helping correct for imbalances.
4. Margin of Error: Quantifies the uncertainty in the poll’s results, typically expressed as a percentage, indicating how much the results could vary due to sampling error.
5. Confidence Level: Indicates the probability (often 95%) that the true population parameter lies within the margin of error, adding further context to the poll’s reliability.
There is one thing it doesn't take into account though: younger generations don't answer the phone. I've seen interns panic by my suggestion that the quickest answer to their question would be a phone call.
@@rvdb7363Yeah... that's the big challenge randomization has...which is known since the Literary Digest disaster where they received 2.4 million answers...and were completely off.
To get a poll with 99% confidence and 1% margin of error one has to receive 16,590 responses...but as you correctly mentioned: how do they get an accurate random amount when they don't know through which channels they can communicate with all people they ask and where people respond.
That's why today's ports are all of so much. Which in return leads to non-representative polls that claim that it's 50/50...or close to 50/50.
In short: polling is dead.
Pollsters, no, not really... Educated and insightful analysts who look at *all* the issues, signals and trends, yes, probably. (ie: Trump is going to get crushed even though the polls show that it's "tied")
From your lips (or fingertips) directly to God's ear, my friend!
Let's hope so! I truly hope there's a LOT of people in red areas who are just too afraid to admit they don't want to support a madman, but will actually vote with their brain, and not acording to peer pressure and faux news lies.
It’s the marketing department’s fault!
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!
Oh Allan, that hair piece is not fooling anybody
Lolol at my husband is going to jail. I’m hollering!
That’s it I’m going into work as one of these goofballs. Every year it’s deadlocked. I’ll take 200k a year please.
It's by far the most profitable for the media in general to report on the election being as even as possible because otherwise people might stop paying attention. Now both sides of the aisle are at a fever pitch, which means eyeballs. Even outside the US there's hardly anything else people talk about.
Polls can be manipulated
2:07 I like his hair 😉
My takeaway from this election’s polling is that I don’t like touchscreen TVs anymore.
"I mean are you gonna tell my girlfriend or am I?" 💀💀
Grace your super funny 🔥🖖🏽🙌🏾🙏🏽
I can’t wait to come back to this video in a few days and say “yes they were right”
If you already know who the winner is, then there's no point in having an election.
The anxiety of waiting is how you know democracy is working as it should.
There is no real "election" the "race" is fake, it is all pre-planned.
People are totally oblivious to how deceitful the government is.
I'm way less anxious with our own elections (multiparty system) than with the USA elections. With a multiparty system the damage is limited. Last elections the far right party became the largest party with 23,5% of votes, so they have 23,5% of seats in Parliament. They actually tried to declare a state of emergency, which would allow them to bypass Parliament. But they couldn't, because the other parties in the coalition wouldn't let them destroy democracy.
@@rvdb7363
The "elections" are totally staged though...
she's perfect 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Fantastic stupendous comedy
I was so nervous, but the astrologist put my doubts to rest 😮💨
It's the money....follow the money. During election campaigns the BEST job to have is a pollster....a prognosticator. They will go away for a while and then come back out and be all over the media.
"So my husband is going to jail." ☠️☠️☠️
I'm 13 seconds in, and I feel this mood
I saw this chick on Stavros’ podcast
Even though these are all jokes, it made me feel a little better about today.
What’s the brand name of that water heater?
Today's gonna feel like doing Hot Ones over and over and over and o.....
My V is on his whatnow? 😁
She is hilarious. And a breath of fresh air.
I don't really believe in astrology, but seeing that astrologer's house, I definitely should've made that my career.
Grace, so funny
Trust the media's talking heads? Why? They are so seldom right and only keep everyone's anxiety level sky high. I haven't paid attention to them in years. Not going to start now. Lihtman's system seems a lot more sane.
The fault, dear Donald, lies not in your star chart, but in yourself.
Funny cuz me or anyone I know have never taken any of these so called "polls" or even been asked to take one for that matter.
Exactly.
Poll, lol?
Poll, where,
I see no poll, I never have seen any poll,
where is the poll they speak of...🤔
They're like "The...POLL!"
Poll...where...what...poll...
Well, they asked a whole 1,000 people. That seems accurate enough to extrapolate out to millions of votes, right? While they are also playing around with “weights” to get it to read a certain way.
They definitely aren’t totally accurate, and they aren’t totally inaccurate. I think the true weight gives Kamala a few points lead. I have seen more swing that way than the other.
@@Kyle_P
🤣 🤣👏👌
They poll like 5 people "Here ya go, poll results, we know everyone's opinion."
✅
This is the same attitude MAGA took when they were banging on about a red wave in 2022 even though the polls told an entirely different story. Want to guess which was right?
We won't know until it's over, anything else is just as effective as reading tea leaves.
I believe Alan 🇺🇲🗳
The genuine look of breaking down mentally after "That's a bad sign" was not acted! The guy has fears for sure! Also when the moon is full I grow hair on the top of my ears. Not wolf's amount but just some fluff!
2:40 My prediction . . . PAIN!
So... American version of Philomena Cunk?
The astrologer gives me the most confidence unironically lol
Luckily the USA uses fahrenheit. Could have been a completely different picture if they used celcius
May the US recover from its electoral dysfunction.