Boomers were not mostly hippies or counter culture as a whole, most were largely conformist. This is a common misperception. Hippies were a very small minority located on the west coast. Reminder that Richard Nixon won 52 percent of "under 30" voters in the 1972 U.S. presidential election.
And most of those hippies were in colleges like Stanford and Berkeley and then went on to become woke academics later and placed themselves in positions of authority and influence. The ones who were voting for Nixon at the time were vast bulks of blue collar workers with families to feed, thus no real future influence or authority to change policy.
I'm pretty sure the hippy movement was a psyop started by federal agents to discredit in the eyes of the public those that opposed Vietnam. The first people to protest the war were clean cut well respected men of the church
@@HansenFT - then you're saying that perception trumps reality. if that's your conclusion, then what matters is whatever Neil Howe or some other institution pontificates.
Agreed. My mindset never really grasped cycles and now that's my view on everything. Truly I think this is a supercycle: finance, generation, solar weather periods
But also bad men & good men. are you referring to politicians? I think the turnings are not defined by the incumbent politician but the central banking system…no?
1:01: 📚 Neil Howe and Bill Strauss developed the theory of generational change and wrote a history of America as a sequence of generational biographies. 5:40: 📚 The speaker discusses the patterns of generational cycles in American history and how they correspond to social moods and the state of institutions. 11:55: 🔄 The speaker discusses generational dynamics and the cyclical nature of history. 17:40: 📊 The cycle of realigning elections in America occurs during periods of crises or awakenings, leading to a redefinition of political parties. 23:55: 📚 In the search for community and to escape loneliness and isolation, Millennials gravitate towards social media platforms and value fitting in with the middle class, which is the opposite of what Boomers desired. 30:04: 🇺🇸 The US experienced a shift from internal conflict to a sense of national urgency during the late 1930s and early 1940s, leading to a reconstruction of its civic institutions. 35:21: 🌍 The current conflict between the United States and China can be compared to the internal and external conflicts during the American Revolution. 40:59: ✨ The fourth turning is a period of radical transformation that is necessary for societies to rejuvenate and ensure social equality. 46:28: 📚 Neil's book, which has been on the New York Times bestseller list for three weeks, explores the concept of generational turnings and the role of conflict in shaping society. Recap by Tammy AI
It's setup like this somewhat . The information we receive throughout life is flawed or biased . To truely get accurate data is the zen of decision making ..
As generation X'er, I have thought about growing up without all the freedom I had. And to honest, I would not change shit. I loved the freedom. It was hard, but I am a better person for it.
I doubt you could ever choose the opposite of what you knew. How could you? It's impossible to know how it would have been and how you would have adapted. Each generation becomes what each generation gets. That's his point.
@@rockycodyjesse too bad that their numbers are, when compared to the Boomers, so reduced in number, that they'll be forced to make some truly BRUTAL decisions once the Most Selfish Generation in history dumps all their economic debt and shenanigans onto Gen X's laps! lol. The second half of this decade will be The Trial of Fire for Gen X, so I do hope that everyone else in that generation had fun when younger, too! Because that Bottomless Punchbowl that's always been there at the big party? It ain't gonna be there for much longer...
Great interview, 71 and apt is commendable. Challenging times might be closer than we think. The gains have largely been powered by the AI boom in tech that has led to an unstable situation
The delayed impact of the global interest rate spikes, steady erosion of consumer savings and post-COVID pent-up demand, and deeply troubling global geopolitical context will result in market declines and re-emergence of market volatility
@@marcoerrett I agree. High-yield dividend stocks come immediately to mind as they offer steady passive income streams at inflation-beating levels, for a certain return should these crazy markets turn south.
@@PurvisTwiggs On the contrary those high yields don’t mean the equivalent amount in dollars will be disbursed, I will advice seeking counsel from a local broker, I myself work with a fiduciary in New York although I am in South Dakota.
I have turned over more than half mil working with Loren on a wide array of options and finally sticking to a few that have been favorable in the past 2 years. I began working with her in October 22 after the Fed lended 300b usd for stimulus to stem crisis, I knew I needed help. What makes folks think I won’t further draw from my 401k?
Thank you for conducting this interview. I am 57 ...too young to be a boomer and almost too old to be a GenXer. My siblings are late boomers, and my parents were technically early boomers but acted very much like the Silent Generation. So I have always felt out of sync with these generational cycles. Therefore I really appreciate Neil's "turnings" theory... I can really relate to my own life's timeline within this discussion of turnings. I struggle with the current political uncertainty and unrest we are experiencing, but Neil's theory offers light at the end of the tunnel,... even though we probably have a pretty scary tunnel ahead until we get there.
Just started listening, but based on the cyclical nature of things, things will get a lot worse. And the question is, are you preparing? And how? For me, it's about being self reliant on your own property outside the city, and not close to any big metropolis. After the next even, and there will be one, things will get that much worse. More people will lose their home, more crime will happnen, and they will then use this make more draconian laws. I'm of the opinion that these cycles are are manufactured by the elite to shape and guide humanity. And their goal is to have America changed by 2030.
As a classic Gen Xer, I do fit the Nomad type, I did grow up with less supervision and more resourcefulness and more individualism. That's morphed into independence and skepticism of our institutions. I grew up much differently than the millennial did. I do think as Boomers age out and the crisis period is now beginning, Gen X and Millenials are in a position to navigate our world through it.
2 worthless generations IMO. I don't see them doing much of anything. Furthermore, if you watch the same topic on the whiteboard demonstration (The Fourth Turning) 10+ min., you will see that things are cyclical. We are in the destruction phase. Stopping what is coming is like trying to stop the winter from coming. You prepare for winter in the same manner you should for what's coming. And what's coming is all manufacture because they want us living ina digitial gulag. Notice, not ONE politician calls out the technocracy? Even as a KID in the 80s, I knew that these jokers were liars. Somehow, people keep voting for the lesser of 2 evils. I voted once, and that was for Ross Perot. Sending our jobs overseas not being a good idea? Wow, rocket soience. But yet, all these idiot adults voted for the other 2. At 19 I knew better. Digressing back to the technocracy, it's all manufactured. People don't have ears to hear with. Klaus over at the WEF and his minion Yuval Noah Harari talk about this plan, as do many others. And they have their YGL's implementing it. Young Global Leaders, most people never heard of them. That Republican who sounds good (funny enough, sounds just like Obama with his speech patterns and inflection - clearly studied him, and why not? Obama was a good speaker), but he too is a YGL. He's that young Indian dude. Klaus has even stated, on record, that his YGL's have penetrated many government cabinets to implement their plan. So when people act as though what's happneing is organic, it's just nonsense and illustrates their profound lack of understanding. And if you tell them, they'll run to google or YT to find the truth which further illustrates how lost they are. Unless you are growing food on your land that is out of the city, away from any big metropolis, and doing whatever you can to avoid the mayhem that is coming, then you are losing the sum game. Let the buffoons reap what they sew. At least the people on the Right know that the country is in freefall, the people on the Left are actively voting for it. Insane. Pick a highly conservative area, and move there. That's the first step in your survival. When I relocated, I looked at how people voted in the 2020 election and used that as a guide. Aside from thinking that Trumps going to save the day, their pretty good people. And they know what the hell a man is, or woman.
Such a good interview with intelligent and respectful observations. I'm a boomer and I have lots of millennial friends. I used to work in the educational field and now I'm in healthcare. I can totally relate with much of these opinions. I really appreciate this conversation. Let's hope Americans are around to see how things turn out in the early 2030s.
The reasons for the cycles Mr. Howe noticed is that there have been no 'real' changes in our social system since the beginning of recorded history; a bit of change in size, but not much more than that. The details are nice of course, thanks :)
I’m currently retired, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, I decided to stay on the sideline for awhile, now I’m worried with the numerous bank failures as of late, am I better off reinvesting my savings in the stock market or do I wait?
Given the prevailing market conditions and the potential risks associated with the current economy, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.
true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
It's best you do your due diligence, I have my portfolio overseen by NICOLE DESIREE SIMON‘’ and her qualifications speak for itself. Most likely, the internet is where to find basic info, she has a noticeable page for consulting.
Frodo: I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened. Gandalf: So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us.
In Howe's mind, the 3rd Turning has progressively been delayed through time. He originally envisioned it as beginning in the early 80's, then, by the time of The Fourth Turning came out, it was the mid 80's, and now it's the late 80's/early 90's. To be consistent (both to test the validity of the theory and to correctly intepret where this cycle is going), I think we need to stick with the early 80's (or even better, the late 70's). That's when the "Awakening" ended and the "Unraveling" began. In fact, everyone alive back then spontaneously knows this to be true. The Western world collectively felt a huge shift in epoch between, say, 1977 and 1983, the front and end of those years painting an entirely different picture. For just a single sample, one can watch the movie "Forrest Gump" (1994), where, in the subtext, this shift in epoch unspoken, is yet taken entirely for granted.
Howe has made the mistake of trying to be too specific on future predictions based on these past patterns, and has overstated the significance of events, especially those that occurred during the 2000s. The Fourth Turning crisis has to be something that completely remakes society and completely reshapes our institutions. 9/11 didn't do it. The war on terror didn't do it. The 2008 financial crisis didn't do it. Donald Trump did, however. The legalization of same-sex marriage and the backlash against that did. The pandemic and the second worst economic crash in American history did. I agree on the early 80s as the beginning of the unravelling and the first half of the 2010s as the end. I'd place the legalization of same-sex marriage was the beginning of the real crisis (for context, I support same-sex marriage, but in terms of our societal health, it's something we are having a difficult time digesting and was responsible for unleashing fascism). The climax kicked off in 2020 and the next few years will be perilous. We'll be headed into a new high in the early 2030s. I'm hoping for the optimistic outcome.
@@Withnail1969 Yeah, 1980 is a good candidate year for the Third Turning. The Iron Lady was already at 10 Downing Street, and Ronald Reagan was elected president. Perhaps also 1979, or even earlier.
This "Fourth Turning" grift is astrology for people with an interest in history. It is a textbook example of contorting observations to fit a predetermined conclusion.
I hate to say it, but this makes so much sense in every aspect. How I miss the 80s when everything was becoming better all the time and the future looked so bright ahead. I don’t want to go through this crisis at all. But it looks like we have to. So buckle up ‘cause here we go 😢
So, instead of evolving are we simply like a person trapped in tidal variances where he reacts and briefly escapes being trapped in the tide but he never truly learns and he ends up caught in the tidal churns all over again? As an 80 year old senior this is my new question because, given current trends I feel pretty hopeless. Look at permanent irrecoverable population decline possibly ending these repetitive cycles?
I don’t have firm opinions on long term cycles, why I accept something like this has a reality of individual and collective conscious. And as we move to global online reality, it makes sense patterns via social contagion explode, like gender ideology now. We now have institutional capture by post-reality ideas, everyone focusing on their pet ideologies, and reality grinds is all forwards on crises we can’t predict except that they are coming and more things will break and shock us. We are all sleep walking. We have too many expectations, too few adults doing adult things.
I’m happier at a “gods eye” view of neutral observer above the messiness of living life. I see what is needed at the living level (to avoid just being reactive) is conviction of what is worth defending and what can be surrendered. People who can do that are what generates a future with some consciousness. We must all soon be brave, day by day, close to home, where choices matter.
And now, as a society that recognizes itself as an entity with its own life cycles, how do we use what we know to create this turning point? How does group consciousness create forward, together? Maybe we can avoid the crises and go straight to the awakening?
That would depend on the level of education said society has to be able to recognize the idea of a cyclical being and to act on it. Take for example, climate change.
Not a chance. That's like trying to stop the winter from coming. We are in the phase of destruction. It's coming. The question is, are you voting for change? Do you think that some asshat in political office is going to save the day? Or are you just on your knees and praying to God that he saves the world? None of that is going to happen. I think when a man is on a sinking boat, God wants him to jump off and try to save himself, first. Then divine intervention may or may not happen. Buy land outside the city, being becoming self- reliant. That's the start of your solution. God, self, community - that's the solution.
This is a topic that can't be discussed accurately and fully without talking about the Moral Majority and the long-term struggle between religious and secular governance. That is the theme that underpins the current crisis. The sooner we admit that as a society, the better chance we will have to get through it as a free democracy. People are too afraid to point out the elephant in the room.
The moral majority was neither moral or a majority. Moral doesn't mean whatever Jerry Falwell said it does. I'd argue that in the Trump era, it's the evangelical Christians that have lost morality. I know what you are thinking...the liberals support the disgusting abomination called sodomy and there's nothing more immoral than that. I'd remind you Hitler hated gay people and had them exterminated, but would you call him moral? There's more to morality than how strongly you hate gay people. Why should the religion of a minority get to impose it's will on all 300 million Americans?@@williamf3988
@@williamf3988 No, @bchristian85 didn't say that. I remember the "Moral Majority". They existed solely to move the Evangelical Christians into the Republican Party on the issues of "pro-life" in reality forced birtherism and "pro-family" in reality dedication to maintaining and restoring invidious discrimination against gay men and lesbians.
The distinguishing characteristic of the "Fourth Turning" astrology is that it's *perpetually* being refitted so that it "seems to tie in with the current division and destruction in society". It's more a kind of millennarian cult than a serious perspective on history.
One thing I'd be interested to know is how strongly the general culture in the 1920s/30s romanticized the 1870s/80s. Were they are nostalgic for the 1870s/80s as people today are for the 1950s?
SAVAGE! lol I'm not depressed about it. I was telling people about the towers falling back in the day and how it was manufactured. Did people listen? No. I told people about the cashless society 20 years ago. Did people listen? No. Now they are openly and have been for the last many years about the CBDC. People are so clueless and stupid that they don't even know what a CBDC stands for. How on earth will they have any clue about anything else? I told people a few years ago about the ending of modern agriculture. Did anyone listen? No. Now they are talking about getting people to eat insects and cows, chickens, and other source of meat causing "global warming". It's all a manufactured crisis. So, I'm not bothered by people reaping what they sew at all. Good riddance. They made the world worse for myself. And they continued doing so with the plandemic wearing their face diaper that can in NO WAY filter out a virus. WAY too small. Do these people listen? No. So...be gone. I'll be on my property saying F it. Let it all burn down.
I have long been a student of long cycles. George Modelski has a considerably more sophisticated theory, also relying on Kondratieff waves. My problem with Strauss and Howe is that, ironically given Howe’s title as demographer, his theory and the Crisis component in particular does not take into account the unprecedented demographic changes the world is facing. This is best seen in light of the idea that, for example, a foreign power exists that could play the role of the UK, the French (1770’s) or Germany/Japan (1940s) in this next turning. China will almost certainly be in a state of civilizational collapse by the early 2030s. Their demographic collapse-estimates are that they will lose ~1/2 their population by 2050-is imminent and China has a tendency to fly apart in difficult times. Short of a nuclear terror incident that would finally tip your country fully into a neofascist future led by Wall Street, Big Tech, the Surveillance State-imagine the kind of Patriot Act on steroids and abuse of the FISA system you’d get in that scenario-and the institutional elites that are all led by a single party, any 4th Turning Crisis will be internal and a period in which the genuinely democratic element of your republic is replaced by the softly despotic regime Tocqueville saw in America’s future. You are about to live through an unprecedented secular (vs cyclical) event that will swamp the effects of any cyclical change.
Remember the Back to the Land Movement of the 60's, the boomers were looking to create communes/communal living and also joined spiritual ashrams. So that is an example that differs from that gen wanting to avoid groups. But the communes were not about suburbia, and were generally a gathering of the "me" generation, gatherings of individuals,. Rather than creating a mono culture where conformity was the norm, they wanted to do their own "thing" which ultimately led to the failing of such project I would surmise.
Hmm I am torn between believing in my horoscope and the fourth turning.. both seem very convincing.. to be honest his generalisations about people seem crackpot to me, I don't recognise them at all in the people around me here in Europe.
Well to be fair, Europeans never recognize anything concerning in nature until it drops onto their heads like an atomic bomb. Remember how many years Europe stood by watching the massacre of Bosnians before...the Americans had to come in and clean up your mess for you? lol I mean...over-reliance on Russia for most of one's natural resources, mass importation of non-assimilating non-European male migrants, relying on a "green" tech revolution which has so-far failed to cut even 3% of global carbon emissions, and shutting down nuclear power plants at a time of rising fuel prices...these are such problem-free, pie-in-the-sky ideas...what could possibly go wrong? lol. /s
It's very America-centric. The boomer experience in Europe would have been starkly different from an American experience during that time. Today, Europe and America are a lot more similar than they were back then. I think some of Howe's specifics are off, but I do agree with his cycles. I don't think he places enough emphasis on the religious/secular tension and how strong of a part that plays in current politics.
Time is a convenient metaphor to encapsulate an architecture unseen by the naked eye. Kudos to authors recognizing a repeating pattern. But this fourth turning is squat squarely in the age of electronics, digitization and computerization emergent Ai. Why has transformation not compressed the space of turning presents an interesting side effect going forward. It begs whether technology, the purpose of it, advances society and furtherance of humanity on which the authors’ work is based
Very little science used here. Doesn't mean there isn't possibly some truth in these ideas its just that one should take these ideas as the anecdotes and emotion based opinions that they are and not make the mistake of seeing them as demonstably factual in any way. Still, conceptually quite interesting.
IQ is a measure of pattern recognition not even problem solving, it’s about impossible for a human to find a needle in a haystack, but with knowledge, and or practice we can do pretty remarkable things.
Gold is the money for Kings and Queens. Silver is the money for ladies and gentlemen. Barter is the currency for the poor. Fiat money is the currency for slaves. Got Gold? Got Silver!?
Technocracy is the umbrella. AI just falls under the umbrella. Technocracy will allegedly take over politics and the court system. AI will compute your social credit score. No one is stopping what's coming. You're either going to capitulate, or you will be on your own land living outside the system and slowly be weeded out of it. There's no other 2 ways about it.
You probably won't see this,but I read that whenever Neptune is in Aries and Uranus is in Gemini,the US has a major war.This was the configuration during the Civil War,and is due again in 2026.We're in for a bumpy ride for sure.
Please make this a permanent or semi permanent segment. You and Neil work so well together. 'Boomer and millennial discuss'. Informative, relevant, and relatable. Very insightful. Neil's work is sooooo... I'm very happy to have read Neil's work.
While I also like "Generations", is not a proven theory. It's not even a hypothesis, because it's not backed by scientific studies (empirical data). It may just be an interpretation of recent history that reflects our intuitive perception but which is completely wrong, like racism. Neil claims that it has already predicted things but all those things are also interpretations (e.g. behavior of grown-up millennials). OTOH it's easy to come up with plenty examples of how the 1-4 turnings are NOT actually playing out.
He makes a living mapping demographics for a hedgefund based off the work he did for this book. The success of his theory reflects in real world results. Don't get lost in your ossified mentality that you miss the forest from the trees.
The problem Howe is having right now is that within this framework (from a USA perspective) a decision has to be made of what to do with the current hero generation. Either you have to delete them - which has been done for a previous hero generation - or you have to redraw the line where the current profits (Boomers) birth years begin and end, the current nomads (Gen X) birth years begin and end, and so forth. The crisis era should have begun with the GFC, but the profits (Boomers) hung around longer in their midlife leadership positions than they should have and they decided to kick the can down the road on that crisis. It is an inconclusive event because of it, and that is typical of an unraveling era event. Its when you can't kick the can down the road that you have a bona fide crisis event, and that first one of those for this cycle is the pandemic lockdown. Supposing we say the GFC marked the end of the unraveling and the beginning of the crisis era, which is not supported by the evidence, then the starting birth year of the current hero generation is 1988 at the earliest and ending in 2003. Artists birth years from 2004 to until five years prior to the end of the crisis era whenever that is. The current birth year estimations are problematic. Hero's are supposed to be born/children during the unraveling and. more importantly, become young adults during the crisis. Reagan towards the end of his presidency in office may have marked the end awakening, but the unraveling did not actually start until the early-mid 90's. S+L debacle, Gulf War, The Fleecing of America, death of the pensions, death of the unions, repealing of apartheid, collapse of the USSR, OK City bombing, Waco Siege, OJ acquitted, Diana dies, and so on. Early-mid 2000's events such as the Dot-com bust, 9/11, War on Terror, Enron/Worldcom scandals, Anthrax, and numerous bombings around the world, were all unraveling events. The GFC was also an unraveling event. Nothing about the 2010's would indicate that we were in the crisis era. If anything, it was quite the opposite; a recovery/rebuild era that was relatively quiet. If the pandemic would have never happened, the current hero's (Millennials) would be deleted entirely and just absorbed into the current nomad or artists. It did happen, but how did the Millennials as young adults contribute to the resolution of this crisis event? They didn't. 100% non-factor.
Millennial and Z generation are worthless. If you wear a face diaper, you are definitely not part of the solution, but the problem. But I've been living in blue areas for the last 6 years, and arguably more because I've been in the cities even longer, but with greater dilution so it wasn't as apparent. However, looking back now I have discovered that I dated and was even engaged to democrats. Most of my old buddies from college are democrats. I'm non political, but I get along much greater with the right. I hired for our business in the liberal town, and the employees were worthless.
Millennials produced the group of non-compliance during Covid . They possess a perspective of the world pre mainstream internet connectivity but are also proficient in using the web. They really may have saved us
I've started several of these and whether poor sound quality or whatever, never got past 10 minutes. Blockworks Macro usually has good production quality so giving this a try out on a walk.
@@thesolitaryadventurer That's the first or second one I looked at. There was another one where the introductory piece wasn't the best. I think that he's done a number of these now and has honed what he wants to say. I'm 8 minutes into this one and the idea of the vertical line is illustrative. I basically listen to segments while out walking or running and this interview seems like it will be a good one. I might listen to it a second time.
Young people want equity, not equality. Big difference. And it won't lead to progress if they get their way. There's this naive idea things always get better. It's like you literally don't understand what archeology is.
'One party rule is why things run so well.' Really!? When was the last time you were in California? Creative tension is essential to avoiding excesses and the tyranny of a majority
That is true, jfk used to make his kids debate every night at the table. But, one party provides “safety”. You have to understand how the communist thinks, they will always support the government until it’s their turn to die.
“It’ll never happen to me”. It’s been a slow erosion of values and legislation over time, and when the time is right the communist will sneak into power the same way they have in all mankind’s history.
When the stakes are as large as they are, you’d rather be 30 years early than 1 day late. My grandfather has known since about 1990 as well, and preparing me since I can remember. He’s an American hero as far as I am concerned, I just hope he doesn’t have to prove it to the world. And don’t fool yourself, his old as still will too.
@@1maxusa nothing here to sell other than the stupid book. Gold, silver, guns, ammo, food and water. Unless he’s got a stake in any of those he’s not making SHIT 😂
@26:26, what Boomers were railing about was being a cog in a machine. Cookie-cutter houses and 9 - 5 jobs and meatloaf on Tuesdays, buy a buick, etc. We weren't against the middle-class, per se. Our lot in life was pre-determined, almost pre-destined, and we wanted to change that up, a bit. ;)
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Maria Reyes.
I invest with Maria Reyes too, she charges a 20%commission on profit made after every trading session which is fair compare to the effort she put in to make huge profits.
As a first time investor I started trading with her, with just a thousand bucks. my portfolio is worth much more that now within just weeks of trading with her.
I dunno, this whole trying to fit folks into “generations’ is kind of silly. A person born in 1979 (Xer) isn’t all that different than someone born in 1981 (Millenial). In reality, we live in a continuum of changing changing tastes and preferences over time.
Generations are about a predominant mindset within a rough age cohort. So you can expect some overlap and bleed. I have seen some Xers who are more Millennial than Millennials etc.
@@Nylonnerveslate millennials and early Z are the strong men. The late z and whoever comes next will be the good times, lucky them. It’s ok. I can accept my duty in history 🗽
I think a lot of people forget how long ago 1984 was. I was born in 1985 and am a millennial. I grew up before the internet and have been a part of its culture since it became common for public use. I grew up spending my summers helping in grandma’s garden and doing whatever yard work for pawpaw because he ALWAYS paid me 2$ and that was enough to buy a transformer at Roses. We spent our weekends in the woods building forts around creeks and catching crawdads. Do not discount us older millennials. We grew up at a time when it was still praised to be patriotic.
This guy basically says we need war or did in other videos. One thing he forgets is the U.S. has been at constant war basically since WW2. The series band of brothers in ww2 paratroopers showed some truth. A guy murdered a dozen prisoners for fun or pay back for his brother dying. I google war crimes and it’s amazing. Like a hundred Americans were hung and put into a secret cemetery in europe. You don’t learn in high school How the French rapped as many women as the soviets raped. It’s horrendous to Say ya millions of women getting raped is just a small Price to pay tk advance our society forward. If anything it’s more like the book war is a racket. Ya society is advanced forward as societal wide Theft happens and is given to the rich. It’s like ya today a poor person can get medical Attention that a billionaire could not have had a century ago. Society has gone forward in some Ways but suicide and lower standard of living in other areas like school shootings from mentally deranged people happen today but decades ago you’d shoot guns for PE. Like this guy also mentions how society today is more free and independent. I’ve thought about that and maybe for markets, but not overall. For instance, decades ago you could order a gun through a mail Catalog and shoot guns for PE at school. Today you’d go to jail if you brought a gun to school. Culturally you can’t say we’re freer. Like the cop over the Las Vegas casino shootings magically is the cop over the maaui fire and mass death there. That’s one heck of a coincidence when thjnking about gun violence and cops.
Who cares what’s going to happen! Nobody has control of anything and when it happens it happens! One thing that’s for sure our generation has never had to sacrifice anything for any cause!
I agree with nearly all of this. Just my two cents, I think in the past the cycle took longer, maybe much longer. Great events like the invention of the radio accelerated change and shortened the cycle. The same thing happened when Gutenberg invented the printing press (with moveable type) around 1450 but change was much slower then. Few people could afford a book, they were valuable. My point, is that this cycle may play out much faster because of many things and it's happening MUCH faster. All the progress, in AI, Quantum computing, life sciences (DNA, mRNA manipulation, etc.). So many things going on. We are indeed approaching the "Singularity"...... Our Scientific knowledge, thus our Technological capabilities, are making huge leaps forward, yet humanity's evolution is at a slow walk. Our ability to destroy ourselves at the push of a doomsday button or biological warfare. With all the hateful things going on in the world, it's scary.
I see it flip flopping between two kinds of people. Those people who do things in ‘group think’ and they are very liberal minded and irresponsible and those people who are individualized doing things on their own and more conservative, independent and responsible.
Yall are not really considering the demographic makeup of society following a period of war. You do realize that after a combat war, a lot of men die, and the ratio of males to females in a society changes. Fewer men who feel purposeless in life will bring periods of prosperity. When men feel like they have no purpose, they create problems so they can feel powerful by solving them. This results in fewer men. I think you are missing a huge amount of nuance regarding why this is happening, and it makes sense that you would miss it because most men don't consider that patriarchy exists and it actively harms them.
Really like Neil's thoughts and this reading of things has made it much clearer to me now, just started the most recent book and I find it all fascinating, great interview, cheers.
Boomers were not mostly hippies or counter culture as a whole, most were largely conformist. This is a common misperception. Hippies were a very small minority located on the west coast. Reminder that Richard Nixon won 52 percent of "under 30" voters in the 1972 U.S. presidential election.
yeah, exactly. he picks and chooses... he wants Boomers so badly to be 'prophets' and for collectivism to gain popularity.
Yes but hippies were perhaps the archetype, even though a minority. Like the alphabet crowd is the archetype, and also a minority, of the gen z.
And most of those hippies were in colleges like Stanford and Berkeley and then went on to become woke academics later and placed themselves in positions of authority and influence. The ones who were voting for Nixon at the time were vast bulks of blue collar workers with families to feed, thus no real future influence or authority to change policy.
I'm pretty sure the hippy movement was a psyop started by federal agents to discredit in the eyes of the public those that opposed Vietnam. The first people to protest the war were clean cut well respected men of the church
@@HansenFT - then you're saying that perception trumps reality. if that's your conclusion, then what matters is whatever Neil Howe or some other institution pontificates.
i have to say Neil Howe is the first gentlemen who has taught me this much in such a short time. This guys incredible, simply incredible.
Agreed. My mindset never really grasped cycles and now that's my view on everything. Truly I think this is a supercycle: finance, generation, solar weather periods
But also bad men & good men. are you referring to politicians? I think the turnings are not defined by the incumbent politician but the central banking system…no?
@@simonfowler698 its defined by the economy which is defined by the energy supply.
1:01: 📚 Neil Howe and Bill Strauss developed the theory of generational change and wrote a history of America as a sequence of generational biographies.
5:40: 📚 The speaker discusses the patterns of generational cycles in American history and how they correspond to social moods and the state of institutions.
11:55: 🔄 The speaker discusses generational dynamics and the cyclical nature of history.
17:40: 📊 The cycle of realigning elections in America occurs during periods of crises or awakenings, leading to a redefinition of political parties.
23:55: 📚 In the search for community and to escape loneliness and isolation, Millennials gravitate towards social media platforms and value fitting in with the middle class, which is the opposite of what Boomers desired.
30:04: 🇺🇸 The US experienced a shift from internal conflict to a sense of national urgency during the late 1930s and early 1940s, leading to a reconstruction of its civic institutions.
35:21: 🌍 The current conflict between the United States and China can be compared to the internal and external conflicts during the American Revolution.
40:59: ✨ The fourth turning is a period of radical transformation that is necessary for societies to rejuvenate and ensure social equality.
46:28: 📚 Neil's book, which has been on the New York Times bestseller list for three weeks, explores the concept of generational turnings and the role of conflict in shaping society.
Recap by Tammy AI
There's a Faustian beauty to this show. Mike and Neil look so alike it almost looks like someone sharing wisdom with their past self.
The ultimate unanswerable question "Why do we get old so quickly and smart so slowly"?
Because smartness was mainly evolved for war.
It's setup like this somewhat . The information we receive throughout life is flawed or biased . To truely get accurate data is the zen of decision making ..
Rockefeller medicine & education.
It is answerable. Unlearn everything. Old and young are not opposites. Neither are hot and cold. And so on with all things we say have polarity.
@@AtomkeySinclair Quite edgy.
As generation X'er, I have thought about growing up without all the freedom I had. And to honest, I would not change shit. I loved the freedom. It was hard, but I am a better person for it.
I doubt you could ever choose the opposite of what you knew. How could you? It's impossible to know how it would have been and how you would have adapted.
Each generation becomes what each generation gets. That's his point.
@@thesolitaryadventurer But acceptance of the situation feels good.
@@lenr7068 yes
@@rockycodyjesse too bad that their numbers are, when compared to the Boomers, so reduced in number, that they'll be forced to make some truly BRUTAL decisions once the Most Selfish Generation in history dumps all their economic debt and shenanigans onto Gen X's laps! lol.
The second half of this decade will be The Trial of Fire for Gen X, so I do hope that everyone else in that generation had fun when younger, too! Because that Bottomless Punchbowl that's always been there at the big party? It ain't gonna be there for much longer...
I wouldn’t change anything, either. There are such things as acceptable losses along the way.
Great interview, 71 and apt is commendable. Challenging times might be closer than we think. The gains have largely been powered by the AI boom in tech that has led to an unstable situation
The delayed impact of the global interest rate spikes, steady erosion of consumer savings and post-COVID pent-up demand, and deeply troubling global geopolitical context will result in market declines and re-emergence of market volatility
@@marcoerrett I agree. High-yield dividend stocks come immediately to mind as they offer steady passive income streams at inflation-beating levels, for a certain return should these crazy markets turn south.
@@PurvisTwiggs On the contrary those high yields don’t mean the equivalent amount in dollars will be disbursed, I will advice seeking counsel from a local broker, I myself work with a fiduciary in New York although I am in South Dakota.
@@irenatrulove How can one get a fiduciary to work for them? has working with one helped you?
I have turned over more than half mil working with Loren on a wide array of options and finally sticking to a few that have been favorable in the past 2 years. I began working with her in October 22 after the Fed lended 300b usd for stimulus to stem crisis, I knew I needed help. What makes folks think I won’t further draw from my 401k?
Thank you for conducting this interview. I am 57 ...too young to be a boomer and almost too old to be a GenXer. My siblings are late boomers, and my parents were technically early boomers but acted very much like the Silent Generation. So I have always felt out of sync with these generational cycles. Therefore I really appreciate Neil's "turnings" theory... I can really relate to my own life's timeline within this discussion of turnings. I struggle with the current political uncertainty and unrest we are experiencing, but Neil's theory offers light at the end of the tunnel,... even though we probably have a pretty scary tunnel ahead until we get there.
21:54 Young Man, you know nothing of 'your eastern counterparts' and you're only an American in name... ruclips.net/video/-9_TjaoYkqk/видео.html
Just started listening, but based on the cyclical nature of things, things will get a lot worse. And the question is, are you preparing? And how? For me, it's about being self reliant on your own property outside the city, and not close to any big metropolis. After the next even, and there will be one, things will get that much worse. More people will lose their home, more crime will happnen, and they will then use this make more draconian laws. I'm of the opinion that these cycles are are manufactured by the elite to shape and guide humanity. And their goal is to have America changed by 2030.
Feeling left out is definitely part of the Gen Xers I'm almost 54 and feel that way. We'll rise up to save the day
Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times. - Michael Hopf
...in a nutshell
Modern times create onlyfans girls and women who have no class then?
Red Scare grills love their Hopf quote.
🤮🤮🤮
plato and aristotle figured this out over 2000 years ago
What if week men rather live in their own world and don't care if society collapses?
Michael is so wonderfully gracious and thoughtful
As a classic Gen Xer, I do fit the Nomad type, I did grow up with less supervision and more resourcefulness and more individualism. That's morphed into independence and skepticism of our institutions. I grew up much differently than the millennial did. I do think as Boomers age out and the crisis period is now beginning, Gen X and Millenials are in a position to navigate our world through it.
2 worthless generations IMO. I don't see them doing much of anything. Furthermore, if you watch the same topic on the whiteboard demonstration (The Fourth Turning) 10+ min., you will see that things are cyclical. We are in the destruction phase. Stopping what is coming is like trying to stop the winter from coming. You prepare for winter in the same manner you should for what's coming. And what's coming is all manufacture because they want us living ina digitial gulag. Notice, not ONE politician calls out the technocracy? Even as a KID in the 80s, I knew that these jokers were liars. Somehow, people keep voting for the lesser of 2 evils. I voted once, and that was for Ross Perot. Sending our jobs overseas not being a good idea? Wow, rocket soience. But yet, all these idiot adults voted for the other 2. At 19 I knew better.
Digressing back to the technocracy, it's all manufactured. People don't have ears to hear with. Klaus over at the WEF and his minion Yuval Noah Harari talk about this plan, as do many others. And they have their YGL's implementing it. Young Global Leaders, most people never heard of them. That Republican who sounds good (funny enough, sounds just like Obama with his speech patterns and inflection - clearly studied him, and why not? Obama was a good speaker), but he too is a YGL. He's that young Indian dude. Klaus has even stated, on record, that his YGL's have penetrated many government cabinets to implement their plan. So when people act as though what's happneing is organic, it's just nonsense and illustrates their profound lack of understanding. And if you tell them, they'll run to google or YT to find the truth which further illustrates how lost they are.
Unless you are growing food on your land that is out of the city, away from any big metropolis, and doing whatever you can to avoid the mayhem that is coming, then you are losing the sum game. Let the buffoons reap what they sew. At least the people on the Right know that the country is in freefall, the people on the Left are actively voting for it. Insane. Pick a highly conservative area, and move there. That's the first step in your survival. When I relocated, I looked at how people voted in the 2020 election and used that as a guide. Aside from thinking that Trumps going to save the day, their pretty good people. And they know what the hell a man is, or woman.
Late Gen x and early millennials are the worst demographic in America in my opinion. They are the greediest people I’ve ever met.
I’m early gen Z, for context. I’ll be 25 in a few months.
"Gen x; ...the throwaway generation.....the kids who.people took pills not to have.."
Man, that hit hard (b. 1967)
Such a good interview with intelligent and respectful observations. I'm a boomer and I have lots of millennial friends. I used to work in the educational field and now I'm in healthcare. I can totally relate with much of these opinions. I really appreciate this conversation. Let's hope Americans are around to see how things turn out in the early 2030s.
The reasons for the cycles Mr. Howe noticed is that there have been no 'real' changes in our social system since the beginning of recorded history; a bit of change in size, but not much more than that. The details are nice of course, thanks :)
It’s ALWAYS rich vs. poor in any generation. The rest is spectacle to hide that fact.
yep.
It's the ruling class vs the peasants
Lol yup
Abuse of power , often due to economics, but the issue is abuse of power and not just rich v poor.
Nonsense
I’m currently retired, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, I decided to stay on the sideline for awhile, now I’m worried with the numerous bank failures as of late, am I better off reinvesting my savings in the stock market or do I wait?
Given the prevailing market conditions and the potential risks associated with the current economy, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.
true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
I'm intrigued by your experience. Could you possibly recommend a trustworthy advisor you've consulted with?
It's best you do your due diligence, I have my portfolio overseen by NICOLE DESIREE SIMON‘’ and her qualifications speak for itself. Most likely, the internet is where to find basic info, she has a noticeable page for consulting.
T_Bills good.
Frodo: I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.
Gandalf: So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us.
In Howe's mind, the 3rd Turning has progressively been delayed through time. He originally envisioned it as beginning in the early 80's, then, by the time of The Fourth Turning came out, it was the mid 80's, and now it's the late 80's/early 90's. To be consistent (both to test the validity of the theory and to correctly intepret where this cycle is going), I think we need to stick with the early 80's (or even better, the late 70's). That's when the "Awakening" ended and the "Unraveling" began. In fact, everyone alive back then spontaneously knows this to be true. The Western world collectively felt a huge shift in epoch between, say, 1977 and 1983, the front and end of those years painting an entirely different picture.
For just a single sample, one can watch the movie "Forrest Gump" (1994), where, in the subtext, this shift in epoch unspoken, is yet taken entirely for granted.
Howe has made the mistake of trying to be too specific on future predictions based on these past patterns, and has overstated the significance of events, especially those that occurred during the 2000s. The Fourth Turning crisis has to be something that completely remakes society and completely reshapes our institutions. 9/11 didn't do it. The war on terror didn't do it. The 2008 financial crisis didn't do it. Donald Trump did, however. The legalization of same-sex marriage and the backlash against that did. The pandemic and the second worst economic crash in American history did.
I agree on the early 80s as the beginning of the unravelling and the first half of the 2010s as the end. I'd place the legalization of same-sex marriage was the beginning of the real crisis (for context, I support same-sex marriage, but in terms of our societal health, it's something we are having a difficult time digesting and was responsible for unleashing fascism). The climax kicked off in 2020 and the next few years will be perilous. We'll be headed into a new high in the early 2030s. I'm hoping for the optimistic outcome.
To me 1980 felt like a pivotal year. Things were clearly going to be different.
As usual, X straight up ignored. We have been in the 4th Turning since the 80s as you say to test the theory.
@@CryptoDiaries I know, the forgotten generation
@@Withnail1969 Yeah, 1980 is a good candidate year for the Third Turning. The Iron Lady was already at 10 Downing Street, and Ronald Reagan was elected president. Perhaps also 1979, or even earlier.
Really enjoyed this, I haven't heard the 4th turning framed this way with this simplicity as well. Good stuff
Brilliant talk. Dude you are doing amazing for 71!
This "Fourth Turning" grift is astrology for people with an interest in history. It is a textbook example of contorting observations to fit a predetermined conclusion.
Alaska Prepper keeps talking about the 4th Turning book so I wanted to investigate. Just got both books!
I hate to say it, but this makes so much sense in every aspect. How I miss the 80s when everything was becoming better all the time and the future looked so bright ahead. I don’t want to go through this crisis at all. But it looks like we have to. So buckle up ‘cause here we go 😢
Cry later, we’ve got work to do.
Maybe I’ll even share a tear with you; after we’re done.
So many good questions. So many looong answers that are very smart but don't go anywhere.
So, instead of evolving are we simply like a person trapped in tidal variances where he reacts and briefly escapes being trapped in the tide but he never truly learns and he ends up caught in the tidal churns all over again? As an 80 year old senior this is my new question because, given current trends I feel pretty hopeless. Look at permanent irrecoverable population decline possibly ending these repetitive cycles?
I don’t have firm opinions on long term cycles, why I accept something like this has a reality of individual and collective conscious. And as we move to global online reality, it makes sense patterns via social contagion explode, like gender ideology now. We now have institutional capture by post-reality ideas, everyone focusing on their pet ideologies, and reality grinds is all forwards on crises we can’t predict except that they are coming and more things will break and shock us. We are all sleep walking. We have too many expectations, too few adults doing adult things.
I’m happier at a “gods eye” view of neutral observer above the messiness of living life. I see what is needed at the living level (to avoid just being reactive) is conviction of what is worth defending and what can be surrendered. People who can do that are what generates a future with some consciousness. We must all soon be brave, day by day, close to home, where choices matter.
I coined the term "social gravity" to describe individuals slowly forming groups of like minded people.
Lol, no you didn't
And now, as a society that recognizes itself as an entity with its own life cycles, how do we use what we know to create this turning point? How does group consciousness create forward, together? Maybe we can avoid the crises and go straight to the awakening?
That would depend on the level of education said society has to be able to recognize the idea of a cyclical being and to act on it. Take for example, climate change.
Not a chance. That's like trying to stop the winter from coming. We are in the phase of destruction. It's coming. The question is, are you voting for change? Do you think that some asshat in political office is going to save the day? Or are you just on your knees and praying to God that he saves the world? None of that is going to happen. I think when a man is on a sinking boat, God wants him to jump off and try to save himself, first. Then divine intervention may or may not happen.
Buy land outside the city, being becoming self- reliant. That's the start of your solution.
God, self, community - that's the solution.
This is a topic that can't be discussed accurately and fully without talking about the Moral Majority and the long-term struggle between religious and secular governance. That is the theme that underpins the current crisis. The sooner we admit that as a society, the better chance we will have to get through it as a free democracy. People are too afraid to point out the elephant in the room.
So you admit that secular equals amoral.
The moral majority was neither moral or a majority. Moral doesn't mean whatever Jerry Falwell said it does. I'd argue that in the Trump era, it's the evangelical Christians that have lost morality. I know what you are thinking...the liberals support the disgusting abomination called sodomy and there's nothing more immoral than that. I'd remind you Hitler hated gay people and had them exterminated, but would you call him moral? There's more to morality than how strongly you hate gay people. Why should the religion of a minority get to impose it's will on all 300 million Americans?@@williamf3988
@@williamf3988 No, @bchristian85 didn't say that. I remember the "Moral Majority". They existed solely to move the Evangelical Christians into the Republican Party on the issues of "pro-life" in reality forced birtherism and "pro-family" in reality dedication to maintaining and restoring invidious discrimination against gay men and lesbians.
I’m really interested in this Fourth Turning concept. It seems to tie in with the current division and destruction in society everywhere!
The distinguishing characteristic of the "Fourth Turning" astrology is that it's *perpetually* being refitted so that it "seems to tie in with the current division and destruction in society". It's more a kind of millennarian cult than a serious perspective on history.
One thing I'd be interested to know is how strongly the general culture in the 1920s/30s romanticized the 1870s/80s. Were they are nostalgic for the 1870s/80s as people today are for the 1950s?
Thank you guys 😃👊
That is REALLY depressing to think that we can't really accomplish any great change without killing millions :(
SAVAGE! lol I'm not depressed about it. I was telling people about the towers falling back in the day and how it was manufactured. Did people listen? No. I told people about the cashless society 20 years ago. Did people listen? No. Now they are openly and have been for the last many years about the CBDC. People are so clueless and stupid that they don't even know what a CBDC stands for. How on earth will they have any clue about anything else? I told people a few years ago about the ending of modern agriculture. Did anyone listen? No. Now they are talking about getting people to eat insects and cows, chickens, and other source of meat causing "global warming". It's all a manufactured crisis. So, I'm not bothered by people reaping what they sew at all. Good riddance. They made the world worse for myself. And they continued doing so with the plandemic wearing their face diaper that can in NO WAY filter out a virus. WAY too small. Do these people listen? No. So...be gone. I'll be on my property saying F it. Let it all burn down.
The American Revolution as a Civil War is such a crazy concept to think about, but definitely was in ways.
This is an incredible book. Great interview!
Thanks!
I was listening to this guy the other day, hes got a good social sciences POV
I have long been a student of long cycles. George Modelski has a considerably more sophisticated theory, also relying on Kondratieff waves. My problem with Strauss and Howe is that, ironically given Howe’s title as demographer, his theory and the Crisis component in particular does not take into account the unprecedented demographic changes the world is facing. This is best seen in light of the idea that, for example, a foreign power exists that could play the role of the UK, the French (1770’s) or Germany/Japan (1940s) in this next turning. China will almost certainly be in a state of civilizational collapse by the early 2030s. Their demographic collapse-estimates are that they will lose ~1/2 their population by 2050-is imminent and China has a tendency to fly apart in difficult times. Short of a nuclear terror incident that would finally tip your country fully into a neofascist future led by Wall Street, Big Tech, the Surveillance State-imagine the kind of Patriot Act on steroids and abuse of the FISA system you’d get in that scenario-and the institutional elites that are all led by a single party, any 4th Turning Crisis will be internal and a period in which the genuinely democratic element of your republic is replaced by the softly despotic regime Tocqueville saw in America’s future. You are about to live through an unprecedented secular (vs cyclical) event that will swamp the effects of any cyclical change.
I think Strauss-Howe generational theory only focus on Anglo-America history. So, it may not suit to the history of other nations
Considering that the most visible tech bros are on the Republicans' side I can see which groups will be favored and which will be cancelled or erased.
Remember the Back to the Land Movement of the 60's, the boomers were looking to create communes/communal living and also joined spiritual ashrams. So that is an example that differs from that gen wanting to avoid groups. But the communes were not about suburbia, and were generally a gathering of the "me" generation, gatherings of individuals,. Rather than creating a mono culture where conformity was the norm, they wanted to do their own "thing" which ultimately led to the failing of such project I would surmise.
We must be in the cycle of corruption, wickedness, depravity, and decadence. Not going to turn out well.
Hmm I am torn between believing in my horoscope and the fourth turning.. both seem very convincing.. to be honest his generalisations about people seem crackpot to me, I don't recognise them at all in the people around me here in Europe.
Well to be fair, Europeans never recognize anything concerning in nature until it drops onto their heads like an atomic bomb. Remember how many years Europe stood by watching the massacre of Bosnians before...the Americans had to come in and clean up your mess for you? lol
I mean...over-reliance on Russia for most of one's natural resources, mass importation of non-assimilating non-European male migrants, relying on a "green" tech revolution which has so-far failed to cut even 3% of global carbon emissions, and shutting down nuclear power plants at a time of rising fuel prices...these are such problem-free, pie-in-the-sky ideas...what could possibly go wrong? lol. /s
It's very America-centric. The boomer experience in Europe would have been starkly different from an American experience during that time. Today, Europe and America are a lot more similar than they were back then.
I think some of Howe's specifics are off, but I do agree with his cycles. I don't think he places enough emphasis on the religious/secular tension and how strong of a part that plays in current politics.
Maybe because he is mainly talking about America?
Time is a convenient metaphor to encapsulate an architecture unseen by the naked eye. Kudos to authors recognizing a repeating pattern. But this fourth turning is squat squarely in the age of electronics, digitization and computerization emergent Ai. Why has transformation not compressed the space of turning presents an interesting side effect going forward. It begs whether technology, the purpose of it, advances society and furtherance of humanity on which the authors’ work is based
That was a great interview! I really enjoyed that. Very clever and well laid out.
The 4th Turning vs. Ray Dalio vs. Peter Turchin
How do these all fit together?
If we all had cheap housing how many problems would be fixed?
Brilliant interview!
Thank you so much!
Love this channel
He's very charming and smart- the problem is the policymakers aren't this smart
The point is that the flow of history supersedes the policy makers.
Very little science used here. Doesn't mean there isn't possibly some truth in these ideas its just that one should take these ideas as the anecdotes and emotion based opinions that they are and not make the mistake of seeing them as demonstably factual in any way. Still, conceptually quite interesting.
Pattern recognition is science/math
IQ is a measure of pattern recognition not even problem solving, it’s about impossible for a human to find a needle in a haystack, but with knowledge, and or practice we can do pretty remarkable things.
Hard times -> alcoholics
Alcoholics -> cocaine
Cocaine -> debt
Debt -> hard times
Goes back to Noah’s ark
Read 4th in 2011. Still valid and accurate.
Yes, things happen in cycles, and there is no linear progress. That's why life expectancy now is the same as it was 200 years ago.
I was curious to know how old he is? Looks amazing for 71!
VIVEK2024 ---------- TRUTH ----- GETTING ALL AMERICANS UNITING thru this 4th TURNING
Gold is the money for Kings and Queens. Silver is the money for ladies and gentlemen. Barter is the currency for the poor. Fiat money is the currency for slaves. Got Gold? Got Silver!?
I'm suprised you didnt mention AI, thats gonna be the most defining part in all future generational awakenings
Technocracy is the umbrella. AI just falls under the umbrella. Technocracy will allegedly take over politics and the court system. AI will compute your social credit score. No one is stopping what's coming. You're either going to capitulate, or you will be on your own land living outside the system and slowly be weeded out of it. There's no other 2 ways about it.
Great interview! Just subscribed.
And the astrology also matches all of this!
You probably won't see this,but I read that whenever Neptune is in Aries and Uranus is in Gemini,the US has a major war.This was the configuration during the Civil War,and is due again in 2026.We're in for a bumpy ride for sure.
@@debra1363 you are correct! If you would like more details ruclips.net/p/PLdN2ab1pjMv53luVH8mRc7g-EJQbqRBxF&si=LjkGDpA9vi2GRLgb
I have so many unanswered questions
Please make this a permanent or semi permanent segment. You and Neil work so well together. 'Boomer and millennial discuss'. Informative, relevant, and relatable. Very insightful. Neil's work is sooooo... I'm very happy to have read Neil's work.
While I also like "Generations", is not a proven theory. It's not even a hypothesis, because it's not backed by scientific studies (empirical data). It may just be an interpretation of recent history that reflects our intuitive perception but which is completely wrong, like racism. Neil claims that it has already predicted things but all those things are also interpretations (e.g. behavior of grown-up millennials). OTOH it's easy to come up with plenty examples of how the 1-4 turnings are NOT actually playing out.
He makes a living mapping demographics for a hedgefund based off the work he did for this book. The success of his theory reflects in real world results. Don't get lost in your ossified mentality that you miss the forest from the trees.
mike, i know you had a blast with this interview
This is all very interesting but I don't see any way to integrate this information into a positive action.
Why does society reconfigure from a crisis?
Problem - reaction - solution
The problem Howe is having right now is that within this framework (from a USA perspective) a decision has to be made of what to do with the current hero generation. Either you have to delete them - which has been done for a previous hero generation - or you have to redraw the line where the current profits (Boomers) birth years begin and end, the current nomads (Gen X) birth years begin and end, and so forth. The crisis era should have begun with the GFC, but the profits (Boomers) hung around longer in their midlife leadership positions than they should have and they decided to kick the can down the road on that crisis. It is an inconclusive event because of it, and that is typical of an unraveling era event. Its when you can't kick the can down the road that you have a bona fide crisis event, and that first one of those for this cycle is the pandemic lockdown.
Supposing we say the GFC marked the end of the unraveling and the beginning of the crisis era, which is not supported by the evidence, then the starting birth year of the current hero generation is 1988 at the earliest and ending in 2003. Artists birth years from 2004 to until five years prior to the end of the crisis era whenever that is. The current birth year estimations are problematic. Hero's are supposed to be born/children during the unraveling and. more importantly, become young adults during the crisis. Reagan towards the end of his presidency in office may have marked the end awakening, but the unraveling did not actually start until the early-mid 90's. S+L debacle, Gulf War, The Fleecing of America, death of the pensions, death of the unions, repealing of apartheid, collapse of the USSR, OK City bombing, Waco Siege, OJ acquitted, Diana dies, and so on. Early-mid 2000's events such as the Dot-com bust, 9/11, War on Terror, Enron/Worldcom scandals, Anthrax, and numerous bombings around the world, were all unraveling events. The GFC was also an unraveling event. Nothing about the 2010's would indicate that we were in the crisis era. If anything, it was quite the opposite; a recovery/rebuild era that was relatively quiet. If the pandemic would have never happened, the current hero's (Millennials) would be deleted entirely and just absorbed into the current nomad or artists. It did happen, but how did the Millennials as young adults contribute to the resolution of this crisis event? They didn't. 100% non-factor.
Wait for it...
Millennial and Z generation are worthless. If you wear a face diaper, you are definitely not part of the solution, but the problem. But I've been living in blue areas for the last 6 years, and arguably more because I've been in the cities even longer, but with greater dilution so it wasn't as apparent. However, looking back now I have discovered that I dated and was even engaged to democrats. Most of my old buddies from college are democrats. I'm non political, but I get along much greater with the right. I hired for our business in the liberal town, and the employees were worthless.
Millennials produced the group of non-compliance during Covid . They possess a perspective of the world pre mainstream internet connectivity but are also proficient in using the web. They really may have saved us
@@msims6054 not in my areas! Brainwashed liberal democrats. I'm apolitical so I have no dog in the race.
@Germanatolia probably because you're a manager, not a leader that you dont motivate others to excell.
YUUP. The final pieces to the babylon system being constructed
I've started several of these and whether poor sound quality or whatever, never got past 10 minutes. Blockworks Macro usually has good production quality so giving this a try out on a walk.
Audio quality for Neil Howe is the best I've heard of his interviews. His Wealthion interview was virtually unlistenable.
@@thesolitaryadventurer That's the first or second one I looked at. There was another one where the introductory piece wasn't the best. I think that he's done a number of these now and has honed what he wants to say. I'm 8 minutes into this one and the idea of the vertical line is illustrative. I basically listen to segments while out walking or running and this interview seems like it will be a good one. I might listen to it a second time.
Yes. Grats. The 4th turning is here. No shit. thanks for the obvious.
Young people want equity, not equality. Big difference. And it won't lead to progress if they get their way. There's this naive idea things always get better. It's like you literally don't understand what archeology is.
Equality = you have a fair chance if you put the work in.
Equity = I want to build a casino where everybody wins at everyones expense.
We want JUSTICE, how about that
@@HUeducator2011 Justice for what?
@@tastypymp1287 shouldn’t we all want justice as Americans? It’s literally in the preamble of my Constitution lol
@@HUeducator2011 You haven't answered the question.
'One party rule is why things run so well.' Really!? When was the last time you were in California? Creative tension is essential to avoiding excesses and the tyranny of a majority
That is true, jfk used to make his kids debate every night at the table. But, one party provides “safety”. You have to understand how the communist thinks, they will always support the government until it’s their turn to die.
“It’ll never happen to me”. It’s been a slow erosion of values and legislation over time, and when the time is right the communist will sneak into power the same way they have in all mankind’s history.
Serious question for the community. How long has this guy been calling for a fourth turning that never really comes?
1997
When the stakes are as large as they are, you’d rather be 30 years early than 1 day late. My grandfather has known since about 1990 as well, and preparing me since I can remember. He’s an American hero as far as I am concerned, I just hope he doesn’t have to prove it to the world. And don’t fool yourself, his old as still will too.
@@shanejones578 understood, just keep in mind that guys like this make a lot of money scaring people.
@@1maxusa nothing here to sell other than the stupid book. Gold, silver, guns, ammo, food and water. Unless he’s got a stake in any of those he’s not making SHIT 😂
@26:26, what Boomers were railing about was being a cog in a machine. Cookie-cutter houses and 9 - 5 jobs and meatloaf on Tuesdays, buy a buick, etc. We weren't against the middle-class, per se. Our lot in life was pre-determined, almost pre-destined, and we wanted to change that up, a bit. ;)
Excited to live in the age that might produce a synthesis from our dialectics
I love his work 8/24/23
So interesting!
Wow 😲🎉
Interesting. Thx
The different turning are about truths that rise to the surface
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Maria Reyes.
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divine central authority
It ends with a war like it always does
I dunno, this whole trying to fit folks into “generations’ is kind of silly. A person born in 1979 (Xer) isn’t all that different than someone born in 1981 (Millenial). In reality, we live in a continuum of changing changing tastes and preferences over time.
Yes! The generation cut-offs are arbitrary so the predictive power is dubious at best.
Generations are about a predominant mindset within a rough age cohort. So you can expect some overlap and bleed. I have seen some Xers who are more Millennial than Millennials etc.
@@Nylonnerveslate millennials and early Z are the strong men. The late z and whoever comes next will be the good times, lucky them. It’s ok. I can accept my duty in history 🗽
I think a lot of people forget how long ago 1984 was. I was born in 1985 and am a millennial. I grew up before the internet and have been a part of its culture since it became common for public use. I grew up spending my summers helping in grandma’s garden and doing whatever yard work for pawpaw because he ALWAYS paid me 2$ and that was enough to buy a transformer at Roses. We spent our weekends in the woods building forts around creeks and catching crawdads. Do not discount us older millennials. We grew up at a time when it was still praised to be patriotic.
"Bad times make for hard men. Hard men make for good times. Good men make for weak times. Weak times make for bad men." Completely butchered that lol
How does this philosophy match up to world or local economic phases?
It's a great book.
This guy basically says we need war or did in other videos. One thing he forgets is the U.S. has been at constant war basically since WW2.
The series band of brothers in ww2 paratroopers showed some truth. A guy murdered a dozen prisoners for fun or pay back for his brother dying.
I google war crimes and it’s amazing. Like a hundred Americans were hung and put into a secret cemetery in europe. You don’t learn in high school
How the French rapped as many women as the soviets raped. It’s horrendous to
Say ya millions of women getting raped is just a small
Price to pay tk advance our society forward.
If anything it’s more like the book war is a racket. Ya society is advanced forward as societal wide
Theft happens and is given to the rich. It’s like ya today a poor person can get medical
Attention that a billionaire could not have had a century ago. Society has gone forward in some
Ways but suicide and lower standard of living in other areas like school shootings from mentally deranged people happen today but decades ago you’d shoot guns for PE.
Like this guy also mentions how society today is more free and independent. I’ve thought about that and maybe for markets, but not overall. For instance, decades ago you could order a gun through a mail
Catalog and shoot guns for PE at school. Today you’d go to jail if you brought a gun to school. Culturally you can’t say we’re freer.
Like the cop over the Las Vegas casino shootings magically is the cop over the maaui fire and mass death there. That’s one heck of a coincidence when thjnking about gun violence and cops.
Some are clueless of the ongoing Civil War 3
Who cares what’s going to happen! Nobody has control of anything and when it happens it happens! One thing that’s for sure our generation has never had to sacrifice anything for any cause!
I agree with nearly all of this. Just my two cents, I think in the past the cycle took longer, maybe much longer. Great events like the invention of the radio accelerated change and shortened the cycle. The same thing happened when Gutenberg invented the printing press (with moveable type) around 1450 but change was much slower then. Few people could afford a book, they were valuable.
My point, is that this cycle may play out much faster because of many things and it's happening MUCH faster. All the progress, in AI, Quantum computing, life sciences (DNA, mRNA manipulation, etc.). So many things going on. We are indeed approaching the "Singularity"......
Our Scientific knowledge, thus our Technological capabilities, are making huge leaps forward, yet humanity's evolution is at a slow walk.
Our ability to destroy ourselves at the push of a doomsday button or biological warfare. With all the hateful things going on in the world, it's scary.
And SOON, AI will acquire the ability to enhance itself. Changes are coming fast. Hope we can keep up......
I see it flip flopping between two kinds of people. Those people who do things in ‘group think’ and they are very liberal minded and irresponsible and those people who are individualized doing things on their own and more conservative, independent and responsible.
Yall are not really considering the demographic makeup of society following a period of war. You do realize that after a combat war, a lot of men die, and the ratio of males to females in a society changes. Fewer men who feel purposeless in life will bring periods of prosperity. When men feel like they have no purpose, they create problems so they can feel powerful by solving them. This results in fewer men. I think you are missing a huge amount of nuance regarding why this is happening, and it makes sense that you would miss it because most men don't consider that patriarchy exists and it actively harms them.
Congrats on being a girl 🎉
Interesting
La Reconquista para La Raza! - The Real Fourth Turning
So Harry Seldon was right? We CAN predict OVER time what a LARGE ENOUGH group of people will do😮😮😮
35:00 good pushback here
This was awesome, need to rewatch.
Xers: ‘the kids people took pills not to have.’
Nice.
I won’t express my feelings about that statement publicly.
Community--Cheers Where everybody knows your name! late 1800's.
Refrain from crossing your arms while talking while recording. 😮
Really like Neil's thoughts and this reading of things has made it much clearer to me now, just started the most recent book and I find it all fascinating, great interview, cheers.