I can't see who Bike Matrix is for. Riders won't pay for it. Shops don't need it. Small manufacturers of individual components want to be compatible, but don't want to be seen as interchangeable. It takes a microscope (or a marketing team) to differentiate stems, bars, wheels, and so on. Large manufacturers (S&S) don't want their groups split apart. SRAM wants to sell you the Transmission system, not a cassette you'll bodge together with a Shimano derailleur. Anyone in this business also knows that what's "compatible" on a spreadsheet may not be in the flesh, never mind optimal. That's what shops are for: help pick the right thing and assemble it correctly.
Here is a TOP SECRET! The big brands will release a new model that is 6 watts faster, 30 grams lighter, boring paint, wide handle bars, longs stems,long cranks and narrow seats (that you can change at a huge cost) and a size range that doesn’t fit short people. But there is even more. It will be twice the price from ten years ago, rim and tires will be ridiculously wide, disc brakes will still squeal and last but not least it will be heavier than your bike from 10 years ago especially when you add your $1000 computer brick on the front so you can ride around looking at your strava results on the screen. Happy new year!
Easy. Buy framesets. Build it yourself or get it built at a trusted bike shop. Build it hundreds of grams lighter than stock with custom parts. Save thousands of dollars while doing that.
@ possible but difficult. Add the price of a new SL8 frame set for example, add a reputable groupo, wheels, bar/stem, tires and saddle and I dare say it would work out more expensive than the stock item. Big brands have gone custom paint, hopefully the next progression is part selection prior to order. Things like bar, stem, saddle and crank length should be provided at customers request. A good (very good) bike store may swap these items out for you, at least they use to in the past. But up selling is now all part of the sales game.
I sincerely marvel at the fact that you are a practical man, an active rider, a businessman, and that you can engage with all of this overriding futurism, yet remain calm and pragmatic about the uncertainty of it all. I think that your engagement with communicating all of this to us, might be the secret adjunct to your stability. Thank you, and happy new year, from an older and a lesser mortal, who shares some of your abilities, but who definitely wouldn’t cope with your workload and position.
Bike Matrix sounds kinda like PC Part Picker that allows you to build your own computer from scratch. And it's been here for a while now and it works pretty much perfectly. But then again, computer part standardization is LIGHT YEARS ahead of ANYTHING related to the bike industry. I have a tech background and when I really got into bikes, I thought the world of bike industry standards was absolutely insane. Well, I still do. Not sure if Bike Matrix can pull their thing off, but I really hope so. It's tools like that, that allow newcomers get into the hobby WAY more easily.
I'm glad you said something about a bike fit as an insider. I really think it's turned into a really expensive way to get your saddle height adjusted. A high number of people just need to be within a window and there are tons of resources to aid that, and part 2, you can feel it yourself. I'm not anti bike fit, but the 300 plus dollar Wizz bang option for a lot of people seems crazy.
bike fitting, the cycling industry's equivilant of "trust me bro this is how it's supposed to be".... whn you ask 5 "bike fitters" the exact same questions 5 times over and they all give you a completely different answer. after a while you just start to think its a whole lot of bullshit based around one very core idea.
@@Mapdec When I had my initial fit the first hour or so of it wasn't on a bike, but on a table to test and check my body. As the fitter explained it to me: we can measure everything and fit you on defaults, but if something in your body isn't symmetrical or it doesn't feel good, we aren't changing it. It worked for me and the problems I had never returned, but it also made me very hesitant to visit a fitter that puts you on a bike to watch you pedal.
@ wow. An how ROM test is a bit excessive, but it is somewhat important. I tend to assume most people are ‘normal’ and then go back to ROM tests if I see or hear something that casts doubt. I charge by the hour, rather than by fit. So sometimes I have a happy customer in 30mins and sometimes a fit can take 2-3 hours. Usually with complicated fits they need a professional above a bike fitter and we refer to physios, osteopaths, podiatrists etc.
@@Mapdec bike fits are now redundant as you can change very little on a modern human powered appliance these days. It might find the ideal position for a 50 year old that can afford a bike, but the bikes are manufactured for 20 year old racers. So now instead of tailoring the bike to the rider we know tailor the rider to the bike. I see a lot of Aero bike riders with neck problems caused by their bikes.
Your comments on bike fitting make sense. I found an independent guy here in Kingston when I needed bike fits two years ago and he enabled me to adjust my existing cycle relatively cheaply without pushing products. But you see some providers whose business seems to revolve around selling upmarket bikes and Lake shoes, at full price! Similar to when a doctor recommends a medicine there is a clear moral hazard that must influence recommendations. Many You Tube channels that ‘review’ products run the same risk, of course. I like this channel because the analysis is great and you are running a business, which you are 100% transparent about too!
"My responses are limited, you must ask the right questions." - Dr. Alfred Lanning, iRobot(2004). I find working with AI means asking the right questions.
As a former bike fitter I find the thought of AI bike fitting interesting but also worrying at the same time. I also agree about smoke and mirrors lol. Interesting because it could help get most people most of the time into a solid position which means they can enjoy riding their bike without pain. However, something I found with systems like Retul is that it’s easy to please the system (get the right numbers) but the system can’t tell whether you’re comfortable or if it’s causing you pain because of another issue. I think you will always need a GOOD experienced human to interprate the data and listen to the rider.
I wouldn't be surprised if there will be more aluminum frame bikes getting close to the 6.8kg mark off the shelf. There seems to be a growing choice of very weightweenie parts to make that easier and easier to accomplish. The new choices might be carbon for aero and aluminum for affordable and lightweight climbing maybe?
Thank you for addressing the western pricing and the eastern potential disruption. I believe this is the biggest and most important challenge of the biking industry and that includes the consumer behavior aswell.
Just a little correction regarding how affiliate links work nowadays: "If we put a link down in our description saying "click this link, buy now" then essentially we get a cut of that sale". Should actually be: "If we put a link down in our description saying "click this link, buy now" Honey will steal our cut of that sale". Happy new year!
@@davidpalk5010 It's just incredible how they can ship almost anything for free, when it cost sometimes more than the part itself to ship in Europe or even in your home country...
@@DR_1_1 Shipping is subsidised by Chinese Govt. to aid export business and gain dollars. China now owns a massive amount of US (and UK) national debt, and that gives it great global power. We are now seeing Chinese car brands, phone brands, bike brands, etc. VW, Ford and Stellantis are in crisis. China is buying foreign ports to gain control of supply routes. Your taxes go to pay interest to China which they use to invest in growth and development, whilst the local public services which you think you are funding are being cut back to nothing. Museums, libraries, road repairs - forget all that because the money to pay for it is owed to China instead, so that they can build more universities, power stations, factories and ports. Every purchase of Chinese goods is another tiny tack in the coffin, but it's way too late for a boycott. It would seem as if economic communism (state control of currency and finance) has beaten western free-market capitalism. You might have noticed that real economic decline in "the west" has already begun, and nobody is predicting an upturn. So, the cost of their shipping is not incredible at all. It's simply part of a well orchestrated plan to become the globally dominant economy and take down the US empire, of which the UK is obviously a member. Enjoy the slide!
I see people clearing their garages and trying to sell the bikes they bought during the COVID peak. These bikes are now beyond what the owners are prepared to repair. These bikes are approaching 5 years and many have fallen in to dis repair due to lack of use. 2 tubelsss tyres, an integrated headset, a new chain and a bottom bracket will beyond what the owner will want to spend. If you were 50 in 2020 and haven’t cycled since COVID your bike will be an item to sell this year. The industry has run out of customers that where born in the 1970s and this age group has been milked for every penny and grown up with BMX, mountain bikes , xc mountain bikes , downhill mountain bikes, road bikes, aero road and gravel. , Brands will have to finfmd new customers and make cycling cool
Born in the mid 60s....No one has ever milked me...Not everyone is a fool to be parted readily from their money for trinkets. The contemporary bike scene is bloody awful.
@ if you were born in the mid 60s you would have been of to work when the BMX boom hit the uk shores and the bicycle industry has been marketing the money out of our pockets ever since. BMX sales dried up they invented freestyle we bought it and we where buying a genre or iteration ever since. Every 3 years a new shiny thing for the 1970s generation to buy . BMX 1979 1982 BMC freestyle 1982 1986 Mountain bikes 1986 1989 Front suspension 1989 to 1992 Full suspension 1992 to 1995 Down hill 1995 to 1999 North shore Then the marketing boys moved in to road bikes 1990 to 1993aluminium road bikes sti shifters 1994 to 2000 the groupset wars 2x7 to 2x9 2000 to 2004 carbon fibre monocoque bikes 2004 the rise of the endurance bike 2007 Aero starts and electronic group sets 2012 optimised Aero rim brake bikes 2014 hydraulic discs 2017 aero disc bikes 2020 aero climbing bikes 2022 fat tyre road bikes 2024 aero is back You can play around with the dates but every 3 years regular as clockwork the marketing departments feed us a new must have. If you watch from the outside as I have since 2012 you can see the pattern and then I can think back to my early 20s riding Audax’s on the latest trek and old boys on steel bikes handing it to me after 3 punishing hours. Only for another 2 to 3 hours of suffering.
If the Eastern brands can supply better finished frames than some of the high end Western frames you have to retro repair, they could do well. The Eastern brands seem to be alot more customer focused. Often you fix new frames, from Western brands, like bottom bracket facing/reaming, brake mounts etc, I recall the Cannondale Evo with the eggshell thin carbon around the headset & the replacement being no better.... Ai bike fitting sounds interesting, especially if it has no selling agenda. Matrix, sounds like a great idea, maybe a newer version of what Sheldon Brown was doing with his website. Happy New Year to you and your staff, looking forward to more great RUclips content👍
I do hope prices drop, im looking at new bikes, its either buy the cheapest model with 105, strip it, sell the parts and buy what i want at a huge saving, example 2.5k for a 105 bike with basic wheels or 6k + for ultegra di2 with average wheels, even if you keep the parts it leaves £3500 to buy a groupset and fantastic wheels. If Cube can do better prices then they all can
The bike matrix thing seems really interesting, I am gonna go check it out. I have an old 2005 Scott mountain bike, and I was in the middle of restoring it with an eye to converting it to a single speed oversized BMX bike. Locating compatible parts is a nightmare. I didn’t realise the MTB standards are all crazy. It’s got a 135mm rear axle width which instantly disqualifies heaps of newer components, something I didn’t realise until researching it. I came from MTB to road (I got to MTB from BMX!) but I’ve not kept up with the MTB tech. I probably should have realised this as I’ve been hearing in road circles about how all the new MTB tech leaks over eventually (tubeless, 1x, etc), I just didn’t think of the impact of trying to get compatible parts for a 20 year old bike 😮 I have to say as a working IT professional that I’m pretty suspicious of many of the claims of AI. It’s just linear algebra, trying to pull a vector around a multi-dimensional matrix until it matches what’s in its model. Its great for some things, maybe bike fitting is one of those things, but for many other things it cannot replace a human’s capacity for creative thinking. Plus you have to deal with its occasional capacity to hallucinate data out of thin air (the day one tells someone to buy an expensive and incompatible part for their bike, for example). I bet it would struggle with someone with a large asymmetry in their leg length, extremely tall or short people, and so on. Those sorts of edge cases where the model will not have a lot of data in it. I dunno, I got a bike fit the old school way from Neil Stanbury, and it served me very well! Sometimes human relationships can outmatch any sort of technology. I hope you’re right about the Chinese / Western brands thing. We need to see what happens with the new US adminstration and what they do to the trading relationship with China. It might mean that everyone bar the USA manages to get better access to the Chinese parts if the Yanks manage to tariff their way to oblivion. On GCN this week they mentioned that some of the big Western brands at the top end are finding increased sales in mainland China, which I thought was an interesting development if it bears out. Anyway the best thing of 2024 was finding this channel, so cheers and happy new year!
Great comment. Yes the rise of the Chinese middle class has created demand for exotic western brands. Look have this huge fancy showroom somewhere in Asia. I keep seeing it pop up on LinkedIn.
So much of the cycling industry reminds me of the Emperor's New Clothes. Maybe 2025 will be when riders realise they can squeeze a few extra watts by dropping a few KGs rather than buy Ceramic Speed Jockey Wheels for £500!
You assume most riders cares about physical fitness or watts lol. The dominant cycling community supporting the industry sees cycling as a hobby with fun toys and bike gizmos. Caring about fitness and watts over enjoying cycling as a hobby with fun toys sounds like a very boring approach to this hobby lol
Western brands are definitely going to have to step up their value proposition. I feel like companies like Time have had a resurgence because they offer something Specialized don't. As Asian brands move into the TdF and gravel sponsorships, the current market hold brands like Specialize have will slip unless they display something Asia isn't offering. I don't think they need to drop their prices, but a 12-15K bike should be custom fitted or offer something more than just being a bit more stiff or lightweight.
As you were talking about Bike Matrix, I was thinking about Gemini and you mentioned that too! As someone who wrenches on my own bikes for fun - Gemini has been invaluable in terms of getting information on sizes, torque specs, number of spacers, widths etc. Its not 100% accurate, but its usually good enough to get started on the right path.
I would love to see more universal standards like the udh. On a completely unrelated note, I would like to point out a very nice way to do sponsored videos, that I have seen from a tech channel on RUclips. Their name is GamersNexus and they do incredible work and have a great reputation. What they do, is they let a product sponsor the video and not a manufacturer. This way they can ensure their viewers, if they want to buy those products, actually get something good. I find this an incredibly nice balance between sponsored content and respect for the viewers.
There's a potentially useful data loop to close from the AI/online bike fitting. I think it might highlight a wider range of rider sizes and riding positions. I'm particularly thinking of shorter riders, more unusual leg:torso ratios, more upright positions. If this was collected in the right way, smart companies might actually start making bikes better suited for real people rather than young pro athletes. Linked to that is another trend I see developing where bikes become more versatile or configurable. I think riders want to be less categorised as "road", "gravel", "mountain" or whatever and we might see more bikes usable for general recreational riding on a variety of surfaces. Certainly the mid-tier "gravel" bikes seem to be moving in that direction.
I'd love AI be able to identify an exact year for a bike. I do reasonably well identifying within a couple of years as I'm 50 and been doing it since I was a teenager. My new colleague who is 24 and been in the industry 6 months finds it much harder.
People seem to think that enjoying (and chasing) cycling trends while pursuing performance are antithetical to each other. It doesn’t have to be that way. There is literally nothing stopping you from following a training routine and getting up at 4am daily for your workouts, cross train in the gym, while also spending frequently for new bike and gizmos. Granted, your finances may be a limiting factor. But let’s be real; cycling is a hobby, and if your finances is limited, what are you doing cycling instead of working more then? I grew up without sports because my family was too poor to support one, so whats working with just, not cycling if you’re too poor to do that?
Western brands are priced ridiculously high and in a lot of cases unobtainable. I’d go as far as saying not worth the asking price. There needs to be a reality check and I’m glad Chinese brands are competitive which benefits the consumer.
The biggest challenge for the chinese cheapo brands is indeed accountability: Who can be hanged in the town yard if that carbon frame cracks at 20mph? With established western brands, there are offices and legal entities in the local countries, but these shadows hiding behind AliExpress are untouchable. I would never buy there.
Do parts really matter? There's lots of alternatives, adaptors and such. I've just rebuilt a derelict 2014 Stumpjumper EVO, and almost all the parts I replaced were non standard and very good quality Chinese manufactured (like most parts BTW). What particularly impressed me was the IIIPro IV4R 4-piston brakes I fitted. I wish I'd known about them earlier. Even delivery from China was faster than ordering any big brand stuff through local bike shops then waiting for them to order from distributor (if the part was even available).
oh god yes! its parts like derailleur hangers, cable guides, headset top caps, seat post clamps, all these are so integrated these days they are special to just one frame. With wheels it's parts like axles, freehubs, freehub spacers, pawls. Sure Covid is still bringing us a global shortage, but most China direct brands just see stuff as disposable and never even make spares.
Great video. I don’t think Ai will replace us, it’s a tool like anything else. Try it for pt programming, it could write a programme for you but you’d still need to adapt it for each client and deliver the training. It removes a tier of work, bike matrix will simply speed up the job of ordering parts and reduce misfires. For legacy brands, the automotive industry is facing the same issue. They’ve dismissed the far east for decades, while they’ve quietly been plugging away evolving the tech.
Yes. It’s moving fast. Once various gadgets harmonise Ai programming will quickly become better than a human. I have been using some gadgets that monitor recovery metrics. I think that humans will become the trouble shooters of Ai.
I dont have an expensive bike , and on it are mid level parts. But I see around me bikes that have high end parts and high end frames, road and mtb too. What I think , that the person who rides , makes much more that the equipments used. Yes , there are a min level of part quality where dont go under, but honestly, 70% of the riders buy (who buys it) shits because they can, and its newer, but not for an assumable reaosn . Lots of greate techs, parts, etc.s are alredy developed for relative affordable prices, just go with them. I really love mountain biking, but next year want to buy a road bike too. Have a Happy New Year and kilometers in safety !
I think the industry needs to consider recategorising bike models away from the current Aero, endurance etc standard & instead adopt a new categorisation that reflect contemporary rider “profiles” such as recreational, enthusiast, sport & pro. Riders can identify with one of those 4 profiles & manufacturers can build bikes to a price point to suit each category. Just a thought.
It's all about getting impersonal and trusting the machine is it? As a mechanic, I'm happy to give away some of my mystique to a machine that can to a good job of answering bicycle trivia questions and leave me to the interesting stuff that requires hands-on insight, mechanical skills and experience. I feel kinda the same about bike fitting. Maybe more people, that only need basic bike sizing, will get fitted by using a machine leaving the more challenging and interesting fits for the profesional fitters. As I hope you know, there is still a lot to bike fitting that benifits or requires the skills and insights of a good fitter. I disagree that many fitters are balancing conflicted priorities when fitting the clinents, even though some surely do. I have met very few that even consider the sales of parts to be a priority. All the fitters I've worked and trained with over the years are ONLY doing their best to get the client their best fit. Yeah, they may be proud of the sales they get. In my experience, we almost always try and figure out the best way to keep the fit as affordable as possible and help balance fit value vs. cost. And finally, as for east vs west, I like to think of it as local vs remote. I spend a lot of most days helping people recover from bad descision on parts they have purchased on-line or installing parts purchased on-line. On-line sales are big and growing because they give people access to things they otherwise can't get as easily locally, either because they don't want to get off the couch or it isn't available locally. If customers buy on-line, I don't have to spend 20 minutes finding an esoteric part that doesn't give me enough margin to pay for my shopping time. Sure, I loose some sales, but I get to then focus my time on the really good sales with people that appreciate their neighbors instead of being annoying bargan hunters. To each their own.
For sure. Proper bike fitters. Ie physiotherapists with bike knowledge, will be the only legitimate fitters. The rest of us are glorified sales assistants. ’
One thing I really want to see big brands do is embrace the custom build. For what they charge, its stupid that you can't change stuff like bars/wheels/cranks etc. at no cost. Maybe they can have a base build, then a custom build for a few hundred (not thousand) bucks more, with a free fit included. Bikes are so expensive they should come with a white glove service.
Biggest issue i most hear on Internet is the lack of proper quality control from weatern brands charging premium (for poor finishing, not round holes etc). The problem i hear from Eastern brands is poor QC and issues in getting problems sorted.
Data consolidation benefits larger companies more than consumers. The east/west issue would be best alleviated by more western manufacturing capabilities, but the elephant in the room is that a vast majority of bikes sold are department store garbage. People are poorly served by chasing price points that promise a false economy. As antiquated as it may seem, people are generally served best by local independent bike shops.
Having done bike fitting for 30 years, without anything but proper training and analog tools the AI or the software side of it has always been a fly in the ointment. The larger issue is why are people so “ok” with turning their decision-making, and the information gathering for that decision-making, over to machines? Just…why? I mean, it happens everywhere. Most of us don’t even engage in exercising control over our windshield wipers anymore. We leave it to sensors and software. Bike fit is a series of compromises made for the effective and comfortable use of an arbitrary thing made by humans. At it core it requires commitment to getting good information and making good decisions. That requires trust and accountability. And I will never understand why folks think a machine or software can do it better that an experienced person who is also capable of listening to a person’s “body story” and making proper adjustments. A good bike fit should never be about driving sales. It should be about creating some magic between the rider and the machine. To date I do not think I have ever charged more than $120 to do one. The prices are ridiculous, and they reflect having to repay an investment in machines and software. Also…no one, no Physical Therapist or PT Assistant, is qualified to do this. It is literally not in their practice act, nor are there any clinical certifications for it like there are for say, vestibular rehab or knee replacement. Again…finding a trustworthy and experienced person may be difficult, and may present separate issues, but for God’s sake, AI! Software?! You are putting trust in a whole lot of nothing there in my opinion; a being groomed to do so in almost every other aspect of our lives. So I get it. But there is a point her with all of it, and particularly bikes where one must ask if you are engaging in the activity in a human manner or not. Why are you doing it if you are willing to turn so much decision-making & info gathering over to nothing? To an algorithm? You the rider have a super computer in your skull.
I think you answered your own question. Why, because finding a fitter that isn’t a con artist is hard. It a trade with a terrible reputation and for the most part AI is better than most fitters.
I have had the same Trek Procaliber 9.6 on the shop floor from 3 different regions, same release year, same frame color, super different lowend/mid lvl spec brakes/ other wear and tear components on it. So good luck with it. Lol
Great perspectives! While AI search is fantastic, it is occasionally "doing mushrooms". It is not delivering curated answers so you need to verify everything.
I have used an AI bike fitting app and I am excited about what the future will bring, I would happily pay more if the app presented even more parameters and data. Imagine now having access to this if you lived way off the beaten track or in a country that has no specialist shops, my biggest gripe however with all bike fitting in general is being fitted on a static trainer and how that reflects to riding on the road, I personally can ride a far wider range of positions on a trainer than outside but I guess something is better than nothing, furthermore It also makes me wonder when will a AI bike fit be the expectation and the norm when purchasing a bike in store, is that not the best incentive to get people back into retail outlets?.
If the US introduces tariffs then I can see US brands pricing themselves out of the market. So SRAM may be getting ever more expensive while Shimano discount their groupsets after their losing market share due to the crankset debacle.
who knows wots about to happen. but cycling has 3 outstanding problems: 1. cost (of everything) 2. carbon as a standard, not bespoke, frame material (impractical, fragile) 3. disc brakes as standard (unnecessary, expensive, hard to maintain).
Yep. I think discs are here to stay, but it would be nice to see cable operated calipers improve. There are actually some really good ones, but crazy cost aimed at specialist long distance riders.
Non of this stuff pertains to me, I simply with ride old school lug steel and have been doing so since the mid 70's it served me well back then and it's serving me well today so to say no reason to change, one of the great thing about this older stuff I can mix and match to my hearts desire, perfect example during the early day of Mt biking, I had a customer who had a race the next day and he was in need of a new SHIMANO chain and freewheel, I said sorry to say, SHIMANO stuff on hand but I can get you up and running for your race, I cobbled up a REGINA EXTRA Freewheel along with a UNION # 910 chain, end game he made podium with a 3rd place finish. For myself it's great when some one riding old school steel are able to keep up with a HIGH $$$ Carbon guys. I will do my own bicycle fitting, I will build my own wheels and I can change up my bikes for different type of rides and road conditions, I know when I will have my set up all dialled in, the only sound that I will hear when riding my bicycle, will be whisper of my tires on the pavement. Just my 2 cents.
The one thing that WON'T happen, is any part of the industry selling truly practical bikes. There's STILL nothing to replace the old Raleigh Superbe from the 1954 catalogue. Pashley get somewhat near, but even they can't manage to wire up the rear light to the dynamo. That could be managed pre WW2. "Progress".
Easiest prediction is the evolution of more premium [expensive] Far East brands. I think the days of getting a halfway decent 1000 pound/1250 dollar carbon frameset from a reputable brand in the Far East without issue is long over. There will be a divergence where the reputable Far East brands continue pushing 2-3k framesets to compete with Western brands, while the race to the bottom on the AliExpress type sites just make their QC even worse than it already is.
Looking forward to an AI bike fit video, sounds like it could be a useful option. My (limited) experience with bike fits has not been great and while I’m all for local businesses (our LBS is absolutely fantastic for advise, discount, etc for example), I don’t feel a bike fit provides the same level of benefit.
Good clip, as always. I believe the X-Lab bike that Astana is riding on next year, umm from tomorrow, will be a deal breaker. At that price over the counter.... Rgr
Unlikely. Purely based on the idea of it being so late to market because the rapid rise of e-bikes. I suspect that every new MTB groupset will now be heavily influenced by the eMTB.
@Mapdec thx im trying to find info on xtr next gen but nothing i saw maybe sram transmision maybe going mechanical ! Or is that a joke would be actually nice
What Eastern brands? From my experience they sell there parts to a assembly plant in china they assemble it add some branding so the dealers can pretend they didnt buy a white label bike that is already starting to fall apart before you even pull it out of the box. Then when you go back to get help you get screwed around with by the guy on the service desk.
The problem with eastern brands is trust and accountability, when a Chinese company has a depot/ service centre in Europe even if it’s just the one as a point of contact / service advice / you know they are here it stay for a while, when they only exist 3000miles away there is no guarentee they will be there for you, saving 2k on a frame may sound a lot but if it’s not useable in 18months is it a good deal any more?
I agree with MyVeloFit. Amazing - Solved so much around my shoulder injury - I've got friends to use it and its all positive feedback - the 30 day subscription is the best option
The problem with AI is a hallucination. They will give you an answer even when they have no answer to give. So if you ask for a part for a bike and it doesn't know the answer, it will make up a plausible answer. So while it's fantastic and amazing a lot of the time, it is a disaster some of the time. At the moment, AI is most useful when you will be able to recogise a correct answer, but don't have time to look it up. For things like bike fitting, my concern is that for someone who knows *nothing*, the AI will give them a plausible answer that will cause injury. Since the user doesn't understand the level of trust they should put on the system and because the answer is plausible, they will push on even when it should be obvious that it's wrong. I'm a programmer and I've been using AI in my work for the last little while. It is occasionally helpful, but the main problem I have is that it often wastes more time than if I didn't use it in the first place. The real problem is that the answers are all really plausible and only subtly wrong. You end up chasing this weird situation where you think it should work, but it doesn't. Then when you back up and start from scratch, you realise, "Wait. That's just wrong".
AI is getting its information by scarping the web for everything that's ever been written, including the experience and adviuce shared by experienced bike mechanics and RUclipsrs. So... that's your IP!
Not worried about AI fitting. Even Retül is just a tool. A fitter who doesn’t know how to fit you without it, won’t also know how to fit you with it. Seen (and fixed) so many shitty Retül fittings, that I could almost suggest to generally not go to the fitter who uses it 😅 AI and Retül-without knowledge is ok for a young/fit person who doesn’t have problems on a bike (i.e. doesn’t really need a bike fitting)
Retul is indeed a measuring tool. These apps measure and suggest changes that are really very good and get excellent feedback. I have been using them in my shop. Makes it very difficult to charge. Even the most novice mechanic can get a rider to a good fit. I think these apps will uncover the bike fitting fraudsters.
Wish we had the brands the folks across the pond had access to! We get the big name brands trying to get us on their prices or niche boutique brands popping up at the same prices!
Yeah. I don’t think an Ai app will ever be as good at selling all the wedges, footbeds, shoes, cleats, saddles, bars etc. An app can’t read the body language of a rider in pain and desperately seeking help no matter the cost.
@@Mapdec well Ai is just a buzzword... the Ai part in this software is probably just image recognition / body tracking, but it will apply the same formula like knee angle to all the riders. I wont say every rider is different, but there are a lot of problems like hip impingement, heel dropper, etc. which can only be solved by an experienced bike fitter. But for riders without any complex problems it's a good starting point and most of the time enough. Also a fit body will compensate a lot. btw I'm app developer by myself... so not biased in therms of technology.
@@5amba as an app developer I think you will be very impressed. I think the AI part comes from user feedback on the adjustments made. So if it spots a problem and the solution works or not, that feeds into the learning. What i found really clever is that it knows if you did something wrong. Ie. If it says move your saddle forward, but you moved it down instead.
would be interesting to see the AI bike fit compared against a respected human fitter....both get first go and then see what adjustment is recommended if any. I can see the AI fit being good for a regular check rather than booking in and paying for a new fit.
I’ll try and set this up. I would say the Ai is less easily fooled. For instance an overweight rider sucking in their gut and hinging more than they usually would. Ai fails when the optimum fit is achieved but the rider still reports discomfort. But if n that situation most fitters also resort to trial and error mode, or have the decency to refer to actual medical professional.
There is a middle ground in the bike world, so much attention is on either cheap chinese or overpriced main stream. But look closer to home and the UK have many great affordable brands. Kinesis, Genesis, Fairlight, Mason, all great brands at more affordable prices.
I don't care what the bike industry does, I have my titanium custom made frame that I got just before Covid hit so the price was much better than they are today. The BB and headset are Chris King and have a lifetime warranty. I build my own wheels. All things being considered I don't have to care about the market and what it's doing. I do predict Shimano will be lowering prices because the Japanese economy is tanking right now and demand for $4000 groupsets is going down plus the Chinese groups coming on strong. I also think there will be a lot of RUclips channels about cycling tech dying out because it won't be a money maker or worth the amount of work it takes to produce ongoing content.
I wouldn't hang my hat on AI being impartial. Before long, these apps and outfits will be bought out by the likes of Trek, Specialized, Gaint, or Pon. The entire industry is fighting tooth and nail for customers. They won't allow for 3rd party impartial algorithms to dictate your bike purchase. Hasnt worked in the auto industry either.
I think you could be right. The only thing I can think of that might stop that is the rapid uptake of users and the owners of the apps making more money than those big brands can offer. It’s a tall ask.
I think we'll see more 'complete bikes' from China, and a recognised brand using a Chinese groupset - rather than one of the big 3, or should i say 2...
I think ebike sales will continue to ramp up. I have only my anecdotal observations as follows. Many people my age (64) enjoy getting out and about in the countryside. An ebike gives freedom to quietly explore and its a relatively inexpensive mode of transport. So many of my peers have lost fitness but still want to go offroad. Thankfully im not in that place (yet) and am about to buy a 'cross bike to hit trails as fast as i can. Big cycle stores will continue to offer 30% discounts on "last years bike models" to offload inventory. I wish all the best for all bike shops in 2025
Someone is going to develop a bicycle that is more aero than a TT bike, more comfortable than a beach cruiser, and safer than a road bike. Well, develop is probably not the right word since a bike like that already exists, and was banned by the UCI in 1934 because it was beating the pants off everything else and the UCI was scared that such a fast bike was going to kill its riders, which is why everyone now rides road bikes.
@@Mapdec there are more sales of e-bikes and with all cars having to soon be electric the car industry has bigger problems. also it helps with safety because it means turning at junctions, would be easier to get up to speed having turned into traffic.
I received my very first set of Chinees wheels yesterday (8Lien L5W), these wheels are awesome, they are super lite (1220g), just the right amount of stiffness and the killer part is they only cost me $1.1k shipped to Hawaii!! These wheels outshine my Zipp 303 & 404 Firecrest wheels.
Chinese wheels are better, I just ordered a pair of chinese wheels at 50mm deep with a 24mm internal 30mm external, sapim cx ray spokes, sapim brass nipples and a hub with the same design as dt swiss hubs with a total weight of 1315g all for the price of £650 delivered, and if your still a western hub fan for £900 you could have dt swiss 240 hubs.
@Mapdec well from a performance point of view they're lighter and are wider meaning 28mm tires are more aero optimised. The spokes are all perfectly tensioned and the hub is just as easy to service as a dt Swiss hub. So yes a better wheel for the money or just a better wheel.
Gemini (and probably other AI as well, dunno, didn't try many) - are really really untrustworthy. Try yourself. Try comparing some products (a TV, a HUB, a Tablet or anything else). Then go and search for info Gemini spits out yourself. The information is often inaccurate or really old. I lost trust in the tool completely after 2-3 occasions. Gemini is still good for other tasks tho.
I can't see who Bike Matrix is for. Riders won't pay for it. Shops don't need it. Small manufacturers of individual components want to be compatible, but don't want to be seen as interchangeable. It takes a microscope (or a marketing team) to differentiate stems, bars, wheels, and so on. Large manufacturers (S&S) don't want their groups split apart. SRAM wants to sell you the Transmission system, not a cassette you'll bodge together with a Shimano derailleur. Anyone in this business also knows that what's "compatible" on a spreadsheet may not be in the flesh, never mind optimal. That's what shops are for: help pick the right thing and assemble it correctly.
Great comment. Well put. 🙏
Here is a TOP SECRET! The big brands will release a new model that is 6 watts faster, 30 grams lighter, boring paint, wide handle bars, longs stems,long cranks and narrow seats (that you can change at a huge cost) and a size range that doesn’t fit short people. But there is even more. It will be twice the price from ten years ago, rim and tires will be ridiculously wide, disc brakes will still squeal and last but not least it will be heavier than your bike from 10 years ago especially when you add your $1000 computer brick on the front so you can ride around looking at your strava results on the screen. Happy new year!
brilliant.
Easy. Buy framesets. Build it yourself or get it built at a trusted bike shop. Build it hundreds of grams lighter than stock with custom parts. Save thousands of dollars while doing that.
Will it come with an extra gear? 1x14?
@@CycleXplorer :D HAHA LOL
@ possible but difficult. Add the price of a new SL8 frame set for example, add a reputable groupo, wheels, bar/stem, tires and saddle and I dare say it would work out more expensive than the stock item. Big brands have gone custom paint, hopefully the next progression is part selection prior to order. Things like bar, stem, saddle and crank length should be provided at customers request. A good (very good) bike store may swap these items out for you, at least they use to in the past. But up selling is now all part of the sales game.
Square wheels would be the biggest disruption in cycling. It'd make cycling way more difficult.
The wheels would be the easy bit...the tires on the other hand
I ride fixed. Difficult is cool!
Square wheels are a game changer “They made a “Carry On” film about them 😉
Well, given the commentary around pro racing being too fast, you might be on to something here...
😂
I sincerely marvel at the fact that you are a practical man, an active rider, a businessman, and that you can engage with all of this overriding futurism, yet remain calm and pragmatic about the uncertainty of it all.
I think that your engagement with communicating all of this to us, might be the secret adjunct to your stability.
Thank you, and happy new year, from an older and a lesser mortal, who shares some of your abilities, but who definitely wouldn’t cope with your workload and position.
🙏. Thank you. Coping is probably the right word, it’s been a tough year.
What an incredibly well put together Vid. Really informative and helpful. Thanks
Bike Matrix sounds kinda like PC Part Picker that allows you to build your own computer from scratch. And it's been here for a while now and it works pretty much perfectly. But then again, computer part standardization is LIGHT YEARS ahead of ANYTHING related to the bike industry. I have a tech background and when I really got into bikes, I thought the world of bike industry standards was absolutely insane. Well, I still do. Not sure if Bike Matrix can pull their thing off, but I really hope so. It's tools like that, that allow newcomers get into the hobby WAY more easily.
pcparkpicker were making a bicycle-focussed version of their site, but they nixxed it.
PC Part Picker is also free. It would have never gotten anywhere if it were a paid app.
I'm glad you said something about a bike fit as an insider. I really think it's turned into a really expensive way to get your saddle height adjusted. A high number of people just need to be within a window and there are tons of resources to aid that, and part 2, you can feel it yourself. I'm not anti bike fit, but the 300 plus dollar Wizz bang option for a lot of people seems crazy.
bike fitting, the cycling industry's equivilant of "trust me bro this is how it's supposed to be".... whn you ask 5 "bike fitters" the exact same questions 5 times over and they all give you a completely different answer. after a while you just start to think its a whole lot of bullshit based around one very core idea.
Yep. Get 3 fits on the same day, they will all change something.
100% this!
@@Mapdec When I had my initial fit the first hour or so of it wasn't on a bike, but on a table to test and check my body. As the fitter explained it to me: we can measure everything and fit you on defaults, but if something in your body isn't symmetrical or it doesn't feel good, we aren't changing it.
It worked for me and the problems I had never returned, but it also made me very hesitant to visit a fitter that puts you on a bike to watch you pedal.
@ wow. An how ROM test is a bit excessive, but it is somewhat important. I tend to assume most people are ‘normal’ and then go back to ROM tests if I see or hear something that casts doubt. I charge by the hour, rather than by fit. So sometimes I have a happy customer in 30mins and sometimes a fit can take 2-3 hours. Usually with complicated fits they need a professional above a bike fitter and we refer to physios, osteopaths, podiatrists etc.
@@Mapdec bike fits are now redundant as you can change very little on a modern human powered appliance these days. It might find the ideal position for a 50 year old that can afford a bike, but the bikes are manufactured for 20 year old racers. So now instead of tailoring the bike to the rider we know tailor the rider to the bike. I see a lot of Aero bike riders with neck problems caused by their bikes.
Your comments on bike fitting make sense. I found an independent guy here in Kingston when I needed bike fits two years ago and he enabled me to adjust my existing cycle relatively cheaply without pushing products. But you see some providers whose business seems to revolve around selling upmarket bikes and Lake shoes, at full price! Similar to when a doctor recommends a medicine there is a clear moral hazard that must influence recommendations.
Many You Tube channels that ‘review’ products run the same risk, of course. I like this channel because the analysis is great and you are running a business, which you are 100% transparent about too!
Thank you. Sounds like you found a good fitter.
"My responses are limited, you must ask the right questions." - Dr. Alfred Lanning, iRobot(2004). I find working with AI means asking the right questions.
refreshing to hear your honest comments! wishing you a prosperous new year in 2025
Spot on "predictions". Happy New Year!
Great vid dude.. very interesting 😊 happy new year buddy 😊 Pete 🚴🏻👍
Cheers Pete. Happy New Year.
As a former bike fitter I find the thought of AI bike fitting interesting but also worrying at the same time. I also agree about smoke and mirrors lol.
Interesting because it could help get most people most of the time into a solid position which means they can enjoy riding their bike without pain.
However, something I found with systems like Retul is that it’s easy to please the system (get the right numbers) but the system can’t tell whether you’re comfortable or if it’s causing you pain because of another issue.
I think you will always need a GOOD experienced human to interprate the data and listen to the rider.
ive watched some bike services on your channel , this was interesting and i have subscribed , have a happy new year
Welcome aboard! Happy New Year.
I wouldn't be surprised if there will be more aluminum frame bikes getting close to the 6.8kg mark off the shelf. There seems to be a growing choice of very weightweenie parts to make that easier and easier to accomplish. The new choices might be carbon for aero and aluminum for affordable and lightweight climbing maybe?
I would defo champion more Alu bikes. Just for recycling sake.
Thanks for the shout out :) Great video!
Good luck for 2025
Thank you for addressing the western pricing and the eastern potential disruption. I believe this is the biggest and most important challenge of the biking industry and that includes the consumer behavior aswell.
Just a little correction regarding how affiliate links work nowadays:
"If we put a link down in our description saying "click this link, buy now" then essentially we get a cut of that sale".
Should actually be:
"If we put a link down in our description saying "click this link, buy now" Honey will steal our cut of that sale".
Happy new year!
Haha. 😛
The only roadblock for the eastern brands is distribution in the west. Once they conquer that hurdle, things will get spicey 😉
They have the logistics tech for very efficient D2C. No need for regional distribution.
@@davidpalk5010 It's just incredible how they can ship almost anything for free, when it cost sometimes more than the part itself to ship in Europe or even in your home country...
@@DR_1_1 Shipping is subsidised by Chinese Govt. to aid export business and gain dollars. China now owns a massive amount of US (and UK) national debt, and that gives it great global power. We are now seeing Chinese car brands, phone brands, bike brands, etc. VW, Ford and Stellantis are in crisis. China is buying foreign ports to gain control of supply routes. Your taxes go to pay interest to China which they use to invest in growth and development, whilst the local public services which you think you are funding are being cut back to nothing. Museums, libraries, road repairs - forget all that because the money to pay for it is owed to China instead, so that they can build more universities, power stations, factories and ports. Every purchase of Chinese goods is another tiny tack in the coffin, but it's way too late for a boycott. It would seem as if economic communism (state control of currency and finance) has beaten western free-market capitalism. You might have noticed that real economic decline in "the west" has already begun, and nobody is predicting an upturn. So, the cost of their shipping is not incredible at all. It's simply part of a well orchestrated plan to become the globally dominant economy and take down the US empire, of which the UK is obviously a member. Enjoy the slide!
I see people clearing their garages and trying to sell the bikes they bought during the COVID peak. These bikes are now beyond what the owners are prepared to repair. These bikes are approaching 5 years and many have fallen in to dis repair due to lack of use. 2 tubelsss tyres, an integrated headset, a new chain and a bottom bracket will beyond what the owner will want to spend. If you were 50 in 2020 and haven’t cycled since COVID your bike will be an item to sell this year.
The industry has run out of customers that where born in the 1970s and this age group has been milked for every penny and grown up with BMX, mountain bikes , xc mountain bikes , downhill mountain bikes, road bikes, aero road and gravel. , Brands will have to finfmd new customers and make cycling cool
Born in the mid 60s....No one has ever milked me...Not everyone is a fool to be parted readily from their money for trinkets. The contemporary bike scene is bloody awful.
@ if you were born in the mid 60s you would have been of to work when the BMX boom hit the uk shores and the bicycle industry has been marketing the money out of our pockets ever since.
BMX sales dried up they invented freestyle we bought it and we where buying a genre or iteration ever since.
Every 3 years a new shiny thing for the 1970s generation to buy .
BMX 1979 1982
BMC freestyle 1982 1986
Mountain bikes 1986 1989
Front suspension 1989 to 1992
Full suspension 1992 to 1995
Down hill 1995 to 1999
North shore
Then the marketing boys moved in to road bikes
1990 to 1993aluminium road bikes sti shifters
1994 to 2000 the groupset wars 2x7 to 2x9
2000 to 2004 carbon fibre monocoque bikes
2004 the rise of the endurance bike
2007 Aero starts and electronic group sets
2012 optimised Aero rim brake bikes
2014 hydraulic discs
2017 aero disc bikes
2020 aero climbing bikes
2022 fat tyre road bikes
2024 aero is back
You can play around with the dates but every 3 years regular as clockwork the marketing departments feed us a new must have. If you watch from the outside as I have since 2012 you can see the pattern and then I can think back to my early 20s riding Audax’s on the latest trek and old boys on steel bikes handing it to me after 3 punishing hours. Only for another 2 to 3 hours of suffering.
If the Eastern brands can supply better finished frames than some of the high end Western frames you have to retro repair, they could do well. The Eastern brands seem to be alot more customer focused.
Often you fix new frames, from Western brands, like bottom bracket facing/reaming, brake mounts etc, I recall the Cannondale Evo with the eggshell thin carbon around the headset & the replacement being no better....
Ai bike fitting sounds interesting, especially if it has no selling agenda.
Matrix, sounds like a great idea, maybe a newer version of what Sheldon Brown was doing with his website.
Happy New Year to you and your staff, looking forward to more great RUclips content👍
Great Show... Cheers. Oh and Happy New Year.
Thanks for watching!
I do hope prices drop, im looking at new bikes, its either buy the cheapest model with 105, strip it, sell the parts and buy what i want at a huge saving, example 2.5k for a 105 bike with basic wheels or 6k + for ultegra di2 with average wheels, even if you keep the parts it leaves £3500 to buy a groupset and fantastic wheels. If Cube can do better prices then they all can
The bike matrix thing seems really interesting, I am gonna go check it out. I have an old 2005 Scott mountain bike, and I was in the middle of restoring it with an eye to converting it to a single speed oversized BMX bike. Locating compatible parts is a nightmare. I didn’t realise the MTB standards are all crazy. It’s got a 135mm rear axle width which instantly disqualifies heaps of newer components, something I didn’t realise until researching it. I came from MTB to road (I got to MTB from BMX!) but I’ve not kept up with the MTB tech. I probably should have realised this as I’ve been hearing in road circles about how all the new MTB tech leaks over eventually (tubeless, 1x, etc), I just didn’t think of the impact of trying to get compatible parts for a 20 year old bike 😮
I have to say as a working IT professional that I’m pretty suspicious of many of the claims of AI. It’s just linear algebra, trying to pull a vector around a multi-dimensional matrix until it matches what’s in its model. Its great for some things, maybe bike fitting is one of those things, but for many other things it cannot replace a human’s capacity for creative thinking. Plus you have to deal with its occasional capacity to hallucinate data out of thin air (the day one tells someone to buy an expensive and incompatible part for their bike, for example). I bet it would struggle with someone with a large asymmetry in their leg length, extremely tall or short people, and so on. Those sorts of edge cases where the model will not have a lot of data in it. I dunno, I got a bike fit the old school way from Neil Stanbury, and it served me very well! Sometimes human relationships can outmatch any sort of technology.
I hope you’re right about the Chinese / Western brands thing. We need to see what happens with the new US adminstration and what they do to the trading relationship with China. It might mean that everyone bar the USA manages to get better access to the Chinese parts if the Yanks manage to tariff their way to oblivion. On GCN this week they mentioned that some of the big Western brands at the top end are finding increased sales in mainland China, which I thought was an interesting development if it bears out.
Anyway the best thing of 2024 was finding this channel, so cheers and happy new year!
Great comment. Yes the rise of the Chinese middle class has created demand for exotic western brands. Look have this huge fancy showroom somewhere in Asia. I keep seeing it pop up on LinkedIn.
So much of the cycling industry reminds me of the Emperor's New Clothes. Maybe 2025 will be when riders realise they can squeeze a few extra watts by dropping a few KGs rather than buy Ceramic Speed Jockey Wheels for £500!
You assume most riders cares about physical fitness or watts lol.
The dominant cycling community supporting the industry sees cycling as a hobby with fun toys and bike gizmos. Caring about fitness and watts over enjoying cycling as a hobby with fun toys sounds like a very boring approach to this hobby lol
@ I absolutely don’t. As a cyclist of 45 years who came through the UK club scene I agree completely with you.
Western brands are definitely going to have to step up their value proposition. I feel like companies like Time have had a resurgence because they offer something Specialized don't. As Asian brands move into the TdF and gravel sponsorships, the current market hold brands like Specialize have will slip unless they display something Asia isn't offering. I don't think they need to drop their prices, but a 12-15K bike should be custom fitted or offer something more than just being a bit more stiff or lightweight.
Great point. At these prices there should be a white glove experience
Agree with AI. Happy new 2025 to all!
As you were talking about Bike Matrix, I was thinking about Gemini and you mentioned that too! As someone who wrenches on my own bikes for fun - Gemini has been invaluable in terms of getting information on sizes, torque specs, number of spacers, widths etc. Its not 100% accurate, but its usually good enough to get started on the right path.
Yeah. And it just gets better and better.
Really interesting summary.
I would love to see more universal standards like the udh.
On a completely unrelated note, I would like to point out a very nice way to do sponsored videos, that I have seen from a tech channel on RUclips. Their name is GamersNexus and they do incredible work and have a great reputation. What they do, is they let a product sponsor the video and not a manufacturer. This way they can ensure their viewers, if they want to buy those products, actually get something good. I find this an incredibly nice balance between sponsored content and respect for the viewers.
I know the channel. You make a great point. interesting idea.
There's a potentially useful data loop to close from the AI/online bike fitting. I think it might highlight a wider range of rider sizes and riding positions. I'm particularly thinking of shorter riders, more unusual leg:torso ratios, more upright positions.
If this was collected in the right way, smart companies might actually start making bikes better suited for real people rather than young pro athletes.
Linked to that is another trend I see developing where bikes become more versatile or configurable. I think riders want to be less categorised as "road", "gravel", "mountain" or whatever and we might see more bikes usable for general recreational riding on a variety of surfaces. Certainly the mid-tier "gravel" bikes seem to be moving in that direction.
Oh. Yes. Possibly the biggest market research project ever done.
I'd love AI be able to identify an exact year for a bike. I do reasonably well identifying within a couple of years as I'm 50 and been doing it since I was a teenager. My new colleague who is 24 and been in the industry 6 months finds it much harder.
People seem to think that enjoying (and chasing) cycling trends while pursuing performance are antithetical to each other.
It doesn’t have to be that way. There is literally nothing stopping you from following a training routine and getting up at 4am daily for your workouts, cross train in the gym, while also spending frequently for new bike and gizmos.
Granted, your finances may be a limiting factor. But let’s be real; cycling is a hobby, and if your finances is limited, what are you doing cycling instead of working more then? I grew up without sports because my family was too poor to support one, so whats working with just, not cycling if you’re too poor to do that?
Western brands are priced ridiculously high and in a lot of cases unobtainable. I’d go as far as saying not worth the asking price. There needs to be a reality check and I’m glad Chinese brands are competitive which benefits the consumer.
The biggest challenge for the chinese cheapo brands is indeed accountability: Who can be hanged in the town yard if that carbon frame cracks at 20mph?
With established western brands, there are offices and legal entities in the local countries, but these shadows hiding behind AliExpress are untouchable. I would never buy there.
I would love to hear your thoughts on schwalbe clik valves
I’ll see if I can get some test stuff in.
Do parts really matter? There's lots of alternatives, adaptors and such. I've just rebuilt a derelict 2014 Stumpjumper EVO, and almost all the parts I replaced were non standard and very good quality Chinese manufactured (like most parts BTW). What particularly impressed me was the IIIPro IV4R 4-piston brakes I fitted. I wish I'd known about them earlier. Even delivery from China was faster than ordering any big brand stuff through local bike shops then waiting for them to order from distributor (if the part was even available).
oh god yes! its parts like derailleur hangers, cable guides, headset top caps, seat post clamps, all these are so integrated these days they are special to just one frame. With wheels it's parts like axles, freehubs, freehub spacers, pawls. Sure Covid is still bringing us a global shortage, but most China direct brands just see stuff as disposable and never even make spares.
What's your opinion on the winspace brand, quality etc. Have you had any experience with them ?
I have not seen one in the flesh.
Great video. I don’t think Ai will replace us, it’s a tool like anything else.
Try it for pt programming, it could write a programme for you but you’d still need to adapt it for each client and deliver the training.
It removes a tier of work, bike matrix will simply speed up the job of ordering parts and reduce misfires.
For legacy brands, the automotive industry is facing the same issue. They’ve dismissed the far east for decades, while they’ve quietly been plugging away evolving the tech.
Yes. It’s moving fast. Once various gadgets harmonise Ai programming will quickly become better than a human. I have been using some gadgets that monitor recovery metrics. I think that humans will become the trouble shooters of Ai.
I dont have an expensive bike , and on it are mid level parts. But I see around me bikes that have high end parts and high end frames, road and mtb too. What I think , that the person who rides , makes much more that the equipments used. Yes , there are a min level of part quality where dont go under, but honestly, 70% of the riders buy (who buys it) shits because they can, and its newer, but not for an assumable reaosn . Lots of greate techs, parts, etc.s are alredy developed for relative affordable prices, just go with them. I really love mountain biking, but next year want to buy a road bike too. Have a Happy New Year and kilometers in safety !
im still waiting for a new Time Scylon
Did you see the teaser image I posted?
yes we waiting :)
@@Mapdec i did, hope it comes soon 🙏
I think the industry needs to consider recategorising bike models away from the current Aero, endurance etc standard & instead adopt a new categorisation that reflect contemporary rider “profiles” such as recreational, enthusiast, sport & pro. Riders can identify with one of those 4 profiles & manufacturers can build bikes to a price point to suit each category. Just a thought.
It’s a good one. Makes me think of skis and how we choose them on terrain and speed.
It's all about getting impersonal and trusting the machine is it? As a mechanic, I'm happy to give away some of my mystique to a machine that can to a good job of answering bicycle trivia questions and leave me to the interesting stuff that requires hands-on insight, mechanical skills and experience. I feel kinda the same about bike fitting. Maybe more people, that only need basic bike sizing, will get fitted by using a machine leaving the more challenging and interesting fits for the profesional fitters. As I hope you know, there is still a lot to bike fitting that benifits or requires the skills and insights of a good fitter. I disagree that many fitters are balancing conflicted priorities when fitting the clinents, even though some surely do. I have met very few that even consider the sales of parts to be a priority. All the fitters I've worked and trained with over the years are ONLY doing their best to get the client their best fit. Yeah, they may be proud of the sales they get. In my experience, we almost always try and figure out the best way to keep the fit as affordable as possible and help balance fit value vs. cost. And finally, as for east vs west, I like to think of it as local vs remote. I spend a lot of most days helping people recover from bad descision on parts they have purchased on-line or installing parts purchased on-line. On-line sales are big and growing because they give people access to things they otherwise can't get as easily locally, either because they don't want to get off the couch or it isn't available locally. If customers buy on-line, I don't have to spend 20 minutes finding an esoteric part that doesn't give me enough margin to pay for my shopping time. Sure, I loose some sales, but I get to then focus my time on the really good sales with people that appreciate their neighbors instead of being annoying bargan hunters. To each their own.
For sure. Proper bike fitters. Ie physiotherapists with bike knowledge, will be the only legitimate fitters. The rest of us are glorified sales assistants. ’
Happy new year 🎉
Happy new year
One thing I really want to see big brands do is embrace the custom build. For what they charge, its stupid that you can't change stuff like bars/wheels/cranks etc. at no cost. Maybe they can have a base build, then a custom build for a few hundred (not thousand) bucks more, with a free fit included. Bikes are so expensive they should come with a white glove service.
Totally on board with this.
Biggest issue i most hear on Internet is the lack of proper quality control from weatern brands charging premium (for poor finishing, not round holes etc). The problem i hear from Eastern brands is poor QC and issues in getting problems sorted.
That’s a pretty good summary to be fair.
Data consolidation benefits larger companies more than consumers. The east/west issue would be best alleviated by more western manufacturing capabilities, but the elephant in the room is that a vast majority of bikes sold are department store garbage. People are poorly served by chasing price points that promise a false economy. As antiquated as it may seem, people are generally served best by local independent bike shops.
Having done bike fitting for 30 years, without anything but proper training and analog tools the AI or the software side of it has always been a fly in the ointment. The larger issue is why are people so “ok” with turning their decision-making, and the information gathering for that decision-making, over to machines? Just…why? I mean, it happens everywhere. Most of us don’t even engage in exercising control over our windshield wipers anymore. We leave it to sensors and software. Bike fit is a series of compromises made for the effective and comfortable use of an arbitrary thing made by humans. At it core it requires commitment to getting good information and making good decisions. That requires trust and accountability. And I will never understand why folks think a machine or software can do it better that an experienced person who is also capable of listening to a person’s “body story” and making proper adjustments. A good bike fit should never be about driving sales. It should be about creating some magic between the rider and the machine. To date I do not think I have ever charged more than $120 to do one. The prices are ridiculous, and they reflect having to repay an investment in machines and software. Also…no one, no Physical Therapist or PT Assistant, is qualified to do this. It is literally not in their practice act, nor are there any clinical certifications for it like there are for say, vestibular rehab or knee replacement. Again…finding a trustworthy and experienced person may be difficult, and may present separate issues, but for God’s sake, AI! Software?! You are putting trust in a whole lot of nothing there in my opinion; a being groomed to do so in almost every other aspect of our lives. So I get it. But there is a point her with all of it, and particularly bikes where one must ask if you are engaging in the activity in a human manner or not. Why are you doing it if you are willing to turn so much decision-making & info gathering over to nothing? To an algorithm? You the rider have a super computer in your skull.
I think you answered your own question. Why, because finding a fitter that isn’t a con artist is hard. It a trade with a terrible reputation and for the most part AI is better than most fitters.
@ yes it’s a trade with a terrible reputation that has done the data collection that goes into the predictive intelligence of the apps and whatnot.
More rim brake bikes showing up 😊
Not happening. Rim brakes are gone.
I have had the same Trek Procaliber 9.6 on the shop floor from 3 different regions, same release year, same frame color, super different lowend/mid lvl spec brakes/ other wear and tear components on it. So good luck with it. Lol
Haha, yes, regional variations. oh its a minefield. lol
Great perspectives!
While AI search is fantastic, it is occasionally "doing mushrooms". It is not delivering curated answers so you need to verify everything.
It’s not bad for year 1.
I have used an AI bike fitting app and I am excited about what the future will bring, I would happily pay more if the app presented even more parameters and data. Imagine now having access to this if you lived way off the beaten track or in a country that has no specialist shops, my biggest gripe however with all bike fitting in general is being fitted on a static trainer and how that reflects to riding on the road, I personally can ride a far wider range of positions on a trainer than outside but I guess something is better than nothing, furthermore It also makes me wonder when will a AI bike fit be the expectation and the norm when purchasing a bike in store, is that not the best incentive to get people back into retail outlets?.
If the US introduces tariffs then I can see US brands pricing themselves out of the market.
So SRAM may be getting ever more expensive while Shimano discount their groupsets after their losing market share due to the crankset debacle.
who knows wots about to happen. but cycling has 3 outstanding problems:
1. cost (of everything)
2. carbon as a standard, not bespoke, frame material (impractical, fragile)
3. disc brakes as standard (unnecessary, expensive, hard to maintain).
Yep. I think discs are here to stay, but it would be nice to see cable operated calipers improve. There are actually some really good ones, but crazy cost aimed at specialist long distance riders.
Maybe Time will sort out their line-up in 2025.
More chance of square wheels.
More importantly was there three Cruz’s under the Mapdec tree this year?😮…Happy 2025🥳
Non of this stuff pertains to me, I simply with ride old school lug steel and have been doing so since the mid 70's it served me well back then and it's serving me well today so to say no reason to change, one of the great thing about this older stuff I can mix and match to my hearts desire, perfect example during the early day of Mt biking, I had a customer who had a race the next day and he was in need of a new SHIMANO chain and freewheel, I said sorry to say, SHIMANO stuff on hand but I can get you up and running for your race, I cobbled up a REGINA EXTRA Freewheel along with a UNION # 910 chain, end game he made podium with a 3rd place finish. For myself it's great when some one riding old school steel are able to keep up with a HIGH $$$ Carbon guys. I will do my own bicycle fitting, I will build my own wheels and I can change up my bikes for different type of rides and road conditions, I know when I will have my set up all dialled in, the only sound that I will hear when riding my bicycle, will be whisper of my tires on the pavement. Just my 2 cents.
happy new year, guys and gals. Hope to see gravelly goodness since I'm new to gravel biking. Selfish I know...lol
Oh. We do have a Riley in for test….
@@Mapdec you guys are professionals. I'll wait with baited breath for a good breakdown from the experts.
The one thing that WON'T happen, is any part of the industry selling truly practical bikes.
There's STILL nothing to replace the old Raleigh Superbe from the 1954 catalogue.
Pashley get somewhat near, but even they can't manage to wire up the rear light to the dynamo.
That could be managed pre WW2.
"Progress".
Easiest prediction is the evolution of more premium [expensive] Far East brands. I think the days of getting a halfway decent 1000 pound/1250 dollar carbon frameset from a reputable brand in the Far East without issue is long over. There will be a divergence where the reputable Far East brands continue pushing 2-3k framesets to compete with Western brands, while the race to the bottom on the AliExpress type sites just make their QC even worse than it already is.
Looking forward to an AI bike fit video, sounds like it could be a useful option. My (limited) experience with bike fits has not been great and while I’m all for local businesses (our LBS is absolutely fantastic for advise, discount, etc for example), I don’t feel a bike fit provides the same level of benefit.
Coming soon!
Good clip, as always. I believe the X-Lab bike that Astana is riding on next year, umm from tomorrow, will be a deal breaker. At that price over the counter.... Rgr
It is going to spark rapid action from the traditional brands if the x-lab starts selling. That’s for sure.
The RCR Van Rysel was more reasonably priced last year & selling well
This year I believe it's now upto10k !
@@nigelwood6242 Not unusual. The X-Lab har Dura Ace Di2 and Vision high profile, 60mm. Branded gear... Rgr
@ yeah. The Trek Madone is now like for like on spec and price. It’s all just headlines.
I tried AI for whether a Campagnolo chainset fits on a Colnago Prestige 2019, and it said yes. It’s wrong.
Of course it will fit. You just need a Campagnolo BB86 bottom bracket.
Will new shimano xtr still be mechanical thats the question...
Unlikely. Purely based on the idea of it being so late to market because the rapid rise of e-bikes. I suspect that every new MTB groupset will now be heavily influenced by the eMTB.
@Mapdec thx im trying to find info on xtr next gen but nothing i saw maybe sram transmision maybe going mechanical ! Or is that a joke would be actually nice
Maybe the bike fit AI will open up improved access custom frames and optimum component choice?
I think it will.
I see new things, steel frames, 10spds friction shifters,inner tubes,SO THERE,back to the 60’s
Be spoke, printed frames in the USA is the future. Groupsets are next.
What Eastern brands? From my experience they sell there parts to a assembly plant in china they assemble it add some branding so the dealers can pretend they didnt buy a white label bike that is already starting to fall apart before you even pull it out of the box. Then when you go back to get help you get screwed around with by the guy on the service desk.
AI tools will either be expensive to buy, full of ads, or brand affiliated. It will be monetized somehow. I doubt it will really be so brand agnostic
The problem with eastern brands is trust and accountability, when a Chinese company has a depot/ service centre in Europe even if it’s just the one as a point of contact / service advice / you know they are here it stay for a while, when they only exist 3000miles away there is no guarentee they will be there for you, saving 2k on a frame may sound a lot but if it’s not useable in 18months is it a good deal any more?
Forgot mechanics who can overhaul ,3spd hubs.
Best found in Brompton dealerships.
I agree with MyVeloFit. Amazing - Solved so much around my shoulder injury - I've got friends to use it and its all positive feedback - the 30 day subscription is the best option
A solution to a problem that doesn't really exist. Keep the market afloat before adding irrelevance and gimmick
The problem with AI is a hallucination. They will give you an answer even when they have no answer to give. So if you ask for a part for a bike and it doesn't know the answer, it will make up a plausible answer. So while it's fantastic and amazing a lot of the time, it is a disaster some of the time. At the moment, AI is most useful when you will be able to recogise a correct answer, but don't have time to look it up. For things like bike fitting, my concern is that for someone who knows *nothing*, the AI will give them a plausible answer that will cause injury. Since the user doesn't understand the level of trust they should put on the system and because the answer is plausible, they will push on even when it should be obvious that it's wrong.
I'm a programmer and I've been using AI in my work for the last little while. It is occasionally helpful, but the main problem I have is that it often wastes more time than if I didn't use it in the first place. The real problem is that the answers are all really plausible and only subtly wrong. You end up chasing this weird situation where you think it should work, but it doesn't. Then when you back up and start from scratch, you realise, "Wait. That's just wrong".
AI is getting its information by scarping the web for everything that's ever been written, including the experience and adviuce shared by experienced bike mechanics and RUclipsrs. So... that's your IP!
Sadly cycling has become expensive so the Chinese brands are on the up I have tryed Chinese brands so far so good
Not worried about AI fitting. Even Retül is just a tool. A fitter who doesn’t know how to fit you without it, won’t also know how to fit you with it. Seen (and fixed) so many shitty Retül fittings, that I could almost suggest to generally not go to the fitter who uses it 😅
AI and Retül-without knowledge is ok for a young/fit person who doesn’t have problems on a bike (i.e. doesn’t really need a bike fitting)
Retul is indeed a measuring tool. These apps measure and suggest changes that are really very good and get excellent feedback. I have been using them in my shop. Makes it very difficult to charge. Even the most novice mechanic can get a rider to a good fit. I think these apps will uncover the bike fitting fraudsters.
Cube offers full carbon road and gravel with Di2 and SRAM Red Axs for 3000 euros...
Wish we had the brands the folks across the pond had access to! We get the big name brands trying to get us on their prices or niche boutique brands popping up at the same prices!
There is not a single software on the market, which can replace a good bike fitter.
Yeah. I don’t think an Ai app will ever be as good at selling all the wedges, footbeds, shoes, cleats, saddles, bars etc. An app can’t read the body language of a rider in pain and desperately seeking help no matter the cost.
@@Mapdec well Ai is just a buzzword...
the Ai part in this software is probably just image recognition / body tracking, but it will apply the same formula like knee angle to all the riders. I wont say every rider is different, but there are a lot of problems like hip impingement, heel dropper, etc. which can only be solved by an experienced bike fitter.
But for riders without any complex problems it's a good starting point and most of the time enough. Also a fit body will compensate a lot.
btw I'm app developer by myself... so not biased in therms of technology.
@@5amba as an app developer I think you will be very impressed. I think the AI part comes from user feedback on the adjustments made. So if it spots a problem and the solution works or not, that feeds into the learning. What i found really clever is that it knows if you did something wrong. Ie. If it says move your saddle forward, but you moved it down instead.
would be interesting to see the AI bike fit compared against a respected human fitter....both get first go and then see what adjustment is recommended if any. I can see the AI fit being good for a regular check rather than booking in and paying for a new fit.
I’ll try and set this up. I would say the Ai is less easily fooled. For instance an overweight rider sucking in their gut and hinging more than they usually would. Ai fails when the optimum fit is achieved but the rider still reports discomfort. But if n that situation most fitters also resort to trial and error mode, or have the decency to refer to actual medical professional.
Shimano XTR/XT group set.
Big new trend for 2025 will be XC MTB, and all you have to do is put a flat bar on your gravel bike.
Why would I want to restrain my ride endurance with a flat bar?
G-MB?
Rim brakes will rule again.
There is a middle ground in the bike world, so much attention is on either cheap chinese or overpriced main stream. But look closer to home and the UK have many great affordable brands. Kinesis, Genesis, Fairlight, Mason, all great brands at more affordable prices.
Oh. This is an interesting topic for an another day. There are some good and very dodgy brands in that sphere.
👍
Bike matrix - doesn't help the retro or alternative guys, or the creative mix n match
I don't care what the bike industry does, I have my titanium custom made frame that I got just before Covid hit so the price was much better than they are today. The BB and headset are Chris King and have a lifetime warranty. I build my own wheels. All things being considered I don't have to care about the market and what it's doing. I do predict Shimano will be lowering prices because the Japanese economy is tanking right now and demand for $4000 groupsets is going down plus the Chinese groups coming on strong. I also think there will be a lot of RUclips channels about cycling tech dying out because it won't be a money maker or worth the amount of work it takes to produce ongoing content.
Belt drive from one of the big brands for 2025?
I wouldn't hang my hat on AI being impartial. Before long, these apps and outfits will be bought out by the likes of Trek, Specialized, Gaint, or Pon.
The entire industry is fighting tooth and nail for customers. They won't allow for 3rd party impartial algorithms to dictate your bike purchase. Hasnt worked in the auto industry either.
I think you could be right. The only thing I can think of that might stop that is the rapid uptake of users and the owners of the apps making more money than those big brands can offer. It’s a tall ask.
I think we'll see more 'complete bikes' from China, and a recognised brand using a Chinese groupset - rather than one of the big 3, or should i say 2...
Yeah. I think we could see an LT-woo on a spech. Their CEO was famously pictured on the stand at euro bike.
I think ebike sales will continue to ramp up. I have only my anecdotal observations as follows. Many people my age (64) enjoy getting out and about in the countryside. An ebike gives freedom to quietly explore and its a relatively inexpensive mode of transport. So many of my peers have lost fitness but still want to go offroad. Thankfully im not in that place (yet) and am about to buy a 'cross bike to hit trails as fast as i can.
Big cycle stores will continue to offer 30% discounts on "last years bike models" to offload inventory. I wish all the best for all bike shops in 2025
EBikes are defo going to grow in popularity. Especially city and MTB.
Someone is going to develop a bicycle that is more aero than a TT bike, more comfortable than a beach cruiser, and safer than a road bike.
Well, develop is probably not the right word since a bike like that already exists, and was banned by the UCI in 1934 because it was beating the pants off everything else and the UCI was scared that such a fast bike was going to kill its riders, which is why everyone now rides road bikes.
i would like the government to finally allow throttles on e-bikes to go 15.5 mph
This won’t happen until batteries are better regulated first.
@@Mapdec it is already been talked about in government just needs passing. nothing to do with batteries
@ I just don’t think it will pass until the house fires stop. The car lobby will focus on any excuse to keep them off the road.
@@Mapdec there are more sales of e-bikes and with all cars having to soon be electric the car industry has bigger problems. also it helps with safety because it means turning at junctions, would be easier to get up to speed having turned into traffic.
They need to increase the speed to 20mph, some roads are 20nph, this might or might not help the follow if traffic
I received my very first set of Chinees wheels yesterday (8Lien L5W), these wheels are awesome, they are super lite (1220g), just the right amount of stiffness and the killer part is they only cost me $1.1k shipped to Hawaii!! These wheels outshine my Zipp 303 & 404 Firecrest wheels.
Everything is awesome out of the box. It’s kind of my point.
Only $1.1k !!! Bargain!!!
I wouldn’t trust what ingredients go in a $10 Chinese meal, let alone a Chinese made bicycle or EV.
Yes. Trust is a large hurdle they must overcome.
Chinese wheels are better, I just ordered a pair of chinese wheels at 50mm deep with a 24mm internal 30mm external, sapim cx ray spokes, sapim brass nipples and a hub with the same design as dt swiss hubs with a total weight of 1315g all for the price of £650 delivered, and if your still a western hub fan for £900 you could have dt swiss 240 hubs.
‘Better’ you mean ‘cheaper’. To say better you will need to qualify what attribute you feel is better.
@Mapdec well from a performance point of view they're lighter and are wider meaning 28mm tires are more aero optimised. The spokes are all perfectly tensioned and the hub is just as easy to service as a dt Swiss hub. So yes a better wheel for the money or just a better wheel.
@ lol
Western brands would rather close the doors for good than lower their prices admitting they messed up..
Haha. Maybe.
I wouldn't trust anything current AI served me. Good for research but too unreliable, 'hallucinates' etc
Gemini (and probably other AI as well, dunno, didn't try many) - are really really untrustworthy. Try yourself. Try comparing some products (a TV, a HUB, a Tablet or anything else). Then go and search for info Gemini spits out yourself. The information is often inaccurate or really old. I lost trust in the tool completely after 2-3 occasions. Gemini is still good for other tasks tho.