I work at a research lab in modeling. There are climate modeling researchers here as well. They recently put out a paper that the problem with the models is the modeling of clouds. And yes, there are problems with the models. There is a famous quote in scientific modeling: “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.” Thus far, climate models are not very useful.
Do you factor in geoengineering weather weapons? Like the H.A.A.R.P. facility in Alaska? Or cloud seeding like China did with the Beijing Olympics so it wouldnt rain during the games, it caused flooding elsewhere though. Cloud seeding has been in use since the 1940's. Weather weapons are real as there is a UN treaty in effect since 1978 banning there use on other nations. Are these things what throw your climate models so far out and the reason for the extreme weather conditions? It would fit the WEF climate change agenda bs and the UN Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development. To the Elite globalists our population is not Sustainable. The WEF slogan is - 2030 You Will Own Nothing and You Will be Happy. Its war on the world population starting with the West. The aim of the extreme weather is to destroy the food crops worldwide.
Yet the 'chicken little' woke are using models to make their claim of a climate emergency, these alarmists need to be shut down. It is ridiculous how they claim Co and CO2 would be a problem to plant life, when palio records compare the current as being low, therefore having more carbon would offset this cooling trend of a solar minimum.
Environment Canada's climate model, was foisted on an unsuspecting public in 1999. They gave 7 dire warnings about climate catastrophes that would occur in the next twenty years. They included crop failures in the prairies, dangerously high sea levels and a huge spike in urban heat-related fatalities. Not one of their predictions happened....not one. I've yet to see one that was accurate.
Nobody has commented on the Hunga Tonga volcano, a submarine volcano which spewed massive amounts of sulphur into the atmosphere. This has caused spectacular red & orange sunsets. The sulphur has also caused a change in our weather patterns causing heavy rainfall to areas like Australia.
Back in the nineties they pointed to Mt. Pinatubo! See! It’s a volcano not us! Humans would never destroy their own nest due to greed and shortsightedness. It’s an argument for the denying faithful.
@@AlexYounger Greed has no guardrails. The elite may already know a new oil free technology/powergrid is in the pipeline,-ha, but the dominoes for self-destruction are already starting to fall.
@@AlexYounger Why did Honga blow when it did, might it just be a feed back mechanism? Oh no, it does not result in runaway warming for the heating cult faithful. You see we can do just the same as what you do.
The problem is not that all climate models are wrong to one degree or another, but that governments seem to make policy based on models that are consistent only in their failure.
This!!!! 100000% "well they have all been wrong 100% before... But I'm sure they will be right going forward sooo we will just keep pushing the disaster narrative to create more funding and and of course control"
Climate models may be good for some things like predicting regional shifts in temperature and moisture, but they have significant simplifications when it comes to the specifics of modeling the GHG effect as it warms the Earth. They get their GHG temperature predictions very wrong. We are getting interest from people trying a REVOLUTIONARY free Excel-based calculator that can be downloaded anonymously from our website. It embeds detailed physics equations and absorption data tables for the greenhouse gas effect so the user can precisely obtain the change in Earth’s temperature when GHG levels change for any change analysis scenario the user wants to solve. It simultaneously solves the equations for any mixture change of CO2, CH4, N2O and H2O. People who’ve tried it are enthused because the good-news results are significantly less pessimistic than the popular belief in the media.
The puzzle is how did humans think that the weather would just float along and never change when the history of our planet tells us we've gone through flooding and ice ages more than once...
This is how we run across places where there's been buildings and then the people disappear but there's really not that many bones. Where did they go? They got up and moved because the weather conditions were unfavorable for their continued existence. Well that and wars, plagues and volcanoes. We live on a living planet it changes on a regular basis...we're just learning how to see it on a worldwide view.
Because they don't teach history anymore. I was laughing when everyone started screaming about the polar ice caps and permafrost were melting, and then reports of boats, villages, people found in them.... permafrost is not so permanent.... that means there was not ice there at one point. History shows every 500 years the earth goes hot or cold, every 1000 years it's more extreme. It's always changing, we only In the last 40 years have been able to see it world wide.
Exactly. The climate is changing all the time, always has. It's shear arrogance to think we can create models that predict the outcomes of a nonlinear chaotic system. There's a lot of evidence that the world is going to cool, the best we can do is watch and learn... and adapt to the changes as we've always done 🤔
@@martinbaker613 What gets me is the people that think that they can actually control nature...it's such a joke...we can't even predict it accurately let alone control it!
And we've had CO2 increase to 400ppm before...except it happened over hundreds of thousands of years not over 200 years since the industrial revolution...get real people, this climate change isn't just "weather" doing its thing...this sudden increase gives nature (and us) no time to adapt...
Don’t be fooled by this lack of knowledge and research the wet weather is caused by the volcano erupting in Tonga in January of this year, you can find information about it on RUclips
Sandy, that’s because people hear what they want to hear, and draw conclusions based on what they remember- not what was actually presented. As a result, govt forgoes all the details and gives us just what the point is that should be remembered. (By the way, you likely remember this is also what the religious leadership did in the “dark ages” as well.)
Is it refreshing for someone to describe predictable cycles of climate change that have been functioning in essentially the same manner, with slight fluctuations any reasonable person would expect to occur in any natural phenomenon ... cyclical weather patterns, Polar bear numbers {significantly larger in recent years, btw, but merely a continuance of a steady, persistent, & confounding INCREASE in the world's population of large arctic mammals from the Orsine family, I haven't heard much about Grissly Bear numbers, or the smaller Black, & Brown bear species commonly found throughout the woodlands, & the many prominant mountain ranges that dominate the landscape of the US, & Canada, but you probably won't hear much about any bear species suffering from the catastrophic effects of refrigeration, home cooked meals, clean clothes, long distance travel, making roughly 1/3 of the US, & Nearly all of Canada capable of supporting human habitation, & don't forget nearly all agricultural production, & large scale food processing {think grape nuts, beer, & tortillas of significant scale, with a few notable exceptions, I-RONICALLY ENOUGH, meat, dairy, eggs: cattle-hogs-chicken
When it comes to these "human created climate change" narrative computer models, one thing I was taught about computer programming when I went to college 40 years ago, one saying come to mind.... "Garbage in, garbage out".
Yep and they don't work when they go backwards ie there are 4 interglacial warm periods in the last million years that were much warmer than our current interglacial warm period but that they can't predict these with the models because the co2 levels were around 250ppm, low co2 with high temperatures totally buggers up the models.
Million years? 😂 that's a lie Science recently found out we have a young earth. Look it up! Secular science tries hard to make it millions when it's not, it's only thousands of years old
Look in your mirror for garbage and understanding I see. For the past 50 years the climate models, within statistical error bounds, have predicted warming and the measurements each and every year show WARMING. You are either just a God Damned LIAR or a bot, which?
It was not until the 1980s that warming due to CO2 began to become evident in the instrumental temperature above the background of natural forcings. That was predicted by Hansen et al in a 1981 paper. Their model has stood the test of time. pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1981/1981_Hansen_ha04600x.pdf Other data, such as sea level goes back longer. climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
@@pshehan1 Whatever. As if the world was supposed to stay the same temperate forever. Hahaha. No emergency, just a cutback on some chemical uses. Which is why the ozone layer is reportedly 'healing'. All this 'Climate Change' hysteria is just political. An attempt to push the free world into Socialism / Communism.
@@GB-gf3dm The temperature was not going to stay the same forever. That is no reason for humans to change it now. The climate had been relatively stable for the 12,000 years of the holocene when agriculture, human populations, infrastructure including coastal cities developed where they are until the industrial revolution began adding CO2 to the atmosphere, raising it by 50% so far, from 280 to 420 ppm, and increasing the temperature by 1.3 C so far and currently rising at an accelerating rate of 0.2 C per decade. The same science which correctly predicted that predicts the disastrtous consequences if that continues. That is not politics. It is fact.
I have spent nearly four decades building math models in numerous industries, One conclusion comes to mind when I read about climate models: the most important things in a model are those it doesn't contain.
The accuracy of any good model depends on including as many variables as possible. In most climate models, the include between 4 and 6 variables when they should be basing them on 15-16 different criteria. The unfortunate truth is that they tend eliminate the variables that don't result in the desired outcome, which clearly undermines the scientific method at it's foundation.
@@Martin.Wilson You have a GREAT start but since I am not a scientist of any caliber, could there be even MORE criteria or variables to be considered?? PEACE!
@ Jacek.... GREAT COMMENT! Maybe somebody had better get the quantum computers working on this instead of asking, WHY IS THERE AIR?" ( or other irrelevant nonsense) PEACE!
@@jtc1947 Absolutely. The more comprehensive the model is, in terms of variables, the more accurate it is likely to be. One of the most important criterion that is often overlooked are the Milankovitch cycles which can cause variations of up to 25 percent in the amount of incoming solar radiation at Earth’s mid-latitudes. In fact, the Milankovitch cycles were crucial in triggering the numerous ice ages throughout Earth's geological past.
@@Martin.Wilson I was amazed about the precession (?? Is that the correct term? concerning the difference in the % of how the EARTH is actually facing the sun. Seems that Our planet has quite a bit of wobble and the "orientation" can vary so much. To the point that 20 K years ago the SAHARA was a lush paradise.
Here in South East QLD Australia it has been a cool spring and we’re loving it!! The regular wet days have been great for filling up the water tanks on our property but we’re looking forward to a change back to drier conditions. For those is who have lived in Australia for more than 30 years you know Australia is the land of weather extremes and it’s our normal. It’s very sad to hear so many teenagers are convinced that every weather event in Australia is catastrophic climate change and yet haven’t bothered to research the history of Australian weather!!
Very interesting to hear about your weather in Australia. I had no ideas that floods were an issue for your continent as I thought of Australia as a fairly dry continent. Thanks for your comment!
Love your channel. Super interesting content and your presentation style & voice are excellent. Glad I found you. Keep it up, your information is fascinating!
@@keng7758 Various parts of Australia flood regularly. Most are in areas that have very few people so do not make the news as no infrastructure is destroyed and no deaths result. Yet as soon as the East gets a flood all the climate change nutters come out stating it is proof of catastrophic Climate Change. Sadly, a simple search of historical records would inform them that such floods are normal and have occurred for all recorded time in Australia usually occurring every 50 years or so. Sometimes they are late coming and sometimes early but they are normal and nothing to do with GW/CC. One of the reasons the models are wrong is that they are not adjusted for local weather patterns nor updated for actual data since modelling began. They still use data which failed to manifest over the last 40-50 years and therefore are based on false premise. As an example they are based on a constant annual rise in temperatures yet all actual data over the last 50 years shows the annual change indeed changes each and every year. This means if the models are not adjusted each and every year the predictions are based on patently False data and should not even be looked at as a guide to future weather. Yet governments worldwide spend Billions/Trillions based on this inaccurate and false modelling. They tell us to follow the science but are themselves NOT following science but agendas. Point it out and unfortunately you get labelled a denier etc by all the cultists following the GW/CC cults. If you print poor science then expect that science to be challenged and proven incorrect.
@@saintsone7877 That unfortunately is totally incorrect. Australia's annual average temperature has increased over the last 100 years by 1.44 degrees C. Some years (like La Nina years) buck the trend. Average rainfall has been roughly the same but the the rainfall distribution has shifted markedly. The North being generally wetter and the South increasingly drier. Again individual years, particularly La Nina ones, buck the trend. Now, the models have their limitations in predicting what and exactly where the impacts of global warming will be. What they haven't got wrong is that global warming continues to trend upwards and that the result is an increase in intensity of severe weather events. That's why records continue to be broken. This video did not suggest that climate change isn't a serious issue as you are making out. Models have been updated with improved scientific knowledge and actual measurements, I've been following the subject since the mid 90's, but it's an ongoing process.
@@tonyclayton6975 Tony, those increases you mention. Is that before or after they amended temperatures? You were aware that approximately 2000 temperatures per year are amended downwards on temperatures from 1900-2000 by an average 2-4C and please don't respond and say they do not as it is easy to verify(if you are willing to do the legwork). Go to the BOM records and input temps for 1900-1970 for any days you choose. Then go to that town/cities local library and look at historical newspapers temps for the corresponding days and viola, the Bom temps are lower for those days than the newspapers which are the actual temps for that day. Sad to think you say you have followed it since the 1990's yet are unaware of this falsification of historical records by the BOM. You possibly also do not remember the climate scientist who caught the BOM falsifying temps in Canberra during winter. The ABC was showing the temps at a certain spot in Canberra whilst a scientist had temp equipment on that mountain area showing much colder temperatures. She rang the ABC and informed them their semaphored temps were wrong and lo and behold shortly after they disappeared from screen with apologies and the excuse gauges etc were malfunctioning. A week later she repeated the process and caught them with wrong temps again. Just shows the lengths they go to to falsify data. Watch your smartphone closely daily and you can see the temps vary between devices by up to 2C daily yet annual changes are in thousands of a degree over the last 10 years. And the average temperature of the earth is not very warm at all is it Tony? Yet we get told a 2-5C increase will be a catastrophe when anyone with intelligence knows this is poppycock. Far more people die in cold temperatures today than in warm temperatures around the world and if one compares the numbers of people dying due to weather related incidents 100 years ago and today it was far higher 100 years ago than today. CC/GW is a scam pure and simple. Where are the 500+million climate refugees that was supposed to begin around year 2000 Tony? That is what they predicted back in the 1970's/80's. Is the Sydney Opera House going to be under water by 2025 Tony due to sea level rising? Now they claim it will be by 2075. These are the people you call experts yet every prediction they have made since the 1970's where they gave an event and date has failed to materialise. NOT 1 has materialised Tony out of hundreds. That says it all Tony. But you can go on believing your doomsdayers nonsense. Oh, and by the way Tony, they told us 20+ years ago Australia would NEVER EVER get rains like in the past. Each and EVERY year would become drier and DRIER until eventually we ran out of water in our dams etc. Yet here we are Tony 20 or so years later getting record rainfall and dams overflowing. Just another prediction they got totally incorrect yet now they have the temerity to say it is CC/GW that is causing the rains they said would never come again due to CC/GW. The goalposts change everytime their data proves to be false Tony. That is not science my friend but cultism.
The Tongan underwater volcano eruption put massive amounts of moisture into the atmosphere and has effected the winds in the Indian ocean holding back the cycling patterns of the antarctic winds so ive seen. Which meant the exagerration of la nina on eastern Australia.
The ENSO oscillations are amazingly impactful where I used to live on the Peruvian coast, especially the northwest. Normally it is bone dry with barely an overcast sky to feed the cactus some drops of moisture. But when El Niño kicks in (which I believe gets its name specifically from Peru in Colonial times when the phenomenon would occur during Christmas and the birth of "El Niño") it starts to pour for months, washing out all of the bridges with flooding stranding coastal dwellers for months because their roads no longer function. The farmers plant rice of all things and the ocean is a balmy 75F, as opposed to the normal 65F. These are huge changes that have been occurring since time immemorial. Of course California is on a draught/rain cycle as well tied to these currents. Pretty much every region in the world is impacted, from the looks of it. My interest in El Niño started out of following surf reports, which are ultimately driven by big storms, which get bigger during El Niño because more heat means more energy. The other part of ENSO that is worth noting is that it is only really predictable maybe 6 months out. We know it oscillates, we know the range, we know some of the effects, but we can't predict with any precision what it will be doing in a year or two years or ten. The climate models are a bust on that. There is also strong evidence that undersea volcanic activity creates "hot spots" that influence ocean temperatures, currents and thus, ENSO. These are necessarily stochastic in nature and thus cannot be modeled or predicted. These could explain anomalous years that break earlier patterns.
I have been pretending in schools many times that I understood El Nino and La Nina pattern ,however even today it is more complicated than I thought .It is fascinating the effect on global weather system .thank you for illustrations
Check out the forcast videos from Eric Snodgras. He's a meteorologist with Nutrian Ag Solutions {also the YT channel name} and is very good at explaining things and helping teach people to understand how the patterns work. You really begin to understand how weather forecasting works.
Ask mathematicians about modeling a chaotic system like the climat. Sensitivity of any chaotic system to parameters adjustements is huge. In any case, we'll have confirmation/denial for models predictions in years 2050 or 2100, so be patient.
the Tongan volcano add the la Nina sam and wa dipole..... this is the reason its already been put out there.....this is alarmism... el Nino is drought la Nina wet..... ask the black fellas like us we taught the government about this in the 50s.....
I see the problem. Climate models are created for political reason NOT science. Who pay the money get to decide what factor to use, what factor to ignore and therefore what result it will get.
Thanks rob, I agree with that. I live in Auckland and we've been experiencing until very recently cool winds from the south that were lowering the daytime temperature noticeably two or three degrees C. I'd read in one of digital science mags that the Tongan submarine volcano had thrown up enough sea water to increase the global amount of water vapour in the atmosphere (stratosphere?) by around 10 percent. That's quite a lot! Additionally, it had also thrown up a fair amount of sulphur dioxide and ash. "The plume was composed primarily of water with some ash and sulfur dioxide mixed in, said atmospheric scientist Simon Proud, lead author of the research published in the journal Science. Eruptions from land-based volcanoes tend to have more ash and sulfur dioxide and less water" - Reuters. The water vapour will fall out quickly enough, and the sulphur and ash is expected to cool global temperature for maybe 3 or 4 years starting in the southern hemisphere, and already crossing the equator to the northern. Research is going on to confirm this or otherwise. Meanwhile anthropogenic GHG emissions and climate heating with the ensuing chaos continue unabated. It's as though an umbrella has been temporarily put up to reflect some of the incoming solar radiation, but we'll see soon enough I guess.
It seems the weather systems combined to create something of a perfect storm for Australia but added to this was the undersea volcanic eruption near Tonga in January 2022 that put an estimated trillion tonnes of water into the stratosphere that has increased the availability of moisture to add to the rainfall over Australia. Models can’t predict these events.
And volcanoes are movers of climate - that much we know... and we cannot control. Watch the documentary "536 AD: The Worst Year In History?" on RUclips.. you may realize that the climate's movers are beyond our control.
Things that occur outside of these events also come into play, such as the Tonga volcano that erupted, that is literally where El Nino or la nina sits off the east coast of Oz. The heat and sulphur etc was mostly in the ocean which did alter la nina and el nino plus the Antarctic southern dipole so much this caused the flooding.
All our energy is from the Sun.on Earth weather is from it.Heat below the crust is doing what it has todo.The Sun getting too much energy from the ( Cosmic Cloud);stated byNASA we are passing through. Sun gets too much, ,we get too much. Work it out,we are cooking off our ice everywhere on Earth. Melting perma frost (/from below) methane out of melt and volcanic pressure relief world wide.
35 years ago they did a study of cores samples that were taken from the bottom of the Atlantic an Pacific Oceans. They looked at the plankton layers and came to the conclusion that right after every global warming event, there was a catastrophic ice age.
YUP! ITS ALL 'CYCLICAL' IS MY BELIEF. LIFE IS NOTHING BUT CYCLES. ROUND AND ROUND WE GO!! I WILL NEVER BUY " CLIMATE CHANGE" ALL BULLS💩💩T.....LITERALLY...AND GAS!!!! TOOT- TOOT!!😂
Yep, and according to some esoteric circles, this is a normal cycle that happened before and will happen again. It should be on us in around ten-twelve years or so. However, it is predicted as not to be catastrophic, but just dammed cold, very cold in fact, and for two or three generations. Get your fireplaces and firewood ready, electricity networks will fail on the northern parts of the Northern Hemisphere!
@ ERIC.... A long time ago when I was STILL in school, there seemed to be the idea that ANOTHER ice age or Mini-ICE age might be in our future? Maybe people should lay in their long johns??
Did they really need to look at plankton layers, did you say? Was it somewhere around 35 years ago ... this scouring the 2 largest oceans on the planet, but I guess they're boring down through the sea bed. getting some nice historic depositions of plankton over time, most recent layers are on top, & the lower you go ... seems pretty clear, huh Eric ... 5 yesrs ago, plankton dies, floats ever so slowly, lands on the sea floor, plankton keeps floating, barely moving, but "DOWN ... goes ... Frazier! ... sorry it's a boxing fight call. Probably the most famous heavey weight championship bout, between Fazier, & Muhamed Ali ... for the belt, Ali won I'm pretty sure, to either maintain his, "Heavy Weight Champion of the Woorold!" title, or win it back, but I don't think Frazier ever did Beat Ali, not while he was still the Champ, George Frazier was a punishing puncher, & dominated virtually all of the early rounds, til about 8, & round 9, Ali wasn't winning those rounds either, but Frazier was starting to wear himself out from aggressively going on offense for the first half, & throwing so many punches, Ali didn't block many of them either, except with gut, & his head. A few times Ali did bob, & weave to avoid a couple of hard rights that could have knocked him clean out, so he did what he needed to do to keep going, & keep fightin' but Eric I'll bring this back to these less than honest, & misguided, or terribly misinformed "activists" we should call them, because they are always DEMANDING their government take this action NOW! or Net Zero by 2030! You all have to STOP using fossil fuels by 2025, or we'll glue ourselves to the pavement of a major Interstate, at least 4 lanes of Highway, maybe we'll block traffic going in both directions so that would be 4 ... 5 .. 6, hmm ... So is 8 after 6, or did I count wrong? I know I was told to threaten you horrible evil people ... who just want to kill grandma ... with you gas heaters in the Winter, & Grandma's cleaner burning natural gas for cooking, & heating, & hot water for washing her clothes, & doing the dishes, and shouldn't she get hot shower once, or twice a week weeknext month! action, & these climate hysteria of the out was very close in the fight I spoofed the great Howard Cossel's inflection, quick cadence & nasal whinedown like the biggest snowfall in hidtory top layer the older the layers of plankton laid down
A first-time watcher who loves natural processes, which should keep all of us humble. I did enjoy your unbiased thought-provoking insights. Have not read any comments yet but there is a theory on RUclips that the massive Tongan Volcano has "turbo-charged" this year's La Nino effects for eastern Oz by releasing incredible amounts of water blown into our atmosphere and beyond (?) Personally, I'm impressed by how accurate forecasts usually are with all the variables at play. Especially down here in the SW Pacific with the roaring forties in play plus the odd ex-tropical cyclone. Christchurch NZ is set to break quite a number of rainfall records this year, but luckily nowhere near as crazy as Oz. I do look forward to watching your next video.
I'm in New Zealand, on the east coast of the South Island, which is known for being dry. In my lifetime I've seen changes, as a kid in the 80's just about every summer was drought conditions....great for harvesting crops but you needed irrigation to grow them in the first place. The last time we had a summer like that was 2014-15. Now irrigation doesn't seem as important, but grain dryers are as it's getting harder to dry crops out in the field.
I was just about to post a comment in a similar vein, but saw your comment, which by the way has top billing at the moment for this video. Apart from some flooding and slips, I think that for the last two years the weather here in NZ has been quite good because overall it has probably been good for agriculture and has kept the hydro lakes full.
@@Roger_Gadd I worry as similarly here in Europe, winters have been just cold enough to sustain Alpine economies. We may experience a very steep change if El Nino comes back with very warm winter in Europe and reading your comments, very dry summer in your region.
@@alexdubois6585 Yes, the El Nino weather pattern is a problem for NZ. As Pete mentioned, it was prevalent in the 1980s. I did a bit of unrelated analysis a few days ago, and interestingly, NZ farm animal biomass may have peaked in about 1986, and NZ farm animal methane emissions certainly peaked that year. But I suspect that the complete removal of farm subsidies here then may be what ultimately led to our reduction in farm methane emissions.
@@Roger_Gadd On the animal biomass, it's interesting that you say it peaked around 1986, because in Canterbury a lot of those mixed sheep/cropping farms which required irrigation in the 80s, but not so much now, have mostly become dairy farms. With the more regular summer rainfall we're now getting (plus irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer) those farms have way more animal biomass than back then....I guess one region doesn't represent the whole country.
As a resident of South East Qld I can see the result of your studies. We have been complaining about the colder wet summers for the last couple of years. Whereas we used to have top Summer temps of around 40C as a norm I don't think it got above 33C last year at all here. We had so many grey skies it was more like living in England than Australia lol. The only real advantage of it was the dams were all full. Thank you for this posting I found it informative and interesting.
Definitely went over 40 where I live in SEQ both last summer and the one before, hit 33 here just last week and we are not even in summer yet. The rain has been good I hope it stays
Just a note, whilst Sydney received record year of rain, Easter Australia and Australia overall had more rain over the three years 1973, 74 & 75. 2050, 2056, 2010 & 2011 were also much wetter. Just because the biggest city experiences unusual high rainfall, the past 3 years are by no means out of the norm for Australia. Feel free to get all the data directly from BOM site
So... almost a quarter of the way into the 21st century and we've only seen one instance of an event that only happened four times last century; truly astounding.
@@Tqoratsos666 Um, no. Go back and listen again at 1:19. The speaker is referring to the count of La Nina periods equal to or exceeding 3 years since 1900. I did make a minor error in my statement, in that i referred to last century, whereas the speaker was actually referring to the entire period since 1900, though it's not clear to me from looking at the actual data if he's counting the current event as one of the ones since 1900. Again, given that 24 La Nina events have occurred in the 123 years since the start of 1900, comprising 58 years in that period and most of them go for 2-3 years, I'm really not sure what point is being made, which was the general thrust of my original comment. I'm also not sure how to reconcile the statement with the actual data when you go and look at it, but I'm not going to go into that here.
Lake George near Canberra is full for the first time in decades after three years of good rain. It is often completely empty during drought. Back in the 1870s however it was twice as full so can't imagine how much rain was received back then before reliable rain records were held. There is a sign at a rest stop on the lake that indicates the level of the water at the time.
Tell why carbon reductuction emission and CHEMTRAILS on the sky why? Are the power to be use the bast solution for human race ? Why people keep quiet and put up with everything and use starvation ,wars instead best solution? Because nobody have the brain to go take places and take the power away from parasites of this planet Banking Cartel.
I'm surprised no one here talk about of geoengineering programs. I have been back from a trip to Europe for a few weeks and I guarantee you that they sprayed the skies every day
In primary school in the 70s we taught that the earth is slowly cooling . We also learned about a Herman Milankovich and orbital changes and how it effects climate.
Using GIS to factor in bathometry, topography and vegetation cover would help integrate variability and also the calibration of models using weather instruments can help identify some of the local variance at play to feed into the model
When I was growing up, meteorologists were a bit of a joke because it was the only profession where people could be wrong 90% of the time and still keep their jobs. On the rare occasion meteorologists spoke about weather beyond local reports it was all about the coming Ice Age. Fast forward 30 years and the Weather Channel has turned meteorology into one of the most highly respected professions out there. They're like soothsayer rockstars now, complete with their dour predictions and over-hyped weather events. The joke now is that every new weather pattern is given a kitschy name that sounds like a pro wrestler's finishing move. "He's got him in the Polar Vortex! Here come the Bomb Cyclone! It's over!!!"
I too remember that coming ice age. It was a wee bit of a 'thing' at the time, but with no world-wide-web it wasn't open to everybody - and only the cognoscenti were interested anyway (the rest of us read the girlie magazines. I did too, but I actually read both).
Meteorologists work with short term localized weather. Climatologists are scientists who work with long term cycles and trends. Listening to meteorologists about coming ice ages is like listening to your step brother who drives a tank for the army about his predictions on Russia's longer term strategic goals in Europe and then saying the military doesn't know anything when he's wrong. The consensus among climatologists for the past 100 years has been that the earth is warming regardless of what local meteorologists or news reporters said.
@@DRAT311 I thought climatology was a field within meteorology, kind of like how aerospace and nuclear engineering are fields within mechanical and/or electrical engineering. (But don't tell aerospace or nuclear engineers that!) Regardless, I was really just taking shots at the ever-increasing hyperbole coming from The Weather Channel.
@@DRAT311 My issue is that they are probably lying through their teeth. It not that I don't believe in Climate change. I believe in Climate Change. I just think it's not going along with their models and they can't figure out why. I think it's warming MUCH slower than they believe. CO2 is a green house gas. And we pump a couple billion tons of it into the atmosphere on an annual basis. But there should have been Congressional hearings and funding cut the second it became knowledge that NOAA was purposefully putting thermometers in black top parking lots to inflate the data.
When I was a child, the nightly weather forecast said we were going to have a dusting of snow. When I woke up in the morning and looked outside, there was almost 2 feet on the ground. 😅
I live in the riverina region and we just had two days of greater than 40mm rain....school cancelled, floods abound, severe thunderstorms all over the place. Interesting things to note, The Bureau here in Australia is investigating an upper level wind pattern which was noted over us last time rains like this occurred - lasting approx 10 years - the 1970's - when we flooded like this. I remember this period from my childhood with the 1974 floods. Adding to this was an exceptionally good snow season in the ranges that have filled the river systems. Lookin like we will get another Antarctic cold snap this week with more snow, very unseasonal. We still have a lot to learn about our weather patterns. On a side note, evidence of an inland sea is on the archaeological and aboriginal record here in Australia and is currently being investigated. The thoughts are that significant weather systems are the only way this could have occurred, so the future may hold some interesting discoveries on our weather patterns.
I am in NE Tassie, and I agree with your thoughts. The current weather patterns seen almost identical to the weather during the seventies, when it was almost too wet here to farm. Definitely seems that we still have a lot to learn about the Earth's weather.
Let's face it we don't have a friggen clue how long any patterns are and as they are only one part of what makes up climate chaos ... but those who "have the science " can pretty much make anything up and change their minds as fast as the weather, while claiming "that's what I've been saying all along". The truth is, we are babes in the woods, like it or not.
like a tsunami. tide goes away befor all the water comes in. 2019 the tide was out. you guys wanted rain. 2019 convinced the most of you that man made climate change put yenz in a severe droubt. well so you got all the rain you ever wanted now lol.. whats thats saying?? careful whatchu wish for. seems to be a real kick in the nuts, doesn't it?
Pretty much an identical story for me on the NSW/ Vic border. Everything is sodden. The river systems are well and truely over full. Like the poem says “a land of droughts and flooding rains”.
A reminder that the correct approach is to always be a servant to reality, even though models and patterns help. And FWIW here in Brisbane, most years I've found that a chance of rain means it probably won't rain. We've had a few years though where a chance of rain means it probably will rain.
Excellent presentation that is understandable for most people and makes us rather curious for the future. What is causing the strange weather pattern off the west coast of South America? That is a question I look forward to hearing the answer to. My request is to explain the weather patterns we're seeing in British Columbia. In 2021 and 2022 we had the highest temperatures ever recorded here, some of the worst fires and then late Fall flooding that was unprecedented in scale and actually cut Vancouver off from the the rest of Canada and USA.
So Aus needs multi-year water storage. When the 'dry' comes again, she will be bemoaning the lack of water. The only place to store that water is underground and the logical location is in the gigantic aquifers in the outback. More systems on the scale of the Snowy Mountain project are needed.
@@1EARTHARCHITECT . That's basically a gigantic evaporation pond, being a salt lake, which is only a few feet deep. & It's in the middle of nowhere. That's a crazy idea.
I've been living in Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, for over 55 years now and I keenly have accompanied weather pattern changes in my local area. During El Niño years (80s e 90s), summers were extremely hot (36+ C temperatures) with nearly sudden deluges and winters were mild with very dry conditions with occasional cold fronts (18 C) coming from the South and snowfalls in the southern tip of Brasil. During these 3 consecutive La Niña years, it was very difficult to tell winters from summers in Rio. It is like La Niña bucked the trends. The weather was quite balmy year-round, which means summers were on the very warm (32 C) range but not as hot as during El Niño years and winters (26 C) much warmer than average (22 C). This year of 2022, the winter season (Jun/Sep) was remarkably warmer with almost no cold fronts, some subtropical cyclones to the South and this Spring (Sep/Nov) has been exceptionally cool in Rio with even some cold snaps and beats me (blimey!) even a snowfall in early November at the southern tip of Brasil for the first time in recorded history. All in all, we're experiencing warmer than average yearly temperatures with a decline in average precipitation but with no extremes either on winter and summer. During El Niño years, Rio was in chaos during summer time due to heavy rainfall. As we're experiencing La Niña for over 3 consecutive years people have altogether forgotten global warming down south here. This is how "I feel the weather". I've been reading thermometers and observing weather during all these decades! :~)
I dont know where you live in rio, but never been so cold here . In copacabana / ipanema I never used jackets in winter , maybe one or 2 days, now have used even in October. Plus much less beach days this last 2 years. Summer being less warm and winter / fall / autumm much colder.
I’ve noticed something similar here in my part of the Mid Atlantic US. Winters have been mild enough that I don’t need my snowblower and summers are not as hot. There hasn’t been a string of days in the 100’s F and the week of bitter cold in January is gone too.
As a 80yo Australian I can assure you the La Nina currently being experienced is nothing out of the box. It maybe bit stronger than run of the mill La Ninas but nothing extraordinary. The La Nina to La Nina cycle, with intervening El Ninos typically lasts 10-15 years. I can recall at least four strong La Ninas in my lifetime. Like previous strong La Ninas, this one is likely to end suddenly with the outbreak of a Kelvin Wave off the Pacific coast of Ecuador. My expectation is this will happen within twenty four months and that within forty eight months Australia will be in grip of drought and heat waves arising from a strong El Nino cycle. Meanwhile a curious aspect of the current La Nina is that global sealevels are likely to drop measurably as many cubic kilometres of water are spread over the normally dry Australian continent.
@@secondotranquilli3973 I'm curious as to what's your age, level of education and what sex you identify as. As humans mature they on the average learn to value and respect the knowledge of elders.
The major influence on our weather is the sun. It has an eleven year cycle. Perhaps that solar cycle is what causes the La Nina and El Nino cycle. We are currently in the upswing of solar storm activity in the eleven year cycle.
I'm surprised you haven't made the connection of the Tonga eruption back in January, which sent ash and water vapor higher than most other volcanos in recorded history! This is certainly having a huge effect on the weather patterns, especially in the southern hemisphere. The loses in crop production will be very notable!!!!
The Tonga eruption is the reason the SAM has been driven persistently positive allowing wacky easterly winds to dump Pacific moisture across the east coast and east inlands; but generally speaking there's more heat in the entire system, warmer oceans increasing rains and under mining Antarctic ice-sheets allowing the great Antarctic glaciers to collapse a hundred times faster than they've been able to do during the past three million years.
a great video on the Tongan eruption in January 22 and the effect it might of had on the resent flooding in Victoria this year. ruclips.net/video/EZtRKbTdQVw/видео.html
As I live in Sydney Australia all I can add is it's not just the rain. It was preceded by bushfires and now an ongoing plague. No flooding problem for us thankfully. A lot of the flooding problems seem due to people being told it was OK to build in locations where it should have been obvious it wasn't. There's 10 year, 100 year and 1,000 year floods and probably 10,000 year ones. I think if you've got to ask "Does it flood here?", the answer is "Yes". Certainly part of the problem is Australia has a very flat interior skirted by not very high mountains which typically shield that area from rainfall however a lot of the rain that may fall on those mountains drains inland leading to places that have very low rainfall flooding.
That is the first thing I ask when looking for a place to live. "Does it flood here?" That simple question saves a lot of headache later. I live in the PH BTW where flooding is the rule and not the exception.
@@peterritchie5593 Well aware if that. Just because you just had one it does not mean you'll not have another one for 100 years. Unfortunately I cannot think of a better way to express what it tries to denote.
@@rogerknights857 We already have a lot of dams especially in the SNowy Mountains where the water is used for hydro, pumped hydro storage and irrigation. One problem is the scheme is jointly owned by Victoria and NSW. Add to that the conflict between water for irrigation and power generation and it's a real hot potato. That scheme is being upgraded to handle more pumped hydro energy storage. For the rest Sydney has a few dams and reservoirs to supply domestic water and there has been discussion about increasing the height of the spillway of one of them. The problem with anything West of Great Dividing Range is the country is very flat. There are some dams and weirs. Sure more would be good but we're really short of suitable locations.
If you're following your comment here then read this which explains video topic and is simple (faster big winds system. Something big with ENSO started 1995 but (this is important) I've not come across information whether it ended with 2015/16 big El Nino or whether it's stil existing as a long-term background trend. It's the warming tropical Atlantic Ocean surface as I've been informing in a comment since 2014. It's a classic power amplifier because tropical Pacific Ocean is 3.6 times as wide as tropical Atlantic Ocean. ---------------- It started 1995. By 2012 the tropical Pacific Ocean easterly wind was a massive 30% (1 metre / second) stronger than pre-1995. I've not yet found post 2012-2021 wind stress plot so I don't know whether the big 2015/16 El Nino was the end of the massive 17 to 20 year Trade Wind surge. ENSO is an utterly-vast feature of Earth's surface-air. ---------------- Quote: "Atlantic warming turbocharges Pacific trade winds Date:August 3, 2014 Source:University of New South Wales. New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s. The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001. It may even be responsible for making El Nino events less common over the past decade due to its cooling impact on ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. "We were surprised to find the main cause of the Pacific climate trends of the past 20 years had its origin in the Atlantic Ocean," said co-lead author Dr Shayne McGregor from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) atthe University of New South Wales." ---------------- Quote: "The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers. Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature. Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century. The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push. “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” says Professor Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Professor Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Professor England says." ---------------- Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus Nature Climate Change 4, 222-227 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 Received 11 September 2013 Accepted 18 December 2013 Published online 09 February 2014 Corrected online 14 February 2014 Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso "Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades-unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models-is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake."
Title "Are the climate models wrong??". In the case of this topic definitely yes per this published mainstream science following. Find quote "Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins" below because that's entirely what this video is about. --------- Quote: "Atlantic warming turbocharges Pacific trade winds Date:August 3, 2014 Source:University of New South Wales. New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s. The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001. It may even be responsible for making El Nino events less common over the past decade due to its cooling impact on ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. "We were surprised to find the main cause of the Pacific climate trends of the past 20 years had its origin in the Atlantic Ocean," said co-lead author Dr Shayne McGregor from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) atthe University of New South Wales." ---------------- Quote: "The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers. Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature. Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century. The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push. “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” says Professor Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Professor Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Professor England says." ---------------- Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus Nature Climate Change 4, 222-227 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 Received 11 September 2013 Accepted 18 December 2013 Published online 09 February 2014 Corrected online 14 February 2014 Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso Affiliations "Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades-unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models-is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake." --------- It started 1995. By 2012 the wind was a massive 30% (1 metre / second) stronger than pre-1995. I've not yet found post 2012 so I don't know whether the big 2015/16 El Nino was the end of the massive 17 to 20 year Trade Wind surge.
Twenty years ago I was watching the discovery channel and basically they were saying when fresh water increases in the ocean the water cools. This makes sense that if ice melts it adds fresh water to a point where the ocean will cool and ice in polar ice caps to expand. Then the salinity of the ocean will increase and cause a warm up which has probably been happening since the beginning of time.
You missed a third factor in the unusual rains in Australia this year, the Hunga Tonga volcanic explosion. The blast it caused shot 146 terragrams of water into the stratosphere, adding to the other two factors. Ash and water (there wasnt much ash from it but there was huge quantities of water) in the troposphere falls quickly and isnt a long term concern. But Hunga Tonga shot it so high it entered the stratosphere, and that takes years to remove. It has a greenhouse effect that added to the system that is causing this weather. Im not sure if all the data on it is out yet though.
Tornado's, hurricanes ,have a effect on our climate,so does the taconic plate movement,and so do earthquakes,volcano's,and birds flapping their wings on other side of the world ,awww joy of climate change,in truth nobody can really change any of it,but keep trying,we haven't been on earth that long,maybe we will go poof,or maybe not,but fun to waste money....
Yup, that is one thing climate change activists always over look. We've had 400 years of increasing volcanic activity which makes anything we humans put out for CO2 and green house gases look like a fart in the wind.
There is a famous poem written by Dorothea Mckellar. It begins: I love a sun burnt country, a land of sweeping plains of rugged mountain ranges of droughts and flooding rains... All Australian who have been here for a few generations know about the reference to droughts and flooding rains in her poem, because we experience them a few times in out lives. With El Nino, we can experience drought for 10 year stretches, and usually coupled with it, is plenty of bush fires. I prefer la Nina, but sometimes the amount of rain is equal to the tropics. Darwin (in the tropical zone), for example has an average rainfall of 2 metres per year, so Sydney has experienced that amount of rain already. It is worth noting that the Sydney sandstone geology was formed by high level and consistent erosion of some massively tall mountains, which have been replaced with the sandstone massifs now there. Nature is our master, humans in the face of it are insignificant. Adaptation to the extremes, is the best strategy.
Yes, it seems that people with an agenda are more than happy to restrict the scope or timescale to suit their arguments. Australia has always been a land of extremes. But sure, force us all back to serfdom.
@@guser7137 If you are talking about the fascist left yes we will all end up either dead or as serfs, if we keep swallowing...the climate alarmist rubbish. The fascist Green left will only be happy once they bring in their preferred method of getting things done, AI and androids and anyone centre right in political views can abide by their way of doing things or go off to the Soylent Green factory. But if you mean humans are destined for perpetual serfdom because of climate change, I would say yes unless you adapt. 95% of species that have ever existed on Earth are extinct now due to climate change, volcanism and meteorites and geomagnetic pole shifts or weakening and changes to our sun etc.
I have a friend who is a helicopter plot in the middle east. A new helicopter with the latest in carbon fibre technology and computer simulated testing was purchased by the company. The tail rotor fell off after a few hours flying. The experts from the factory came to inspect it and were puzzled and could not understand why it happened because the computer design should not have failed!!!
in Dynamic Control Theory, and increase in the amplitude and frequency of oscillations indicate the system is reaching the outter parts of the convergence region. (convergence region is a region in the mathematical space of the variables - within the region the system moves around a pole and if it leaves it, the system will go to some other, unknown, pole)
@@JustHaveaThink look into the fact that we are supposed to be entering into an ice age right now we are burning fossil fuels to be able to prevent this ice age... I think it is important to regulate the temperature of the planet we need to be able to control our carbon footprint as well as being able to control the temperature of the planet through such implementations.
I can remember back when the "settled science" was that we were on the cusp of the next ice age. Time magazine ran issues with the subject on the cover. That was when I was in 6th grade. Then boom, I got into high school and the "settled science" was all in a tizzy over global warming.
BS. That wasn't settled science nor climate science. Mainstream climate science never predicted the imminent glacial period the news magazines and comedy shows in the 60s and 70s were telling us about - to prepare for the next Ice Age. Only those that fell for mass media hype especially those suffering from Dunning-Kruger effect bring up the claim that there were scientists telling us we were going into an ice age. All educated people know our planet is still in an ice age called the Quaternary Period. Rasool and Schneider, Kukla, and a few others at the time thought the stall in global dimming that occurred 1940 to 1980 might continue and it was not a prediction, but that of speculation. Their papers were misinterpreted by lazy newspaper men, which was one of the reasons for the set off the ice age scare of the '70s.
It's weird though, because that idea was always in the minority of opinions, while global warming had been in the majority of opinions for that whole time including now.
Models based on human made expectations rather than actual data. As well as cherry picking historical data like increases in tornado report through the 90s after the implementation of a satellite monitoring system and recording F0 tornadoes when F1s were hardly reported in the past. Most of the hottest recorded temps are in the 1930s but the data we are shown begins in the 80s
Eastern Tasmania has been trending wetter over the last decade or so. Maybe it is the circumpolar West Wind Drift, positioning southward that is causing this. This is a good video on the Southern Hemisphere's weather and climate, thanks JHT.
Different strange things have been happening now I have been witnesses of what is going in Amoc system because I live in Poland and the UK.I have vineyard in Poland and I'm checking weather frequently.Summers are definitely not warmer but winters are warmer in Poland . I have noticed over active Atlantic circulation with much rain in Poland.it used to be -35 a decade ago in winter now there is a rain and max -9C with maritime climate style effect.Cold dry air pushed further east.I guess atmosphere is trying to get rid of warmth form Atlantic ocean
There is another commenter from the south east coast of NZ saying similar about the extra wettness. I am just north of Melbourne on land, and watch WeatherwatchNZ youtube channel for good forcasting if you need it. It has lots of Tassie reference on it that seems to be lacking on Australian forcasts.
They have been cloud seeding since 1947 you can look it up on RUclips they are not trying to hide it, most of it’s done by the military and contractors I live on the south shore of the St. Lawrence river and there are days when you could play checkers in the sky ,chemtrails last and then form wispy clouds ,vapour trails Disperse within 30 seconds so they are not the same
The persistent la Nina also seems to be affecting the decline of arctic ice, which had a record minimum extent in 2012 that it has non exceeded, though it has gotten close, since.
my utility provider shows temps have been cooling year after year for years now. they track temps and show our energy usage compared to cost and temps and you can save your data out, but if you don't they'll let you see 2yrs back. it's been getting cold year after year here in the US for multiple years now.
In North West Tasmania, there has been a noticeable change over the years, but if you could go back far enough, you would no doubt see constant change. But I think the major change is the number of people living in areas more likely to be affected by floods, fires, etc.
So the real number and magnitude of floods and fires equals the number and magnitude floods and fires divided by the number of people affected? Got it 👍
@@BrianStDenis-pj1tq Your first statement is illogical. If I notice the sun moving across the sky throughout the day there is nothing anecdotal (unreliable) about it. Change is change. Whether that short-term change is indicative of a long-term effect can *sometimes* only reliably be determined by accurate scientific measurements, but there are a multitude of cases where observed change is obviously indicative of long-term systemic change. There's nothing anecdotal (unreliable) about watching a glacier disappear over a person's lifetime. Your second statement redeems you somewhat. Humans don't control the weather, control implies the ability to direct something toward a desired, determined outcome. Instead we provide a forcing, a push toward chaos with the pollution from our activity, as we are now seeing. We have absolutely no control over it, but will have to weather the consequences.
@@geoffcapper5025 This is a statistics issue. The measure of temperature that you can observe daily, typically reported as the daily high temperature, fluctuates wildly. The global mean temperature, made up of millions of square miles of wildly fluctuating temperatures cannot be observed over a few years in a single location nor in a dozen locations. This applies to every global weather statistic, from rain to tornadoes to melting glaciers. Local observations are statistically unrelated events compared to the global trend. And, as you surly know, its already been hotter on this planet than it is now, and its been colder also. There has been more CO2 in the air than now in the past. So, again, measuring a few years or even hundreds of years really doesn't tell us cause and effects in such a chaotic system.
I heard news in the past day that our 3rd year of La Nina is actually showing signs of abating (yet it's only marginal so far). Here in Sydney, we have certainly experienced a particularly milder and wetter summer than is typical around here. The news article suggested we should shift towards at least a neutral, if not El Nino condition by late 2023. The downside to El Nino (for us) is that condition is often associated with heat waves, droughts and fires (especially following wetter seasons that promoted more undergrowth)
Unlike other parts of the Earth, Australia is uniquely placed as a single continent, with 4 weather patterns around it. In some ways it is a plain model for it is rather flat, and has a large desert heart. It has been a while since I saw storms traveling across the landscape from the Indian Ocean. It has rained on and off for the last 3 years, and the ground is saturated, and Lake Eyre is filling up.
"The land of drought and flooding rains, Bushfires and blowing dust, Never rains when you want it to, When it does it's too bloody much." I farm in the Wimmera district and this has been the case since settlement. Australia has really big rivers with even bigger floodplains for a reason even though they are mostly not much more than a trickle. Our problem is we have built cities on those floodplains. We also use the floodplains for intensive agriculture and some years we get washed out and some we are droughted out. Nothing new to report here.
It's incredible how many youtube comments are able to dismantle decades and thousands of studies about climate change in mere seconds. Your free thinking without any kind of political bias at all is astonishing. Pat on the back yourselves. You're amazing!!!
Please list all the adverse climate predictions by your thousands of studies from, say, the last fifty years that have come true. (To help you, there aren't any.)
Pablo Balbontín Yeah I've found it hilarious for 10 years. Really could they even be any more transparently having no interest at all in the science and only in their money ? I think not. I think they couldn't possible show more clearly their SOLE interest in life .. M O N E Y. It's hilariously comical. Most of them are sock puppets, they have empty "Channels", accounts set up only for trolling climate change videos with cut'n'paste parroted Drivel Memes that have been concocted for them by professional liars, it's quick'n' easy. 9 years ago I had several exchanges with a "Gina Titnaw" before a bloke told me she's a sock puppet account of a bloke who works for a Ruzzian oil company. Some of them are obviously A.I. computer programs now, they are good but not so good that you can't spot them robocalling in the comments.
We live in the foothills of Jaramillo in Chiriqui in western Panama. Being in the tropics we have reliable wet and dry seasons. What we have witnessed (due to La Nina) is an early start (starting right now instead of mid December) to the dry season, but record rainfall in the wet season. So far this year we have had over 240 inches (20 ft, or over 6.0 m) of rain, whereas in a normal year would have between 150 and 180 inches.
I wanted to learn more information so I searched what caused past global glaciations (aka Ice Ages) and I found my answer. To synopsize, Earth's distance from the sun fluctuates and we currently are in a closer, warm phase that we're about halfway through. In a few hundred years the next event will start cooling Earth and then the climate will get colder pretty quickly but the full change to Ice Age takes many hundred of years or more which is why people can't actually discern it for themselves. Ice sheets two miles thick crush to dust ANYTHING humans can build and when they retreat due to warming unbelievably torrential flooding follows and continues for millennia, meaning that between the ice and the flooding any evidence and accomplishments of possible somewhat advanced prior civilizations might be completely obliterated and washed away.
Or increased atmospheric moisture due to warming. Anything to avoid admitting the anthropogenic drivers of current climate change. La Nina patterns are part of the event not contrary to it.
Solar cycles and solar activity, volcanic activity, are important into short time models (periods about 100 years). New models could include them as important factors, not like nowadays excluded by "ceteris paribus"
Interesting video! Great to get a small insight into how real world data is being collected and published to improve global climate models. These models are a good example of global collaboration. I wish to response to some of the comments on this video: the papers highlighted here show there are some unknown factors in the climate models which may be leading to inaccuracies (which is inevidatable, as it is a very complex model). My guess is that the models are based on historical records taken from ice, and that the full impact of human activity since the industrial (fossil fuel) revoltion is hard to factor in. As real world data is collected, the models are improved. Unfortunately, increasing extreme whether events such as droughts and flooding are increasing due to human activity as predicted in many IPCC reports. There's no 'get of jail free card'. So, urgent and drastic changes are needed. Specifically, moving away from fossil fuels and transitioning to a circular economic model rather than a linear one, and restoring natural habititats, moving to regenerative farming rather than industrial agriculture...and big respect to this channel for highlighting many of these solutions! Myself, I'm studying Green Building at CAT in Wales. My course is about how to adapt our built environemnt to be more energy efficient and to cope with more extreme weather, using low-impact materials. Thanks to Just Have a Think for the excellent and high quality content! Best regards, Liam
A very interesting and very affordable Kindle edition regarding climate is Javier Vinos book "Climate of the Past, Present and Future: A scientific debate" , 2nd ed. The book is an overview of much of the science. While a great deal of it may be over the heads of readers it's possible to get a good idea of the meaning nonetheless.
I live in the andean part of Colombia and although we have seen 70% more rainfall than normal in the rainy season, which is something expected, what really intrigued me was how our temperatures during the dry season in the coldest months of the year have managed to reach below 0°C, something we are not used to see. And let me remind you again that I live in a pretty highly elevated place.
Tell why carbon reductuction emission and CHEMTRAILS on the sky why? Are the power to be use the bast solution for human race ? Why people keep quiet and put up with everything and use starvation ,wars instead best solution? Because nobody have the brain to go take places and take the power away from parasites of this planet Banking Cartel.
Earth’s magnetic field is thinning rapidly and solar flares are penetrating deeper into the atmosphere. Find a high altitude cave to shelter in just in case the magnetic shield thins further-- which it is trending to do and warm clothes and blankets. This weather forecaster is not paying attention to the sun’s cycles or earth’s thinning magnetic shield.
The problem with most climate models is, that they take the sun's output/activity as a constant. The way scientists who point at the sun are mostly ignored reminds me of the movie "Don't look up".
bingo! Earth receives more energy from the Sun *in just one day* than all of humanity combined uses in 25 years - solar output varies by around 3%, however that variation is only a tiny speck of data as we've only been recording it for a very short time in a 4 billion year history also Earths' magnetosphere is highly variable as is Earths' orbit and Precessional wobble - modern 'science' and their models ignore all these factors
I'm a Hawaii resident since 1962 I have seen significant changes in the patterns here, and we have the (usually) advantage of a lot of water to moderate the changes. But the NE Trade Winds which were the predominate pattern here are now rare. The wind more often comes from the E. and has less velocity, and we have week long periods of near windless conditions. Temps are higher, on average. A HOT day was in the high 80s F. and now we have some weeks where the temps bounce around 90F, even approaching 100F. in some areas. Rainfall patterns are very different. Coastal erosion is now an economic threat, as beaches disappear and homes are threatened. Coral reefs are not doing well and large food fish are disappearing, with attendant price increases.
@@kimweaver1252 so the climate has been literally unlivable for humans countless times before we got here and will continue to become that way long after we are gone. Thats if a comet strike like the one that ended the last ice age and wiped out 90% of humans did 11,000 years ago doesn’t get us first.
What I hate is they are spraying chemtrails to change weather patterns and no one is accounting the changes to them, I have seen it over and over were they have used it to create droughts and floods. The rain is toxic now full of nano particle aluminum coating all it comes into contact making everything a fire danger, if you are still allowed to have your water tested for the aluminium with a electron microscope you will see what I mean.
Your comments do not match the data. I suggest you stop imagining problems and educate yourself on the true weather patterns of your area. Your comments here do not reflect reality. You are indulging in propaganda.+
Your video title actually made me think of one of my most favourite citations from George Box, one of the founding fathers of industrial statistics: “All models are wrong, but some are useful!” Pointing to the problem that all models however sophisticated, will always make simplifications or assumptions, which cannot be proven! And as the comments before this suggest in this case it might be a single event was not part of the long-term global models as it was not possible to predict. And I also believe it is extremely difficult to actually measure, or separate from a legion of much smaller but also very impactful events. That is the challenge with observational data, you can never be sure if you have not overlooked or dismissed an important influence… ;-) So if you are in the fortunate position to be able to design your experiments, do make use of this and check out the fantastic method of statistical experimental design!
Good reply. If you notice, china was in great trouble last year with the yellow river dam overflowing. Its almost empty at this point! Other places like the Hoover dam is also almost empty...BUT other DRY places are quite wet.. unusually so. El Nina is the issue!
I've lived in Melbourne (Australia) for 30 years and the weather has most definitely cooled; we rarely have a spring just a very long and tiresome winter.
This is crazy how the weather is changing around the world. Drought in some areas and to much rain in another part of the world. I think that the weather will hit harder because hot and cold don't mix mlm
Ironically the extreme rain has been a welcome event in South Australia being the driest state and it has been the most rain I have ever seen in my 50 years and the mildest summer so far.
Are the climate models wrong?? About this huge thing ? YES ! ABSOLUTELY (UNLESS CORRECTED SINCE 2014) ! AND KNOWN SINCE 2014 OR EARLIER ! NOT NEWS IN THE SLIGHTEST ! Here's the scientific paper. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus Nature Climate Change 4, 222-227 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 14 February 2014 Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso "Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades-unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models-is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake." ---------------- Quote: "The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers. Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature. Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century. The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push. “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” says Professor Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Professor Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Professor England says."
I remember being in South Australia due to work in November each year between 2000-2011 and when I see the Temps today I am amazed as they are 10c+ (21F approx) below what they were back then and in some years even higher differential between then and now. Back then it rarely rained more than 2-3 days the whole month of November.
Sadly very few of these people are capable of even comprehending how UNDERMINING ones own argument applies in this case, laying ALL the blame for every unusually common unusual weather event, every weather related natural disaster HOT, or COLD ... WET {floods), or DRY {drought}significantly FEWER MAJOR HURRICANES, each year {Cat. 3, & higher striking the US mainland} than historical related natural disaster, another IRONIC benefit natural disaster-phobia
@@kellyowens1868 100% correct Kelly. The cultists are so brainwashed they see ever weather event through the CC/GW spectrum. Weather is weather and varies constantly for a thousand(or more) different reasons yet for them it is always Climate change etc not simply variable weather. The stupidity of their argument becomes even clearer when they contend extreme heat and extreme cold comes from the same thing which totally turns science on its head. You cannot have extreme heat and extreme cold in the same place in a greenhouse. Greenhouses keep temperatures stable not wildly variable from one extreme to the other. Nothing they contend complies with science.
I've lived in south east Queensland for forty years and I can't say I've noticed any huge difference in weather patterns. We don't appear to have had any particularly long dry periods (in fact, probably the opposite). For the most part we seem to have had milder summers and definitely cooler winters. Further inland is obviously a different story but a lot of the drought problem for farmers is the failure to adopt proven natural regenerative and rehydration principles.
I’m an ocean sailor and this topic absolutely fascinates me. Amazing how you fit so much weather/climate information into less than 12 minutes. I’ll be rewatching this video and taking notes. Thank you so much for what you do!
@Be Well On sailboats, the west coast of British Columbia/Vancouver Island; on tugboats I’ve been around from Alabama/Panama Canal/West coast of US/Canada and Western Alaska through the entire Aleutian chain and on up past Nome.
@@luismoref That’s an interesting idea. Any video I’ve taken is indeed very raw with no production standards and so I hadn’t thought it would be interesting to people.
@@amandalillet1056 I don't know if you're going to be a big star of RUclips. huahuahuah but these type of life style is fascinating to see raw. When there's a lot of production it seems a little fake or don't show the downsides. Hope you do this. I'll subscribe to you just in case. ☺️
The harm caused by the Australian rain events was due largely to bad planning decisions, in building dense housing in flood plains, and in insufficient attention to preventive infrastructure. This tends to be the origin of the harm inflicted by most catastrophic events.
thanks once again for making extremely comprehensive videos that anyone can understand! We need people to understand the science in order to take action
The most accurate thing he said was the models are wrong. He says the researchers don't know what's going on. Then the researchers make a prediction that GHG induced climate change will reverse the current trend and cause calamity.
There is no science to understand. Their models are consistently wrong. The only science they are doing is cherry-picking the data to scare you into the action of disrupting your life and paying more taxes with the absurd idea that the government can control the weather.
Problem with climate change is things change an I find it hard to believe they know exactly the damage an the way it should change. Look predicting the weather a week ahead is barley possible now yet I'm suppose to believe you know what the weather will be in 30 year's from now 😂 to be clear obviously global warming is a thing but saying what it'll be in decades from now is ludicrous, our planet evolves it has for past couple billion years, planet will be fine however those rich elites that run everything an live mostly on beaches, Florida,Cali, Hawaii surely will have to relocate. Don't think that has anything do with this do you?
Rainfall here in Canberra, Australia (inland far south east corner) is running about 50% above average this year. This comes on the back of two years of well above average rainfall. I've never seen it looking so green. Rivers have a lot of water flow but luckily we are not susceptible to flooding around here. The severe drought and fires of 2019 are slowly fading from memory.
Very interesting questions you are posing in this video. I wonder if this doesn’t deserve some additional scrutiny by those doing the meteorological modeling that will be used to drive current and future policies. One has to wonder just how accurate these modeling scenarios actually are, and how accurately do they reflect what is actually going on? I wonder if these important questions will ever be looked into by the very policymakers we rely upon?
Lots of good big picture overviews regarding the El Nino~/La Nina~ phenomenon. However, in summation scientists don't really know what causes them, and they were happening long before the internal combustion engine was invented. In my humble opinion they are caused by variations in solar energy, and perhaps underwater volcanic activity.
I think this prolonged La Nina is in part driven by the solar cycle. Between 2010 and 2012 there were 22 La Nina months.A fairly solid block of La Ninas.Roughly 10 years later the same thing has happened again, albeit a bit longer this time.
A question.. could the crust upwelling (hot spot under the crust due to up-welling of magma etc have anything to do with this. there is a hot spot off the East Coast of NZ and there also seems to be an increase in volcanic activity there and around chain of fire...Thanks also for these videos... i enjoy your questions with out the hype and drama. Cheers from a New Zealander living in Austria
I know this one: volcanic activity all combined the crust over/under water does not even come close to the CO2 levels by Man and his burning approx 100 million barrels of oil per day.
The long term forecast for the PNW and California back in October claimed that Oregon would be a bit wetter than normal and California would be drier than normal. Here we are at then end of December and the Umpqua River is approaching flood stage and LA is expected to get 8 inches of rain in the next 6 days. So much for climate models
I would like to see a "Just have a think" episode on the sun cycles. I watch them closely and it appears we are beginning a new cycle that will have a low number of sun spots indicating a lower amount solar radiation in certain parts of the spectrum and more gamma rays which quite possibly affects cloud formation.
When are we going to talk about how most solar energy is not in UV or the Visible Spectrum, and its dominance in determining the various yearly and decadal weather cycles? Or that the Farmer's Almanac bases their predictions on solar weather, not IPCC models.
@@float32 I guess you're a slave to your 5G vaccine chips. Or something. Wouldn't it be nice if we had a social media platform that excluded the dingbats?
If we’d started planting millions of trees per annum - hundreds per annum per person - 40/50 years ago we’d be fine right now ….. vegetation not only drives - is - the CO2 // O2 cycle but is also totally the hydrological cycle too. ….. But now, several trillion trees short, we’re toast ……😮😢😮😢😮😢
I’m sure you’ve covered all the weather patterns in other videos but I found this video helped explain some of the patterns we hear about. Thanks for the detail. What I think would be really helpful is a video on all the major ocean current patterns and what maybe the issues with them as climate changes even if the scientists are not sure of the whole picture
It’s also the global poisoning that has decimated our insect population leading to all the birds missing; thus their flapping wings no longer a factor; how do you get that into the computer?
The truth of the matter is that we have neither the computing power nor the amount of initial data that would be necessary to properly model the earth's climate, including ocean currents. Just like this video, where what seems to be happening is contrary to existing models, what we have are just "toys that are nice to play with in the laboratory" (Dr. Mototaka Nakamura in "The Global Warming Hypothesis is an Unproven Hypothesis."
I'm in Tasmania, and as a keen sailor I have kept a close eye on the weather since forever. Weather patterns here have definitely changed in the last thirty years or so. Being in the "Roaring Forties", spring is usually really unsettled here, and brings repeated cold fronts with quick showers and especially very strong winds. Piss and wind weather, which makes the job of antifouling a yacht and getting it dry long enough to paint a real pain. This year we've barely had a single westerly buster that is enough to blow your hat off, nothing like the sixty knot gusts that we usually get. What we have had instead are huge low pressure troughs bringing moist air all the way from northern Oz, spreading down here from the east and hanging over our island literally like a dreary wet week. In fact there's one over my head right now and it's going to be here until next weekend; hardly any wind, but unending lowering skies, although not as much rain as it has dumped on the mainland.
Did you know an ex NASA employee testified in the Aussie parliament that NASA where giving false ocean temperatures readings in the waters around Australia, it was on RUclips the video...
@@torqueover Of course, we have another "expert" here. Funny, how the "experts" show up in comments on youtube. So, "expert", why don't you enlighten us clueless people how things really are? The all knowing torqueover will have all the answers.
@@autohmae your right the Tongan volcano blasted huge amounts of moisture into upper atmosphere With quite strong trade winds it was carried all the way across 2 us . The low dumping rain on the northern rivers region just sucked it all in.🤟
This year, and probably next year aswell, there's also the influence of the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption. It's inpact is bigger than initially thought, specially on Australia, but also worldwide. For instance NASA reported about this.
@@zombi3lif3 As a Zimbabwean I always found the term "3rd world" funny... as if you'd portal through some stargate or wormhole (two of them) to get here. 😅🤣
I live in Cairns on the far northern tropical coast of Queensland and is the wettest city in Australia. The tropical climate here is quite interesting with the trade winds blowing for months at a time bringing moisture to the coast even in the so called 'dry season'. I absolutely LOVE the rain, so this doesn't bother me however my heart goes out to regions in southern inland Australia. These regions have relatively flat topography, narrow rivers and infrastructure that isn't really suited to wet conditions. Worse still is the fact that most of the water will either run out to sea via the Murray River or just evaporate in the months to come. It's a shame some of the water couldn't be saved and used by our southern agricultural regions, though I know this gets quite political so.
Don't worry, all our dams are full now, we have more than enough water for irrigation. Most of the land won't need irrigation for the rest of the year and into 2023. Dartmouth dam is full for the first time since 1996 at 102%. Many floodplains on the Murray/Darling are flooded, the River Gums will live a little longer. The entire river environment needs water flow and flooding , we use far too much of it and are killing those 2 great rivers. The Coorong in SA especially is in dire need of large flows of fresh water yearly, this years they will get a good flush. Lived in Cairns myself for 4 years, Vic is a bit like that now, wet, just colder!
Jason Tempest - it's no use relying on beurocrats to come up with planning solutions. They're paper shufflers. I am sure it's feasible to harvest that water in underground reservoirs to to supply a massive growing area. It would be great to see Australian desert turn into lush tropical greenery. Check out Brazil"s Terra Preta.
@@kelduck8851 That isn't long and before you know it, we'll be back to drought conditions with the next La Nina. I'm not old but I've already seen these cycles repeat time over again and again. Anyway I know my region will be well watered regardless but what about the southern inland?
I'm surprised no one here talk about of geoengineering programs. I have been back from a trip to Europe for a few weeks and I guarantee you that they sprayed the skies every day
The winter of 22-23 was a record year for snow on the West Coast of America. This was supposed to be during a La Nina. It ended the drought for the time being. I also wonder what effect, if any, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Volcano had.
There’s something you missed about La Niña’s effect on the USA that’s really obvious now several months later. If you look at any map generalizing La Niña’s effects over history, you will notice that the greater Pacific Northwest, all the way down to North California, is supposed to get more precipitation than usual. This has happened on a massive scale in the past few months, though for whatever reason it’s moved a bit further south than usual. Consequently the rains have also penetrated into the Colorado river basin, but the distinct lack of precipitation there when compared to California still suggests that this is a typical La Niña effect.
I agree, John. Vicious is the word alright. If you have lived on a farm you will know the effect they have on people. I remember hearing of one farmer who was in such despair because of the effects of one such drought, one day went out and shot his livestock and then shot himself. I know floods can be tragic and cause a lot of damage and loss of life, but most floods in Australia are usually single, short-term events and communities recover fairly quickly afterwards (except of course when you get one flood after another which has happened this year). Droughts, especially those that go on for years, cause far more damage to the land, even more so if it is accompanied by bushfires. Nevertheless, whether it is a flood or a drought, land and wildlife populations on the whole do recover. With the third consecutive La Nina, inland Australia has undergone a huge transformation with consistent rainfall. Flooding has made farming challenging but I think more water inland is preferable to none at all.
Never forget the golden rule of computer modeling - Garbage in equals garbage out. Computer models in many cases are designed to "look for" an expected result. Most times if the expected result isn't achieved, the input data will be changed, to get the expected result instead of standing back and evaluating if computer modeling is even appropriate. There has been a trend in recent years to "just believe" whatever the models predict without question, which flies in the face of common sense and good science. This is a why no political body should base any policy on computer modeling...real world measurements are the only sensible method of creating policy.
The models also don’t deal with the thinning Ozone layer over the South Atlantic (South Atlantic Anomaly). The models are assuming a mostly homogeneous atmospheric conditions overall.
I am on the north coast of New South Wales. It has been a wet few years however I am now in my 60’s and I have seen many years of flooding and drought. I don’t see it all as abnormal in any way. La Niña has done this before and will no doubt do it all again. I remember seeing similar floods back in the 60’s, long droughts as well, the only difference I can say is the bushfires are worse because we have not kept up control burns for 40 years and there is way too much fuel on the ground.
Totally agree. I am in my 70s living in Sydney. This countries history is drought, fire and flood. An "eminent" professor "expert" claimedsome years back we would not have enough rain to foll our dams. They built no new dams built an expensive desalination plant. The plant has hardly been used and dams all up the east coast are full. These models you talk of are only models, a total waste. Decent climate scientists will tell that climate mechanisms are extremely complicated. Good luck tryi g to predict anything.
I work at a research lab in modeling. There are climate modeling researchers here as well. They recently put out a paper that the problem with the models is the modeling of clouds. And yes, there are problems with the models. There is a famous quote in scientific modeling: “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.” Thus far, climate models are not very useful.
In America they’re all are useful....as political propaganda and fear mongering tools.
Do you factor in geoengineering weather weapons?
Like the H.A.A.R.P. facility in Alaska?
Or cloud seeding like China did with the Beijing Olympics so it wouldnt rain during the games, it caused flooding elsewhere though. Cloud seeding has been in use since the 1940's.
Weather weapons are real as there is a UN treaty in effect since 1978 banning there use on other nations.
Are these things what throw your climate models so far out and the reason for the extreme weather conditions?
It would fit the WEF climate change agenda bs and the UN Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development.
To the Elite globalists our population is not Sustainable.
The WEF slogan is - 2030 You Will Own Nothing and You Will be Happy.
Its war on the world population starting with the West.
The aim of the extreme weather is to destroy the food crops worldwide.
Yet the 'chicken little' woke are using models to make their claim of a climate emergency, these alarmists need to be shut down.
It is ridiculous how they claim Co and CO2 would be a problem to plant life, when palio records compare the current as being low, therefore having more carbon would offset this cooling trend of a solar minimum.
Environment Canada's climate model, was foisted on an unsuspecting public in 1999. They gave 7 dire warnings about climate catastrophes that would occur in the next twenty years. They included crop failures in the prairies, dangerously high sea levels and a huge spike in urban heat-related fatalities. Not one of their predictions happened....not one. I've yet to see one that was accurate.
@@Martin.Wilson There is one, crop failures, caused by artificially high diesel prices and restrictions in fertilizer usage.
The conclusion is Don't rely on models based on models
GIGO is real!
Especially if both are largely incomplete models to begin with... 'but mah funding!'
@@undernetjack follow the $cience!
@@Eyes0penNoFear ruclips.net/video/NMvj-WD9eAU/видео.html
@@mrmustangman as many times as I've used that phrase, you're the first person to link me to a video like that 😂😂😂
Well played 👏
Nobody has commented on the Hunga Tonga volcano, a submarine volcano which spewed massive amounts of sulphur into the atmosphere. This has caused spectacular red & orange sunsets. The sulphur has also caused a change in our weather patterns causing heavy rainfall to areas like Australia.
Exactly-spot on information.
They never comment on volcanoes because they cannot get volcanoes' money by charging them with CO2 taxes.
Back in the nineties they pointed to Mt. Pinatubo! See! It’s a volcano not us! Humans would never destroy their own nest due to greed and shortsightedness. It’s an argument for the denying faithful.
@@AlexYounger Greed has no guardrails.
The elite may already know a new oil free technology/powergrid is in the pipeline,-ha, but the dominoes for self-destruction are already starting to fall.
@@AlexYounger Why did Honga blow when it did, might it just be a feed back mechanism?
Oh no, it does not result in runaway warming for the heating cult faithful.
You see we can do just the same as what you do.
The problem is not that all climate models are wrong to one degree or another, but that governments seem to make policy based on models that are consistent only in their failure.
This!!!! 100000% "well they have all been wrong 100% before... But I'm sure they will be right going forward sooo we will just keep pushing the disaster narrative to create more funding and and of course control"
Climate models may be good for some things like predicting regional shifts in temperature and moisture, but they have significant simplifications when it comes to the specifics of modeling the GHG effect as it warms the Earth. They get their GHG temperature predictions very wrong. We are getting interest from people trying a REVOLUTIONARY free Excel-based calculator that can be downloaded anonymously from our website. It embeds detailed physics equations and absorption data tables for the greenhouse gas effect so the user can precisely obtain the change in Earth’s temperature when GHG levels change for any change analysis scenario the user wants to solve. It simultaneously solves the equations for any mixture change of CO2, CH4, N2O and H2O. People who’ve tried it are enthused because the good-news results are significantly less pessimistic than the popular belief in the media.
The puzzle is how did humans think that the weather would just float along and never change when the history of our planet tells us we've gone through flooding and ice ages more than once...
This is how we run across places where there's been buildings and then the people disappear but there's really not that many bones.
Where did they go?
They got up and moved because the weather conditions were unfavorable for their continued existence.
Well that and wars, plagues and volcanoes.
We live on a living planet it changes on a regular basis...we're just learning how to see it on a worldwide view.
Because they don't teach history anymore. I was laughing when everyone started screaming about the polar ice caps and permafrost were melting, and then reports of boats, villages, people found in them.... permafrost is not so permanent.... that means there was not ice there at one point. History shows every 500 years the earth goes hot or cold, every 1000 years it's more extreme. It's always changing, we only In the last 40 years have been able to see it world wide.
Exactly. The climate is changing all the time, always has. It's shear arrogance to think we can create models that predict the outcomes of a nonlinear chaotic system. There's a lot of evidence that the world is going to cool, the best we can do is watch and learn... and adapt to the changes as we've always done 🤔
@@martinbaker613
What gets me is the people that think that they can actually control nature...it's such a joke...we can't even predict it accurately let alone control it!
And we've had CO2 increase to 400ppm before...except it happened over hundreds of thousands of years not over 200 years since the industrial revolution...get real people, this climate change isn't just "weather" doing its thing...this sudden increase gives nature (and us) no time to adapt...
that was more informative than what those who are yelling and disrupting people's lives will ever tell you.
Absolutely. People searching for truth without a political motive is refreshing.
Don’t be fooled by this lack of knowledge and research the wet weather is caused by the volcano erupting in Tonga in January of this year, you can find information about it on RUclips
Sandy, that’s because people hear what they want to hear, and draw conclusions based on what they remember- not what was actually presented.
As a result, govt forgoes all the details and gives us just what the point is that should be remembered.
(By the way, you likely remember this is also what the religious leadership did in the “dark ages” as well.)
@@jamespendleton4802 +
Is it refreshing for someone to describe predictable cycles of climate change that have been functioning in essentially the same manner, with slight fluctuations any reasonable person would expect to occur in any natural phenomenon ... cyclical weather patterns, Polar bear numbers {significantly larger in recent years, btw, but merely a continuance of a steady, persistent, & confounding INCREASE in the world's population of large arctic mammals from the Orsine family, I haven't heard much about Grissly Bear numbers, or the smaller Black, & Brown bear species commonly found throughout the woodlands, & the many prominant mountain ranges that dominate the landscape of the US, &
Canada, but you probably won't hear much about any bear species suffering from the catastrophic effects of refrigeration, home cooked meals, clean clothes, long distance travel, making roughly 1/3 of the US, & Nearly all of Canada capable of supporting human habitation, & don't forget nearly all agricultural production, & large scale food processing {think grape nuts, beer, & tortillas of significant scale, with a few notable exceptions, I-RONICALLY ENOUGH, meat, dairy, eggs: cattle-hogs-chicken
When it comes to these "human created climate change" narrative computer models, one thing I was taught about computer programming when I went to college 40 years ago, one saying come to mind....
"Garbage in, garbage out".
Yep and they don't work when they go backwards ie there are 4 interglacial warm periods in the last million years that were much warmer than our current interglacial warm period but that they can't predict these with the models because the co2 levels were around 250ppm, low co2 with high temperatures totally buggers up the models.
Million years? 😂 that's a lie
Science recently found out we have a young earth. Look it up! Secular science tries hard to make it millions when it's not, it's only thousands of years old
Look in your mirror for garbage and understanding I see. For the past 50 years the climate models, within statistical error bounds, have predicted warming and the measurements each and every year show WARMING.
You are either just a God Damned LIAR or a bot, which?
Also to add, it's always INTERESTING these "studies" start their evidence periods after 1979.
What better way to show a warming trend?
Many studies I've seen over the years actually start with geological records dating back thousands of years and longer. Perhaps we need to read more.
It was not until the 1980s that warming due to CO2 began to become evident in the instrumental temperature above the background of natural forcings.
That was predicted by Hansen et al in a 1981 paper. Their model has stood the test of time.
pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1981/1981_Hansen_ha04600x.pdf
Other data, such as sea level goes back longer.
climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
@@pshehan1 Whatever. As if the world was supposed to stay the same temperate forever. Hahaha. No emergency, just a cutback on some chemical uses. Which is why the ozone layer is reportedly 'healing'. All this 'Climate Change' hysteria is just political. An attempt to push the free world into Socialism / Communism.
@@GB-gf3dm The temperature was not going to stay the same forever. That is no reason for humans to change it now.
The climate had been relatively stable for the 12,000 years of the holocene when agriculture, human populations, infrastructure including coastal cities developed where they are until the industrial revolution began adding CO2 to the atmosphere, raising it by 50% so far, from 280 to 420 ppm, and increasing the temperature by 1.3 C so far and currently rising at an accelerating rate of 0.2 C per decade.
The same science which correctly predicted that predicts the disastrtous consequences if that continues.
That is not politics. It is fact.
I have spent nearly four decades building math models in numerous industries, One conclusion comes to mind when I read about climate models: the most important things in a model are those it doesn't contain.
The accuracy of any good model depends on including as many variables as possible. In most climate models, the include between 4 and 6 variables when they should be basing them on 15-16 different criteria. The unfortunate truth is that they tend eliminate the variables that don't result in the desired outcome, which clearly undermines the scientific method at it's foundation.
@@Martin.Wilson You have a GREAT start but since I am not a scientist of any caliber, could there be even MORE criteria or variables to be considered?? PEACE!
@ Jacek.... GREAT COMMENT! Maybe somebody had better get the quantum computers working on this instead of asking, WHY IS THERE AIR?" ( or other irrelevant nonsense) PEACE!
@@jtc1947 Absolutely. The more comprehensive the model is, in terms of variables, the more accurate it is likely to be. One of the most important criterion that is often overlooked are the Milankovitch cycles which can cause variations of up to 25 percent in the amount of incoming solar radiation at Earth’s mid-latitudes. In fact, the Milankovitch cycles were crucial in triggering the numerous ice ages throughout Earth's geological past.
@@Martin.Wilson I was amazed about the precession (?? Is that the correct term? concerning the difference in the % of how the EARTH is actually facing the sun. Seems that Our planet has quite a bit of wobble and the "orientation" can vary so much. To the point that 20 K years ago the SAHARA was a lush paradise.
Here in South East QLD Australia it has been a cool spring and we’re loving it!! The regular wet days have been great for filling up the water tanks on our property but we’re looking forward to a change back to drier conditions.
For those is who have lived in Australia for more than 30 years you know Australia is the land of weather extremes and it’s our normal.
It’s very sad to hear so many teenagers are convinced that every weather event in Australia is catastrophic climate change and yet haven’t bothered to research the history of Australian weather!!
Very interesting to hear about your weather in Australia. I had no ideas that floods were an issue for your continent as I thought of Australia as a fairly dry continent. Thanks for your comment!
Love your channel. Super interesting content and your presentation style & voice are excellent. Glad I found you. Keep it up, your information is fascinating!
@@keng7758 Various parts of Australia flood regularly. Most are in areas that have very few people so do not make the news as no infrastructure is destroyed and no deaths result. Yet as soon as the East gets a flood all the climate change nutters come out stating it is proof of catastrophic Climate Change. Sadly, a simple search of historical records would inform them that such floods are normal and have occurred for all recorded time in Australia usually occurring every 50 years or so. Sometimes they are late coming and sometimes early but they are normal and nothing to do with GW/CC.
One of the reasons the models are wrong is that they are not adjusted for local weather patterns nor updated for actual data since modelling began. They still use data which failed to manifest over the last 40-50 years and therefore are based on false premise. As an example they are based on a constant annual rise in temperatures yet all actual data over the last 50 years shows the annual change indeed changes each and every year.
This means if the models are not adjusted each and every year the predictions are based on patently False data and should not even be looked at as a guide to future weather.
Yet governments worldwide spend Billions/Trillions based on this inaccurate and false modelling.
They tell us to follow the science but are themselves NOT following science but agendas. Point it out and unfortunately you get labelled a denier etc by all the cultists following the GW/CC cults. If you print poor science then expect that science to be challenged and proven incorrect.
@@saintsone7877 That unfortunately is totally incorrect. Australia's annual average temperature has increased over the last 100 years by 1.44 degrees C. Some years (like La Nina years) buck the trend. Average rainfall has been roughly the same but the the rainfall distribution has shifted markedly. The North being generally wetter and the South increasingly drier. Again individual years, particularly La Nina ones, buck the trend. Now, the models have their limitations in predicting what and exactly where the impacts of global warming will be. What they haven't got wrong is that global warming continues to trend upwards and that the result is an increase in intensity of severe weather events. That's why records continue to be broken. This video did not suggest that climate change isn't a serious issue as you are making out. Models have been updated with improved scientific knowledge and actual measurements, I've been following the subject since the mid 90's, but it's an ongoing process.
@@tonyclayton6975 Tony, those increases you mention. Is that before or after they amended temperatures? You were aware that approximately 2000 temperatures per year are amended downwards on temperatures from 1900-2000 by an average 2-4C and please don't respond and say they do not as it is easy to verify(if you are willing to do the legwork).
Go to the BOM records and input temps for 1900-1970 for any days you choose. Then go to that town/cities local library and look at historical newspapers temps for the corresponding days and viola, the Bom temps are lower for those days than the newspapers which are the actual temps for that day.
Sad to think you say you have followed it since the 1990's yet are unaware of this falsification of historical records by the BOM.
You possibly also do not remember the climate scientist who caught the BOM falsifying temps in Canberra during winter. The ABC was showing the temps at a certain spot in Canberra whilst a scientist had temp equipment on that mountain area showing much colder temperatures. She rang the ABC and informed them their semaphored temps were wrong and lo and behold shortly after they disappeared from screen with apologies and the excuse gauges etc were malfunctioning. A week later she repeated the process and caught them with wrong temps again.
Just shows the lengths they go to to falsify data. Watch your smartphone closely daily and you can see the temps vary between devices by up to 2C daily yet annual changes are in thousands of a degree over the last 10 years.
And the average temperature of the earth is not very warm at all is it Tony? Yet we get told a 2-5C increase will be a catastrophe when anyone with intelligence knows this is poppycock.
Far more people die in cold temperatures today than in warm temperatures around the world and if one compares the numbers of people dying due to weather related incidents 100 years ago and today it was far higher 100 years ago than today.
CC/GW is a scam pure and simple.
Where are the 500+million climate refugees that was supposed to begin around year 2000 Tony? That is what they predicted back in the 1970's/80's.
Is the Sydney Opera House going to be under water by 2025 Tony due to sea level rising? Now they claim it will be by 2075.
These are the people you call experts yet every prediction they have made since the 1970's where they gave an event and date has failed to materialise. NOT 1 has materialised Tony out of hundreds. That says it all Tony. But you can go on believing your doomsdayers nonsense.
Oh, and by the way Tony, they told us 20+ years ago Australia would NEVER EVER get rains like in the past. Each and EVERY year would become drier and DRIER until eventually we ran out of water in our dams etc. Yet here we are Tony 20 or so years later getting record rainfall and dams overflowing. Just another prediction they got totally incorrect yet now they have the temerity to say it is CC/GW that is causing the rains they said would never come again due to CC/GW. The goalposts change everytime their data proves to be false Tony. That is not science my friend but cultism.
The Tongan underwater volcano eruption put massive amounts of moisture into the atmosphere and has effected the winds in the Indian ocean holding back the cycling patterns of the antarctic winds so ive seen. Which meant the exagerration of la nina on eastern Australia.
The ENSO oscillations are amazingly impactful where I used to live on the Peruvian coast, especially the northwest. Normally it is bone dry with barely an overcast sky to feed the cactus some drops of moisture. But when El Niño kicks in (which I believe gets its name specifically from Peru in Colonial times when the phenomenon would occur during Christmas and the birth of "El Niño") it starts to pour for months, washing out all of the bridges with flooding stranding coastal dwellers for months because their roads no longer function. The farmers plant rice of all things and the ocean is a balmy 75F, as opposed to the normal 65F. These are huge changes that have been occurring since time immemorial. Of course California is on a draught/rain cycle as well tied to these currents. Pretty much every region in the world is impacted, from the looks of it. My interest in El Niño started out of following surf reports, which are ultimately driven by big storms, which get bigger during El Niño because more heat means more energy. The other part of ENSO that is worth noting is that it is only really predictable maybe 6 months out. We know it oscillates, we know the range, we know some of the effects, but we can't predict with any precision what it will be doing in a year or two years or ten. The climate models are a bust on that. There is also strong evidence that undersea volcanic activity creates "hot spots" that influence ocean temperatures, currents and thus, ENSO. These are necessarily stochastic in nature and thus cannot be modeled or predicted. These could explain anomalous years that break earlier patterns.
I have been pretending in schools many times that I understood El Nino and La Nina pattern ,however even today it is more complicated than I thought .It is fascinating the effect on global weather system .thank you for illustrations
Check out the forcast videos from Eric Snodgras. He's a meteorologist with Nutrian Ag Solutions {also the YT channel name} and is very good at explaining things and helping teach people to understand how the patterns work. You really begin to understand how weather forecasting works.
Ask mathematicians about modeling a chaotic system like the climat.
Sensitivity of any chaotic system to parameters adjustements is huge.
In any case, we'll have confirmation/denial for models predictions in
years 2050 or 2100, so be patient.
the Tongan volcano add the la Nina sam and wa dipole..... this is the reason its already been put out there.....this is alarmism... el Nino is drought la Nina wet..... ask the black fellas like us we taught the government about this in the 50s.....
I see the problem. Climate models are created for political reason NOT science. Who pay the money get to decide what factor to use, what factor to ignore and therefore what result it will get.
cck. Exactly, follow the money you'll find the science
The Tongan volcano eruption in January is also playing a part in these record floods.
This seems like a good observation.
Definitely. That bad boy launched billions of tons of water into the atmosphere.
@@Sc50001 Have look at this I am not saying it is a fact but a good possibility.
ruclips.net/video/EZtRKbTdQVw/видео.html
Thanks rob, I agree with that. I live in Auckland and we've been experiencing until very recently cool winds from the south that were lowering the daytime temperature noticeably two or three degrees C. I'd read in one of digital science mags that the Tongan submarine volcano had thrown up enough sea water to increase the global amount of water vapour in the atmosphere (stratosphere?) by around 10 percent. That's quite a lot! Additionally, it had also thrown up a fair amount of sulphur dioxide and ash. "The plume was composed primarily of water with some ash and sulfur dioxide mixed in, said atmospheric scientist Simon Proud, lead author of the research published in the journal Science. Eruptions from land-based volcanoes tend to have more ash and sulfur dioxide and less water" - Reuters. The water vapour will fall out quickly enough, and the sulphur and ash is expected to cool global temperature for maybe 3 or 4 years starting in the southern hemisphere, and already crossing the equator to the northern. Research is going on to confirm this or otherwise. Meanwhile anthropogenic GHG emissions and climate heating with the ensuing chaos continue unabated. It's as though an umbrella has been temporarily put up to reflect some of the incoming solar radiation, but we'll see soon enough I guess.
@@brianwheeldon4643 Mmm, interesting. Thanks for the post.
Thanks for adding some helpful context to the nature of these complex weather patterns.
It seems the weather systems combined to create something of a perfect storm for Australia but added to this was the undersea volcanic eruption near Tonga in January 2022 that put an estimated trillion tonnes of water into the stratosphere that has increased the availability of moisture to add to the rainfall over Australia. Models can’t predict these events.
And volcanoes are movers of climate - that much we know... and we cannot control. Watch the documentary "536 AD: The Worst Year In History?" on RUclips.. you may realize that the climate's movers are beyond our control.
Things that occur outside of these events also come into play, such as the Tonga volcano that erupted, that is literally where El Nino or la nina sits off the east coast of Oz. The heat and sulphur etc was mostly in the ocean which did alter la nina and el nino plus the Antarctic southern dipole so much this caused the flooding.
All our energy is from the Sun.on Earth weather is from it.Heat below the crust is doing what it has todo.The Sun getting too much energy from the ( Cosmic Cloud);stated byNASA we are passing through.
Sun gets too much, ,we get too much. Work it out,we are cooking off our ice everywhere on Earth. Melting perma frost (/from below) methane out of melt and volcanic pressure relief world wide.
35 years ago they did a study of cores samples that were taken from the bottom of the Atlantic an Pacific Oceans. They looked at the plankton layers and came to the conclusion that right after every global warming event, there was a catastrophic ice age.
YUP! ITS ALL 'CYCLICAL' IS MY BELIEF.
LIFE IS NOTHING BUT CYCLES. ROUND AND ROUND WE GO!!
I WILL NEVER BUY " CLIMATE CHANGE" ALL BULLS💩💩T.....LITERALLY...AND GAS!!!! TOOT- TOOT!!😂
And we're still not out of the current ice age.
Yep, and according to some esoteric circles, this is a normal cycle that happened before and will happen again. It should be on us in around ten-twelve years or so. However, it is predicted as not to be catastrophic, but just dammed cold, very cold in fact, and for two or three generations. Get your fireplaces and firewood ready, electricity networks will fail on the northern parts of the Northern Hemisphere!
@ ERIC.... A long time ago when I was STILL in school, there seemed to be the idea that ANOTHER ice age or Mini-ICE age might be in our future? Maybe people should lay in their long johns??
Did they really need to look at plankton layers, did you say? Was it somewhere around 35 years ago ... this scouring the 2 largest oceans on the planet, but I guess they're boring down through the sea bed. getting some nice historic depositions of plankton over time, most recent layers are on top, & the lower you go ... seems pretty clear, huh Eric ... 5 yesrs ago, plankton dies, floats ever so slowly, lands on the sea floor,
plankton keeps floating, barely moving, but
"DOWN ... goes ... Frazier! ... sorry it's a boxing fight call. Probably the most famous heavey weight championship bout, between Fazier, & Muhamed Ali ... for the belt, Ali won I'm pretty sure, to either maintain his, "Heavy Weight Champion of the Woorold!"
title, or win it back, but I don't think Frazier ever did Beat Ali, not while he was still the Champ, George Frazier was a punishing puncher, & dominated virtually all of the early rounds, til about 8, & round 9, Ali wasn't winning those rounds either, but Frazier was starting to wear himself out from aggressively going on offense for the first half, & throwing so many punches, Ali didn't block many of them either, except with gut, & his head. A few times Ali did bob, & weave to avoid a couple of hard rights that could have knocked him clean out, so he did what he needed to do to keep going, & keep fightin' but Eric I'll bring this back to these less than honest, & misguided, or terribly misinformed "activists" we should call them, because they are always DEMANDING their government take this action NOW! or Net Zero by 2030! You all have to STOP using fossil fuels by 2025, or we'll glue ourselves to the pavement of a major Interstate, at least 4 lanes of Highway, maybe we'll block traffic going in both directions so that would be 4 ... 5 .. 6, hmm ... So is 8 after 6, or did I count wrong? I know I was told to threaten you horrible evil people ... who just want to kill grandma ... with you gas heaters in the Winter, & Grandma's cleaner burning natural gas for cooking, & heating, & hot water for washing her clothes, & doing the dishes, and shouldn't she get hot shower once, or twice a week weeknext month! action, & these climate hysteria of the out was very close in the fight I spoofed the great Howard Cossel's inflection, quick cadence & nasal whinedown like the biggest snowfall in hidtory top layer the older the layers of plankton laid down
Thank you, this is very interesting information on real science in the weather and oceanic patterns.😊
A first-time watcher who loves natural processes, which should keep all of us humble. I did enjoy your unbiased thought-provoking insights. Have not read any comments yet but there is a theory on RUclips that the massive Tongan Volcano has "turbo-charged" this year's La Nino effects for eastern Oz by releasing incredible amounts of water blown into our atmosphere and beyond (?) Personally, I'm impressed by how accurate forecasts usually are with all the variables at play. Especially down here in the SW Pacific with the roaring forties in play plus the odd ex-tropical cyclone. Christchurch NZ is set to break quite a number of rainfall records this year, but luckily nowhere near as crazy as Oz. I do look forward to watching your next video.
I'm in New Zealand, on the east coast of the South Island, which is known for being dry. In my lifetime I've seen changes, as a kid in the 80's just about every summer was drought conditions....great for harvesting crops but you needed irrigation to grow them in the first place. The last time we had a summer like that was 2014-15. Now irrigation doesn't seem as important, but grain dryers are as it's getting harder to dry crops out in the field.
I was just about to post a comment in a similar vein, but saw your comment, which by the way has top billing at the moment for this video. Apart from some flooding and slips, I think that for the last two years the weather here in NZ has been quite good because overall it has probably been good for agriculture and has kept the hydro lakes full.
Would hemp also have this problem?
@@Roger_Gadd I worry as similarly here in Europe, winters have been just cold enough to sustain Alpine economies. We may experience a very steep change if El Nino comes back with very warm winter in Europe and reading your comments, very dry summer in your region.
@@alexdubois6585 Yes, the El Nino weather pattern is a problem for NZ. As Pete mentioned, it was prevalent in the 1980s. I did a bit of unrelated analysis a few days ago, and interestingly, NZ farm animal biomass may have peaked in about 1986, and NZ farm animal methane emissions certainly peaked that year. But I suspect that the complete removal of farm subsidies here then may be what ultimately led to our reduction in farm methane emissions.
@@Roger_Gadd On the animal biomass, it's interesting that you say it peaked around 1986, because in Canterbury a lot of those mixed sheep/cropping farms which required irrigation in the 80s, but not so much now, have mostly become dairy farms. With the more regular summer rainfall we're now getting (plus irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer) those farms have way more animal biomass than back then....I guess one region doesn't represent the whole country.
As a resident of South East Qld I can see the result of your studies. We have been complaining about the colder wet summers for the last couple of years. Whereas we used to have top Summer temps of around 40C as a norm I don't think it got above 33C last year at all here. We had so many grey skies it was more like living in England than Australia lol. The only real advantage of it was the dams were all full. Thank you for this posting I found it informative and interesting.
In the uk this summer we hit 40.5 c totally unnatural 😒
Definitely went over 40 where I live in SEQ both last summer and the one before, hit 33 here just last week and we are not even in summer yet. The rain has been good I hope it stays
Just a note, whilst Sydney received record year of rain, Easter Australia and Australia overall had more rain over the three years 1973, 74 & 75. 2050, 2056, 2010 & 2011 were also much wetter. Just because the biggest city experiences unusual high rainfall, the past 3 years are by no means out of the norm for Australia. Feel free to get all the data directly from BOM site
Give me the cooler, wetter Aussie summer every time.
The dams that they didnt empty the top water off before the rains and caused the Brisbane floods as well as elsewhere you mean?
So... almost a quarter of the way into the 21st century and we've only seen one instance of an event that only happened four times last century; truly astounding.
no, you missunderstood. We've had it four years running (so far) when we only had four total years in the past century.
@@Tqoratsos666 Um, no. Go back and listen again at 1:19. The speaker is referring to the count of La Nina periods equal to or exceeding 3 years since 1900. I did make a minor error in my statement, in that i referred to last century, whereas the speaker was actually referring to the entire period since 1900, though it's not clear to me from looking at the actual data if he's counting the current event as one of the ones since 1900. Again, given that 24 La Nina events have occurred in the 123 years since the start of 1900, comprising 58 years in that period and most of them go for 2-3 years, I'm really not sure what point is being made, which was the general thrust of my original comment. I'm also not sure how to reconcile the statement with the actual data when you go and look at it, but I'm not going to go into that here.
Thankyou for excellent presentation style both vocally, textually and visually. Splendid and very interesting.
Lake George near Canberra is full for the first time in decades after three years of good rain. It is often completely empty during drought.
Back in the 1870s however it was twice as full so can't imagine how much rain was received back then before reliable rain records were held. There is a sign at a rest stop on the lake that indicates the level of the water at the time.
Tell why carbon reductuction emission and CHEMTRAILS on the sky why? Are the power to be use the bast solution for human race ?
Why people keep quiet and put up with everything and use starvation ,wars instead best solution? Because nobody have the brain to go take places and take the power away from parasites of this planet Banking Cartel.
Did any reliable recorded data exist?
I'm surprised no one here talk about of geoengineering programs. I have been back from a trip to Europe for a few weeks and I guarantee you that they sprayed the skies every day
@@KoDeMondo same in and around Montreal in Canada
The have been rain seeding in Australia as well. It’s on public record.
In primary school in the 70s we taught that the earth is slowly cooling . We also learned about a Herman Milankovich and orbital changes and how it effects climate.
Using GIS to factor in bathometry, topography and vegetation cover would help integrate variability and also the calibration of models using weather instruments can help identify some of the local variance at play to feed into the model
Don't forget to put atmospheric physics, water wapor, clouds in your models.
When I was growing up, meteorologists were a bit of a joke because it was the only profession where people could be wrong 90% of the time and still keep their jobs. On the rare occasion meteorologists spoke about weather beyond local reports it was all about the coming Ice Age. Fast forward 30 years and the Weather Channel has turned meteorology into one of the most highly respected professions out there. They're like soothsayer rockstars now, complete with their dour predictions and over-hyped weather events. The joke now is that every new weather pattern is given a kitschy name that sounds like a pro wrestler's finishing move. "He's got him in the Polar Vortex! Here come the Bomb Cyclone! It's over!!!"
I too remember that coming ice age. It was a wee bit of a 'thing' at the time, but with no world-wide-web it wasn't open to everybody - and only the cognoscenti were interested anyway (the rest of us read the girlie magazines. I did too, but I actually read both).
Meteorologists work with short term localized weather. Climatologists are scientists who work with long term cycles and trends. Listening to meteorologists about coming ice ages is like listening to your step brother who drives a tank for the army about his predictions on Russia's longer term strategic goals in Europe and then saying the military doesn't know anything when he's wrong. The consensus among climatologists for the past 100 years has been that the earth is warming regardless of what local meteorologists or news reporters said.
@@DRAT311 I thought climatology was a field within meteorology, kind of like how aerospace and nuclear engineering are fields within mechanical and/or electrical engineering. (But don't tell aerospace or nuclear engineers that!) Regardless, I was really just taking shots at the ever-increasing hyperbole coming from The Weather Channel.
@@DRAT311 My issue is that they are probably lying through their teeth. It not that I don't believe in Climate change. I believe in Climate Change. I just think it's not going along with their models and they can't figure out why. I think it's warming MUCH slower than they believe.
CO2 is a green house gas. And we pump a couple billion tons of it into the atmosphere on an annual basis.
But there should have been Congressional hearings and funding cut the second it became knowledge that NOAA was purposefully putting thermometers in black top parking lots to inflate the data.
When I was a child, the nightly weather forecast said we were going to have a dusting of snow. When I woke up in the morning and looked outside, there was almost 2 feet on the ground. 😅
I live in the riverina region and we just had two days of greater than 40mm rain....school cancelled, floods abound, severe thunderstorms all over the place. Interesting things to note, The Bureau here in Australia is investigating an upper level wind pattern which was noted over us last time rains like this occurred - lasting approx 10 years - the 1970's - when we flooded like this. I remember this period from my childhood with the 1974 floods. Adding to this was an exceptionally good snow season in the ranges that have filled the river systems. Lookin like we will get another Antarctic cold snap this week with more snow, very unseasonal. We still have a lot to learn about our weather patterns. On a side note, evidence of an inland sea is on the archaeological and aboriginal record here in Australia and is currently being investigated. The thoughts are that significant weather systems are the only way this could have occurred, so the future may hold some interesting discoveries on our weather patterns.
I am in NE Tassie, and I agree with your thoughts. The current weather patterns seen almost identical to the weather during the seventies, when it was almost too wet here to farm. Definitely seems that we still have a lot to learn about the Earth's weather.
Let's face it we don't have a friggen clue how long any patterns are and as they are only one part of what makes up climate chaos ... but those who "have the science " can pretty much make anything up and change their minds as fast as the weather, while claiming "that's what I've been saying all along".
The truth is, we are babes in the woods, like it or not.
like a tsunami. tide goes away befor all the water comes in. 2019 the tide was out. you guys wanted rain. 2019 convinced the most of you that man made climate change put yenz in a severe droubt. well so you got all the rain you ever wanted now lol.. whats thats saying?? careful whatchu wish for. seems to be a real kick in the nuts, doesn't it?
Pretty much an identical story for me on the NSW/ Vic border. Everything is sodden. The river systems are well and truely over full.
Like the poem says “a land of droughts and flooding rains”.
Plant trees
As an Australian I can confirm the weather report:
IT'S RAINING SIDEWAYS!
Thanks Ollie
I think I saw a fish!!
A reminder that the correct approach is to always be a servant to reality, even though models and patterns help.
And FWIW here in Brisbane, most years I've found that a chance of rain means it probably won't rain. We've had a few years though where a chance of rain means it probably will rain.
Could you please release your data?
Thanks.
Excellent presentation that is understandable for most people and makes us rather curious for the future. What is causing the strange weather pattern off the west coast of South America? That is a question I look forward to hearing the answer to. My request is to explain the weather patterns we're seeing in British Columbia. In 2021 and 2022 we had the highest temperatures ever recorded here, some of the worst fires and then late Fall flooding that was unprecedented in scale and actually cut Vancouver off from the the rest of Canada and USA.
So Aus needs multi-year water storage. When the 'dry' comes again, she will be bemoaning the lack of water. The only place to store that water is underground and the logical location is in the gigantic aquifers in the outback. More systems on the scale of the Snowy Mountain project are needed.
Practically all of the river systems have been dammed already , with consequential environmental problems, some of those massive problems.
Lake Eyre is a hundred feet below sea level - plenty of room for storage.
@@1EARTHARCHITECT . That's basically a gigantic evaporation pond, being a salt lake, which is only a few feet deep. & It's in the middle of nowhere.
That's a crazy idea.
@@1EARTHARCHITECT
Lake air is only 15 m below sea level
@@1EARTHARCHITECT and lake eyre has a 2 meter per year evaporation rate, so perhaps not a good place to store water for later use.
I've been living in Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, for over 55 years now and I keenly have accompanied weather pattern changes in my local area. During El Niño years (80s e 90s), summers were extremely hot (36+ C temperatures) with nearly sudden deluges and winters were mild with very dry conditions with occasional cold fronts (18 C) coming from the South and snowfalls in the southern tip of Brasil. During these 3 consecutive La Niña years, it was very difficult to tell winters from summers in Rio. It is like La Niña bucked the trends. The weather was quite balmy year-round, which means summers were on the very warm (32 C) range but not as hot as during El Niño years and winters (26 C) much warmer than average (22 C). This year of 2022, the winter season (Jun/Sep) was remarkably warmer with almost no cold fronts, some subtropical cyclones to the South and this Spring (Sep/Nov) has been exceptionally cool in Rio with even some cold snaps and beats me (blimey!) even a snowfall in early November at the southern tip of Brasil for the first time in recorded history. All in all, we're experiencing warmer than average yearly temperatures with a decline in average precipitation but with no extremes either on winter and summer. During El Niño years, Rio was in chaos during summer time due to heavy rainfall. As we're experiencing La Niña for over 3 consecutive years people have altogether forgotten global warming down south here. This is how "I feel the weather". I've been reading thermometers and observing weather during all these decades! :~)
I dont know where you live in rio, but never been so cold here . In copacabana / ipanema I never used jackets in winter , maybe one or 2 days, now have used even in October. Plus much less beach days this last 2 years. Summer being less warm and winter / fall / autumm much colder.
I’ve noticed something similar here in my part of the Mid Atlantic US. Winters have been mild enough that I don’t need my snowblower and summers are not as hot. There hasn’t been a string of days in the 100’s F and the week of bitter cold in January is gone too.
It's a scam.
@@UpliftingMusicbr do you remember 1974,75,76 ? Last time it happened ?
@@ricktd6891 ?
As always a great job.
Thank you
As I was tough many years ago, “All models are wrong, some are useful”
As a 80yo Australian I can assure you the La Nina currently being experienced is nothing out of the box. It maybe bit stronger than run of the mill La Ninas but nothing extraordinary.
The La Nina to La Nina cycle, with intervening El Ninos typically lasts 10-15 years. I can recall at least four strong La Ninas in my lifetime.
Like previous strong La Ninas, this one is likely to end suddenly with the outbreak of a Kelvin Wave off the Pacific coast of Ecuador.
My expectation is this will happen within twenty four months and that within forty eight months Australia will be in grip of drought and heat waves arising from a strong El Nino cycle.
Meanwhile a curious aspect of the current La Nina is that global sealevels are likely to drop measurably as many cubic kilometres of water are spread over the normally dry Australian continent.
Why, who needs instruments, and record keeping, when you can have one man's anecdotal assurances to bear witness.
@@secondotranquilli3973 sure , why believe yours eyes when experts are there to tell the truth and use your taxpayer money .
@@secondotranquilli3973 I'm curious as to what's your age, level of education and what sex you identify as. As humans mature they on the average learn to value and respect the knowledge of elders.
The major influence on our weather is the sun. It has an eleven year cycle. Perhaps that solar cycle is what causes the La Nina and El Nino cycle. We are currently in the upswing of solar storm activity in the eleven year cycle.
@@y2kmagna when you consider the atmosphere is 1/1000th of the diameter of the earth , it is incredible how it can be stable at all .
I'm surprised you haven't made the connection of the Tonga eruption back in January, which sent ash and water vapor higher than most other volcanos in recorded history! This is certainly having a huge effect on the weather patterns, especially in the southern hemisphere. The loses in crop production will be very notable!!!!
I think it was Krakatoa that cause the next year to not have a summer, and then kicked off The Black Plague.
The Tonga eruption is the reason the SAM has been driven persistently positive allowing wacky easterly winds to dump Pacific moisture across the east coast and east inlands; but generally speaking there's more heat in the entire system, warmer oceans increasing rains and under mining Antarctic ice-sheets allowing the great Antarctic glaciers to collapse a hundred times faster than they've been able to do during the past three million years.
a great video on the Tongan eruption in January 22 and the effect it might of had on the resent flooding in Victoria this year.
ruclips.net/video/EZtRKbTdQVw/видео.html
ruclips.net/video/EZtRKbTdQVw/видео.html
well, that was only this year and as mentioned in the video the trend has been going on longer...
As I live in Sydney Australia all I can add is it's not just the rain. It was preceded by bushfires and now an ongoing plague. No flooding problem for us thankfully. A lot of the flooding problems seem due to people being told it was OK to build in locations where it should have been obvious it wasn't. There's 10 year, 100 year and 1,000 year floods and probably 10,000 year ones. I think if you've got to ask "Does it flood here?", the answer is "Yes". Certainly part of the problem is Australia has a very flat interior skirted by not very high mountains which typically shield that area from rainfall however a lot of the rain that may fall on those mountains drains inland leading to places that have very low rainfall flooding.
the term 100 year flood is a planing term that has been abused
That is the first thing I ask when looking for a place to live. "Does it flood here?" That simple question saves a lot of headache later. I live in the PH BTW where flooding is the rule and not the exception.
@@peterritchie5593 Well aware if that. Just because you just had one it does not mean you'll not have another one for 100 years. Unfortunately I cannot think of a better way to express what it tries to denote.
Too bad Australia doesn’t have more dams. Weren’t there proposals to build some back in the day?
@@rogerknights857 We already have a lot of dams especially in the SNowy Mountains where the water is used for hydro, pumped hydro storage and irrigation. One problem is the scheme is jointly owned by Victoria and NSW. Add to that the conflict between water for irrigation and power generation and it's a real hot potato. That scheme is being upgraded to handle more pumped hydro energy storage. For the rest Sydney has a few dams and reservoirs to supply domestic water and there has been discussion about increasing the height of the spillway of one of them. The problem with anything West of Great Dividing Range is the country is very flat. There are some dams and weirs. Sure more would be good but we're really short of suitable locations.
I think I've burst a blood vessel trying to understand it but, wonderfully presented again.
If you're following your comment here then read this which explains video topic and is simple (faster big winds system. Something big with ENSO started 1995 but (this is important) I've not come across information whether it ended with 2015/16 big El Nino or whether it's stil existing as a long-term background trend. It's the warming tropical Atlantic Ocean surface as I've been informing in a comment since 2014. It's a classic power amplifier because tropical Pacific Ocean is 3.6 times as wide as tropical Atlantic Ocean.
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It started 1995. By 2012 the tropical Pacific Ocean easterly wind was a massive 30% (1 metre / second) stronger than pre-1995. I've not yet found post 2012-2021 wind stress plot so I don't know whether the big 2015/16 El Nino was the end of the massive 17 to 20 year Trade Wind surge. ENSO is an utterly-vast feature of Earth's surface-air.
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Quote: "Atlantic warming turbocharges Pacific trade winds Date:August 3, 2014 Source:University of New South Wales. New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s. The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001. It may even be responsible for making El Nino events less common over the past decade due to its cooling impact on ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. "We were surprised to find the main cause of the Pacific climate trends of the past 20 years had its origin in the Atlantic Ocean," said co-lead author Dr Shayne McGregor from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) atthe University of New South Wales."
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Quote: "The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers. Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature. Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century. The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push. “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” says Professor Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Professor Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Professor England says."
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Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus Nature Climate Change 4, 222-227 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 Received 11 September 2013 Accepted 18 December 2013 Published online 09 February 2014 Corrected online 14 February 2014
Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso "Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades-unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models-is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake."
Title "Are the climate models wrong??". In the case of this topic definitely yes per this published mainstream science following. Find quote "Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins" below because that's entirely what this video is about.
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Quote: "Atlantic warming turbocharges Pacific trade winds Date:August 3, 2014 Source:University of New South Wales. New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s. The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001. It may even be responsible for making El Nino events less common over the past decade due to its cooling impact on ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. "We were surprised to find the main cause of the Pacific climate trends of the past 20 years had its origin in the Atlantic Ocean," said co-lead author Dr Shayne McGregor from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) atthe University of New South Wales."
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Quote: "The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers. Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature. Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century. The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push. “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” says Professor Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Professor Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Professor England says."
----------------
Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus
Nature Climate Change 4, 222-227 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 Received 11 September 2013 Accepted 18 December 2013 Published online 09 February 2014 Corrected online 14 February 2014
Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso Affiliations
"Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades-unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models-is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake."
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It started 1995. By 2012 the wind was a massive 30% (1 metre / second) stronger than pre-1995. I've not yet found post 2012 so I don't know whether the big 2015/16 El Nino was the end of the massive 17 to 20 year Trade Wind surge.
Twenty years ago I was watching the discovery channel and basically they were saying when fresh water increases in the ocean the water cools. This makes sense that if ice melts it adds fresh water to a point where the ocean will cool and ice in polar ice caps to expand. Then the salinity of the ocean will increase and cause a warm up which has probably been happening since the beginning of time.
You missed a third factor in the unusual rains in Australia this year, the Hunga Tonga volcanic explosion. The blast it caused shot 146 terragrams of water into the stratosphere, adding to the other two factors. Ash and water (there wasnt much ash from it but there was huge quantities of water) in the troposphere falls quickly and isnt a long term concern. But Hunga Tonga shot it so high it entered the stratosphere, and that takes years to remove. It has a greenhouse effect that added to the system that is causing this weather. Im not sure if all the data on it is out yet though.
Some other weather channels have covered this. It's very interesting.
Tornado's, hurricanes ,have a effect on our climate,so does the taconic plate movement,and so do earthquakes,volcano's,and birds flapping their wings on other side of the world ,awww joy of climate change,in truth nobody can really change any of it,but keep trying,we haven't been on earth that long,maybe we will go poof,or maybe not,but fun to waste money....
Yeah all the billions spent on trying to change the climate, can be deleted by a single damn volcano. its a waste of money to try and fight nature.
Yup, that is one thing climate change activists always over look. We've had 400 years of increasing volcanic activity which makes anything we humans put out for CO2 and green house gases look like a fart in the wind.
Yeah, watch out for those terrorgrams - a million times worse than killergrams
There is a famous poem written by Dorothea Mckellar. It begins: I love a sun burnt country, a land of sweeping plains of rugged mountain ranges of droughts and flooding rains... All Australian who have been here for a few generations know about the reference to droughts and flooding rains in her poem, because we experience them a few times in out lives. With El Nino, we can experience drought for 10 year stretches, and usually coupled with it, is plenty of bush fires. I prefer la Nina, but sometimes the amount of rain is equal to the tropics. Darwin (in the tropical zone), for example has an average rainfall of 2 metres per year, so Sydney has experienced that amount of rain already.
It is worth noting that the Sydney sandstone geology was formed by high level and consistent erosion of some massively tall mountains, which have been replaced with the sandstone massifs now there.
Nature is our master, humans in the face of it are insignificant. Adaptation to the extremes, is the best strategy.
Yes, it seems that people with an agenda are more than happy to restrict the scope or timescale to suit their arguments. Australia has always been a land of extremes. But sure, force us all back to serfdom.
@@guser7137 If you are talking about the fascist left yes we will all end up either dead or as serfs, if we keep swallowing...the climate alarmist rubbish. The fascist Green left will only be happy once they bring in their preferred method of getting things done, AI and androids and anyone centre right in political views can abide by their way of doing things or go off to the Soylent Green factory.
But if you mean humans are destined for perpetual serfdom because of climate change, I would say yes unless you adapt. 95% of species that have ever existed on Earth are extinct now due to climate change, volcanism and meteorites and geomagnetic pole shifts or weakening and changes to our sun etc.
@@guser7137 - " und vot iz wrong viz a little serdom ? " - Kraut Shwarb 😫
@@guser7137 blah
@@ppetal1 You're welcome. My point still stands.
I have a friend who is a helicopter plot in the middle east. A new helicopter with the latest in carbon fibre technology and computer simulated testing was purchased by the company. The tail rotor fell off after a few hours flying. The experts from the factory came to inspect it and were puzzled and could not understand why it happened because the computer design should not have failed!!!
in Dynamic Control Theory, and increase in the amplitude and frequency of oscillations indicate the system is reaching the outter parts of the convergence region.
(convergence region is a region in the mathematical space of the variables - within the region the system moves around a pole and if it leaves it, the system will go to some other, unknown, pole)
I really appreciate the style, pace and content of your videos. Thank you!
Glad you like them!
@@JustHaveaThink look into the fact that we are supposed to be entering into an ice age right now we are burning fossil fuels to be able to prevent this ice age... I think it is important to regulate the temperature of the planet we need to be able to control our carbon footprint as well as being able to control the temperature of the planet through such implementations.
@@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler it's a bold experiment!
I can remember back when the "settled science" was that we were on the cusp of the next ice age. Time magazine ran issues with the subject on the cover. That was when I was in 6th grade. Then boom, I got into high school and the "settled science" was all in a tizzy over global warming.
BS. That wasn't settled science nor climate science. Mainstream climate science never predicted the imminent glacial period the news magazines and comedy shows in the 60s and 70s were telling us about - to prepare for the next Ice Age. Only those that fell for mass media hype especially those suffering from Dunning-Kruger effect bring up the claim that there were scientists telling us we were going into an ice age. All educated people know our planet is still in an ice age called the Quaternary Period.
Rasool and Schneider, Kukla, and a few others at the time thought the stall in global dimming that occurred 1940 to 1980 might continue and it was not a prediction, but that of speculation. Their papers were misinterpreted by lazy newspaper men, which was one of the reasons for the set off the ice age scare of the '70s.
It's weird though, because that idea was always in the minority of opinions, while global warming had been in the majority of opinions for that whole time including now.
Look into Nature, we see that we have both discovered, and are experiencing the Ice Age trigger
Many thanks! Great update!
Here in Cancún Mexico we've had warmer and wetter winters for three years running. I've also noticed that South Africa has had a lot of rain this year
From what I've read they've plugged in data from past years into the models and they get wildly different results from what actually happened.
Models based on human made expectations rather than actual data. As well as cherry picking historical data like increases in tornado report through the 90s after the implementation of a satellite monitoring system and recording F0 tornadoes when F1s were hardly reported in the past. Most of the hottest recorded temps are in the 1930s but the data we are shown begins in the 80s
@@Kalicdire Most of the hottest recorded temperatures where? Talk about cherry picking.
@@tonyclayton6975 all over the world
@@Kalicdire That is simply not true. If you believe it is, show me the data.
@@tonyclayton6975 just google heat records, you’ve made it clear you wouldn’t believe anything he said anyway.
Eastern Tasmania has been trending wetter over the last decade or so. Maybe it is the circumpolar West Wind Drift, positioning southward that is causing this. This is a good video on the Southern Hemisphere's weather and climate, thanks JHT.
Different strange things have been happening now I have been witnesses of what is going in Amoc system because I live in Poland and the UK.I have vineyard in Poland and I'm checking weather frequently.Summers are definitely not warmer but winters are warmer in Poland . I have noticed over active Atlantic circulation with much rain in Poland.it used to be -35 a decade ago in winter now there is a rain and max -9C with maritime climate style effect.Cold dry air pushed further east.I guess atmosphere is trying to get rid of warmth form Atlantic ocean
There is another commenter from the south east coast of NZ saying similar about the extra wettness.
I am just north of Melbourne on land, and watch WeatherwatchNZ youtube channel for good forcasting if you need it. It has lots of Tassie reference on it that seems to be lacking on Australian forcasts.
see....ruclips.net/video/p5f84V4hwcw/видео.html on models
They have been cloud seeding since 1947 you can look it up on RUclips they are not trying to hide it, most of it’s done by the military and contractors I live on the south shore of the St. Lawrence river and there are days when you could play checkers in the sky ,chemtrails last and then form wispy clouds ,vapour trails Disperse within 30 seconds so they are not the same
The persistent la Nina also seems to be affecting the decline of arctic ice, which had a record minimum extent in 2012 that it has non exceeded, though it has gotten close, since.
Sydney Australia just had 10 mornings in a row below 15 degrees C in summer ( December 2022 ).
That has NEVER been recorded before.
my utility provider shows temps have been cooling year after year for years now. they track temps and show our energy usage compared to cost and temps and you can save your data out, but if you don't they'll let you see 2yrs back. it's been getting cold year after year here in the US for multiple years now.
In North West Tasmania, there has been a noticeable change over the years, but if you could go back far enough, you would no doubt see constant change. But I think the major change is the number of people living in areas more likely to be affected by floods, fires, etc.
So the real number and magnitude of floods and fires equals the number and magnitude floods and fires divided by the number of people affected? Got it 👍
Any change you notice over the years is anecdotal. Humans don't control the weather.
@@BrianStDenis-pj1tq Your first statement is illogical. If I notice the sun moving across the sky throughout the day there is nothing anecdotal (unreliable) about it. Change is change. Whether that short-term change is indicative of a long-term effect can *sometimes* only reliably be determined by accurate scientific measurements, but there are a multitude of cases where observed change is obviously indicative of long-term systemic change. There's nothing anecdotal (unreliable) about watching a glacier disappear over a person's lifetime. Your second statement redeems you somewhat. Humans don't control the weather, control implies the ability to direct something toward a desired, determined outcome. Instead we provide a forcing, a push toward chaos with the pollution from our activity, as we are now seeing. We have absolutely no control over it, but will have to weather the consequences.
@@geoffcapper5025 that not what he said - at all.
@@geoffcapper5025 This is a statistics issue. The measure of temperature that you can observe daily, typically reported as the daily high temperature, fluctuates wildly. The global mean temperature, made up of millions of square miles of wildly fluctuating temperatures cannot be observed over a few years in a single location nor in a dozen locations. This applies to every global weather statistic, from rain to tornadoes to melting glaciers. Local observations are statistically unrelated events compared to the global trend. And, as you surly know, its already been hotter on this planet than it is now, and its been colder also. There has been more CO2 in the air than now in the past. So, again, measuring a few years or even hundreds of years really doesn't tell us cause and effects in such a chaotic system.
I heard news in the past day that our 3rd year of La Nina is actually showing signs of abating (yet it's only marginal so far). Here in Sydney, we have certainly experienced a particularly milder and wetter summer than is typical around here. The news article suggested we should shift towards at least a neutral, if not El Nino condition by late 2023. The downside to El Nino (for us) is that condition is often associated with heat waves, droughts and fires (especially following wetter seasons that promoted more undergrowth)
Costa Rica saw the heaviest rainy season in decades last year. The dry season was milder than usual. We'll see what this year brings.
Unlike other parts of the Earth, Australia is uniquely placed as a single continent, with 4 weather patterns around it. In some ways it is a plain model for it is rather flat, and has a large desert heart. It has been a while since I saw storms traveling across the landscape from the Indian Ocean. It has rained on and off for the last 3 years, and the ground is saturated, and Lake Eyre is filling up.
Certainly cyclical. The question is of timescale. Migratory birds have been aware that Lake Eyre can and does become wet.
"The land of drought and flooding rains,
Bushfires and blowing dust,
Never rains when you want it to,
When it does it's too bloody much."
I farm in the Wimmera district and this has been the case since settlement.
Australia has really big rivers with even bigger floodplains for a reason even though they are mostly not much more than a trickle.
Our problem is we have built cities on those floodplains. We also use the floodplains for intensive agriculture and some years we get washed out and some we are droughted out.
Nothing new to report here.
Really enjoyed listening to your very educational and informative channel. Well done! Thank you.
It's incredible how many youtube comments are able to dismantle decades and thousands of studies about climate change in mere seconds. Your free thinking without any kind of political bias at all is astonishing. Pat on the back yourselves. You're amazing!!!
Please list all the adverse climate predictions by your thousands of studies from, say, the last fifty years that have come true. (To help you, there aren't any.)
@@MrCSutton you have a few of them at the IPCC reports ;)
Pablo Balbontín Yeah I've found it hilarious for 10 years. Really could they even be any more transparently having no interest at all in the science and only in their money ? I think not. I think they couldn't possible show more clearly their SOLE interest in life .. M O N E Y. It's hilariously comical. Most of them are sock puppets, they have empty "Channels", accounts set up only for trolling climate change videos with cut'n'paste parroted Drivel Memes that have been concocted for them by professional liars, it's quick'n' easy. 9 years ago I had several exchanges with a "Gina Titnaw" before a bloke told me she's a sock puppet account of a bloke who works for a Ruzzian oil company. Some of them are obviously A.I. computer programs now, they are good but not so good that you can't spot them robocalling in the comments.
We live in the foothills of Jaramillo in Chiriqui in western Panama. Being in the tropics we have reliable wet and dry seasons. What we have witnessed (due to La Nina) is an early start (starting right now instead of mid December) to the dry season, but record rainfall in the wet season. So far this year we have had over 240 inches (20 ft, or over 6.0 m) of rain, whereas in a normal year would have between 150 and 180 inches.
Have you looked into the fact that they are still excluding solar forcing in these models, but are now about to be forced to acknowledge it?
I wanted to learn more information so I searched what caused past global glaciations (aka Ice Ages) and I found my answer. To synopsize, Earth's distance from the sun fluctuates and we currently are in a closer, warm phase that we're about halfway through. In a few hundred years the next event will start cooling Earth and then the climate will get colder pretty quickly but the full change to Ice Age takes many hundred of years or more which is why people can't actually discern it for themselves. Ice sheets two miles thick crush to dust ANYTHING humans can build and when they retreat due to warming unbelievably torrential flooding follows and continues for millennia, meaning that between the ice and the flooding any evidence and accomplishments of possible somewhat advanced prior civilizations might be completely obliterated and washed away.
How are they about to be forced?
Or increased atmospheric moisture due to warming. Anything to avoid admitting the anthropogenic drivers of current climate change. La Nina patterns are part of the event not contrary to it.
@@bobbygetsbanned6049 do you understand the basics of climate science?
Solar cycles and solar activity, volcanic activity, are important into short time models (periods about 100 years). New models could include them as important factors, not like nowadays excluded by "ceteris paribus"
Interesting video! Great to get a small insight into how real world data is being collected and published to improve global climate models. These models are a good example of global collaboration. I wish to response to some of the comments on this video: the papers highlighted here show there are some unknown factors in the climate models which may be leading to inaccuracies (which is inevidatable, as it is a very complex model). My guess is that the models are based on historical records taken from ice, and that the full impact of human activity since the industrial (fossil fuel) revoltion is hard to factor in. As real world data is collected, the models are improved. Unfortunately, increasing extreme whether events such as droughts and flooding are increasing due to human activity as predicted in many IPCC reports. There's no 'get of jail free card'. So, urgent and drastic changes are needed. Specifically, moving away from fossil fuels and transitioning to a circular economic model rather than a linear one, and restoring natural habititats, moving to regenerative farming rather than industrial agriculture...and big respect to this channel for highlighting many of these solutions! Myself, I'm studying Green Building at CAT in Wales. My course is about how to adapt our built environemnt to be more energy efficient and to cope with more extreme weather, using low-impact materials. Thanks to Just Have a Think for the excellent and high quality content! Best regards, Liam
Don't waste your time, most of the comments are "BuT cLimAtE cHaNgE iS a HoAx"
A very interesting and very affordable Kindle edition regarding climate is Javier Vinos book "Climate of the Past, Present and Future: A scientific debate" , 2nd ed. The book is an overview of much of the science. While a great deal of it may be over the heads of readers it's possible to get a good idea of the meaning nonetheless.
I live in the andean part of Colombia and although we have seen 70% more rainfall than normal in the rainy season, which is something expected, what really intrigued me was how our temperatures during the dry season in the coldest months of the year have managed to reach below 0°C, something we are not used to see. And let me remind you again that I live in a pretty highly elevated place.
Very well written for a Andre's man ;)
You are lying! Let’s forget for a moment about you being here to confuse dullards.
Tell why carbon reductuction emission and CHEMTRAILS on the sky why? Are the power to be use the bast solution for human race ?
Why people keep quiet and put up with everything and use starvation ,wars instead best solution? Because nobody have the brain to go take places and take the power away from parasites of this planet Banking Cartel.
Earth’s magnetic field is thinning rapidly and solar flares are penetrating deeper into the atmosphere. Find a high altitude cave to shelter in just in case the magnetic shield thins further-- which it is trending to do and warm clothes and blankets. This weather forecaster is not paying attention to the sun’s cycles or earth’s thinning magnetic shield.
@@rivergrrrl1256 Interesting. ...Who measured the magnetic field and how ?
The problem with most climate models is, that they take the sun's output/activity as a constant. The way scientists who point at the sun are mostly ignored reminds me of the movie "Don't look up".
bingo! Earth receives more energy from the Sun *in just one day* than all of humanity combined uses in 25 years - solar output varies by around 3%, however that variation is only a tiny speck of data as we've only been recording it for a very short time in a 4 billion year history
also Earths' magnetosphere is highly variable as is Earths' orbit and Precessional wobble - modern 'science' and their models ignore all these factors
Some scientists claim Suns Spektrum changed to more visible Light( longer waves) and less shortwaves causing earths warmup.
Suspicious observers RUclips channel covers this
Excellent comments. Here in Thailand it has been cooler and wetter these past two years which is to be expected with La Nina.
The less you know, the hotter you feel.
I'm a Hawaii resident since 1962 I have seen significant changes in the patterns here, and we have the (usually) advantage of a lot of water to moderate the changes. But the NE Trade Winds which were the predominate pattern here are now rare. The wind more often comes from the E. and has less velocity, and we have week long periods of near windless conditions. Temps are higher, on average. A HOT day was in the high 80s F. and now we have some weeks where the temps bounce around 90F, even approaching 100F. in some areas. Rainfall patterns are very different. Coastal erosion is now an economic threat, as beaches disappear and homes are threatened. Coral reefs are not doing well and large food fish are disappearing, with attendant price increases.
Just imagine the catastrophic swings you would have observed if you were 15,000 years old
@@mattbrew11 Or fifteen million. Or a hundred and fifty million. So what?
@@kimweaver1252 so the climate has been literally unlivable for humans countless times before we got here and will continue to become that way long after we are gone. Thats if a comet strike like the one that ended the last ice age and wiped out 90% of humans did 11,000 years ago doesn’t get us first.
What I hate is they are spraying chemtrails to change weather patterns and no one is accounting the changes to them, I have seen it over and over were they have used it to create droughts and floods.
The rain is toxic now full of nano particle aluminum coating all it comes into contact making everything a fire danger, if you are still allowed to have your water tested for the aluminium with a electron microscope you will see what I mean.
Your comments do not match the data. I suggest you stop imagining problems and educate yourself on the true weather patterns of your area. Your comments here do not reflect reality. You are indulging in propaganda.+
Your video title actually made me think of one of my most favourite citations from George Box, one of the founding fathers of industrial statistics: “All models are wrong, but some are useful!” Pointing to the problem that all models however sophisticated, will always make simplifications or assumptions, which cannot be proven! And as the comments before this suggest in this case it might be a single event was not part of the long-term global models as it was not possible to predict. And I also believe it is extremely difficult to actually measure, or separate from a legion of much smaller but also very impactful events. That is the challenge with observational data, you can never be sure if you have not overlooked or dismissed an important influence… ;-) So if you are in the fortunate position to be able to design your experiments, do make use of this and check out the fantastic method of statistical experimental design!
"Useful" to commit fraud and enact "lockdowns" which is a euphemism for imprisonment + slavery
Good reply. If you notice, china was in great trouble last year with the yellow river dam overflowing. Its almost empty at this point! Other places like the Hoover dam is also almost empty...BUT other DRY places are quite wet.. unusually so. El Nina is the issue!
I've lived in Melbourne (Australia) for 30 years and the weather has most definitely cooled; we rarely have a spring just a very long and tiresome winter.
same here in NZ, nearly December and still got the fire going.
This is crazy how the weather is changing around the world. Drought in some areas and to much rain in another part of the world. I think that the weather will hit harder because hot and cold don't mix mlm
Ironically the extreme rain has been a welcome event in South Australia being the driest state and it has been the most rain I have ever seen in my 50 years and the mildest summer so far.
Are the climate models wrong?? About this huge thing ? YES ! ABSOLUTELY (UNLESS CORRECTED SINCE 2014) ! AND KNOWN SINCE 2014 OR EARLIER ! NOT NEWS IN THE SLIGHTEST ! Here's the scientific paper. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus Nature Climate Change 4, 222-227 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 14 February 2014 Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso "Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades-unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models-is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake."
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Quote: "The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers. Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature. Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century. The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push. “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” says Professor Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Professor Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Professor England says."
I remember being in South Australia due to work in November each year between 2000-2011 and when I see the Temps today I am amazed as they are 10c+ (21F approx) below what they were back then and in some years even higher differential between then and now. Back then it rarely rained more than 2-3 days the whole month of November.
Sadly very few of these people are capable of even comprehending how UNDERMINING ones own argument applies in this case, laying ALL the blame for every unusually common unusual weather event, every weather related natural disaster HOT, or COLD ... WET {floods), or DRY {drought}significantly FEWER MAJOR HURRICANES, each year {Cat. 3, & higher striking the US mainland} than historical related natural disaster, another IRONIC benefit natural disaster-phobia
@@kellyowens1868 100% correct Kelly. The cultists are so brainwashed they see ever weather event through the CC/GW spectrum. Weather is weather and varies constantly for a thousand(or more) different reasons yet for them it is always Climate change etc not simply variable weather.
The stupidity of their argument becomes even clearer when they contend extreme heat and extreme cold comes from the same thing which totally turns science on its head. You cannot have extreme heat and extreme cold in the same place in a greenhouse. Greenhouses keep temperatures stable not wildly variable from one extreme to the other.
Nothing they contend complies with science.
I've lived in south east Queensland for forty years and I can't say I've noticed any huge difference in weather patterns. We don't appear to have had any particularly long dry periods (in fact, probably the opposite). For the most part we seem to have had milder summers and definitely cooler winters. Further inland is obviously a different story but a lot of the drought problem for farmers is the failure to adopt proven natural regenerative and rehydration principles.
I’m an ocean sailor and this topic absolutely fascinates me. Amazing how you fit so much weather/climate information into less than 12 minutes. I’ll be rewatching this video and taking notes. Thank you so much for what you do!
@Be Well On sailboats, the west coast of British Columbia/Vancouver Island; on tugboats I’ve been around from Alabama/Panama Canal/West coast of US/Canada and Western Alaska through the entire Aleutian chain and on up past Nome.
@@amandalillet1056 you should post some videos here.. would be nice to see a raw visualization of this.
@@luismoref That’s an interesting idea. Any video I’ve taken is indeed very raw with no production standards and so I hadn’t thought it would be interesting to people.
@@amandalillet1056 I don't know if you're going to be a big star of RUclips. huahuahuah but these type of life style is fascinating to see raw. When there's a lot of production it seems a little fake or don't show the downsides. Hope you do this. I'll subscribe to you just in case. ☺️
The harm caused by the Australian rain events was due largely to bad planning decisions, in building dense housing in flood plains, and in insufficient attention to preventive infrastructure. This tends to be the origin of the harm inflicted by most catastrophic events.
Here in Idaho the glaciers are quickly building depth and advancing in the lower valleys. We expect Boise to be plowed under by ice in three decades.
thanks once again for making extremely comprehensive videos that anyone can understand! We need people to understand the science in order to take action
The most accurate thing he said was the models are wrong. He says the researchers don't know what's going on.
Then the researchers make a prediction that GHG induced climate change will reverse the current trend and cause calamity.
There is no science to understand. Their models are consistently wrong. The only science they are doing is cherry-picking the data to scare you into the action of disrupting your life and paying more taxes with the absurd idea that the government can control the weather.
Science hahahaha 🤣
Problem with climate change is things change an I find it hard to believe they know exactly the damage an the way it should change. Look predicting the weather a week ahead is barley possible now yet I'm suppose to believe you know what the weather will be in 30 year's from now 😂 to be clear obviously global warming is a thing but saying what it'll be in decades from now is ludicrous, our planet evolves it has for past couple billion years, planet will be fine however those rich elites that run everything an live mostly on beaches, Florida,Cali, Hawaii surely will have to relocate. Don't think that has anything do with this do you?
@@notinterested8452
Trust the science, trust the science, squack.
Rainfall here in Canberra, Australia (inland far south east corner) is running about 50% above average this year. This comes on the back of two years of well above average rainfall. I've never seen it looking so green. Rivers have a lot of water flow but luckily we are not susceptible to flooding around here. The severe drought and fires of 2019 are slowly fading from memory.
There will be more droughts
There will be more floods.
Australia!
They'll be back...
(Apologies to Arnold)
Canberra. Do people actually live there?
Thank your lucky stars!
@@petercoxable I think I saw one last week. Hard to see through the foliage so it could have been a kangaroo.
Very interesting questions you are posing in this video. I wonder if this doesn’t deserve some additional scrutiny by those doing the
meteorological modeling that will be used to
drive current and future policies. One has to wonder just how accurate these modeling
scenarios actually are, and how accurately do
they reflect what is actually going on?
I wonder if these important questions will
ever be looked into by the very policymakers
we rely upon?
Lots of good big picture overviews regarding the El Nino~/La Nina~ phenomenon. However, in summation scientists don't really know what causes them, and they were happening long before the internal combustion engine was invented. In my humble opinion they are caused by variations in solar energy, and perhaps underwater volcanic activity.
I think this prolonged La Nina is in part driven by the solar cycle.
Between 2010 and 2012 there were 22 La Nina months.A fairly solid block of La Ninas.Roughly 10 years later the same thing has happened again, albeit a bit longer this time.
all climate is controlled by the Sun - humans have absolutely nothing to do with it
Scientists.. the people yet to get climate change models right after fifty years of crystal ball guesses?
The solar wind cycle. Sun spots. Is an 11 year cycle. And in 2024 we will encounter the grand solar minimum. Predicted to bring a mini ice age
@@TheBelrick
crystal ball guesses? never knew they were that sophiosticated! i was sure they tossed coins!
How dare you comment here about things only one person knows about who is not you! 😂 I think we found the channel troll. 😉
I live in Arizona, our monsoon this year was record breaking in many spots.
Tim,
I like your model. I got it, just remember the figure 70!
A question.. could the crust upwelling (hot spot under the crust due to up-welling of magma etc have anything to do with this. there is a hot spot off the East Coast of NZ and there also seems to be an increase in volcanic activity there and around chain of fire...Thanks also for these videos... i enjoy your questions with out the hype and drama. Cheers from a New Zealander living in Austria
I know this one: volcanic activity all combined the crust over/under water does not even come close to the CO2 levels by Man and his burning approx 100 million barrels of oil per day.
The long term forecast for the PNW and California back in October claimed that Oregon would be a bit wetter than normal and California would be drier than normal. Here we are at then end of December and the Umpqua River is approaching flood stage and LA is expected to get 8 inches of rain in the next 6 days. So much for climate models
I would like to see a "Just have a think" episode on the sun cycles. I watch them closely and it appears we are beginning a new cycle that will have a low number of sun spots indicating a lower amount solar radiation in certain parts of the spectrum and more gamma rays which quite possibly affects cloud formation.
This change in Sun activity also increases earth quake and volcanic activity.
When are we going to talk about how most solar energy is not in UV or the Visible Spectrum, and its dominance in determining the various yearly and decadal weather cycles?
Or that the Farmer's Almanac bases their predictions on solar weather, not IPCC models.
@@David-135 what mechanism? I’ve never heard of this.
What happened to the massive global cooling that the sunspot enthusiasts promised us from the last solar cycle?
@@float32 I guess you're a slave to your 5G vaccine chips. Or something.
Wouldn't it be nice if we had a social media platform that excluded the dingbats?
If we’d started planting millions of trees per annum - hundreds per annum per person - 40/50 years ago we’d be fine right now ….. vegetation not only drives - is - the CO2 // O2 cycle but is also totally the hydrological cycle too. …..
But now, several trillion trees short, we’re toast ……😮😢😮😢😮😢
Well, Update 2023: nothing is cooling. Every thing is hotter than ever.
There was the problem of fall out from the Tonga volcanic event. There's a video on it by an Australian news channel.
I’m sure you’ve covered all the weather patterns in other videos but I found this video helped explain some of the patterns we hear about. Thanks for the detail. What I think would be really helpful is a video on all the major ocean current patterns and what maybe the issues with them as climate changes even if the scientists are not sure of the whole picture
It’s also the global poisoning that has decimated our insect population leading to all the birds missing; thus their flapping wings no longer a factor; how do you get that into the computer?
@@1EARTHARCHITECT LMAO
The truth of the matter is that we have neither the computing power nor the amount of initial data that would be necessary to properly model the earth's climate, including ocean currents. Just like this video, where what seems to be happening is contrary to existing models, what we have are just "toys that are nice to play with in the laboratory" (Dr. Mototaka Nakamura in "The Global Warming Hypothesis is an Unproven Hypothesis."
@@kirklaird8345 Or a conspiracy theory ?
I'm in Tasmania, and as a keen sailor I have kept a close eye on the weather since forever. Weather patterns here have definitely changed in the last thirty years or so. Being in the "Roaring Forties", spring is usually really unsettled here, and brings repeated cold fronts with quick showers and especially very strong winds. Piss and wind weather, which makes the job of antifouling a yacht and getting it dry long enough to paint a real pain. This year we've barely had a single westerly buster that is enough to blow your hat off, nothing like the sixty knot gusts that we usually get. What we have had instead are huge low pressure troughs bringing moist air all the way from northern Oz, spreading down here from the east and hanging over our island literally like a dreary wet week. In fact there's one over my head right now and it's going to be here until next weekend; hardly any wind, but unending lowering skies, although not as much rain as it has dumped on the mainland.
Some have said Tonga's volcanic eruption had influence on the weather this year...
Did you know an ex NASA employee testified in the Aussie parliament that NASA where giving false ocean temperatures readings in the waters around Australia, it was on RUclips the video...
Claiming that your observations over "30yrs or so" are "forever" is pure nonsense. Half Human lifetime perspectives on weather patterns are worthless.
@@torqueover Of course, we have another "expert" here. Funny, how the "experts" show up in comments on youtube. So, "expert", why don't you enlighten us clueless people how things really are? The all knowing torqueover will have all the answers.
@@autohmae your right the Tongan volcano blasted huge amounts of moisture into upper atmosphere
With quite strong trade winds it was carried all the way across 2 us .
The low dumping rain on the northern rivers region just sucked it all in.🤟
This year, and probably next year aswell, there's also the influence of the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption. It's inpact is bigger than initially thought, specially on Australia, but also worldwide. For instance NASA reported about this.
Fires then flood. My heart goes out to Australia. Awesomely resilient people.
The aborigians really are resilient are'nt they?
At least one of earths biggest coal extractor, get a taste of theire own gloal impact, rather then the usual 3 world countries
@@zombi3lif3 As a Zimbabwean I always found the term "3rd world" funny... as if you'd portal through some stargate or wormhole (two of them) to get here. 😅🤣
@@zombi3lif3 And in English ?
@@princetate1586 all the animals in the outback are, so yes.
I live in Cairns on the far northern tropical coast of Queensland and is the wettest city in Australia. The tropical climate here is quite interesting with the trade winds blowing for months at a time bringing moisture to the coast even in the so called 'dry season'. I absolutely LOVE the rain, so this doesn't bother me however my heart goes out to regions in southern inland Australia. These regions have relatively flat topography, narrow rivers and infrastructure that isn't really suited to wet conditions. Worse still is the fact that most of the water will either run out to sea via the Murray River or just evaporate in the months to come. It's a shame some of the water couldn't be saved and used by our southern agricultural regions, though I know this gets quite political so.
Don't worry, all our dams are full now, we have more than enough water for irrigation.
Most of the land won't need irrigation for the rest of the year and into 2023.
Dartmouth dam is full for the first time since 1996 at 102%.
Many floodplains on the Murray/Darling are flooded, the River Gums will live a little longer.
The entire river environment needs water flow and flooding , we use far too much of it and are killing those 2 great rivers.
The Coorong in SA especially is in dire need of large flows of fresh water yearly, this years they will get a good flush.
Lived in Cairns myself for 4 years, Vic is a bit like that now, wet, just colder!
Jason Tempest - it's no use relying on beurocrats to come up with planning solutions. They're paper shufflers.
I am sure it's feasible to harvest that water in underground reservoirs to to supply a massive growing area.
It would be great to see Australian desert turn into lush tropical greenery. Check out Brazil"s Terra Preta.
@@kelduck8851 That isn't long and before you know it, we'll be back to drought conditions with the next La Nina. I'm not old but I've already seen these cycles repeat time over again and again. Anyway I know my region will be well watered regardless but what about the southern inland?
I'm surprised no one here talk about of geoengineering programs. I have been back from a trip to Europe for a few weeks and I guarantee you that they sprayed the skies every day
The winter of 22-23 was a record year for snow on the West Coast of America. This was supposed to be during a La Nina. It ended the drought for the time being. I also wonder what effect, if any, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Volcano had.
Everybody wonders what effect, if any, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Volcano had. It's like the new "nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition".
There’s something you missed about La Niña’s effect on the USA that’s really obvious now several months later. If you look at any map generalizing La Niña’s effects over history, you will notice that the greater Pacific Northwest, all the way down to North California, is supposed to get more precipitation than usual. This has happened on a massive scale in the past few months, though for whatever reason it’s moved a bit further south than usual. Consequently the rains have also penetrated into the Colorado river basin, but the distinct lack of precipitation there when compared to California still suggests that this is a typical La Niña effect.
The current weather patterns match what i experienced as a 9 year old child in the 70's.
Exactly I can remember clearly we thought it was never going to stop and for a kid that's not good, bloody rain.
I would rather have MORE rain than less. Australia has had some viciously dry years. Interesting presentation. Excellent as usual.
I agree, John. Vicious is the word alright. If you have lived on a farm you will know the effect they have on people. I remember hearing of one farmer who was in such despair because of the effects of one such drought, one day went out and shot his livestock and then shot himself. I know floods can be tragic and cause a lot of damage and loss of life, but most floods in Australia are usually single, short-term events and communities recover fairly quickly afterwards (except of course when you get one flood after another which has happened this year). Droughts, especially those that go on for years, cause far more damage to the land, even more so if it is accompanied by bushfires. Nevertheless, whether it is a flood or a drought, land and wildlife populations on the whole do recover. With the third consecutive La Nina, inland Australia has undergone a huge transformation with consistent rainfall. Flooding has made farming challenging but I think more water inland is preferable to none at all.
Never forget the golden rule of computer modeling - Garbage in equals garbage out. Computer models in many cases are designed to "look for" an expected result. Most times if the expected result isn't achieved, the input data will be changed, to get the expected result instead of standing back and evaluating if computer modeling is even appropriate. There has been a trend in recent years to "just believe" whatever the models predict without question, which flies in the face of common sense and good science. This is a why no political body should base any policy on computer modeling...real world measurements are the only sensible method of creating policy.
You've made a general implication of an entire field of science. Be specific. Who? When? (We are aware of the slander and how it was debunked)
The models also don’t deal with the thinning Ozone layer over the South Atlantic (South Atlantic Anomaly). The models are assuming a mostly homogeneous atmospheric conditions overall.
I am on the north coast of New South Wales. It has been a wet few years however I am now in my 60’s and I have seen many years of flooding and drought. I don’t see it all as abnormal in any way. La Niña has done this before and will no doubt do it all again. I remember seeing similar floods back in the 60’s, long droughts as well, the only difference I can say is the bushfires are worse because we have not kept up control burns for 40 years and there is way too much fuel on the ground.
Totally agree. I am in my 70s living in Sydney. This countries history is drought, fire and flood. An "eminent" professor "expert" claimedsome years back we would not have enough rain to foll our dams. They built no new dams built an expensive desalination plant. The plant has hardly been used and dams all up the east coast are full.
These models you talk of are only models, a total waste. Decent climate scientists will tell that climate mechanisms are extremely complicated. Good luck tryi g to predict anything.