@@dayvaughnmonroe9540 DUDE, same! I was caught off guard to immediately feeling emotional. Knowing the story, there’s so much subtle pain and sadness in that opening number when she’s singing. The film immediately won me over.
Tbh her clip is the dance scene. She gives so much emotion without saying anything. And it’s when her character arc shifts and thus the arc of the story in the 2nd act
I'm old enough to remember what the internet buzz on the movie "Chicago" was like when it opened over 20 years ago. "Chicago" like "Wicked," was a highly anticipated adaptation of a beloved stage musical. Some in Hollywood were skeptical that making Chicago's musical numbers figments of Roxie Hart's imagination would work as a story device. Basically, it was seen as a desperate attempt to attract movie-goers who say they hate musicals because people don't spontaneously break out in song and dance in real life. But the movie got positive if not swooning reviews and was a commercial hit. In fact, its surprising commercial success brought on a bit of an online backlash. Even folks who liked the film began to snipe that while it was an enjoyable, well-crafted film, it couldn't hold a candle to the great musicals of the past. When it won best picture, many film people chalked it up to nothing more than Academy members showing some affection for musicals, a sorely missed genre that people had apparently forgotten how to make and that audiences no longer liked. The parallels Wicked has with Chicago are uncanny. Both are film adaptations of popular long-running Broadway shows that weren't made until decades after they first appeared on stage. Both projects were said to be impossible to be made into a film. Both films were met with skeptical musical fans who took issue with casting choices. Both got better reviews than was expected. And both faced backlash when folks began discussing them as awards contenders and the films started to rake in cash. I think some people underestimate how much industry professionals in general, like the musical genre, especially when they are made with old-school movie craftsmanship as was done in the case of Wicked.
We’ve also been so far removed from a musical Best Picture winner, that it kinda feels like if one is due. We got incredibly close for a La La Land win. But Wicked could just be the film to do it. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was able to cross the finish line in this wide open year of a race.
Yes. Absolutely. The parallels to Chicago are hard to miss. And looking back, I think Chicago was a great winner. One of my favorites. Wicked would be the same. Also all the boomers I know are going crazy for wicked. That's usually a good sign for Oscar voters
@@sreyangovender3404 Good point. But I still think that Oscar prognosticators underestimate the affection MANY Academy members have for genre films like musicals.
The Academy is nothing like it was in 2002. They have international voters these days. International people do not care for Wicked. Wait for BAFTAs' nominations. Wicked will being its descend there.
Peeps saying how scared they are for Wicked possibly winning awards is kind of hilarious to me. I went into Wicked thinking I would have a fun time but not love it as much as I am. The sheer amount of work and care put into it should be respected.
I don't see Anora winning BP, honestly. I'm the only person I know so far who found it just to be okay. I truly felt it was a bit thin and emotionally flat. I can appreciate the screenplay for sure and the acting is insane but I think the Brutalist is most likely to end up winning as of now. And I'm not saying Anora won't win just because I didn't like it as much, I genuinely think it doesn't check as many boxes as The Brutalist. Thoughts?
The Brutalist definitely looks like a Revenant to me. Actor, director, cinematography. But add score too. And maybe loses picture to something with better consensus
Sean baker is the writer,director,editor and producer of anora, so he will get 4 oscar nominations for himself Best picture Best director Best editing Best screenplay
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
Kinda ironic how people see Wicked as critique of fascism and racism When the main producer and awards campaigner of the film Marc Platt, denounced Jonathan Glazer’s speech about Gaza and tried to get Boots Riley, a black director, dropped from his agency, for openly supporting Palestine. He himself is a fascist
The movement here in Brazil about this film is crazy, it's like our own blockbuster, we haven't seen this in like 14 years or something with a national movie (unfortunately, many brazilian people marginalize our cinema, which is sad btw)
I think WICKED is this year's DUNE 1/MAD MAX FURY ROAD in terms of getting nominated in a lot of categories and sweeping the technical awards but fail to win above-the-line (I think it could win anywhere from 2 to 4 Oscars, all in technical categories).
@@DARKgirafa I think WICKED wins Production Design and Costume Design at the very least and is a strong contender for Makeup and VFX. That is 4 categories right there.
@@axr7149at best it will win Costume, but 'Gladiator II' and 'Dune 2' has better costumes. Production design is going to 'The Brutalist', Makeup goes to 'The Substance', and VFX to 'Kingdom of The Planet of The Apes'.
@@axr7149its not winning makeup. They LOVE prosthetics and wicked doesn't really have any. Remember when The Whale won? Makeup is either The Substance or Dune 2.
@@jurney3478 don’t forget the category is called Makeup & Hair. It could win just for the latter alone. MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM won this category, as has LES MISERABLES. Also POOR THINGS just recently.
What movie would you compare The Brutalist to? I'm curious because it seems interesting, but that runtime is making me hesitant. Hopefully every scene has something to it.
@@bradmuse Which is the exact reason I’m also curious to see if Anora indeed gets all the love people expect, or if it does “ok” because there might be older voters who wouldn’t understand what the hype is about. (I personally love the film)
@@idokny there's no current stat. The academy doesn't reveal its demographics anymore because of #OscarsSoWhite. But this number (63yo) is from 2014. Eleven years ago, when the academy had around 6000 members. Now it has 11000 members. They started expanding in 2016, adding international voters. I doubt the age average is that high. They gave best picture to EEAAO.
For those of you who liked Sing Sing, the Taviani Brothers produced a prison based Shakespeare theater club in Italy called "Caesar Must Die" 2013. It's more a documentary but just as profound.
The Last time all 5 SAG ensemble nominees were nominated for best picture was 10 years ago so I would be careful going with that predicted lineup. Anora to me seems like the classic film that could miss since no one from that movie is super well known and the movie is marketing itself as the Mikey Madison show
Completely agree with your top 3 Best Picture noms. As far as Wicked, I wish that either that movie, Anora, or the Brutalist would win picture (still haven't seen Anora or The Brutalist as I usually wait until I can rent since I'm not a critic but I can't wait to see those both, too); - I would be happy with any of those even though I agree with your assertions that Wicked winning picture may be a stretch. (As far as Wicked, I was really impressed with Ariana Grande too, on all accounts. As a huge fan of the play, it was a masterpiece for me and I loved the pacing of the movie better than the play as it was easier to follow along .. also I was bawling during that Elphaba/Glinda dance scene when the character was getting bullied- that's the first time in a theatre in a long time that I couldn't control my tears... Lol). I can't wait to see Nickel Boys, too, and will also see A Complete Unknown in theatres... def agree with the Timothee nom for sure.
I think you guys brought up a great point about Wicked at the end that needs to be explored more, that Wicked is a part one. With things like Joker 2 fresh in mind, it would be insanely embarrassing to award part one Best Picture with the possibility that pt2 isn't as good, if not better. It's certainly top five but I can see a path for Anora, Brutalist, Conclave, Sing Sing, or Sep 5 as preferential ballot picks.
After Demi Moore's Hot Ones appearance, I think we are going to see some serious campaigning for The Substance and it could really surprise with nominations this awards season despite how bonkers the film is. It is one of my personal favorites, so I have hope. I honestly don't get the hype for Anora & Conclave for a Best Picture win. Mikey Madison is the strongest aspect of Anora, but the film itself drags in the 2nd act and the ending is going to be polarizing for voters. Conclave just didn't grab me at all, but I believe it is still getting multiple nominations. I don't see a clear frontrunner for the Best Picture win right now, although I personally would love Dune: Part 2 to take it. I also really enjoyed Wicked, but I think that hype will fade. Although I haven't seen Sing Sing yet, if A25 does a successful December push, maybe it will surprise the way CODA did. Also, I'm totally loving the Awards Expert app.
Wicked and Anora are my two favorite films of the year that I’ve yet seen so I’m pretty happy however this Best Picture race turns out. Still need to see Sing Sing, The Brutalist, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown and The Substance, which I really regret not checking out in theaters.
Thank you for such interesting observations. IMO- TIMMY & Edward Norton may WIN, also think Demi Moore might surprise and defeat Mickey Madison. Glad you liked Chalamet film.
My prediction Best Picture - 1. Anora 2. The Brutalist 3. Conclave 4. Dune 2 5. Emilia Perez 6. Sing Sing 7. Nickel Boys 8. Wicked 9. The Substance 10. The Room Next Door Best International Film 1. Emilia Perez (France) 2. The Seed of The Sacred Fig (Germany) 3. I'm Still Here (Brazil) 4. The Girl With The Needle (Denmark) 5. How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
Im just happy to see Look Back being acknowledged at 6 in animated feature. even tho it has not chance in hell to get in, its one of my favorite movie this year and im crossing my fingers that it manages to somehow push one of them out (which one tho? idk lmao).
As much as I would *love* The Substance to get into Picture, Director & Actress, I’m being super conservative about it & only have it in for Makeup and Hair & that’s it. I’m personally waiting for the guilds to see if they go for it before I can predict it anywhere else
My current predictions for nominees for BEST PICTURE (NOT the win, just chances of getting nominated for BP): 1. Conclave (Focus) 2. Wicked (Universal) 3. Dune 2 (Warner Bros) 4. The Brutalist (A24) 5. Anora (Neon) 6. Emilia Perez (Netflix) 7. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) 8. Sing Sing (A24) 9. Nickel Boys (Amazon/MGM) 10. Gladiator 2 (Paramount) 11. Challengers (Amazon/MGM) 12. A Real Pain (Searchlight) 13. The Substance (Mubi) 14. September 5 (Paramount) 15. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) 16. Blitz (Apple) 17. I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) 18. The Piano Lesson (Netflix) 19. Saturday Night (Sony / Columbia) 20. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Neon)
I am hoping Wicked at least gets nominated for best picture and a supporting actress nomination for Ariana Grande. Her performance was phenomenal. Part 2 may get the dominant performanace in 2026.
The Looney Tunes movie opens wide on February 28th 2025, so I can’t imagine that would be seen enough to be nominated. That’s like a week before the Oscar ceremony even happens. I don’t think it’ll drum up enough buzz before nominations happen
My whole thing with Wicked is this: Yes, it's a Part One. Yes, it has funky lighting, at times. Yes, plenty of males in AMPAS won't go for it. Having said all of that, no other film, thus far, has ignited so much interest & passion and, in what's considered a kinda weak-ish year with 'frontrunners' that don't seem to be connecting with general audiences ... I wonder.
When the academy pushes zoe saldana out of the supporting actress category cause she has more screen time than the lead and forces her to compete in best lead actress category
@@cherswigmaker big difference in general there. Kate had two films in contention and no co star competition for either slot. I seriously doubt the academy would want to undermine a potential historic nom for Garcon
How could a race still be this open with 1 month till the years end? Crazy. 2 years ago this time, EEAAO was an obvious winner. 1 year ago, same for Oppenheimer.
@@noteliassmith but we still had presumed frontrunners those years at this point. PotD was far and away ahead of the field. Roma was the front runner for a good while and let's not pretend La La Land wasn't the front runner until Oscar night.
@@nms7872 it's bizarre. Anora would feel so much safer to predict foe BP if it were just slightly less Sean Baker (not a slight. Just an observation on what the academy gravitates towards) or if he'd been able to break in to even just screenplay for The Florida Project. Brutalist feels too cold. Wicked too commercial. Something has to give somewhere.
@@jurney3478 agree. The most acclaimed movie just hasn't been commercially big enough. The most commercial.movie (wicked ) just isn't what wins best picture. Something in the middle? I'm not forgetting dune. I just don't see a part 2 getting best picture
I find it funny everyone fears Wicked winning, but can’t collectively point to one other movie that “deserves” it more. Can’t wait for everyone to get more and more pissed off next year! I think it’s going to over perform in nominations alone and that will shock everyone.
@@Sharpe1502 For me specifically, The Brutalist does everything for me in terms of editing, cinematography, and pacing better than Wicked. Plus I thought Brady Corbets direction and the acting were leagues above with the exception of Cynthia Erivo who was excellent.
@@Sharpe1502 The Substance, for instance, had two knockout performances from a female duo - one leagues stronger than Wicked by far. I adored Moore and Qualley, who had some of the best acting of the entire year, period. The pacing was also much better than Wicked, but some of the other films were even better than that, like Anora and Dune II.
Gladiator 2 gets the biggest push from Paramount (more than September 5) and don’t forget that Killers of the Flower Moon received 10 nominations (please tell me who LOVED that film). I still think that Gladiator 2 has chances to crack the top 10 in Best Picture. It’s fighting with several others but it still has a chance.
@ That doesn’t change the fact that Paramount is behind it and that many people worked on it and are themselves academy members of are friends with members. So deciding it has no chance seems illogical to me. In my eyes there are several film vying for the last three spots.
as someone who didn't like wicked the first time i saw it (in 3d, it looked bad) and loved it the second time I saw it (looked much better), I think that it can withstand backlash. repeat viewings improve it significantly. it actually really really holds up. and the good parts about it (ARIANA GRANDE) get even better.
I loved Anora, but it is time to be real, it has no real depth (with the exception of the very, very last scene that shows how women like Anora are not used to receive real affection by men), so I am not sure that people that love real movies, will prefer it over Wicked.
My main concern about Wicked has always been that it's just the first part. I don't know if it feels satisfactory for the Academy to award them just for the first part. That would mean the second part gets shut out.
Every film but one to win the World Cinema Documentary Jury Award at Sundance the past 8 years has gone on to an Oscar nomination. So don't underestimate 'A New Kind of Wilderness.'
There are many people who care a lot about "social justice issues" (like myself) and also care about nuance, specificity, and objectivity. I haven't seen No Other Land, but from all reviews I've heard, it portrays the reality in the West Bank in a completely one-sided way, as purely the simplistic social justice issue you say it is. Hollywood has many liberal Jews (and their friends and family) who care a lot about Palestinians but also know much more than you do about this conflict, and recognize that this anti-Israel narrative is completely out of touch with reality. It pains and angers them, and they would never award a film with a distorted narrative that demonizes Israel as another villain in the battle they support for social justice.
I loved Wicked, but it's not a complete film since it was broken into two parts. If it wins best picture, then it's part one that wins. Has that ever happened before?
I wouldn’t call Emilia Perez a lock for sag at all, there’s really only 3 performances that they’re pushing which most would agree isn’t really enough also The Favourite had that model
Wicked is bottom 5. Best Day is Supporting Actress win and Sag Assemble. The Brutalist will win GG Drama and Bafta while Anora will win GG Comedy, Critics Choice and PGA. If Sing Sing makes a comeback it will be Sag Assemble and WGA if Conclave is not eligible.
I’m unsure how you are coming to that conclusion. But I guess we’ll see. The Brutalist couldn’t even win the golden lion or get into the TIFF top 3. That’s not people’s favorite movie and they’re not just going to vote for it because it’s impressive (See Boyhood vs. Birdman). The Brutalist is going to be an acting win, Wicked is going to win the techs that The Brutalist is up for (Production Design/Editing). The academy votes for movies that obviously move them emotionally or else Coda, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nomadland, and Parasite wouldn’t have won and movies like Power of the Dog, All Quiet on the Western Front, etc. would’ve won instead.
@@Sharpe1502 The Brutalist is a frontrunner in Actor, Director, Cinematography and Score. Wicked will 3 awards on its best day. A family blockbuster that is no ware near Director or Screenplay nominations that critics only like hasn't won since Oliver which won in a more musical friendly time. The Brutalist being Power of the Dog makes sense but Wicked is no ware in this sicario. This not a 2014 year. This is more like (Spotlight vs Revenant). Anora could go home with just Screenplay and Picture (if Moore is a threat for actress) and Brutalist is a Director, Actor and a tech or 2 that is to long and artsy to win.
@@Sharpe1502 the feel good moving one is Anora. I like Wicked very much, but it has no shot to win Best Picture. It will win Astra and E Peoples Choice. The only underdog is Sing Sing maybe.
I haven’t seen The Brutalist, Anora, or A Real Pain but Wicked is the best picture I’ve seen thus far. Cynthia and Ariana are just terrific. I especially admire the editing.
Thanks! I have a lot of catching up this year. I ran out to catch _The Substance_ and _Anora_ as soon as it was near me, but I hate that I'm intellectually obligated to watch _Wicked._ The money is enough of an award for _Wicked,_ I felt similarly after watching _Barbie,_ but I was at least excited to watch it.
I think Lord of the Rings would be a better comparison since they all end in cliffhangers with the exception of the third one and they were also made at the same time/were released within a year of each other. Additionally, both films created sets that are going to become iconic in film. They’re also the rare fantasy epic movie that is taken seriously by the academy.
I know y'all keep hyping it up, but I STILL dont buy The Substance as a BP/ATL contender, even as my 2nd fave of the year thus far. Right now I have A Complete Unknown getting in because I've seen enough people loved for it, even if it's just because of the performances, and I'm confident it's going to make more money than the other drama contenders.
Wicked has bypassed The Brutalist in your predictions to win Best Picture?? Seriously??!! That’s crazy to me. I can totally see it being the new Barbie & being nominated heaps but 2nd to win… wow. That a choice. For me this year there are 2 films that are the strongest to win in the Picture, Director, Actress, Actor & Supporting Actor categories The Brutalist & Anora. And they are both completely deserving & worthy. They just scream Oscars films to me. Wicked not so much. Also I think people are forgetting this is only Part 1. Wicked will likely get more accolades with Part 2. Just like how I think Denis Villeneuve won’t win Best Director until Dune Messiah. Similar to how Lord of the Rings didn’t start dominating until Return of the Kjng. It’s usually the last film that gets the prizes.
I think Gladiator 2 is done but the audience hate it take is weird considering how well it's doing at the box office and it's audience score on rotten tomatoes being in the 80s
Wicked is now taking over best picture.Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, Ralph Fiennes and Keiran Calukin. Jon M Chu for director. Wicked for😢😊 best sets and costume, hair and makeup.
As a swede who has seen our submission I just want to give a little heads up. If my country actually commits to campaign the film, The Last Journey (Den sista resan), it could really be dangerous. It’s an enormous crowd pleaser and success in theatres in Sweden. It’s a really good documentary which blends feel good with very emotional beats. You should keep an eye on it, if not for the race, maybe simply because it’s a great film!❤
Fun Trivia: If Wicked wins, it will be in the top 3 lowest rated best picture winners on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic of the last 20 years - in the same company with Green Book and Crash 😊
If the choice is between Anora and Wicked, I would genuinely prefer Wicked to win. Sean Baker is not a good filmmaker. The best films that can realistically get in are Nickel Boys, The Brutalist and Dune Part 2.
I saw Nickel Boys at the indie Memphis film festival and I loved it!! RaMell Ross deserves a Director nomination and I also think Aunjanue Ellis should WIN supporting actress
Ibelin isn't "ee-BEL-in," it's "EE-bel-in." Also, I'm worried that it won't get nominated because it uses re-creations (which used to be a big no-no in the category), but I do think if it gets nominated, it could easily win, with only Daughters or No Other Land able to challenge it. 'Ibelin' pulls at the heartstrings too much not to score a lot of votes.
I think The Brutalist, Conclave, and Wicked have the stronger cases. All three thrive in the combo importance + heart, and tackle issues that can grab voters' subconscious attention in the wake of Trump 2.0.
So if No Other Land will count for Oscar’s this year but will likely end 2024 without U.S. distribution, are any of you who’ve seen it counting it as a 2024 film for your end of year rankings or top 10? It’s in my top 10 of the year, thankfully got to see it at a film festival, but I don’t put a movie on my year list if it didn’t get at least a limited release in LA/New York and so I’m conflicted because I’ve never had this happen before where if that doesn’t happen which I don’t think it’s scheduled to do yet, I normally would just put this to 2025, but I didn’t know until they mentioned that documentary from last year that a movie could still get nominated at the Oscars without U.S.distribution
The girl with the needle is a Danish/swedish/Polish coproduction with golden frog from Camerimage. It gets in there is a lot of people that will vote for them.
Am I the only one who wants the Oscars to go back to single clips rather than short montages for the performance categories during the Oscar broadcast? I have no pull on Twitter so I’m posting this here 😅
It’s so frustrating that Black Box Diaries has NO PLANS of coming to JAPAN of all places. Nobody wants to touch it with a 10 foot stick (possibly might get sued or something)😢
The Award Expert app is such a joy, and makes following the awards race so much easier and more fun!
I love when you call your brother "buddy" affectionately. That is so sweet.
I think Ariana Grande’s oscar clip should be from “No one mourns the wicked” the layered acting was superb, it caught me off guard
@@dayvaughnmonroe9540 DUDE, same! I was caught off guard to immediately feeling emotional. Knowing the story, there’s so much subtle pain and sadness in that opening number when she’s singing. The film immediately won me over.
Nah. The clip should be trying to make a ball gown with the training wand and moving closer and closer to the ground. Hilarious.
@ so funny, but if they want a clip that shows more of her acting then NOMTW will do better
Tbh her clip is the dance scene. She gives so much emotion without saying anything. And it’s when her character arc shifts and thus the arc of the story in the 2nd act
I'm old enough to remember what the internet buzz on the movie "Chicago" was like when it opened over 20 years ago. "Chicago" like "Wicked," was a highly anticipated adaptation of a beloved stage musical. Some in Hollywood were skeptical that making Chicago's musical numbers figments of Roxie Hart's imagination would work as a story device. Basically, it was seen as a desperate attempt to attract movie-goers who say they hate musicals because people don't spontaneously break out in song and dance in real life.
But the movie got positive if not swooning reviews and was a commercial hit. In fact, its surprising commercial success brought on a bit of an online backlash. Even folks who liked the film began to snipe that while it was an enjoyable, well-crafted film, it couldn't hold a candle to the great musicals of the past. When it won best picture, many film people chalked it up to nothing more than Academy members showing some affection for musicals, a sorely missed genre that people had apparently forgotten how to make and that audiences no longer liked.
The parallels Wicked has with Chicago are uncanny. Both are film adaptations of popular long-running Broadway shows that weren't made until decades after they first appeared on stage. Both projects were said to be impossible to be made into a film. Both films were met with skeptical musical fans who took issue with casting choices. Both got better reviews than was expected. And both faced backlash when folks began discussing them as awards contenders and the films started to rake in cash.
I think some people underestimate how much industry professionals in general, like the musical genre, especially when they are made with old-school movie craftsmanship as was done in the case of Wicked.
We’ve also been so far removed from a musical Best Picture winner, that it kinda feels like if one is due.
We got incredibly close for a La La Land win. But Wicked could just be the film to do it.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it was able to cross the finish line in this wide open year of a race.
Yes. Absolutely. The parallels to Chicago are hard to miss. And looking back, I think Chicago was a great winner. One of my favorites. Wicked would be the same. Also all the boomers I know are going crazy for wicked. That's usually a good sign for Oscar voters
Wicked is half a movie- no way its winning
@@sreyangovender3404 Good point. But I still think that Oscar prognosticators underestimate the affection MANY Academy members have for genre films like musicals.
The Academy is nothing like it was in 2002. They have international voters these days. International people do not care for Wicked. Wait for BAFTAs' nominations. Wicked will being its descend there.
Peeps saying how scared they are for Wicked possibly winning awards is kind of hilarious to me. I went into Wicked thinking I would have a fun time but not love it as much as I am. The sheer amount of work and care put into it should be respected.
I don't see Anora winning BP, honestly. I'm the only person I know so far who found it just to be okay. I truly felt it was a bit thin and emotionally flat. I can appreciate the screenplay for sure and the acting is insane but I think the Brutalist is most likely to end up winning as of now. And I'm not saying Anora won't win just because I didn't like it as much, I genuinely think it doesn't check as many boxes as The Brutalist. Thoughts?
I saw Anora and conclave and don't think either are worthy of a best picture.
Yeah I absolutely cannot see anora winning best picture. At all.
The Brutalist definitely looks like a Revenant to me. Actor, director, cinematography. But add score too. And maybe loses picture to something with better consensus
Sean baker is the writer,director,editor and producer of anora, so he will get 4 oscar nominations for himself
Best picture
Best director
Best editing
Best screenplay
I think Original Screenplay is his best shot.
Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.
Kinda ironic how people see Wicked as critique of fascism and racism
When the main producer and awards campaigner of the film Marc Platt, denounced Jonathan Glazer’s speech about Gaza and tried to get Boots Riley, a black director, dropped from his agency, for openly supporting Palestine. He himself is a fascist
Isn't he Ben platt's dad?
@@singstreetcar5881 yes
Who cares leave this woke stuff out
@@RB-.- wicked has "woke" narratives, so should we leave wicked out of the race too?
@@dahomey2001 just Erivo
I want Brutalist to win everything 🤞🏽
Is it better than Oppenheimer?
@@amirleo2051i personally liked it way more than Oppenheimer
@@pb.j.1753 Since best picture is chosen via a preferential ballot, it makes most sense that it will win Best Picture.
@@amirleo2051 the second half drags a lot more than the brilliant first half
Watch out for I'm Still Here. The movie is a major crowdpleaser and has a good shot at Actress and Adapted Screenplay nominations.
The movement here in Brazil about this film is crazy, it's like our own blockbuster, we haven't seen this in like 14 years or something with a national movie (unfortunately, many brazilian people marginalize our cinema, which is sad btw)
The substance should break into best picture lineup for the Oscars!
It’s gonna. International voters love it.
Keiner der Filme bleibt für die Filmgeschichte, vielleicht dann doch letztlich Wicked, dank komplizierter Zeiten
@@Sharpe1502do they?
Why? I thought it was a grotesque farce even if it had some good ideas.
I will loved that the Oscar winner for Best Picture been between "Anora" or "Wicked". Either of thise deserve best picture.
You mean Wicked part 1
I think WICKED is this year's DUNE 1/MAD MAX FURY ROAD in terms of getting nominated in a lot of categories and sweeping the technical awards but fail to win above-the-line (I think it could win anywhere from 2 to 4 Oscars, all in technical categories).
Wicked winning technical over Dune 2?
@@DARKgirafa I think WICKED wins Production Design and Costume Design at the very least and is a strong contender for Makeup and VFX. That is 4 categories right there.
@@axr7149at best it will win Costume, but 'Gladiator II' and 'Dune 2' has better costumes. Production design is going to 'The Brutalist', Makeup goes to 'The Substance', and VFX to 'Kingdom of The Planet of The Apes'.
@@axr7149its not winning makeup. They LOVE prosthetics and wicked doesn't really have any. Remember when The Whale won? Makeup is either The Substance or Dune 2.
@@jurney3478 don’t forget the category is called Makeup & Hair. It could win just for the latter alone. MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM won this category, as has LES MISERABLES. Also POOR THINGS just recently.
I feel like personally the brutalist is frontrunner due to its epic scale but 🤷♂️
That didn't help Power of the Dog
@ yeah but power of the dog wasn’t a 4 hour literal epic
What movie would you compare The Brutalist to? I'm curious because it seems interesting, but that runtime is making me hesitant. Hopefully every scene has something to it.
@@cinemacola6398 it’s like a Paul Thomas Anderson kinda film a bit like there will be blood
Oh, I love There will be blood. That's definitely sells it. Lol.
I'm seeing this 2025 awards season is has split winner in the Best Picture & Best Director..
the average age of oscar voters is 63, A Complete Unknown has a way better chance than The Substance or Emilia Perez
@@bradmuse Which is the exact reason I’m also curious to see if Anora indeed gets all the love people expect, or if it does “ok” because there might be older voters who wouldn’t understand what the hype is about. (I personally love the film)
Emilia Perez is not getting Oscar love
Not anymore. That stat is incredibly outdated.
@ What’s the current stat and where do you get that info from?
@@idokny there's no current stat. The academy doesn't reveal its demographics anymore because of #OscarsSoWhite. But this number (63yo) is from 2014. Eleven years ago, when the academy had around 6000 members. Now it has 11000 members. They started expanding in 2016, adding international voters. I doubt the age average is that high. They gave best picture to EEAAO.
For those of you who liked Sing Sing, the Taviani Brothers produced a prison based Shakespeare theater club in Italy called "Caesar Must Die" 2013. It's more a documentary but just as profound.
Rip to The End and The Supremes at earls all you can eat being in your top 10 in march
@@ad-sd-vids5332 the second it became a Hulu exclusive it was disqualified.
Emilia Perez backlash in full swing with 3.1 rating on Letterboxd lol. Even Bohemian Rhapsody did better with 3.4, Green Book 3.8
I couldn’t get through that film.
Why?
The Last time all 5 SAG ensemble nominees were nominated for best picture was 10 years ago so I would be careful going with that predicted lineup. Anora to me seems like the classic film that could miss since no one from that movie is super well known and the movie is marketing itself as the Mikey Madison show
Completely agree with your top 3 Best Picture noms. As far as Wicked, I wish that either that movie, Anora, or the Brutalist would win picture (still haven't seen Anora or The Brutalist as I usually wait until I can rent since I'm not a critic but I can't wait to see those both, too); - I would be happy with any of those even though I agree with your assertions that Wicked winning picture may be a stretch. (As far as Wicked, I was really impressed with Ariana Grande too, on all accounts. As a huge fan of the play, it was a masterpiece for me and I loved the pacing of the movie better than the play as it was easier to follow along .. also I was bawling during that Elphaba/Glinda dance scene when the character was getting bullied- that's the first time in a theatre in a long time that I couldn't control my tears... Lol). I can't wait to see Nickel Boys, too, and will also see A Complete Unknown in theatres... def agree with the Timothee nom for sure.
I think you guys brought up a great point about Wicked at the end that needs to be explored more, that Wicked is a part one. With things like Joker 2 fresh in mind, it would be insanely embarrassing to award part one Best Picture with the possibility that pt2 isn't as good, if not better. It's certainly top five but I can see a path for Anora, Brutalist, Conclave, Sing Sing, or Sep 5 as preferential ballot picks.
Absolutely love the new app!! Happy to support you guys :)
Wicked would need an editing nomination and at least one of director or screenplay. And those nominations are a longshot
I really don't think either are longshots. Especially screenplay. Does everyone forget coda? Screenplay WINNERS can often be a stretch
After Demi Moore's Hot Ones appearance, I think we are going to see some serious campaigning for The Substance and it could really surprise with nominations this awards season despite how bonkers the film is. It is one of my personal favorites, so I have hope. I honestly don't get the hype for Anora & Conclave for a Best Picture win. Mikey Madison is the strongest aspect of Anora, but the film itself drags in the 2nd act and the ending is going to be polarizing for voters. Conclave just didn't grab me at all, but I believe it is still getting multiple nominations. I don't see a clear frontrunner for the Best Picture win right now, although I personally would love Dune: Part 2 to take it. I also really enjoyed Wicked, but I think that hype will fade. Although I haven't seen Sing Sing yet, if A25 does a successful December push, maybe it will surprise the way CODA did. Also, I'm totally loving the Awards Expert app.
Yeah, IF Demi gets in that’s because she has a real shot at winning, she has a strong narrative
Yeah. No campaigning has been conducted for that movie until Hot Ones 🤡
I agree with you completely about Anora. Much preferred The Substance, Sing Sing, Wicked. Have yet to see The Brutalist.
@@pb.j.1753 Demi has been campaigning a lot, but I only bring up Hot Ones because it is shows she's not slowing down.
Wicked and Anora are my two favorite films of the year that I’ve yet seen so I’m pretty happy however this Best Picture race turns out. Still need to see Sing Sing, The Brutalist, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown and The Substance, which I really regret not checking out in theaters.
Really hoping 'Look Back' can sneak a nom, even tho the animation category is super stacked. Probably my favourite of the year
You need to push Sing Sing, it is the best of all these pictures. Wicked was too much.
Thank you for such interesting observations. IMO- TIMMY & Edward Norton may WIN, also think Demi Moore might surprise and defeat Mickey Madison. Glad you liked Chalamet film.
My prediction
Best Picture -
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Dune 2
5. Emilia Perez
6. Sing Sing
7. Nickel Boys
8. Wicked
9. The Substance
10. The Room Next Door
Best International Film
1. Emilia Perez (France)
2. The Seed of The Sacred Fig (Germany)
3. I'm Still Here (Brazil)
4. The Girl With The Needle (Denmark)
5. How To Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)
After seeing it, I can’t imagine RND getting in
Worried for RND, Substance and Nickel Boys
I think A Real Pain is in top 8 atp.
Johnny Cash was played by Boyd Holbrook, not Alessandro Nivola in A Complete Unknown
Was gonna say this too..
Im just happy to see Look Back being acknowledged at 6 in animated feature. even tho it has not chance in hell to get in, its one of my favorite movie this year and im crossing my fingers that it manages to somehow push one of them out (which one tho? idk lmao).
As much as I would *love* The Substance to get into Picture, Director & Actress, I’m being super conservative about it & only have it in for Makeup and Hair & that’s it. I’m personally waiting for the guilds to see if they go for it before I can predict it anywhere else
My current predictions for nominees for BEST PICTURE (NOT the win, just chances of getting nominated for BP):
1. Conclave (Focus)
2. Wicked (Universal)
3. Dune 2 (Warner Bros)
4. The Brutalist (A24)
5. Anora (Neon)
6. Emilia Perez (Netflix)
7. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight)
8. Sing Sing (A24)
9. Nickel Boys (Amazon/MGM)
10. Gladiator 2 (Paramount)
11. Challengers (Amazon/MGM)
12. A Real Pain (Searchlight)
13. The Substance (Mubi)
14. September 5 (Paramount)
15. The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics)
16. Blitz (Apple)
17. I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics)
18. The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
19. Saturday Night (Sony / Columbia)
20. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Neon)
I am hoping Wicked at least gets nominated for best picture and a supporting actress nomination for Ariana Grande. Her performance was phenomenal. Part 2 may get the dominant performanace in 2026.
Wicked at #2 is baffling to me
Barbie got better reviews.
I know..... it should be #1
The Looney Tunes movie opens wide on February 28th 2025, so I can’t imagine that would be seen enough to be nominated. That’s like a week before the Oscar ceremony even happens. I don’t think it’ll drum up enough buzz before nominations happen
I'm worried that people are sleeping on The Brutalist for awards, because it's going to be released in late December an early January
My whole thing with Wicked is this: Yes, it's a Part One. Yes, it has funky lighting, at times. Yes, plenty of males in AMPAS won't go for it. Having said all of that, no other film, thus far, has ignited so much interest & passion and, in what's considered a kinda weak-ish year with 'frontrunners' that don't seem to be connecting with general audiences ... I wonder.
You're living in a bubble. No one outside the US cares about Wicked
@@sreyangovender3404 This is a good point. Though, I do read that it's doing very well in the UK. But good point. That matters, too.
@@sreyangovender3404
But the Academy Awards is pretty much an American award show for American films.
When the academy pushes zoe saldana out of the supporting actress category cause she has more screen time than the lead and forces her to compete in best lead actress category
They should she is very clearly the lead character in the movie.
if they were inclined to do this they would’ve done it every other time this has happened
@@nate-it9xqwell, they did it at least with Kate Winslet back in 08. Not saying the will do it this time but there’s a precedent
@ *A* precedent sure, but why would they undercut Gascon like that?
@@cherswigmaker big difference in general there. Kate had two films in contention and no co star competition for either slot. I seriously doubt the academy would want to undermine a potential historic nom for Garcon
Love the videos, man. Keep it up!!!
How could a race still be this open with 1 month till the years end?
Crazy. 2 years ago this time, EEAAO was an obvious winner. 1 year ago, same for Oppenheimer.
Quite frankly it's because this year is significantly weaker than the previous two years
Sometimes the BP race is as open-ended as an acting category. CODA, Parasite, Green Book, and Moonlight were upsets in their years
@@noteliassmith but we still had presumed frontrunners those years at this point. PotD was far and away ahead of the field. Roma was the front runner for a good while and let's not pretend La La Land wasn't the front runner until Oscar night.
@@nms7872 it's bizarre. Anora would feel so much safer to predict foe BP if it were just slightly less Sean Baker (not a slight. Just an observation on what the academy gravitates towards) or if he'd been able to break in to even just screenplay for The Florida Project. Brutalist feels too cold. Wicked too commercial. Something has to give somewhere.
@@jurney3478 agree. The most acclaimed movie just hasn't been commercially big enough. The most commercial.movie (wicked ) just isn't what wins best picture. Something in the middle?
I'm not forgetting dune. I just don't see a part 2 getting best picture
I find it funny everyone fears Wicked winning, but can’t collectively point to one other movie that “deserves” it more. Can’t wait for everyone to get more and more pissed off next year! I think it’s going to over perform in nominations alone and that will shock everyone.
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Sing Sing
Dune II
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Real Pain
just to name a few that are waaaaaaay more deserving than Wicked 😁
@@ZlatanHu. Explain why those are more deserving. Specifically Dune II.
@@Sharpe1502 For me specifically, The Brutalist does everything for me in terms of editing, cinematography, and pacing better than Wicked. Plus I thought Brady Corbets direction and the acting were leagues above with the exception of Cynthia Erivo who was excellent.
@@Sharpe1502 The Substance, for instance, had two knockout performances from a female duo - one leagues stronger than Wicked by far. I adored Moore and Qualley, who had some of the best acting of the entire year, period. The pacing was also much better than Wicked, but some of the other films were even better than that, like Anora and Dune II.
what happened you guys use to release so many videos a week now it feels like we get one video once a few weeks.
The Substance needs in!!! It won’t win but it deserves the nomination, fabulous film
Kinda crazy how most of the nominations will most likely be for musical films this year
Emilia perez and wicked. Thats 2.
@ im counting a complete unknown in it, like a good portion of acting noms could go to those 3 movies
Man they look alike the most here
Hmm, English much?
@@ktom5262 *Do you speak English much?
Gladiator 2 gets the biggest push from Paramount (more than September 5) and don’t forget that Killers of the Flower Moon received 10 nominations (please tell me who LOVED that film). I still think that Gladiator 2 has chances to crack the top 10 in Best Picture. It’s fighting with several others but it still has a chance.
gladiator 2 has no shot atp since the audience response is nowhere near the first one. not to mention the box office for that is not huge either.
@ That doesn’t change the fact that Paramount is behind it and that many people worked on it and are themselves academy members of are friends with members. So deciding it has no chance seems illogical to me. In my eyes there are several film vying for the last three spots.
as someone who didn't like wicked the first time i saw it (in 3d, it looked bad) and loved it the second time I saw it (looked much better), I think that it can withstand backlash. repeat viewings improve it significantly. it actually really really holds up. and the good parts about it (ARIANA GRANDE) get even better.
Ariana Grande had one of the weakest performances I have seen in my whole life. If anything, she is one of the worst parts of it.
@@DrMichaelJAdams well you might just be an idiot.
Well I'm sorry to say you will be disappointed at the Oscars this year if you feel that way. @@DrMichaelJAdams
@@DrMichaelJAdams did the Emilia Pérez team pay you to post this?
I loved Anora, but it is time to be real, it has no real depth (with the exception of the very, very last scene that shows how women like Anora are not used to receive real affection by men), so I am not sure that people that love real movies, will prefer it over Wicked.
My main concern about Wicked has always been that it's just the first part. I don't know if it feels satisfactory for the Academy to award them just for the first part. That would mean the second part gets shut out.
Every film but one to win the World Cinema Documentary Jury Award at Sundance the past 8 years has gone on to an Oscar nomination. So don't underestimate 'A New Kind of Wilderness.'
I know you’re high on Anora, but when was the last time a newbie won best actress, I just don’t see it
Nice work!
I’m Still Here should get a nomination for Best Picture and Best Actress
The app is awesome! It works great!
Black Box Diaries is an incredible film. Searing and unforgettable.
It’s funny how 21 years later we are having the exact same conversation people had with Chicago, and that movie won best picture
Correction for International: Georgia didn’t submit APRIL. They submitted THE ANTIQUE.
There are many people who care a lot about "social justice issues" (like myself) and also care about nuance, specificity, and objectivity. I haven't seen No Other Land, but from all reviews I've heard, it portrays the reality in the West Bank in a completely one-sided way, as purely the simplistic social justice issue you say it is. Hollywood has many liberal Jews (and their friends and family) who care a lot about Palestinians but also know much more than you do about this conflict, and recognize that this anti-Israel narrative is completely out of touch with reality. It pains and angers them, and they would never award a film with a distorted narrative that demonizes Israel as another villain in the battle they support for social justice.
I loved Wicked, but it's not a complete film since it was broken into two parts. If it wins best picture, then it's part one that wins. Has that ever happened before?
Lamorne Morris deserved supporting buzz.
I wouldn’t call Emilia Perez a lock for sag at all, there’s really only 3 performances that they’re pushing which most would agree isn’t really enough also The Favourite had that model
always curious of what you guys do for your day jobs?
Wicked is bottom 5. Best Day is Supporting Actress win and Sag Assemble. The Brutalist will win GG Drama and Bafta while Anora will win GG Comedy, Critics Choice and PGA. If Sing Sing makes a comeback it will be Sag Assemble and WGA if Conclave is not eligible.
I’m unsure how you are coming to that conclusion. But I guess we’ll see. The Brutalist couldn’t even win the golden lion or get into the TIFF top 3. That’s not people’s favorite movie and they’re not just going to vote for it because it’s impressive (See Boyhood vs. Birdman). The Brutalist is going to be an acting win, Wicked is going to win the techs that The Brutalist is up for (Production Design/Editing). The academy votes for movies that obviously move them emotionally or else Coda, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Nomadland, and Parasite wouldn’t have won and movies like Power of the Dog, All Quiet on the Western Front, etc. would’ve won instead.
@@Sharpe1502 Room Next Door won cause the jury picks favorites and it didn't screen enough at Tiff. Everyone who's seen it loves it.
@@Sharpe1502 The Brutalist is a frontrunner in Actor, Director, Cinematography and Score. Wicked will 3 awards on its best day. A family blockbuster that is no ware near Director or Screenplay nominations that critics only like hasn't won since Oliver which won in a more musical friendly time. The Brutalist being Power of the Dog makes sense but Wicked is no ware in this sicario. This not a 2014 year. This is more like (Spotlight vs Revenant). Anora could go home with just Screenplay and Picture (if Moore is a threat for actress) and Brutalist is a Director, Actor and a tech or 2 that is to long and artsy to win.
@@Sharpe1502 the feel good moving one is Anora. I like Wicked very much, but it has no shot to win Best Picture. It will win Astra and E Peoples Choice. The only underdog is Sing Sing maybe.
I haven’t seen The Brutalist, Anora, or A Real Pain but Wicked is the best picture I’ve seen thus far. Cynthia and Ariana are just terrific. I especially admire the editing.
That is an... interesting statement
Dennis Quaid and Margaret Qualley are amazing in the substance! Wish they are also nominated somewhere.
Can you please email me a scan of that photo from the brutalist on your shelf?
Thanks! I have a lot of catching up this year. I ran out to catch _The Substance_ and _Anora_ as soon as it was near me, but I hate that I'm intellectually obligated to watch _Wicked._ The money is enough of an award for _Wicked,_ I felt similarly after watching _Barbie,_ but I was at least excited to watch it.
Wicked might be the CODA of this awards season...
I think Lord of the Rings would be a better comparison since they all end in cliffhangers with the exception of the third one and they were also made at the same time/were released within a year of each other. Additionally, both films created sets that are going to become iconic in film. They’re also the rare fantasy epic movie that is taken seriously by the academy.
they are most definitely not the same... also CODA was an anomaly.
CODA a small independent movie bought from Sundance? These are not the same
That seems fair
Sing Sing is the closest thing to CODA
I know y'all keep hyping it up, but I STILL dont buy The Substance as a BP/ATL contender, even as my 2nd fave of the year thus far. Right now I have A Complete Unknown getting in because I've seen enough people loved for it, even if it's just because of the performances, and I'm confident it's going to make more money than the other drama contenders.
Wicked is the Cynthia and Ariana show, the supporting actors dont get enough to do so i dont think it will win SAG ensemble
That “Anora” at 45:42 was hilarious
Wicked has bypassed The Brutalist in your predictions to win Best Picture?? Seriously??!! That’s crazy to me.
I can totally see it being the new Barbie & being nominated heaps but 2nd to win… wow. That a choice.
For me this year there are 2 films that are the strongest to win in the Picture, Director, Actress, Actor & Supporting Actor categories
The Brutalist & Anora. And they are both completely deserving & worthy. They just scream Oscars films to me.
Wicked not so much. Also I think people are forgetting this is only Part 1. Wicked will likely get more accolades with Part 2.
Just like how I think Denis Villeneuve won’t win Best Director until Dune Messiah. Similar to how Lord of the Rings didn’t start dominating until Return of the Kjng. It’s usually the last film that gets the prizes.
Mark my words, Emilia Perez is this year’s award villain ! 😁
I think Gladiator 2 is done but the audience hate it take is weird considering how well it's doing at the box office and it's audience score on rotten tomatoes being in the 80s
It's Christmas already
Wicked is now taking over best picture.Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, Ralph Fiennes and Keiran Calukin. Jon M Chu for director. Wicked for😢😊 best sets and costume, hair and makeup.
As a swede who has seen our submission I just want to give a little heads up. If my country actually commits to campaign the film, The Last Journey (Den sista resan), it could really be dangerous. It’s an enormous crowd pleaser and success in theatres in Sweden. It’s a really good documentary which blends feel good with very emotional beats. You should keep an eye on it, if not for the race, maybe simply because it’s a great film!❤
Who is the US distributor of that film? That is an important factor.
@ it’s Universal who has picked up the rights of distribution, so could definitely have some potential
A Lil note: Boyd Holbrook played Johnny Cash in A Complete Unknown and not Alessandro Nivola from The Brutalist!
Wicked has the heart element that Bohemian Rhapsody and Top Gun didn't. I don't get why you've been being a total hater ever since the movie came out.
Justified if the movie is over-praised
@sreyangovender3404 and it's not
Fun Trivia: If Wicked wins, it will be in the top 3 lowest rated best picture winners on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic of the last 20 years - in the same company with Green Book and Crash 😊
If the choice is between Anora and Wicked, I would genuinely prefer Wicked to win. Sean Baker is not a good filmmaker. The best films that can realistically get in are Nickel Boys, The Brutalist and Dune Part 2.
1:06
[START]
I really liked The Outrun. Definitely in my top 10 and Saoirse Ronan probably my best actress.
1. Conclave
2. Anora
3. The Brutalist
4. Dune II
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Wicked
7. A Real Pain
8. Sing Sing
9. The Substance
10. Challengers
I watched conclave the script was so obvious.
@@jamesandyc Obvious? There is ZERO chance you predicted the twist.
I saw Nickel Boys at the indie Memphis film festival and I loved it!! RaMell Ross deserves a Director nomination and I also think Aunjanue Ellis should WIN supporting actress
Ibelin isn't "ee-BEL-in," it's "EE-bel-in." Also, I'm worried that it won't get nominated because it uses re-creations (which used to be a big no-no in the category), but I do think if it gets nominated, it could easily win, with only Daughters or No Other Land able to challenge it. 'Ibelin' pulls at the heartstrings too much not to score a lot of votes.
Edited to add: Oh, I guess Will & Harper could win if it's nominated (I just don't think it will be).
The substance is one of those movies that’ll win best picture and it’ll seem so obvious in hindsight
I sincerely hope so
what in the film twitter is this comment
@ you’re thinking small. Think Big
@leviturner4565 demi should win too
I think The Brutalist, Conclave, and Wicked have the stronger cases. All three thrive in the combo importance + heart, and tackle issues that can grab voters' subconscious attention in the wake of Trump 2.0.
As much as I liked Wicked, I wouldn't want BP to win.
That one side wins will be completely crazy and will be super controversial.
Why?
Wicked being a Prt One is going to ensure it doesn’t get BP. It’ll get a lot of precursors but it’s not winning.
I think Isabella Rossilinni is more likely for a nom than tucci, he has no buzz and she could defiantly sneak in
So if No Other Land will count for Oscar’s this year but will likely end 2024 without U.S. distribution, are any of you who’ve seen it counting it as a 2024 film for your end of year rankings or top 10? It’s in my top 10 of the year, thankfully got to see it at a film festival, but I don’t put a movie on my year list if it didn’t get at least a limited release in LA/New York and so I’m conflicted because I’ve never had this happen before where if that doesn’t happen which I don’t think it’s scheduled to do yet, I normally would just put this to 2025, but I didn’t know until they mentioned that documentary from last year that a movie could still get nominated at the Oscars without U.S.distribution
The girl with the needle is a Danish/swedish/Polish coproduction with golden frog from Camerimage. It gets in there is a lot of people that will vote for them.
I like the film a lot and its cinematography especially but its subject matter is VERY dark and twisted. I don’t see the Academy embracing this story.
Am I the only one who wants the Oscars to go back to single clips rather than short montages for the performance categories during the Oscar broadcast?
I have no pull on Twitter so I’m posting this here 😅
You forgot "I'm Still Here" with Fernanda Torres.
It’s so frustrating that Black Box Diaries has NO PLANS of coming to JAPAN of all places. Nobody wants to touch it with a 10 foot stick (possibly might get sued or something)😢