Apple Announces The Biggest Buyback Program Ever
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- Опубликовано: 30 май 2024
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Joseph Carlson After Hours: / @josephcarlsonafterhours
00:00 Intro
02:44 Apple Buyback Program
18:05 Texas Roadhouse New Highs
33:11 Sam Alman
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About Joseph Carlson:
I am not a professional investor and have never claimed to be. I'm an amateur investor sharing my experience of what I've learned, where I have had success, and where I've had failures. I share my thoughts on investing and performance with transparency. My approach and goal to investing is to buy high-quality long-term investments in world-class businesses that I call "compounders". I view my investments as businesses, not as stocks. Before creating content on RUclips full time I worked as a senior-level programmer for 8 years. Over the years as a programmer, I compounded my knowledge of development. I take the same iterative learning approach to my study of investing. I study investing as a craft in the continual pursuit of being better. I will make mistakes in investment decisions from time to time. Results are not guaranteed. Please do not blindly follow me into any investments, and make sure your portfolio and investments are built around your specific income, risk tolerance, personality, and timeline, and overall circumstances. 
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Hi I'm from albania and want to invest but what app can i use (I tried to install M1 finance but i can't because Im in albania. And need to be a us resident ) Pease help me
Thanks
@@FamilyGuy_Shorts1 Try interactive brokers
@@blackninjai Thank you
My advice to new investors: Buy good companies stocks and hold them as long as they are good companies. Just do this and ignore the forecasts and market views which are at best entertaining but completely useless.
The key to big returns is not big moving stocks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investing to day trading.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Is there any chance you could recommend who you work with? I've wanted to make this switch for a very long time now, but I've been very hesitant about. I'll appreciate any recommendation.
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks a lot for this recommendation. I just looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Warren buffet is bearish. He sold a lot of Apple. i still think there's some short term pain ahead. I am currently holding north of $200k in a savings account waiting to take advantage of a huge opportunity. How do i avoid a crunch and maximize this?
Don't be in a hurry to get in. The market needs several days of strong performance to signal that the downturn might be over; i think It's a time to be largely, if not entirely, in cash
Inflation gives the illusion of growth. Investors should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments during these periods.
The economy and stocks are two different things these days, but i agree, I think it's brilliant to have a portfolio advisor for investing! The market's instability makes DIY risky. You don't need to find the next NVDA to succeed in investing. I've turned 180k into $20k in quarterly dividends using one, a major milestone.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations as everyone's situation varies. Consider independent financial advisors like "JENNIFER LEIGH HICKMAN" I've worked with her for 9 years and highly recommend her. Check if she meets your criteria.
)The Market have been suffering over the past month, with all the three indexes recording losses in recent weeks. My $400,000 portfolio is down by approximately 20%, any recommendations to scale up my returns before retirement will be highly appreciated.
Buying a stock is easy, but buying the right stock without a time-tested strategy is incredibly hard. hence I will suggest you get yourself a financial-Advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist. Apple, Merck, General Dynamics, Cheniere Energy and Marriott International are prime candidates.
You have to get a financial-advisor/broker to aid you diversify your portfolios to include commodities, inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, as opposed to growth stocks where valuations were based on future potential earnings,
Very true , I diversified my $400K portfolio across multiple market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate over $900k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds in few months.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury is a good recommendation. You must have probably heard about her.
Joseph, have you ever thought of a yt series to evaluate a subscriber’s portfolio?
Might be interesting to see and to diversify in your video’s 🙂
Bro, that sounds awesome, I'd watch that!
This is a great idea. I'd love to hear his thoughts on mine. All in good fun
This would be absolutely insane
We have to make this top comment so he actually does it
Keep commenting and liking
I think the problem with the phones not selling isn't just due to the phone in general lasts longer, it's that the new models that have been recently released don't have the real wow factor to really make you want to upgrade.
Agree like what else can a phone have, they keep making the processors faster and improving the camera but like 99% of users don’t care about those upgrades
@marklevy1785 and that's ALL they have been doing for the past 10 years, while Smart phone like Samsung activates better phone with greater specs and apps
@techshark6181greater bloatware more like.
Thats true, i am excited What Apple will do with AI. In my opinion thats the Only possibility to do something new at the Moment
Sold my APPL before it tanked, will buy at next major drop. I’d definitely need to make use of the $150k liquidity elsewhere. So what should I be looking at? Large cap or small cap stocks? Maybe crypto?
Don't be in a hurry to get back in. The market needs several days of strong performance to signal that the downturn might be over; It's a time to be largely, if not entirely, in cash
Investors should exercise caution when it comes to their exposure and be sceptical of new purchases. Only with the guidance of a competent or trustworthy advisor are such high yields attainable.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 this year.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors I can connect with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Texas Roadhouse is a perfect Peter lynch buy 🤟🏼
Google is growing, Apple is not
Googles products are getting crappier and crappier though. And a lot of that growth was fueled by cost cutting, not anything new or innovative. In fact their big push for AI has largely been a flop. Still, only time will tell. We’ll see.
You are comparing Google and Apple buying back shares. However Google has $11B of debt. Apple has much more debt at around $100B. Why are they buying back stock when they are paying interest on this debt? It seems irresponsible to buy shares which aren't exactly under valued. It's most likely a smoke screen for their declining revenue to pump that eps higher.
paying off debt is more important than buy back agreed 110%
The existing Interest rate on debt is cheap
Agree
Yes they should be developing a trust to fund the interest on the debt and minimum so that the revenue can focus on the principal
Reducing dividends paid out is likely better cost cutting than the interest.
Joseph, thanks for sharing all this. I would be curious to know your opinion on Booking - BKNG? Do you follow the stock?
Yeah, fully on board with your take on Apple. As for Sam Altman, I dunno, I find his comments neither surprising nor concerning. He isn't "the business guy" in his business, he is there for the vision. That might be a fickle concept, but I would, honestly, be astonished if a guy like that was talking with shareholders in mind rather than what his singular goal has been for over a decade.
The recent activity in the IPO market is quite notable.
Great listen as always. Do you think its worth buying TXRH at the current market price? Been wanting to get into it but it's very high at the moment.
depends on how much you believe in it and its future... if you believe in it for the long run, like 5yrs or such, that 5% plus/minus from past several months and next several months tends to be irrelevant IMHO
if you're interested in it for short-term, well.. that'd be a different story...
always carefully analyse and take your decision based on that and your goals, context always matters and is usually complex
also, there are several formulas you can apply and see if the stock can be considered cheap or expensive at any given moment in time (that's how analysts establish Target Prices)
This is astonishing with AAPL's buyback; but are there no concerns with YOY EPS growth, or lack thereof and 10% drop in iPhone sales?? I guess Wall Street doesn't think so.
As long as service side grows, AAPL will be fine. It is higher margin there and have a huge pool of ppl to draw from.
And they beat estimate with China drop. So they seem fine for now.
This was posted 52 seconds ago, immediately clicked because i love you videos
In the same quarter of last year, Apple made no mention of their revenue being inflated by 5b due to non-recurring events. This quarter they mentioned that excluding the one time event last year, they would have actually grown. That doesn’t seem like a company that is being transparent on earnings ability to me.
Also when you analyse their reports now it is becoming harder and harder to delve deeply into their numbers such as inventory. I couldn’t find any real information where I could analyse their raw materials, work in progress and finished goods.
These may be indicators of worse news to come or they may be nothing at all. Just some information to consider
I think people would rather see your YTD gains instead of all time gains. Otherwise, how do we know how well you are performing against the index?
His portfolios are public and literally the first thing list in the video description. You check his performance for any period
The index only goes back to January?
@@epbrown01 You need a time horizon to compare against. Year to date is the one most investors probably use every year vs the index.
@@LZentertainmentsHis portfolio has obviously changed over the past 5 years. You can see how the stocks he's currently invested in performed over the past 5 years, but not how the stocks he was invested in back then have performed. And past performance of individual stocks isn't that important unless you're a momentum investor.
So glad JC is covering this.
I saw the stock price today and my mouth dropped!
Been a long time subscriber to your contact Joseph, thanks for another great episode. I'd like to hear your thoughts on VICI's earnings too, they've been trading sideways / trending lower for the past few years, but they are still one of the best dividend payers out there. What are your predictions for them over the next 1-3 years?
Thanks 🙏 Joseph. Excellent content. Like your Qualtrim charts 📊 to demonstrate AAPlL is the GOAT for capital allocation. Taking another look at Texas Roadhouse. Sam Altman reminds me of teenaged daughter. She wants a European sports car, but can’t afford an oil change.
Texas Roadhouse is on the IBD Breakout Stocks Index.
I am a relatively new subscriber. I subscribed a few weeks ago. I like the way you present material, and the fact that I too am investing in stocks. i started back during the financial 2009 crisis. I dont know if I have beaten the s&p 500 but have made enough to quit my last business and take it easier in life, not great but good enough. Having said that I find myself needing more information, accurate information on why investers choose this stock over another. I too own moodys and have owned since the crisis along with USG til it sold and some other less desirable value traps. I like owning stocks which display high Roic’s, low debt, leaders in their
field and love buying back their shares. ( canabils). However Im looking for a program to make it easier to screen stocks, but it has to have the metrics I need and some. Anyway, great video, keep on enjoying the ride.
On what basis do you decide a company needs a KPI?
Texas Roadhouse keeping you big as hell
The biggest concern for me and the reason why I sold my position:
1. I am ok with having a cracked screen for the first time in my life because I don’t want to buy another one. Says a lot because I would have raced out to get the newest one.
2. The risks of CCP seeking revenge on USA via Apple.
3. Congress attempting to destroy the App Store control
Interesting takes/perspectives. Apple in my “core” (long term) portfolio as well.
Texas Roadhouse, great find, I love that place, didn’t know what they were doing behind the scenes, but can see they are great at concepts.
kinda like a 4.3% ish yielding divided stock but most of it done with a buy back instead for tax efficiency.
Any VICI update? They just reported as well and all trends were positive.
Bank failures is always the last clue to actual reports.
I wish I had more Texas Roadhouse. Hope it drops a bit, I don’t know why it would though. Seems like a nice company.
Hey Joseph, I’ve just joined the Patreon but there’s nothing on there but old videos. Like from 2022 when you talk about FXT advert - am I doing something wrong ?
Joseph, what are your thoughts on Cava? Hope it makes the agenda for this weeks video!
Gotta hand it to you, this is one of the best channels on the tube.
I don't think buying back apple stock at a pe of 28 is a good investment. That's basically a yield of 3.5 % plus little growth while even short term treasuries are yielding 5 %. They should rather increase the dividend so investors could allocate the cash themselves.
Wait what? at current valuation? Not a good move imho
@15:16 wait until wants to upgrade your IOS software in order to brick your phone. 👀😊
Joseph, just joined the Patreon today. Love the website, as a fellow dev, well done! It’s so much easier to use than fastgraphs, yfinance, motleyfool etc.
In regards to the sentiment around the consumer vs. Texas Roadhouse, I do think there are some companies that have just hit the limit of their pricing power. Starbucks, Coke, Pepsi, McDonalds are all facing some difficulties because they’re just getting so expensive. I don’t own TR, but great pick!
Great video.
I get good ideas from you. We manage risk and investing very differently from one another but I like your ideas and in depth research. I also respect your long term goals.
I’m a little quicker to cut and run but you do you, I’ll I’ll do what I do.
Thanks for putting in the time to go so deep.
Texas Roadhouse has become a better business over time, but multiple expansion far outstripped the growth in business value.
Stock buyback just means that Apple have run out of ideas, that could use the stockpile of money that they have.
So it's just a cynical way to grow the share price of Apple, rather than innovate and grow into new products/areas.
If you run out of ideas and new products, then the competition will be eating your lunch eventually.
Thx
Im glad i followed you into TXRH, my cost basis is around 85.60 😂
Can you update your m1 chart you posted in the description?
Both google and apple are doing layoffs and cutting costs. While these are responsible corporate behaviors, it doesnt seem like the behavior of companies that have 'too much cash.' It seems more like companies that have run out of areas to invest in and are trying to keep investors interested. I think this cycle of growth to value is pretty natural and in a few decades new companies will replace these tech giants as the new growth. This focus on buybacks and shareholder value are just signs of the beginning of this transition, plenty of stock increase left in the tank.
Yes
Texas Roadhouse is doing well. Bit disappointing to see that it only managed 3.5 stars on Yelp - looks like their biggest challenge will be to keep the high standards re quality and service as they scale. WDYT? How many more restaurants do you think they will open in the next 3-4 years?
Thanks for doing this video! This is exactly the question I was asking myself!
for AAPL
thoughts on vici and moodys ERs ?
Still rock’n the XS Max 💪
Is the fact that R&D and CAPEX spending are growing a good indicator for a company that is NOT growing its revenue?
Whatever the size, is it sustainable for a company to use more than its yearly FCF for buybacks and dividends?
This is financial engineering at its best, good for the short-term stock price but at some point either they find some new growth drivers IN THE BUSINESS or the stock price will tank to
Not gonna lie, the endless flow of Texas Roadhouse coverage is getting a bit boring
Speaking of AutoZone, will you please do an analysis video on that company?
Bought some txrh, wish had loaded up when was around $100 😂 Seems. Bit pricey now, will wait for a pullback. What about Visa? Thanks
great video, watched it entirely.
you didn't mention VICI, which had their earnings report. Seems like a so-so earnings. Nothing crazy. Just thought I'd mention it
Ya, I saw that Caesers didn't have a great quarter, but MGM was ok. I would be worried about all the debt that Caesers holds.
You can only talk like Sam when you don't ever need to worry about money.
Would love to get your take on Berkshire's massive sale of Apple last quarter
I bought TXRH last November thanks to your prior video. Good tip!!!!
I dont own the stock and i'm very bearish on apple...
Apples Interest expenses are up 34%, Stock compensation up 20%, Interest expenses up 34%, they have not innovated in a long time they need a new mass appealing item
Did you repeat the interest expenses part to make the list longer?
@@yswead97 blind loyalty gets you broke, even buffet has been selling apple heavily
This is not good - it shows financial engineering, and total lack of innovation.
With big money like that they should do big projects like self driving cars or other amazing things
Would you buy Tex Roadhouse at this price?
no too high imo
@@ethanlemberger7772 thnx
I hold Apple since 2018. Criticizing the buyback is stupid, however I am at a point where I get disappointed by their revenue growth. It has to pick up at some point, especially if you look at the valuation the stock has. I am waiting for the Apple Developer Conference next month. If there is really nothing announced there which sparks my imagination of them growing some revenue again I might sell a portion of my position.
My iPhone XS has been used for 5 years I'm up for an upgrade. The Userbase is their MOAT, with 1.5 billion iPhone users and over 2 billion active devices, so Apple isn't going anywhere!
No thoughts on VICI earnings?
The only thing that bothers me with TXRH is the FCF margin, that is very low (5,5% currently).
Buying back a fully valued stock is destroying value. That's just a fact. I wouldn't buy Apple at these levels, and Apple shouldn't either.
I agree. It should have been a special dividend
Can you do a new video on vici? And what your plans are for them
Funny how that amount of buybacks is still just 2% of the outstanding shares 😂
You really did your research
I mean if I pull up qualtrim, Apple’s EPS has been flat since 2022. Product sales down for everything except macs this quarter 🤔 it’s just frustrating to see where the company is and where it could be. The products it could have created
I would have bought apple if they paid off their high interest loans. But share buy backs? Unless they're going to start doing a high yield dividend I'm not interested at all.
Joseph, will you make some video on VICI soon?
I think there is no need to make a video now. Its still a great business but as long as interest rates are not going down there will be no upside movement. Imho good time to accunulate.
@@edwinzielinski501 It is still doing good and with current price is really low. should we buy more? as it is good time to buy in now. or is there a risk that we need to worry about?
COST and TXRG was not only organic growth. Most of the gain is multiple expansion. And this makes it more risky.
Companies like Apple that have reached the end of their innovation goals don’t need to be publicly traded. Apple is comfortable with the iPad, iPhone, and Macs and are not willing to expand in other lanes of tech.
Apple's massive buyback is a bold move that could mark a shift in strategy. It will be fascinating to see how this impacts their position in the market! 💡
So how much does apple have to buy back to be valued at $3,000 a share?
Like 95% lol
9:45 This isnt entirely fair - you should have also shown debt levels. Good analysis as always - aside from that.
Buybacks are like dividends 2.0 basically. It’s a form of Return of Capital.
The Qualtrim that you are showing seems to have many more tools than the one I'm paying for. When will the user platform be updated?
QualTrim wont work for me... :( any ideas?
there's only one place where Sam Altman can find the type of coin he needs for AI: THE US GOVERNMENT
Texas "Carlson" Roadhouse
Hi Joseph, can you please update your M1 Pie links, they seem outdated
daily reminder that 110B is less than 5% of the company, ULTA and META are also doing the same buybacks. Maybe pay attention to the percentage of shares outstanding. MULTIPLE COLLAPSE TO 15 PLEASE!
Does qualtrim have an app?
No it's a website
Hey Joseph, as always, great content. Thank you! I really love using Qualtrim too, so thanks for creating that as well. Regarding beating the S&P 500, I’m sure you have. I’m just wondering how much by. Have you run the numbers?
I want a video comparison of your portfolio and QQQ!!
The benchmark he's targeting is the S&P 500, so it doesn't make sense to assess his performance by comparing it to a different benchmark. Fwiw, even Buffett has not outperformed QQQ.
I personally favor the tech sector & VGT/QQQ/XLK. But not everyone can stomach the volatility.
@@jacqdanieles I see your point, just hard for me personally to see the value in doing all this research and dd to get outperformed by an ETF lol. Been buying QQQ, VGT and SMH over past few months myself. As a crypto investor as well, a 10% pullback doesn’t even get me sweating haha
tbh, I was surprised Joseph wasn’t munching up apple shares over the last few months
The risks reward doesn't make a lot of sense at this point... It is expensive at this point... 110 billions is 4% of Cap.
It’s a pretty large holding for his portfolio. I’m in the same boat, as it’s over its target 20% of my pie; the price was dropping, but not enough to warrant adding more.
Apple never actually spend that money on buybacks. They do this everytume.
What happened to sales force !? You haven’t mentioned it sir
What about vici? You haven’t gone over their reports for the last two
He made a video where he talked about it briefly yesterday on the second channel (hold)
Apple is nothing to brag about, I have an iPhone and an android phone and the AI features on iPhone are pretty pathetic. The thing is falling far behind. I know everyone in the us thinks the iPhone is a gift sent from god but but globally it’s different, I use both on the daily and Siri can’t do anything right, their maps are worse, the music app is also not as good and even using its own apps it’s just not as good as android. Ask it to play a song or playlist and 9 times out then it does something random. Google and Samsung are partnered up now and their phones are getting even better, the gap on iPhone vs Samsung is getting very big and you can also get Samsungs for less money. Apple product sales are down and are going to keep going down if they don’t innovate.
I do not think that a lack of AI features is what is slowing apple or their iPhone sales. Honestly I'm not convinced consumers care deeply about AI as much as investors do. sure generating cool pictures and talking to chat bots is fun but most AI features are novelties. For me, I use AI mainly to write code and edit documents, and feel like most people are the same and just use AI for a small number of tasks. Most consumers use their phones for media consumption and do not need new flashy gimmicks or AI to scroll through instagram. I feel like it is cliche to mention but the real value of having an iPhone comes from the ecosystem. I got my first macbook about a year ago and it has made my iPhone a way better device.
Android fanboys have made this argument for the past 10 years - iPhone is missing feature X, Y, Z. New Samsung blah has them and will kill iPhone.
The fundamentals of why Apple is such a success story, without taking anything away from the fact that Samsung and Google have their own competitor that’s also good haven’t changed.
@@user-mw3vt7fq1g He mentioned so many things, but you chose to focus just on AI. The point is that around 80-90% of people in the world believe that getting more for less money is a smarter thing to do, but there would always be a percentage who believe in cult type reasoning and behavior. This is beyond doubt that for a decade Apple has been just a follower, which is late in bringing new tech what's already there in the market by 3-5 years mostly, but at the same time it charges a hefty premium for nothing but its brand. Not many are ready to buy that logic. If that is not enough you are tied to a jailed ecosystem which arbitrarily restricts its users for so many things and at the same time charges hefty amounts for all its services where most times users don't have a choice. If someone's phone which is bought at half the price of iPhone gives him a choice to use some nifty AI features, then at least he has a choice to use them or not. Those AI features are only going to increase, it is just the start. Therefore, it is not a surprise that iPhone sales are going down with every passing year.
@@user-mw3vt7fq1g indeed you dont need 1500 dollar phones to scroll social media. You got the point get an android
Most consumers don’t care about AI features. People in tech are an extremely small minority and won’t move markets themselves. Apple will stay Goated in perpetuity.
TXRH is just straight from the future
With moodys, I wonder how much risk has to be assigned to the fact that when the 2008 recession hit, they didn’t grow for 5 years straight. Is there potential for that to happen again?
Warren Buffet trimmed by 15% in Apple. Time to start trimming myself
How is that guy a chief strategist
can i study latin america companies on qualtrim?
Can you clarify how you are beating the s&p ? your all time gain is 185 so the money you’ve put in over time is 653 less 185 = 468. You have earned 185 on 468 over 5.5 years that’s total of 40% which is less than 9 percent per year which is the average return of the s&p thanks for clarifying
Maybe he wasn't invested with all his capital from the beginning/ added new money as he got it.
He puts money in. So we can't know the money weighted return.
@@mikereisert2803 I assumed so and the calculation of return will be more complicated with ongoing contributions but definitely something worth disclosing to the viewers
Apple is still a high quality business. But at compounder multiples I want compounder growth.