John Rapley & Philip Pilkington: Is a market crash coming?

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  • Опубликовано: 29 янв 2025

Комментарии • 171

  • @arsumbris6392
    @arsumbris6392 2 дня назад +20

    @19:10 "The tariffs on Columbia make absolutely no sense" -- 24 hours later Columbia caved resisting deportation flights and tariffs didn't happen, so they make perfect sense as bargaining tools over other critical matters like 11 million illegal cheap workers and gang members, which was obviously their stated purpose. It's disappointing how many blank takes are out there among otherwise critical thinkers. Also, the H1B's Elon was promoting were for his Tesla assembly plant, after he laid off thousands of American workers, not for "white collar jobs coding"; that's a central issue in the H1B controversy is the "classification creep" into all positions; it's not a visa exclusively for "educated" individuals. Related issues boiling over include fraudulent lottery rigging by "talent firms" like Cognizant, and fake degree mills in India. It wouldn't take you 10 minutes to google that before being a guest on the show.

  • @twelvecatsinatrenchcoat
    @twelvecatsinatrenchcoat 2 дня назад +33

    Couple of rich coastal elites who were both probably entirely blind to everything leading up to this, pretending now like they can see the future, like they've always done, and always been wrong about.

    • @ryanalexander5438
      @ryanalexander5438 2 дня назад +1

      The coasts of where? Not the us.

    • @Kefuddle
      @Kefuddle 2 дня назад

      Ah, a fellow Nassim Taleb reader too? If only The Black Swan was required reading in High School.

  • @corvuslight
    @corvuslight 2 дня назад +37

    On the one hand, you can ask it what a woman is...on the other hand, you cannot ask it about Tiannamen Square.

    • @manuag3886
      @manuag3886 2 дня назад +6

      Oh come on. For real world tasks these fringe controversial issues really dont matter. You do not need AI for those questions.

    • @corvuslight
      @corvuslight 2 дня назад +11

      The fringe issues are indeed immaterial, but the limiting of A.I. by putting ideological/political chains that hamstrings logic based systems and therefore diminishes efficiency, accuracy and functionality are ultimately cost prohibitive and detrimental to success.
      It costs a lot of money to censor A.I. without breaking it.

    • @jolima
      @jolima 2 дня назад +6

      It’s open source - you can make a version that answers whatever you want

    • @braptdl1483
      @braptdl1483 11 часов назад

      Get the deluxe model and you can make it say whatever you want

  • @spectator-o8h
    @spectator-o8h 2 дня назад +26

    Even if it isn’t as good as claimed the AI bubble will burst eventually. Of course, AI isn’t going anywhere but people hoping to make infinite money on it were delusional.

    • @pjtren1588
      @pjtren1588 2 дня назад

      Why would you say Ai is going nowhere? Anyone who uses a computer to complete their work is under threat.

    • @ManicMindTrick
      @ManicMindTrick 2 дня назад

      The AI bubble might burst with human extinction. We are racing towards building machines more capable than ourselves and we are most likely going to lose control at that point.
      Hopefully LLMs won't scale all the way and it will give us some more time. So far it looks like scaling is on track.

    • @baustin11111
      @baustin11111 2 дня назад +1

      ​@pjtren1588 I think AI will make people more productive, so you will have to do more work with the assistance of AI, but it won't full on replace many jobs. My reason for thinking this is shown in two examples
      1. Ask AI something you know nothing about, but someone you know and trust does, and then ask the person how the AI did. Part of the challenge of getting good information out is the ability to ask the right questions.
      2. Planes have been primarily flying themselves for decades, and we still have pilots. They get paid less, but they are still necessary

  • @John-u2t2b
    @John-u2t2b 2 дня назад +14

    Seems a bit premature to freak out.

    • @immortaltyger1569
      @immortaltyger1569 2 дня назад

      Very premature, without independent verification of the alleged power of this new A.I.

  • @mikemilton4370
    @mikemilton4370 2 дня назад +22

    Genius move by the Chinese 😎

    • @valerietweedie4376
      @valerietweedie4376 2 дня назад +3

      I know! I thought the very same thing - I am assuming you are refering to the open source part.

    • @gmw3083
      @gmw3083 2 дня назад

      Definitely. Asymmetric warfare

    • @damienmills293
      @damienmills293 2 дня назад

      The timing is amazing. However, Trump now has the option of riding out a recession that he cannot have caused and both Biden and China to blame. China may have been a bit too hasty.

    • @Kefuddle
      @Kefuddle 2 дня назад

      Give it another 10 mins and wait for the reality to hit.

    • @amraceway
      @amraceway 2 дня назад

      @@Kefuddle And which reality are we referring to?

  • @SimonAZ
    @SimonAZ 2 дня назад +8

    I asked DeepSeek and CHATGTP to tell a joke today. And both were about skeletons. Coincidence?

    • @RuneDrageon
      @RuneDrageon 2 дня назад

      No, don't look inside yourself, but they have infiltrated you already. Pass it on!

    • @ManicMindTrick
      @ManicMindTrick 2 дня назад

      Got a skeleton joke as well.

  • @Crimeajewel-me3me
    @Crimeajewel-me3me 2 дня назад +9

    China has competitive , motivated people who work hard. Something the west can learn from.😊

    • @unrealeck
      @unrealeck День назад +1

      They work hard....or else!

  • @joeyvitamins
    @joeyvitamins День назад +4

    I'm not terribly bright, but I trust Sloppy Steve Bannnon more than these two bloviators!

  • @AbAb-th5qe
    @AbAb-th5qe 2 дня назад +4

    Another piece of this puzzle worth mentioning is Elon Musk was one of the founders of OpenAI

  • @Mike-jm5wt
    @Mike-jm5wt 2 дня назад +5

    Energy dominance is still useful for lowering the cost of everything downstream of whatever needs energy. I don't think the entire Trump industrial policy is suddenly dead on arrival.

    • @cnrspiller3549
      @cnrspiller3549 2 дня назад +1

      I thought that. He kinda glossed over the fact that cheap energy is always preferable to green energy, whatever the industry.

    • @JaredCzaia
      @JaredCzaia День назад

      The "drill baby drill" premise of significantly lowering energy costs fallls apart after 2 minutes of reasearch. All the new drilling Trump suggests would increase the global supply by about .5% which would have little impact on the price of oil. Demanding Jpow bring down interest rates is dumb and super inflationary. There's nothing smart about what he proposes, even the short term wins he is able to achieve by bluffing about tariffs or military aggression. We will pay the price when someone calls his bluff.

  • @FritztheCat74-k8e
    @FritztheCat74-k8e 2 дня назад +7

    Very good. I'm a Trump fan, follow Bannon, intrigued by Musk, and am fascinated by where the chips may fall.

    • @amraceway
      @amraceway 2 дня назад +1

      Trump is a fool.

    • @FritztheCat74-k8e
      @FritztheCat74-k8e День назад +1

      @@amraceway Why do you say that? Because you heard someone else say it?

    • @benlatimer9495
      @benlatimer9495 День назад

      @@FritztheCat74-k8e no, because he is, just an idiot

    • @amraceway
      @amraceway День назад

      @@FritztheCat74-k8e I actually saw Fritz The Cat when it came out in 1973. Mr Crumb did not like the film but I did. Now onto your point as to why I think Trump is a fool. Like any silver spooner it all comes too easily to them so they one don't value things and secondly have a superior air to everyone else.He has no idea of diplomacy, foreign policy or economics. He is a flim flam man who is lucky that he lives in a land where people like shiny objects.

    • @yurigansmith
      @yurigansmith 21 час назад

      If the tech bros can't deliver, it will strengthen the MAGAs and allow Bannon to make a phenomenal comeback, after he's been contemplating his struggle during prison stay. I've got that in my urine, as we say in Germany.

  • @RaymondSwanson-u9y
    @RaymondSwanson-u9y 2 дня назад +3

    This entire country, government and citizens, has been running on debt since Andrew Jackson.

  • @FritztheCat74-k8e
    @FritztheCat74-k8e 2 дня назад +5

    So true. Trump can't be blamed for any crash, but he is responsible for handling it.

  • @joeyvitamins
    @joeyvitamins День назад +1

    Freddy's the man!!

  • @lighthousesaunders7242
    @lighthousesaunders7242 2 дня назад +2

    More proof that economists are social "scientists". Clueless and under informed. Disappointing.

  • @tim_a_findley
    @tim_a_findley 2 дня назад +2

    Good interviews by Freddie today. Maybe we get a short lived bubble burst and less market influence from the magnificent seven companies. Maybe just a bubble bust.

  • @johnodonoghue651
    @johnodonoghue651 2 дня назад +9

    Two Trump haters. Don't take investment advice from journalist or anyone on the internet for that matter.

    • @erickanter
      @erickanter 2 дня назад +2

      Why does Truth cause you Trump lovers to melt down.

  • @Skeptical59
    @Skeptical59 2 дня назад +1

    Even the energy stock in Canada are getting hammered because they were up on the "projected" energy needs for AI.

  • @mr.needmoremhz4148
    @mr.needmoremhz4148 2 дня назад +2

    They just circumvented tariffs, so they still used h100 and other chips. This discussion is open vs closed source models. The model has been around for 4 weeks, just not publicly provided in an app. This is the signal to do on edge/local compute that's more private, not centralized. The case for owning GPU's is still strong, it also is just about LLM with self reasoning. Generating video and combining is not really addressed. This is economic propaganda ...

  • @SCB-dd4io
    @SCB-dd4io День назад

    Thank you. Can’t find a good post in the US

  • @marianam8643
    @marianam8643 2 дня назад +5

    This was such an interesting and enlightening episode!!! Really well done!!!!

  • @cianog
    @cianog 2 дня назад +12

    Anyone that believes it only cost $6m is a fool

    • @manuag3886
      @manuag3886 2 дня назад +6

      Cope and Seeth

    • @VelkePivo
      @VelkePivo 2 дня назад +1

      Not everyone is as smart as you

    • @cianog
      @cianog 2 дня назад

      @@manuag3886 You understand how gullible you are?

    • @pjtren1588
      @pjtren1588 2 дня назад

      Where did they get the hardware? Some auditing at Nvidia is needed.

    • @stephaneclemens2043
      @stephaneclemens2043 2 дня назад +2

      No matter how much it costs, you re doomed

  • @Tufas
    @Tufas 2 дня назад +5

    Guys... one day -1.7% S&P 500 are we sure this is worth a 30 minute market crash video

    • @JaredCzaia
      @JaredCzaia День назад

      It's more about the shaky premise of the ai rally that's been boosting our stock market. It makes ai companies much less valuable and calls into question US technological dominance.

  • @jamesisaacs6279
    @jamesisaacs6279 День назад +1

    Oh yeah and then to claim that the tariffs threat against Columbia were simply a nonsensical economic play is disingenuous.
    It was obviously a negotiating tactic that was used to attain another end, that of helping his immigration policy.
    Now he may have to make good on these threats at some point and harm his economic policy, but to say it was poor economics at face value is to miss the point of what he actually achieved

  • @andyx8440
    @andyx8440 2 дня назад +1

    Great work, thank you

  • @puccaso
    @puccaso 2 дня назад +4

    Also, is Philip related to Karl?

    • @just_another32
      @just_another32 2 дня назад +1

      who is karl?

    • @puccaso
      @puccaso 2 дня назад

      @ Karl Pilkington is a gift to humanity

  • @jesuisladym
    @jesuisladym День назад +1

    Disagree, it is Trump's perogative to have wins where he wants to win. There are only compromises and he should choose what are the BEST wins for MAGA. It looks to me he knows what he wants.

  • @daxrico266
    @daxrico266 2 дня назад +18

    I would be very sceptical about info coming out of China

    • @BlackMan614
      @BlackMan614 2 дня назад

      If a bipartisan congress can only agree on one thing - banning tictok, they most certainly will ban this as well.

    • @viewer3091
      @viewer3091 2 дня назад

      Chinese Whispers are unreliable ! ! !

    • @keyser021
      @keyser021 2 дня назад +4

      Good thing its open source, otherwise you'd be relying on OpenAI to continually upsell you on AGI from LLMs, lmfao!

    • @BlackMan614
      @BlackMan614 2 дня назад +3

      @@keyser021 CCP 'open source'. ROFMAO

    • @on2thenextthing
      @on2thenextthing 2 дня назад

      That's pure irony​@@BlackMan614

  • @PerNystedt
    @PerNystedt 2 часа назад

    If every superpower could cheaply acquire raw intelligence, what would truly determine how much they would buy?

  • @thesleuthinvestor2251
    @thesleuthinvestor2251 День назад

    Terrific discussion. Much to disagree --- AND agree-- with both side, AND with the interviewer. Worthwhile time spent.
    My only note of substance: Methinks John is wrong about tariffs. If you want to sell your product at Safeway, you have to pay rent for the shelf, unless your product is so unique and desirable (like Coca Cola), that not having it would cost Safeway profit and goodwill. But ALL other product pay rent for the shelf space. Well, the US is the international Safeway, with a quarter of the world's GDP. So if you want to sell to US clients / citizens, US management (Trump et Cie) can tell you to pay rent for their shelf space. Not only nothing is wrong with it, but a lot is absolutely right about it. You better tax the suppliers who sell to YOUR customers, because they are YOUR customers. And if they are-- and they ARE-- then charge sellers for getting access to them. It's also called "royalty," which Bill Gates does every day, or "percent off the top," which Spielberg chargers, because HIS marquee power means the audience are HIS customers. Yes, there's also a tinge of Mafia in it-- they also take a percentage off the top of the local laundromat or restaurant, but so what. The US gov't is that too. All I am saying is, that dismissing tariffs as economically wrong, is itself wrong in essence. Safeway charges tariffs for ITS shelf space every day. So does every good businessperson. Why not the US?

  • @MoralistaDefinitivo
    @MoralistaDefinitivo 2 дня назад +1

    Bitcoin beneath 100 usd? Lmao

  • @yurigansmith
    @yurigansmith 21 час назад

    29:20 How would the US be able to coerce China into a type of Plaza Accord agreement? Is this a realistic scenario in the first place? I mean the Plaza Accord was devastating for Japan, even decades after they're still struggling with 2nd & 3rd order effects of it. Why would China want that? And more importantly, does the US have enough leverage to enforce this onto China?

  • @yvonneschlame8657
    @yvonneschlame8657 День назад

    I was just thinking this : “what 8f they want there to be a crash and nobody paid attention"? If we simply didn't really care about what's going on, not buy into any panic, and just continue to live our lives (losses or not), would that be the antidote to what "crash" is supposed to do? Leaving us in shambles? What if we just say "oh, I think I've just been stung by a bee. How odd."....

  • @pistonburner6448
    @pistonburner6448 День назад

    You need to seriously re-evaluate the people who pushed you to bring in the vest guy...he's 100% a political agent working for a certain political party/group.

  • @johnnyboyvan
    @johnnyboyvan 2 дня назад +1

    Glad I sold some of my stocks last week. Amen 🙏.

  • @Analog_nomad01
    @Analog_nomad01 2 дня назад +5

    This probably is Blackrock, State Street et al. flexing their collective muscle. You only loose if you sell your stock. If it goes way down (15%) buy more!

    • @JaredCzaia
      @JaredCzaia День назад

      Blackrock and State Street are not active managers, they simply buy shares as American 401k contributions get deposited and sell shares as plan allocations dictate.

  • @spcltrvr84
    @spcltrvr84 21 час назад

    Really really good

  • @mikeullyett
    @mikeullyett День назад

    Feels more like a Reddit crash by retail investors? Interesting Chinese tech companies haven't rocketed. They should be first in line to benefit.

  • @Ben-Trad
    @Ben-Trad 2 дня назад +3

    Brazil is the leader on coffee production, then Vietnam, then Columbia (for the cool cats).

  • @rad25-bj3qw
    @rad25-bj3qw 2 дня назад +2

    Thanks. Very interesting. Insightful. Good guests. This is what MSM should be like.

    • @on2thenextthing
      @on2thenextthing 2 дня назад

      MSM is dead. They employ people who push propaganda over facts.

  • @mikael5938
    @mikael5938 День назад

    pe 80 lol. it shoukd go down to 20-25. America need to stop print money and pump into stock market and housing.

  • @davidhoracek6758
    @davidhoracek6758 2 дня назад

    Dudes, I know the market is dumping nVidia, but I think that's a bad move. Now everyone who has GPUs can just run this open source code, duplicate DeepSeek in a day, and then just keep shooting past that. Elon is not stupid, and right now he owns more GPUs than anyone except maybe nVidia themselves. You just know that he called his AI team and told them "drop what your doing and use our GPUs to do our own DeepSeek, except we won't put six million worth of compute into it, we'll do six billion, just as a starter. Everyone else, with their smaller GPU data centers, will not be able to compete, and they'll go beg nVidia to please please find a few more GPUs in their couch so that Elon doesn't run away with this.

  • @StopballSport
    @StopballSport День назад

    Freddie lip sync????

  • @debse.7286
    @debse.7286 2 дня назад

    Everything is a bit expensive in the West. What is safe to invest in?

    • @JaredCzaia
      @JaredCzaia День назад +1

      I like SFL for a fair valuation, high dividend, and conservative strategy. It's a diversified shipping company.

  • @peteconroy1348
    @peteconroy1348 День назад

    At 20 mins in when you realise this guy is simply anti Trump it’s hard to take what he said previously seriously. It’s a shame because he might be right but if he can wilfully misunderstand an obvious issue like the tariff question due to his bias, how can we expect him not to have made the same bad faith assumptions when trying to understand a much more complex issue?

  • @FredvonHayek
    @FredvonHayek День назад

    This may be the worst economic analysis I have ever witnessed.

  • @warwick.schaffer
    @warwick.schaffer 2 дня назад +1

    tariffs will not cause inflation if they cut the same amount out of public spending at the same time.

    • @JaredCzaia
      @JaredCzaia День назад

      The inflation caused by tariffs can't be directly offset by public spending cuts as tariffs affect specific goods.

  • @PeterFamiko-lw8ue
    @PeterFamiko-lw8ue 2 дня назад

    Big shaking when musk will sell twiter

  • @davidkey4272
    @davidkey4272 2 дня назад +3

    This is one of the most biased commentaries I’ve ever heard on this channel. You don’t have to love Trump to see that the team assembled is one of the strongest in almost 100 years and that no, the U.S. economy is not singularly centered around AI.

    • @valerietweedie4376
      @valerietweedie4376 2 дня назад

      Really? I think Pilkington's explanation was clear and cogent.

    • @amraceway
      @amraceway 2 дня назад

      @@valerietweedie4376 Trumpers don't base their views on facts, just wishful thinking and daddy worship.

    • @Skeptical59
      @Skeptical59 2 дня назад

      I tend to agree that John Rapley seems to be a typical Trump hater but that Philip seemed unbiased. The Columbian tariff story showed his cards and was correctly pushed back against. Trump is using the threat of tariffs to get what he wants from countries he knows are globalist run like Canada.

    • @JaredCzaia
      @JaredCzaia День назад

      The stock market gains of the past year or so are mostly due to ai optimism. See NVDA market cap and observe how much ai investment the Mag7 companies have been doing. Calling a team "strong" is not an argument.

  • @jeevankikahaniya6339
    @jeevankikahaniya6339 23 часа назад

    Absolutely

  • @chelps6411
    @chelps6411 2 дня назад

    LK-99 moment?

  • @blankfaceblink
    @blankfaceblink 2 дня назад

    Bwahahahaaa! 😆 I guess it's interesting to look at the financial side, but I feel like I need an update on the value of open source and it's cultural implications...

  • @MartynRogers-n7q
    @MartynRogers-n7q День назад

    I don't have a skin in the game. But it seems to me this sudden fixation on Trump's AI strategy is wishful thinking or a loser's cope. As a matter of principle I oppose the weaponisation of trade and banking including the illegal sanctions on Russia. However, Trump was playing a game of chicken with the Colombian government and he inevitably won. They blinked first. So, there is little point in counter-facts about coffee prices. Colombian coffee is a premium product and the coffee consumed by working people is sourced from Vietnam and Kenya.

  • @jimw6659
    @jimw6659 2 дня назад +1

    Wonderful insights. Thank you!

  • @twelvecatsinatrenchcoat
    @twelvecatsinatrenchcoat 2 дня назад +2

    "Necessity is the mother of invention." Right kiddo, and the CCP is the mother of all lies.
    "Oh well the US restricted Nvidia Chips to China so China miraculously invented a 96% better AI model in a month and a half."
    Inb4 it turns out to be a glorified chatbot.

  • @paulbadics3500
    @paulbadics3500 2 дня назад

    Ya..lets use a Chinese communist part AI

    • @amraceway
      @amraceway 2 дня назад

      Why not, it's free and works well.

  • @kynismos
    @kynismos 22 часа назад

    Experts

  • @sandipmistry5218
    @sandipmistry5218 2 дня назад +3

    Normally I find this quite insightful but your guest and analysis was so biased and off the mark! The really insightful bit was the last question . There analysis of. Deepseek and AI was of people who don’t know what they are talking about. There is no way that deepseek only spent $6m , they spent a lot more with CCP help. They have 50k illegal GPUs. A.I. Is not a bubble it’s a revolution, and demand for chips will be high. LLM are commodities. A.I. Agents will be next and you need data #Alwaysbetondead energy. They don’t understand trump, he wants cheap energy, oil/gas/nuclear. The green subsidies are gone but he will let market decide, plus fusion is coming. This is tech war. Tariffs are a negotiation tool in the sense they can be an immediate targeted threat , plus allow time for domestic production to ramp. Trump knows it inflationary hence energy dominance . Need to get better analysis on the show that understand not just trump skeptics.

    • @syohank
      @syohank 2 дня назад +1

      So much cope haha

    • @David-f8e2v
      @David-f8e2v 2 дня назад +1

      Ai is another word for software

    • @David-f8e2v
      @David-f8e2v 2 дня назад

      Trump is a life long criminal who ruined is farther empire. He gets by on corruption

    • @Kefuddle
      @Kefuddle 2 дня назад

      A look at the code and a basic understand of training vs predictions suggests you are correct.

    • @JagdgeschwaderX
      @JagdgeschwaderX День назад

      Oh dear

  • @maxthemagition
    @maxthemagition День назад

    The plain truth, if you work it out, is that in the USA the Government and Private DEBT is huge.
    And if you work out the number of people actually earning money and the average wage in the USA, you get a ratio of about ten to one of DEBT/ Earnings per earning individual averaged overall.
    It is like having a mortgage of ten times you salary!
    But here is the horrible truth....That DEBT is rising by the month.
    If Trump and Company keeps going on a spending spree and cuts taxes, that ratio will increase and no doubt bankruptcies will escalate.
    It is just a matter of time....Probably within a year!!

  • @breakfast00club..11
    @breakfast00club..11 21 час назад

    Everyone ❤Trump

  • @penintended9214
    @penintended9214 2 дня назад +1

    Love how both speakers felt that the tariff policies were stupid unlike the host who seemed to mildly defend them. Cost of tariffs to economy massively outweigh the benefits of negotiating refugee returns, in whichever way you look at it.

    • @VelkePivo
      @VelkePivo 2 дня назад +1

      See, Colombia….

  • @arpadkovacs2116
    @arpadkovacs2116 2 дня назад

    Oh, all the hopes and dreams. DeepSeek will take down Trump and those technology billionaires. Wouldn't that be lovely.

  • @mon11nom
    @mon11nom 23 минуты назад

    Deepseek ain't all that ruclips.net/video/3QuWqjJ1ZjM/видео.htmlsi=d7dXxJP3Qk7w-Q5f

  • @Gianniutah
    @Gianniutah 2 дня назад

    Can they build a cockroach???