Great analysis! I think the moral of the story is to NOT bet on college football games because you don't know more than sportsbooks do! However, if you have a sound and proven model like Avenger, then it can help beat the sportsbooks (59% ATS is pretty good by the way). The common Joe who just watches games from his couch and bets on solely his instincts will lose money over time. Do not expect to make a lot of money gambling on sports without a model to follow because no matter how smart you think you are, you will lose a lot over time and at best be barely breaking even. The exception, in my opinion, are futures bets. The books are the least sharp with those lines in the pre-season because games have not been played yet and they have no data to follow other than returning production from previous seasons. I think the futures market is where you can actually beat the sportsbooks over time - IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING. Xan (Alex) is an Oklahoma State graduate by the way!! He's from Oklahoma. I met him at USF where we went to grad school and we became friends because we both grew up as die-hard OSU fans.
Also, if I were to use Avenger to bet, I would follow the confidence model. There are a lot of games that avenger thinks the spread is spot-on. I would not bet there. Moral of the story. I should make the bet if avenger thinks the underdog will cover and cover by a lot. I called the help line and they didnt tell me how to start betting. Not very helpful.
Great analysis! I think the moral of the story is to NOT bet on college football games because you don't know more than sportsbooks do! However, if you have a sound and proven model like Avenger, then it can help beat the sportsbooks (59% ATS is pretty good by the way). The common Joe who just watches games from his couch and bets on solely his instincts will lose money over time. Do not expect to make a lot of money gambling on sports without a model to follow because no matter how smart you think you are, you will lose a lot over time and at best be barely breaking even.
The exception, in my opinion, are futures bets. The books are the least sharp with those lines in the pre-season because games have not been played yet and they have no data to follow other than returning production from previous seasons. I think the futures market is where you can actually beat the sportsbooks over time - IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING.
Xan (Alex) is an Oklahoma State graduate by the way!! He's from Oklahoma. I met him at USF where we went to grad school and we became friends because we both grew up as die-hard OSU fans.
Thanks. Apologize to Xan for me, even though he probably doesn’t see my videos. Btw, I took a few grad classes at USF too.
Also, if I were to use Avenger to bet, I would follow the confidence model. There are a lot of games that avenger thinks the spread is spot-on. I would not bet there. Moral of the story. I should make the bet if avenger thinks the underdog will cover and cover by a lot.
I called the help line and they didnt tell me how to start betting. Not very helpful.
👍🏻 and 😆