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Options Secrets: It is possible to win 80% of your options trades
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- Опубликовано: 13 авг 2024
- SMB Options Class Workshop: tinyurl.com/bdh7n73a
#optionsstrategy #optionsincome #ironcondor
SMB Disclosures www.smbtraining.com/blog/smb-...
SMB Options Class Workshop: tinyurl.com/bdh7n73a
Note that in order to achieve a high win rate, your Risk / Reward is relatively low. 1 losing trade may potentially wipe out months gains
Where would you put stops here?
@@FC2ESWS stops can be tougher with options than equities, they're better off done as mental stops so you don't get taken out during low liquidity (which for anything but maybe SPY and QQQ options is going to invariably be true in the 1st and final half hour). But as an easy rule of thumb, for options strategies with a high win rate, you make your stop loss equal to your stop gain. If you can have a 20% win 80% of the time, and stop out for a 20% loss 20% of the time, then you net a 20% win 60% of the time. However, you have to look at the volatility of your particular strategy to see if the trade has stable enough short-term pricing to make sure you aren't just being constantly whipsawed out of the trade. Also the opening gap can blow away your ability to stay within an intended stop. Tasty has done some historical backtesting of iron condors, for example, where their results suggested just eating the max loss because it was so infrequent. Not financial advice, just providing context.
How come? All trades have max loss fixed, which is below the 10k. Please enlighten us with your calculations. 🙏
@@chaitanya9186 The arithmetic behind the downside risk is pretty easy. If you're selling 10 ICs with $1000 wings, thus a $10,000 max risk, what premium are you getting for that risk? For something like the 11 delta mentioned in the video, let's say your premium is 10% of the wing spread, so $100 per contract; $1000 premium total. If you had one max loss of $10k, you'd need 11 complete winning plays - both short legs expiring worthless, to not be losing (not 10, because you're paying for 40 option commissions to enter a position with 10 iron condors, and for the times you buy to close you have another 40 commissions to pay to get out). And the reality is that holding ICs to expiry is insane if you were selling a decent length of time premium such as 45 days; a month and a half will pretty routinely seeing one side of a condor breached if you're in a trending market. You're more likely to sell out half way, so retaining maybe $500 of that original $1000 premium. Now you need to have 21 winning plays to offset 1 max loss. Loss control in ICs (any options play really) is very important because of this.
You said yourself, risk is low, as well as reward. So the most you lose is a fraction of what you've made. unless your putting 100% in every time. Never put all your eggs in 1 basket.....lol
Good starting points, but the art to learn, is in the adjustment when short strikes are challenged. And I believe it IS an art more than science because rolling or adjusting your trade will be purely subjective to you and your own appetite for risk/emotional pain, and the market conditions at the time.
The key to consistency in option trading is trading with probability on your side and cutting losses with proper risk management..very good video
I just scalp 0dtes throughout the day with a tight sl and a low take profits
Thanks Seth - this is the best, easy to understand explanation of the iron condor I have seen so far!
Great video. Question: in addition to rolling down the puts, couldn't you also roll down the calls to the new 10 delta strikes and collect a little more premium to offset the loss of rolling down the puts? thanks!
Good Explanation of ICondors. Small Edit needed at 8:33 showing slide with both side calls (It should be put on one side). Thanks.
by far the best channel about trading
thank you
Tasty live is far better, the content you see on this channel originated from Tasty Live with their decades worth of research and access to CBOE records. This channel rehashes that info then tries to sell you a training workshop when longevity is the key factor to build market familiarization
Im missing something here, because according to the numbers and the fact that we should get closer to 80%, without any risk management as he referring it is kind of a suggestion and not most, if we are not rolling so i case of 20% loss will wipe out all our profit and even can lead to loses... imagine wining 8 trades and lose twice, 8* 2000 = 2*8000 so you'll basically break even for ever..
Delta is such a sketchy thing to treat as probability. It's "correlated to probability" when market conditions don't move in a way that are adverse to the initial assumptions. If volatility increases materially, or if the market has drift (trend), or if there was an atypically strongly skewed put/call smile when you opened the position, then it isn't a probability at all.
Bingo. I often think of Delta as probability IF I picked the right direction haha
So how do you have l gauge probability of success then
@@lobsterstrange when delta is 50, your odds of success may be about 35%. As delta approaches 100, or approaches 0, the idea of delta estimating probability gets more accurate. However even that is pretty half-assed for iron condors, the delta-as-probability notion applies to each side, is influenced by how strongly prices are skewed to one side, and by market fear, and how long you hold the position relative to expiry.
In other words, all these simplistic numbers fed to you by RUclipsrs are often complete b/s; it gets them revenue from views, likes, and subscribes.
Instead of delta which can change rapidly, you will be much better off first getting a solid understanding of support and resistance areas and place your condors accordingly
Why does it have to be 60 day contacts. What changes if you were to try this on weeklies or monthlies?
Also, these hypothetical trades don’t account for commissions and slippage which over time, can really eat in to your profits.
How can us lowly mortals get these iron Condor trades from your firm so we follow and learn simultaneously?
Using the same criteria, Looked at 49 DTE, 10 delta trade but the credit was $0.80 per contract. At 10 contracts, max profit $750.
The other options video you mentioned that will show up on the screen never did show up
if you re-watch it, you should see it about a half minute in advance of when he made that comment, not during or after his comment.
How do you handle overnight risk?
Is it always possible to roll the IC? Even if market moves way past one of your legs?
I love this strategy, however at my broker I can't find the delta (probability of reaching that price) at the end of the contract. Which broker/software should I use. furthermore Can I automate this strategy including rolling over the contracts when the price comes to close to the call/put.
Just so y'all know, doing this naively/randomly, this strategy has slight negative expected value due to fat tail risk (happens more than normal distribution would suggest), and in fact you'd eat $26 in commissions to open this, up to $52 to round-trip it. Gotta have a reason for the season (i.e. reason to believe it's a range day).
Another thing to consider is the law of large numbers, to actually achevie an expected return of 80% you need to have ALOT of occurrences of the trade, simply doing this 4 times per year does not get that done. Personally I believe it would be better to trade a 7DTE $5 wide SPX with one contract every week and plot the changes and get used to managemnet, since MUCH of the intrinsic value is lost over the last half of the time, you do not hurt yourself getting into the trade late as long as you are mechanical and stay small.
"7DTE $5 wide SPX"? Could you give me actually numbers...like buy 4570c on dec 5 etc?
Jan3 SPX [7DTE] Sell 4695/4690 Put Spread + Sell 4880/4885 Call Spread for $50 86% POP
These are taining wheels, you wont get rich on this but you are only putting up $450 so return on risk is good.
and you can get your feet wet.
I appreciate that. I was asking for for a real example with real numbers not just $5 apart. English is my second language and don;t understand your example. Do you have actually numbers and dates?@@jonathanvankleeck97
Can't you just set a stop loss to sell at breakeven if the underlying moves too close to your strikes? Then just rinse and repeat
I have a friend who graduated Cornell University, is 23 he has never traded, doesn’t know what he wants to do in life but I think trading would be a good fit for him. I sent him your info! Thanks for all of the amazing videos!
Thanks for that Steve , I do know what i want to do in life actually, so stop thinking for me
I would not trade these type of setups without understanding how to manage them, also doing 10 contracts $10 wide is functionally the same risk as 5 contracts at $20 wide, however commissions would be lower, Also holding out of the money with less than 50% remaining intrinsic value has a diminishing return with no correlated demising risk, as such is is a good idea to manage out at about 50% or so. If the trade is still good, simply roll out and collect more premium.
You mean 50% remaining Extrinsic.
Great video and easily understood. What platform are you trading on?
This is perhaps my favorite of your videos. Seth conveys the relevant concepts with clarity and effectiveness. Let me ask an important question: Do you have the ability to backtest strategies like this on an automated basis? In my case I have the data available in TOS but no means to programatically select an option based on delta (or anything else.) Thanks.
Iron Condor option strategy is for those who are clueless about the movement of the underlying stock. If the stock catches momentum to any one side, it will show a loss, then fear psychology kicks in and the common Joe ends up squaring taking a hit. However, smart guys will try adjustments. All the best.
The diagram around 8:53 area, it is wrong, isn't it?
Thank you for the videos!
So in the first example, 80% chance of winning $1600, minus 20% chance of losing $8400 = minus $400 expected value. Not sure how this is a winning strategy in the long run?
...and that's assuming you can trade these spreads at mid prices for all 4 legs - unlikely.
No options strategy, by itself, is a winning strategy. Option chains generally aren't priced high enough that they have positive expected value. If they were, options sellers would keep getting richer and richer until the market makers finally went broke. You make these strategies succeed by 1) Having an edge (something that makes you right more often than wrong) and 2) Managing the trade when it goes against you (as explained later in the video).
Would be nicer to see non ideal years, 2022 is not a good example - i'd like to know worst case of missing the roll and other methods to completely close the trade, and are there any potential gains of being in the money? best case scenario doesn't make me feel assured enough to start
Im curious why cant you backtest it yourself for the years you deem non-ideal?
2022 IS a BAD year (bearish)
@@Cosmic_Hobo because most people aren't going to fork out the money for quality historical options data just as a learning exercise before getting into ICs; hint, it's ruddy expensive and accessing that data is a learning curve of its own. And most people don't have a background in stochastic calculus to estimate the history based on free daily data for the underlying security. The positioning of the wings in an IC and the premiums received changes quite a bit with implied volatility, and since implied volatility has only a loose relationship to realized volatility (the former is the market psychology, the latter is actual market movement) even trying to estimate data is pretty dubious.
@reidpinchback8850 If one lacks both the minimum funding needed to access quality data and the skills to interpret freely accessible data, I'm of the view those should be their primary concerns before trying to be an options trader unfortunately.
@@Cosmic_Hobo ICs have their place but I'd suggest finding content that realistically discusses the challenges around them. For example, periods of very volatility are usually crappy for selling ICs. Also, the first time a broker forces assignment on one leg and you've suddenly got almost 50 grand of SPY per contract and a corresponding margin debt, can take your breath away.
why February 56 Days? that not one Month that is two Months Price.
Do you have a stop loss criteria?
It wasn't clear to me if Seth was advocating the use of 20∆ as the adjustment signal to roll the position, throughout the life of the trade, or only on the last day of the trade.
The video showed the Delta 20, 18 days before expiration.
Great video! Thank you 🙏
Thx for the great explanation!! .. Is it possible that the graphic (at around 8 minute and 50 second) mistakenly displays the “calls” at the bottom side of the trade, instead of the “puts”?
Yes, I caught that as well.
Were do i learn the option buyers trading?
How exactly do you roll for a credit? Wouldn't you just roll indefinitely until your trade wins?
Win rates are meaningless. Yes you may win 80% of the time, but when you lose you lose 5 times more than you win.
You manage your losers so they don’t lose 5X. Use logic.
But you just get the shares.. which you can sell
Then we should be looking at the size of our trades to minimize this frustration
Just like RR is worthless, you can have a 1:1000 RR but your win rate is 0% you will lose lmao it’s all relevant bro
@@vicpso1not on the SPX, it’s just gone.
Hi Seth! I love your trading ideas, particularly the iron condors. However, the regime in my country changed the tax laws for options trading. In brief: The winning legs are taxed with 25% whereas the losing legs are your personal problem... (it's a bit more complicated, but that's what it is). That means that even if my condor would generate an overall loss, the resulting taxes (for a loss!) could ruin me - as intended by the government. We assume that it will take up to 10 years for our highest courts to invalidate these laws (for they are obviously violating the constitution), but until then we are stuck with them. Do you have some trading ideas for people who are currently not able to do a proper loss off-setting? 😬
Does that country have tax deferred retirement accounts?
@@Brayness Of course not. There is a public pension scheme that is continuously under repair, with politicians unable to make the necessary reforms. If we don't believe in the longevity of this system, we have to provide for our old age ourselves somehow. Stock market volunteers for that purpose, but the mentioned 'funny' tax regulations are counterproductive. Utopia looks different.
Awesome video ❤ love detailed explanation 👍
Very interesting info...thanka for the video
di you guys back test the strategy or you just give this here
Does delta change over time?
Why is this iron Condor strategy based on two month expirations?
Why do a 60 DTE?
why 60 days? Rather than 4 weeks say, or 12?
i do believe spx can run 300 point in 60 days since u say is unlucky good look at chart u see in one month did run 250 point lately
so you take a trade that has a 11.23% failure rate and risk 8400 to make 1000 or 11.9%. so the net expectation over time is .6% return on your money right? that doesn't seem like a very good trade. its like you only talk about 1 aspect of the trade to lure new people into the options class. you never really talk about risk management and expectations.
You would lose all $8400 if you chose not to manage the IC to expiration. If you manage it by rolling, you can still make a profit but not as much as anticipated or small loss. OR you could close the IC completely for a smaller loss than full. The video did briefly discuss risk management by showing the roll.
Yes, I trade 1DTE SPX at around the 5-7 Delta and make $100 per $2K of risk put on every day.. If the trade goes against me, I roll up the tested side and put on additional contracts to pay for it. and or roll up the untested side and collect more premium. Good management helps to create a higher effective POP than just the normal statistical rates would predict.
First of all, the option class he is referring to is FREE. Second, from your comment you don't understand options and should do something else with your money.
It is a good trade, and it will absolutely work, however the setups are not what I would do without having a very good understanding of the risk. 10 contracts at $10 wide is not what you want to start with while you are learning, but you COULD do one contract at $5 wide and learn the process.
Most importantly you REALLY need to know how to manage trades that go against you, it is quite easy to speak generally in a video, but when you have a bad trade affect your netliq it is anther matter altogeather.
Put it this way; if you do 10 trades
1 trade loss 8400
9 trade wins 14,400
So net profit $6000
But you started your account with $8400
Hence you lost -$2400
But if you do 100 trades
You potentially lost 10 trades $84,000
You potentially wins 90 trades or $144,000
So your nett profit $60,000
Conclusions: One needs to do a LOT of trades to put the odds in your favour
I am a graduate student based in NYC. I am looking for internships this summer, is the firm hiring?
I'm famous for selling puts/calls and having the strike price get blown the fuck out in the first week every time.
Where would you put stops?
they dont do stops. their scenario is always "managed" perfectly.
@@Eqnotalent I mean what would the loss be if they are wrong? Seems huge.
Is trading iron condors reasonable when the VIX is ~12-13? Your strikes need to be very close to get any premium so I'm tempted to way for more usual VIX levels
Every option strategy will make money if they go your way.
How is that done?
Answer: Access to information. The big players have information that we do not have access to.
You can't do option spreads with Charles Schaub on a cash account. You must have a margin account and have $25,000 in the account at all times. Your videos show how to do spreads and condors on a $1,000 account.
❤❤❤
Stop with the iron condors as a sure fire way to make money. How many people have to blow up before you stop this nonsense?
You also show "beginners" at option trading doing spreads. No broker will authorize a beginner to do level 2 trading. My broker will ask questions to see if you know what you are doing before authorizing level 2. Any wrong answers will end in a denial.
Can you guys make these like 4-5x shorter?
These are meant to be sales pitches for newbies
RUclipsrs will generally try to hit around 20 minutes unless they are doing shorts. It's because otherwise their videos won't get monetized from ad placements. Anybody doing anything shorter than that is creating the content entirely for free unless they have a sponsor paying them.
80 % ??? je je je.
Why is the answer always an iron condor.. Iron condors are for institutional trading wimps.
stop with these 4 legged plays... they are so lame.
what do you suggest better than these ''4 legged plays''?
@@elivy228 An iron condor requires level 4 which means a huge majority of the RUclips audience doesn’t even have that access.
So I don’t get why they assume every RUclipsr can even employ this strategy. Also the hedging at every turn is not how I like to trade. But ultimately they need to figure out their audience can’t even execute what they recommend because the broker won’t allow them.
I can do you better with a 96.7% win rate, but my profit will be lackluster with a loss to win ratio so lopsided that would make me nauseated 🤮
There is a sweetspot, which in my opinion is around 5 to 7 delta, I exclusively trade 1 and 0 DTE SPX and NDX at around 7 Delta, and collection about $100 (if possible) for every $2K of risk.