How a Simple Candles Strategy Achieved a 90% Win Rate With 7-Year Automated Backtest

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  • Опубликовано: 21 ноя 2024

Комментарии • 186

  • @KEMALIST-1911
    @KEMALIST-1911 12 дней назад +51

    Here is a system I tried with ninjascript , it worked nicely, I am improving. Basically I created an RSI indicator by subtracting a fast RSI from slow RSI. Fast RSI has half the period of slow RSI. This way you have a relative RSI that is sensitive to momentum changes. Then I used standard error band on this new RSI. Long when RSI crosses above the upper band, short when RSI crosses below the lower band. These crosses indicate momentum initiations. I use TTM squeeze to filter for better signals. I use NQ 133 tick data. 100s of trades a day, very high win rate.

    • @KEMALIST-1911
      @KEMALIST-1911 12 дней назад +7

      Using fixed stop along with dynamic stop and target based on ATR trailing stop indicator

    • @qamer88
      @qamer88 12 дней назад

      @@KEMALIST-1911 Sonuc nasil paylasa bilirmisin?. Ugrasmaya degerse mt5 kodlayip denemeyi dusunuyorum. Bu tarz stratejilerin genellikle sorunu spread oluyor.

    • @beautifullybrilliant7542
      @beautifullybrilliant7542 12 дней назад +4

      Use stochastic RSI indicator instead how's your RSI that you customized to your liking. Instead This stochastic RSI is the proper version of what you were trying to do you want to set it 80 and 20 overbought oversold and when the lines cross either at the bottom or top. It's one of the best indicators you can use

    • @RESPECT-bu1fr
      @RESPECT-bu1fr 12 дней назад

      Source code, please. ​@KEMALIST-1911

    • @osmansaner8237
      @osmansaner8237 12 дней назад +1

      üstad 15 dakika ve 30 dakika 1 saatlik zaman diliminde rsi periodunu kac ayarlıyorsun..

  • @marylward360
    @marylward360 12 дней назад +3

    Thanks for all the great work your doing for the community

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад +1

      Thank you for your support! Glad this is useful.

  • @raa729
    @raa729 12 дней назад +2

    Pretty cool, you showed a comment from my friend, Vassilis, I know him for over 10 years )

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад +3

      Great Guy! I wonder where he is now, he's usually one of the first to leave comments in here :)

  • @naveen6630
    @naveen6630 11 дней назад +4

    Hey, I mean the algorithmic trading, you are killin it. I can see we need to use indicators available to build a strategy, but I wanted to understand whether we can build a algorithm based on smc concept and our own entry types in that. Thank you.

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  10 дней назад +1

      Short answer definitely yes, we can code anything in python!

    • @preciousessien4950
      @preciousessien4950 3 дня назад +1

      Yes you can ,i’m an Mql5/4 developer and i can build you your strategy if you are interested

  • @behnamkhorsandian
    @behnamkhorsandian 12 дней назад +8

    This is the most underrated channel ever...

  • @Whitespike77
    @Whitespike77 7 дней назад +1

    Love this strat! The only bad thing about it is that the 250 pip SL does not work. It stops trading with 50-86 % fall from top.

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      I agree it's not a complete strategy yet, there is room for improvement.

    • @Whitespike77
      @Whitespike77 3 дня назад

      @@CodeTradingCafe But its the best strat I have come across if I know a bullmarket is coming :)

  • @ziqiudu3092
    @ziqiudu3092 10 дней назад +4

    I am a trader from chain, this is very very very useful and high success rate. excellent❤❤❤

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  9 дней назад

      Glad to hear that! Thank you for your comment.

  • @AspiringAutomaticTrader
    @AspiringAutomaticTrader День назад

    In the last 6 months backtesting gives 58% winrate on exactly 50 trades, with a -18% balance loss overall.

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  16 часов назад

      It also depends on the assets, but this is just one candles pattern it can be added to other indicators in parallel.

  • @JohnJay-u7b
    @JohnJay-u7b 8 дней назад

    This is the best video out there!! Thank you so much!! Really appreciate it!!!

  • @casadodevjunior1939
    @casadodevjunior1939 6 дней назад +1

    Do you think this performance is really appliable in real life? As you mentioned, only selected stocks perform well on this setup, but when we work with the present, it looks difficult to guess what stock is going to work, even when a stock gives us a good pattern in the past, it doesnt garantee that the future will follow the same pattern

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      The best is to find let's 5 different patterns, and run them in parallel on let's say 10 different assets. We will always have loosing versus winning assets, but the candles patterns will make the difference in a way that the total is always in the positive returns side. This however requires more work to test lots of patterns and on lots of assets to make the selection. It's like any investment strategy you try to diversify all your parameters.

  • @mariaandrawos
    @mariaandrawos 5 дней назад

    Great work Dr Ziad, very informative channel!

  • @AndreSilva-cb3tz
    @AndreSilva-cb3tz 9 дней назад

    Thanks for the great video! Keep going on please! I have a question. If the agregated return is 186% in 7 years, then someone with 100€ would have 286€ after the 7 years of trading?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      Yes that is correct, I know it's not impressive but this is how these algos work.

    • @elvivo3699
      @elvivo3699 3 дня назад

      doesn't matter, if you know how to trade, people will practically be begging you to manage their money. its really easy to pass a prop firm challenge

    • @elvivo3699
      @elvivo3699 3 дня назад

      and i dont say that to discourage you ! if you take the time and effort and really lock in theres nothing holding you back!!!!!!!

  • @RogersGianna
    @RogersGianna 5 дней назад +1

    Had some success, but the key is understanding the market. Trading offers more potential than holding, especially with Trump’s policies changing things up. Charts alone won’t cut it, Honestly,James Whisman completely transformed my approach to trading. his insights aren’t just helpful but the personalized guidance really helped me see things clearly and grab opportunities

  • @nontonfilm.spoiler
    @nontonfilm.spoiler 12 дней назад +3

    by the way, how i can execute exactly using this code for Metatrader 5? btw thx for that helpful information to the community!

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад +1

      Thank you! this code only runs on python it needs to be translated to MQL before running on MT5.

    • @nontonfilm.spoiler
      @nontonfilm.spoiler 11 дней назад

      @@CodeTradingCafe thx mate

    • @mmustap3
      @mmustap3 10 дней назад

      you can also use the mt5 library for python, but you can only operate it on a windows platform

    • @olb47
      @olb47 4 дня назад

      ​@@mmustap3use AI to rewrite it to mql

  • @abr.4419
    @abr.4419 12 дней назад +2

    In which TMF works this stratgy? And how to implement the script? And where must be implementet on mt4 or tradingview?

    • @marianosanchez7488
      @marianosanchez7488 11 дней назад

      tradingview
      indicator("turendu", overlay = true)
      test = open[1]>close[1] and high[0]>high[1] and close[0]>low[1] and close[0]

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      Hi, daily timeframe, the script as is is just for backtesting, but you can translate it to MQL language to run it in mt4 or pinescript is you want to run it in tradingview.

    • @abr.4419
      @abr.4419 11 дней назад

      @@marianosanchez7488 i am trying too finde those candelsticks but i cant find it ...

  • @olb47
    @olb47 4 дня назад

    Thank you for a video it will be second strstegy for my tradnig bot. However I write mine with TypeScript. Python is too hard for me to maintain - simple thing like importing in python is overkilled.

  • @mekabozar6855
    @mekabozar6855 12 дней назад +1

    Hey just a question . What do you think about option trading? Have you ever tried that? Also for metatrader 5 do you know any good broker for us residents?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      Hi, I haven't traded options myself but I have friends who did and it's a specific mindset, you need to read related books and check tutorials for this.

    • @olb47
      @olb47 4 дня назад

      ​@@CodeTradingCafecould you ask them for resources that are worth to read?

  • @ah89971
    @ah89971 9 дней назад +1

    I have question, is the backtest library reliable. Has anyone compared to the real time, assuming fixed spread and slippage, commission etc?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      It's a good question, I am sure it's reliable because adding a fee percentage is not complicated but most importantly you need to read their documentation to know what and how exactly are they treating the data in the background, sometimes it's good enough just to know.

    • @ah89971
      @ah89971 3 дня назад

      @CodeTradingCafe thanks🙏

  • @anandsoumya818
    @anandsoumya818 8 дней назад

    Awesome. Any pine script for the same python code that will help

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      Not yet, you might want to try chatGPT for translating python into pine it might work.

  • @akashdeepmishra7835
    @akashdeepmishra7835 11 дней назад

    Thanks very much for this informative video, can you please point me to the code link ?😊

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  10 дней назад

      Hi, yes the link is in the description of the video. Thank you for your support!

  • @asuras3409
    @asuras3409 11 дней назад +20

    26% profit after 7 years with 7% max drowdown is pretty horrible. And you didn't calculate fees for the 211 trades. I mean in a savings account you make 4% p.a. right now risk free.

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад +10

      Hi, fees are accounted for in the backtest (commission parameter in the code), usually when using the daily timeframe fees effect is minimal because the price range is relatively large so the trade covers the fees and spread comfortably. I agree that the profits are limited but this is one pattern among others, this type of trading needs to identify let's say 5 patterns and run simultaneously on different assets to increase the signal frequency. I hope this clarifies a bit the potential of the indicator.

    • @asuras3409
      @asuras3409 11 дней назад +4

      @@CodeTradingCafe Sorry mate, I overlooked the commission parameter in the code. I'm curios how the strategy performs on smaller timeframes.

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  10 дней назад +1

      No worries, I don't think it would work on smaller timeframes, the candles patterns are usually stronger/more certain on daily. We could try it though.

    • @okkrom
      @okkrom 7 дней назад +1

      Do you have 500k in your savings account?
      Did you forget about leverage?

  • @johnbertvillamor5701
    @johnbertvillamor5701 12 дней назад

    Hello sir what platform do you use to trade so that I can use it for experimental purposes?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад +2

      I trade with Oanda and Binance ( these are for algorithmic trading). Others offer options of trading as well though (IB...)

  • @SimplyScalping
    @SimplyScalping 12 дней назад

    Can you do a vide using machine learning to optimise oversold overbought indicators for an asset?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      Not specifically, but I do have ML videos using models for trading check this one for example : ruclips.net/video/tNFnACpzxVw/видео.htmlsi=VmY75U2TC9eQ0nc0

  • @naimrached1409
    @naimrached1409 12 дней назад +1

    But in real market, you have to work on bid and ask, can you please incorporate it ?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      Hi, this is taken into account in the commission parameter, the average spread is included in the backtest, and usually it's not an issue when backtesting on daily timeframe because the price range is relatively large, it does however make a difference if we are running on minutes timeframe for sure.

  • @kenzamejhed4163
    @kenzamejhed4163 12 дней назад

    The best channel ''🙌🙌😎😎

  • @antondishantha1139
    @antondishantha1139 10 дней назад

    could someone explain how to add this to the trading view? It's quite interesting, Thank you Code trading...

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  9 дней назад

      Hi, sorry from my side I don't code in pinescript but you can easily try to use chatGPT to translate this code to pinescript indicator.

  • @boamahmarcus4002
    @boamahmarcus4002 13 дней назад +1

    Great video

  • @wizardsetups
    @wizardsetups 7 часов назад

    It's missing some information...

  • @marketmindsmatrix-f1o
    @marketmindsmatrix-f1o 11 дней назад +1

    Hi, great video! I’m really intrigued by the 'Simple Candles Strategy' that achieved a 90% win rate with a 7-year automated backtest as presented by Larry Williams. If we were to implement this strategy on the stock market with random stocks, do you think it would produce the same 90% win rate, or would the results vary significantly based on the asset or market conditions? Would love to hear your thoughts on this!

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  10 дней назад

      Hi, thank you. In my opinion it might fail on different assets, I haven't seen any patter/strategy that works on all the assets, this is usually part of the robustness testing where we test the strategy on different assets to see if it still works. For this one (presented in this video) I don't think all the assets are good candidates, we could backtest it and run it on the optimal selection.

    • @marketmindsmatrix-f1o
      @marketmindsmatrix-f1o 10 дней назад

      @@CodeTradingCafe Thanks for your input! I agree that not all assets are suitable for every strategy, and robustness testing is key. While I can’t run the backtest directly, you could test it on NVIDIA stock?

  • @sammyscrunch6425
    @sammyscrunch6425 12 дней назад +1

    How we can get data folder for back testing ?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      There is a link in the description of the video.

  • @DEEPAKCHAUDHARI-d9g
    @DEEPAKCHAUDHARI-d9g 13 дней назад +3

    Thank you sir..Always awaiting for your new video....

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      Always welcome! Thank you for your support.

  • @thirudinesh940
    @thirudinesh940 День назад

    Is it Possible to implement ICT concepts in trading with algo way

  • @Ali.Ahmad.krd.
    @Ali.Ahmad.krd. 10 дней назад

    Keep it up!

  • @arlettafarah
    @arlettafarah 5 дней назад

    Awesome Dr Ziad, we just found your channel and it's very inspiring!!

  • @arinzebenjamin8396
    @arinzebenjamin8396 10 дней назад

    What do I need to learn to be able to write these programs?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  10 дней назад +1

      First you need to learn Python language, then some data analysis skills, and finally dive into the trading part.

    • @arinzebenjamin8396
      @arinzebenjamin8396 8 дней назад

      @CodeTradingCafe thank you, I am already into trading, but I want to automate and remove the human errors that comes from discretionary trading. It's killing me. Machines don't think, don't argue, don't hesitate etc.

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  2 дня назад

      That's good then, you can go for python as a good start.

  • @FreqtradeFR
    @FreqtradeFR 9 дней назад

    Impressive!

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      The winrate yes, the returns maybe not that much but still positive.

  • @wjc1514
    @wjc1514 9 дней назад

    Did backtest included tradeing fee?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      Yes fees are included, with the daily timeframe fees are not an issue.

  • @vmakwana46
    @vmakwana46 День назад

    How to setup can you pls guide

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  17 часов назад

      This is just a backtest, you can rewrite for live trading or live signals.

    • @vmakwana46
      @vmakwana46 16 часов назад

      But can you guide me ?

    • @vmakwana46
      @vmakwana46 16 часов назад

      I don't want to rewrite, when your strategy is win rate is above 80 percent

  • @alexprokachev
    @alexprokachev 8 дней назад

    How to get in contact with you? What is the other pair?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      You can't ... I will find you :) ... joking I can't commit to additional projects at the moment.

  • @sammyscrunch6425
    @sammyscrunch6425 12 дней назад

    Hi,
    Can we make indicator on pine script for simple candles strategy ?

    • @hardkoz6243
      @hardkoz6243 12 дней назад

      Yeah use gpt it will make it for you

    • @sammyscrunch6425
      @sammyscrunch6425 12 дней назад

      @hardkoz6243 thank you

    • @suryazth
      @suryazth 12 дней назад

      Indicator is just a tool, better to use SMC

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      ChatGPT is a good idea to translate into pinescript, let us know how it goes for you :)

  • @ioigido821
    @ioigido821 10 дней назад

    감사합니다

  • @whattjet
    @whattjet 12 дней назад

    If I look at your short setup entry graph, it feels like you are describing it wrong. It is not the same as the reference video's. The Buy setup entry is also wrong.

    • @crispyduck1706
      @crispyduck1706 11 дней назад

      Spot on they got that completely wrong wonder if they back tested the wrong strategy

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      Hi, actually in the referred video if you check their description text there is a link where you can download a pdf where they provide more details, this is one of the variations they described I will publish the others as well soon. Numerically there is no difference between our code and the strategy described in their docs.

  • @prafulyadav9403
    @prafulyadav9403 7 дней назад

    what this candlestick pattern called as ??

  • @pritamjunnarkar
    @pritamjunnarkar 11 дней назад

    Which time frame?

  • @TheRealworld270
    @TheRealworld270 11 дней назад

    What is the strategy name?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  10 дней назад

      I don't recap it has a specific name, just a candles pattern.

  • @uncledee_e
    @uncledee_e 12 дней назад

    Can it be tested with crypto

    • @holdem235
      @holdem235 12 дней назад +1

      Ofcourse it cant, its forbidden.

    • @hardkoz6243
      @hardkoz6243 12 дней назад

      ​@@holdem235ahahahah 🤣

    • @uncledee_e
      @uncledee_e 11 дней назад

      @@holdem235 mmmh ok

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад +1

      It can be tested on any chart regardless the asset... it doesn't mean it will always work though.

    • @uncledee_e
      @uncledee_e 11 дней назад

      @@CodeTradingCafe Worth a try. Thanks

  • @mahe1234
    @mahe1234 7 дней назад

    Name of the candles

  • @ljones85
    @ljones85 6 дней назад

    What timeframe?

  • @jaydy71
    @jaydy71 2 дня назад

    It's very interesting (especially considering its simplicity), but personally I'd never put any real money behind something like this.
    At just 0.06% average profit it will probably still result in a net loss (considering trading fees), and such a small percentage is well within the margin of error.
    Also with just 211 trades in back testing, the statistical significance doesn't seem super convincing to me (even with that high win-rate).
    In my personal experience, getting a high win-rate like this is relatively easy: Just be happy with many very small profits and don't care about occasional big losses that undo all those small profits (which those 10% of losing trades have a high chance to be).
    Not a criticism of this video mind you, which was I think very well presented (and actually addresses most of my concerns). It's certainly an interesting exercise, but don't put real money in an overly simplistic strategy like this!

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  День назад +1

      Hi thank you I agree on the stats part and definitely this is not a complete strategy, just to be precise the fees were included in the backtest.

    • @jaydy71
      @jaydy71 День назад

      @@CodeTradingCafe Ah, yes I should've been clear that my concern about fees was actually included in the test and addressed in the video. (Note to self: start writing after watching the whole video).
      Still, that average profit is so incredibly low that I think it's worth pointing out that it could easily be destroyed by market spread alone (taking down that high win-rate in the process), right?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  17 часов назад +1

      Not on the daily timeframe, usually the price range covers spread and fees very comfortably, but if you use lower timeframes the risk is higher.

    • @jaydy71
      @jaydy71 16 часов назад

      @@CodeTradingCafe Thanks for your reply. I'm not sure I understand you correctly though. I mean spread fluctuates continuously, regardless of what timeframe the candlestick graph is in, right? I suppose what mainly matters there is what asset you trade in (i.e. trading random low-cap crypto meme-coin probably has higher risk of high spread than, say, trading some large-cap stock). Probably market conditions too.
      My personal algo-trading efforts (FWIW) are in crypto, where spread >0.06% is not uncommon.

  • @misha5048
    @misha5048 12 дней назад

    excelente ❤

  • @Unknown-e5f
    @Unknown-e5f 8 дней назад

    So basically 30 trades a year over the 7 years?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      Yes, the idea is to run let's say 5 patterns in parallel and do we can get 5 times that.

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  3 дня назад

      Yes, the idea is to run let's say 5 patterns in parallel and do we can get 5 times that.

  • @AjaySharma-gw8pp
    @AjaySharma-gw8pp 12 дней назад +1

    Hello sir please create the same statargy for Mt5

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      Hi, I am not using MQL, but you can easily use chatGPT yo translate this code for MQL5

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  9 дней назад

      Hi, not using MT for a while

  • @billmolloy2264
    @billmolloy2264 12 дней назад

  • @beautifullybrilliant7542
    @beautifullybrilliant7542 12 дней назад

    The second indicator looks to me like a trailing stop loss

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад

      No trailing, we just fixed the SL in relation to the entry position.

  • @Iam_ThaniOruvan
    @Iam_ThaniOruvan 7 дней назад

    Ea name?

  • @mmustap3
    @mmustap3 11 дней назад

    Curious to know what your live portfolio is like if you would like to share!

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  10 дней назад +1

      Depends on how busy I am, some months I don't trade at all, sometimes I have 12 hours working days and trading is time consuming so I try to avoid it, last year I had to skip over 6 months of trading. It depends on the season I guess, but recently I have been less and less active (in trading I mean) other projects are taking the priority (less stress).
      But if you are looking for a number it's around 8-14% profit per year on average with some exceptions (reaching up to 24% per year).

  • @mikimile6763
    @mikimile6763 12 дней назад

    Hello author, can you turn this indicator into multiple timeframe putting the logic exactly same? I mean it will plot 3 pivot lines in smae indicator based on different timeframe such as 3 minutes 5 minutes and 15 minutes. This one below 👇
    "The next pivot by kiosefftrading"

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  11 дней назад +1

      I will have to look into the details.

    • @mikimile6763
      @mikimile6763 11 дней назад

      @@CodeTradingCafe Can we discuss on messenger or WhatsApp?

  • @QTCrypto
    @QTCrypto 11 дней назад

    Wow ❤

  • @codyane
    @codyane 12 дней назад

    intresting

  • @xDDBF
    @xDDBF 10 дней назад

    can't you give us the .py files too please?

    • @CodeTradingCafe
      @CodeTradingCafe  10 дней назад

      Hi, I didn't use any .py file it's just the Jupyter notebook that was presented in the video.

  • @seanmatthews8280
    @seanmatthews8280 День назад

    Another useless high win rate strategy.