I think this kills the chances of a Best Picture nom for both Air and Saltburn. No way the studio is going to prioritise a movie that has not much buzz and a movie that was deemed very divisive over the TIFF winner.
DiCaprio gets snubbed and Jeffrey Wright gets in. I feel like that's not an unlikely scenario. Picture, Actor, Screenplay and Editing are all on the cards for this one.
@@lucasmello1022 personally I have my doubts there. It still has over a 90 on metacritic but that score does keep ticking down after each premiere. I think Glazer may get in for director but I'm not so sure about picture. It might be too out there and difficult for the Academy. At the very least I don't think it's top 5.
@@kennyclocks5047 Payne has an Oscar for that film. I wouldn't say it was shafted. Plus I think the Academy has made it clear they don't care about that Sideways snub for Paul anymore. They feel they made up for it with that supporting actor nom for Cinderella Man
Awesome vid lads. Since it’s TIFF win I have defo put AF in my Top 10 for BP. The reactions, the themes and the usual stats are enough to make me think it’s getting in (for now). Although I have no idea when I’m gonna get to see it. It’s not in the LFF lineup so I may have to wait for the awards screenings. Was hoping you would give your ratings on the film overall. Where do you both stand in terms of a score rating? Xx
I genuinely think Giamatti might just miss. I think Cooper is also possible, but he could just have *enough* votes; it's a toss up between those two for who I think is 5th, but I also think Wright might just use GG, CC and BAFTA to leapfrog
I think the main lesson we should learn from Till is with the modern Academy if it does not have a real international release, it is not a strong contender in any category. So will this be released (and supported) throughout at least Europe and Asia?
@@pb.j.1753 UK was the only country it made over 1M in. It made just over 2M total and did not even release in Japan. I don’t think that it had a wide release (and if it did it was a huge failure).
@@outdoorcats One of us is incorrect about how many Oscar voters live in LA. With how many new voters come from other countries (I think the Academy boasted 40% of new inductees each of the past year were foreign), I’m pretty sure most of those foreigners don’t live in LA. This is only like the third or fourth year with this large of an international presence in the Academy, so we don’t know for sure, but it does seem like most “snubs” as described by American pundits and fans did not get a real international release, so I think it is a very logical theory (though of course it could prove wrong, with Rustin being a big test case; releasing equally strong in every country because it’s streaming, if Rustin fails to get any noms then the alternate theory of simple racism becomes much more likely).
@@thrawncaedusl717Please explain the three Oscar nominations for Can You Ever Forgive me that was a financial hit - nowhere. Oscar voters don’t watch films at the public theater obviously.
@@pb.j.1753 maybe not (though I’m not sure how true that is), but they certainly see the ads for movies when they release. My argument is that this is a difference that just started last year or a couple of years ago (as a result of increased foreign population of the Academy, something I think they started pushing for only like 5 years ago). I could be wrong, but right now it’s a theory that makes sense to me, and if Rustin gets a lead actor nomination over some of the more American focused openings then I will consider that strong evidence supporting the theory.
I do think as u looked at American Fiction’s critic scores, The Boy and The Heron is crushing with the critics. 100% rotten tomatoes 8.8/10 avg rating. 89 certified score on metacritic. Combine this with the inevitable box office splash, the film should be taken into account…
Really happy about this. I was intrigued by the premise and grabbed stuff on GoldDerby right before the premiere when the buzz started. Wondering how the placements will affect best actor considering Jeffrey Wright's film just beat Paul Giamatti's. Also wondering if Boy and the Heron will at least get nominated in one other category (probably score). Last animated movie to place in a PCA category was Flee (albeit for the documentary category, and Boy and the Heron has the added factor working against it that Japan didn't submit it)
I'm not gonna lie. When they were talking about potential snubs for Jeffrey Wright the one that instantly sprang to mind was Giamatti. Not because of this result but because the Academy has made it clear they don't really give a crap about him. Domingo has the added benefit of Color Purple potentially making noise.
Also, all of them except the 2011 winner and last year's winner THE FABELMANS won at least 1 above-the-line category (above-the-line means writing, directing, acting, and picture).
let's be honest, TIFF is extremely weak this year and Venice+Cannes ate them up. American fiction might slip into a 10th spot but for now I won't give it too much thought except for maybe Best Actor
The premise of “American Fiction” sounds like Spike Lee’s 2000 film “Bamboozled.” In that film, a TV producer played by Damon Wayans gets a cartoonishly stereotypical show on the air to prove a point. He’s sarcastically protesting what he perceives as limited images of blacks in entertainment. The plot of “American Fiction” with Jeffrey Wright’s author protagonist seems to be the literary equivalent.
I don’t see American Fiction beating Poor Things at SAG Ensemble or WGA. I’m also hopping on board the Jeffrey Wright Best Actor train. He’s hella overdue.
Right now my Best Picture predictions are really solid, and I’d be surprised if any of them missed at this point 1. Oppenheimer 2. Poor Things 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. The Holdovers 5. Barbie 6. Past Lives 7. The Color Purple 8. Anatomy of a Fall 9. American Fiction 10. Maestro
You are a newbie then. The Color Purple might easily miss, Past Lives can miss, I would say that it is number 10 right now and we have no idea about Anatomy of a Fall//Zone of Interest until we see the European Awards noms. Maestro and American Fiction are also a question mark. Holdovers is not a lock, especially if Rose McGowan decides to attack Payne again. Napoleon might be a huge player as well. The only locks are Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie.
@@manantial773 First, I’m not saying these are my final nominations, just that each of them have strong narratives warranting their place in the 10. Secondly, agree to disagree on a few points. I think Anatomy of a Fall is already a lock after it won the Palmes D’Or and has continued to be a major part of the fall festival circuit garnering huge acclaim and building buzz. Zone of Interest I agree with, but that’s why I don’t have it in. Past Lives has definitely lost some steam since the festival season started but I think it will still be enough of a critical darling that A24 will campaign it well enough to a nom. The Color Purple is a bit of an unknown quantity but as of now I have no reason to doubt it as an Oscars package. The Holdovers could absolutely face some backlash over Payne, but only time will tell with that one. I see Maestro as being The Irishman, a Netflix movie that doesn’t have a super passionate fanbase but gets a bunch of noms. And for me American Fiction is the start of Amazon’s big return to the Oscars circuit, since they said they’re emphasizing theatrical releases more after the MGM purchase, and after winning TIFF, it’s in a really good position.
This is definitely a movie to look out for during awards season. It’s a pretty damn good contender in adapted screenplay (like around the number 4 slot), it’s Amazon mgm so they would campaign the crap out of this (especially after the TIFF win and the fact that it’s looks and sounds to be more crowd pleasing than Saltburn), and Jeffrey Wright has a pretty good chance in best actor (I wouldn’t say a lock but he is definitely in the running I would say)
Honestly, very... very competitive year for Best Actor. Possibly one of the most competitive in recent times. Someone is going to get snubbed and we're all going to be shocked.
Cooper (and Maestro as a whole) has already been on shaky ground this whole season; the only reason he’s stayed in the top 5 as long as he has is because there hasn’t been a strong number 6 top challenge him, now that there is I think he gets bounced.
I have a feeling once Maestro shows up at NYFF & AFI Fest alongside other festivals it might go to (like BFI London), there'll be enough conversation for Maestro to get back in. Maybe there isn't much talk about it right now, because it got crammed in the middle of the festival, rather than playing it near the beginning or the end of the festival.
If this is a Picture player after this, maybe I’m including Jeffrey Wright in my Best Actor Predictions. I’m keeping Murphy, Cooper, DiCaprio and Giamatti. Could switch Wright or Colman Domingo for the number 5 spot.
@@seankoontz4235 I don’t know about completely done. But from what I’ve heard about Saltburn, it may be divisive but I’ve heard great things about his performance. That and Best Actor does seem to be competitive for now, so I moved Keoghan down from my Top 5.
Lots of big movies are skipping TIFF - Dunno but TIFF doesn't seem to have as much impact as it did not from an Oscar hype standpoint and not from sale standpoint either. TIFF has become a bit sterile and mainstream to the point that some don't want to fuck with it anymore which is a shame because it is or was The film festival to show movies from all over, smaller affairs, there are a lot of smaller movies being shown there (for sales mostly) but they tend to get overlooked for the big ones. Like last year, a Spielberg movie won, I mean a great movie don't get me wrong but for a film festival?
I’ve only read one other review, which is very positive, but I don’t know much detail about American Fiction. Your own response and what you report about people you know thinking the same as you, that the film is sometimes unfocused etc., is very interesting. No idea what to make of this one.
OMGG Past Lives screenplay is still win-competitive. 😭😭 I’m sorry but this year I’ll have to root against any films that try to take away past lives ONLY chance of winning an Oscars.
Lead actor next year is gonna be a death trap. Between Murphy, Cooper, DiCaprio, Domingo, Giamatti, Wright, and Scott. I dunno how awards shows are gonna pick one.
I don’t get why Cooper wouldn’t be an 100%. I know it’s hard when you wanna squeeze six into a lineup of five, but I can’t see it being win when he has winner hype.
I'm being stubborn about keeping Napoleon in picture and Joaquin Phoenix in actor on Gold Derby which makes it difficult to fit in American Fiction and Jeffrey Wright... Still so many question marks, almost any of the movies supposedly in contention can miss. Oppenheimer, KOTFM, and Poor Things are the only ones that are rock solid.
I thought the movie was terrific from start to finish. The commentary on the limited range of stories that are acceptable from certain populations was very timely
This movie was not great. Wright is very unlikable, the humor making fun of white people showed a double standard. If white people made a movie making fun of black people, it would be offensive and considered trash, not award winning. The movie was kind of funny at other times though. Mixed feelings on this one.
I don’t think the movie was making fun of white people as a whole…it called out the very real phenomenon of a specific type of white person who only wants to see black trauma and poverty movies and books and nothing else
@@bryanalstoncoxingyeah, and even if the blanket statement of “they’re making fun of white people” is true, if white people act in a way that makes them easy to be made fun of, then by all means, it’s fair game
![BLACK BAG - Official Trailer [HD] - Only in Theaters March 14](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Du0Xp8WX_7I/mqdefault.jpg)
I stop whatever I'm doing to watch Oscar Expert, and I dont think I'm in the minority there.
You are not, it’s an immediate click!
Without a doubt
You’re definitely not alone.
Same .. I love these guys
yyeap, same
I think this kills the chances of a Best Picture nom for both Air and Saltburn. No way the studio is going to prioritise a movie that has not much buzz and a movie that was deemed very divisive over the TIFF winner.
DiCaprio gets snubbed and Jeffrey Wright gets in. I feel like that's not an unlikely scenario. Picture, Actor, Screenplay and Editing are all on the cards for this one.
The Holdovers not winning might be the most important part of this. That might indicate it is actually not a top 3 contender.
Of course it isn't top 3. That is Oppy, Poor Things, and Killers. But it very much feels like a solid 4.
@@jurney3478I still think Zone Of Interest will receive love from the Academy and end at the top 4.
@@lucasmello1022 personally I have my doubts there. It still has over a 90 on metacritic but that score does keep ticking down after each premiere. I think Glazer may get in for director but I'm not so sure about picture. It might be too out there and difficult for the Academy. At the very least I don't think it's top 5.
Depends how badly the academy wants to make up for shafting Alexander Payne, Giammati and Sideways in 2004
@@kennyclocks5047 Payne has an Oscar for that film. I wouldn't say it was shafted. Plus I think the Academy has made it clear they don't care about that Sideways snub for Paul anymore. They feel they made up for it with that supporting actor nom for Cinderella Man
I really appreciate the amount of facts and insights you both give in all your videos. Thank you for all the great work you do.
Awesome vid lads. Since it’s TIFF win I have defo put AF in my Top 10 for BP. The reactions, the themes and the usual stats are enough to make me think it’s getting in (for now). Although I have no idea when I’m gonna get to see it. It’s not in the LFF lineup so I may have to wait for the awards screenings. Was hoping you would give your ratings on the film overall. Where do you both stand in terms of a score rating? Xx
Movies with added screenings at TIFF this year were: American Fiction, Boy and the Heron, Hit Man, Rustin, NYAD, and maybe also Next Goal Wins
Origin
A black-themed, award-winning film being underestimated by two white prognosticators for Oscars? Now I know awards season has officially begun.
I’m white, and this is very accurate
I genuinely think Giamatti might just miss. I think Cooper is also possible, but he could just have *enough* votes; it's a toss up between those two for who I think is 5th, but I also think Wright might just use GG, CC and BAFTA to leapfrog
I think the main lesson we should learn from Till is with the modern Academy if it does not have a real international release, it is not a strong contender in any category. So will this be released (and supported) throughout at least Europe and Asia?
Till had an international release.
@@pb.j.1753 UK was the only country it made over 1M in. It made just over 2M total and did not even release in Japan. I don’t think that it had a wide release (and if it did it was a huge failure).
@@outdoorcats One of us is incorrect about how many Oscar voters live in LA. With how many new voters come from other countries (I think the Academy boasted 40% of new inductees each of the past year were foreign), I’m pretty sure most of those foreigners don’t live in LA. This is only like the third or fourth year with this large of an international presence in the Academy, so we don’t know for sure, but it does seem like most “snubs” as described by American pundits and fans did not get a real international release, so I think it is a very logical theory (though of course it could prove wrong, with Rustin being a big test case; releasing equally strong in every country because it’s streaming, if Rustin fails to get any noms then the alternate theory of simple racism becomes much more likely).
@@thrawncaedusl717Please explain the three Oscar nominations for Can You Ever Forgive me that was a financial hit - nowhere. Oscar voters don’t watch films at the public theater obviously.
@@pb.j.1753 maybe not (though I’m not sure how true that is), but they certainly see the ads for movies when they release. My argument is that this is a difference that just started last year or a couple of years ago (as a result of increased foreign population of the Academy, something I think they started pushing for only like 5 years ago). I could be wrong, but right now it’s a theory that makes sense to me, and if Rustin gets a lead actor nomination over some of the more American focused openings then I will consider that strong evidence supporting the theory.
I do think as u looked at American Fiction’s critic scores, The Boy and The Heron is crushing with the critics. 100% rotten tomatoes 8.8/10 avg rating. 89 certified score on metacritic.
Combine this with the inevitable box office splash, the film should be taken into account…
Really happy about this. I was intrigued by the premise and grabbed stuff on GoldDerby right before the premiere when the buzz started. Wondering how the placements will affect best actor considering Jeffrey Wright's film just beat Paul Giamatti's.
Also wondering if Boy and the Heron will at least get nominated in one other category (probably score). Last animated movie to place in a PCA category was Flee (albeit for the documentary category, and Boy and the Heron has the added factor working against it that Japan didn't submit it)
I'm not gonna lie. When they were talking about potential snubs for Jeffrey Wright the one that instantly sprang to mind was Giamatti. Not because of this result but because the Academy has made it clear they don't really give a crap about him. Domingo has the added benefit of Color Purple potentially making noise.
Since 2009 Every winner at the TIIF gets at least one Oscar acting nomination! I think is an interesting information to know.
Also, all of them except the 2011 winner and last year's winner THE FABELMANS won at least 1 above-the-line category (above-the-line means writing, directing, acting, and picture).
let's be honest, TIFF is extremely weak this year and Venice+Cannes ate them up. American fiction might slip into a 10th spot but for now I won't give it too much thought except for maybe Best Actor
I have attended 20 TIFF screenings this year and from that sample I can tell they don’t know much about great filmmaking.
The premise of “American Fiction” sounds like Spike Lee’s 2000 film “Bamboozled.” In that film, a TV producer played by Damon Wayans gets a cartoonishly stereotypical show on the air to prove a point. He’s sarcastically protesting what he perceives as limited images of blacks in entertainment. The plot of “American Fiction” with Jeffrey Wright’s author protagonist seems to be the literary equivalent.
It beat The Holdovers because it's a better movie.
Women Talking was nominated for BP with only screenplay... American Fiction could be next.
Yes but not gonna win all Oscars
I don’t see American Fiction beating Poor Things at SAG Ensemble or WGA.
I’m also hopping on board the Jeffrey Wright Best Actor train. He’s hella overdue.
Right now my Best Picture predictions are really solid, and I’d be surprised if any of them missed at this point
1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Holdovers
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Color Purple
8. Anatomy of a Fall
9. American Fiction
10. Maestro
Zone of interest?
@@singstreetcar5881 I have it in director, but I think it will end up being too experimental in terms of narrative to really break into best picture
You are a newbie then. The Color Purple might easily miss, Past Lives can miss, I would say that it is number 10 right now and we have no idea about Anatomy of a Fall//Zone of Interest until we see the European Awards noms. Maestro and American Fiction are also a question mark. Holdovers is not a lock, especially if Rose McGowan decides to attack Payne again. Napoleon might be a huge player as well. The only locks are Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie.
@@manantial773 not rose McGowan. Lol
@@manantial773 First, I’m not saying these are my final nominations, just that each of them have strong narratives warranting their place in the 10. Secondly, agree to disagree on a few points. I think Anatomy of a Fall is already a lock after it won the Palmes D’Or and has continued to be a major part of the fall festival circuit garnering huge acclaim and building buzz. Zone of Interest I agree with, but that’s why I don’t have it in. Past Lives has definitely lost some steam since the festival season started but I think it will still be enough of a critical darling that A24 will campaign it well enough to a nom. The Color Purple is a bit of an unknown quantity but as of now I have no reason to doubt it as an Oscars package. The Holdovers could absolutely face some backlash over Payne, but only time will tell with that one. I see Maestro as being The Irishman, a Netflix movie that doesn’t have a super passionate fanbase but gets a bunch of noms. And for me American Fiction is the start of Amazon’s big return to the Oscars circuit, since they said they’re emphasizing theatrical releases more after the MGM purchase, and after winning TIFF, it’s in a really good position.
This is definitely a movie to look out for during awards season. It’s a pretty damn good contender in adapted screenplay (like around the number 4 slot), it’s Amazon mgm so they would campaign the crap out of this (especially after the TIFF win and the fact that it’s looks and sounds to be more crowd pleasing than Saltburn), and Jeffrey Wright has a pretty good chance in best actor (I wouldn’t say a lock but he is definitely in the running I would say)
What does the cat think about all this??
Honestly, very... very competitive year for Best Actor. Possibly one of the most competitive in recent times. Someone is going to get snubbed and we're all going to be shocked.
DiCaprio? Some would say Giamatti, but it’s just hard to see him missing if The Holdovers is in Best Picture (it will be)
Cooper (and Maestro as a whole) has already been on shaky ground this whole season; the only reason he’s stayed in the top 5 as long as he has is because there hasn’t been a strong number 6 top challenge him, now that there is I think he gets bounced.
I have a feeling once Maestro shows up at NYFF & AFI Fest alongside other festivals it might go to (like BFI London), there'll be enough conversation for Maestro to get back in. Maybe there isn't much talk about it right now, because it got crammed in the middle of the festival, rather than playing it near the beginning or the end of the festival.
If this is a Picture player after this, maybe I’m including Jeffrey Wright in my Best Actor Predictions. I’m keeping Murphy, Cooper, DiCaprio and Giamatti. Could switch Wright or Colman Domingo for the number 5 spot.
So, is Barry Keoghan just completely done?
@@seankoontz4235 I don’t know about completely done. But from what I’ve heard about Saltburn, it may be divisive but I’ve heard great things about his performance. That and Best Actor does seem to be competitive for now, so I moved Keoghan down from my Top 5.
Lots of big movies are skipping TIFF - Dunno but TIFF doesn't seem to have as much impact as it did not from an Oscar hype standpoint and not from sale standpoint either. TIFF has become a bit sterile and mainstream to the point that some don't want to fuck with it anymore which is a shame because it is or was The film festival to show movies from all over, smaller affairs, there are a lot of smaller movies being shown there (for sales mostly) but they tend to get overlooked for the big ones. Like last year, a Spielberg movie won, I mean a great movie don't get me wrong but for a film festival?
I’ve only read one other review, which is very positive, but I don’t know much detail about American Fiction. Your own response and what you report about people you know thinking the same as you, that the film is sometimes unfocused etc., is very interesting. No idea what to make of this one.
So if American Fiction is in for Actor and Adapted Screenplay, is Andrew Scott out for actor and AoUS out for Adapted screenplay?
OMGG Past Lives screenplay is still win-competitive. 😭😭 I’m sorry but this year I’ll have to root against any films that try to take away past lives ONLY chance of winning an Oscars.
Cat!
I could see Bradley Cooper or Leonardo Dicaprio missing in Best Actor to make room for both Domingo and Wright.
Why is next goal wins still in the conversation? Mr waiti is a 1 hit wonder.
Oscar Expert that lovely feline loves you 😽
Best Actor is shaping up to be solid this year.
Lead actor next year is gonna be a death trap. Between Murphy, Cooper, DiCaprio, Domingo, Giamatti, Wright, and Scott. I dunno how awards shows are gonna pick one.
Scott is not happening, but watch out for Phoenix.
Someone is going to get the axe, and it'll be a bad trip.
How's that Android app going?
I don’t get why Cooper wouldn’t be an 100%. I know it’s hard when you wanna squeeze six into a lineup of five, but I can’t see it being win when he has winner hype.
I don’t really think he has winner hype anymore. The reviews are all Carey love
@@guysimchony309 She’s getting equal but I do see plenty of “He should win” buzz
Because the hype coming out about Maestro is all Carey Mulligan.
Your cat is so cute and chunky.
American Fiction is going to break the trend of winning TIFF and getting nominated for BP.
Its giving green book realness
WTF? Nothing alike.
Poor Things gave me Parasite, EEAO, and Coda vibes.
In a sense where nobody was really paying attention to it at first until after it wins it’s actually a big awards player. Yeah I can see a parallel.
@@joser1853 No
@@dariussalepetru6770 It literally did. Saw it at Venice, and when I walked away got the same feeling.
Oppenheimer is going to win for me.
Giamatti out.
No! Domingo OUT
@@dariussalepetru6770they hate Giamatti
I wait ti watch (amrican fiction) to say my opnion about it
Thank you 💛♥💛
I'm being stubborn about keeping Napoleon in picture and Joaquin Phoenix in actor on Gold Derby which makes it difficult to fit in American Fiction and Jeffrey Wright...
Still so many question marks, almost any of the movies supposedly in contention can miss. Oppenheimer, KOTFM, and Poor Things are the only ones that are rock solid.
I decided to squeak in American Fiction and Jeffrey Wright over Maestro and Bradley Cooper
@@purekinema Never happend! Bradley is a lock for Actor so you should squeak Domingo
This was alright but not fantastic or hilarious. It was just, alright. I don’t understand the appeal
Like I don’t understand the appeal of May December.
I thought the movie was terrific from start to finish. The commentary on the limited range of stories that are acceptable from certain populations was very timely
This movie was not great. Wright is very unlikable, the humor making fun of white people showed a double standard. If white people made a movie making fun of black people, it would be offensive and considered trash, not award winning. The movie was kind of funny at other times though. Mixed feelings on this one.
I don’t think the movie was making fun of white people as a whole…it called out the very real phenomenon of a specific type of white person who only wants to see black trauma and poverty movies and books and nothing else
@@bryanalstoncoxingyeah, and even if the blanket statement of “they’re making fun of white people” is true, if white people act in a way that makes them easy to be made fun of, then by all means, it’s fair game
I'll be skipping this one.
I cannot haha