If you math it out, planting 10k trees everyday for a whole year you get 7.3 mil back. If you plant 30k trees everyday for a year and only get the profit 30% of the time, you only make 6.57 mil in a year. Statistically 10k trees make more profit over time.
10k bell bags are mathematically the best investment. Over 10 times, assuming you get the exact 70-30 RNG, 10k bells gets you a profit of 200k, 30k bells gets you 180k profit, and 99k bells gets you 111k profit. But I get that some people like to roll the dice.
I typically put in 30K per tree. If you get the 30%, boom, free 90K, but if you don’t you still get 30K back to plant and make no gain but also no loss
@Elli Senfsaat someone in the comments did the math on it and supposedly 10,000 is the golden number; even if you get lucky on your gambles, the money you’ll make back from planting 10k each day for a year is still higher
@@garbagemunki4365 It depends on how many times you do this. The more frequently you do this, the more statistical probability will play out. Statistical probability says 200k profit on 10 10k trees, 180k profit on 10 30k trees. Obviously as with any gamble if you play less, and win big early, you can profit more with larger up front.
Worst .. ive been burying the same 1k bag since the beginning and thought they would always grow more and my kids stole em all the time before i log in. Lol
True, I made a video about the math behind it all. In ten days you'll end up with 200k profit if you plant 10k each day. If you plant 99k each day, you'll end up with only 11k profit. These are averages but they are reliable in the long run.
Statistically speaking, 10K is the best option. But for a game that's about relaxing and having fun, I'd actually want the 30K, well, at least late game when money doesn't really matter much anymore. Because it's more fun and surprising when you check your money tree and see you actually got the 30% chance that day. I'm not saying either way is wrong, but when money doesn't really matter much anymore, doing the no risk gambling option is better for entertainment.
30k is not the best option because it's X3 only 30% of the time… but 1/3 of the time which means you have an estimate return of 18k per tree and this is less than 20k per tree if you put 10k in the shiny hole on the ground. Just saying
There's no point looking for the 'optimal return per tree'. That's a long term strategy. Short term, if you bury 30k you won't lose anything, but you stand to make 60k. Win/win.
@gareth stewart Probability is unintuitive, but this shouldn't really be that confusing. You can't cheat probability. 30k: 70% * profit margin of 0 + 30% * profit margin of 60k = an expected value of 18k per money tree. 10k: 100% * profit margin of 20k = an expected value of 20k per money tree, and it happens to be completely reliable.
You probably hear this a ton, but I love how you structure your videos and are transparent enough to give timestamps in the beginning. You make the viewing experience for your audience easy and fun! Keep up the awesome videos :)
I ran a 100 trials of this (with a program), 10 times with 10k, 10 times with 30k. 7 of the samples ended with 10k netting more profit. 3 of the samples ended with 30k netting more profit. So 10k is better more often.
Thank you so much! Just got my Nintendo Switch today for my birthday and one of the controller’s buttons wasn’t working. I just started up Animal Crossing and I couldn’t save and quit. But then you reminded me that there’s auto save. We’re going to phone the shop but thanks for making my day! 😊
I'm too dumb, so when there was the talk about the math of returns and stuff, I just said; "screw it", and always did 10k, one of those rare moments in life where a simple mind pays off lmao
Doesn't pay off to do 10k - do 30k. You'll never lose any bells, and you stand to make 60k. 70% chance you'll get 3x 10k bells, so that's your 30k back, or 30% chance of getting 3x 30k bells. Win/win.
I’ve been trying to get my rocks to spawn into a rock garden and my golden spots all disappeared. The funny thing is my rocks still manage to find ways to escape because I haven’t plugged all the holes but the golden spots don’t appear so I think things like flowers, pavement and weeds might stop the golden spots but don’t bother the rocks. The way I figure it: 10k gets me 20k profit 100% of the time. 15k gets me 15k profit 70% of the time and 30k profit 30% of the time. 20k gets me 10k profit 70% of the time and 40k profit 30% of the time. 30k breaks even 70% of the time and 3x profit 30% of the time. Anything greater than 30k loses money most of the time. I think the best outcome is probably between 10k and 30k since this will always yield more bells than you put in but have a chance of yielding a lot more bells. Edit: Actually mathematically 10k gives you the best outcome at a solid 20k per day.
Also preparing a rock garden here, yesterday a rock spawned outside of the garden where I forgot to put something on the ground, but the glowing thing was in the rock garden x') I'm assuming that it needs a 3x3 area in order to appear (just like rocks) as it doesn't spawn elsewhere on the island due to floor filling :p
Wily G. From what I’ve seen the Golden Spot needs a 3x3 area of absolutely bare grass to spawn. The rocks require a 3x3 area where the center square is bare grass and the surrounding squares can be covered with weeds, flowers or pavement. So my rock garden has the bare grass rock spots surrounded by pavement (the tutorial I’m following indicated this would be OK) and rocks have spawned into the grass at the center of the paved squares but the golden spot hasn’t.
The 30k risk is only good of you're already rich. I took his advice and did 30k bells. The first three days I got 180k profit. Exciting! But the next week I got absolutely NO profit. I couldn't build bridges or move homes because all the money was drained into the trees. It paused construction for a week. I spent 3 hours diving and fishing to pay off the bridge and house upgrade I got. I saw people saying 10k is better so I did that. Guaranteed 200k in 10 days. Now I have enough enough to build again.
Honestly I prefer burying 10k and getting 20k profit because it’s more reliable and money trees are just a side hustle compared to the ever growing turnip stock market. Also I think there’s a glitch where you sometimes it won’t let bury bells in the gold spots, it happened to me a couple of times but I found that you could make an alternative hole bury the bells and dig them out to then be able to bury them in the gold spot. I think that last bit was part of that person’s question at the end.
The reason it wasn't letting you bury the bells is probably because you weren't holding your shovel, I've known a few other people with that issue 😅It's not that digging another hole "fixed" the glitch, its just that it put your shovel back in your hand.
Before the first patch update for the duplication glitch, when I planted 99k, I got 99k x3 100% of the time. The reason I say this is because I time traveled a lot those first few days and planted that much every “day” and after they were grown, every single one gave me 99k. If the 70/30 was in place at that time, I was extremely lucky to get the 30% 14 times in a row (I time traveled 14 days).
In my case I choose 10k bells every single time. Simply because if probabilities are strictly respected, you'll get more bells that way. Burying 10k bells leads to guaranteed 20k earned. However for the 30k option, you have only 30% of chance to get 60k, which statistically leads to 18k per tree (less profitable ^^).
I saw a TikTok of someone going to someone else's town, and there were gold nugget trees. When I googled something like "gold nugget trees", I didn't get anything. It doesn't make sense in context, but if the following video about planting item trees that aren't bell bags, I'll be very interested. The star fragment trees already intrigue me.
I believe it could be modefied money trees. Since money bag values are most likely metadata (extra data attached) for the item, the money tree would likely have to store the item data as well as the metadata. Because of this, you could possibly attach other items to to the money tree by replacing the item by hacking. (I'm just guessing using my limited AP Computer Science knowledge I absorbed while sleeping)
This is an easy problem to solve using EMV. Your EMV = (21,000 + 0.9x) - x => This is 0.3 * 30,000 + 0.3 * 3x - X, simplified further to: EMV = 21,000 - 0.1x. This is a simple linear function, it's obvious that the optimal value to plant is 10,000 (giving an EMV of 20,000). Lets try putting 10,001 into this formula, we get: 19999.9 (0.1 less than the optimal value of 20,000). If we put in 100,000 we get 11,000 which is still a net gain, but 9,000 less than the optimal value.
30k will give you an avg profit of 18k per tree, and only if the 70/30 split holds true. so 10k is clearly the more profitible option as it gets 20k guaranteed
Expected profit: 0.7 * 30000 + 0.3 * 30000 - 10000 = 20000 0.7 * 30000 + 0.3 * 90000 - 30000 = 18000 0.7 * 30000 + 0.3 * 297000 - 99000 = 11100 10k is statistically the best option, but if you want to play a game of chance, you're free to do whatever you like.
@@Oliviaplayspokemon I think your right, yes in the thinking the others sound better, but if you assume every 4 harvests you get your lucky odds (yes that's only 25% but every 3 days means 33% so I think assuming every 4 days allows for the variance of going a while without the lucky pull) then you figure out which gives the most money after a full year. So about 91/365 days you get your full amount, if I'm thinking right
Here's the math for those who want to see it. This is the average net profit per day you can expect for amounts over 10K: Average net profit = 0.7(30000-x)+0.3(2x) where x is the amount you put in. This works out to: Average net profit = 21000-0.1x. It's a linear graph with a negative coefficient on x, which means that the more you bury, the less you can expect in return. Of course, there is luck involved, so of course you can gamble. But if you believe what Obi-wan says, just put in 10K.
The coolest thing about your videos is that you actually show and prove what you're talking about and not just talk about it as if it's something you just heard somewhere. THUMBS UP EARNED!
Equation for the average profit, where x is the amount buried, assuming x is greater than or equal to 10k+: 30%*3*x + 70%*3*10k - x = avg profit. This simplifies down to 21k - 0.1x = avg profit. As you can see, the coefficient of x is NEGATIVE. That means the lower x is, the higher the profit, and since the lowest possible x for that equation to apply is 10k, the best x is 10k. We input it into the equation and get 20k.
Doing a 10k bag every time is better in the long run than 30k because The profit you get is 20k 100 percent of the time = 20k average profit If you plant 30k You get 60k profit 30 percent of the time which is 60k * 0.30 = 18k is your average profit. It's not a big difference but over time 10k will net you more bells. It's also less button clicks to organise money in your inventory so that's another thing going for planting 10k bells
@@tylerbesel2490 Just try go one day back, get a other Money Tree, Money Rock and go to the ATM for daily bonus. Save and switch back to the current day ... then you can "replay" the current day.
I’ve grown 3 weeks worth of money trees in a day lol from time skipping ... also time skipped to change the able sisters clothing items . nook items remain the same for its specific day so if you travel forward and purchase them go back to your time when that day arrives the items you bought will say sold .
You get more profit over time doing 10k. A 30% chance of 60k is the equivalent of 18k per day and 18k per day is less than the 20k per day by planting 10k
Abdallah doing us dirty by teasing us with those star fragment trees. But in all seriousness, great video. I used to be subscribed to the idea of patterns for the money trees, but after the official guide came out, I saw that my get rich quick scheme had gone up in smoke. As for the debate of whether to plant 10k or 99k, I'm on the 10k side. If I want to gamble, I just give my life savings to Daisy Mae every week and pray to the turnip gods for a good harvest.
I have simulated this 10,000 times in a c++ program I wrote. Burying 30k earns less than burying 10k almost every time over the course of a year. In a year burying 10k always gives 7.3 mil in profits whereas burying 30k only yields 6.6 mil on average after subtracting the investment from the player across all 10,000 players. Fact is unless the percentages are drastically off by Nintendo, 10k is safer and also almost always earns more
Statistically the 10k is the way to go. 10 days at 10k gives you a guaranteed 200k bells. 10 days at 30k will average 180k profit. So if the stats in this video are right, that seems to be the way to go. But I play pretty conservatively.
you are pretty much right. But, you could have a money tree pattern that you get 99k every 3 days or so on. you have to find out which days of money trees are more fertile. so realisticly, you might have a pattern of two days then three days. you just have to test it for a few weeks to find your money tree pattern
One glowing spot per day per user. Every user on the island gets its own money spot. 8 x 30K is nearly a quarter million every day, but's a fairly grindy means of getting there. Plus you need to have all those houses, (or tents, if you're lazy about it.)
If you're looking at a short window of time like 10 days, then yes you likely will profit more from a 99k tree. BUT if you calculate your odds over longer periods of time like say a year, you profit the most from 10k trees over that time, and will actually have a net loss by planting 99k trees. This is assuming you get an exact 70/30 split over this period.
I would correct the way you said this. "If you're looking at a short window...then you POSSIBLY will profit more..." the most likely is that you hit the odds and get 3 trees, in which case you have lost around 9K compared to what you might have gotten. You might get lucky and hit 4 trees, but you could just as easily get unlucky and only hit 2, in which case you have netted negative bells. I could figure the exact odds of each outcome, but it's not really worth it since it is clearly just a big risk.
No your math is wrong. The optimal value to plant for any period of time is 10K. However even if you plant 100k, your EMV is 11K, which is still a net profit of 10% over time. It's just obviously much less than the optimal 200% profit of doing 10K every time.
With a 15k bell investment instead of the 10k one, your exact income could be a bit shaky, but if the chances are exact, it’s a profit of 195k from ten trees. If your luck is good, it can jump to 210k or higher but if it is complete trash, it could drop to at the very least 150k. If you want to take the gamble but still have a good income, doing 15k
Being x the number of bells you plant (10000 ≤ x ≤ 99000), the formula for the average profit of 1 tree is f(x) = 0.3*3x + 0.7*30000 - x which SIMPLIFIED is f(x) = -0.1x + 21000. At the end of the year you will have gotten the maximum profit by planting 10000 bells a day.
So let's say we planted ten trees. 10K- Total investment: 100,000 (10k x 10 trees) Return: 300,000 (10 trees with 30k per tree) Profit: 200,000 Bells (300,000-100,000) 30K- Total Investment: 300,000 (30k x 10 trees) Expected Return: 480,000 (7 trees return 30k gives 210,000 bells, plus 3 trees return 90k= 270,000 bells) Expected Profit: 180,000 Bells (480,000-300,000) 99K- Total Investment: 990,000 Expected Return: 1,101,000 (7 trees return 30k gives 210,000 bells, plus 3 trees return 297,000 gives 891,000) Expected Profit: 111,000 (1,101,000-990,000) 10k is clearly the way to go. While 30k *feels* like it's a wash when you just get your 30k investment back, the truth is by taking that strategy you are hurting yourself in the long run.
if you run the numbers, the best way is to burry 10k. I've done the maths for, let's say, you plant money trees for 100 days with the 70/30 odds. With the 10k you get 2 millions profit after 100 days. With the 30k you get about 1.8 millions profits (roughly, depending on your luck. You can get a little more or a little less). And the 99k is the worst, with 1.11 million profits (again, more or less depending on your luck with the 70/30 odds). Like they said, slow and steady wins the race.
As other people already correctly stated: 10k is statistically the best option. With the 70/30 chances 99k trees will yield 111k over 10 trees, 30k trees will yield 180k over 10 trees and 10k trees will yield 200k profit over 10 trees.
Bro, I've been keeping track of money trees for a month to see if there was a pattern, so thanks for this video so I can stop doing that lol. Looking back at my odds from this month also, I'm super unlucky with a big money rate of 20%
10k gang right here! Realistically, you'd want your profits to be safe and steady. Why gamble for a 30% chance, when you can get 20k per day. That's 140k per week, 560k per month, and about 6.7 million bells a year. Besides, by putting only 10k, you have more bells on your pocket.
I'm wondering how the luck for these trees works. The percentage for a 99K bell tree is 30%. I was wondering: is that 3:10, 30:100, or even 300:1000 odds? They're all equivalent.
After seeing this my main account will be burying 30k from now on. My 5 other accounts will still only do 10k. This is because my extra accounts only do the daily stuff, so they hardly make extra money besides their money rock. Especially since their money trees are usually collected by my main account. The fact 4 of them currently have all 3 ground floor spare rooms unlocked is already surprising.
Yes, I plant $11,000 every time and track for 2 weeks (no time travel! It mess up the pattern) then I see my pattern was 2 days $10,000 then 1 day $11,000 then 1 day $10,000 and then $11,000. So according to the pattern, plant $99,000 on the $11,000 day will net u $99,000
No that was a BS click bate lie to get views. Data mine has shown it was all RNG. No pattern no way to get lucky. You are getting a pattern off pure luck if you have one. The code of the game only has data for the odds of 30% a tree to grow over 10,000. This lie about patterns needs to go away as it has tricked people like me into wasting my time until i learned it was meaningless.
10k is best if % proc exact. 30% is less than 1/3 (33.333333~%) Most argued that 3.333333~% is very small and it's negligible. At best that makes 10k and 30k about the same, you make 60k every 3 days. Only difference is that you won't blame luck for not making $60k by the 3rd day if you do 10K every time. Guaranteed gain in the beginning of the game is crucial, once you saved up a bit it's all turnips afterwards.
10k or 30k is the best way to make a profit however if you just started playing the game you can bury a 100 bell money bag and get 3x 1000 bells in return a profit of 2900 bells then on the next day plant a 3k bell tree and so on until you reach 10k and then you never run out of bells unless you go higher than 30k
Since this breaks down 70/30, then if we plant 10 trees, we expect to hit 3 "big" and 7 "small". So if we bury 10K each time, we get a net profit of 20K every day for a total of 200K profit. If we bury 30K each time, we get break even 7 times and get 60K three times for a net profit of 180K. That's worse than just buring 10K each time. I think the problem is the "you break even"...yes 70% of the time you break even, but that isn't taking opportunity cost into consideration. You broke even, but you could have made 20K, so relative to what you could have made, you are down 20K and the 3 times you hit 60K isn't enough to make up for that. And this gets worse the more you bury. if you bury 99K, then 3 times you make 198K (594 total), but 7 times you lose 69K (483 total), so in every 10 days, you net an average profit of 111K bells.
I found out burying 99k bags the hard way...I did it twice thinking I'm going to pay off my loan faster by doing it and just got 10k back. I was pissed lol Growing star fragments of trees!!!???? how?!?? I can't wait for that video..I have to know how you did it.
I thought for weeks I had a lucky day for getting over 10k bells but then one week it failed me. Now I just do 10K every day. Currently I have 4 trees right in front of my house each planted a day before each other.
I hate how there are so many conflicting videos on RUclips. Another video I watched said planting more than 10,000 will never get u more than 3 $10,000 bell bags. It also said once u grow a money tree, that's it. Chop it down & move on. There's another video that said it depends what day u plant it & how fertile your island is on that day. For what it's worth, I've only planted 1,000 & 10,000. Every time it's been the same. The 1000 gets me 3x 3000 & the 10,000 gets me 3x 30,000. I've been playing a little over a month with one money tree per day. Figuring that's about 30 trees with, we'll say ½ 1000 & ½ 10,000, that's 15 each with 100% of the time getting 3x what I put in.
Profit: 10k - 7.3 million per year guaranteed 30k - 7.32 million profit average per year (60k 1/3 of the time, 0 2/3rds of the time so 60k x 122days) 99k - -16.767 million + 24.156 million = 7.389 million on average Basically, there's literally no reason to bury more than 10k and you can see that just by the calculations I did as just about no matter the bells over 10k you put in, you'll get around a 7.3 million bells per year profit and a few days off that 70/30 split and if it breaks one way or another on that can net you a few more bells or a few fewer bells, but on average, you're not going to beat the 10k drop by an amount that's worth putting in more than 10k.
30k isn't best optimisation its good chances but 10k is guaranteed more money over the longer period of time. If you do the maths 30k you get 60k profit 1 in just over 3 times (30%) whereas the 10k gives 20k every day no matter what
From a stats perspective: Planting 10K - average expected outcome is 20K (you will always get this outcome) Planting 30K - average expected outcome is 18K (30% of the time you make a profit of 60K, the rest of the time you break even) Planting 99K - average expected outcome is 11.1K (30% of the time you make a profit of 198K, but the rest of the time you are losing 69K)
I heard a rumor that if Isabelle says it's her lucky day during daily announcements, you're more likely to get back 99k x3 if you plant it. True/false?
I like to hamster all my money trees in my pocket after putting 10,000 bells in side the glowing hole to make them. Waiting a whole week to have 5 trees in my pocket then plant all five in the same area watch them grow, to then shake them all at the same time. I know I'm weird but it's fun.
assuming you get one money tree every day, after 10 days you would see a 200k bell profit if you buried the 10k bag. after that same 10 days, 30k would net you a 180k profit, so the 10k bag is the better investment long term
I SWEAR TO GOD there are two days a week that will 100% give you back whatever amount you plant. It’s really easy to test to find which days work in your town. Plant 11,000 bells in every glowing hole for one week. I’ve been doing this for weeks and it never fails. Please try it Abdullah!
I didn’t even know that burying 99K bells doesn’t always become 99K... Everytime I buried the bells it always gave me my 99K so I never knew that this was possible
I may be doing my math wrong here but this is how I figure it. So you have one money tree pre day if you plant 10k in each of those for 7 days at the end of that week (not allotting for growing time here) you would have a profit of 140,000 bells. If we take the 30k route and you do that for 7 days you'd only need 3 of those money trees to give you 30k x3 to gain a profit of 180,000k. You're not guaranteed that 3 will be x3 but those aren't bad odds for profit especially if you get more then 3 60k money trees. Theres not really a lot of risk in it either since you either break even or profit. I'll be doing 30k from not on.
10,000 is the optimal solution. Let B represent the number of bells you bury. Then, your profit minus expense (which you want to maximize) is represented by the following formula: 3(B)(0.3) + 30,000(0.7) - B = -0.1B + 21,000 Obviously, now, the higher your B is, the lower this number gets. Therefore, putting in the minimum number of bells possible to use this formula (10,000) is the optimal solution.
Statistically, 10k is the only right option *if you play regularly.* Risk VS Reward - but even the reward is lower over time for anything >10k. 10k plant: 20k per day, or 60k every 3 days E=20k/day 30k plant: 30% _chances_ of 60k per day E=0.3*60=18k/day 99k plant: 30% chances of 198k per day, 70% chances of 69k loss per day E=0.3*198-0.7*69=11.1k/day The more you play, the more your results get closer to the real statistics. You don't get "luckier" the more time passes, you just get closer to the real statistics. There is no reward for higher risk here.
If it’s a perfect world then the 10k bell bag would be the best. If you plant 30k 10 times and it’s a perfect world then 7 of the time you have a profit of 0 but the other 3 time you will make 180k bells. If you plant the best way which is the 10k bells every time then you would make 20k every day profiting 200k every 10 days
I always do 10k trees no matter what. I skipped time in my game while I had a full grown money tree. I finally shook the tree maybe like 5 months later and I got 99k money tree. I was confused and that’s what brought me to this channel. Has this happened to anyone?
So you make 7.3 million bells per year profit if you bury 10k If the randomization gave you exactly 30% you make 6.57 million bells if you bury 30k here's the math: 20,000 * 365 = 7,300,000 60,000 * (365 * .3) = 6,570,000 There is NO reason to plant more than 10k bells. You will not make more money over time.
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If you math it out, planting 10k trees everyday for a whole year you get 7.3 mil back. If you plant 30k trees everyday for a year and only get the profit 30% of the time, you only make 6.57 mil in a year. Statistically 10k trees make more profit over time.
yep - 10k = steady income
30k = a "gamble" with the risk of losing time, not money
99k = a gamble with risk of both losing time AND losing money
Exactly. There’s no subjectivity about it - the math is there. Thanks for posting this before I wrote out the same comment lol.
Yes! Someone who knows basic statistics!
I made a video on this a while back after I researched it. 10k everyday for that win!
Thanks for breaking it down for everyone using math!
10k bell bags are mathematically the best investment. Over 10 times, assuming you get the exact 70-30 RNG, 10k bells gets you a profit of 200k, 30k bells gets you 180k profit, and 99k bells gets you 111k profit. But I get that some people like to roll the dice.
I typically put in 30K per tree. If you get the 30%, boom, free 90K, but if you don’t you still get 30K back to plant and make no gain but also no loss
I think 15k is the best option cause it’s always profit if you think about it
Maximum Violet I was going to put this but looks like you beat me to it😅
@@myfriendkirby I tried this but I kept getting 10k ☹️
Was just thinking this lmao you don't lose money but you're losing profit putting down 30k
Me who felt stupid for only ever burying 10k each time: 😔
Me after realizing that 10k is the optimal choice: 😊
It's good, but just sooo boring. Where's the gambling in this method? v.v
Still, I always ever bury 10k. Better safe than sorry
@Elli Senfsaat someone in the comments did the math on it and supposedly 10,000 is the golden number; even if you get lucky on your gambles, the money you’ll make back from planting 10k each day for a year is still higher
30k is the 'magic' number. Even if you don't 'win', you still get your original 30k back. Win/win.
@@garbagemunki4365 It depends on how many times you do this. The more frequently you do this, the more statistical probability will play out. Statistical probability says 200k profit on 10 10k trees, 180k profit on 10 30k trees. Obviously as with any gamble if you play less, and win big early, you can profit more with larger up front.
Worst .. ive been burying the same 1k bag since the beginning and thought they would always grow more and my kids stole em all the time before i log in. Lol
Math says do 10ks you get more in the long run
True, I made a video about the math behind it all. In ten days you'll end up with 200k profit if you plant 10k each day. If you plant 99k each day, you'll end up with only 11k profit. These are averages but they are reliable in the long run.
If you form an equation with it you end up with a straight line with a negative gradient so yeah the less you plant the higher your profit
This is what I do
Vesmir nge cutting them down does nothing to your profit. I’m not understanding your logic
Yes. 10k will earn more most of the time. Burying 30k will yield about 3/4 a mill less than burying 10k would have over a year on average.
Imagine if they added a blue glowing spot that only comes once a month but you bury 1-5 NMTs to get 3x the amount you buried.
That would be a game changer but i doubt that would happen because people will just time travel.
What if they added a skin coloured glowing spot and you push your own head in it :o
@@quopi7183 Maybe if people time travel then they won’t get the blue spot next month?
Thats impossible because they made nmts for going mystery island and not a currency. Community traited nmts like a currency.
what if they added a glory hole on the ground :O
I laugh at “small young money tree” every single time cause it sounds like a rapper’s name
should have been called "lil" young money tree
Lil young geezy money tree
The split in the community : people who can do math and go for 10k, and the others
😆 I've gotta address it!
AbdallahSmash026 If the 10,001+ percentage ratio was 33.333:66.666 then I would choose the 30,000 route 😉
Statistically speaking, 10K is the best option. But for a game that's about relaxing and having fun, I'd actually want the 30K, well, at least late game when money doesn't really matter much anymore. Because it's more fun and surprising when you check your money tree and see you actually got the 30% chance that day.
I'm not saying either way is wrong, but when money doesn't really matter much anymore, doing the no risk gambling option is better for entertainment.
Right, basically over 10 days, if I planted 10k every day, i'd net 200k vs if i planted 30k every day, i'd only net 180k
Everyone: Money doesn't grow on trees.
Me who plays animal crossing all day: Well yes, but actually no.
30k is not the best option because it's X3 only 30% of the time… but 1/3 of the time which means you have an estimate return of 18k per tree and this is less than 20k per tree if you put 10k in the shiny hole on the ground. Just saying
Yep, the EMV of 30k is 18K, 2K less than the optimal burial (lol) value of 10k which gives an EMV of 20K.
There's no point looking for the 'optimal return per tree'. That's a long term strategy. Short term, if you bury 30k you won't lose anything, but you stand to make 60k. Win/win.
@@garbagemunki4365 You lose the use of those Bells for four days.
No, it is not "subjective," and it also isn't "science." 10,000 Bells is the mathematically optimal amount to bury, period.
K
did 5th grade teach you that?🙄Ooh,good for you
Wrong, 30k is. Even if you don't get a profit, you get your 30k back. Win/win.
@@garbagemunki4365 Do the math. Out of ten plantings, your profit is 200K for 10K planted, and 180K for 30K planted.
@gareth stewart Probability is unintuitive, but this shouldn't really be that confusing. You can't cheat probability.
30k: 70% * profit margin of 0 + 30% * profit margin of 60k = an expected value of 18k per money tree.
10k: 100% * profit margin of 20k = an expected value of 20k per money tree, and it happens to be completely reliable.
You probably hear this a ton, but I love how you structure your videos and are transparent enough to give timestamps in the beginning. You make the viewing experience for your audience easy and fun! Keep up the awesome videos :)
I ran a 100 trials of this (with a program), 10 times with 10k, 10 times with 30k. 7 of the samples ended with 10k netting more profit. 3 of the samples ended with 30k netting more profit. So 10k is better more often.
Damn, I feel like I wasted so much time tracking for fertile days 😂 now I see why my results were inconsistent
Thank you so much!
Just got my Nintendo Switch today for my birthday and one of the controller’s buttons wasn’t working.
I just started up Animal Crossing and I couldn’t save and quit. But then you reminded me that there’s auto save.
We’re going to phone the shop but thanks for making my day! 😊
I need to know about these Star Fragment Trees :O 💫
@Wolf 1800 not when they are hacks and break your game
They're hacks.
I had a weird dream about gold nugget trees haha I was so excited in my sleep lmao
@@Dracattack that's what I just said don't even buy them from the black market not even worth it unless you wanna risk having your game crash
@@cinnamonsparrowdesigns don't even try it unless you want to break your game
I do 10k every time.
Same
Same. Any other way is going to waste your bells
Thats the best option for profit the worst option is 9k
That's mathematically the correct answer.
Why not 99k
I'm too dumb, so when there was the talk about the math of returns and stuff, I just said; "screw it", and always did 10k, one of those rare moments in life where a simple mind pays off lmao
Doesn't pay off to do 10k - do 30k. You'll never lose any bells, and you stand to make 60k. 70% chance you'll get 3x 10k bells, so that's your 30k back, or 30% chance of getting 3x 30k bells. Win/win.
I’ve been trying to get my rocks to spawn into a rock garden and my golden spots all disappeared. The funny thing is my rocks still manage to find ways to escape because I haven’t plugged all the holes but the golden spots don’t appear so I think things like flowers, pavement and weeds might stop the golden spots but don’t bother the rocks.
The way I figure it:
10k gets me 20k profit 100% of the time.
15k gets me 15k profit 70% of the time and 30k profit 30% of the time.
20k gets me 10k profit 70% of the time and 40k profit 30% of the time.
30k breaks even 70% of the time and 3x profit 30% of the time.
Anything greater than 30k loses money most of the time.
I think the best outcome is probably between 10k and 30k since this will always yield more bells than you put in but have a chance of yielding a lot more bells.
Edit: Actually mathematically 10k gives you the best outcome at a solid 20k per day.
Also preparing a rock garden here, yesterday a rock spawned outside of the garden where I forgot to put something on the ground, but the glowing thing was in the rock garden x')
I'm assuming that it needs a 3x3 area in order to appear (just like rocks) as it doesn't spawn elsewhere on the island due to floor filling :p
Wily G. From what I’ve seen the Golden Spot needs a 3x3 area of absolutely bare grass to spawn. The rocks require a 3x3 area where the center square is bare grass and the surrounding squares can be covered with weeds, flowers or pavement. So my rock garden has the bare grass rock spots surrounded by pavement (the tutorial I’m following indicated this would be OK) and rocks have spawned into the grass at the center of the paved squares but the golden spot hasn’t.
You’ve got Redd visiting your island, even more rare than a 99K bell tree.
It happens every 2 weeks (at least).
@@IsomerMashups I've had him once since the update that's bullshit
The 30k risk is only good of you're already rich.
I took his advice and did 30k bells. The first three days I got 180k profit. Exciting! But the next week I got absolutely NO profit. I couldn't build bridges or move homes because all the money was drained into the trees. It paused construction for a week. I spent 3 hours diving and fishing to pay off the bridge and house upgrade I got.
I saw people saying 10k is better so I did that. Guaranteed 200k in 10 days. Now I have enough enough to build again.
Honestly I prefer burying 10k and getting 20k profit because it’s more reliable and money trees are just a side hustle compared to the ever growing turnip stock market. Also I think there’s a glitch where you sometimes it won’t let bury bells in the gold spots, it happened to me a couple of times but I found that you could make an alternative hole bury the bells and dig them out to then be able to bury them in the gold spot. I think that last bit was part of that person’s question at the end.
The reason it wasn't letting you bury the bells is probably because you weren't holding your shovel, I've known a few other people with that issue 😅It's not that digging another hole "fixed" the glitch, its just that it put your shovel back in your hand.
Before the first patch update for the duplication glitch, when I planted 99k, I got 99k x3 100% of the time. The reason I say this is because I time traveled a lot those first few days and planted that much every “day” and after they were grown, every single one gave me 99k. If the 70/30 was in place at that time, I was extremely lucky to get the 30% 14 times in a row (I time traveled 14 days).
I love how you cover content for time travellers (: thanks for your videos!
In my case I choose 10k bells every single time. Simply because if probabilities are strictly respected, you'll get more bells that way.
Burying 10k bells leads to guaranteed 20k earned.
However for the 30k option, you have only 30% of chance to get 60k, which statistically leads to 18k per tree (less profitable ^^).
8:23 who else was just staring at the present
Just to get the number 30k in bells is so exhausting
Just do a 10k bell bag for convenience
This! 😆
I accidentally planted 99k (i needed it to pay of my house) 4 days later it became a 99k money tree.
I saw a TikTok of someone going to someone else's town, and there were gold nugget trees. When I googled something like "gold nugget trees", I didn't get anything. It doesn't make sense in context, but if the following video about planting item trees that aren't bell bags, I'll be very interested. The star fragment trees already intrigue me.
I believe it could be modefied money trees. Since money bag values are most likely metadata (extra data attached) for the item, the money tree would likely have to store the item data as well as the metadata. Because of this, you could possibly attach other items to to the money tree by replacing the item by hacking. (I'm just guessing using my limited AP Computer Science knowledge I absorbed while sleeping)
@@ShiyugaYomei interesting stuff, thanks!
After a 3 weeks of playing I have yet to see a single meteor shower yet Abdallah has an entire orchard of star trees 😂
Star trees aren’t a proper part of the game, you change the code of money trees
Ikr, I've seen one meteor shower and I've been playing since it was released😅
You need to wish
This is an easy problem to solve using EMV. Your EMV = (21,000 + 0.9x) - x => This is 0.3 * 30,000 + 0.3 * 3x - X, simplified further to: EMV = 21,000 - 0.1x. This is a simple linear function, it's obvious that the optimal value to plant is 10,000 (giving an EMV of 20,000). Lets try putting 10,001 into this formula, we get: 19999.9 (0.1 less than the optimal value of 20,000). If we put in 100,000 we get 11,000 which is still a net gain, but 9,000 less than the optimal value.
I hope you're having a great day! :D
When he said money trees I heard Mona-Lisa saying MONEY PLEASE 🤣
Money pweez
She’s the wOOOOOOrrrssstttt
Lol!!
many of you need to learn how to calculate expected value
I know, right? I'm honestly shocked.
30k will give you an avg profit of 18k per tree, and only if the 70/30 split holds true. so 10k is clearly the more profitible option as it gets 20k guaranteed
Expected profit:
0.7 * 30000 + 0.3 * 30000 - 10000 = 20000
0.7 * 30000 + 0.3 * 90000 - 30000 = 18000
0.7 * 30000 + 0.3 * 297000 - 99000 = 11100
10k is statistically the best option, but if you want to play a game of chance, you're free to do whatever you like.
13:48 Well that got me fired up, I certainly didn't expect to be featured ┗|｀O′|┛
I’d say the best option is 15k bells in the glowing spot. You make a net gain of either 15k or 30k and there’s no loss
Stubz702 Actually, it would probably be 10k. Guaranteed 30k every time.
@@Oliviaplayspokemon I think your right, yes in the thinking the others sound better, but if you assume every 4 harvests you get your lucky odds (yes that's only 25% but every 3 days means 33% so I think assuming every 4 days allows for the variance of going a while without the lucky pull) then you figure out which gives the most money after a full year. So about 91/365 days you get your full amount, if I'm thinking right
No the best option is 10K. The EMV of a 15K burial is 19500.0 which is 500 less than the optimal 20K EMV of burying 10K. EMV = 21,000 - 0.1x.
Here's the math for those who want to see it. This is the average net profit per day you can expect for amounts over 10K:
Average net profit = 0.7(30000-x)+0.3(2x)
where x is the amount you put in.
This works out to:
Average net profit = 21000-0.1x.
It's a linear graph with a negative coefficient on x, which means that the more you bury, the less you can expect in return.
Of course, there is luck involved, so of course you can gamble. But if you believe what Obi-wan says, just put in 10K.
The coolest thing about your videos is that you actually show and prove what you're talking about and not just talk about it as if it's something you just heard somewhere. THUMBS UP EARNED!
Equation for the average profit, where x is the amount buried, assuming x is greater than or equal to 10k+: 30%*3*x + 70%*3*10k - x = avg profit. This simplifies down to 21k - 0.1x = avg profit. As you can see, the coefficient of x is NEGATIVE. That means the lower x is, the higher the profit, and since the lowest possible x for that equation to apply is 10k, the best x is 10k. We input it into the equation and get 20k.
Doing a 10k bag every time is better in the long run than 30k because
The profit you get is
20k 100 percent of the time = 20k average profit
If you plant 30k
You get 60k profit 30 percent of the time which is
60k * 0.30 = 18k is your average profit.
It's not a big difference but over time 10k will net you more bells. It's also less button clicks to organise money in your inventory so that's another thing going for planting 10k bells
So I’ve done some time traveling and if I go to the same day twice there is a new money tree every time... so I have a TON of money trees right now!
Kristin Cummings do you mean if you skip ahead and then back? I wanna try haha
@@tylerbesel2490 if youre time travelling, go day by day so you can still get your money tree glowy hole and ya 300 nook miles
@@tylerbesel2490 Just try go one day back, get a other Money Tree, Money Rock and go to the ATM for daily bonus. Save and switch back to the current day ... then you can "replay" the current day.
I’ve grown 3 weeks worth of money trees in a day lol from time skipping ... also time skipped to change the able sisters clothing items . nook items remain the same for its specific day so if you travel forward and purchase them go back to your time when that day arrives the items you bought will say sold .
Bianca Fisher lol idk why I thought “money tree glowy hole” was so funny 😅 great advice tho!
You get more profit over time doing 10k. A 30% chance of 60k is the equivalent of 18k per day and 18k per day is less than the 20k per day by planting 10k
i feel like i’d rather guarantee a profit every day of the week with 10k bags vs what i could *possibly* make from doing 30k bags 🤷🏻♀️
Even if it wasn't guaranteed, on average 10k is also better mathematically.
Abdallah doing us dirty by teasing us with those star fragment trees. But in all seriousness, great video. I used to be subscribed to the idea of patterns for the money trees, but after the official guide came out, I saw that my get rich quick scheme had gone up in smoke. As for the debate of whether to plant 10k or 99k, I'm on the 10k side. If I want to gamble, I just give my life savings to Daisy Mae every week and pray to the turnip gods for a good harvest.
Usually I either bury 1k, 10k, or 99k it depends which one I can afford to do
I have simulated this 10,000 times in a c++ program I wrote. Burying 30k earns less than burying 10k almost every time over the course of a year. In a year burying 10k always gives 7.3 mil in profits whereas burying 30k only yields 6.6 mil on average after subtracting the investment from the player across all 10,000 players.
Fact is unless the percentages are drastically off by Nintendo, 10k is safer and also almost always earns more
That sneak peek....can't wait for the next video!!! 😊
Statistically the 10k is the way to go. 10 days at 10k gives you a guaranteed 200k bells. 10 days at 30k will average 180k profit. So if the stats in this video are right, that seems to be the way to go. But I play pretty conservatively.
you are pretty much right. But, you could have a money tree pattern that you get 99k every 3 days or so on. you have to find out which days of money trees are more fertile. so realisticly, you might have a pattern of two days then three days. you just have to test it for a few weeks to find your money tree pattern
Long term it's more profitable to bury 10k rather than 30k or 99k, you lose a lot of bells long term if you bury 99k.
thanks for the info! and super cool to be added in the video. keep up the good work bro!
For those that need money get in that glitch asap
One glowing spot per day per user. Every user on the island gets its own money spot. 8 x 30K is nearly a quarter million every day, but's a fairly grindy means of getting there. Plus you need to have all those houses, (or tents, if you're lazy about it.)
If you're looking at a short window of time like 10 days, then yes you likely will profit more from a 99k tree.
BUT if you calculate your odds over longer periods of time like say a year, you profit the most from 10k trees over that time, and will actually have a net loss by planting 99k trees.
This is assuming you get an exact 70/30 split over this period.
I would correct the way you said this.
"If you're looking at a short window...then you POSSIBLY will profit more..."
the most likely is that you hit the odds and get 3 trees, in which case you have lost around 9K compared to what you might have gotten. You might get lucky and hit 4 trees, but you could just as easily get unlucky and only hit 2, in which case you have netted negative bells. I could figure the exact odds of each outcome, but it's not really worth it since it is clearly just a big risk.
No your math is wrong. The optimal value to plant for any period of time is 10K. However even if you plant 100k, your EMV is 11K, which is still a net profit of 10% over time. It's just obviously much less than the optimal 200% profit of doing 10K every time.
With a 15k bell investment instead of the 10k one, your exact income could be a bit shaky, but if the chances are exact, it’s a profit of 195k from ten trees. If your luck is good, it can jump to 210k or higher but if it is complete trash, it could drop to at the very least 150k. If you want to take the gamble but still have a good income, doing 15k
10k it’s the best, considering you only need to
A) sell a few things
B) pop a yellow ballon
Or even just hit your money rock.
I have a really bad controller drift and accidentally buried over 99000 bells I thought it was lost forever and actually got it back times 3
Lol I like it how in front of the trees it’s just him doing the pog face
Being x the number of bells you plant (10000 ≤ x ≤ 99000), the formula for the average profit of 1 tree is f(x) = 0.3*3x + 0.7*30000 - x which SIMPLIFIED is f(x) = -0.1x + 21000. At the end of the year you will have gotten the maximum profit by planting 10000 bells a day.
So let's say we planted ten trees.
10K-
Total investment: 100,000 (10k x 10 trees)
Return: 300,000 (10 trees with 30k per tree)
Profit: 200,000 Bells (300,000-100,000)
30K-
Total Investment: 300,000 (30k x 10 trees)
Expected Return: 480,000 (7 trees return 30k gives 210,000 bells, plus 3 trees return 90k= 270,000 bells)
Expected Profit: 180,000 Bells (480,000-300,000)
99K-
Total Investment: 990,000
Expected Return: 1,101,000 (7 trees return 30k gives 210,000 bells, plus 3 trees return 297,000 gives 891,000)
Expected Profit: 111,000 (1,101,000-990,000)
10k is clearly the way to go. While 30k *feels* like it's a wash when you just get your 30k investment back, the truth is by taking that strategy you are hurting yourself in the long run.
if you run the numbers, the best way is to burry 10k. I've done the maths for, let's say, you plant money trees for 100 days with the 70/30 odds. With the 10k you get 2 millions profit after 100 days. With the 30k you get about 1.8 millions profits (roughly, depending on your luck. You can get a little more or a little less). And the 99k is the worst, with 1.11 million profits (again, more or less depending on your luck with the 70/30 odds). Like they said, slow and steady wins the race.
69k bells caught my eyes😂
Nice
As other people already correctly stated: 10k is statistically the best option. With the 70/30 chances 99k trees will yield 111k over 10 trees, 30k trees will yield 180k over 10 trees and 10k trees will yield 200k profit over 10 trees.
Bro, I've been keeping track of money trees for a month to see if there was a pattern, so thanks for this video so I can stop doing that lol. Looking back at my odds from this month also, I'm super unlucky with a big money rate of 20%
Same ha
10k gang right here! Realistically, you'd want your profits to be safe and steady. Why gamble for a 30% chance, when you can get 20k per day. That's 140k per week, 560k per month, and about 6.7 million bells a year. Besides, by putting only 10k, you have more bells on your pocket.
You also won't be able to find one if you have open space that's view is blocked by fence, trees, or furniture
I'm wondering how the luck for these trees works. The percentage for a 99K bell tree is 30%. I was wondering: is that 3:10, 30:100, or even 300:1000 odds? They're all equivalent.
After seeing this my main account will be burying 30k from now on. My 5 other accounts will still only do 10k. This is because my extra accounts only do the daily stuff, so they hardly make extra money besides their money rock. Especially since their money trees are usually collected by my main account. The fact 4 of them currently have all 3 ground floor spare rooms unlocked is already surprising.
Good video Abdullah. I’m still always a fan of the 10k bells method! Over a year and with percentages you will make more money :D
It's said there's some pattern in bell tree and once you find your own pattern you will know which certain days will grow 99k bell tree.
Yes, I plant $11,000 every time and track for 2 weeks (no time travel! It mess up the pattern) then I see my pattern was 2 days $10,000 then 1 day $11,000 then 1 day $10,000 and then $11,000. So according to the pattern, plant $99,000 on the $11,000 day will net u $99,000
No that was a BS click bate lie to get views. Data mine has shown it was all RNG. No pattern no way to get lucky. You are getting a pattern off pure luck if you have one. The code of the game only has data for the odds of 30% a tree to grow over 10,000. This lie about patterns needs to go away as it has tricked people like me into wasting my time until i learned it was meaningless.
Abdallah is making me so daring to put a 99k money tree but I know I would already get a 10k.
10k is best if % proc exact. 30% is less than 1/3 (33.333333~%) Most argued that 3.333333~% is very small and it's negligible. At best that makes 10k and 30k about the same, you make 60k every 3 days. Only difference is that you won't blame luck for not making $60k by the 3rd day if you do 10K every time. Guaranteed gain in the beginning of the game is crucial, once you saved up a bit it's all turnips afterwards.
10k or 30k is the best way to make a profit however if you just started playing the game you can bury a 100 bell money bag and get 3x 1000 bells in return a profit of 2900 bells then on the next day plant a 3k bell tree and so on until you reach 10k and then you never run out of bells unless you go higher than 30k
Since this breaks down 70/30, then if we plant 10 trees, we expect to hit 3 "big" and 7 "small".
So if we bury 10K each time, we get a net profit of 20K every day for a total of 200K profit.
If we bury 30K each time, we get break even 7 times and get 60K three times for a net profit of 180K. That's worse than just buring 10K each time. I think the problem is the "you break even"...yes 70% of the time you break even, but that isn't taking opportunity cost into consideration. You broke even, but you could have made 20K, so relative to what you could have made, you are down 20K and the 3 times you hit 60K isn't enough to make up for that.
And this gets worse the more you bury. if you bury 99K, then 3 times you make 198K (594 total), but 7 times you lose 69K (483 total), so in every 10 days, you net an average profit of 111K bells.
Love the channel and the thorough break downs you do!!!
I found out burying 99k bags the hard way...I did it twice thinking I'm going to pay off my loan faster by doing it and just got 10k back. I was pissed lol
Growing star fragments of trees!!!???? how?!?? I can't wait for that video..I have to know how you did it.
I thought for weeks I had a lucky day for getting over 10k bells but then one week it failed me. Now I just do 10K every day. Currently I have 4 trees right in front of my house each planted a day before each other.
I hate how there are so many conflicting videos on RUclips. Another video I watched said planting more than 10,000 will never get u more than 3 $10,000 bell bags. It also said once u grow a money tree, that's it. Chop it down & move on. There's another video that said it depends what day u plant it & how fertile your island is on that day. For what it's worth, I've only planted 1,000 & 10,000. Every time it's been the same. The 1000 gets me 3x 3000 & the 10,000 gets me 3x 30,000. I've been playing a little over a month with one money tree per day. Figuring that's about 30 trees with, we'll say ½ 1000 & ½ 10,000, that's 15 each with 100% of the time getting 3x what I put in.
Dude he says boo to 10000 bells and I'm struggling to get them
Me:how does he have so many bells
Profit:
10k - 7.3 million per year guaranteed
30k - 7.32 million profit average per year (60k 1/3 of the time, 0 2/3rds of the time so 60k x 122days)
99k - -16.767 million + 24.156 million = 7.389 million on average
Basically, there's literally no reason to bury more than 10k and you can see that just by the calculations I did as just about no matter the bells over 10k you put in, you'll get around a 7.3 million bells per year profit and a few days off that 70/30 split and if it breaks one way or another on that can net you a few more bells or a few fewer bells, but on average, you're not going to beat the 10k drop by an amount that's worth putting in more than 10k.
30k isn't best optimisation its good chances but 10k is guaranteed more money over the longer period of time. If you do the maths 30k you get 60k profit 1 in just over 3 times (30%) whereas the 10k gives 20k every day no matter what
From a stats perspective:
Planting 10K - average expected outcome is 20K (you will always get this outcome)
Planting 30K - average expected outcome is 18K (30% of the time you make a profit of 60K, the rest of the time you break even)
Planting 99K - average expected outcome is 11.1K (30% of the time you make a profit of 198K, but the rest of the time you are losing 69K)
I heard a rumor that if Isabelle says it's her lucky day during daily announcements, you're more likely to get back 99k x3 if you plant it. True/false?
Omg that teaser! I need to know now! 🥰
I like to hamster all my money trees in my pocket after putting 10,000 bells in side the glowing hole to make them. Waiting a whole week to have 5 trees in my pocket then plant all five in the same area watch them grow, to then shake them all at the same time. I know I'm weird but it's fun.
Wow! Can’t wait for next video! Star fragments!
Imo best options are burying 100 or 10000 bells (first one gives you 3000 bells everytime so u get 2900 profit) u make the most long term this way
Can wait for some star trees⭐️
on average, in one year:
10k daily - 7.3M profit
30k daily -
6.57M profit
99k daily - 4.0515M profit
TLDR; 10k daily still the optimal choice.
assuming you get one money tree every day, after 10 days you would see a 200k bell profit if you buried the 10k bag. after that same 10 days, 30k would net you a 180k profit, so the 10k bag is the better investment long term
I SWEAR TO GOD there are two days a week that will 100% give you back whatever amount you plant. It’s really easy to test to find which days work in your town. Plant 11,000 bells in every glowing hole for one week. I’ve been doing this for weeks and it never fails. Please try it Abdullah!
The burry 30k strat seems really nice! I'll do it starting from today
I didn’t even know that burying 99K bells doesn’t always become 99K...
Everytime I buried the bells it always gave me my 99K so I never knew that this was possible
Waluigi goes WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
I may be doing my math wrong here but this is how I figure it. So you have one money tree pre day if you plant 10k in each of those for 7 days at the end of that week (not allotting for growing time here) you would have a profit of 140,000 bells. If we take the 30k route and you do that for 7 days you'd only need 3 of those money trees to give you 30k x3 to gain a profit of 180,000k. You're not guaranteed that 3 will be x3 but those aren't bad odds for profit especially if you get more then 3 60k money trees. Theres not really a lot of risk in it either since you either break even or profit. I'll be doing 30k from not on.
10,000 is the optimal solution.
Let B represent the number of bells you bury. Then, your profit minus expense (which you want to maximize) is represented by the following formula:
3(B)(0.3) + 30,000(0.7) - B
= -0.1B + 21,000
Obviously, now, the higher your B is, the lower this number gets. Therefore, putting in the minimum number of bells possible to use this formula (10,000) is the optimal solution.
Statistically, 10k is the only right option *if you play regularly.*
Risk VS Reward - but even the reward is lower over time for anything >10k.
10k plant: 20k per day, or 60k every 3 days
E=20k/day
30k plant: 30% _chances_ of 60k per day
E=0.3*60=18k/day
99k plant: 30% chances of 198k per day, 70% chances of 69k loss per day
E=0.3*198-0.7*69=11.1k/day
The more you play, the more your results get closer to the real statistics. You don't get "luckier" the more time passes, you just get closer to the real statistics.
There is no reward for higher risk here.
If it’s a perfect world then the 10k bell bag would be the best. If you plant 30k 10 times and it’s a perfect world then 7 of the time you have a profit of 0 but the other 3 time you will make 180k bells. If you plant the best way which is the 10k bells every time then you would make 20k every day profiting 200k every 10 days
I always do 10k trees no matter what. I skipped time in my game while I had a full grown money tree. I finally shook the tree maybe like 5 months later and I got 99k money tree. I was confused and that’s what brought me to this channel. Has this happened to anyone?
So you make 7.3 million bells per year profit if you bury 10k
If the randomization gave you exactly 30% you make 6.57 million bells if you bury 30k
here's the math:
20,000 * 365 = 7,300,000
60,000 * (365 * .3) = 6,570,000
There is NO reason to plant more than 10k bells. You will not make more money over time.