EASIEST ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | No Daily Bias 77% WIN RATE (PASS PROP FIRMS WITH THIS)
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- Опубликовано: 6 авг 2023
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Literally super Literally super super Literally super Literally!
@@biggalaxy9102 🔥
Dude lost account today 😂
@@a.carnevale4910 Its so stupid call that Silver bullet, its like a scam : People lets found any FVG 5min tf, and place order long or short, without bias, without targets on liquidity. Thats not work like that/ Clown
Don't get it. 1) Market open 9:30 not 10 and 2) why 5Min TF? 3) Direction not Clear. I'll check on the Chart and see.. Cause Other guy trading Diff times and Diff TF and calling this same "Silver Bullet".. :)
guys 6 months, 121 trades, I backtested this and 44.2R+ return after 6 months risking 1%, 10 back to back winning streak, 5 back to back lossing streak, 1 lossing month, 5 winning month, best month: 22R+, worst month: -1.5R. 50 lossing trade total and 60 winning trades so you could say 60% winrate gonna keep on testing ya'll this shit works.
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What is your time zone?
@@francescogatta5047 10-11AM +5 NY killzone
Brilliant data. Thank you so much.
@@magethemaskedgamer4510 no p
Funded! most simplified breakdown of the silver bullet I've sen so far. Short and sweet. Love it! Thanks Casper
Thank you! 🙏❤️
How has it been? Did you change your strat or has this been profitable?
100 trades ,exact rules ,starting balance $300,000 , Jan 11-Jun 17 2022 42% win rate ending balance 337,171,67 Im going to test a couple variations. Keep you posted . Thank you Casper 👍
🫡🤝
WHICH IS THE MOST WINNING AND LOOSING DAY OF THE WEEK????
Hello bro how could you backtest that much do you have any option to backtest for Last 2 years chart data in Nasdaq 100 if you have please suggest me
You're brilliant I've watched about 6 videos of people saying 'the last video you will need' when in reality this is the last video I will need.
Today I come to this video to thank you Casper, I have improved my trading and this video just helped me to fund me. We can always adapt this strategy with other confluences for more efficiency, but simply what you explain in your video is necessary. It takes a lot of patience and an iron mentality to stick to the plan, if we do this we will achieve great things. A hug, I want you all to know that it is possible. Discipline and patience.
Glad to hear that! Thank you! 🙏
The ICT study by CasperSMC is really really Important to understand psychology of Real ICT......I really following you since 2022 and have seen very good changes in my lewrning also....love u bro❤️ thank u 💯
❤️❤️❤️
Due to this video now i understand original Silverbullet with finding next most likelly draw on liquidity and narrative. Added to my intraday trading after 2022 model....Casper big respect+++ to You.
Strategy-
1. 10am NY SB
2. 5m FVG formed (at or after10am before 11am)
3. Set Limit Order (SL @1st FVG candle with TP @2RR)
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10 AM NY IS 7:30PM IST RIGHT?
@@Jonas11-yv8ls Right
@@Jonas11-yv8ls Yes, according to a Google search.
@@franzrazzetti thanks
Bless you Jesse. Thank you for being able to break down this concepts in an easy to understand way for the newer traders and for always being transparent with your examples. As someone you learns best visually, it’s always refreshing watching you explain a concept and then explain it again with a live example. Thankful and grateful for your content always.
Thanks man. That means a lot 🙏
Have been a trader trading for one solid year as of December 1st. I have had trouble finding consistency until I found this video and wanted to say thank you. It is working like a charm.
Thank you! 🙏🤝
Have you still been consistent with using this strategy?
Are you profitable bro with this strategy?
Casper. This was indeed my ah ha moment. I backrests the NQ 180 days using both 10am and 2pm times. 123 wins and 31 losses. Approx 75% . ES 70 % . You are undoubtedly one of the best follows on RUclips. Thanks for all you do. I have signed up for my first evaluation w apex. Starting next week with this strat. I'll lyk!!!!😊
🔥🔥🔥🔥
Last 6 months.
@@curiouskittycat5977 yes
So do you take 2 trades a day since you will be using the pm session silver bullet as well? or do you apply both?
@denisheohector7412 I tested each pair NQ ES for past 180 days using the SB at 10 and 2. So yes 2 trades per day. I also found that if the FVG failed I could use it as an inversion gap to trade in the other direction.
Results:
June 2023 +10%
July 2023 +1%
August 2023 (currently) -3%
Win Rate = 40.48%
Max Drawdown = -8.00%
Backtested the last couple of months. As most mechanical strategies, performs well in it's ideal conditions, poor when not. Will definitely pass challenges, will also fail them.
Thanks for the content.
❤️
How many % did you risk per trade?
was about to say the same. most youtubers are completely overhyping these strats
Just back tested July ...holly!!!!!!!!😮Hactic
@@sihlepdlamini101 what are the results
Thank you for uploading Casper.... You are really giving a lot to the community
🤍🙏
Hey Casper! I’ve honestly gone through 10s of videos explaining this silver bullet and I’ve been losing was about to give up on it until I tried it out the way you have explained it and it worked well! Thank u
That's fantastic to hear! 🔥
Abit late to the party but i have just tested Feb 2024 and March 2024.
Feb - 5 win, 9 loss - 1% gain
March - 7 win, 8 loss - 6% gain
Profitable but too many losses.
Would love more similar strategies for gold ect. These are becoming a game changer for me. Love mechanical easy to spot set ups.
It is amazing how you take complex strategies and you simplify them for the traders. Thank you for all you do for the community. # Funded
Thank you! 🤍🙏
I want to take the time to show gratitude and appreciation. You are making a difference in the trading industry. So thank you, for everything. God bless you.
I appreciate that! 🙏🤝
I’m so glad you dropped this video. For anybody new to ITC please watch this video. This is a beginner level strategy and I highly recommend it. This helped me a lot!
Glad it helped! 🙏
I will definitely try this out,thank you for going so much in depth and still keeping it simple,great video and a great lad,Thank you so much for what you’ve done for the community Casper✊🏻❤️
❤️❤️❤️
Did you try it out??
Sorry, can I ask you if you know what time the time spoken of in the video corresponds to (10am) in Italy? I'm trying to replicate it but I'm not very profitable
You can change the time at the bottom right of Tradingview. Just set your time to New York time😁 I live in Germany, it should be 16-17 in italy@giuliobraccini1008
@@giuliobraccini1008 If you use Tradingview I suppose that the chart will show what time. So the time in Italy may be different from the time on Tradingview but it should be 10-11am on tradingview time ig.
i've tested this exact entry model from june 2022 till july 2023 (13 months, average winrate of 48% using 1% risk), only two months which ended up with 2% and 4% drawdown, the rest are profitable
- but i removed trades that didn't trigger by end of session + added 3 pips buffer for SL
How do you determine whether to go long or short once you’ve identified the FVG?
@friedfortnitelive5224 FVG above price (short) FVG below price (long) A fair value gap is the difference between the current market price of an asset and its perceived fair value. You are banking on the market returning to its "fair value," aka your entry, before continuing in the direction initially identified. You are waiting for the gap to get filled and then enter once the market considers itself balanced
which session? 11? if it doesnt trigger before 11 u remove the limit?
Wht is the reward you took
I've watched about 20 different videos, including that of ICT, focusing on the Silver Bullet strategy. I want to let you know that you're really good at explaining it! You get right to the main points and use simple methods. I like that you show the Tradingview chart instead of just drawings - it's much clearer that way. Thank you a lot for this. Now I'm excited to try out the strategy, and I'm definitely going to check out your other videos too. I also Liked and Subscribed. Take care!
Thank you so much! Take care brother 🤝
How did it play out?
Sorry, can I ask you if you know what time the time spoken of in the video corresponds to (10am) in Italy? I'm trying to replicate it but I'm not very profitable
16-17 in italy @@giuliobraccini1008
bro how it is
Hi Casper. Tested this strategy and I must say I'm very happy with the win rate. My backtesting gives my 5 losing trades in a row. Bought an account and straight of the bat I'm 4% down but I'm not even stressing because I know this strategy work and I've seen the 5 losing trades in a row. What I am most proud of is that I didn't break my rules to make up for the loses. If I lose this account I will still follow this because of my backtesting results. This is awesome bro. Thanks again
How long have you been trading this strategy? Im looking to use this strategy so I just want to hear from others who traded this...
Same bro
How did you do? Pass the funded?
Made $5000 the last 2 days trading NQ following your teaching on FVG. It was indeed my aha moment in trading. Thank you so much.
Let’s go🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Hey Casper. Thanks and really appreciate your efforts. I would just like to add that. ICT introduced this concept 3 months ago. I've been trading this since then. Some things he specifically mentions, is a must in this model.
1. It's a 10pip/5handle strategy. 1R-1.5R(and ofcourse it could run more)
2. The entry must be in this 1 hr. Skip the setup if it doesn't.
3. It's a htf continuation setup.
This will improve the win rate a lot. I've been funded and profitable using silver bullet. Always Backtest first guys. Good luck 🙏
Hi bro, I have been trading silver bullet strategy as well but to no succes... Even tho I backtested it and got amazing results im still strugling to pass my challenge... got any tips or help ?
@@noemarcon4548 Bro if your backtesting results are good, the only problem I see, could be market conditions & risk management or human error(price analysis )
What video did he bring this out with?
@@WianFX just search for ICT Silver bullet. And watch the video from his channel
@@noemarcon4548sounds like it’s a mental barrier you have to overcome. You had success back testing it. The same confidence you had while back testing is the same confidence you need to have confidence during live trading
FUNDED! Thank you Casper 💪🏽 great strategy, will Backtest it with FX replay as well
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One of the most clear trader mentor on the web, thanks bro to go always to the sauce!
🙏🙏🙏
Hey casper i backtested this on jan 1 2022-2023 the winrate was 30% with 166 trades and by the end of the year i lost -7%
Really ? because I found it succesfull. Mind if you show me your screenshots or some footage of some of the trades that you took ? maybe your execution is the mistake
@@noemarcon4548 Yea do u have discord
Thanks for helping him out🙏
@@noemarcon4548what's your winrate?
@@noemarcon4548 kinda tried it on the last 2-3 months , and its at break even
Jesse, this just got me funded. Thank you, you gave me the confidence to build discipline and consistency in trading. On difficult days I watched this video again and again and it reassured me and motivated me to stick to the rules and it paid off. I appreciate you 🎉
🤍
hey what pair are u trading? because i am trading nas100 and last month and this month its been horrible
@filipeantunes5967 I've only been trading NAS100, and yes, it's been really challenging. The market has mostly been consolidating, so I wait for days where there's good movement in the market and then I wait for the daily high / low to be taken or look for the judas swing between 9:30 and 10:00. I will then follow the plan as stipulated in this video. But some days there's good movement before 10:00, and as soon as the hour hits, the market starts to consolidate again. If there's no opportunity before 10:30, I don't trade for the day. Good luck!
@@filipeantunes5967It's been great. You're obviously not following the rules.
His Silver Bullet version is based on luck. You can't trade just based of a FVG. @@filipeantunes5967
Backtested from May 1st 2023, to today (August 12 2023). It is summer so i would expect it to be worse, but here are the results. A total of 19.07 RR (1% risk per trade = 19.07 % - the trade comissions). A grand total of 53 trades/trading days. Great profitable strategy, but to an experienced trader this is probably under your goals. I would recommend this to anyone new as it is super easy, and is enough to cover your losses from trading your own strategy that you are testing out!
Great video ❤
agreed! I backtested all of June so far on MES and the winrate was very profitable. Thanks for doing even more months.
What would you recommend for an experienced trader?
I tried this during the NY AM session today and it worked!! Very easy to spot and take advantage of-THANK YOU!!!
Q: Has anyone tried this method on the other kill zones?? I would love the opportunity to take 3 trades a day, if it’s profitable.
you are one of the few youtubers who really simplify it for everyone else, much love 🙏🏽
🙏❤
@@caspersmc please what time zone for the 10am
This is My exact same setup, same time frame same rules, only that i trade it on EU and GU, and use it with the daily bias and it works well, thanks man i appreciate 👌🏾
Nice!
what has been your win rate?
Only been using for 2 weeks now havent backtested it
@@sarkhens3843how is it going?
Just backtested it using SPX, over 120 trades with a 35-38% WR, did the backtesting for Aug-Nov 2022 with over 4% gain and another for May-Aug 2023 with a 10% gain. Thanks Casper!
🤝🙏
December 2020 38% wr
January 2021 40% wr
So strategy loses 60% of the time. You'd fail a ftmo account most of the time with that win rate.
@@youtubeislife2108 He loses 60% of the time 1 unit while winning 40% of the time 2 unit.
@@karatedog But if your lose streak is several losses in a row right there you failed your FTMO challenge. It's not uncommon to lose 10+ trades in a row.
v watched many silver bullet videos ever since he introduced the concept but boy ohh boy ,,this was the best so far,ITS SO MECHANICAL AND STRAIGHT TOTHE T' IN AND OUT ''am trading LONDON WINDOW''' wish me luck,,,BLESS UP✊ CASPER
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Have you found equal success during the London session?
@@sharronharris7985 Time 3am
Thanks for this exposé Casper!
I’ve tried the trading the am SB but fell off after some losers on m1.
Guess I didn’t have the guts to be mechanical with it.
But, I especially like the fact that you based this backtest off of m5 TF which gives me time to enter my trades as against the m1 TF.
I’m gonna forward test this on EU this month and see how it goes.
Appreciate it!
how s the backtesting
@@davidvinatoru8562F
how is it
I’m so happy that the algorithms passed your video my way. I really appreciate you sharing this and like some others in the comments mentioned, you are very good at explaining this and I’m definitely watching some of your other videos ! ;) Thank you brother
FUNDED!!
Ty for the content, I'm going all in on fvgs
Bless you Jesse, this setup is so easy to follow. Already backtested to another indicies and works like charm. Will test it live on today's market! Lessggoooo!
🙏
Hi, which indices did you test?
Did it work??
Funded!
Great strategy and really well explained, good job Casper!
❤️🙏
I just tested this strategy on FX Replay and it got a 31% win rate with 14 consecutive losses and only 4 consecutive wins. -6% RoI after 45 trades. Posted images to back up my claims and they were deleted in less than 10 minutes.
@@caspersmc I've backtested it for hundreds of days and it works like a charm. Thank you again for sharing this strategy with us!
Thank you, this is awesome. I have tested Feb ‘23 to June ‘23 on GU using London session and NY session. I adjusted it a bit as per one of the comments here placing entry at 50% of FVG and TP 2.5%. So far a total of +45% profit. I still need to analize the data but so far it looks that 3% TP might to the job as well. I will share my results when ive tested 3 years of data. So far, this is great dude!
which timeframe did you do your test? thanks
@@daqfu271 5M
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Thank you!
@@Jeremy.Muller for those months you can actually ignore London session, as eventually you donate back what you have made. 2.7% TP seems to be the sweetspot
Beautiful, simply and straight to the point. Thanks alot
🙏🤝
So clean and easy to understand.
Many appreciations!
Glad it was helpful!
I am intraday trader and also using silver bullet but ur strategy is more clear and better .Thank you so much sir ❤❤❤
🤝
I've been using the 62% entry tp at -0.27. Took me out of DD! Thanks Casper! I've even shared the video and the backtesting one with people asking for my strategy.
Hey
@@Carnagetelegrem I am still new to this. Casper has backtesting videos for his strategies.
Interesting I’ll have to test this. Thanks for being an awesome member of the community as always!!
what kinda winrate are you seeing
Can u please share it with me?
I've watched a few silver bullet videos.I definitely overthought everything, and gave up. But using the replay and watching it happen? It's now in my brain and I am going to back test it. Thank you
🤝🔥
Excellent video and info. Thanks for creating & sharing this.
Glad it was helpful! 🙏
My results backtesting Feb-Aug 2023. (ICT suggest to avoid Jan). Trade 127, win rate 47.24%, ytd return 43.80%. Best month Apr 14.75%. Worst Month Aug -1.62% (4 trading days)
So if my maths is correct, based on the quarter you did tests on, you could very easily pass a challenge and just trade your funded based off of this strategy and this strategy alone. That's sick casper thank you so much for this video 🙏
Awesome! Thanks!
bro I've backested it for 140 days and the win rate is 41.67% on a total of 84 trades with a total return of 22.1% in like 5 months. Not bad but can be a lot better
@@ahhpaolo your backtest was for risk 1% ?
Keep in mind this is an isolated example and no doubt cherry picked for more engagement on this video. If you backtest this yourself you can see some months like Jan 2023 can end on -7% DD for example.
@FX-Tracer @@tradenchill9123 I just finished back testing this strategy from Jan 2022 till Aug 2023, at first I honestly thought I had found a cheat code, but after few months everything started going down hill. Although the results were not as good as I hoped, I am happy and grateful for all the knowledge Casper is providing, I am learning everyday.
Casper if you read this Thank you, from the time I found your channel I have gained knowledge and better understanding of chart analysis.
These were my results:
Jan 2022 - +8.19%
Feb 2022 - +8.17%
March 2022 - +4.66%
May 2022 - +6.02%
May 2022 - +3.92%
Jun 2022 - -4.92%
July 2022 - -2.02%
Aug 2022 - -2.08%
Sep 2022 - -1.06%
Oct 2022 - -4.36%
Nov 2022 - +0.48%
Dec 2022 - -0.36
Ytd 2022 = +16.62%
Jan 2023 - -1.12%
Feb 2023 - -4.10%
March 2023 - +8.46%
April 2023 - +14.85%
May 2023 - +5.75%
Jun 2023 - -2.02%
Jul 2023 - -6.90%
Aug 2023 - -1%
Ytd 2023 = +12.82%
2022-2023 = 31.56%
Total Trades 229
Wins 86
Losses 143
Win Rate 37.55%
1% Risk all trades!
Funded!
Will def need to back test this one. Nice and simple and takes the guess work out of it.
🙏
Thank you for the lesson! You can also work on the 15-minute chart and look for a break in the structure and a gap in fair value near the time window, if it is not there, go down to the 5-minute chart and look for it already inside the time window.
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BT this over 35 days but I tested all 3 SB sessions.
35 days, total of 89 trades , 50wins and 39 losses which is a win rate of 56.17%. On a 100k account the gain would had been 61k. There 17 SB sessions with no trade setups. Did another test with less trades and funny , it came out the same win rate , 56%, 62 trades, 35 wins and 27 losses, 43k gain. As far as I can see , this works well over time. Nice work C.
🤝
Which 35 days did you backtest?
Yeah, I'm curious which dates you tested. I ran it through 3 months from August onwards and it was 40% with a 5k profit. And that's on a 150k account.
Backtested this on MT5 with an EA i wrote for it 2021 - now:
Caspers rules:
WR: 36.68%
27% GOA
DD: 16%
I adjusted some rules (enter on 50% of fvg, RR 1:4):
WR: 30.6%
90% GOA in 2.5 years
DD 11.3%
risking 1% per trade
Ja mijn 6 maand backtest in eerste deel van 2016 is gelijkaardig.
0% winst
33% winrate
Profit factor 1
10.15% max relative drawdown
Zijn vorige OTE strategie heb ik wel success mee, wel wat veranderingen aan gemaakt.
@@bigmitch7901 ja het lastige vind ik daarvan: wat classificeer je als liq grab en wat laat je gaan. Ik was profitable maar marginaal. Dus ben het nog aan t uitzoeken.
Could you please share your EA with us? Maybe we can make some adjustments and come up with a better entries?
@@ibrahimmammadov6922 are you a coder?
can you backtest on 3 min chart? what is the win/loss ratio?
Just tried this one today, after back-testing it a few weeks. Win for today, defo keeping this one as a go to.
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No words. All I can say is WOW. Thank You! ❤❤❤❤
Glad you like it!
Hey Casper. Your videos have really helped me iron out many problem areas in my trading. Thanks . I live in India and think I am ready to try a prop firm. I can t find much information online if this is allowed in India and which form should I choose ? Thanks so much
Let's go!
Gems on gems as usual ❤❤
💎
@@caspersmc 🙏🏼❤️
This is exactly how Ive been using it over the last few weeks. Its awesome! I trade NQ with it but im going to try ES and CL soon.
You can do it!
Have you tried / backtested CL yet?
Tested on fx replay from
Januray 1st - Augst 25th.
Winrate: 44%
R:R: 1:2
Gain: 16.5%
Peak Gain: 16.78%
I backtested this strategy for 6 years, for a total of 1.102 trades risking 1%. Here are the results: 4/6 years were around 30-38% profit. Two years were -5% and +5%. Profit factor is around 1.3-1.2. Max drawdown is 16% and overall return is around +128%. I wouldn’t say it’s the best strategy, considering the amount of money risked, but it does work. And it is insanely easy to execute!
Also recommend using 0.5% per trade because 1.3 profit factors means u’ll go in drawdown sometimes… So be care-full.
🔥🔥
@@acetradesx was one of those bad years 2021? Backtesting that year now, and flat thru September’21
@@ChemistryNotesyeah, 2021 sucks. I think 2018 is bad also, if i remember well
Jesse, I believe you have a natural talent at breaking down complex ICT ideas into easy-to-understand mechanical systems. If I were to watch only 2 trading youtube channels, it would be yours for trading strategies, and Imperfect Trader's for psychology. Cheers!
Thank you! 🥂
@Trade_station1 If you can turn 1k to 10k with just a few trades, those signals should cost a ton of money. Otherwise why would you sell those when you, yourself could turn 1k to 10k in just a few trades, right? Then trade and make a lot of money, you don't need to sell anything.
Theres a comment like this for every guru channel😂
@@bronson1392 exactly. I'm yet to see somene who has written CODE to execute those trades. Then it would be really,really emotionless and imperative 😃
@@bronson1392 these guys are annoying as fuck. All they want is scam innocent people
Perfect video, you just got yourself a new subscriber. Keep it up mate!
Awesome, thank you!
Thanks for sharing your take on this, @Casper SMC. If the third candle that prints to form a FVG happens to be the 10am candle, is it valid?
I have a question. Should we treat gap up or gap down openings as FVG for this strategy?
I love what you said about the benefits of a mechanical strategy and taking the setup no matter what. Powerful! It's one of my problems. FUNDED
I agree. When Casper mentioned about it doesn't have to look perfect he was speaking directly to me lol
Let’s go!!!
Hi please I wanted to ask if it works on NY only? Can I use it for forex?
Wow my first trade with this today and made 4% with 2% risk. So glad I found your video explaining it so well. Thank you.
That's great! Thanks 🙏
❤ i just subscribed its amazing how much work do you put in this and i just tested out its true and it works about 60% al the time but its great with a nice risk management its perfect.thanks
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I've backtested a whole year. 2022. 36,21% Winrate. 37,7% Profit. (Av. Monthly 3,1%) Best Months: April 10%, July 12,2%. Months ended up negative: Feb -1,7% , June -1,2% , Aug -1,8% , Nov -3,8%
I have +3.9% for november 2022
@@jochenfeyten1933 Well. honestly it wasn't a pure Silver Bullet backtest, just the majority of it. So it could be that. More than that, I was testing diferent RR, like 3:1 and so. Again, the bast majority of setups I took the whole year of backtest was as this video tells. So ye, the other trades could have altered the results. Take what I said with a grain of salt. Oh and, important note, I was not closing trades If I was already in, sl or tp, not manual close..
@@Jorcuis_ oh okay, I am going to test 1:4 R and entering off if the 50% of the fvg to see if it gives better results
Backtest result:
Surprisingly win rate was 44% for both 1:2 & 1:3 RR
Duration: 7 Aug 23 to 5 Sep 23
RR:1:3
Risk:0.40%($20)
Total Trades:18
Wins:8
Loss:10
Net gain:$248
Net%=4.96%
Do the opposite, see what you get 😂
I got 9 wins and 10 losses from Sept 18 2023 to Oct 15 2023
That’s 47% WR and 8% RR total
I could literally kiss you, lol. The one tidbit about taking the very first fvg formed has completely transformed my results. Because it's only traded during one SB window, I could backtest super fast. I backtested 4 months (about 80 trades), my win rate was 51% with 28% profit return. Amazing. I will keep testing but this made me a SB lover again. Thank you!
Glad it helped! 🙏🙌
Finding it hard to locate fvg, but this silver bullet simplified it, the 77% win rate shows how great Jesse is. Funded! Just changed my trading view time to New York zone.
🙏❤️
I have tried this on the 3-4am session since last tuesday, Pretty impressed, 100% win rate so far, thanks for the video mate! thanks casper!
Did you backtest it ? It looks great but could change depending on the period
It’s still works at 3-4am?
Hi, I backtested from 2007-04-03 to 2023-09-06 (not manually, i programmed it) : Total trades = 3344; Wins = 1198 (36%); Losses 2146 (64%); Profit = 27 RR; Profit Factor = 1.013 RR; Best win streak = 8; worst loss streak = 18; Position closed : 30% TP, 63% SL, 8% Other
Can u do it for 2021 to today ?
@@barcatv1914 Total trades = 600; Wins = 203 (34%); Losses 397 (66%); Profit = -13 RR; Profit Factor = -0.021 RR; Best win streak = 6; worst loss streak = 13; Position closed : 31% TP, 65% SL, 4% Other
can you add partial 25% at 1R and go to breakeven and ket the rest run to 2.5R ?
Could you do a 1:4 rr ratio from 2007
I encountered that losing streak of 18 also, it happens in 2021.
great video jesse. cant believe its just now im watching this. im used to watching your videos talking about using daily bias and this one you said no daily. im kinda scared to be honest but the video was great.
Glad you like them!
Solid strat - implementing on one of my 100k accounts - gets consistent 10% on average per month
Appreciate this casper! Dont mind the negative comments..a strategy even if 40 to 50 percent with 1:2rr is still a win. The important part is having a strategy that will fit your life style. Will definitely try this out.. thanks man! Cheers! Funded! 😊🎉
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Hi, how can you say comments are negative if they are based on bactest :::
Do you use this strategy
Hi Jesse! You give so much more then we all expect. With this strategy you have made it so simple, that we do not have any excuses. I have backtested it and I have around 50 to 60 % win rate, over 1 year period. I would also add here that I was also looking for MSS if I have a displacement with FVG. Do you think that we can use it also as an ny pm silver bullet? ( in case the markets are in am session to choppy). Thank you! Looking forward to see your next video!
what do you use to backtest?
hey, which year did you test?
Hi! I use Tradingview, but I have Excell sheet to track it all. @@FlippyFlippers
Hey! I have tested 2022. But I am focusing more on 2023 now.@@Hugowb
hey what pair did you use ?
been trying out too! It works better when you follow the daily bias
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So glad I stumbled across you. You're clear and well spoken. Sounds like u know ur sh!t. Unlike all these other guru thats trynna make a sale. Bless u n ur fam.
I appreciate that! Thanks
I tested this on NAS for the whole of 2023.
Here are the results:
Total profit 29%
time to pass phase 1 (8%): 3,5 months
time to pass phase 2 (5%): 2 weeks after passing phase 1.
then it ran up to the highest point in the 2 months following but from june till august 2023 it stayed around BE or at a small loss.
Win rate: 42.75%
total trades taken: 139
Max win streak: 5
Max losing streak: 6
Now this is someone who did his homework
So on a 1000 dollar account you would have made 290 dollars in a years time?
@@ivohage yes, use a propfirm account of 200k, and suddenly it's almost 60K a year, provided you only use one propfirm and not a whole bunch more
What NY time is this please??
@@folorunshoayobamidele725 UTC-5 at the bottom right of your chart you can simply change it to NY time. It's from 10-11am NY time
A lot of the time, the FVG has already formed before 10am and the retracement back into it for the entry happens from 10am onwards. ICT once confirmed this too, that the FVG doesn't need to form after 10am, as long as you are entering on a FVG within that 1 hr window. This was the case for some of my best Silver Bullet trades
Is that to say that If a FVG develops before or during but doesn't retrace to it during the hour, you are not to take the trade?
correct. Placing a trade outside of the 1hr window is breaking the rules for the Silver Bullet. Perhaps you can use ICT's 2022 model to enter after lol@@Kilo80Kilo
Please what time zone for the 10am
@@PremierRecordITStudio it’s UTC-4 bro (New York local time). Also 2pm-3pm (PM Silver Bullet), and 3am-4am (London Silver Bullet). All UTC-4
how do you know whether its a buy or sell thou i can spot this play but cannot determine if its a buy or sell after FVG has formed
tested it from april till now on btoh your way and another way where i enter at 50% of fvg and 3r tp same results 45% win rate 16% up with 1R risk although i did have a 9 L streak one time. I want to try it again instant fvg entry but 3r trade this time.
God damn, I didn't expect it to be that simple, but it is definitely working! Pretty good video bruh!
Thank you for your kind words! 🙏
Love this strategy as a mechanical way to get "in the zone" as Mark Douglas would say. Question for Jesse -- would you take an FVG entry if the first candle of the FVG was the 9:50 - 9:55am candle and the second candle (the body of the FVG) formed at 9:55 - 10am? Or does it work best with 10am forming the first candle of the FVG structure? Thanks!
I hope casper reply on this! good question! today i took a trade after first fair value gap was formed like at 9:50 and then second one was formed at 10:15 was confused! took trade on nq but lost it!
At the minute 11:10 in the video, he used a FVG with the first candle at 9:55 and I think that's the earliest it should be. Cause if the first candle is at 9:50 then the FVG is at 9:55 which is against the past 10 rule.
Today the FVG was at 10:45 and the entry kicked in at 11:25 and ran 11:50 for a 1:2. The one thing I can say is backtest. GO to Tradingview and backtest all of August to give you confidence. I backtest 60 days and YES, some entries come after 9:50. I would avoid before that because its market opening. The first 15 minutes there is a lot of manipulation
The first entry can be taken after 10:10 and ONLY if the fvg gap (the 2nd candle) was formed between 10:00-10:05
1st time watching your videos, i have been following ICT for a long time and am consistent. I enjoyed watching this. Can I ask why you do not take into account liquidity - for example if the 5M has purged liquidity above an old high/low, order flow has been disrupted, and returning to a 5M BISI likely lead to an IFVG. Is the purpose of this model to stick with directional bias from the FVG... I like the idea of the model, as it is focused on repetition, and discipline. One thing i found for myself where i would have loosing days is where i over complicate order flow. I am a neophyte, only trading ICT concepts on a funded since June (4 months of study first, then 2 months demo). Conceptually i have a great understanding of order flow, but at times my biggest struggle is my mental capacity. I remember ICT mentioning the need to keep a job while trading, or beginning as you over focus the need to win a trade. My progress this year has been great nonetheless. I aim to pass a funded account before December.
give it a rest pal you sound like a tit
Funded. Thank you for sharing this, simplify and very detail. very helpful
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Thanks for sharing your strategy bro! The beautiful thing about a 1:2 RR is that your win rate doesn’t even have to be high. You can go one month with a 50% win rate on this and still be profitable!
Thanks! 🔥🫡
Hey Jesse...
I have backtested this strategie in Tradingview:
27.12.2022 to the 07.08.2023
130 trades
58 wins
72 loses
rate 44,62%
start 10k
end 13,8K
~38% gain in 8 months...
max losing streak: 8 trades
max wining streak: 5 trades
the winrate is far of from the Thumbnail^^
but yeah could still work
try to find 30 min fvg and only enter with the 5 min fvg that is same as the 30 min one.
I am backtesting it now and its good so far, you won't trade everyday but when it shows it works.
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@@assia341 must the 30min fvg be formed inside the silver bullet or before?
The one you showed 09:22 was valid but you traded the wrong side. Silver bullet are a continuation pattern of the already ongoing trend. And the fair value gap do not have to be formed within that hour, it just has to form a entry into a fair value gap within it. And the exit can also be later
Is there any way you can further explain what you said regarding that "it doesn't have to form a FVG, but an ENTRY into a FVG"?
It doesnt have to be continuation cuz its called also opning range where reversal happened at 10 or 10:30 most of time cuz high or low of the session is formed
And does it work for gold or other pairs ?
Awesome! Thank you for that!
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I will be back testing this strategy for the whole month. Thanks Casper. Funded
Good luck and let me know the results!
Sure bro I will.
If you combine this with the daily draw on liquidity, the win rate goes up exponentially. You're gonna know which fvg to enter and which one to avoid.
explaine
When done correctly, yes - many beginners can’t do that
The win rate goes up? Or would the win ratio go up?
@@rorinotengo173 lol
Do you have any stats on your "claim" ::: But I'll test myself would love if you could give more info. / explanation :::
Nice and clean strategy 🔥🔥
Simplicity scales!
i tried this backtest for 18days in NQ July 17 to Aug 09 in a 5m TF. Win- 6 lose 10 No Trade- 1. In ES 5m TF win-8 lose-9 NT- 1
and i tried it again in 3m TF NQ 21days in NQ July 13 to aug 10. Win- 11 Lose 10. In ES 3m TF 21days Win-14 Lose 5- NT-1. gonna test this everyday. thank you so much for the lesson coach casper.
I love the simplicity of this strategy and I’ll be trying it on my XFA account! I know we are only focusing on the 10-11 time window, but has this been backtested on the 2-3PM and the 3-4AM?
Just wanted to add an update:
Backtested Jun-Dec 2023. Total 110 Trdaes, 46 Winners, 42% Strike Rate, 36.5R total return.
Doesnt sound too bad. It will pass challenges, but if you have dynamic risk management for Drawdown periods it take A LONG TIME! average 90 trading days
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I am currently backtesting this strategy
Into 36 trades rn and i have added a few more comfluences to this
It is a fact that ict has given only a framework on silver bullet and not the exact strategy
These are some of the confluences
1. Have to look for liquidity before entering
If theres liquidity below your long sL then it will get taken and price moght move in your dorection later . And same in case of shorts also
2. I am taking trades in all 3 sessions like he said earlier in the video gives me more trades from my testing its more effective in ny session. Hits more tp in ny session
3. I trail sl if market makes a new swing
4. If fvg is more than 10 pips i take 50% of fvg as entry and target the same price as in entry at fvg so that i will get 4r as profit instead of 2r
5. Sometimes i keep target at swing highs or lows or ob or htf fvg also and maybe trail them till it reaches those levels
6. If im trailing i move sl to breakeven at 2r
Bro! Ive been working on this. That 3 candle FVG was my 'Ah ha" moment .Thank you!
Perfect! 🔥🫡
Been back testing something similar to this looking for a liquidity grab of London or NY PM/AM then wait for a displacement leg and a 5m fvg to form in the displacement leg. Close to an 80% win rate using 2:1
Bruh is there any way I can add you on discord or something? I've been struggling with Silver bullet because of my limited time I can dedicate to trading during the day. But anything I backtested didn't went into any profit. Many videos with many approaches for the silver bullet as well as original ICT's approach. For some reason in long term my backtests are going negative. Concepts and market structure seems to be clear for me, but there is definitely something I am missing out. Any way we could have a short chat and discuss your trading approach? Maybe this might help me. (No need to do that if you don't want to but I had to at least try) Peace ✌
What was your sample size of the trades ?
Oh really?