The Fed Plans to Taper. Here’s What That Means. | WSJ
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- Опубликовано: 17 окт 2024
- The Federal Reserve says it will accelerate the wind-down of its bond-buying program, the biggest step the central bank has taken in reversing its pandemic-era stimulus. Here’s how tapering works, and why it sends markets on edge. Photo illustration: Adele Morgan/WSJ
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#Tapering #Fed #WSJ
Even if bond yields are increasing while stock prices are falling, the markets remain skeptical that the Federal Reserve will stick to its goal to raise interest rates until inflation is under control. As I'm still debating whether to sell my $401,000 worth of stocks, what is the best way to benefit from the present bear market?
It's more difficult to build a strong financial portfolio, so I advise you to get professional help. The suggestions you get after that might be customized to fit your long-term objectives and financial preferences.
You're not doing anything wrong; you just don't have the knowledge to profit in a down market. Only experts with great knowledge who must have seen the 2008 catastrophe may earn considerably during tumultuous times like these.
@@oscarjiron6974 I need advice on how to rebuild my portfolio and come up with new strategies because of the significant drops. Whereabouts of this advisor's city?
@@waynestones It's amusing that you brought it up since I completely understand. I'm not sure whether I can mention this, I have dealt with a lot of investment advisors, but so far ''sharon lee casey'' has proven to be the most capable and educated. My portfolio is also managed by her.
@@oscarjiron6974 I can see why she is so busy because she has an impressive profession and excellent credentials. Therefore, without further ado, I immediately copied Sharon's complete name and typed it into my browser.
6 year old: Why don’t we just print more money??
Governments: Genius!! 😊
Inflation : Hello there !
@@FM-to3gy general kenobi
@@FM-to3gy That's why your taxed
😁😁🤣
Funny how all the money that was handed out for means of surviving ended up in stock market?? 🙄
Stock options or stock market 🙄🙄🙄
stonk markets
And real estate.
That’s what happens when you trust the avg idiot with 1000$ check
The way to peace
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I'm really glad that you guys explained tapering in such an easy fashion. Thank you very much !
Raising rates & all it implies isn't that complicated. Thinking that banker is an elitist job is only popular belief, most people could do it after only 4 mounths of preparation.
But if tapering isn't done, we might see inflation rise even further and if it crosses above 8-9% it's going to be real bad.
Its already above 8% if you use the CPI measurements that were used in the 70's, they have been fudging the numbers with things like OER
The way to peace
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They are fully aware,that their actions are not responsible ones.all intentional .or, oops,sorry,we just didn't understand.does anyone think that ? If the first is true- shouldnt we have the biggest investigation ever......they say,..we had to do it..yeah,right !
it’s ok we just have to change the definition of inflation with ideas like “hedonic adjustment” and “nothing to see here”
Its kinda sad most people don't even know what inflation is, or rather believe the Keynesian propaganda on what it is. Inflation is the expansion of the money supply, and when you expand the money supply the prices will start to inflate as well. This just happens in delay. Mainstream economists call the rise in prices "inflation", when in reality its actually the expansion in money supply (aka money printing). Then this inflation trickles down to economy in time. FED expanded (inflated) the money supply by 40% in 2020, so if we survive with just 7% inflation I'd be shocked. Its likely gonna get way worse.
The dual mandate is simply self-contradicting at this stage, impossible to have low inflation AND high growth.
the dual mandate is controlling inflation and maximizing employment. They are contradictory. You can have one or the other but not both. It's time to return the Fed single mandate of price stability (pre1977).
This is not contradictory if you understand economics. The FEDs mandates are price stability and full employment. This is why the FED sets an inflation target of 2% a year, not 0 because it expects that we will see prices rise but at a stable rate. Next year when the supply chain issues work themselves out, then we will see inflation go back to where it was before the pandemic.
@@vandreadparty I understand economics and low inflation and maximum employment are contradictory hence the Phillips Curve.
The dual mandate of the Fed is price stability and full employment, not high growth.
What all of you fail to understand, the fed literally manipulates the markets into devaluing our dollar whenever they please. They’re fixing the markets alright, fixing them to do exactly what they want them to do.
The bond buying started many years ago. In 2008 it was called quantitative easing.
You really don't know much do you
It started earlier than that bro
labor participation is low, the real wage is down, real sales in shrinking, he said the economy is strong, haha.
Let’s see, internet user vs leader of one of the most important financial organizations.
Obviously I trust the internet user
BS BS BS
@@ling636 This is factual data from those financial organizations.
@@ling636 you believed inflation was transitory then?
You just cherry picked a few data points and think that’s a solid foundation for a good argument, haha.
The market is constantly worried. It's like it's govern by a bunch of nuns ready to jump when a butterfly comes to close. Serisouly, no one has self control anymore?
As it should be! Ensuring that capital is efficiently employed is now more important than ever. Inflation is nasty but so is one where everyone is excessively cautious (see Japan's lost decades)
Its because everyone is up to their eyes in debt, having to roll that debt over into higher interest rates isn't good. All that free money goes away and real money has to start chasing real value and not these hype bubbles
The way to peace
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The markets should be worried because the economy is functioning off of debt and credit instead of savings and production.
To keep it short, the economy is only doing well because of easy money, take that away and you have nothing.
Lots of dumb erratic retail money in the market
These videos are amazing! The animation is so clear and simple. Keep it up
Inflation doesn’t just move on it’s own. It’s controlled by our fed reserve. I don’t see it coming down to the 3% range for another few years. But some people think it won’t come down at all and that this is the new norm.
buy gold nw!
End The Fed!
An inflation rate of 6% = a 6% tax on all money in circulation. Dont ever forget that. Markets cannot rise forever. At some point the economy has to stabilize or people will lose faith in the currency. Japan has reached that limit. And so has many european developed economies.
Japan is doing just fine compared to the US economy, our economy is about to implode, and nobody really knows where the bubble will pop or when, but we all know this can’t go on for much longer.
The fed and treasury are full of criminals
Move your wealth to crypto like Bitcoin or Cardano. It will hold its value long time
The way to peace
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@@JonNobleNobelOne I hope the housing prices goes down drastically, so we can buy one.
To calm down the prices the interest rate needs to go up asap but that will have negative impact on the stocks , bonds and real estate prices. It will be interesting how things play out , pour the money into things that are limited in supply
I don't think your last advice is right. Used car sales companies are at an all time high price - and income wise. If the manufacturers get their supply chains right, the resellers will drop like a fat brick. I'd rather go into value.
Yes.
i feel like i've been hearing about "tapering" for 10 years now
If they don't raise interest rates soon the US dollar is going to become the new Turkish Lira
Non sense, Turkish lira isn't world's reserve currency, Us dollar is.
Turkey is experiencing incredible inflation to the point of freaking the Turks out...
I thought Turkey had hyperinflation because they didn't lower interest rates and left them the way they were
The problem is debt levels are way too high to meaningfully raise rates. The lowering tax string has already been pulled (trump) the add liquidity already way over the top (inflation rampant), if we raise rates the outstanding debt will no longer be serviceable and the whole economy goes down with it.
Yeah, these Trump-era interest rate cuts really didn't work out, did they? \s
If the economy is great, then why am I seeing an increasing number of "office/retail space available for lease" signs, everywhere I go?
Probably because companies are shedding office space because home office is on the rise.
@@Dear_Mr._Isaiah_Deringer yeah that partially explains the offices but not the retail space. Mom and pop shops are not working from home. Inflationary forces are pushing them out of business.
@@rooooooby traditional retail has been struggling for years, even pre-pandemic, cause of online marketplaces.. the pandemic just hastened retail's decline
because you must be one of those QAnon people who only see with their lying eyes #letsgobrandon
Imagine if you owned a sandwich shop like a Subway and sold bonds to raise money, but since you can't find a buyer you just go to the back room and print of some money to buy the bond yourself. You end up devaluing all the savings that your customers have.
The way to peace
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Lol 😂
What else would you expect from fiat currency?
@Hakim Habib That's too much for the avg person to understand, that's why I stuck with the simple analogy. Luckily I've been reading the economist, and listening to lectures about economics from Sowel, Peter Schiff, Meses Institute, etc for a over a decade. Most people won't be able to follow that. Thanks though.
@Hakim Habib yea imma just agree with John instead.
We can wait till Thursday !
When are yall predicting the next crash
When will governments stop meddling in bond markets so that the yields actually mean something?
That's easy--never.
The way to peace
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never ever. It is necessary for government to have some tools to effect the economy when it is needed. Of course not like China extreme things
You do understand that bond markets are literally owned and controlled by the government right? Private sector bonds do not exist
@@jacobmoore2383 Really ? I thought government bonds and private sector entities are 2 things ?
Have to admit this is cooler to learn than anything in high school
I believe learning and mastering this will also get you further in life than anything you could learn in high school
Powell will make history books, whether as one of the best or one of the worst Fed Chairs, we are yet to see.
He's already one of the best. Literally threw the covid recession out the door, lead most foreign countries policies to mimic the fed and probably saved millions of lives worldwide. Any tapering or raise in rates will have minimal impact to if he didnt do anything during covid recession.
I still don't understand wsj explanation for tapering
With fed buying bonds with the goal of increasing money supply and keeping interest rates low why are US hedgefunds spending billions shorting bonds activley working agianst the feds efforts
With Interest rates low, this means bond prices go up. Therefore hedge funds short high priced bonds with an expectation of rising interest rates, therefore lower bond prices. So that would be, what I believe, the hedge funds strategy is.
At some point it won't matter what the hedge funds do. The Federal Reserve and only the Federal Reserve, not the government, not traders, not anyone else, can control the money supply and interest rates. If speculators want to speculate that the Fed is bluffing, by all means they can. But don't be surprised when they end up taking a nice hair cut on that.
Speculation trades are one thing but shorting to out pace the rate at which the fed is buying is another thing and is the reason short selling on the way down was made illegal in 1938 only to disastrously be made legal in 2007 causing the recession the kicker is going to be when these hedgefunds that are "to big to fail" ask for bailouts if the fed is successful in their efforts
The way to peace
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All it does is incentivize risky lending. Thats all. Free money! Cant pay it back? NO PROBLEM!!! This does fuel growth but it has to be metered or you get whats happening now. Inflation.
Real inflation is 13.6%
16-18% if you use CPI from the 80s
@@JonNobleNobelOne That's still better than some of the other countries actually.
Remember when this inflation was "transitory"?
did you really believe in that....?
it almost seems like they dont know what theyre doing . How has housing pricing boosted wealth??
Nobody knows what’s going on, MacroEconomics is voodoo.
If you bought a house for 200k five years ago and now its 450k then your wealth in terms of assets has grown, but they left out the fact its a giant bubble. low mortgage rates has everyone out chasing houses
@@Danielbboylight we were in the same boat, sub-3% mortgage rates had us looking at houses. We were approved for $700k but we took a step back and said for that much money we should be getting something better than a 100yo small house that needs work. We stopped looking and just continue to rent and invest until the market cools off.
Mortgage rates may be low but the houses are all severely overpriced. I fear people will look back at their covid home purchases years later and may be under water or barely be breaking even.
@@pkal244 are the mortages rates fixed in the US? or do they go up with the value of the house and/or the fed funds rate?
In the UK people are in deep trouble after a few years even fixed rates can go up
@@mullerstephan rates can be set as fixed or variable. Best practice is fixed of course, but some newer homeowners are attracted to the initially lower rates of variable (ends up hurting them in the long run).
So the UK government can force "fixed" rates to go up even further??
Stock market buying spree here I come. Let's goooooooo
If the Fed increases interest rate then there would be a crash in the financial market. And if the Fed don't increase interest rate then inflation would go up even more possibly 10%.
Agreed although inflation is at 6 percent per the cpi im sure its actually much higher as the Feds wont want to make themselves look that bad. They will probably try raising interest rates and we have another crash and to fight it they'll print more money as thats their only solution and inflation will get out of control.
what if Fed increases the rate to only 75 basis points?
Anytime the government produced money, it always was accompanied by inflation
Informative loved this!
Does it make sense to tighten up liquidity if supply isn't enough?
Heckuva job, Powell (wrong man at the wrong time, but that's the story of American politics from top to bottom these days).
Thank you for your very clear explanation!
It’s about time.
Crash ahead ?
I love all the fire sales the federal reserve makes for me!
Ha, they’ll keep buying
The way to peace
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Tapering is nothing. That's because tapering is still accommodative.
Fed damage controlling its pozi scheme
Good reporting! Keep it up 👍
The way to peace
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Taper away baby!👍
Soooo... all the price increases will stay up then? Since they cant do some deflation? Cause I dont want to pay 5 bucks on gas anymore
That is why I invested all my money in PoopCoin
Thank you, this was helpful!
My question is where the money comes from that the FED buys these bonds? Is it added to the American debt?
They quite literally just print the money. And yes. It gets added to our debt for future generations to deal with.
But it’s more complicated than just saying they’re doing stupid things for stupid reasons. The only reason they’re printing so much money is because of the recession created from the lockdowns. To prevent an economic downfall, they printed all this money to stimulate the economy.
So then you go back to the lockdowns. Were they necessary? Did the spread actually get slowed? If so, then they are doing the right thing by printing this money and “saving America”.
If the lockdowns were not effective, then all this money printing is the horrible symptom of horrible COVID policy.
Powell (surprisingly) is pretty good at his job. The fed can’t fix the economy. No matter what the media tells you. They’re job is simply to play the numbers and keep the public informed of what they think and what they are planning. Then the markets should react accordingly. And so this year, while it has been an extremely bumpy ride, it’s been a better ride than a Great Depression.
Only thing left is to wait and see what they outcome will be.
It is, in 2 ways. First, the money is borrowed from the Fed, which is debt that needs to be paid back. Second, the dollars we have then lose value because of there are more of them. And they're backed by nothing (most, if not all currencies are backed by nothing).
So how is them spending not under congress oversight and why there is no talk about the "ability" to pay for this programme
@@omarb1912 it is under Congress oversight. They’re just incredibly incompetent.
Congress approves all spending. Any spending bill they pass will get added to the amount of money we will spend as a country. The senate then raises the debt ceiling if they don’t already have enough to pay for it.
So then the fed has the ability to begin printing (borrowing) more money. Until the new ceiling is hit of course.
There’s been a lot of talk lately about canceling the debt ceiling because its usually lower than what is needed to pay for the bills that Congress passes.
But they just don’t understand why it’s in place. It’s meant to be a road block. Though it operates more like a hurdle today. To prevent reckless government spending. Guess our politicians just got tired of needing to be responsible.
The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place
it would seem so but they don't care as they never did. they are 'independent' from the gov and can do whatever they please as they can by law. Its the gov who will deal with the consequence of social unrest soon.
@@mullerstephan the train for significantly raising interest rates left a long time ago. If they raise markets will get spooked. If they keep them low inflation will stay high. The big picture problem is that a central entity shouldn’t be deciding what interest rates are. The market should.
@@lukitas207 very true. I wonder how long until the market gets this and until social unrest starts as people can't afford basics like food, energy, etc
@@mullerstephan I think social unrest from inflation is unlikely (at least in US) because the dollar is the world reserve currency which has allowed us to stay somewhat stable despite the loose monetary policy
@@lukitas207 for now. That status is eroding fast with China and Russia creating a new system in which they can exchange in their own currencies. Other countries are also divesting away from the dollar. Now wonder commodities are rising fast in price causing inflation everywhere…
stocks does good not on monetary policy but on fiscal policy
Realizing at the end of the video that I know all of this already >>>
The taper won't last long, just like last time. The credit markets will quickly freeze up when no one else is wanting to buy these bonds. The Fed will have to resume its QE and keep rates lower. We are basically on the same path as Japan and Sweden. Would not be surprised if during the next cycle down, we go to negative interest rates like in Japan and Sweden.
Anthony, looks like you were WRONG.
@@mastershredder2002 time will tell. We only had higher rates for 6 months, that is not very long after rates were close to zero for a decade.
before covid hadn't Yellen said she'd let inflation be above 2% for a while to compensate for the all the time it spent below this target?
I have a dozen gallons of spoiled milk can the Fed buy it from me?
The Fed scaring the market causes deflation XD no need to actually taper when you can just scare the paper hands
Worried? It’s euphoric out there.
So you mean you have to face inflation like like paying interest on the debt you owe that sounds like something as a responsible adult you would be willing to do no?
It’s working out just as he planned
So the Fed is going to stop buying debt notes with it's own debt notes ?
Again,I am investing in investment Banking and sharing with my boyfriend.Thanks !
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TIME TO PRESS THE PANIC BUTTON FOR THE NORMIES.
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You'd think the WSJ would know that indices is a word, and indexes is not a word. Especially on a piece in their "glossary" series.
The plural is both, you pedant
Money printer go brrrr
Can somebody correct me if im wrong? U.S. is having a difficulty in supplying the demand and therefore, the country is facing with high inflation.
No, we're experiencing increasing inflation because the FED has expanded the money supply faster than the economy has grown.
You are not wrong.
The issue, IMHO, is that the demand was created by massive government borrowing, plus massive Fed stimulus. At this stage, a reasonable economic policy would be to stop both. Well, the Fed is starting to slow down (starting!), but Congress is considering a massive new spending bill. This will result in continued inflation. The Fed will have to stop its QE, and will then be forced to raise interest rates quite high. That will reduce inflation, but growth will come to a standstill.
Falling demand does not stimulate inflation
There is too much demand because FED made money very cheap. Too many people buying things on credit 💳 means that items become short in supply and prices go up
The fed buys a lot of securities in the form of corporate debt. A lot of the extra cash flowing around because of this was spent buying crypto and stocks lol.
Yup
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Why does Larry Summers still get consulted on this stuff?
it is easy and fund playing using house money
Increasing interest rates doesn’t lower demand from households, they have the same demand for goods and services, it lowers household income diverting it to the banks, and the same people who run the world get wealthier through increased returns while ordinary people are poorer through increased debt servicing. Inflation or raising interest rates are the same thing to households,
Of course it lowers demand. It makes borrowing more expensive. Consumers depend on credit 💳
@@Striker50_ true, but when I said it doesn’t lower demand I meant all of the things households want and need remains. Higher interest rates removes cash from households diverting it to banks and this lowers spending. Call it demand if you will but I view it as removing household income. The effect of this is to make households poorer which is no different than the effect of inflation.
@@johnwilson180 Huge difference between want and need, and right now inflation is high because there are a lot of wants
@@Striker50_ but what about if we factor in the level of household indebtedness through credit cards and mortgages, especially as property prices have increased. Households already aren’t saving enough for retirement. Increasing interest rates solves one issue but creates two more. My point is, monetary policy is a blunt force instrument that is a short term solution that has to be fixed later.
@@johnwilson180 There's something called Mortgage REITs ( trades like stock) that allows people to invest in property. A lot of money tends to flood into these REITs when inflation starts to tick up & money is cheap to borrow. Raising interest rates gets investors to move their money back into bonds, reducing the redlining on corporate owned properties
they need to taper the paper
Fed is trying so hard to save th banks
the stimulus didn’t fuel that economic growth. Reopening the economy did that.
Im too dumb to understand this
all those people were gone by the 60s, you got to choose your path, of the many too bad you cant navigate life
Someone walked up to me and said The $100 I hold is only an Adult dollar!!
Please tell me this not true?
do we need a decentralized treasury? ooooooh if only one exsited........... . . ..... ...
Doesn't this mean we can short bonds??
How is tapering a noun?
03:40 _”We are committed to our price stability goal.”_ What a joke, for them price stability is continuously rising prices. How is that stable?!?
Stop printing money and raise interest rates. Seriously! Like Volcker.
Looking back now... inflation has continued as supply issues have confounded by war and energy especially. The Fed is slowly raising rates, with some QT plans and inflation hasn't slowed yet.
Who is the narrator I need to hire her
Seems like a dang shame that due to the cost of rising gas/fuel prices, resulting in higher shipping costs for everything from groceries to building materials the Fed declares they need to raise interest rates so many people will be unable to obtain an acceptable mortgage payment, car payment and on and on. To bad the Gov can't take control of the fuel markets to keep gas prices STABLE so they won't blow up this robust economy ... Once the prices go up at the grocery store, like they did the last time gas prices jumped above $3.00 a gallon resulting in the last recession, they never come down, even though fuel and shipping costs came down to around $2.00 a gal.
Three decades of cheap debt is the real reason people are having problems getting into the housing market. Historically normal mortgage rates would do wonders for affordability.
@@BTrain-is8ch Well, not here. Cause gov gives out almost half the value of house as gift to families to buy homes. Only with good rates we're able to afford.
Inflation is the increase in prices, devaluing the dollar has the same effect
Does anyone think this will work? Bring prices back down? Had inflation ever dropped?
In other words, the party is over.
no, they ran out of booze and someone just ran to the store to get more. In other words they won't raise rates.
The Fed is giving a diabetic candy to eat.
I understand nothing.
Yellen in 15',16' raised interest rates .025 six times over 18 months. Market thru a fit and they went back down. Market was 17,000 then. How's a market at 34,000 going to respond🤔
GAO has 10yr bond projected at 2.85 in 2028. Coincidentally, that puts interest on the national debt at just under a trillion, 940 million.
It's unlucky that we talk only about infaltion and not deflation. Even is infaltion fell to 0%, prices would still stay this high - they would just stop growing, not falling. For that we would need defaltion which is not happening..
I'm buying a high quality picture of Jerome Powell and place it on top of my print with a title 'This Printer Destroyed The Americans Dream'
WSJ doing a good job of promoting Dems .. way to go prestitutes ..
Jay Powell prints money. The U.S government says that inflation rate is 6.8 % . I am not buying it , I would considered it to be like around 18%. Price of cars went up by 25% in two years, price of house went up by 35% in two years , and foods in Mcdonalds went up like about 24% in two years. Gas price went up by 30% in two years etc. I said that because Gold and Silver in today's price is pricey compare to Gold and Silver's price in year 2018 or 2019. Jay Powell stop pirinting. Maybe we the people should use our own money.
Our money would be BTC and ETH ;). Take that sloopy Joe Biden. We could also print or manufactured our own coin and paper note back by gold and silver like switzerland did in 1800's and 1900's etc.
The Fed can save Main St or Wall St, but it can't save both.
"lower yields on long term treasury bonds can mean cheaper corporate bonds and mortgages" can someone explain this to me like I'm 5 please?
its very simple ,,,,say the yield on a treasury bond is 3% .. corporate bonds will have to compete with the yield i.e. 3% so they have to be higher than that say 4% or 5%. if the yield goes down say 1% then the corporate bonds rates will be lower as well say 2 % or 3%.
🙃 Sure do miss Paul Volcker! 😎✌🏼
Hi Larry! 🤡
Taper (noun): to wind down... does anyone see what's wrong with this?
I think for common people it is imperative to reduce spending to maintain their wealth. On One hand people stop spending and on the other, Feds reduce money supply, Inflation can be reduced very quickly.
seems like you are screaming for a recession
@@TileBitan he's right though
Stop spending? Pfft, with the money we make? Yeah right.
@@mullerstephan hes not. Didnt you learn anything of the 2008 recession in Argentina and Europe? No economy is saved through austerity
@@TileBitan Well, Austerity is different than reducing consumption. If I need 2 pairs of shoes to live comfortably l, I won't buy another one. Austerity demands you to share 1 pair of shoes among family. With increased money supply, There is huge uptick in lending which leads to overconsumption of material. If I talk for my self, I am using a mobile which is way out of my purchase power just because I got it with a zero interest loan. I should have bought a cheaper phone which would've satisfied my need but in lesser amount. Austerity would have forced me to keep using my older phone till a year or more so.
Shenanigans: 0:07 "at this point the economy is very strong"
“you can’t taper a ponzi” - max keizer
🗣🔊🔊🔊👂🏽
Michael Burry got it right.