Ray Kurzweil - Exponential Learning & Entrepreneurship
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- Опубликовано: 16 окт 2024
- "Entrepreneurship shouldn't just be an after-school club"
Inventor & futurist, Ray Kurzweil on DNA, 3D printed buildings, prediction accuracy, adjusting to change, neuroscience and innovation in schools and learning.
Talk presented at the Learning Without Frontiers Conference - January 25th 2012, London (LWF12)
www.learningwit...
I typed his words as he talked during the sequence explaining the power of his cell phone in comparison to the computer he used as a student at MIT. This section is almost always in his talks, and I never completely understood just what he was saying with his numbers. There's a lot of big numbers being thrown around in a short amount of time.
I typed his words and they actually make 100% sense and add up without contradiction.
He says: "This device is several billion times more powerful per unit currency (per dollar/per pound/per euro) than the computer I used as a student at MIT in 1965: cost 10s of millions of dollars and took up half a building
This is a million times cheaper and is several thousand times more powerful and a hundred thousand times smaller.That's a several billion fold increase of the amount of computation (and communication) per dollar or per pound
since I was a student.
We'll do it again (because the rate of doubling is getting slightly faster every year) in another 25 years. This will again be another billion times more powerful (per pound). It will another hundred thousand times smaller; it will be the size of a blood cell."
So, he's saying his cell phone did 3 things (not just one or two things): it became a million times cheaper; it became several thousand times more powerful; and it also became one hundred thousand times smaller. Extrapolating using the Law of Accelerating Returns.. you get blood cell sized devices in 25 years AND another several thousand times more powerful AND are a million times cheaper.
This paints a conclusion when you put it all together: for the price of a cell phone today, we can afford one million nanobots which are each several thousand times more powerful than the cell phone we currently have.
Immortality, in other words.
(btw, also note that there's a fourth thing that happens. The time difference between the cell phone and the computer he compares it to at MIT in 1965 is almost a 50 year difference; but, he said we will experience the same transition in 25 more years from now, not 50 years from now. So the fourth thing that happens is the rate of the rate at which technology improves gets faster.)
Wow!
Thank you Ray for all your futuristic contributions and humanistic accomplishments. Please don't worry you'll be back in time to take advantage of all your singularity dreams.
Ray is my hero. He is so far ahead of most people.
He' the visionary we need in this day and age.
I believe this video is a game changer. What is sad is how few physicians are not liberal enough in their thinking to realize it. ReCon Surgical is committed to changing that!
Thanks to LWF for the video.
Money has been an easy metric because it's physical (or started out as). We could not track behavior or value exchange outside of money exchanging hands for goods and services. Now we can do that easily by tracking mouse clicks, behavior and choices on the internet, app store, amazon purchases, in store purchases when you give them your postal code etc.
Moving forward, value exchange will take many forms because you will be able to track these forms of value more effectively and efficiently.
Thanks for sharing this! Can't wait to see what the future brings
You've been listening to de garis? I love him too. Did you see the interviews on rationalfuture's channel?
I read a fascinating article about "Forced Artificial Scarcity" and how business already use it in the form of digital goods like ebooks, where people can potentially freely access both copies of ebooks and digital scan files of paper books but many still buy them. Its was: "5 Reasons The Future Will Be Ruled By B.S." By:David Wong
"Truth is the most valuable thing we have. So let us economize it."
-Mark Twain
2) The problem is that a complete human ethical code does not exist. Not even artificial inteligence will be able to say if it is more fair to want a PC or a TV. Ethical codes were not created to deal with all possible human actions, a complete ethical code would be something very unethical for any resonable person.
I hear what you are saying and somewhat agree, but feel it's not just about corrupt or ruthless leaders - as sane (well, relatively) people we would have to take a long hard think about what happens when everyone (this includes, for example, severely mental ill people, children and teenagers and any other person with impaired faculties) can just print out any kind of, say, weapon or drug?
True, There would have to be laws/limitations on the devices themselves. Like Ray always says, Technology is a double edged sword.
critique, comment and questions going from top to bottom of your comment.
1. who are you answering ?
2. processing power*
3. they as in the people or the printers ?
4.is the second "they" also the same as the first "they" ?
5. "they" (if printers) will not be able to produce antimatter, bosons, cosmic strings, (only listing tangible objects) the list is endless.
6. will a person with huge debt and 0 cash be able to afford one ?
7.I think people will be just fine if they choose to not have one.
@gamepro94z You're right on that point. Once the technology to deal with aging and most diseases is streamlined, the life expectancy of the average first-world person will go up dramatically.
what's that sound !?? 0:36
Oh yes. Don't forget: intelligent and knowledge is the most powerful weapon. So intelligent enhancement will be left for the few very rich and above upper income getting people who will be ready to spend millions in order to be genius or to have an ability to learn and grasp knowledge after instantaneously.
I like this idea.
what makes you think money has anything to do with technology?
@eduTouY
He may also take into consideration software side, GDP, inflation...
Mr Kurzweil, you mention the 'expedience' between invention and product and our 'accelerated' pace. I beg to differ...
The Singularity Institute is a knee-jerk AI reaction that's taken 80 years to react to Einstein's equation of E=MC^2 and the convergence of technology and biology.
If we're so advanced, why is it we're not opening up with society about the Matrix being real? That 'Source Code' holds everything together in energy? And that humans are quantum computers and time travel is real?
There are places that haven't had the industrial revolution yet. this exponentiality applies if you are an MIT student or alumni.
Stem cell research laws in the UK are the most open in the world and there is a research centre at Cambridge currently doing most of the research he's referring to. America - legalize your cells!
1) The only way I can see this happen is if you put electrodes in people's brain that can translate human's subjective preferences into a single numerical value (value would be according to the urgence of the need) and throw this number into a database where all preferences of all people are compared with each other and put in order of value. The database would need a complete ethical code where all possible human preferences are given a number that quantifyes how ethical each preference is.
Ray Kurzweil can draw a graph of an exponetial function. Ray Kurzweil has seen the movie The Social Network. Ray Kurzweil: "Mr Gorbachov tear down this wall!"
Yes. For the older one you pay X and you get 2x power. For the new one you get two times or 4X power but pay the same price X. if you go back to the older model price, you get that the new model now coast half X to get 2X Power. Simple ;).
He's not changing the world or running big corporations. He's an author, akin to Arthur C. Clarke. What are you talking about.
AI is still far from becoming reality, and we dont even know if it is possible yet. But even then, scarcity can not be eliminated.
Scarcity is not a small ammount of something. It means the people can think in more ends for resources than they have the means of achieving those ends. Unless you think there is a limit for human ingenuity, innovation, creativity and imagination, scarcity will always be an economic fact to be considered.
I love ray with a passion but i don't think he answered that last question to well
One thing I'd ask De Garis: The intended, "inevitable" extinction of intelligent human life is a by-product of political, social power. But why would a super intelligence want power? Is that in itself being intelligent?
Create abundance? what a dream...
time to wake up.
@39:22 The only way for a computer to generate an artificial human intelligence would be to transcribe the genetic code into binary and have a computer process the functions.
They will be able to manage things better than we can today, because they will be so much more intelligent. We are extremely compared to this kind of intelligence.
20:17. Leaving a note.
yea, that logo isn't WAY TOO LOUD AT ALL!! >:(
Did you ever hear the old TED Talk intro? It would destroy your ears.
Now you just have to wait until the technology improves to the point where it's cheaper and a million times improved the original products.
Just like cell phones.
Bureaucracies move slower than glaser's and are more destructive.
Exponential this, exponential that.
Where's Chomsky's part dammit...
okay, let's!
Better than that. Lets make technology so advanced that it takes death and our one planet living space limitation out of the picture.
That is one possibility, the other is that we BECOME skynet.
But since we have ruthless people in power they won't let this happen.
I discovered one thing: if I close the video now, his face and all the crazy shit he talks about just disappears. Magic! :-)
the outro popped my eardrums and killed my cat.
Anyone who tries to stop this from happening is a fool. Work with it and become intelligent or be left behind, your choice.
Now we just have to be a million dollars rich
@suamaegorda its not going to take 100 years trust me if you make it past the next 20 years you will live forever
I don't understand why your comment got 35 likes other than the fact that I just gave it 35th like (because saying 34 likes sounded boring when I wrote my comment so I decided to like it to make the number divisible by 5)..
Anyway... Yeah.... Where was I? Oh yes.. Make money out of the picture.. I don't even understand what you mean. You mean draw money? Clearly you don't mean that because otherwise you would just say draw.... This comment must end now because I reached 500 character limit.
Exactly!?!
yeah it's too loud, but at least it's not a disgrace to humanity like the TED music.
in fact it has a very pleseant sound.
Accounting for all consumer behavior in one centralized database is completely unnecessary when money already do this job effectively. It would take a huge effort, lots and lots of human and natural resources would be consumed to track and account for all choices in this ever growing and extremely dynamic database, as consumer preferences can change in seconds. If it was possible, the socialist countries would have done it already .
What is wrong with you? Kurzweil makes predictions about the future... how is anything at all you said relevant or applicable?
This is great stuff but his descriptions are extrapolating way beyond what is really going on. I think what he isn't accounting for the problems that are created with new technologies and structures and that most of the human race still doesn't have access to all these fantasmagorical creations.
*robotic cleansing...
Hahaha. Ah, the shit you guys come up with.
55:00-56:03 The Mark of the Beast buddy..You will not be able to buy, sell, nor trade without it.
:)
We use money to meet our biological needs, I think one day that will be possible
0 people haven't figured out how to learn exponentially.... er... wait...
Yes yes yes. I have been warned by a crazy person on the internet who is making baseless assumptions.
These are baseless conspiracy theory assumptions. Cell phones were once extremely expensive and ungainly, and they were also limited to the wealthiest of people. As technology improved it was more cheaply produced and easily distributed.
Corporate interest is to make money, and you can bet A LOT of people are going to want to buy augmentations and things will most likely progress like they did with cell phones.
Yea, it's not that bad sound-wise. TED is a straight-up Danny Elfman stylistic ripoff. :P
and of course, industry, corporations and people in power will let that happen ...
Non-critique, Attention seeking and trolling going from top to bottom in regards to your comment.
1. Hello
2. Potatoes are delicious.
3. Stop bugging people who talk to youtube!
4. Your mother.
5. Alienware is now losing in sales to Allahware - a computer technology available for just affordable 599.99 prayers.
6. The bear will attack you if you question Fanta drinks about GTA 5
7. 7 bullet points fit in perfectly within 500 limit.
Hahaha, with the exception that no one is hauling you away for "speaking out" against the NWO! Please please please... are you serious? Hahahaha. Another exception is that no one has been talking about forcing you to augment yourself.
But you'll want to, if you want to be competitive.
Or live in the equivalent of an Amish settlement. Nothing wrong with that, if that's what you want.
Anyway, no, you're not some noble crusader against the Nazis. Keyboard warrior more like. Safe and sound.
Skynet bitches! Skynet! :)