Hey guys, if you're interested in the course I mention at 6:00 it's Introduction to Stock Analysis and can be found here: newmoney.education/ Thanks to everyone who supports my channel by checking out the courses (also we have a free starter guide there too, if you're on the fence). :)
Great video as allways. Been following Rivian since the IPO hype and it's definitely been a rollercoaster. While the future of electric vehicles is bright, Rivian's stock price seems to be disconnected from their current production capacity. Maybe they'll turn things around, but for now this feels like a cautionary tale for chasing hot IPOs.
You should talk about how Baidu is the one AI stock thats about to explode due to its auto taxis being fully implemented in over dozen Chinese cities, ahead of Tesla.
Certainly I have, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Jessica Lee Horst” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I'm actually one of those people, though not big numbers. Once the reviews of the R1S came out and they were unanimously positive, I put 1K down around $22/share. I Figured that ~75% down was near the bottom. It kept dropping and got down to $10. I did another 1K to lower my cost basis, and thankfully am up overall because of it. At the time of typing, i'm up 21% total.
@@MaslinMonty not a great a pick, very risky, also I hope you understand the concept of market capitalization, because at 22 dollars a share Rivian would have been valued over 20 billion which is way over valued
The video shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how difficult it is to scale up a car company to mass production- Tesla is the only company to successfully do so in the western world in the last 50 years- Tesla was not profitable until the mode 3, and Rivian likely won’t be until their second, cheaper suv comes out. They started with an expensive car, just like Tesla with the Model S. Rivian was very brilliant starting with a combo SUV / truck- these are both BY FAR the most popular vehicles in the US. Rivian will be very profitable when their 50k or less vehicle is released, just like Tesla.
People don't realize just how much money car manufacturing and design requires. Its typical for a new car to cost an established company several billion. Now factor in all new facilities, factories, marketing a new brand , R&D of new vehicles and its not hard to see why they burn through so much cash.
Unless you are doing very exclusive cars or you are china that for decades slowly ate the chain of values from the bottom up, from manufacturing screws, to full fledge cars. It is nearly impossible to jump into that market
Due purely to safety test requirements. It's regulatory capture at play. A new car could cost $15k and get 50mpg if it didn't also need to survive being dropped from orbit with 5 more cars stacked on top.
At some point a few years ago, tech companies (including EV makers) figured out it's easier to sell things to investors than it is to sell things to customers. Just create hype with mockups, prototypes, and of course communications materials. If you actually make things in the real world you have a harder challenge, but your hype machine will probably sell more products than you have, and there's no need for them to cost less than they sell for, as your goal isn't to make money from the customers anyway. "This is fine" vibes for the initial VCs and management since they can (at least partially) cash out when selling to normal investors, and the VC managers can always claim a win even if their customers didn't make money because, well, look at the hype, it could have.
"it's easier to sell things to investors than it is to sell things to customers" This is not a mystery. You need huge amounts of capital to start manufacturing cars.
I think if cars are good eventually it would level out but cash burning need to die down quite a bit. When I just think of human ingenuity and engineering prowess needed to build Rivian it's actually quite impressive. Despite challenges I'm rooting for the company.
You should really do a video comparing 2016 Tesla to current Rivian. I’ve been holding Tesla since 2014 and recently bought Rivian at $11 this year. After following Tesla’s story for a decade this story is eerily similar. Two years out from their mass market vehicle launch, retooling manufacturing while keeping production steady, securing cash to fund the expansion, it is straight out of Tesla’s playbook from 2016. It was all doom and gloom for Tesla back then, but if you took the bait you missed out on a gigantic gain. The catchy headline sells clicks, but this really isn’t paying attention to the positive indicators at all.
I agree, the future could certainly be bright. I hope I was clear that I don't have anything against the company, or even the stock. I was more making comment around the ridiculousness of the IPO hype vs underlying performance. :)
I think almost everyone who wanted an EV has one. While it may be an interesting topic, who is planning to buy an EV in the next year who doesn’t already own one? Market share is going to flat line unless the governments force people to buy them. Governments who were planning to mandate EVs like California are not backing away for that position.
will you sell them now or hold? I'm in the same position as you, while I have no doubt they'll do good long term, I'm quite pessimistic for this year and next.
@@Robert-fx3ngI am a bear on Rivian, but it is false to say everyone who wants an EV has one, polling shows something like 40 to 50% of the public is interested or open to buying an EV in the future, the big things preventing that are interest rates and that Current EV’s are too expensive for most people’s tastes even those who want an EV,
Nice video, Brandon! I'm a RVN shareholder, as part of a diversified portfolio of mainly global and tech ETFs, and some individual stock picks. I got into Rivian deliberately late; I hold about 40 shares at an average price of $17.43. I'm down 7% including the foreign exchange impact (I'm based in Spain and buy in Euros). For me it's a waiting game at this price, but I feel sorry for those who got in on the early hype. You're right, $150bn was crazy, but it was just another example of post-Covid financial madness. Keep up the good work! 😎👍🏻
Same. I bought RIVN at $13. I'm currently up about 8%. Ultimately it's a high risk investment I'm willing to play the waiting game with, but I'm also fine if it doesn't pay off in the long run.
Difference is Tesla burned much less money and had a first mover advantage(which can only exist once) in the market. Rivian Burns more than a billion a Quarter, Tesla even in their worst days didn’t burn that much
@@hs5312 Not to mention that Tesla started out in an incredibly favorable market condition where inflation was low, interest rate was practically zero, practically zero competition in the EV space, and Uncle Sam was throwing money left and right into renewables. Time has changed, most of that are gone now (and so will the tax credit if Trump wins this December). And a lot of people think that the R2/3 platform will save Rivian; if they can't even make positive margin on high-end models, how would they make money on low end models?
It’s not just EVs. All car manufacturers are struggling right now and it’s due to high interest rates. 80% of all car purchases are financed and there are few people that want to pay double digit rates when buying a new car
It isn’t only rates. Rates have been this high in the past, and people still bought cars. The problem is that prices are too high. The car companies got greedy, and buyers are not interested.
Because legacy makers are having trouble making great ev product with different powertrain. This is probably cheaper for them while getting something they know for sure works
VW has a lot of trouble making software for their cars. They bought good sw of a new player that desperately needs money, even from a competitor. Wether rivian succeeds or fails VW extracts sw, knowledge and longterm money out of it.
not a good sign that Porsche is now working with Google instead of VWs own software engineers, I don't understand how VW throws so much money at this and stuff can't make something usable tbh, I think android automotive as the base is the right call tho, especially since it would offer great compatibility with existing apps and no additional work or partnerships needed with Spotify or whatever
The funny part is the only reason amazon makes money today is they realised half way that setting up servers is a pain, so they turned it into a service and its literally a every giving cash cow now. AWS has the highest profit margin in the entire conglomerate. Maybe if rivian also makes some realisation in a untapped market it can make it big, but if it only depends on cars it will be a long long journey.
153 billion valuation makes no sense at all, it's just investors pumping the company for quick returns rather than trying to create a sustainable car company
The big mistake people made was thinking Rivian was the new Tesla. Tesla is the new Tesla. Rivian has many many things missing that Tesla had from day one, which was 16 years ago...
Tesla killed itself with the cybertruck and Elon fully backing a political party that thinks global warming isn’t real. Rivian actually makes quality cars. Just goes to show investors and customers are not the same.
I don’t understand how people can afford $100k trucks like they are nothing. We have stealth wealth and retired at 49 but I’d never dream of buying a car in that price range. My current car is a paid off 2013 Prius I paid $26k for and the next one will be similar. I don’t get it.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks
VW didnt invest in Rivian to help them, they paid to bankrupt them and keep some of the patents. Although it seems like short term it will help them, it really wont, as now they have to comply with deadlines to get the rest of the money from VW, while still delivering the amazon order, which they are failing already. Its a shame because they do have good cars, but product =/= company.
Car manufacturing needs to achieve scale to become profitable. If you reach this scale, it means your product has been fully adopted by the market. Investors are betting that Rivian will reach this scale soon, rather than focusing on immediate profitability.
About a decade ago, a put a few hundred dollars of Tesla stock in my roth ira. I had had to pull it all out when I lost my job and had bills to pay. Today that Tesla stock would be just shy of $50,000. I let FOMO impact my decision to buy $1,000 worth of Rivian shares during the IPO. Thats the lesson Rivian taught me. Never letting FOMO impact my logic again.
Why did you do a valuation with the IPO price as opposed to today's price? I want to know if it's a good investment today when so much capital has already been sunk into the company.
(Not a rivian shareholder) this company seems to be investing most of their money back into their product which is amazing they are thinking of the bigger picture kind of like bezos with his company and how he cornered the entire market while losing billions and in the end he got his trillions. Seems like rivian is trying to corner the market with quality products maybe not a bad buy considering the price and as a Californian I see them all over the place.
I've heard that index funds and ETFs provide diversified stock market exposure while spreading risk. I have over $800K in savings; What's the most effective strategy to allocate funds in my portfolio and generate profits?
Yes, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist
Certainly I have, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Jessica Lee Horst” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
This Jessica lady looks great.i looked her name up. We have about $300,000 in IRA and 401(k) and 403(b) assets. Is that something she can manage? I already left a message, what’s the response timing like?
The real problem for this company and for the entire American industry is the declined industry capability. It takes 10 years to launch a new model in USA while in China, they pull out a new model every 6 month.
I had a friend invest everything in Fisker because he had another friend convince him to. I told him at the time he took the position that I wouldn't do that, but he's about 15 years older and I didn't think it was my place to give him advice. His position is down over 99% at this point. I feel bad for him and his family and hope he can recover.
Very unfortunate considering rivian has an awesome team, the trucks are fantastic in basically every way, and their corporate culture is way less toxic than tesla. They're like Tesla's nice sibling. If they can get through low times they'll establish themselves as a major brand, mark my words
I’m a newer investor and bought a lot of rivian at 12-13$ a share. When it soared to 25 I dumped all of it and haven’t owned any since. Thought abt buying when it tanked but I have absolutely 0 faith in EV industry
Unfortunately, Rivian is going to have to cut prices to make a dent in the market. Which will hurt share prices short term. Coupled with tight consumers right now, I don't think Rivian's short-term financial future is bright. Great product that needs a stronger economy to thrive.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly. because i have saved up a large sum of money don't want it to go to waste looking to get into stocks and also looking for other viable means to hedge against the inflation
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
Lol ya I was wondering why he highlighted OCI when talking about revenue and net loss when talking about cash flows 🤔 hoping that was just an editing error
Even buying now would be crazy. People are getting FOMO thinking they're going to miss the next Tesla buying opportunity, but even if they manage to somehow turn things around there will be plenty of time to jump in without missing much of the gains. It's only risk right now.
Survival of the company depends on whether they can reduce the cost per unit through experience and economies of scale. Without getting the direct cost well below sale price, there is no possibility of avoiding bankruptcy.
They make cars way fancier than they need to be, including EVs. Whatever company makes a basic EV that has a decent range without all of the fancy trimmings…wait, the Chinese have already done that.
4:39 For all the rivian investors that got triggered. You need to rethink your financial investment decisions, and accept the present situation. you should've known by now Rivian's situation and not try to ignore the obvious. If a friend comes to you, and asks you to invest in their business, you'll ask a lot about the business before you invest. Same goes for any stock. Me personally I'm heavily invested in Rivian as i see great potential, but i know the risks it brings with it.
Both Lucid and Rivian suffered 57%-89% nose dive for the last 5 years. Doesn’t mean their product is bad, it just mean new technology market adoption require deep investment pocket. Tesla, BYD, Stellantis, etc have much deeper pockets to tough it out. Check back on this topic next 5 years and see who is the winner
Apparently the product is amazing, we’ll see if they can handle the business side of it too. I hope they get things moving in the right direction. I really like the design, adventure brand, and engineering of the product.
The thing is thought that Rivian makes fantastic products. Most people who own one say that it is one of the best purchases they have ever made. It has been a tough year for the legacy OEMs as well... for Rivian profitability is possible in the near future. Not only do I want them to keep going because I am an investor myself, but also because I really believe that they are making an excellent product and really hope to see more Rivians on the road.
Of course, customer is gonna love their Rivian products. They literally sold you a truck that cost $120k to make at just $80k. It's like an new type of modern company who doesn't need to make a profit, and can just ask unlimited money from investors whenever they want
Rivian certainly needs to streamline production and drastically reduce costs (it has done that in some capacity recently by retooling its factory, but it needs to trim a lot more off the cost). But one thing a lot of financial RUclipsrs like yourself forget is that no business is risk-free, especially for startups, and double-especially for startups joining an established industry, and triple-especially for startups looking to disrupt that industry by changing the model and core product (Tesla definitely led this effort, by the way, so don't get me wrong). Unfortunately, to compete in this space, you have to burn cash on the front end and figure out profitability as you go. Because it hasn't been done in 100 years (Tesla being the only exception, a company that happens to be run by a super-genius), there's not really a formula for getting this done. In other words getting to profitability, even with a really solid product, is damn near impossible. However, I think RJ Scaringe is a pretty smart guy, and the Rivian brand is strong with great new products announced, so they just might get it done (the VW deal definitely bought them some time).
The problem is that if you buy now with the risk it is under $15 a share. The moment they break even or post a tiny profit it will be $50 + a share. They have layed over 15% of people off and retooled factory to cut vehicle production cost by 35%. The next two quarters will be interesting.
If it continues to grow at the rate that it has the last 3 weeks it'll be over $20 2 weeks from now. But it will definitely be worth a lot more in 2 years. They're not going bankrupt. They're about take off
I'll admit, i got caught up in the hype of Rivian, but man im so glad the market priced me out of it for a whole year. Glad i dodged this bullet, it just sucks i wasn't able to dodge Lucid.
0:14 The VW plot is 0 shifted, scale is 2.50 per tick vertically and starts at 10 or 12.50. This is in contrast to all of the other plots in this serires that do origin at 0 **edited to remove an unwanted timestamp link
Starting out a decade back Tesla was also in the same boat heading towards bankruptcy. Tesla however continued to manage funding till it delivered mass production Model 3s and started making money . Rivian hopes to do so too , however the challenge is to produce a great quality mass production vehicle plus is there a market for it anymore ?
Rivian fanboi share holders will never sell. Highly emotional beings and the only research they’ve probably done is how cool it’ll make them look driving a rivian.
@@hs5312 it’s not impossible. Tesla did it and many companies have done it. It’s not easy though because there’s a lot of competition especially coming from China
@@13965082 Tesla never got even as close to burning as much money as Rivian or Lucid are now while trying to get to profitability. The numbers just aren't the same. Rivian and Lucid are cash incinerators like nothing I've seen before, it's incredible
The problem with having an electric vehicle is most people think you need a home. I have plenty of friends that live out here in New York that make great money. But don’t own a home. Hence, why they won’t buy an electric vehicle.
Accept that their legacy auto makers in the EV market, whereas the original auto market didn’t have already established players that can out last most startups
my dad invested in this, i had never heard of rivian at that time and turns out he lost a lot on it. kinda sucks couldve bought nvidia at the same time and be up x fold
I kind of blows my mind that people are buying these expensive cars that I would imagine need specialts to work on, when Rivian goes under will people be able to get parts for those cars anymore? Let alone if something else goes wrong, and they are produced anymore and not a lot were to begin with, scary to think how much it would cost to fix at that point
Great video, its easy to get drawn in when the hype is going. not really analyzing but act on fomo. i thought Rivian was the next big thing in EV im glad i missed the ipo..
This is a very perfunctory analysis. It can be summed up as “I don’t know how to value start-ups, so I don’t buy them. And Rivian is down 90%.” Those seem to be the only salient points.
These new EV car companies start out selling expensive vehicles first and then maybe cheaper ones. When Toyota, Honda, Datsun, Subaru, Mazda, and Hyundai started selling cars, they started selling cheap cars and grew because customers thought they were reliable and affordable.
That is because EV’s are so new that manufacturing process has not been developed enough to build those cars cheaply enough and the supply chain for EV’s is still being developed as well also affected cost. When there is more experience and the processes are better refined, EV’s will be a lot more affordable but the thing the players in the EV market at that point will just be Tesla and the legacy automakers. All of these startups will be broke by the time EV’s get to be fully mainstream
the byd comparison is kinda weird given that their vehicles have massive tariffs on them. not really an example of a car manufacturer failing to run a business properly
Since they announced their cooperation with monster Volkswagen AG and got fresh money from there, they grew a little bit, but trust is gone. Hope, it is going to run again.
You have to note the fact that there was a LARGE partner investor, Jeff Bezos (Amazon). He purchased around 17% of the company in 2019 and set up the exclusivity deal with an order for 100,000 vehicles set over 10 years. In 2023, Rivian requested a cancellation of the exclusivity deal. They wanted the capability to sell their vans to everyone. Amazon agreed, Rivian was ecstatic. The next week, the order was canceled for three remainder of the 100,000 vans. Another huge financial blow. I can say this. I have driven one of these trucks, they are WAY nicer than a Tesla, their battery takes you further, and it is a real truck. This company isn’t going anywhere, so I’d invest while it’s cheap. Just my opinion.
So Amazon wanted to order another 100,000 cars over the existing order of 100,000 or did they just cancel the existing order. I heard Amazon had around 10,000 Rivian Vans on Road, another 90,000 was pending deliveries.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Charlotte Miller.
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
How could a company that sold 150 cars with a $150b market cap ever make sense? Had Rivian driven sales up from 150 to a million a year, the market cap still wouldn’t make any sense. Had it been a s successful as Tesla there would due two tesla to share the market. In other words had everything perfectly well the market cap would not have gone up, The very definition of priced to perfection.
There had been no successful new car company for 50 years until Tesla arrived. Even Tesla went through production hell before coming out with positive earnings on their 4th car model, 7 years after selling their first car. Investors somehow think that this success can now be replaced by other companies in 1/4 of the time.
It's called a market over saturation of a product almost no one wanted propped up by governments. Too many manufacturers making a product for too few people...supply & demand
EV trucks arent for mass market. They cut into work time (hold on boss let me go charge the truck for an hour), have crazy upfront costs, and the batteries make them basically disposable after 8 years. Its not that deep.
Great video as allways. Been following Rivian since the IPO hype and it's definitely been a rollercoaster. While the future of electric vehicles is bright, Rivian's stock price seems to be disconnected from their current production capacity. Maybe they'll turn things around, but for now this feels like a cautionary tale for chasing hot IPOs.
The automotive industry is fighting against the used automotive industry. Electrification, anti-right to fix practices, and the ever increasing price of new cars is killing the automotive industry with customers scrambling for cheaper fixable used cars.
I invested some on this company, I think they will be very profitable. We are electrifying everything and I think they can diversify into other products.
Hey guys, if you're interested in the course I mention at 6:00 it's Introduction to Stock Analysis and can be found here:
newmoney.education/
Thanks to everyone who supports my channel by checking out the courses (also we have a free starter guide there too, if you're on the fence). :)
Great video as allways. Been following Rivian since the IPO hype and it's definitely been a rollercoaster. While the future of electric vehicles is bright, Rivian's stock price seems to be disconnected from their current production capacity. Maybe they'll turn things around, but for now this feels like a cautionary tale for chasing hot IPOs.
You should talk about how Baidu is the one AI stock thats about to explode due to its auto taxis being fully implemented in over dozen Chinese cities, ahead of Tesla.
I think Baidu with its robo taxi and 13 PE is the star here.
Certainly I have, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Jessica Lee Horst” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
90% of Rivian investors have never actually looked at the balance sheet
Probably true haha
Talking to people who invest Rivian your comment is 100% true
I'm actually one of those people, though not big numbers. Once the reviews of the R1S came out and they were unanimously positive, I put 1K down around $22/share. I Figured that ~75% down was near the bottom. It kept dropping and got down to $10. I did another 1K to lower my cost basis, and thankfully am up overall because of it. At the time of typing, i'm up 21% total.
They’re likely those that bought into GameStop and Doge Coin after the hype 😂
@@MaslinMonty not a great a pick, very risky, also I hope you understand the concept of market capitalization, because at 22 dollars a share Rivian would have been valued over 20 billion which is way over valued
and the stock goes from $11 to $18 as soon as this is published lmao
Look up "dead cat bounce."
And the CEO just dumped $1M worth of shares :)
The video shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how difficult it is to scale up a car company to mass production- Tesla is the only company to successfully do so in the western world in the last 50 years- Tesla was not profitable until the mode 3, and Rivian likely won’t be until their second, cheaper suv comes out. They started with an expensive car, just like Tesla with the Model S. Rivian was very brilliant starting with a combo SUV / truck- these are both BY FAR the most popular vehicles in the US. Rivian will be very profitable when their 50k or less vehicle is released, just like Tesla.
Maybe they would generate more demand if they offered CarPlay and android auto in their vehicles
@@deditor382- does your theory account for all the competitors also catching up and releasing theirs?
People don't realize just how much money car manufacturing and design requires.
Its typical for a new car to cost an established company several billion. Now factor in all new facilities, factories, marketing a new brand , R&D of new vehicles and its not hard to see why they burn through so much cash.
Unless you are doing very exclusive cars or you are china that for decades slowly ate the chain of values from the bottom up, from manufacturing screws, to full fledge cars. It is nearly impossible to jump into that market
Due purely to safety test requirements. It's regulatory capture at play. A new car could cost $15k and get 50mpg if it didn't also need to survive being dropped from orbit with 5 more cars stacked on top.
10:38 The light at the end of a tunnel could also be an oncoming train
Bug zapper on God's porch.
At some point a few years ago, tech companies (including EV makers) figured out it's easier to sell things to investors than it is to sell things to customers. Just create hype with mockups, prototypes, and of course communications materials. If you actually make things in the real world you have a harder challenge, but your hype machine will probably sell more products than you have, and there's no need for them to cost less than they sell for, as your goal isn't to make money from the customers anyway.
"This is fine" vibes for the initial VCs and management since they can (at least partially) cash out when selling to normal investors, and the VC managers can always claim a win even if their customers didn't make money because, well, look at the hype, it could have.
"Get in, go public, get out"
The Silicon Valley anthem
> few years ago
More like 2 decades ago.
"it's easier to sell things to investors than it is to sell things to customers"
This is not a mystery. You need huge amounts of capital to start manufacturing cars.
I think if cars are good eventually it would level out but cash burning need to die down quite a bit. When I just think of human ingenuity and engineering prowess needed to build Rivian it's actually quite impressive. Despite challenges I'm rooting for the company.
their cars are actually good. competiting in EV is indeed hard
You should really do a video comparing 2016 Tesla to current Rivian. I’ve been holding Tesla since 2014 and recently bought Rivian at $11 this year. After following Tesla’s story for a decade this story is eerily similar. Two years out from their mass market vehicle launch, retooling manufacturing while keeping production steady, securing cash to fund the expansion, it is straight out of Tesla’s playbook from 2016. It was all doom and gloom for Tesla back then, but if you took the bait you missed out on a gigantic gain.
The catchy headline sells clicks, but this really isn’t paying attention to the positive indicators at all.
I agree, the future could certainly be bright. I hope I was clear that I don't have anything against the company, or even the stock. I was more making comment around the ridiculousness of the IPO hype vs underlying performance. :)
I think almost everyone who wanted an EV has one. While it may be an interesting topic, who is planning to buy an EV in the next year who doesn’t already own one? Market share is going to flat line unless the governments force people to buy them. Governments who were planning to mandate EVs like California are not backing away for that position.
will you sell them now or hold? I'm in the same position as you, while I have no doubt they'll do good long term, I'm quite pessimistic for this year and next.
Can't believe you are dissing the stock new money, some of these dudes are down 90%. They definitely don't want to hear this 😂
@@Robert-fx3ngI am a bear on Rivian, but it is false to say everyone who wants an EV has one, polling shows something like 40 to 50% of the public is interested or open to buying an EV in the future, the big things preventing that are interest rates and that Current EV’s are too expensive for most people’s tastes even those who want an EV,
Literally best car on the planet
Rated best customer loyalty of all cars
Nice video, Brandon!
I'm a RVN shareholder, as part of a diversified portfolio of mainly global and tech ETFs, and some individual stock picks. I got into Rivian deliberately late; I hold about 40 shares at an average price of $17.43. I'm down 7% including the foreign exchange impact (I'm based in Spain and buy in Euros). For me it's a waiting game at this price, but I feel sorry for those who got in on the early hype. You're right, $150bn was crazy, but it was just another example of post-Covid financial madness.
Keep up the good work! 😎👍🏻
That bag about to become much much heavier
Same. I bought RIVN at $13. I'm currently up about 8%. Ultimately it's a high risk investment I'm willing to play the waiting game with, but I'm also fine if it doesn't pay off in the long run.
i remember Telsa was in the same position a decade ago, burning cash ,no profit, and even went to apple with an offer to buy the company
Difference is Tesla burned much less money and had a first mover advantage(which can only exist once) in the market. Rivian Burns more than a billion a Quarter, Tesla even in their worst days didn’t burn that much
Bezos will bail them out. He's hell bent on competing with Elon on cars, space, etc.
@@hs5312 Not to mention that Tesla started out in an incredibly favorable market condition where inflation was low, interest rate was practically zero, practically zero competition in the EV space, and Uncle Sam was throwing money left and right into renewables. Time has changed, most of that are gone now (and so will the tax credit if Trump wins this December). And a lot of people think that the R2/3 platform will save Rivian; if they can't even make positive margin on high-end models, how would they make money on low end models?
I like these newer videos where old content doesn't get rehashed, thanks for listening.
In.
It’s not just EVs. All car manufacturers are struggling right now and it’s due to high interest rates. 80% of all car purchases are financed and there are few people that want to pay double digit rates when buying a new car
It isn’t only rates. Rates have been this high in the past, and people still bought cars. The problem is that prices are too high. The car companies got greedy, and buyers are not interested.
I still don't get why VW would drop that much cash for software access. That's a lot of dough.
Just hope they will modify it for physical buttons
Because legacy makers are having trouble making great ev product with different powertrain. This is probably cheaper for them while getting something they know for sure works
VW has a lot of trouble making software for their cars. They bought good sw of a new player that desperately needs money, even from a competitor. Wether rivian succeeds or fails VW extracts sw, knowledge and longterm money out of it.
Because vw has one of the worse software out their when it comes to evs
not a good sign that Porsche is now working with Google instead of VWs own software engineers, I don't understand how VW throws so much money at this and stuff can't make something usable tbh, I think android automotive as the base is the right call tho, especially since it would offer great compatibility with existing apps and no additional work or partnerships needed with Spotify or whatever
Amazon was losing money in their first 20 years! Rivian is making great cars and I hope they make it!
Incredibly stupid statement and comparison
The funny part is the only reason amazon makes money today is they realised half way that setting up servers is a pain, so they turned it into a service and its literally a every giving cash cow now. AWS has the highest profit margin in the entire conglomerate.
Maybe if rivian also makes some realisation in a untapped market it can make it big, but if it only depends on cars it will be a long long journey.
Amazon offers a service not a product, big difference
153 billion valuation makes no sense at all, it's just investors pumping the company for quick returns rather than trying to create a sustainable car company
The big mistake people made was thinking Rivian was the new Tesla. Tesla is the new Tesla. Rivian has many many things missing that Tesla had from day one, which was 16 years ago...
Tesla is the old Tesla.
Tesla killed itself with the cybertruck and Elon fully backing a political party that thinks global warming isn’t real. Rivian actually makes quality cars. Just goes to show investors and customers are not the same.
I don’t understand how people can afford $100k trucks like they are nothing. We have stealth wealth and retired at 49 but I’d never dream of buying a car in that price range. My current car is a paid off 2013 Prius I paid $26k for and the next one will be similar. I don’t get it.
They can’t. They just live with huge amounts of debt until finally one day the dam breaks.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
I could really use the expertise of this advsors.
Her name is 'BONITA JEANETTE RODRIGUEZ’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks
Everyone knew electric cars were garbage. It’s not concerning
VW didnt invest in Rivian to help them, they paid to bankrupt them and keep some of the patents. Although it seems like short term it will help them, it really wont, as now they have to comply with deadlines to get the rest of the money from VW, while still delivering the amazon order, which they are failing already. Its a shame because they do have good cars, but product =/= company.
Car manufacturing needs to achieve scale to become profitable. If you reach this scale, it means your product has been fully adopted by the market. Investors are betting that Rivian will reach this scale soon, rather than focusing on immediate profitability.
About a decade ago, a put a few hundred dollars of Tesla stock in my roth ira. I had had to pull it all out when I lost my job and had bills to pay. Today that Tesla stock would be just shy of $50,000.
I let FOMO impact my decision to buy $1,000 worth of Rivian shares during the IPO. Thats the lesson Rivian taught me. Never letting FOMO impact my logic again.
That’s tough. Hype is a very powerful force.
Why did you do a valuation with the IPO price as opposed to today's price? I want to know if it's a good investment today when so much capital has already been sunk into the company.
(Not a rivian shareholder) this company seems to be investing most of their money back into their product which is amazing they are thinking of the bigger picture kind of like bezos with his company and how he cornered the entire market while losing billions and in the end he got his trillions. Seems like rivian is trying to corner the market with quality products maybe not a bad buy considering the price and as a Californian I see them all over the place.
I've heard that index funds and ETFs provide diversified stock market exposure while spreading risk. I have over $800K in savings; What's the most effective strategy to allocate funds in my portfolio and generate profits?
Yes, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist
Considering the sell and invest option? It's essential to consult a reliable financial planner to ensure income projections align with your goals.
have you worked with a financial planner ? if yes , how was it? care to share your experience
Certainly I have, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Jessica Lee Horst” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
This Jessica lady looks great.i looked her name up. We have about $300,000 in IRA and 401(k) and 403(b) assets. Is that something she can manage? I already left a message, what’s the response timing like?
The real problem for this company and for the entire American industry is the declined industry capability. It takes 10 years to launch a new model in USA while in China, they pull out a new model every 6 month.
The Cyber Truck was a tactical nuke for Rivian
I had a friend invest everything in Fisker because he had another friend convince him to. I told him at the time he took the position that I wouldn't do that, but he's about 15 years older and I didn't think it was my place to give him advice. His position is down over 99% at this point. I feel bad for him and his family and hope he can recover.
Diversify
Haha crazy. And fisker history track record is easy to be found not something you would go all in on.
Very unfortunate considering rivian has an awesome team, the trucks are fantastic in basically every way, and their corporate culture is way less toxic than tesla. They're like Tesla's nice sibling.
If they can get through low times they'll establish themselves as a major brand, mark my words
It’s not much of a truck due to the short bed like the Honda our bikes don’t even fit unless we lower the gate
I wouldn’t touch Rivian with 10’ft pole.
I’m a newer investor and bought a lot of rivian at 12-13$ a share. When it soared to 25 I dumped all of it and haven’t owned any since. Thought abt buying when it tanked but I have absolutely 0 faith in EV industry
Are you Liam Lawson? 🏎️ (or maybe twin). And thanks for great videos!
😂😂 he might be
Rivian has a product that could be profitable someday. With Bitcoin, you pay $70, 000 for a single piece of 🤔 🤔
Bitcoin is basically casino
@@maalikserebryakovno
@@maalikserebryakovnot at all. Educate yourself
Unfortunately, Rivian is going to have to cut prices to make a dent in the market. Which will hurt share prices short term. Coupled with tight consumers right now, I don't think Rivian's short-term financial future is bright. Great product that needs a stronger economy to thrive.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly. because i have saved up a large sum of money don't want it to go to waste looking to get into stocks and also looking for other viable means to hedge against the inflation
If you lack knowledge about market investing tactics, get advice from a financial counselor.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
Her name is ‘Melissa Jean Talingdan’ Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
3 month bonds at +5% return.
Bot
I don't understand. Are you saying they won't be giving chunky dividends?
I love rivian stock...we made $16k trading it, and another $12k flipping an r1s. Thanks rivian 🙏
OCI is not revenue... net loss includes all their revenue and expenses
Lol ya I was wondering why he highlighted OCI when talking about revenue and net loss when talking about cash flows 🤔 hoping that was just an editing error
Was not expecting a Beyoncé jump scare in a video about Rivian stock being a sink hole😭
Still holding thankfully options softened the blow
That sweater features in both the video and the cut away to the podcast. Respect! Save cash by keeping your wardrobe simple.
Hahaha, people that follow the channel on the regular will know I have a very simple wardrobe haha
This is his version of Warren Buffet and Jeff Bezos mythos of being a billionaire and driving an old Toyota Camry
Even buying now would be crazy. People are getting FOMO thinking they're going to miss the next Tesla buying opportunity, but even if they manage to somehow turn things around there will be plenty of time to jump in without missing much of the gains. It's only risk right now.
Survival of the company depends on whether they can reduce the cost per unit through experience and economies of scale. Without getting the direct cost well below sale price, there is no possibility of avoiding bankruptcy.
They make cars way fancier than they need to be, including EVs. Whatever company makes a basic EV that has a decent range without all of the fancy trimmings…wait, the Chinese have already done that.
Great video but what’s also amazing to see is the caveat at the end. Make it so much more honest and reliable
Fantastic video as always! I'm guessing Rivian gets acquired by a big tech player or legacy auto company
Thanks David!
4:39 For all the rivian investors that got triggered. You need to rethink your financial investment decisions, and accept the present situation. you should've known by now Rivian's situation and not try to ignore the obvious.
If a friend comes to you, and asks you to invest in their business, you'll ask a lot about the business before you invest. Same goes for any stock.
Me personally I'm heavily invested in Rivian as i see great potential, but i know the risks it brings with it.
Both Lucid and Rivian suffered 57%-89% nose dive for the last 5 years. Doesn’t mean their product is bad, it just mean new technology market adoption require deep investment pocket. Tesla, BYD, Stellantis, etc have much deeper pockets to tough it out. Check back on this topic next 5 years and see who is the winner
Apparently the product is amazing, we’ll see if they can handle the business side of it too. I hope they get things moving in the right direction. I really like the design, adventure brand, and engineering of the product.
A lot of people even with this surge still below water. They’re itching for it to come to so they can bail and break even.
The thing is thought that Rivian makes fantastic products. Most people who own one say that it is one of the best purchases they have ever made.
It has been a tough year for the legacy OEMs as well... for Rivian profitability is possible in the near future. Not only do I want them to keep going because I am an investor myself, but also because I really believe that they are making an excellent product and really hope to see more Rivians on the road.
Doesn’t matter how good their product is if they can’t cut down cost and sell more cars.
Of course, customer is gonna love their Rivian products. They literally sold you a truck that cost $120k to make at just $80k. It's like an new type of modern company who doesn't need to make a profit, and can just ask unlimited money from investors whenever they want
Rivian certainly needs to streamline production and drastically reduce costs (it has done that in some capacity recently by retooling its factory, but it needs to trim a lot more off the cost). But one thing a lot of financial RUclipsrs like yourself forget is that no business is risk-free, especially for startups, and double-especially for startups joining an established industry, and triple-especially for startups looking to disrupt that industry by changing the model and core product (Tesla definitely led this effort, by the way, so don't get me wrong).
Unfortunately, to compete in this space, you have to burn cash on the front end and figure out profitability as you go. Because it hasn't been done in 100 years (Tesla being the only exception, a company that happens to be run by a super-genius), there's not really a formula for getting this done. In other words getting to profitability, even with a really solid product, is damn near impossible. However, I think RJ Scaringe is a pretty smart guy, and the Rivian brand is strong with great new products announced, so they just might get it done (the VW deal definitely bought them some time).
Thanks for making this, I was looking at Rivian IPO and decided not to invest, regretted it at first but not now 😂
The problem is that if you buy now with the risk it is under $15 a share. The moment they break even or post a tiny profit it will be $50 + a share.
They have layed over 15% of people off and retooled factory to cut vehicle production cost by 35%. The next two quarters will be interesting.
You're exactly right don't miss boat
You couldnt be more wrong, their stock will never reach 20$ again, and will likely be bankrupt in the next 1-2 years.
If it continues to grow at the rate that it has the last 3 weeks it'll be over $20 2 weeks from now. But it will definitely be worth a lot more in 2 years. They're not going bankrupt. They're about take off
@@markvickers2411 If it continues to fall as it has for the past 3 years, it will also cost 2$. This week (maybe today) ull see a significant drop.
@@markvickers2411 I agree big time
Infinite Growth is infinitely far away, a corporation should never be entirely defined by its Stock valuation hut rather by its Ratio of OPX to GROSS.
Maybe comparing to Uber when talking about fake evaluations is not a best
Do you think that of all of Rivian’s existence; that now would be the time to buy? It seems it’ll only get better or fail as a company.?.
I'll admit, i got caught up in the hype of Rivian, but man im so glad the market priced me out of it for a whole year. Glad i dodged this bullet, it just sucks i wasn't able to dodge Lucid.
0:14
The VW plot is 0 shifted, scale is 2.50 per tick vertically and starts at 10 or 12.50.
This is in contrast to all of the other plots in this serires that do origin at 0
**edited to remove an unwanted timestamp link
I love my Rivian, best vehicle Ive ever had by far. But I would NEVER invest in the stock
Nope. Haven’t seen a single one of these on the road and I have never heard of them. So, they are doing great!
Starting out a decade back Tesla was also in the same boat heading towards bankruptcy. Tesla however continued to manage funding till it delivered mass production Model 3s and started making money . Rivian hopes to do so too , however the challenge is to produce a great quality mass production vehicle plus is there a market for it anymore ?
"Making money" as in, "sells things for money" or "brings in more money than they spend" Those are 2 different things.
@@Uruz2012 yeah i meant "brings in more money than they spend"
How are the other Car companies going? Because we are in a big world economic downturn? Is there any comparisons?
They're not 90% off their cap. Toyota is up 20%. Ford is flat. Etc.
Amazon operated in the red for 9 years.
As a Rivian bag holder after buying at $13 and watching it drop down to $8 I’m pumped
Rivian fanboi share holders will never sell. Highly emotional beings and the only research they’ve probably done is how cool it’ll make them look driving a rivian.
Or they are high on Copium, the amount of Rivian investors that think the company can go from burning billions to profitable is crazy
@@hs5312 it’s not impossible. Tesla did it and many companies have done it.
It’s not easy though because there’s a lot of competition especially coming from China
@@13965082 Tesla never got even as close to burning as much money as Rivian or Lucid are now while trying to get to profitability. The numbers just aren't the same. Rivian and Lucid are cash incinerators like nothing I've seen before, it's incredible
The problem with having an electric vehicle is most people think you need a home. I have plenty of friends that live out here in New York that make great money. But don’t own a home. Hence, why they won’t buy an electric vehicle.
it was the same thing when the automobiles were invented in the 1900s most startups went bankrupt only a few succeeded.
Accept that their legacy auto makers in the EV market, whereas the original auto market didn’t have already established players that can out last most startups
my dad invested in this, i had never heard of rivian at that time and turns out he lost a lot on it. kinda sucks couldve bought nvidia at the same time and be up x fold
I kind of blows my mind that people are buying these expensive cars that I would imagine need specialts to work on, when Rivian goes under will people be able to get parts for those cars anymore? Let alone if something else goes wrong, and they are produced anymore and not a lot were to begin with, scary to think how much it would cost to fix at that point
Great video, its easy to get drawn in when the hype is going. not really analyzing but act on fomo.
i thought Rivian was the next big thing in EV im glad i missed the ipo..
This is a very perfunctory analysis. It can be summed up as “I don’t know how to value start-ups, so I don’t buy them. And Rivian is down 90%.” Those seem to be the only salient points.
These new EV car companies start out selling expensive vehicles first and then maybe cheaper ones. When Toyota, Honda, Datsun, Subaru, Mazda, and Hyundai started selling cars, they started selling cheap cars and grew because customers thought they were reliable and affordable.
That is because EV’s are so new that manufacturing process has not been developed enough to build those cars cheaply enough and the supply chain for EV’s is still being developed as well also affected cost. When there is more experience and the processes are better refined, EV’s will be a lot more affordable but the thing the players in the EV market at that point will just be Tesla and the legacy automakers. All of these startups will be broke by the time EV’s get to be fully mainstream
Working with numbers like 1 billion is just so mind-boggling I mean, these are astronomical amounts of money
I wanted to short this stock at the peak, biggest mistake was not doing it. Could've been a millionaire
the byd comparison is kinda weird given that their vehicles have massive tariffs on them. not really an example of a car manufacturer failing to run a business properly
Worst investment ever for me, I bought them because they make good vehicles - bad mistake. Just sold to offset my tax - 90% - ouch
Followed RIVN stock since IPO, first time bought in some calls at $10 a share and sold at $17… going to wait again to see how low can we go 😅
Eventually to 0
Why comparing the valuation to Uber or Comcast? Compare it to Tesla or Ford
Since they announced their cooperation with monster Volkswagen AG and got fresh money from there, they grew a little bit, but trust is gone. Hope, it is going to run again.
You have to note the fact that there was a LARGE partner investor, Jeff Bezos (Amazon). He purchased around 17% of the company in 2019 and set up the exclusivity deal with an order for 100,000 vehicles set over 10 years. In 2023, Rivian requested a cancellation of the exclusivity deal. They wanted the capability to sell their vans to everyone. Amazon agreed, Rivian was ecstatic. The next week, the order was canceled for three remainder of the 100,000 vans. Another huge financial blow.
I can say this. I have driven one of these trucks, they are WAY nicer than a Tesla, their battery takes you further, and it is a real truck. This company isn’t going anywhere, so I’d invest while it’s cheap. Just my opinion.
So Amazon wanted to order another 100,000 cars over the existing order of 100,000 or did they just cancel the existing order. I heard Amazon had around 10,000 Rivian Vans on Road, another 90,000 was pending deliveries.
So its like most other startups? Only they actually produce decent product
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Charlotte Miller.
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
FXMILLER17 💯.. that's it
Another scam don’t lookup these guys don’t interact with these guys just report them
WE ARE SCAMMERS WE WILL LURE YOU INTO MONEY TRAP
How could a company that sold 150 cars with a $150b market cap ever make sense?
Had Rivian driven sales up from 150 to a million a year, the market cap still wouldn’t make any sense.
Had it been a s successful as Tesla there would due two tesla to share the market.
In other words had everything perfectly well the market cap would not have gone up,
The very definition of priced to perfection.
This is why WB doesn’t do autos. That said, I got in at $11 and pretty happy with it. Maybe VW can buy us all out like Elon?
Well presented and insightful. Thanks!
There had been no successful new car company for 50 years until Tesla arrived. Even Tesla went through production hell before coming out with positive earnings on their 4th car model, 7 years after selling their first car. Investors somehow think that this success can now be replaced by other companies in 1/4 of the time.
It's called a market over saturation of a product almost no one wanted propped up by governments. Too many manufacturers making a product for too few people...supply & demand
Never heard of the company.
It’s worth more per share than Ford. TSLA has no business being as high as it is, might be your problem.
the cars they make are actually good. why aren't they selling well tho? or generate proper revenue?
Oh but at least the trucks are freakin SWEEET
That's true!
EV trucks arent for mass market.
They cut into work time (hold on boss let me go charge the truck for an hour), have crazy upfront costs, and the batteries make them basically disposable after 8 years.
Its not that deep.
Great video as allways. Been following Rivian since the IPO hype and it's definitely been a rollercoaster. While the future of electric vehicles is bright, Rivian's stock price seems to be disconnected from their current production capacity. Maybe they'll turn things around, but for now this feels like a cautionary tale for chasing hot IPOs.
Thanks Owen! I think you're right - there definitely looks to be that disconnect between production and valuation.
The automotive industry is fighting against the used automotive industry. Electrification, anti-right to fix practices, and the ever increasing price of new cars is killing the automotive industry with customers scrambling for cheaper fixable used cars.
Hence why I invest in road surface asphalt companies as opposed to vehicles...............just sayin
I invested some on this company, I think they will be very profitable. We are electrifying everything and I think they can diversify into other products.
When value investing comes into play, what's a fair price for Kodak? Personal opinions, not investment advice🎉🎉🎉
Are we not gonna talk about Luminar Technologies stock? Released at $10, peaked at $30-something and is now ~ $1.00 with an all-time low of $0.79.
Can you review CAVA IPO and its performance since then?