Thanks Karl. Your 19th century philosophy failed over and over and nearly ended mankind as a species completely. Join the modern world please. Free Markets are the future.
The voters chose Trump because they are: tired of high prices, tired of taxes, and tired of the federal debt. Unfortunately, according to conservative economists, Trump happens to be the one candidate that will almost certainly make all of these problems *much* worse. His tariffs will make prices rise, possibly in quite dramatic fashion. His additional tax cuts to the wealthy will explode the already huge federal debt (also Trump's doing). Those same tax cuts for the wealthy will be accompanied by tax increases to anyone who isn't wealthy (IE: most of us). So, the summary: voters chose the absolute worst guy for the job. People need to stop thinking with their televisions.
Why do people rely on "experts" when fundamentally this is not true. Anyone with an econ 101 education would know that's just not true. TCJA applied to all citizens so it just shows "conservative economist" don't even know what a standard deduction is. Tariffs will cause prices to rise, but it will coincide with wage growth. Only way to raise wages is competition of labor, if you make it so cheap international labor cannot compete with US labor, then competition throughout the US will drive up wages.
@@Matt-kw3vq notice how 7 people reflected your opinion which is honestly an idiotic one you have 10 quotation marks in 1 paragraph and you never present any evidence for your argument except the other guy is wrong because so and so says so also for god sake get an education beyond primary school and if you don't know what primary school is your proving my point its elementary school
@@Matt-kw3vqWage growth...yeah because if there's one thing Republicans are famous for is raising minimum wage, supporting worker bargaining rights, affordable housing. It's almost impossible your this gullible.
@@CarmenTiernoyou should probably delete you comment. Just saying that you sound pretty “smart”(I just gave you the extra quotation marks you needed to be right)
Right now the 400 lb gorilla is housing. House prices are pumped up into a huge bubble, coupled with rent rates being higher than most mortgages. Eventually, that bubble has to burst. We didn't learn our lesson in 2008 and still regard houses as an investment rather than a place to live. So long as we keep thinking the former, we are condemned to relive these bubbles in perpetuity.
I've been screaming this. Treating necessities as something to make a fuck load of money on makes people needlessly worse off for the gain of a small few. Many of whom are the people being helped by trumps policies.
His tax cuts are for anyone making more than $400k a year. Been a Republican since 1990 and the GOP has always believed in the trickle down effect. The problem is there is no trickle down effect. The people that own or run the companies keep those profits. The trickle down effect was from the 1950's when the government capped what CEO's could make which then trickled down all of the profits to the employees. In the 1950's profits to inflation would be like the normal blue collar worker making $50hr+ now.
Exactly. I’ve explained it this way before:I’ll give you this $100, and I ask that you keep $10, and distribute $90 to other people. You get to keep $10 for doing nothing. Just an extra $10 more than you had, and just give the $90 away. And every person I tell that to replies with “I’d keep $90 and give away $10.” 🤦🏻♂️
It's because tax is on profits and not revenue. The idea is that if companies keep more, they'll pay their people more, but profits which are what get taxed are what the company basically already kept. It doesn't matter what the tax rate is, taxes don't kick in before everyone is paid, they kick in after. So whether the tax rate is 20% or 90% if a company brings in 1 million dollars, they have all of that when it's time to pay the employees. Tax cuts don't increase their revenue. However, after expenses are paid including wages and benefits, taxes do kick in for the company. When the tax rate is high, you can actually pay less taxes by just paying everyone more, decreasing your profits, and having less to tax at the end. Lowering taxes actually incentivizes the business to increase their profits by paying everyone less because they will keep more of the profit.
@@flarnnetwork2952 hard to say right- with 37T and the potential for conflict- it is in the interest of the Dems to cause as much chaos before Trumps people are in and have access to all the levers!!
I would say enjoy the next 3 months, then before he takes office on the 20th of Jan, begin to offload on major positions little by little. As the remaining 3-9 months are months of uncertainty.
One of the biggest issues we have is that a lot of people think the stock market is the economy. While the stock market is being floated so long and is not a reflection of the health of a economy. All times high on SP500 while families can't afford food and working young generation can not afford homes.
Maybe people should save and invest in the stock market. That is how the the wealthy make money. So, apart from the government sending people stimulus checks, what else can the government do? Even Trump's government cannot lower prices. That will be deflation, which will lead to a recession. You think the economy is bad now? Wait until until we enter a recession.
1:30 Prices are going up my paycheck isn't how is it so hard for government's and rich people to understand. Everyone I know is facing some variation of that exact sentiment. Maybe the stock market's doing amazing because companies are pocketing profit and aren't paying their employees a damn thing
The reason behind this is quite simple if you understand economics. Trickle down economics enrich corporations at the expense of the workers and consumers, it doesn't create a balance (money naturally flow in the producers and service providers direction, thus if the money accumulate there without sufficient redistribution back to the people you will get a stagnant economy); similarly without a regulated economy your risk that the market self-destruct due to lack of self-restraint from corporate greed. Sure, less regulation means more competitive freedom - but do you really want more competitiveness that often comes at the expense of the consumers? Regulation is not a bad thing, it's there to ensure the protection of the consumers and nature among other. Corporations and investors love these policies (lower corporate tax, less regulation) because it gives them short-term gains, but that doesn't mean they are healthy for the overall economy.
exactly my opinion everyone says President business/Jesus/dumb*** who doesn't know anything except how to make people like him and narcissism was going to save everyone where is it all I see is a dead end
Herbert Hoover, the president who’s best known for fumbling America’s economic policy during the start of the Great Depression, was also one of the country’s most prolific tax raisers. The Revenue Act of 1932 raised the top rate from 25% to 63%, but no income bracket was spared. The corporate income tax also doubled from 12% to 24%.
From our perspective, going into 2025 with Trump being inaugurated the market remains very bullish and throughout 2025 we see lean bullish sentiments. The predicted downfall in our circles is closing 2025 and going into 2026.
Interesting analysis.. though blaming the recessions on democrats policies or yield curves preceding the newly elected Republicans is a gross oversimplification. In 2000, Bush’s return to trickle down economics was the major factor. Republicans will never learn, tax-cuts/trickle down policies are not the answer.
For once Trump might be right, there is a high probability that an economic depression is just around the corner. The almost inevitable trade wars will seal the deal.
Do I buy house while interest rates are low or do I chance the downturn/recession will bring houses down enough to buy even at the higher interest rates?
What about Ronald Reagan? Wasn’t he considered to be one of the most anti regulation pro business presidents of all time? Look what happened when he was in office?
There are so many people throughout the world that have so much debt that they can’t afford to pay back. Plus many governments throughout the world. This has all got to come to an end. Probably end up being a great reset.
If you look at the benner cycle , the top of 1928, 1972 and 2000 (end 1999)are all predicted by the banner cycle to sell and I will trust the benner cycle to say that 2026 will be the year to sell again .
The same source you pointed out also showed Hoover increased taxes Trump won’t stop a recession, but Hoover was very much an interventionist, unlike what people think of him. Would’ve happened under Harris too. It’s gonna suck regardless
but how will trump clear the 35 trillion us national debt, sure he can try and prevent a recession for now but creates a bigger problem for the near future
We will see jusIt how good Trump is in the next 4 years. My bet is that he was all talk like he was in 2016. Though like back then, he took over after a democrat cleaned shit up and we were on an upward trend. If anything, Trump should be happy he lost in 2020.
The printer is broken and down for maintenance. The FED is not going to destroy *** their *** dollar. If the FED has to destroy your 401K and home equity to defend the dollar, that is a sacrifice they are willing to make. It will still snow in Aspen, these people do not care if your life gets wrecked, they are rich and their stranded of living will not change at all regardless of the macro economics.
this and having a digital dollar doesnt cost anything to make, with paper inflation is realized and costs come with it. digital currency is going to wreck the dollar in about 3 months. its a direct threat to centralized national currencies.
@@MrBiggerdaddio If decentralized digital currencies are a threat to the US dollar, then why do they follow the US stock market and dollar T-Bills one to one. That’s because while they claim to decentralized and independent, their entire value is inherently pinned to the US dollar. When the US enters into a recession, depression, or any form of economic downturn, they follow hard. Digital dollars are not going to wreck the US dollar. The US economy is going to wreck the digital dollars.
As Michael Burry said "The FED will cut, and the government will stimulate" resulting in an inflatory "bullwhip effect". Ultimately the rich will get richer. Everyone else will fight among themselves and point their fingers.
Around four minutes you rewind to the 1928 election but jump to 1932. Prior to 1928 Coolidge, with his Treasury Secretary Mellon, had been on a tax cutting spree. Hoover continued this leading into and during the beginning of the Great Depression. He didn't finally raise taxes until years of failing to turn it around.
I don't know I heard the big recession should come for so long now. All charts show it should've already happened. So I don't think it will american corporations will continue to grow
at 4:09 why does the paragraph you around what your high light directly contradict what is said in the video from the effects to even the date? you say "Hebert hoover supported the revenue act of 1928 which effectively reduced taxes" while the paragraph says "hoover signed the revenue act of 1932, which doubled the estate tax, hiked corporate tax rates and increased the top personal tax rate from 25 to 63%". herbert hoover entered office march 4th 1929 so could not have even signed a revenue act in 1928 so i will assume you mispoke and meant the 1932 revenue act. the paragraph your siting is correct as it increased income tax for anyone making over 4000USD with the highest rate over doubling, to add to that the corprate tax rate went from 12% to 13.75%. it also reintroduced the gift tax while also halfing the exemption amount and increasing tax on gifts over all. the only thing it did was give exemptions income taxes that would only reduce taxes on the poorest americans(average wage was ~4.8k with the exemptions being beneficial to those making less then 8k the issue is the majority of the time a man would make more then 8k for his entire family). if i had to personally say anything about it rather then a tax decrease, i would say its a tax increase focused on pushing more money into the stock market. its stated that its intention was to increase taxes to fix an unbalanced federal budget while not effecting the average person and many believe it to have made recovering from the depression even harder. while i do agree a depression is likely trumps policies are the opposite approach to hoover in nearly every way as rather then increasing taxes to deal with government bloat hes cutting government spending.
The great depression was largely a result of the policy of the federal reserve's monetary at the time than Herbert Hoover's election and fiscal policy.
He meant the 1928 legislation, like he spoke, but the text in the video says 1932 legislation, and people looked up 1932 and became confused. Context tells you that he meant legislation before the crash and his words stated '1928' legislation. Instead of reacting, folks should have looked up 1928 legislation, they'd see he's correct, that it is literally just a text error on the screen. Good god, folks, that's not difficult to figure out.
@bravosresearch So, with all these recession indicators (inverted yield curve, Sahm rule, consumer sentiment, etc.) flashing red how long do you give it before the recession is here?
u have to understand that the bad consumer sentiment mainly comes from people thinking they were worse off because it has never happened that the inflation has been tamed by not losing an significant amount of jobs. the sentiment is bad becuase it takes a while for real wasges to keep up with the higher prices, thus the timeframe inbetween feels bad becuase suddenly prices have surged. Other tahn that the economy is at its strongest ever, so i dont know if you can say that the current situation is the same like under hoover or bush tbh
It’s interesting how this piece leaves out the 1980 election. There are a bunch of similarities between the late seventies and the past four years and Ronald Reagan turned it around with tax cuts and deregulation. But this guy doesn’t want to talk about that. He also leaves out the time period leading up to the 2000 election. Hundreds of millions of dollars poured through the economy starting around 1994 but it all came to a grinding halt on Jan 1, 2000. Once the spigot was turned off and mass amounts of IT layoffs hit, the economy had nowhere to go but down. But he doesn’t want to talk about that. What trash.
We are currently borrowing gains from the future to prop up the market today. Any gains to this market at this stage will be paid in full by an extended, stagnant market for years to come. The market badly needs a correction. Trump is just going to pour gas on everything by printing more money and we are going to pay for that handsomely a few years from now.
Economic wise, things have never been worse. We are living in economic times worse than any depression/recession. Fantastic video, once again as always. 1930: Average income was $4,887, average monthly rent was $18 a month ($216 a year), average home was $6,000, average new car price was $500. This said, yearly rent was 4.4% of your income, a home was 123% of your income, a car was 10% of your income. 1935 (peak Great Depression): Average income was $1,622, average rent was $27 monthly ($324 a year), average home was $3,900, average new car was $850. This said, yearly rent was 20% of your income, a home was 240% of your income, a new car was 52% of your income. 2009 (peak 2008 Recession): Average income was $50,000, average rent was $486 monthly ($5,832 yearly), average new car was $23,276, a home was $272,900. This said, yearly rent was 12% of your income, a new car was 47% of your income, and a house was 546% of your income. 2024 (current time): Average income is $59,000, average monthly rent is $1,700 ($20,400 annually), average new car price is $48,000, average home price is $415,000. This said, yearly rent is 35% of your income, a home is 703% of your income, and a new car is 81% of your income. This isn't factoring in everything else such as food, utilities, entertainment, clothing, etc.
Past performance does not = future results. We'll all have to wait and see. What I do believe is economically speaking we have "sown the wind and we'll reap the whirlwind" at some point.
You can just compare those times with the market today at a limited extent. The economy is very robust in the US. The big difference is, that we have social media now and a lot of people are being made anxious about the economy way more, than it was possible back then. So considering the feelings of people is not an acurate indicator anymore. Sure, a recession is possible, but it's not guaranteed.
Something that all those downturns had in common - they happened during Republican presidencies. Looks like their policies aren't so goo for the economy after all.
Small Caps Dip-buying especially in the EV and AI Future leadership sectors propell the Bull market into 2025. Workhorse 80 % gains this week and Vhai . Vocodia up 14 % Tues . Archer Evtol Jets stock flying higher for a week and Nvidia leads the tech sector up 2 % today. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks.
While I love your outlook, I'm thinking there may be broader, more complex dynamics at work. We're seeing a shift away from hyper globalization where the US may act as a relative safe haven amid instability in the EU and China. Instead of trying to time a recession, I'm considering the long term impacts of the deglobalization trend: persistent inflation, shifting capital flows, crypto adoption, rising wages - all of this supports US growth and stability to weather a storm like you are predicting.
In the U.S. there is no where to go but down. Free trade and globalization lifted the rest of the world. The idea that tariffs and/or bringing back manufacturing would have any significant impact is laughable. Short of a depression that would achieve a financial reset things will not change.
So .... if you have money in 401K and it is managed by your employer designated financial services company , you are projecting a bubble a year from now, where do you invest? You switch from stock to????
guess what...Stock markets need to correct. Its healthy. its unhealthy to have endless bull markets...guess what else..recessions can help tame inflation
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy.
I think you are completely skating over the fact that we have a fourth industrial revolution just starting to boom which will completely negate this....
📢Game of Trades is now Bravos Research!
Subscribe to our FREE Macro Report 📈👉 newsletter.bravosresearch.com
Tax cuts and de-regulation doesn't stimulate economic growth.
It stimulates short term profits for asset holders.
And the clip keep talking about stocks, but Wall Street hasn't reflect Main Street for at least half a century.
Tax cuts do fuel inflation too.
Thanks Karl. Your 19th century philosophy failed over and over and nearly ended mankind as a species completely. Join the modern world please. Free Markets are the future.
@@thPrisoner lol giving money to government stops inflation.
The voters chose Trump because they are: tired of high prices, tired of taxes, and tired of the federal debt. Unfortunately, according to conservative economists, Trump happens to be the one candidate that will almost certainly make all of these problems *much* worse. His tariffs will make prices rise, possibly in quite dramatic fashion. His additional tax cuts to the wealthy will explode the already huge federal debt (also Trump's doing). Those same tax cuts for the wealthy will be accompanied by tax increases to anyone who isn't wealthy (IE: most of us). So, the summary: voters chose the absolute worst guy for the job. People need to stop thinking with their televisions.
Why do people rely on "experts" when fundamentally this is not true. Anyone with an econ 101 education would know that's just not true. TCJA applied to all citizens so it just shows "conservative economist" don't even know what a standard deduction is. Tariffs will cause prices to rise, but it will coincide with wage growth. Only way to raise wages is competition of labor, if you make it so cheap international labor cannot compete with US labor, then competition throughout the US will drive up wages.
@@Matt-kw3vq notice how 7 people reflected your opinion which is honestly an idiotic one you have 10 quotation marks in 1 paragraph and you never present any evidence for your argument except the other guy is wrong because so and so says so also for god sake get an education beyond primary school and if you don't know what primary school is your proving my point
its elementary school
You forgot- tired of open borders, funding foreign wars, stupid energy policies.
@@Matt-kw3vqWage growth...yeah because if there's one thing Republicans are famous for is raising minimum wage, supporting worker bargaining rights, affordable housing.
It's almost impossible your this gullible.
@@CarmenTiernoyou should probably delete you comment. Just saying that you sound pretty “smart”(I just gave you the extra quotation marks you needed to be right)
Right now the 400 lb gorilla is housing. House prices are pumped up into a huge bubble, coupled with rent rates being higher than most mortgages. Eventually, that bubble has to burst. We didn't learn our lesson in 2008 and still regard houses as an investment rather than a place to live. So long as we keep thinking the former, we are condemned to relive these bubbles in perpetuity.
I've been screaming this. Treating necessities as something to make a fuck load of money on makes people needlessly worse off for the gain of a small few. Many of whom are the people being helped by trumps policies.
His tax cuts are for anyone making more than $400k a year. Been a Republican since 1990 and the GOP has always believed in the trickle down effect. The problem is there is no trickle down effect. The people that own or run the companies keep those profits. The trickle down effect was from the 1950's when the government capped what CEO's could make which then trickled down all of the profits to the employees. In the 1950's profits to inflation would be like the normal blue collar worker making $50hr+ now.
Exactly. I’ve explained it this way before:I’ll give you this $100, and I ask that you keep $10, and distribute $90 to other people. You get to keep $10 for doing nothing. Just an extra $10 more than you had, and just give the $90 away. And every person I tell that to replies with “I’d keep $90 and give away $10.” 🤦🏻♂️
@@user-ho1yn6ms7y "Nah, are you an idiot? You gave me $100, it's all mine now. Mwahahaha."
Yet more billionaires backed the Democrats.
It's because tax is on profits and not revenue. The idea is that if companies keep more, they'll pay their people more, but profits which are what get taxed are what the company basically already kept. It doesn't matter what the tax rate is, taxes don't kick in before everyone is paid, they kick in after. So whether the tax rate is 20% or 90% if a company brings in 1 million dollars, they have all of that when it's time to pay the employees. Tax cuts don't increase their revenue. However, after expenses are paid including wages and benefits, taxes do kick in for the company. When the tax rate is high, you can actually pay less taxes by just paying everyone more, decreasing your profits, and having less to tax at the end. Lowering taxes actually incentivizes the business to increase their profits by paying everyone less because they will keep more of the profit.
Long story short, we get 3-12 months of good times, and then we run for shelter!
Or few weeks
We have to be prepared brothers
@@flarnnetwork2952 hard to say right- with 37T and the potential for conflict- it is in the interest of the Dems to cause as much chaos before Trumps people are in and have access to all the levers!!
Nope😄But greed eats brains. The likes on your comment are the best contraindication.
I would say enjoy the next 3 months, then before he takes office on the 20th of Jan, begin to offload on major positions little by little.
As the remaining 3-9 months are months of uncertainty.
Lisa Simpson is president exactly after this presidency
So what you're saying is American never learns anything from history.
No humans ever do. History always repeats itself. Always.
You forgot to add the levels of inequality during the Great Depression and now they are the same!!
One of the biggest issues we have is that a lot of people think the stock market is the economy. While the stock market is being floated so long and is not a reflection of the health of a economy. All times high on SP500 while families can't afford food and working young generation can not afford homes.
Maybe people should save and invest in the stock market. That is how the the wealthy make money.
So, apart from the government sending people stimulus checks, what else can the government do?
Even Trump's government cannot lower prices. That will be deflation, which will lead to a recession. You think the economy is bad now? Wait until until we enter a recession.
1:30 Prices are going up my paycheck isn't how is it so hard for government's and rich people to understand. Everyone I know is facing some variation of that exact sentiment. Maybe the stock market's doing amazing because companies are pocketing profit and aren't paying their employees a damn thing
Deregulation of banking in the area of derivatives among other things was a primary cause of the 2008 crash.
Hire a Republican, get ready for recession.
Didn't catch what was said at 3:20, didnt you?
@@notsorandumusernameyou missed his conclusion of this at 4:10
@@porthosduvallon5301 Republicans have selective hearing
my step dad predicted the same thing without watching anything. "maybe a year and a half of bull, then we'll turn bearish."
The reason behind this is quite simple if you understand economics. Trickle down economics enrich corporations at the expense of the workers and consumers, it doesn't create a balance (money naturally flow in the producers and service providers direction, thus if the money accumulate there without sufficient redistribution back to the people you will get a stagnant economy); similarly without a regulated economy your risk that the market self-destruct due to lack of self-restraint from corporate greed. Sure, less regulation means more competitive freedom - but do you really want more competitiveness that often comes at the expense of the consumers? Regulation is not a bad thing, it's there to ensure the protection of the consumers and nature among other. Corporations and investors love these policies (lower corporate tax, less regulation) because it gives them short-term gains, but that doesn't mean they are healthy for the overall economy.
I thought President business/Jesus was going to save everyone?
exactly my opinion everyone says President business/Jesus/dumb*** who doesn't know anything except how to make people like him and narcissism was going to save everyone where is it all I see is a dead end
Hmmm see the pattern? Which party is good for the economy?
Herbert Hoover, the president who’s best known for fumbling America’s economic policy during the start of the Great Depression, was also one of the country’s most prolific tax raisers. The Revenue Act of 1932 raised the top rate from 25% to 63%, but no income bracket was spared. The corporate income tax also doubled from 12% to 24%.
Great Depression 2: Tokyo Drift coming soon in theaters
People are way too excited over this election. But dont worry nothing can go wrong with unbridled enthusiasm.
Canada the uk and Europe are entering into deep recessions.
How people in the us see this and are still buying into the stock market is pure insanity
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.”
-Mark Twain
Great video most people don’t realize republicans tend to tank markets
Is this why Warren Buffett is stock piling cash?
From our perspective, going into 2025 with Trump being inaugurated the market remains very bullish and throughout 2025 we see lean bullish sentiments. The predicted downfall in our circles is closing 2025 and going into 2026.
Interesting analysis.. though blaming the recessions on democrats policies or yield curves preceding the newly elected Republicans is a gross oversimplification. In 2000, Bush’s return to trickle down economics was the major factor. Republicans will never learn, tax-cuts/trickle down policies are not the answer.
For once Trump might be right, there is a high probability that an economic depression is just around the corner.
The almost inevitable trade wars will seal the deal.
Do I buy house while interest rates are low or do I chance the downturn/recession will bring houses down enough to buy even at the higher interest rates?
What about Ronald Reagan? Wasn’t he considered to be one of the most anti regulation pro business presidents of all time? Look what happened when he was in office?
He destroyed unions which is why millennials can't afford houses a.d have no pension plans
There are so many people throughout the world that have so much debt that they can’t afford to pay back.
Plus many governments throughout the world.
This has all got to come to an end.
Probably end up being a great reset.
If you look at the benner cycle , the top of 1928, 1972 and 2000 (end 1999)are all predicted by the banner cycle to sell and I will trust the benner cycle to say that 2026 will be the year to sell again .
*You're scaring Trump supporters*
I feel like it going to be a huge "Sell in May, go away" type of situation
The same source you pointed out also showed Hoover increased taxes
Trump won’t stop a recession, but Hoover was very much an interventionist, unlike what people think of him. Would’ve happened under Harris too. It’s gonna suck regardless
HA HA HA the chart clearly show every time a Republican is President the economy tanks! LOL Good Luck America.
The market only rally because inflation is expected and inflation is a friend of the stock market
What about the huge market crash of 2008 and 2020? It's funny that those are not brought up either.
So, where should we put our money from now on?
but how will trump clear the 35 trillion us national debt, sure he can try and prevent a recession for now but creates a bigger problem for the near future
Emphasize that the yield curve uninverted in August. 1 month to 4 months is actually ALL we have based on hard data.
We will see jusIt how good Trump is in the next 4 years. My bet is that he was all talk like he was in 2016. Though like back then, he took over after a democrat cleaned shit up and we were on an upward trend. If anything, Trump should be happy he lost in 2020.
Your infographics / animations turn me on.
Sold my TSLA and AAPL yesterday. Gonna be totally out of the market before Trump tanks the economy!
The buying power of consumers is about to be decimated. The UK for example is in a really bad way.
The only thing different now is the money printing to prop up the market
We printed in those times as well. The US has always printed. The notion that we have only printed recently is folly and ahistorical.
The printer is broken and down for maintenance. The FED is not going to destroy *** their *** dollar. If the FED has to destroy your 401K and home equity to defend the dollar, that is a sacrifice they are willing to make. It will still snow in Aspen, these people do not care if your life gets wrecked, they are rich and their stranded of living will not change at all regardless of the macro economics.
this and having a digital dollar doesnt cost anything to make, with paper inflation is realized and costs come with it. digital currency is going to wreck the dollar in about 3 months. its a direct threat to centralized national currencies.
At this point it's getting silly.
The uk EU and Canada all have inflation that is below 2% and dropping rapidly.
@@MrBiggerdaddio
If decentralized digital currencies are a threat to the US dollar, then why do they follow the US stock market and dollar T-Bills one to one.
That’s because while they claim to decentralized and independent, their entire value is inherently pinned to the US dollar.
When the US enters into a recession, depression, or any form of economic downturn, they follow hard.
Digital dollars are not going to wreck the US dollar. The US economy is going to wreck the digital dollars.
Interesting that you didn't mention tariff policy here. If there wasn't going to be a recession anyway, Trump's policies would guarantee one.
As Michael Burry said "The FED will cut, and the government will stimulate" resulting in an inflatory "bullwhip effect".
Ultimately the rich will get richer. Everyone else will fight among themselves and point their fingers.
Around four minutes you rewind to the 1928 election but jump to 1932. Prior to 1928 Coolidge, with his Treasury Secretary Mellon, had been on a tax cutting spree. Hoover continued this leading into and during the beginning of the Great Depression. He didn't finally raise taxes until years of failing to turn it around.
Rate cuts started - check! Unemployment rising - check! Cars manufactures falling - check! Be careful people, that's last bell before way down.
End of Q1 … think we will see a risk on rotation now and then goodbye
I don't know I heard the big recession should come for so long now. All charts show it should've already happened. So I don't think it will american corporations will continue to grow
at 4:09 why does the paragraph you around what your high light directly contradict what is said in the video from the effects to even the date?
you say "Hebert hoover supported the revenue act of 1928 which effectively reduced taxes" while the paragraph says "hoover signed the revenue act of 1932, which doubled the estate tax, hiked corporate tax rates and increased the top personal tax rate from 25 to 63%".
herbert hoover entered office march 4th 1929 so could not have even signed a revenue act in 1928 so i will assume you mispoke and meant the 1932 revenue act.
the paragraph your siting is correct as it increased income tax for anyone making over 4000USD with the highest rate over doubling, to add to that the corprate tax rate went from 12% to 13.75%. it also reintroduced the gift tax while also halfing the exemption amount and increasing tax on gifts over all. the only thing it did was give exemptions income taxes that would only reduce taxes on the poorest americans(average wage was ~4.8k with the exemptions being beneficial to those making less then 8k the issue is the majority of the time a man would make more then 8k for his entire family).
if i had to personally say anything about it rather then a tax decrease, i would say its a tax increase focused on pushing more money into the stock market. its stated that its intention was to increase taxes to fix an unbalanced federal budget while not effecting the average person and many believe it to have made recovering from the depression even harder.
while i do agree a depression is likely trumps policies are the opposite approach to hoover in nearly every way as rather then increasing taxes to deal with government bloat hes cutting government spending.
The great depression was largely a result of the policy of the federal reserve's monetary at the time than Herbert Hoover's election and fiscal policy.
He meant the 1928 legislation, like he spoke, but the text in the video says 1932 legislation, and people looked up 1932 and became confused. Context tells you that he meant legislation before the crash and his words stated '1928' legislation. Instead of reacting, folks should have looked up 1928 legislation, they'd see he's correct, that it is literally just a text error on the screen. Good god, folks, that's not difficult to figure out.
Another similarity is Hoover and Trump tariff policy. Hoover even kind of looks like Trump 🤣
@bravosresearch So, with all these recession indicators (inverted yield curve, Sahm rule, consumer sentiment, etc.) flashing red how long do you give it before the recession is here?
Interesting. As a data scientist I'm not a fan of "drawing lines", but you make great videos.
u have to understand that the bad consumer sentiment mainly comes from people thinking they were worse off because it has never happened that the inflation has been tamed by not losing an significant amount of jobs. the sentiment is bad becuase it takes a while for real wasges to keep up with the higher prices, thus the timeframe inbetween feels bad becuase suddenly prices have surged. Other tahn that the economy is at its strongest ever, so i dont know if you can say that the current situation is the same like under hoover or bush tbh
It’s interesting how this piece leaves out the 1980 election. There are a bunch of similarities between the late seventies and the past four years and Ronald Reagan turned it around with tax cuts and deregulation. But this guy doesn’t want to talk about that. He also leaves out the time period leading up to the 2000 election. Hundreds of millions of dollars poured through the economy starting around 1994 but it all came to a grinding halt on Jan 1, 2000. Once the spigot was turned off and mass amounts of IT layoffs hit, the economy had nowhere to go but down. But he doesn’t want to talk about that. What trash.
We are currently borrowing gains from the future to prop up the market today. Any gains to this market at this stage will be paid in full by an extended, stagnant market for years to come. The market badly needs a correction. Trump is just going to pour gas on everything by printing more money and we are going to pay for that handsomely a few years from now.
Economic wise, things have never been worse. We are living in economic times worse than any depression/recession. Fantastic video, once again as always.
1930: Average income was $4,887, average monthly rent was $18 a month ($216 a year), average home was $6,000, average new car price was $500. This said, yearly rent was 4.4% of your income, a home was 123% of your income, a car was 10% of your income.
1935 (peak Great Depression): Average income was $1,622, average rent was $27 monthly ($324 a year), average home was $3,900, average new car was $850. This said, yearly rent was 20% of your income, a home was 240% of your income, a new car was 52% of your income.
2009 (peak 2008 Recession): Average income was $50,000, average rent was $486 monthly ($5,832 yearly), average new car was $23,276, a home was $272,900. This said, yearly rent was 12% of your income, a new car was 47% of your income, and a house was 546% of your income.
2024 (current time): Average income is $59,000, average monthly rent is $1,700 ($20,400 annually), average new car price is $48,000, average home price is $415,000. This said, yearly rent is 35% of your income, a home is 703% of your income, and a new car is 81% of your income.
This isn't factoring in everything else such as food, utilities, entertainment, clothing, etc.
Sounds to me like stocks are going on a discount soon. Can't wait.
If stocks continue to rise for another year, the cap/gdp will be 300%
That's exactly what the pollsters didn't understand, the bad economic sentiment.
Could you please provide more details in the title?
That presidents can even prolong or shorten economic situations is still a dubious claim.
So, ride the wave until the inauguration, and then convert to treasury bonds and cash in high-yield savings. Got it.
Long story short, Reps eventually figure out they f* up.
Past performance does not = future results. We'll all have to wait and see.
What I do believe is economically speaking we have "sown the wind and we'll reap the whirlwind" at some point.
watch out for bots
what is your take on GOLD
Classic mixing up of correlation and causality. These events likely had nothing to do with the elected president
If you are an investor sensitive to valuations you can avoid buying overvalued stocks already. You don't need to predict the next recession.
Great info 😮 Load up but put a Stop Loss in.
You can just compare those times with the market today at a limited extent. The economy is very robust in the US. The big difference is, that we have social media now and a lot of people are being made anxious about the economy way more, than it was possible back then. So considering the feelings of people is not an acurate indicator anymore. Sure, a recession is possible, but it's not guaranteed.
i still think covid broke this model. we have no idea what’s going to happen
Tax cut = stock market crash
So our parents had smp500 at 300$ no wonder they can afford these houses. They 10x plus their money. Even if they put 10k that’s 100k. Easy money too.
Something that all those downturns had in common - they happened during Republican presidencies. Looks like their policies aren't so goo for the economy after all.
Small Caps Dip-buying especially in the EV and AI Future leadership sectors propell the Bull market into 2025. Workhorse 80 % gains this week and Vhai . Vocodia up 14 % Tues . Archer Evtol Jets stock flying higher for a week and Nvidia leads the tech sector up 2 % today. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks.
While I love your outlook, I'm thinking there may be broader, more complex dynamics at work. We're seeing a shift away from hyper globalization where the US may act as a relative safe haven amid instability in the EU and China. Instead of trying to time a recession, I'm considering the long term impacts of the deglobalization trend: persistent inflation, shifting capital flows, crypto adoption, rising wages - all of this supports US growth and stability to weather a storm like you are predicting.
Every TeaPartyGOP administration has caused an economic catastrophe, every Democrat administration has repaired the economy and brought prosperity.
GOP GREAT RECESSION ! GOP GREAT DEPRESSION !
In the U.S. there is no where to go but down. Free trade and globalization lifted the rest of the world. The idea that tariffs and/or bringing back manufacturing would have any significant impact is laughable. Short of a depression that would achieve a financial reset things will not change.
So .... if you have money in 401K and it is managed by your employer designated financial services company , you are projecting a bubble a year from now, where do you invest? You switch from stock to????
No it isn’t.
Thank You. I dig the new name. Where did Bravos come from?
Love your videos! Can you please share the tool(s) you use to make these graphs and animations?
You always show good and easy but comprehensive presentations. The great team!
His tariffs will screw us.
Ok so what buy to ride out recession? /s
How can we benefit from this?
Excellent catch!!! Especially in light of change of Party as in the case with Hoover and Nixon-
In these tenures of depression did gold and silver rally upwards?
what do you guys use to animate your charts?
guess what...Stock markets need to correct. Its healthy. its unhealthy to have endless bull markets...guess what else..recessions can help tame inflation
Trumps not going to be able to turn it around till the end of his term. I don’t understand the market hype but I’m definitely selling the hype
It's enticing to consider purchasing some stocks in this bull run. I'm contemplating investing more than $300k for retirement. While the bull run can generate short-term excitement, i also need long-term investment strategy.
I think you are completely skating over the fact that we have a fourth industrial revolution just starting to boom which will completely negate this....
After the results of this election, do you still think a recession will materialize by next January?