I have mostly oil stocks and have been very wrong in my predictions of the oil price. Thanks for your perspective even though it does not look so optimistic for me.
I understand, we’ve got a few warnings from big companies that hint at unexciting revenues - but the lower rates - and improved growth prospects - should give support.
USD definitely looks strong. Seems like all of these rate cuts are just giving the economy some well-needed oxygen and next thing you know is yields are going up and USD is going up. Makes sense also due to too much expectation and over-positioning for lower rates. Oil likes all this; I agree that geopolitical tensions are mostly just a flash in the pan, at least hopefully it doesn't escalate, but regardless, the conditions are right to be long oil. We will see if it can close above 72 but I think we will work our way back up to 80, eventually. Even with an unlikely peace in the middle east.
Yes, hopefully the data doesn’t get too strong though - that’s the biggest risk (and a great problem to have!) For oil, we will see, I think that if Saudi gets serious about increasing sales, the $80pb could be hard to achieve. Let’s see, things change so rapidly !
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 I'm not sure where this OPEC flooding the market thing comes from but I doubt they would be any different than before. I do think with the potential for very strong data, inflation will be the risk again; the job market is no longer on track to going over the cliff.
@@samthedoorit is the WSJ story, we will see how far they could go. They have a history of swinging from supply restrictions to supply extension… time will tell !
Thank you for your compact wrapup and interesting conclusions
Thanks Ipek, good talk about oil, your insight is very helpful (as I have had to hold a major)
Thank you 🙏🏻
I have mostly oil stocks and have been very wrong in my predictions of the oil price. Thanks for your perspective even though it does not look so optimistic for me.
I understand, we’ve got a few warnings from big companies that hint at unexciting revenues - but the lower rates - and improved growth prospects - should give support.
USD definitely looks strong. Seems like all of these rate cuts are just giving the economy some well-needed oxygen and next thing you know is yields are going up and USD is going up. Makes sense also due to too much expectation and over-positioning for lower rates. Oil likes all this; I agree that geopolitical tensions are mostly just a flash in the pan, at least hopefully it doesn't escalate, but regardless, the conditions are right to be long oil. We will see if it can close above 72 but I think we will work our way back up to 80, eventually. Even with an unlikely peace in the middle east.
Yes, hopefully the data doesn’t get too strong though - that’s the biggest risk (and a great problem to have!)
For oil, we will see, I think that if Saudi gets serious about increasing sales, the $80pb could be hard to achieve. Let’s see, things change so rapidly !
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 I'm not sure where this OPEC flooding the market thing comes from but I doubt they would be any different than before. I do think with the potential for very strong data, inflation will be the risk again; the job market is no longer on track to going over the cliff.
@@samthedoorit is the WSJ story, we will see how far they could go. They have a history of swinging from supply restrictions to supply extension… time will tell !
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 Ah that's where it came from, yep, looks good so far.