Exoatmospheric Intercept: Did you Ever See One?
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- Опубликовано: 4 окт 2024
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April was intelligence gathering. This time a show of force. Third time will be the whole enchilada…
no. all the times were a genocide.
I suppose casting it as some devious master plan rather than two military failures and a waste of ordinance makes it hurt less.
@MM22966 they gave Israel a 24hr warning that they were going to shoot at them in April and where they were going to shoot.
Not really. April was more of a warning shot. Iran informed the Russians 2 days prior to launching the strike, and warned the US before a whole day, giving them all the time in the world to prepare, move the assets and wait. Then Iran launched their slowest and most vulnerable Shahed drones, followed by a few dozen old cruise missile. All that hoping that Israel would back down.
This time they only informed the Russians. And launched ballistic missiles instead of cruise missiles. Even though the vast majority got through, they had relatively smaller warheads. All things suggesting that this too was a warning, but a much firmer one.
3rd time it would be exclusively fattah 2 missiles and the most powerful ballistic missiles. Giving Israel approximately 4-5 minutes to pray whatever devil they worship, before the lights go out.
@@notenote2004 I thought it's called 'Piñata'?🤔
I commend you for your neutrality and impartial analysis.
Imagine being neutral and impartial during a genocide.
@@akinbodeog The fondation of preventing a genocide is not to take sides but to intervene as a strong neutral nation.
@@akinbodeog Which is the good side?? Both sides of this conflict have been killing each other for thousands of years. When two religious fanatics clash there simply is no good side.
@@akinbodeogThat would be a good point if the subject of the video and hence subject of the neutrality was the morality of the actions. But it isn't either of those things. The video is about whether missiles landed or not and objective facts. That's not morally questionable because it's not a moral position. Your point is childish rhetoric.
Further, this is one of the very few *genuinely* apolitical channels, I.E. doesn't discuss anything where morality is even relevant. He doesn't do the fake both sides thing...there's no implied commentary. And if you look at the information in this video through the lens of morality Israel doesn't look good. Because genuine objectivity doesn't hide anything, good or bad. It just answers specific questions objectively. Let's appreciate that rare honesty for once.
@@norm2007 No, these people have not been killing each other for centuries, that is Israeli propaganda. Jewish lived mostly peacefully in Palestine and the wider middle east for thousands of years. The first European settlers in Palestine were welcomed and given land, houses, food and money. Until they started killing and stealing. Antisemitism is a European thing. Palestinian and Lebanese resistance has nothing to do with religion
This is a textbook settler-colonial genocide. It's the exact same thing that happened in the Americas, all over Africa, Australia, New Zealand, parts of China, even the Chagos Islands. If you don't see it, you must be blind.
Excellent analysis of current events with the Battle Of Britain going on in the background.
Well done
"All is well, in the world of Orwell"
Orwell's works were sponsored by British intelligence and he worked for them.
That's the kind of world that has existed for a very long time.
Otlichna! Thank you for the great video
Exoatmospheric interception is much harder than two guys trying to hit each other bullets manually.
No. Much easier.
@@agricolaurbanus6209 Beep boop electronic magic! EZ PZ!
@@agricolaurbanus6209 it must be easy for a genius like you
@@agricolaurbanus6209I tend to agree. Most evasive actions do not occur until the war head is past the apex.
depends on the distance between 2 guys.... but considering 2 guys are 500m apart and using pistols, the exoatmospheric interception will be easier
It's interesting to see this. I haven't seen other sources discuss the possibility of this not being the full picture. Most assess that Iran aimed mostly at areas they knew the Israeli system deprioritized for a political strike and/ or used missiles too inaccurate to score hits, but given the scale of the recorded impacts it seems unlikely there hasn't been more damage than the Israelis claim. Thank you for the alternate viewpoint!
I don't think airbases are not a priority.
Craters adjacent to f35 hangars are about as juicy a target as there is.
I wonder if the drop in effectiveness was a lack of interceptors. There's only so much in the magazine, and flying drain pipes are easier to build quickly compared to exoatmospheric interceptors
I heard that Iran claims to have only launched about just over half the number of missiles claimed by news sources, have no way of knowing which version of events is true, but if that is the case, then the air defence interception rate would be lower.
Usually on every claim in conflicts, be missiles or human losses. The real number is slose to the average between the numbers claimed by both sides
Israel thinks it intercepted a missile, but it actually intercepted the missile engine from which the warhead separated and entered the final stage of self-guidance. That's why Israel says that Iran launched 2 times the number of missiles that Iran launched.
@@AdilAchahbar-g9i But those are separated at the end of the CLIMB stage. They are not separated in the descent stage and they are fairly easy to identify because of that (the simple deviation from the separator is enough to make them tumble)... so woudl be very hard to confuse more than a handful of those with reentry vehicles.
@@tiagostein4057 That's what I thought too until Israel showed Iranian first-stage rocket engines falling in Israel with damage from interceptor missiles and no warhead attached to them.
Thanks, I was waiting for your analysis. There is so much uninformed nonsense on the internet now discussing this. There is little doubt that a lot of missiles got through, and it seems they did real damage, if not as much as the Iranians claim. What is clear is that the missile defences didn’t do a very good job.
April majority UAV
The first Iranian strike contained a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles. The cruise missiles were launched hours in advance of the Ballistics missiles, so they'd all arrive on target at once. The US was shooting down the missiles long before they reached Israeli airspace. You could predict within a few minutes, the moment Iran would launch the ballistic missiles to sync up with slow Shahed style cruise missiles.
Perhaps the interception rate you quoted from the first event included slow, low flying cruise missiles? 72% interception rate on ballistic missiles does not seem like a mission failure. I really doubt the designers of any anti air system really expects 99% interception rate on anything, let alone ballistic missiles.
Well done. Thank you
It is Insane that a country that has been heavily sanctioned for generations can develop these sophisticated weapons.
Well for one they've had decades. Secondly only the west has sanctioned them. They still do business with the rest of the world, and Russia is their primary military ally. Sanctions have limited effectiveness, especially when we sanction so many countries they can all just opt to do business with each other. This is exactly why the Iran nuclear deal existed; they'll still progress under sanctions, just slower, but under the deal they wouldn't progress at all in exchange for denim jeans and iPhones.
Nice interpretation of your available data. This is why I really like your channel. No BS. Just available facts! The number of exoatmospheric intercepts in actual combat have to be a historical record of some kind!
Actually, the weaknesses of reactive air defenses are still not nearly fully exploited. Any thought on the matter would tell an attacker to fire a barrage of missiles containing decoys, counter measures, and distractions. They would be fire works that create many lingering heat signature, missiles filled with foil ribbons and aluminum powder to obscure radar, and dummy missiles aimed at non targets to mislead attention. Follow it with the real attack of missiles with a triangle profile and radar absorbing paint. How about armored missiles? Sure they will have shorter range or carry less explosives, but whats the difference between 750 kg and 500 kg, or 1,700 km and 1,000 km? An unstoppable missile is an unstoppable missile. The message that everyone should glean is that no one is safe. Safety is an illusion that no one can afford. No one is free to act with impunity. Diplomacy and peace must always be the first and last option.
Very interesting seeing a actual photo of the strikes on one of the airbase
Great work as usual... Thanks 🙏. Re: Filming location: For non Brits who like classic aviation and might visit one day, the Shuttleworth Collection is well worth a visit 🙌 And it is true too that you get good stuff flying around in the South East UK / North West of London quite regularly 😁 Lysander flew past me yesterday and today for lolz 🙌🙏😁
Gus, you pronounced Scud very inappropriately but we love you anyway.
other sources quote 4-500
I know you are right my friend.
Davids sling launcher looks like the reditions you see online of The Second Temple. Kind of cute lol.
Wasn't that temple Persian architecture?
The old saying is that in the contest between warhead and armour (or IADS in this case), warhead always wins. It might take a while, but it's impossible to stop everything getting through. The Israelis are just as capable of realising as anyone that the Iranians could shoot a bunch of older, less capable stuff at them to deplete ADS ammo stockpiles before sending in the more capable systems, and maybe they held back a bit against future attacks.
But the Israelis have also shown that they can be extremely competent the vast majority of the time, and then fall victim to hubris, carelessness, overconfidence, or *something*, just when it'll hurt them very badly
Once again great analysis and impartial
Very interesting analysis. Thanks.
Thank you!
The fact that the success rate was significatly high is making the Israelis think twice before responding with a counter strike.
Is that why they have withdrawn from Lebanon and stopped dismantling their proxy group? Because of how successful the second direct strike from them (not from any proxy group) has been? You may want to double check the weather forecast for Beirut.
These people do not think straight. They seem fatalistic or have a big monkey up their sleeve. But normal rational and empathic hearts, with His laws written in there, if, then it must be hidden very well under those demons roaming. 😔
Exactly...They thought they could stop a barrage of missiles and are being naive about it but social media footage disagrees.
I mean they intentionally bombed a Russian base in Syria this week, I don't think they care about the consequences of their actions.
Rockets as well.
A sober analysis. Shared.
Let's say that having an Air force made almost exclusively of planes that need a FULL LENGHT runway and a Full fledged airbase to operate is not such a great thing for a country large "a meter and a cockpit" like Israel...
True. Seen practices done using highways. But that takes the right type and lots of logistics. No idea if Israël has highways long, wide, strong enough for such. Leaves the use of foreign bases. But who want Israël operating like this from their territory. I can only think of Brits Cyprus base. Don't think these planes are adapted for US carier operation. Ergo, hitting their airstrips is at least a temporary operation stall.
From where I stood a bit East of Tel Aviv, I didn't see any of these dim bluish fireworks I saw during the night of Apr. 13-14th. The weather was somewhat overcast though. There appeared to have been at least two salvos, and I watched the second one, regrettably forgetting my rather suitable digital camera. I saw many maneuvering projectiles, probably 50 or so, blooming out of a point in the dark Eastern sky, each trailing what looked like fire and sparks, then appearing to accelerate overhead and diving in the direction of Northern and Central Tel Aviv, and then many very loud detonations followed. I was sure that the city had been utterly wrecked and that there were fatalities in the hundreds, but 30-40 minutes later the Rear Command announced there had been little damage and no casualties. My nephew's CCTV camera near the shore in Tel Aviv recorded a few of these "warheads" flying overhead, so they probably landed in the Mediterranean Sea. I do not know whom to thank for that, EW/ GPS spoofing, or Our Imaginary Friend in the Sky!
Yes, several missiles overshot Tel Aviv and landed in the ocean. Much of it was recorded on Live Web Cameras
There are multiple videos of the impacts on Israeli airbase
Did you see them making course changes with the naked eye?
I'd love to see your reaction on the S-70 Ohotnik incident.
There are interesting reactions, who say they lost control, may be due to jamming or technical issues and had to bring it down, before it reaches Ukrainian air space.
So.. It's basically already deployed to Ukraine and is already operational and we can call it Su-70? 😊
And was it a Su-57 which had to bring it down because they suppose to work together.
10:04 I thought you looked for Moosad agents.
I am wondering how could someone differentiate video of exoatmospheric interception from MARV separation and its engine start? There is only a few recorded videos of both scenario and to me in this instance it can be either case. In the videos only confirmed interception can be seen in the terminal phase of MARVs and interception rate is 5-7% at most.
The only reason why I watch this channel, is because I want to know what the vacuum cleaner thinks about it.
I will ask OTIS😄
Yeah i saw that it looked like 80% rockets got thru i think no one said anything was because the explosions were weak
"Weak" lmao. Such cope.
750 kilo warheads weak? Compared to what nukes?
Weak like youre mom snatch its just that isreal doesnt want to show the damage lol
@@johno1544 No compared to the IDF these rockets are old rubish
@@braddbradd5671 lol what are you talking about you think the IDF has some type of special high explosives? 750 kilos of HE has the same power from the IDF or Iran
Thanks. It was good to hear you say what we all thought.
I am mostly curious about the American SM-3s . Why so few?
The SM-3s have the range and are networked . Was it a political decision to only intercept a token number of the Iranian missiles, or a US Navy failure?
They make 12 of those missiles a year that's probably why so few.
They are so scarce and expensive that you only fire these if you think your carrier is under threat.
@@Grapejellyification Thanks for reminding me.
Of course that begs the question. If they are so expensive were they at least successful in their intercepts?
How come all satellite companies refuse to sell images of israel?
There is an American act forbidding high resolution images
Heard someone decades ago say, they could look at what time it was on your watch on a clear day. Imagine the resolution they could have these days. Check your hair for lice by satellite?
There's no need to intercept missiles that hit the ground but don't do significant damage. That said, you clearly showed damage to civilian infrastructure, so maybe Israel was testing out the laser pd that's been developed in recent years, and it didn't work well enough. Or maybe the interceptors hit the mirv carriers but didn't end up destroying the droplets (that cold also explain why the target locations are dispersed.)
We're you visiting Shuttleworth by any chance... vintage ac flying while talking about 21st century weapons... there aren't many years between them
Not sure where you are, but the backdrop is 100%
A lot of missile launches by Iranian are still just old gene liquid-fueled missiles like the Qadr, which takes time to refuel. If Iran were to go all out with a new generation of solid fuel missiles, early warning and interception would be even more difficult.
Moreover, Israel's deployment of the Arrow-2/Arrow-3 system with a total 144 rounds, would not provide a good interception capability in the face of a large-scale missile barrage, they just don't have time to reload.
Paper dome
Tofu Dome
Sponge theory, you have to sacrifice some things to save others. The only person that died was a Palestinian that snuck in to watch, booster fell on his head.
No damage to isr, only desert was hit.
Paper didn't shoot missiles deliberately. Ukraine is winning.
Please take note that US and and RF where noticed two hours in advance of the incoming strike. Just say...
No problem. RF will provide accurate post strike accurate satellite data...
Nobody on social media has shown the Mossad HQ bldg..
I think it's questionable that 1) these things are visible in flaring as they come down and 2) they fall so slowly. Nazi V2s weren't visible and fell supersonically, so what missiles are appearing on these videos - all doesn't look like ballistic missiles to me
Question for M7,regarding the number of rockets any nation may have,rocket shape and size havent changed considerably for a long time,could it be possible to build rocket bodies containing fuel storage and warheads storage in the millions count and as technology updates or upgrades just fit those technological advances at later stages,thus being able to upgrade the missile count in a short amount of time,going to war with a finite amount of missiles seems shortsighted,what is the process,if someone could explain thanks.
April was not so much of a "missile strike". Iran informed the Russians 2 days prior to launching the strike, and warned the US before a whole day, giving them all the time in the world to prepare, move the assets and wait. Then Iran launched their slowest and most vulnerable Shahed drones, followed by a few dozen old cruise missile. All that hoping that Israel would back down, and it was also a show to the Saudis, Qataris and the Emiratis.
This time they only informed the Russians. And launched ballistic missiles instead of cruise missiles. Even though the vast majority got through, they had relatively smaller warheads. All things suggesting that this too was a warning, but a much firmer one.
And looking at the way Israel is still acting, I can safely say that we're probably a few days away from the 3rd one.
👍
Kheibar (Khoramshahr-4) =/= Kheibar-shekan. Kheibar wasn't used in the attack.
Did Iran some how switch of some Israeli rocket batteries in that zone it didnt seem there were enough iron dome rockets fired of to stop them is this true or did they travel some where else ?
The air defense does calculations to see where the missile will land most likely. If it somewhere that will be in the desert or in the middle of nowhere they don’t try to intercept it. Thus leaving more interceptors for missiles or rockets that could do damage.
Iron dome does not intercept ballistic missiles.
Iron dome interceptors are very slow and can't really intercept supersonic threats, let alone ballistic missiles. It was designed to intercept short range rockets and mortars.
@@556m4 Dude you can see the rockets are only a few miles way from the border
@@92HazelMocha They are not supersonic you could run faster than those compare them to the IDF you cant even see the IDF rockets there so fast
Does an exoatmospheric explosion necessitate an interception?
we always heard this 90%, you'd think they are talking about syrian presidential elections votes xd
Why is the rockets or missile is bright like fireworks, shouldn't the rockets exhausted all thier propellant and fall in a ballistic trajectory? Compare to other iron dome videos, the rocket intercepted have no light/engine trails....Anyone have any explaination?
You are a smart, keenly observant, and extensively learned individual...and you know pretty well that what happened on Oct 1st was extremely relevant in military terms. And you probably know also that Iran gave Russia and the USA about 1-hour advance notice of the attack...which nobody in their right mind would've done if their intention was to cause maximal damage. The lesson that day was that the hypersonic Fatta missiles were able to slice through the "iron dome" like a knife through butter. Every single one of them (around 10 or so?), for neither you nor them under the dome have any way to intercept such highly hypersonic maneuvering weapons. They were not expecting this at all, and that is the sole reason why they haven't yet mounted a counter attack (which they will, I know, but now they know it's going to be exponentially more difficult to be successful and remain safe while doing so. Furthermore, Finland, Lithuana, Estonia, Poland, Rumania, and Germany now know what is going to happen to their military bases 15 minutes after they decide to preemptively attack the Russian Federation (+Belarus and Novarossiya)., for if the Fattas made it through the infamous dome, the russians have a gamut of hypersonic washing machines that in all likelihood are significantly more effective.
i think it's obvious that the iranian along with hezbollah and hamas developped the strategy of overwhelming the air-defences
so using cheap low tech missiles as the bulk of the attack is key to exhaust the airdefence, then use guided high tech missiles in the midst to hit the valuable assets, so those success rates are irrelevant to show how effective the defence strategy is
also the talk about 0 civilians losses, just show either ignorant about the goal of iranian strike they are which is unprogable or just propaganda which is more likely.
For Iran hitting or showing they can hit military and inteligence targets inside Israel when no other country did before (during the wars with other arab countries) was to show that Iran is a powerful regional power, and they mean business, and so they want to force the USA to take them seriously in future negotiations which is smart.
While those who talk about total war and 0 sum game are thinking like losers.
God I miss this neutrality in the media if ever they had one
Did you see craters?
13:50 that accuracy looks very bad and dispersed. Maybe some of those hits were warheads that were damaged by interceptors, but continued on their ballistic path without guidance? Or maybe the accuracy is just that bad.
One of the Iranian most contemporary missile Emad has official accuracy of 50 meters. And it's much likely they fire older generations of missiles in this wave. So, I think it's pretty accurate for the type of technology.
Helloo
Great against SCUDS and homemade rockets. But against modern ballistic and hypersonic missiles, hopeless, as seen on TV 😂😂😂
Armageddon is standing on Mankind's doorstep. Let's hope that it will not ring the bell. Thank you, Mister Millennium 7, your videos are always interesting. God bless.
A few points to raise:
- Seeing as some impacts were bigger than others it may be that not every single one corresponds to a unique missile. Whether it was an intercept, some form of cluster munition, or large chunks of debris from a nearby missile impact it's possible that many of the smaller impacts correspond to a much smaller number of missiles.
- Air defense only shoots down threats that are expected to hit populated areas or military bases. Anything that would hit outside of the designated areas will not be intercepted. It's difficult to say which of the impacts captured on video were failed interceptions that hit their targets and which were allowed to go through and hit dirt
Overall the attack is rather interesting. It wasn't completely ineffective, and while the 72% success rate in the video seems a bit pessimistic, the effectiveness of air defense rapidly reduces as it's being overwhelmed. That is to say an attack utilizing all 3000 missiles wouldn't do 16 times the damage but much more.
At the same time Iran doesn't want to go so far because not only will Israel respond immediately and without restraint, but the U.S is also likely to join in on the attack. This puts them in an interesting situation. Iranian leadership lost much face recently, which forced them to attack in a way that deals some damage, but also allows deescalation. This necessitated they use their missiles in a suboptimal manner insofar as causing damage is concerned, while draining a few percent of their total reserves.
Assuming this continues Irans missile threat will grow smaller and smaller as the war drags on. I guess they will make progressively stronger attacks as the conflict goes on in an attempt to keep the U.S from directly intervening, while also trying to get more bang(on target) for their bang. I find it amusing how politics manage to affect ballistic missile hit rates, it feels like some contrived video game mechanic.
😂😂😂😂 no matter how many missiles they fire they’ll cause no damage since they are too afraid to do so (they are stupid two hour notice )😂😂
Check out yesterdays news. C-70 Ochotnik has ben soot down over Donbas.
By a Russian jet. Likely control was lost to the drone.
Literally shot down by Su-57
By Su 57...
Iron dome is crazy
Is garbage 😂
You embarrass yourself like this when you comment before watching the video. Iron dome has no role in countering ballistic threats.
Iron dome is for garage built rockets not exoatmospheric ballistic missiles
@@jps2363 👎
I wonder how greatly you pronounced the persian words ;-)
How are you different from CNN? Quoting IDF regarding Iran is exactly the same as quoting Wikipedia... But that's all you do, isn't it? At least we have the vacuum cleaner to distract us from your "wisdom". P.S.: I'm looking forward to seeing the video in which you quote Bill Gates regarding the effectiveness of some vaccines and his artificial meat.
@@Bulgarian_Rebel Jesus relax, he is easily one of the least biased sources in English speaking youtube
Congratulations to Iran 🇮🇷 for standing up to the oppressor to help the oppressed!
If Iran can do this imagine what Russia can do with it's many varieties of missiles and rockets, arrogant people will get a wake up call when sh!t hits the fan.
Irans stockpiles are larger than Russian ones at the moment. Production dates on the missiles used in ukraine suggest Russia is launching them as fast as they can build them.
Not including nuclear of course, any use of those would result in global extinction.
@@James-rl5tj No one knows either country's stockpile or rate of production
@Mr.mysterious76 more or less. It is standard practice to use older stocks first. So if a nation is launching recently produced weapons it suggests they do not have much in stock.
Tf wrong in middle East
so apparently su57 got first air to air kill... against su70
They already got 5 F-16 ^^
Bravo Iran 👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
after the whole pager thing, expect everything coming from Israel being "doctored", satellite images certainly, lol.
Any country operating satellites with decent imaging capabilities can embarrass them if they're lying - Iran could just ask the Chinese or Russia to confirm?