Lay Over 4.5 Goals
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 6 июн 2024
- Lay Over 4.5 Goals
Welcome back to Trading the Market! In this video, we're introducing a game-changing strategy that's about to revolutionize your betting game - laying over 4.5 goals on the Betfair Exchange. But this isn't just any strategy; it's a set-and-forget method that could potentially maximize your profits without constant monitoring or stressful decision-making.
Join us as we unravel the secrets behind laying over 4.5 goals, explaining how it works, and why you need to add this to your trading portfolio. We'll break down the mechanics of the strategy and showcase three months worth of results, demonstrating its effectiveness and potential for profitability.
Discover how to filter viable selections using key criteria such as Attack and Defense relevance and the Magic Number, and learn how to apply this strategy on the exchange to capitalize on matches with a higher likelihood of fewer goals being scored.
With a remarkable strike rate of 99.35% on over 201 trades, this Trading the Market original strategy is poised to redefine how you approach betting. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your betting approach and maximize your gains.
🔔 Subscribe to Trading the Market for more innovative strategies and tips to boost your profits in the betting world. 
Спорт
I am only here to help.
Trolls will be removed.
👋
When generating stats for the over and under goals market, can you advise if you include a teams goals scored and conceaded to estimate their average?
2 losses across 200 games over 5 months returning nearly £28,000 is superb. Congratulations!
Top content. Trading the market ❤
Very nice. Thanks a lot Lord James.
Fantastic video as ever James, and what a brilliant ROI for laying at quite high odds. Very impressed and certainly one to add to the list. Thanks for taking the time to share with us.
Great video and fantastic delivery, thanks again and well done Lord James🎉
Interesting, what i really liked this time is you showed us exactly the filters to use. I will paper trade for the remainder of the year and will post the results. Hoping for the same or simular strike rate. Dont think i will better 100% though, unless i use accounting practice used by BTC ......ha ha.
Absolutely loved this video and something im 100% going to try. Cheers guys :)
Always interesting videos, great job...
Cheers gents, really interesting strategy. Another original.
Looking forward to seeing 'Laurel & Hardy's version!
I miss the value here. If you hit in general 80% you can not lay above odds 5.0... all depends on value of the odds.
Great video. One comment. When you filter by colour you can choose the No Fill option instead of colour.
. That picks all items in the column that are not "Green"
Gave this a run yesterday. 6 games traded. 100% strike rate. Fantastic content as always guys 👍
💥💥💥
what values did you set Att v Def & Magic Number to.
Great video on an interesting idea. Some impressive numbers on the trial trades there! If you can stomach the high liabilities! Definitely going to be having a look at this.
Good vid - will be interesting to follow the results for a month myself. Probably sod's law stepping in but used the sheet and filtered to get the games for today (7 April) using the tighter criteria that it looks like the vid used ( +- 4 for attacking and +- 10 for the Magic Number). Threw up 11 selections... 3 games had 4 goals and 2 actually lost! End result using £150 stakes would have been a £650 loss!
Variance is a thing of course, so will keep an eye on this as it looks awesome overall. Certainly, now we are in April the Europe leagues do seem to have more goals in them. A 3.5MG strategy I have always has a worse SR in April and May....
hi, are there specific leagues you would look to avoid? EG, on 23rd March there are LOADS showing after using the filters, what else would you look for to reduce the amount? Thanks in advance :)
Hi there, strategy looks good, but how far in advance of the game can you get those kind of amounts matched as I've looked today and some of the lesser games have low amounts of liquidity
In your website, how accurate are the correct score predictions?
What's ur criteria for Relevance 2 and MN? like threshold, the golden middle, or something like that,
Thank you for this. Im subscribed and have just joined you on discord.
Very interesting James many thanks, ill look at seeing if i can automate this ?
Any way to use the spreadsheets on a Chromebook?
Hi there. Brilliant video! Thank you and your team for all you do. Can I ask if the results shown are from the 1st set of filters or the second set of filters you showed on the video? Thank you :)
The results in the spreadsheet are using the best possible criteria, which was shown at the end of the video 👍🏻
Brilliant video James with fantastic results! Thank you to you and all the team at TTM for your generosity in sharing your strategies - I don't know anyone else who is doing this and articulating things so clearly.
Please can I check, is one of the criteria to use the strategy only on leagues above 80% for under 4.5 goals? Or doesn't this matter if you are sticking to the AvD, Magic #, and odds
James can confirm, but I don't think that matters, it was just for reference. I think the criteria is the important part 👍
Thank you@@markwoz4289 👍
Match selection is crucial here. I think it can work but blindly backing any game could be problematic. I would look for value in the price also. So in the example at 6:40 the odds are 4.8 to lay. In the EPL (going back 4 seasons) 17% of games end up over 4.5, converted to odds thats 5.88 so anything under this is good. In fact odds of 4.8 implies that 20.8% of games in the EPL finish >4.5 which the historic data doesnt support.
The 100% matches are extracted from Excel sheets???? Very good job !!!!
How do you choose which numbers you pick for the attack defense and magic number? I mean why did you use lower/higher ones than the excel sheet recommend?(-7/7 -3.5/3.5) Does it depend on how many games fit in the criteria?
The higher the Magic Number the less likely of goals in a match.
The lower the relevance the more evenly matched the teams will be in regards to if they are both really good at attacking/defending or both really poor at attacking/defending.
How do I get that spreadsheet?
i know this is a set and forget strategy. but would it be prudent to wait till a couple of goals have gone in possibly odds, will shorten and liability will be less ?
less liability and increased risk, if 2 goals go in the price shortens to simply reflect the probability of *only* needing 3 goals to go > 4.5 as opposed to 5.
HI, please can you let me know how you get the TTM spreadsheet you used?
www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/
nice video again - i have a question - is it possible to download the excel betting tracker? I'd like to be more professional about my betting and would like to document all my bets. Cheers
Everything you need is right here for free.
www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/
have you ever considered applying this with a cash out at 80 minutes or 85 minutes. This would increase strike rate and last minute goals..
Hello, Thanks for sharing knowledge, I don't understand why sometimes they do Lay to Over and other times Back to Under, be it 2.5 or 3.5 or 4.5. What benefit does each one have or when do I use each one. I am from Argentina, it is done with a translator, sorry for the errors. Thank you very much for the valuable content you offer.
When you're trading under markets, the odds will always drop/shorten, so you will need to Back first and then Lay to make a profit and the opposite for the overs market the odds will always drift/rise so you need to Lay and then Back to make a profit.
The goal markets you mention, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, etc, are used in different strategies.
Hello there in Argentina 💪🏻 hope you understand my reply 👍🏻
Great video, wanted to give it a go so after watching it, I looked through the spreadsheet and picked out Dortmund v Eintract, £5 lay @3.7 Dortmund got a penalty in the 93rd minute to make it 3-1, squeaky bum time 😂 but the trade pulled through, boom 😂👍🏻
Treat the liability in big lay prices as the stake. If the lay is 7.2 for example and you only want to risk £100 you would stake £16 which would be a liability of £99.20. An indicator for a game with low number of goals is the 0-0 odds at the start of the game. If there is low odds of 10.0 and under lower the better I have seen odds as low as 6.00. I prefer to do odds on lays as you risk less than the amount you stake. I like to look for the boring 0-0 games with my portfolio. Games that are 0-0 at half time are usually the best to analyze with a low number of shots on target. It is profitable to trade on events that are going to stay the same rather than predicting what is going to happen if you get me.
Thank you very much John!!! Magic column is a real magic))) But I've just a one question, what the difference between LAY O4.5 and BACK U4.5, is it the same profit and loss?
Back and lay are not the same. Laying will return 100% of stake if it wins. Backing will only return 20% of stake if it wins.
@@pclayto3mate, but if we have back for 1.23 with stake 50£ for example with 11.50 profit and loss 50, and lay for 5.2 odds with stake 11.50 (same profit and same loss) say me pls if I’m not right
@@Jaguarko08 yes, in your example you are right.
How do we get the latest version of the sheet if the "update data" button isn't working. Thanks.
www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/
Great video mate what % of your bank would you suggest using for this strategy
I would use only 1-5% in liability of your bank 👍🏻
Hi James, can you do this strat using the daily sheet off the website? Thanks.
100% you can 👍🏻
Interesting strategy and one I will test, but what happened to using stakes that are realistic (such as in your other videos). That was always welcome and refreshing versus most of the dross on RUclips. ROI is ROI at the end of the day, but risking potentially £800+ on a single game is not reflective of most people's situation I would think. That aside, great video and thanks for sharing. I'm guessing the results would be significantly impacted if even just 1-2 of those matches with 1 goal to failure landed, but 3 months is a decent sample size
Hi mate, I’ll be able to answer this. I see your point of course.
James has circumstances which mean he isn’t neccessarily in front of the computer anywhere near he would be in normal circumstances so he’s used this strategy to maintain his income. It worked, so he recorded the trades and here we are!
@@mattg8855no problem. Thanks
Just checked out those 4 matches left in your data sheet
Empoli vs Salernitana ended 1-3 so just passed but Hamburger SV lost 3-4
Ahhhhh that is me showing the strategy floors ☺️
Show me any strategy that wins 100% of the time.
I'll wait...
You are absolutely right none does but most dont lost up to £10 per £1 laid. This is so where this strategy becomes undone.
@eyesarewatching7205
not being funny but if you can't make this strategy work for you
maybe you should choose another one you're more comfortable with ?
you mean flaws not floors right?
Is there any additional filters? I just took a random weekend from the past and the hit rate is nowhere near 98%
what date weekend was that ?
Magic number and relevance mate
Awesome video James and what amazing results. You guys are always ahead of the game. Lets see how the chuckle brothers try to put their name to this strategy.
To me to you 🤣
How to filter the sheet to look for matches below -7 & +7?
You will have to elaborate more.
Which filter are you trying to use for a start? To filter below these values, you will need to untick all the boxes above -7 and +7, for example -8 -9 -10, etc, and +8 +9 +10, etc
Does anyone advocate hitting the cash out button at any point with this strategy when a couple of early goals go in? Take a loss and move on?
It's entirely up to you how you want to play it.
If you feel cashing out for a controlled loss is in your best interest then feel free to do so. The same could be said of the opposite - If you are in the green and have a 60-80% profit to take with 20 mins of the match still to play then take the green if you are more comfortable doing so.
James, about this Magic Number you've tantalisingly dangled....are you offering it? 😉😁 You can't just leave a key component out of an otherwise very compelling strategy!
Interesting idea but think the liabilities needed may put a few off one loss could potentially fk u up especially if it’s early on in your trading , still a good video tho guys will defo have a look at it over next few weeks 👍🏻
I see how it could put people off. It makes a profit, people always want to lay at 1.01 and use the risk of backing at 1000 with a pound. The prices are higher as it less likely to happen.
@@TradingTheMarket I will have a look definitely I just see the down side to everything lol if you lost on your first one or lost on a couple on your first few goes it could be extremely costly that’s all but like I say still very interesting and will look at it myself to 👍🏻
I am trying with very small stakeand build from there if I can get it working.
Just paper trade initially, then use extremely small stakes. The numbers don't lie, so once you have some profit, just recycle it. Gradually increase your stakes, using only what you've already won. If you do hit a loss, then reduce stakes accordingly. If you're patient and disciplined, using tiny initial stakes, your initial worries will be eased and, you'll have some solid figures of your own to then build on. I've taken this approach many times and found that enough numbers never lie! Good luck mate.
Could you not wait see if there’s an early goal and then lay too get less liability?
You could but this is not the strategy I follow and not something I would ever do 👍
not set and forget then is it? You need to be following every game you have backed to see if a goal is scored.
with the games that were only 1 goal away how many of those games had a red card ?
Didn't record red card data mate, I did it as set and forget.
Where do we get the green/white chart from? Is it your own property?
You can download it here completely free.
www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/
Thanks for the spreadsheet. But I must confess I'm baffled by it! First it does not seem to update itself when I hit the UPDATE DATA button. And I cannot work out where to find the suitable teams for LESS THAN 4.5 bets. Please advise or refer me to the part of your video which deals with this. Since watching your video yesterday I have placed penny bets on 12 matches, selected at random from Betfair, and all have won. So I am looking forward to doing even better using your spreadsheet. You re a star.
Just watched your vid again. I can now see that columns BA and BB in the spread are the ones for me. And avoiding the greens. Thats great. I just need help updating the spread.
@brianh5075 discord.com/invite/z2rrrjysmB join our free Discord mate and any questions you may have can be directed and answered with ease in there 👍🏻
fewer than😉
How do you get a spreadsheet of under 4.5 goals?
You can download the spreadsheet from here absolutely free.
www.tradingthemarket.co.uk/
@@TradingTheMarket cheers pal.
Very nice movie. What should you take into account when looking for matches to bet on under 4.5 goals? Regards
All you need is the criteria i have set out. I do have an updated video detailing this even more so 👍🏻
Absolutely amazing video James ❤
Amazing strategy! And one I will be using.
It Shocks me to see people be so negative about something so amazing, which was provided to them for FREE! Thank you again 🍻❤️👏
Another strategy for high bank rolls.
You can always flip it and simply back the under 4.5 so instead of laying at 10.0 back at 1.11, smaller gains but reduced liability.
Did a small test of this over the last week or so using the criteria stated - 19 matches in total.
Started off well. The first 13 matches were all winners, only 1 match even hitting1 goal away.
In the next 6 games, there's been 4 losers. At the stakes shown in the video I'd currently be over £18k down. Thank god I used £1 stakes and not more.
Not sure how the system only hit 2 losers in just over 200 trades in the video yet I've managed to hit 4 in 19 but hey ho.
did you trade every game ?
@@lukemcmillan5264 the ones that matched the criteria on the sheet as shown in the video, were within the odds range, and that were available to trade on betfair, yeah.
@markwoz4289
you should of used his revised filters at the end of the video
I didn't have any losing trades over the weekend
It can all come down to game selection.
Over the course of the three months I had only traded 201 selections when in fact there was probably close to 600-800 possible selections total over that time period.
Less is more.
Something to consider also...
We are coming to the business end of the European leagues now and form can go out of the window with everything and nothing to play for.
Tread carefully and good luck 💪
I thought maybe BTC had a legal injunction against you given the length of time between presentations!!!
Nah nothing like that, you can't prosecute the truth. We have been working on something big, which has taken time. Watch out for the video next week.
so you didnt trade these games then you just paper tested the picks ?
I traded all 201 matches.
Where have yous been? BTC were hoping yous were finished😂😂
I tried this and the first day and was up £40 but next day a loss on two games resulting in a £160 down .......brutal
Match selection is crucial.
Only trade with stakes you are totally comfortable with.
We are coming to the business end of the European leagues now and form can go out of the window with everything and nothing to play for.
When will the podcast be back? Amd also that sheet looks slightly differently to the one on the site, are there any major differences? Oh and tweedle dee and dweedle dumber said buy our software🤣🤣🤣
The podcast will be back at some point, I don't have a time frame for that, unfortunately.
And yes, the sheet I use is different slightly as I have my own added stats etc
Ur great with this man love ur videos but this is one strategy that failed man I done over 200 games trade on this 10 wins couple lost and am right down
10 wins out of 200 trades and a couple lost, what about the other 188 trades?
that's because you profiled the games using your system and not ttm way
obviously your system is a failure and you need to ditch it
Hull City U21 v Colchester United U21 26 March picked off the TTM sheet score 5 goals. I think there is a flaw in this cunning plan Baldrick.
relevance was a bit high for that game
what were the pre odds on betfair ?
@@lukemcmillan5264 low LOL. TTM sheet is swapping to formula dream't up by a digital Heath Robinson, instead of just reading the market odds.
@stephensmart3155
it's not a game I traded as the relevance was too high for me
you say odds were low but didn't actually say what the odds were for over 4.5
@@lukemcmillan5264 I am trading based on the odds. Either 4.5 or 5.5 goal lines min 8.0 max 15. I then leg out so that my odds match the goal line below. If an early goal occurs I double up the stake once and trade out with min loss.
"Promosm"
I tried this over 17 games last Saturday using the exact settings I lost 3 out 17 games 🤢
what were the games that lost ?
I would be intrigued to know what games you used this on last Saturday as the video only went live at 8:30pm in the evening 👀
@@TradingTheMarket Here they are 3 out of 17 with 5 goals 23 March. Aveley v St Albans City, Dartford v Hemel Hempstead Town, Dagenham & Redbridge v Oldham, Chorley v Boston United, Peterborough Sports v Blyth Spartans, Burton Albion v Port Vale, Wealdstone v Kidderminster Harriers, Barrow v Newport County, Stenhousemuir v Peterhead, Morecambe v Gillingham 5, Altrincham v Gateshead 5, Elgin City v Forfar Athletic, Chester v South Shields, Braintree v Yeovil Town,Hereford v Farsley Celtic FC 5, Brackley Town v Alfreton Town.
yeah it hurts big time, lost a lot too
Sat results, wolves 2-3 Ipswich 6-0 lincoln5-0 Kilmarnock 5-2 Mansfield 5-1 Dagenham-1 ebbs fleet 4-2falkirk4-1 airdrie 5-2 alloa 5-2 dumbarton6-2 so your strategy is in the bin then
Not a troll simply facts
Did all of those matches meet the selection criteria?
your comment should be in a bin
none of the games met his criteria
you must be a troll or haven't a clue what day it is
watch the video and you might learn something
that's why he has 27000 in his pocket and you have 27 pence 😅
😂
@johnmartin1492 we're wasting our breaths mate.
My biggest issue here is it's going to lose alot of people money but we've pre-warned.
All we can do is know better avoid such stupidity lol
Great videos but get to the point mate. The content is like a padded out book instead of a concise article. Less wiff waff more bish bosh 👍
No worries buddy. Try another channel
@@TradingTheMarket no worries bud, try less salt
Not that much waffle, and I enjoy it. The strategy is so simple, with no waffle a 1 minute video.
@@laurencedamazer2260 I agree, interesting play pre match. Any early goal and it opens up more opportunity. I always end up skipping videos forward to get the bish bosh.
It was worth 10 minutes of anyone's time. Thankyou.
This will not work long term.
The amount of games that have 5 goals these days or more this is the worst strategy I've ever encountered and you slag others off.
Yesterday wolves game alone had 4 goals in under 10 minutes.
This is doomed to fail
Wolves was a cup game mind so there wouldn't have been data there to make it a valid selection.
By quoting the Wolves game it is clear you haven't quite grasped the rules as laid out in the video.
That's a load of hogwash it's the norm to have 5 goals these days.
Look at Wolves vs Man u 3-4 Wolves vs Brentford there was 3 goals in 4 minutes in that game nobody saw this coming.
Luton vs Newcastle 4-4 Luton vs Arsenal 3-4 Bournemouth vs Luton 4-3
Even teams expected no goals Sheffield United Vs Everton 2-2 Bournemouth vs Sheff United 2-2 yes this strat would of won those last two but only by a whisker.
No amount of data is worth that liability on that strategy.
This is a bad strategy end of discussion
Did all of those matches met the criteria?
Have you seen this emoji mate? It was made for you 🤡🤡🤡
@@markwoz4289 your the clown criteria or not a set and forget over 4.5 is just stupid why would anyone risk 1.5k for a few hundred quid.
Even on low stakes it just isn't beneficial.
The risk to reward is radiculously high.
Surprised by TTM for this are you guys really even traders????
This video is terrible advice.
Horrible strategy.. its like you are betting 1k on 1.01 or 1.02 … promoting it in 2024 its a disgrace.. whats next? Martingale? I am sick of this industry…🤮
Great Strategy.. It's like I am laying a £150 stake at odds of 6.0 to 9.0 ... promoting it for free in 2024 ... it's like I am living in the moment.. What next? FML.. Not Martingale🙄I am sick of this comment... 🤮
Go play Fifa ☠️