Very nice interview. Niraj has an uncanny ability to precisely represent and wear viewers hat and ask top of mind questions. Be it credit vs bond or mid cycle investment decisions or market correlations, he would ask these perfect questions and that too exactly at a time this occur to most of us
Good explanation I would also interpret his POV as Early cycle - Growth investing / small and mid caps Mid cycle - Quality investing / Large Caps, where we seem to be. End cycle - hybrid and debt funds ( prefer hybrids as they do tax efficient and automatic asset allocation). One can look at aggressive hybrids, balanced advantage / multi asset and conservative hybrid funds
Honest fund manager and glad to see anchor not pushing on “ when FII’s will come to India” Nifty is still fair valued” (without banks), economy is growing like no other country bla bla short of shying the truth that if economy is growing where r the jobs ? Why blame Indians r not educated for modern day job market ? Dong we have a fat cow Education ministry in every state and parliament? Don’t we have an industry minister in every state and Parliament? Don’t we have Nifty 150 or 500 that’s sucking Indian wealth without creating jobs? RBI has played its role but what about the Niti ayog ? Why no one speaks of Niti ayog. All they did is digitized India to garner taxes. If we eliminate defence and infrastructure where is the growth ?
Where is infrastructure growth as well? This govt has destroyed the country just like the previous one. No more expectations from such useless finance ministry.
Given the current market conditions, a balanced approach that diversifies across equity, economy, and credit is recommended, with a focus on high-quality stocks, short-term bonds, and a keen eye on economic trends to navigate potential volatility.
agree, diversification is key in uncertain times. But what constitutes high-quality stocks? For me, it's not just about chasing past performance or following the crowd. It's about identifying companies with strong fundamentals, a proven track record, and a competitive edge.
First and foremost, I look for companies with solid balance sheets, minimal debt, and a history of generating consistent earnings. I want to see a demonstrated ability to weather economic storms and adapt to changing market conditions.
But what about credit risk? How do we mitigate that? Credit risk is a crucial consideration, especially in uncertain times. When we invest in bonds or other fixed-income instruments, we're essentially lending money to the issuer. And that means we need to be confident in their ability to pay us back
We need to be selective about the issuers we lend to. We should also diversify our credit exposure across different issuers, industries, and asset classes. This can help reduce our reliance on any one particular issuer and minimize the impact of a potential default.
If core inflation is super depressed then food inflation is super skyrocketing! Decrease interest rate bring in more money and ensure inflation mainly food inflation remains elevated. Isnt it? So far Government is super failure when it comes to controlling food inflation. 🙏
Taxation on credit over equity tilts the balance in favour of equities. Further the cut in rates will bring down the cost of borrowing even by corporates so it will bring down the return on credit as well….unless you are referring to returns in credit risk space will be higher than equity over the next few years. One clarification would have made things clear is by bonds you mean govt securities and by credit you mean corporate bonds.
If the balance sheets of our companies ( assuming large caps) are clean , then the valuations (equities) should be justified. I would still go for large caps instead of bonds.
Niraj has to work on the background screen. It may be very tough for many to watch this show… as it can cause nausea for many. I wonder how he manages.
Credit Risk funds, eg: ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund. But you have to pay tax at slab rates. eg: even if you get 10% from the fund, you take home only 7% (if you are in 30% tax bracket), hence not that great investment.
I, am also thinking same This Time not actually USA But China over Capicty and Deflation are worry some The Price of Tommorow by Jeff booth iS good book to Readt about Deflation
We are not gonna go into the early phase so soon as the negatives aren't as weighted as much as the positives with the current rate cut sentiment ...imo with the increased liquidity , more funds will come in the market but into quality midcaps ..of purse the big elephants held by fund houses and managers aren't performing as well as their growth has stagnated many quarters back and will further compress...holding quality midcaps and small caps with patience this bull cycle with upcoming rate cuts is the way to go imo .ofcourse corrections wicome but they will be shallow and rapid which will bring even more funds in quality ...only a huge unexpected negative will lead to a market crash imo...
i would rather say we were not in early cycle just after covid as commodity prices were up ultimately inflation was up and markets factor in the cost through increasing services and products prices. we can see the revenue numbers were up not for the high demands of the products and services but prices increase. yes demand was increase but it was just to buy the necessities as per the individual class. markets just factor in the inflation not the actual growth. cost of living went up. even consumer demand didn't breach compare it to prior to the Covid pandemic. so we were actually recovering from the covid not accelerating the economy. around the glob markets were expecting recession but Covid created stag situation. interrupted supply change but still we have to see the macro economic and demand side that will create the recession. it was a supply side recession.
Revenue numbers were up, yes, maybe due to higher sale prices as you say. But wouldn't the input costs of companies to produce goods be higher too? So if profits were also growing, then it was real growth, isn't it?
@@tarun9542 you observation is true. However if we apply different ratios to ascertain the efficiency and growth of the companies with pre covid times then it will better reflect the position. Some sectors no doubt performed outstanding specifically IT. But I am of the opinion that demand side starters influence will always be closer to reality. Whether high demand or low demand. Supply side has to make adjustments.
@@arifkhan-sy1it Which sectors specifically do you think had increased revenue growth due to higher prices but not actual demand? I am of the opinion that there was pent up demand from the lockdowns, so all that demand came when lockdowns were removed. Like auto sector, it was doing badly before covid, negligible sales during covid, and then suddenly all that demand from previous years came in 2021-22. Car prices were through the roof, but so were the manufacturing input costs due to shortages and supply chain disruptions.
@@tarun9542 Yes auto sales went up as lower intrest rates favoured the buyers. IT was in real growth and it has created new avenues for other business after Covid. So IT growth is likely to sustain with new adoption and more awareness. Auto sector is not performing well since 2023 with rising interest rates. Coming lower intrest rates won't be able to support the demand due to inflationary pressure. So market either through slow landing or sharp fall will create a balance.
Correct. Not just him but many have been preaching froth , overvaluation and so on. What looks frothy is gonna become more frothy before it busts, the problem is if u miss the froth rally , one misses a verv large meaty return too. While no one shoupd expect an exact exit, my sense is there are good ways to know how to cut , trim off positions as and when it looks bubbly. Eg. Defence ship building and Railways went 10 tk 30x , it's obvious they'll correct or be jn sidelines some newbies kept buying it , that's where kne gets trapped. Smart people kept booking profits at regular interval.
All that growth which was saw in UPA 1 was due to Atal ji's work in same as Infra development work done during 99-2004 such as PM Gram Sadak Yojna, Golden Qadrilateral etc. Please note all Infra work captlital goods cycle take positive effect in the economy after some years as they are all capital intensive. Unfortunately the moment UPA 2 came , a complete policg paralysis was observed which brought our economy to sub 4% growth.
@@deepeshsao1008: What use is growth to 81 crore Indians who survive on Charity of 5 Kg grains. What Vajpayee was able to do in infra was due to reforms carried out by Manmohan Singh.
@@pardeeptandon A poor man is always poor not coz of lack of opportunities but coz of his lack of hard and smart work. Good luck with Cial , 2G scams and khata khat once they come to power. Remember promised 1 lakh would have no value of 1 lakh once given as a freebie and be ready for hyper inflation once pappu implements it.
@@deepeshsao1008: In a Decade, Modani could not get convicted in the Courts of any culprit of 2 G. The BJP was responsible for electoral bonds, and the SC declared them illegal. No investigation has even started in this declared illegal act, where even a financial trail is available. As per you, the 5 kg grains given as charity to 81 crores are not freebies and are a sign of economic growth at a FAST clip. Of course, RS 1500 per woman given last week in Maharashtra is not a freebie. The same was done in MP. We have poverty in India because Brahmins and Pandits have been responsible for spreading education since Vedic times. But they used the charity we gave them for spreading education and doing public good-and it is still used for their personal well-being. Even today, the charity we give at 1,80,000 Hindu temples is used by government-appointed Brahmin trustees for personal use. Recently, 300 KG of Gold went missing from a temple at Uttra Khand. The temple's head priest alleges this.
Very nice interview. Niraj has an uncanny ability to precisely represent and wear viewers hat and ask top of mind questions. Be it credit vs bond or mid cycle investment decisions or market correlations, he would ask these perfect questions and that too exactly at a time this occur to most of us
Excellent views shared by Mr. Maneesh Dangi on the given context, Im happy to see and listened to this opinion on Indian Equity and others.
Good explanation
I would also interpret his POV as
Early cycle - Growth investing / small and mid caps
Mid cycle - Quality investing / Large Caps, where we seem to be.
End cycle - hybrid and debt funds ( prefer hybrids as they do tax efficient and automatic asset allocation). One can look at aggressive hybrids, balanced advantage / multi asset and conservative hybrid funds
As always, very valuable insights from Manish Dangi Sir. ❤❤❤
finally someone talking without too much optimism about equity..😒😒
Very nice. I like this Maneesh Dangi and his data/trend backed analysis instead of baseless hype
Honest fund manager and glad to see anchor not pushing on “ when FII’s will come to India” Nifty is still fair valued” (without banks), economy is growing like no other country bla bla short of shying the truth that if economy is growing where r the jobs ? Why blame Indians r not educated for modern day job market ? Dong we have a fat cow Education ministry in every state and parliament? Don’t we have an industry minister in every state and Parliament? Don’t we have Nifty 150 or 500 that’s sucking Indian wealth without creating jobs? RBI has played its role but what about the Niti ayog ? Why no one speaks of Niti ayog. All they did is digitized India to garner taxes. If we eliminate defence and infrastructure where is the growth ?
Where is infrastructure growth as well? This govt has destroyed the country just like the previous one. No more expectations from such useless finance ministry.
Manish Danghi is a good educator..
Thnks for such a wonderful show...🙏🙏🙏🙏
In TN if you buy land politicians will ask for commission and if you have house 🏠 flood 🏊♂️ affects better stay away physical assest 😂😂😂😂
Invest in Large cap stocks only below 25%-30%😮
Given the current market conditions, a balanced approach that diversifies across equity, economy, and credit is recommended, with a focus on high-quality stocks, short-term bonds, and a keen eye on economic trends to navigate potential volatility.
agree, diversification is key in uncertain times. But what constitutes high-quality stocks? For me, it's not just about chasing past performance or following the crowd. It's about identifying companies with strong fundamentals, a proven track record, and a competitive edge.
First and foremost, I look for companies with solid balance sheets, minimal debt, and a history of generating consistent earnings. I want to see a demonstrated ability to weather economic storms and adapt to changing market conditions.
But what about credit risk? How do we mitigate that? Credit risk is a crucial consideration, especially in uncertain times. When we invest in bonds or other fixed-income instruments, we're essentially lending money to the issuer. And that means we need to be confident in their ability to pay us back
We need to be selective about the issuers we lend to. We should also diversify our credit exposure across different issuers, industries, and asset classes. This can help reduce our reliance on any one particular issuer and minimize the impact of a potential default.
I completely agree. That’s why I work with a CFA, to manage my credit exposure. He’s an expert in credit risk management with a strong track record
It is really very informative. Thank you sir.
If core inflation is super depressed then food inflation is super skyrocketing!
Decrease interest rate bring in more money and ensure inflation mainly food inflation remains elevated. Isnt it?
So far Government is super failure when it comes to controlling food inflation.
🙏
🙏🙏 very good explanation 🙏🙏🙏
What is the difference between credit and bond. I use to think they are same.
Fall in automobile sales is a concern right now
Taxation on credit over equity tilts the balance in favour of equities. Further the cut in rates will bring down the cost of borrowing even by corporates so it will bring down the return on credit as well….unless you are referring to returns in credit risk space will be higher than equity over the next few years. One clarification would have made things clear is by bonds you mean govt securities and by credit you mean corporate bonds.
Great Insights 🎉
Very good analysis.. Thank you
If the balance sheets of our companies ( assuming large caps) are clean , then the valuations (equities) should be justified. I would still go for large caps instead of bonds.
*_Kudos_*_ ❤ but, How to invest in _*_Credit market?_*_ , need bit more clarification_
Debt Mutual fund
Gilt fund safest
Super explanation 🎉🎉
Niraj has to work on the background screen. It may be very tough for many to watch this show… as it can cause nausea for many. I wonder how he manages.
❤ i try my best not to miss any interview or note from Maneesh Dangi
How to invest in credit fund
Millon dollar question which dangi has carefully evaded
Credit Risk funds, eg: ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund. But you have to pay tax at slab rates. eg: even if you get 10% from the fund, you take home only 7% (if you are in 30% tax bracket), hence not that great investment.
Moving backgrounds give headache! Stop it
😂😂😂😂
I, am also thinking same
This Time not actually USA But China
over Capicty and Deflation are worry some
The Price of Tommorow by Jeff booth iS good book to Readt about Deflation
We are not gonna go into the early phase so soon as the negatives aren't as weighted as much as the positives with the current rate cut sentiment ...imo with the increased liquidity , more funds will come in the market but into quality midcaps ..of purse the big elephants held by fund houses and managers aren't performing as well as their growth has stagnated many quarters back and will further compress...holding quality midcaps and small caps with patience this bull cycle with upcoming rate cuts is the way to go imo .ofcourse corrections wicome but they will be shallow and rapid which will bring even more funds in quality ...only a huge unexpected negative will lead to a market crash imo...
A short but steep Market crash is not the problem. Problem is a long period of low or no returns.
i would rather say we were not in early cycle just after covid as commodity prices were up ultimately inflation was up and markets factor in the cost through increasing services and products prices. we can see the revenue numbers were up not for the high demands of the products and services but prices increase. yes demand was increase but it was just to buy the necessities as per the individual class. markets just factor in the inflation not the actual growth. cost of living went up. even consumer demand didn't breach compare it to prior to the Covid pandemic. so we were actually recovering from the covid not accelerating the economy. around the glob markets were expecting recession but Covid created stag situation. interrupted supply change but still we have to see the macro economic and demand side that will create the recession. it was a supply side recession.
Revenue numbers were up, yes, maybe due to higher sale prices as you say. But wouldn't the input costs of companies to produce goods be higher too? So if profits were also growing, then it was real growth, isn't it?
@@tarun9542 you observation is true. However if we apply different ratios to ascertain the efficiency and growth of the companies with pre covid times then it will better reflect the position. Some sectors no doubt performed outstanding specifically IT. But I am of the opinion that demand side starters influence will always be closer to reality. Whether high demand or low demand. Supply side has to make adjustments.
@@arifkhan-sy1it Which sectors specifically do you think had increased revenue growth due to higher prices but not actual demand? I am of the opinion that there was pent up demand from the lockdowns, so all that demand came when lockdowns were removed. Like auto sector, it was doing badly before covid, negligible sales during covid, and then suddenly all that demand from previous years came in 2021-22. Car prices were through the roof, but so were the manufacturing input costs due to shortages and supply chain disruptions.
@@tarun9542 Yes auto sales went up as lower intrest rates favoured the buyers. IT was in real growth and it has created new avenues for other business after Covid. So IT growth is likely to sustain with new adoption and more awareness. Auto sector is not performing well since 2023 with rising interest rates. Coming lower intrest rates won't be able to support the demand due to inflationary pressure. So market either through slow landing or sharp fall will create a balance.
Some Banks will fail very soon
This person for the past 3 years has been predicting doom for the Indian economy - but the economy keeps defying this guy
he is just warming up.
He wants to be the next burry or kiyosaki who bark for 10 years straight about a crash then the crash inevitably happens and they become heroes.😂
We are Not in Late Or Mid, we are In Early Cycle.
Stop Looking at it with GDP #
Ye chacha last three year bear
Correct. Not just him but many have been preaching froth , overvaluation and so on. What looks frothy is gonna become more frothy before it busts, the problem is if u miss the froth rally , one misses a verv large meaty return too. While no one shoupd expect an exact exit, my sense is there are good ways to know how to cut , trim off positions as and when it looks bubbly. Eg. Defence ship building and Railways went 10 tk 30x , it's obvious they'll correct or be jn sidelines some newbies kept buying it , that's where kne gets trapped. Smart people kept booking profits at regular interval.
Because of right reason
Can Maneesh Dangi clarify how our Sensex went up fivefold during the Manmohan Singh era but managed to gain only three times?
All that growth which was saw in UPA 1 was due to Atal ji's work in same as Infra development work done during 99-2004 such as PM Gram Sadak Yojna, Golden Qadrilateral etc. Please note all Infra work captlital goods cycle take positive effect in the economy after some years as they are all capital intensive. Unfortunately the moment UPA 2 came , a complete policg paralysis was observed which brought our economy to sub 4% growth.
@@deepeshsao1008: What use is growth to 81 crore Indians who survive on Charity of 5 Kg grains. What Vajpayee was able to do in infra was due to reforms carried out by Manmohan Singh.
@@pardeeptandon A poor man is always poor not coz of lack of opportunities but coz of his lack of hard and smart work. Good luck with Cial , 2G scams and khata khat once they come to power. Remember promised 1 lakh would have no value of 1 lakh once given as a freebie and be ready for hyper inflation once pappu implements it.
@@pardeeptandonThen why is ypur father promising you a dihadi of 8000 per month? Will he give it you when you tell him your jaat
@@deepeshsao1008: In a Decade, Modani could not get convicted in the Courts of any culprit of 2 G. The BJP was responsible for electoral bonds, and the SC declared them illegal. No investigation has even started in this declared illegal act, where even a financial trail is available.
As per you, the 5 kg grains given as charity to 81 crores are not freebies and are a sign of economic growth at a FAST clip. Of course, RS 1500 per woman given last week in Maharashtra is not a freebie. The same was done in MP.
We have poverty in India because Brahmins and Pandits have been responsible for spreading education since Vedic times. But they used the charity we gave them for spreading education and doing public good-and it is still used for their personal well-being.
Even today, the charity we give at 1,80,000 Hindu temples is used by government-appointed Brahmin trustees for personal use.
Recently, 300 KG of Gold went missing from a temple at Uttra Khand. The temple's head priest alleges this.
Ye uncle yaha sirf apni company ko promote karne aaye the.
Aur aap. Cheap comment karne??😅
Ndtv operates from Pakistan that they can predict indian's downfall even withiut the current data at hand