Farage won Labour the election, not Starmer | Sir Trevor Phillips
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- Опубликовано: 9 июл 2024
- "The truth of the matter is this: this election was won for Labour by Nigel Farage entering the contest."
Not enough attention is being paid to Reform UK, the "big winners" of election night, says Sir Trevor Philips.
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lets talk about the fact that even Tory voters found the Tory Party abhorrent. this is THEIR fault.
I am staggered that anyone voted Conservative, ex party member and voter and what a waste of time that was. So quite what those saw in the party after 14 years of fighting each other, paying themselves handsomely, while dismantling the public sector. What bubble have they lived in for 14 years. Incredible.
No, the Tories lost it by failing to anything for which they were given a big majority in 2019.
True..."levelling up" was a great wheeze but was never delivered.
@@eddieharris6004hs2/3, net zero, planning reform, social care.
All we had was 5 years of chaos and incompetence
The Conservatives lost it because they’re not Conservative. Stop blaming Reform.
It's a two party system. Voting for anyone else is just pointless.
The Tories lost because Reform were more Conservative than they were - until the Tories become Conservative again they will continue to lose
exactly
@@mattharrison5220 It will not happen, the remainers like Cameron, the one nation closet Lib Dems, those that will not ditch the ECHR are NOT Conservatives !✌
Where you get the idea that Reform are Conservative is for the Birds.
Tories hemorrhaged sears to the Lib-Dems.
Anyone voting Reform isn't going to vote Conservative we saw that with the nut all Rwanda scheme
Ridiculous! The Tories gave it to them on a platter and only have themselves to blame!
Multiculturalism leads to multi-tribalism. This is only the start of the fragmentation.
Well put. Thank you.
It needs to split, how on earth can Closet Lib Dems be in the same party as Brexiteers that want to control immigration. Even if they pretend to be unified, they pulled a stunt like getting Cameron back - ENOUGH the party is over !
2 Anglo-Saxon neighbours are unlikely to be friends, have the same interests, or the same values. You are defending a fantasy which does not exist.
Utter nonsense. Tell that to the ancient Celtic tribes of Britain, the Picts, the Scots, the Romans, the Angles, the Saxons, the Jutes, the Vikings, the Normans... I could go on but I doubt that you have the reading comprehension to get past "utter nonsense".
@@Helen-nl9lv How was that racist guff "well put"?
How can Starmer have a mandate when 80% of the electorate didn’t vote for him.
Same can be said of Boris Johnson. If people don't use their vote that's their hard bun!
100% it's an undemocratic farce
In the immortal words of Boris “The Liar” Johnson ….. “Them’s the breaks”.
The damning indictment of our political system is that 4 in ten people didn't bother to vote because our so called representative parliamentary system isn't remotely representative of anything because of our antiquated first past the post voting system.If every vote cast counted equally across the UK, as under a form of proportional representation voting system,then i believe the 40% who didn't vote would have more of an incentive to do so.Of course this 34% of the vote giving Labour a 176 seat majority means Labour have no interest in reforming our voting system.The voting system won't be changed any time soon so it is what it is,unfortunately.
Of course he has a mandate. The party which he has transformed and leads won more seats than the other parties. It's really not complicated. The first past the post electoral system is what we have and it allows us to have stronger governments as proportional representation usually results in coalitions of 2 or more parties not really agreeing on very much at all and constantly fracturing.
Reform UK 🇬🇧 all the way!
To prison for fielding fake candidates and taking the money for doing so? I hope Farage has a good solicitor.
You only have to look at the percentages and you can see it wasn't a labour win. It was 18% of the conservative vote going to Reform, Lib Dems etc. Labour got 2% of the tory voters but gained so much because of people abandoning the tories for nearly everyone but Labour 😂😂😂
People were tactically voting against the Tories because people understand the voting system so this whole vote share argument doesn't make sense. People would vote differently under PR. Also Cameron won a similar share in 2015 and noone questioned that.
Not having that if there was no Farage millions would have stayed at home, including me !
indeed!
Then we can blame you for giving Starmer a mandate to rule.
@@AethelwulfOfNordHymbraLand2333 No we can blame the Lib Dem tories for NOT wanting to control or limit immigration in fact it increased. The closet Lib Dem's in the party would Never leave their beloved ECHR - they are NOT even Conservatives !!
@@AethelwulfOfNordHymbraLand2333 That doesn't make sense. More stay at home voters coming out and voting for Reform did not give Starmer his majority. That was the result of apathy among those who usually vote conservative.
Congrats to Farage. He did the same, but for the Tories, in 2019. What a winner. 😂😂
There's this weird idea that only the conservative and Reform vote can be fused together. Labour? Lib Dems? Greens? Add those together and you have a massive mandate.
It's so weird that people are missing this. The parties on the left combined for more than 50% of the vote. Also, people keep forgetting that Labour's strategy wasn't to turn out as many people as they could. The strategy was to turn out enough voters in enough constituencies. Don't blame Labour for executing the perfect strategy for first past the post. Voters on the British right had the chance to change to a system better than FPTP and chose not to. They don't get to whine now that Labour played the system perfectly (as did the LibDems) and that the right has no idea how to do it.
well both the Tories & Reform are right wing, whereas Labour pitches itself as socialist, the Lib Dems as centrist & the Greens as environmentalist. You can dispute how accurate those labels are, but the Tories & Reform are the most ideologically alike
The trouble with that line of thinking is that Liberal Democrat voters have always had far more crossover with the Conservatives and there's tonnes of traditional Labour voters that like Reform. So really the only parliamentary allies that Labour actually has is the SNP, SDLP and the Greens.
@@IrateTurkey I would dispute that after what happened to the Lib Dems in 2015. Though I agree that the support Reform has is broader than some in the conservative party realise and they cannot just fold that entire vote in to themselves.
@theshadowdirector How can you dispute it based on 2015? The Tories won practically all of the seats that the Liberal Democrats lost. The same happened in reverse in 1997, 2001 and 2005. The only reason the Tories were in limbo for so long is because the Liberal vote remained so high in the home counties and the southwest.
REFORM👊🏽 😎🇬🇧
I thought this at first but if you look at the post-election surveys and the voting data, Labour would have won the election anyway, Reform or no Reform.
Imho this happened in the USA with Trump in 2020, I wrote this comment for this parish then, look at point 4:
Technically Trump should have won if it wasn't for:
1. Him foulmouthing mail-in voting, which probably cost him quite a few votes instead of the opposite
2. Him not handling the pandemic just a little bit better, showing just one tiny snippet of compassion, which purely politically obviously would have been good practice
3. Just the McCain insults probably cost him überconservative Arizona and other veteran-military votes
That's all self-inflicted and would have been utterly avoidable, then there's this largely overseen supreme irony:
4. Small government 'pro freedom' libertarian 3d candidate Jorgensen nibbled away 1-1,5-2% from the Trump vote in nearly every state and flipped several key states for Biden, including Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Leftie Nader and Green Jill Stein btw did the same to Gore and Clinton.
Biden always was going to win the popular vote, but this chain of results was close to divine intervention.
Friday morning after a first look at the numbers I already reached the conclusion aired here.
Btw Times Radio in the end works for that Bond villain grade horrible Murdoch who's bringing the West to the brink.
You did not include the fraud that was carried out . They are still finding evidence of the fraud now . A couple of weeks back an audit in Arizona found 420, 000 ballots that did not have a signature match to the people who supposedly voted . Fulton County admit that 300, 000 ballots counted were all from the same person . Another area , forget the name , have also admitted that around 18,000 mail in ballots were never actually posted out .
The media will not report on these and others fraudulent activities just as courts would not look at evidence back in 2020/21 , except in 6 out of at least 60 cases if I remember . The courts dismissed a lot of those cases saying that they were bought to late or that nobody had been harmed by the fraud.
Coulda woulda shoulda
in a poll, 36% of Reform voters said they would have voted for the Tories if Reform hadn't stood candidates. That means that 64% of Reform voters would not have voted for the Tories under any circumstances. It's ridiculously simplistic to lump the Tory and reform votes together and give it any meaning. The election outcome closely matched the pre-Farage polling predictions. Labour won the election for themselves. Go back to peddling your tripe on Sky.
Even if the Conservatives win every Reform UK voter back or vice versa. They would be facing a bloc of voters that outnumber them and have shown their willingness to vote tactically.
Did Trev mention the Muslim vote?
Yes
That was very funny and I did laugh with Trevor! Don’t worry Trev, you’re 150 yrs younger than Biden 😂
Obviously true.
More people voted Corbyn in 2019 than Starmer in 2024.
Anyone who says differently is informed by media headlines only 😂
It's impossible to be certain what would have happened without Reform. It's possible that former Conservative voters would have voted for other parties or perhaps not voted at all which would have caused an even lower turnout. Whilst it is a landslide in terms of seats, only 20 in every 100 people voted Labour, 40 in every 100 people did not vote for Labour (including 14 in every 100 people who voted Conservative) and 40 in every 100 people did not vote at all. That's not really a strong mandate.
jog on trev
Useful comment😂
😂
Thank god for Sir Trevor only man on tv who speaks any sense
The leaders of Reform UK appear to be a Unified Cohesive Centre Right Political Force.
And among them there appears to be no selfish interest in personal power grabbing.
the truth of the matter is that people decide an election, BY VOTING. And actually Starmer only managed 35% of the votes cast. In what sense did he win?
it's just not true, reform cost the tories 40 seats or so. Losing a vote to labour (or lib dem in those 70 odd seats) counts twice as much as a loss to reform
Libdems got far LESS votes in 2024 than they had in many many elections since 1983 ,when they got far fewer seats. Libdems got less than half the vote share of the SDP in 1983, after all. This was not a Libdem revival, it was purely an electoral anomaly.
The Conservative and Reform vote was 1.2 million MORE than Labour for all those who can't count.
James cleverly, please don't joke, they need someone who is way above his abilities.
Has Trevor Phillips done a constituency-by-constituency analysis? In how many seats was the Labour vote less than the combined Tory-Reform vote? (And even that is assuming that every person who vote for Reform would have voted Conservative if there had not been a Reform candidate.) The fact that Labour did not increase its overall share of the vote is not important. What is important is what happened in each constituency.
people are entitled to vote for who they think will serve uk best, atm there is only 2 parties ever in the running, they do not make it easier for other parties to get a look in because voting system is unfair. Rome was not built in a day but labour needs their day because they need to enjoy it, they will be out big time in 5yrs, they are giving reform all the ammunition needed to make the public rise
No one voted starmer in, tgey voted Sunak out.
Trevor do you know what Reform means ?? It means 'REFORM' !! As in not the same old, same old year after year of gradual enslavement and decay.
Trevor has aged gracefully.
I wonder whether the two party system will be upended.
Thank god Nigel and Reform were in the running, we finally have some common sense in parliament rather than the usual pantomime of Labour and Tories.
Common sense? Reform have the same economic policies as Liz Truss and the IEA.
Plus it is led by the clown who gave us Brexit which has crippled British businesses and farmers.
As a lifelong tory voter I could not vote conservative in this election , they betrayed the voters I was not going to vote until Nigel Farage entered , because I would never vote Labour. So I was pleased to vote for Nigel and get him into parliament
They were already losing before Farage came, he just complicated the picture
Braverman should join Reform!
Trevor, political analysts are so arrogant. The electorate does not map the political landscape as left or right - but wrong and right. It understands first past the post and so the wipe out was intended, the flirtation with minor parties is intended. Voting is situational who is to say that with PR we wouldn’t get the same result? Reform’s 4m votes were piled up in a small number of constituencies when the savvy Labour and LibDems focussed their efforts on winning individual races. I am in Liz Truss’ old seat we openly spoke to other voters agreeing to vote for anyone but Truss and we wiped out a 24,000 majority. We are not political analysts but we understand how our politics works.
Well then Trevor if we just stick all the left from centre parties together and both the right from centre parties together, its quite clear who wins this and future elections.
It's probably the only time I will ever agree with Phillips.
With so little time it’s important to say things twice .
Thank you for helping the Tories to stay in Fairyland.
What a bizarre take from Trevor on your last question…
So diversity is crucial to talk about and is rammed down our throat at every opportunity daily. But, because in this instance it doesn’t suit the trend and wider narrative that Trevor and the media would usually insist we believe, we can disregard and laugh off this one?
A shocking and infantile double standard.
LIEBOUR just won this election without even trying to promote themselves
I do not agree. However if this was the case Farage is prone to doing this, he did it in 2019 when he stood his candidates down and helped ease the Tories back into power. That makes Farage a stooge for the ruling class no doubt about it.
Philip Gallie Tory MP Ayr say do not look gift horse in mouth politically. Labour party banked 412 seats UK general election in July 4 in England. SNP finished secondary hit 9 seats Art Bezrukavenko deliver it. Tories always leave mess up in England yes Thomas. Brilliant content.
Copium is heavy dosage.
Big up the fascists if you like - but be careful what you wish for. A brief perusal of history tells a story
Labour made themselves electable and targeted the bellwether constituencies, meaning they were extremely efficient with their vote share and ran a tight ship. It's not all down to the "Reform winds of Fortuna."
No they didn't. They got 33% of the vote. That is terrible. I have never seen a government with such a small voter percentage before!! Corbyn was more electable. Why did they win with 33%? Reform split the vote!!
London, specifically Islington, Labour Party. Middle class backers
Let Trevor eat his humble pie. Let’s add all constituencies where reform came second and give it to the conservatives plus all the reform one and we see what happens.
But really how can someone say the public didn’t want change and didn’t know what change is. U.K. has only two parties who can form a government and if people didn’t want labour they would have said so as they did in 2019 and all previous election as far as 2010. We are happy to give the conservatives 100 of our MPs and still have a majority.
Danny Kruger is the name you're looking for....
James Cleverly Lol what opposition. He says I'm for labour but I think Cleverly. That's the reason why not
Farage/Reform didn't win Labour the election - they made the Conservative loss worse than it would otherwise have been.
The argument of many on the right, that the Conservatives need to go full Braverman, conveniently ignores the fact that the Conservatives lost a significant number of seats to the LDs in, broadly, more affluent areas. To voters who are socially quite liberal but broadly centre/right economically.
People who are more likely to be net contributors to the state.
Which puts them in quite stark contrast with the socially conservative, 'left behind' types.
Glasgow West we wanted that seat badly Thomas for British Labour party England London it ours again. Patrick lenart Austrian he socialist yes he happy about it Thomas.
It’s not how you got there it’s being there that matters
Gives no examples of tom hardwood comments. Get rid of him
Carol Monaghan afford her house Western Isles she have to cutback Thomas. She waste of time politically she not you Thomas or anyone in Glasgow West.
ReformUK had to be created. Long way to go.
Kemi Badenoch?
Sir and a posh accent doesn’t mean one is intelligent.
What biggest threat Reform UK party Thomas. Are better than Tories yes.
Why is Trevor Phillips giving his political opinion in interviews when he works as an anchor for Sky news who is responsible for interviewing politicians and holding them to account. This destroys his credibility in regards to perceived impartiality.
I no longer watch sky because of this angry openly biased man. His recent interview with Farage was absolutely shameful. He is unprofessional & unable to hide his hatered. Additionally, reading through the comments here people don't agree with Philips. Shame on Spectator for giving this ACIST a platform.
Labour had a poor election. 500,000 fewer people voted for them this time around than in 2019. 3,000,000 fewer people voted for them than in 2017.
But if Reform scoop up 20% of the Tory vote in most seats then Labour - despite not/barely improving their percentage - come over the top.
Wales is a great example of this. Labour's percentage decreased wildly yet their seat count increased because the Tory vote collapsed.
It's entire possible a lot of people did not bother to vote because it was considered a foregone conclusion from day 1. If the Tories had been competitive then the likelihood is the vote amount would have been higher for both major parties and smaller parties would have received less vote share.
@@Verity98765 it's entirely possible that people did not bother to vote in 2019 because it was a December election and people didnt want to go out in the cold.
There seems to be a lot of excuses regarding the turnout. Perhaps, just perhaps, people didn't get out and vote Labour because they just aren't excited about Labour?
@@Matthew-bu7fg Not all explanations are equal. We've seen turnout depressed by the perception that the outcome is not in doubt in previous elections (indeed, the most obvious example of a "recent" election where the outcome was not remotely in doubt is 2001, an election when turnout was about the same as this year).
"Starmer got less votes than Corbyn in 2017" Trev will get into trouble if he's not careful
He shouldn't be given a platform for his angry biased opinions.
This is quite the red herring - turnout was about as low in 2001 and for the same reason; when one party is clearly going to win big a lot of people (on all sides) just don't bother voting because it seems pointless. 2017 always looked like a Tory win, but not a big one and as the campaign progressed it looked more and more possible that there'd be another outcome. If the Tories had still be 20 points ahead on election day turnout would have been lower.
Philips is a bitter old Tory. Typical Sky. Even without Reform running Labour would still have had a majority of 80 to 100 seats. Philips is just bitter that the Tories have a competitor on their Right flank. Ha ha ha
Think Trevor Phillips has matured since his Blairite days.....
Trevor. He could have swung the 2019 election to Corbyn as well. There’s no new insight here from
You.
Utter nonsense Mr Phillips - the Conservatives lost the Conservatives the election simply by protracted gross incompetance . .
Farage split the vote, yes. If you add Reform and the conservative vote, share together. The conservatives would have won the election.
they are incompatible, the one nation trash should get on with it and the real conservatives now need to move over to Reform. No reform voter will vote for the fake tories.
Just not true
@@peterwoodhouse3239 Reform are just angry conservative voters. They are not a separate group. You add the two vote shares together, the conservatives would have won. Reforms 5 seats gave Starmer a huge majority.
@@jim-es8qk Polling strongly suggests otherwise; well under 50% of Reform voters say they'd have voted Tory if Reform wasn't an option. And you can't determine the result of the election merely by adding the vote shares (in our system it's by no means a given that the party with the largest vote share is the party who wins the most seats). But if you're going to play that game, add the Lib Dems and the Greens to Labour's share of the vote and they utterly crush a combination of the Tories and Reform. Most of the votes cast in this election were for parties of the centre or the left.
Labour won because Cons didn't vote. This man is diversity gone wrong. Contradicts himself and still talking..
Does anybody cover politics in this country😊
This is not true, the Tories won Labour the election, not Farage!!
Farage highlighted the obvious right wing beliefs of home country and too much immigration which highlighted Conservatives had become indifferent or probably more woke than we realised
phillips a simpleton reaching the immigrant viewers
Absolutely
Yeah rights For Whites
lol! read the reform manifesto and see what they stand for! sorry mate, it isnt the bnp or patriotic alternative - loser parties!
@@just_another32 yeah right 4 million non white voters
@@just_another32 yeah who do you think voted for them Lol
@@just_another32 so you don't like white people then?
Millions of white people voted for them, because they're concerned about being replaced in their own ancestral homeland
Thank you Trevor for the truth of your opinion.😢
What a about libdems
I'm a Reform voter. Don't blame me for Labour. Blame the utterly USELESS tories for their disfunction, coupled with the Labour voters. In the next five years, if and when the country is on its knees, I will blame these for destroying the country. BTW, I hope that I'm wrong and that Labour do not destroy the country. To be honest, it would be difficult for them to be any worse than the Tories.
The Tories have wrecked the country!!
The country is almost on its knees now.
Trevor talks sense.
Only if he's saying things you want to hear. He's actually taking nonsense. Polling shows only a small minority of Refom voters would have chosen the Tories had reform not stood. 36% to be precise.
okay naive boomer
It could be said that Reform’s trajectory in terms of votes was significant and decimated the Conservative Party, BUT at the end of the day, and because of the current voting system, Starmer is PM not ‘Fakage’. Thank God
You can't say that Reform voters would have voted Tory. They were sick of the Tories. Labour would still have won if Reform didn't exist.
boomer take
Labour won on merit. If Farage had not run, it still would have won, as Reform took votes from them as well as the Tories.
If this is true, it's absolutely hilarious because Farage helped deliver a left- wing government. Serves the chancer right.
If you had any sense you would realise that Labour getting in by default was inevitable, how else do you think Labour could win, it wasnt through having decent leadership or policies? The objective of Reform was to remove the Tories and start rebuilding a Conservative party through the Reform party. It can only be downhill for Labour from now on, they nearly got beaten by Reform at the election in 98 seats so I wouldnt be so smug as those seats are vulnerable and Reform can only go from strength to strength.rebuilding
Reformers are going around beating their chests for coming third, it's really embarrassing. They don't understand how politics works. That's why Labour is in power now. And will be, maybe for the rest of our miserable lives. As for Nigel, he lost a national election to Rishi, by millions of votes. I don't know how any Reform supporter can go around puffing their chest out, when their top man Nige was thoroughly outvoted by both Rishi and Keir, individually. Nigel should be apologizing humbly and promising to do much better, and Reform supporters should be asking themselves, how do we stop ourselves from being so widely disliked by most of Britain.
Labour won, Trevor. The electorate stayed home for the Conservatives and there was tactical voting to remove the Conservatives. The analysis you presented doesn't hold up in the presence of tactical voting. Mr. Farage and team may have benefitted from Conservative voters and others who wanted the Conservatives gone from their constituency.
England won the World Cup in the 1960s. They outscored Germany. Labour have more seats. Deal with it.😊
Stop crying
Starmer is pathetic
Every time i hear this guy he just comes across as a miserable tory slash some farage lover in him. Labour couod have won every seat hed still be slagging them off like a bitter boring fool 🙄.
How lovely to hear someone talking about politics and being honest and thoughtful.
i dont always like trevor philips but hes got it 100% right.-
The fact is that Starmer made it possible for Labour to win. Five years ago the party was writtrn off but Starmer had the courage to think the impossible,that the mountain could be overcome. Of course the Tories helped by shooting themselves in the foot but Starmer's achievement shouldn't be brushed aside. Next the party was whipped into line and the necessary seats were pinpointed to be won while allowing the Lib/Debs to quietly take the lead in those places where they were best suited to push the Tories aside. Nothing was left to chance and this clamour over percentage of the vote is missing the woods for the trees, a complete rout of the Tory ranks.
We've got to stop giving Farage more credit than he deserves. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Reform UKKK are not as important as they think they are!
Labour would have won despite Reform. This is a dumb argument.
Absolute rubish. Labour won fair and clear. Waffles nonesense
Yes it was fair and square. But they won with only 33% of the vote share. That is awful and its never happened before. How did they manage it? Reform split the conservative vote.
@@jim-es8qkThey actually won below 33% if you take out Scotland.
They gained power in desperation of escaping the Tories. The same thing will happen to Labour but I doubt the Tories will ever gain the numbers they previously did as they cant be trusted ever again.
@@maccagrabme Labour was down across the board. This was an anti-Tory Election.