What Brexit will do to UK trade
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- Опубликовано: 19 июн 2017
- Three University of Groningen economists analysed the UK's options for trade after it leaves the European Union.
Their result? There is no option that is better for UK trade than the current situation. The best result from Brexit would be the one that most closely mimics the UK's current arrangement.
You can find out more about Tristan Kohl, Steven Brakman, and Harry Garretsen's research in this paper www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ces... and VOXeu column voxeu.org/article/options-glob...
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Country maps by by FreeVectorMaps.com
So proud to say I shall be attending this university for my Masters degree rather than one at home in the UK this September. After living in the Netherlands for the 6 months leading up to the referendum last year it was so refreshing to see a country so innovating, leading and free minded, yet unselfish in its ways. Everything in the Netherlands whether it be transport, healthcare or education runs smoothly every day as a result of its resilient residents. I decided to study a course in relation to the European Union whilst out there and I can honestly say I have never experienced such an inspiring and interesting topic as that. It was then waking up on the morning of the referendum results, I remember opening my curtains and staring out to the thousands of bicycles passing beneath my window that were heading into the centre of Groningen. It was at that point that I realised my life had changed forever. Arriving back to the UK just 4 days later was certainly eye opening to say the least, most definitely when arriving back to my rural hometown. Many leave voters will constantly remind you about how corrupt Europe is, that everyone is unelected and most annoyingly that immigrants are stealing our money. The very thought of these statements makes my blood boil as all of them are incorrect. It would have been nice to see these mindless leave voters given some actual facts leading up to the referendum, however now we are left with the mess they have caused. Being a young adult people often discount my political opinions and claim I’m “too young to understand”. Believe me don’t ever tell me that. I have many European friends, both young and old, who see the UK as a laughing stock now and honestly I’m with them. Whatever the result of the Brexit negotiations, I can say from the bottom of my heart that I am a true European and will fight to keep my citizenship even if it means losing my British one.
All i know is that when i travel throughout Europe i struggle to find British goods. If you do come across products in their supermarkets they're twice the price than in the UK.
When i go anywhere in the UK, European goods are everywhere.
So it's better for them when we leave?
Very good stuff, nice to see gravity equations explained in graphic form.
Is this assuming we do not trade with the EU at all?
Yes. Ridiculous propaganda.
mark dennis.the truth hurts and you brexit brits really fucked up.............
Mark Denis, unless you understand how “gravity ecuation” works, I don’t know how you got to this conclusion. Did you really follow the video?
So I do understand how the model works, and it is really quite simple. At its core you take the economic size of the two nations and then divide by the distance.
But that causes a problem for the conclusion. You see whilst it is true that trade is more difficult with countries that are further away, we are not talking about changing that distance. The UK is not physically leaving Europe to join another continent. So because the distance does not change the term is effectively fixed. What I mean by that is we can look at how it affects our current trading and apply a ratio to that.
And it turns out that we already export more to non-EU countries than to EU countries, despite them being further away. This is because the GDP of the rest of the world is about 5 times larger than the EU, so despite it being further away it is still better for trading with. Just over 2/5ths of our exports go to the EU and 3/5th go outside of the EU, despite their not being any deals and despite it being further away.
I mean that should have been obvious to you by just looking at the equation in the video.
Wow, I am so happy someone didn't just insult the other person and actually gave a valid point and reason. I voted to remain but obviously, I want the UK to do as well it with or without Europe.
funny how a European expert tell the UK we lose so maybe we should stay because they tell us
Thomas Carlyle didn't call economics" The dismal science" for nothing !
this video implies we wouldnt be trading with the EU, which we will be regardless.
What about a Sterling depreciation with unilateral free trade with the rest of the world?
Good video!
Does this single calculation take into consideration how trade will be greater with other nations not the same as it currently has. 93 percent of the world is outside the EU.
..... and economist are always right in their predictions, of course.
Yeah, not adopting the Euro was supposed to cost us hundreds of billions too and I believe the introduction of A8 and A2 nations was only supposed to result in 10,000 extra migrants... according to economists like the one in this video.
Incorrect, what the do is provide a range of predictions with more likely outcomes... However, many factors influence the outcomes. Forecasting is never precise.
So basically you can twist it to achieve any outcome you like.
More precisely, forecasting is almost never accurate. If it was he wouldn't be working at the University of Groningen, he'd be a billionaire financial trader.
Very good point.
It is worse that this now because of the EU Japan Trade deal coming. Japanese manufacturers and big finance will move to the continent where most of their markets and parts manufacturers are and will retain continuity and certainty.
I don't understand what you reference your percentages to. If U.K. leaves the EU but keeps basically everything as it is including being part of EFTA why would the trade or whatever you calculated trop ..even so nothing changed in that regard ? Makes no sense to me ..on a first glance.
In 2006. UK trade with EU was 55% of exports.
In 2018, UK trade with EU is 44%.
Trade is in significant decline.
Facts.
So all these options mkiss out the fact we will still trade with the EU either via the WTO rules or a trade deal
This is an excellent summation by a professor of Economics and Business. I don't know about some of you, but I'm sure that, like me, many others of you will listen to an educated expert, rather than to an opinion from the man-on-the-street.
The uk as opened 16 board of trade offices dotted around the world in this last year..the brexit trade minister lam fox as had talks with at least 60 countries ..the uk cant sign a deal until march 2019 21 months time by eu rules[ nasty eu ]but all the things needed to sign trade deals are being put in place and the trade delegations from the uk have their sales staff doing all the ground work so there will be an immediate boost to the uk with deals being signed onand right after that date. david davis pointed out the uk will not be jumping off a curb let alone any cliffs its all in hand he said .and the eu can not and have not stopped us getting our ducks in a row...the eu know this and know the uk will not be a desperate push over in talks. WELL DONE THE BEXIT TEAM..
Wow! This was a good explanation, so clear and precise. Wish we heard someone speaking so truthfully before voting here in the UK!
Not speaking "truthfully" just spouting ideas based on some "formula" that is supposed to show everything - must be some hell of a crystal ball! By the way all the gloom and doom predictions of the experts have so far proved to be a load of bs.
Where are the actual numbers? What are the presumptions made about this fall in trade, in which sectors precisely? I could stand up and say hey I have a magic formula and my conclusions are that trade will increase by 18%. This presentation means nothing at all. Most economists predictions turn out to be completely wrong.
www.mirror.co.uk/money/what-brexit-cost--one-10669544
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/02/brexit-scaremongers-proved-right-economy-slump-inflation
Thing are getting worse - the prices in the shops tell us that without any MSM input. The other thing is that people are still borrowing more on credit cards, and piling up debt. That can't last forever - and when it's maxed out consumer spending, which is already down, will go down further. I would love to be wrong
+Greyasagoat The prices in the shops? I haven't seen any increases at all. If people spend money they don't have on credit cards they are pretty stupid. Firstly you shouldn't borrow to spend and secondly if you are going to be that stupid you should not be borrowing on a credit card, you can get much better rates taking a loan at the bank.
The Mirror says petrol has gone up, not true where I buy petrol it is actually cheaper than it was last year. the Guardian says an extra £7 a month on groceries (23p per day), gasp. how will we manage? And even there I disagree where I shop the prices are much the same as last year and if you shop wisely even lower.
+Iain1962: I imagine your support worker pays all your bills. Can't imagine someone like you being trusted with money.
Enough with the doom and gloom. We survived the war and we will survive Brexit.
we had a lot of help in the war of course .. this time round we'll have none. Personally, I'm getting an allotment.
Why do you compare "the war" with surviving "Brexit"?
We will remind you of those words when you come back crawling and demand to be restored in your old position in the EU in a decade...
Yesssss..... we voted for Brexit just to survive. All this talk of post-Brexit prosperity was NEVER something we wanted or voted for.
I wonder which one of these three economists at the University of Groningen is the European Union - funded ' Monnet professor ' ?
So how is this calculated? How come britain loses 13% when they have the same trade deals as inside the EU?
Naomi O,Leary That's no answer..for good or bad whatever the uk buys like a crazy man .and france biggest industry farming will collappes with out the subsidies it get of the eu and without uks contributions . and the eu trying to interrupt trade with the uk frances biggest farm produce customer.the damage to france will be to big the farmers union as said it would be just like the French revolution all over again French farmers are the most aggressive union in all Europe..And Germanys biggest industry is engineering/cars and the uk is their biggest customers the head of the german CBI...as told merkel any restrictions on trade with uk will cause massive losses and must not happen.To sum up..the uk will get a deal that no one else as got a deal that only the uk can get with them.there is not a chance in hell the vorhofsted and tusks can prevent the uk doing just fine...
because the deals will be on different terms. Different tariffs, etc. non-EU countries do NOT trade on same terms as EU countries. Simple.
there are wto rules on tariff charges and figures..
Jon Chedgy - "Your statement is grossly misleading..." No, those are the figures. Britain paid it's debt down from 240% of GDP after WWII to 40% in 1973.
Yeah, an economics expert. How many of these experts saw the massive crash in 2008 coming....?
And you're happy that he can now predict the future so accurately....
Nice to have it all laid out calmly and clearly by someone who appears to be knowledgeable, but to summarise his remarks in a word ... CLUSTERFUCK!!
We chose freedom over wealth. Only time will tell whether or not we took the right path.
Laura Trigg freedom over wealth? So you wish to be like somalia? A country with barely any wealth but alot of freedom?
Wyrd weaves as it will. England is not like Somalia though, so you shouldn't worry.
Nice to hear the uk is taking back our sea waters..we have pulled out of the pre eu 1964 agreement ..we have doubled the size of waters but on leaving the eu we will take back upto 200miles off our coast...BREXIT BREXIT BREXIT.
just make sure you will catch each and single one. I hate fish in sea
British fishermen did get a bad deal out of the EU. But that was because we were represented by Mr Farage. He took the extra money. Failed to even turn up to a single meeting. Thus leaving us unrepresented and so we got the bad deal, he was happy to sign off on. Then he pointed the finger at the EU for the bad deal.
I totally agree China miles from anywhere and there trade is horrendous
Alternatively, somewhere between a global Britain and the current situation, with good deals stricken in mutual interest both around the globe and with European partners who will also see their value added exports drop if they choose to make trade difficult with the UK?
I bet Germanys value added exports will take a big ol' whack if we aren't buying their cars, for example.
Edit: Did you factor in trade with the EU in any of your Gravity equations? Or were you too busy rolling in money from Brussels?
Any deal made with the EU will require following their laws. Except now the UK won't get a vote in what those laws are.
And any deal involving the UK will require the EU to follow UK laws. This is a nonsense argument it applies all over the world. So with our largest export market the US we have to follow their laws if we wish to export to them and vice versa. No big deal.
So you have no problem with the UK having to follow 80% of the EU's laws and having to continue paying the EU without any say in what the laws are or how the money is spent? Exactly what was the point in leaving the EU then?
Wea111 being able to choose which laws we don't want to apply domestically. for example a racist immigration system with first class treatment for EU citizens and a lengthy second class visa system foe those outside our borders, discrimination based on country of origin instead of fair global immigration where quotas are met based on controllable skills such as qualifications and employment history.
yet all the brexiteers were the racist ones when you short sighted remainers endorse a racist system cause you didn't look at it that way because it was never a newspaper headline and you can't use your own brain and sense
Sure you'll be able to choose which laws you want. And then the EU will cut you off from the single market. You've handed them the power to crash the economy if you do ANYTHING they happen to dislike.
So let me just clarify this. You want equal requirements for someone coming in from North Korea as you do someone from France or Ireland? No difference? If they have the right degree they're welcome no questions asked?
This video came one year too late for Britain.
FREEDOM AT ANY PRICE
Britains future lyes in CANZUK. The Canadian, Australian, New Zealand, UK trade set up.. Massive emerging economies that we already have great history and ties with. These countries with there heads together will dominate world trade.
"I'm an economist" - big fucking deal.
Margaret Thatcher coined the term TINA, There Is No Alternative. So based on your factoids and skewed analysis, any alternative to the European Union is bad. Sure, the old Soviet elite made the same claims about the USSR and indeed its breakup did bring much disruption. However, all we seek is Swiss style agreement with greater control over migration as the UK's population is rising by 500,000+ a year, which is clearly not sustainable. Interestingly other European countries share similar concerns. We want to trade with the rest Europe, cooperate on common environmental and industrial standards as well as security matters, but not be part of a superstate.
Personally, if we could revert to the old Common Market (EEC era), that would be fine.
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Ha! I just spotted this, made my day, thanks!
Hey look, an expert who has actually done his homework. Well, we all know how the Brexiteers feel about experts. They prefer gut feels, empty rhetoric and outright lies.
I just hope Scotland and Northern Ireland manage to save themselves.
i only see this "associate professor" regurgitation his own conclusions without data or research method to support his conclusion. i never let my students pass if they only show the answer and not the methods. is this what they pass for facts now in Europe?
martin.......brexit will leed to the founding of the new republic of scotland with the 6 counties rejoining republic of ireland
His calculations are based on zero trade with the EU - whichever way you look at it, we are still going to trade with the EU on some level. He probably didn't include that scenario because it didn't fit the agenda he was trying to push.
How can you tell on what his calculations are based on?
Scott Kilner Yeah, that must be it.
All I can say is thank god I studied Economics at Sunderland university and not in the Netherlands. What a load of unfounded tosh.
Unbelievable
Coming up. The winning numbers for next weeks lottery, given to you by an economist.
There is much more to Brexit than the loss of trade. There is a risk of the United Kingdom pulling itself apart. Amazingly the DUP are in talks with the Irish Republic on possible Irish reunification. This to stay in the EU. If that happens Scotland will follow for sure. The Irish may even invite Scotland to join them in a new Celtic Union. This would be Mr Putin’s greatest victory.
Ireland has the EU to fall back on as it always does
I am from the university of life, if you can trade with europe and the World, your stock goes up. We import more products than we sell so it is not us that will go down. I suggest that you check your facts again. We have more ex-pats overseas than we do in europe. We only have just over a million in Europe, and most of which are in Spain. However, we have millions of scummy poor from the soviet bloc. If we can get rid of these, we would be all the much better.
We comming out end of
Well economists have been proven wrong before..... but taking that aside, if the Netherlands is happy to become a small part of the supranationalist federal Europe and be just a region of Greater Germany then you go with it....we would rather be poor and standing than rich and on our knees.
Still fighting WW2, then.
Westwoodii what has this got to do with WWII?...... or doesn't having a democratically elected government bother you? ..... or are you just one of these fuckers who is so self obsessed, selfish and intellectually morose that you'd rather everyone else makes decisions for you as long as your life is just great....
Except chances are we'll end up begging for access to the single market meaning we'll have to follow ALL the rules while not getting a vote. Well done on making yourself a vassal state kid.
Wea111 well if you're happy being part of this bullying undemocratic social experiment.... then good for you..... and we shall just wait on the sidelines and watch you start to bicker and fight amongst yourselves once again. Except this time Germany will win as the rest of Europe won't be getting any outside help
"what has this got to do with WWII?" "Except this time Germany will win as the rest of Europe won't be getting any outside help". Contradict yourself much? Though I guess you'll have plenty of time to do that when you lose your job from all the job losses that'll come from Brexit.
He is an economist and we are all supposed to be impressed! Economists are notoriously vague, which he is not in this case. Economists, like politicians, are supposed to be able to tell us what will happen and then explain to us later why it did not. There is just one thing that is possibly worse than a wise, elderly economist, and that is a young, confident economist. This is ALL BS and the reason that the UK voted to leave the EU was to restore control over its borders and had little to do with trade. IT WAS NOT A TRADE DECISION.
While those of us that wanted us to remain argued economics (because truthfully the only reason they had to remain was a misguided emotional one) people who voted leave didn't vote with their wallets.
benagaberplym . In my view there were two kinds of people who voted in the Brexit referendum.
There were those who voted with THE country in mind and those that voted with THEIR country in mind.
TEMPORE CUSTOS Is the EU a country because that is point blank something that we don't want to be a part of...
benragaberplym. Can't argue with that !
I wonder which side the university of 'Groningen' would be? hmmmmmm, let me think about that one.
1) just because the current trade deals go away does not mean that they disappear forever, they will be replaced by ones that might be just as good or better.
2) Soft brexit is unlikely but it basically means keeping things the same, as they would only do this if it also retained the free trade zone with the EU
3) Here you have proposed advantageous trade deals with the rest of the world and assumed some sort of punitive tariff system with the EU, which there's no reason for as it would hurt the EU and would only happen if the EU want's to be punitive at its own expense, so any drop would be the fault of the EU being bitter and scared, not the UK.
Nice propaganda and/or biased research though, look up the idea 'confirmation bias' then try again.
Tell me, have you brilliant economists in the Netherlands worked out yet how much your country will be forced to cough-up to help fill the hole in the EU finances when the UK takes back its ATM ?
Reply came there none !
LMAO
I'm sure we were told by EU experts when we initiated article 50 that:
UKs economy would nose dive? It has not!
Were we not told we would see mass exodus of business leave UK? It has not!
We were told that EU citizens would not want to work in UK and get the benefits of higher salaries?
The fact is most EU citizens working in UK want to stay and work in UK and will not leave? e.g EMA
Were we not told that the banks and finance sector would be destroyed and would move to EU? seen any banks leave UK?
Didn't the experts in EU state big business like airbus would leave? Airbus CEO states different BTW!
So far non of this has come true!!
Didn't EU try the same tactics to get Norway to sign up to the EU a few years back? I'm sure i remember hearing this BS before?
UK will survive after brexit. Please stop the scaremongering it makes you look pathetic!
Then Ireland would finally be united .
1. Low quality bunch of assertions. Clearly third rate. Who paid for this? No evidence of method applied, probability, impact differing by sector the unknown issues etc etc. Given many complex factors (exchange risk alone) could potentially have a huge impact and even led to opposite conclusions at least hypothetically this is embarrassing drivel. This is at a (much) lower level intellectually even than an A-level economics textbook.
2. The mentality/approach seems, which I must point out that we we are forced to guess given the lack of explanation, to be that "if all things are equal we get these numbers". Again, what is the method? Are these just wild assertions or were any primitive "calculations" to inform a crude guess done at all (e.g. maybe on the impact of the extra cost of tariffs, but in general these would not be very high under WTO rules? What else? Who the hell knows?).
3. Just to be clear, even if these (laughably precise) numbers turn out to be correct it will likely be astonishing luck given the paucity of analysis. Do the people who made this video think everyone was born yesterday? What is worrying is that the people who made this video given its shoddy nature so lack experience and common sense.
Why? Because the video cannot possibly achieve its implicit objective. i.e. a. it wont convince anyone and b. it will reflect badly on them given the lack of content and silly over-precise claims. They need to seriously re-evaluate everything they do and the actual level of their abilities from first principles and actual evidence (this will take them some courage).
4. If anyone reading this is unfortunate enough to be studying at this college they should get out asap. Clearly if this video could emerge from it this is not really a high quality place, whatever it or others may claim. Reason, facts, evidence there are none. Just "trust me I'm an economist". Saying you are an expert is not an argument. Its a bit like parents/elderly people past their best saying they are older ("rings on a tree") ergo/so they must be right on subject x. Still not an argument..
Conclusion:
Assuming (based on a high probability) this guy is an academic only, then his work and skills will never have been tested or honed by practice. You cannot usefully even begin to analyse complex issues involving business until you have spent a long time deeply involved in the details of it. Reading textbooks or anything other than on the job experience in this regard is not a substitute. Never will be otherwise, end of.
Would this guy even be hired at a junior level by a commercial enterprise? Who knows. However, if the market is the best mechanism we have to value on someone (remember the relevant background is "trade" (!)) and they have an entirely public sector background, has never sold any books, worked to solve complex problems, been forced to stand behind their work etc. we cannot judge that persons value - because there is no actual evidence that his views have any...
Furthermore in general economists in particular have been totally off-guard on almost all major economic events of the last 10+ years (or was this always?). Only a fairly foolish one should be trying to predict the future in a such a black and white way. If the maker of this video reads this - some advice intented to be helpful - reevaluate everything you do and change your path. Leave academia, get some proper experience so that you can actuallly help people. At the moment you are someone elses tool (assuming you were paid to produce this - am I right or am I right?)
Another expert next week will say Brexit is great for trade! Nobady is sure for certain!
Economist are just like horse race tipsters its not a science you know its a guessing game and at any one time just like racing tipsters at any one time their opinions disagree with each other full stop that's the profession of economist...just like mystic meg.
This is why I wanted us to stay
Lol this is so dumb. so a trade deal with every country is worst than a trade deal with the EU? please don't chat such rubbish.
Project Fear strikes again! It really is funny when an academic shoots himself in the foot by lack of academic rigour. This man talks only of imports/exports as though they are exclusively 'trade' They are not. They are only a small aspect of trade. About 9% of our trade (including the Rotterdam effect) is with the EU, about 11% of our trade is with the non-EU, and about 80% of our trade is internal (Briton to Briton). In the modern world it is internal trade which is critical. The USA is the most powerful country in the world not because of its exports but because of its massive internal trade, state to state. A strong economy is one where money is circulating rapidly, earning and spending, earning and spending, with minimum friction. The problem with Single Market regulations is that they add friction to internal trade. If we get rid of Single Market regulations our internal trade will improve. And outside the Customs Union we will not be restricted by the Common External Tariff which means we can import food cheaply from, for example, South America.
He assumes that we must have bilateral trade agreements with countries, but what I would hope is we move to a model based around unilateral free trade, as proposed by Professor Patrick Minford (search for videos of him on RUclips), where we eliminate or reduce tariffs on our imports largely or entirely. This would mean we don't actually need bilateral trade deals in order to be successful, and instead become a truly free-trading nation. Even if the UK leaves with 'no deal' we shouldn't impose tariffs on imports from the EU purely to dish out vengeance or create a trade war.
So few economists are thinking of this unilateral free trade option, but it is the one that's most likely to succeed, and also the easiest to implement.
This man works for the University of Groningen does he? Could this be the same RIJKSUNIVERSITEIT GRONINGEN RUG* which on this website ec.europa.eu/budget/fts/index_en.htm seems to get many thousands of Euros from the EU going back to 2010. I wonder why he is so keen for Britain to stay in the EU?
Does your calculation take into account internalised trade post Brexit? For example 10% of our imports are cars, primarily from Europe, and cars also represent 7.3% of UK exports. But if German and French imported cars suddenly become prohibitively expensive then it is likely a fair portion of that trade will be internalised - people will opt to buy British manufactured cars. Aside from internalisation the UK economy is largely service based - export trade only represents roughly 1/6 of the economy and around 1/12 of that is with Europe so while 6-18% drop seems dramatic in your explanation it's actually only 1%-3% of our total private sector economy.
after we have listened to this video I think we had better leave the EU, because every time we hear from economists they are wrong oh and by the way its more to do with democracy than money greedy self seeking people just don't get it
This guy has given a complete load of rubbish why not look and check if we have a hard brexit how it will affect eu countries that decide to no longer trade with britain. It would be a disaster for current trading countries in the eu to stop trading with uk... we are the best customers... trigger brexit..... we can now trade outside eu which will greatly help countries aruond the world not currently inside the eu..... we can also continue to trade with countries inside the eu but with the option to go elsewhere the eu countries will have to make it more worthwhile to trade with them..... more trade options= better prices for the uk... control over our boarders means that massive corporations can no longer access unlimited cheap slavery which is good for all the poor people that are already here... brexit could be such an amazing thing... anyone wonder why mainstream media is massively bias to brexiteers..... rich people are scared of brexit cause it will slightly start to close the gap between the poor and middleclasses. All rich people and middleclass people trying to brainwash you into naking their lives better and better
I fucking love counterfactual scenarios. I learnt about them in the FAQ section in the back of a trade magazine and now I'm an expert.
This was a political broadcast from the European Union. Paid for by you.
Pity it doesn't factor in that the single market is shrinking year on year. How much trade is being lost by staying in it?
Q1 2017 GDP growth
UK 0.2%
EU 0.6%
Ackreti how was Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, GDP? we all know that Germany floats the combined member states but look at the countries individually
+Matured Fetus
Britain is at the bottom, beneath Greece.
money.cnn.com/2017/06/08/news/economy/uk-economy-weakest-europe-gdp/index.html
www.ft.com/content/0bbc026a-ea12-11e6-967b-c88452263daf?mhq5j=e1
www.economist.com/news/europe/21723446-having-tackled-its-problems-earlier-italy-or-greece-spain-now-seeing-results-spains
www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/08/uk-economy-falls-to-bottom-of-eu-growth-league
look them up yourself. every country bar greece is growing
Matured, individually the UK is still worst:
0.6% EU
0.2% UK
0.4% Greece
0.6% Cyprus
0.4% Italy
0.8% Spain
I didn't verify every EU member, but reportedly the UK has the worst GDP growth from the EU.
Germany is average, Eastern Europe hits the tops.
LOL in 2021
This video is the exact reason people don't trust economists. You left out the fact that the UK is actually seeking a free trade deal with the EU as well. Common sense should tell an academic (supposedly) such as yourself that free trade with the EU (current situation) + free trade with coutries such as the US and China (after Brexit), means vastly more trade opportunities. You don't have to be an economist to see through an economist's lies.
Rubbish! He did not hold a pint in his hand so it must all be wrong ;)
uwe in Hamburg. If global warming is a fact and bearing in mind 25% of the Netherlands is below sea level,
this gentleman will probably at some point require a 2 gallon bucket rather than a pint.
Some energetic bailing may well divert his attention from poking his nose into other people's business.
By the way , are you are aware ,that universities all over Europe get a bundle of cash from the EU.
I doubt whether this one is an exception.
His [ unasked for] conclusions may or may not be valid but what is certain is they are extremely unlikely to be unbiased.
Happily nothing to worry about in Hamburg though !
LOL... Sorry you do not share my weird sense of humour :)
Every Brit will get it. As the YT was about Brexit i assumed that most readers would come from the UK.
With the pint i was referring to a UK politician who is (in)famous for his scepticism about global warming, Mr. Farage.
Global warming is a fact. Hamburg is on average 6 mtr. above sea level. On average! Parts of the countryside a few km. away are under sea level. Big parts of the city are very close to the harbour.
The flood barriers get more expensive every year. A rise in sea level of half a meter would be a catastrophe here.
uwe in Hamburg. Hi there . Iv'e lived in the UK all my life so I instantly got your reference to Nigel Farage and his well known drinking habits. I understand Mr Farage isn't too popular in the EU but apparently 17 million here in the UK seemed to share at least some of his opinions in June 2016.
To be honest ,the point I endeavoured t make was that here in the UK, we take a somewhat dim view of other people poking their noses into our business. {As I'm sure the people of Germany also do}
I attempted to put a bit of humour into my comments to make a point whilst emphasising the hidden agenda that exists in Universities and other institutions.
Nice to hear from someone with an ironic sense of humour { sadly lacking under normal circumstances on RUclips }
Anyhow 6 metres should be enough to keep your feet dry for a while LOL
Regards from the UK.
No problem. I share your view. Brexit is first of all a UK thing and you have to work out what you want and how to establish it first.
Some comments from EU politicians have simply been stupid and some sort of unnecessary interference. It is ok for them to talk about the potential results of a Brexit for us and for the idea EU but they should stop there.
On the other hand there are lots of very normal people here who are interested in the UK with a really positive stance. Perhaps Hamburg is the most Anglophile place in central Europe :)
I have lots of Internet friends in the UK and i care for them and about what is happening to them.
It's just common sense, how did anyone in the UK thought we would be better off out of the EU when most of our trade is with them and most trade is always with close neighbours and as pointed out, a hard Brexit would mean the UK has no trade deal with the EU or any other country around the world, the UK would be one of the few countries in the world to have no trade deal, thats pretty much what the UK government seems to be pushing at the moment, this is all made more remarkable because the EU is striking up free trade deals with Canada, Japan, Australia, India and there are talks about looking into doing one with China, I also suspect one with the US at some point but maybe a weaker one than what was being pushed last year and I have to say, thE UK picked a bad time to leave the EU with whats going on in the US and EU, everything doesn't look good at all for us and yet the Tories are still going on as it it means nothing, we saw that with the snap election, the government's seem to be acting as if nothing changed, gotta laugh :)
At the end of the day, its clear here that we will likely leave the single market.
Its also equally clear that this will lead to even worse consequences then we now have.
That being the case - what do the brexiteers think will happen at the next G.E. when the opposition says leaving was a mistake, and they will take us back in - and end austerity?
Also, its worth bearing in mind that as significant number of those who voted leave will be dead in five years. So too, will be a significant number of the remainers who have been swayed by the "Eu are bullying us propaganda "
And we will have a LOT more young Corbyn voters. PRO EU
Clearly T.M. is aware of this, which is why she tried to throw the election and let the shit-storm fall onto Corbyns head. Which would have meant she could have got back in when the time came, and perhaps destroyed the labour party for decades
As the Tories will now be destroyed by this.
If we leave and then beg to be let back in, chances are the terms will be worse than at present, so wave bye-bye to all those juicy opt-outs. In a sense that could be no bad thing, if you join a club you should play by the rules just like everyone else, unless there are very special circumstances. Maybe being in the EU but with numerous exceptions, is what fuelled the illusion of British imperial exceptionalism in the first place?
marconatrix: I think what you are saying there is pretty much a certainty if it goes down that way. There is no way, of course, to know what may crop up unexpectedly.
Predicting human behavior isn't all that hard a science. People go towards pleasure and move away from pain. If they are given honest information they will choose to go in the way which they perceive to be in their best interests.
It's going to be really easy to sell the idea of rejoining the Eu in five years time. The opposition are bound to seize on that.
In the meantime, the people who brought this about will become every rich.
The trouble is when people are buried in an avalanche of propaganda/information from all sides, they pretty soon stop paying detailed attention and probably decide "they're all as bad as each other". At which point, having lost interest in any rational analysis, they simply fall back on gut-feelings and especially social pressure. Humans remember are a social animal, no-one really likes to be out of step with their friends and family etc.
Btw. I don't entirely understand your last comment. Who will become rich and how? (I'm not suggesting you're wrong, someone is always on the make, whatever).
Marconatrix: Agree with what you have said there.
Its useful to look at who in it was who pushed for Brexit, and who has the most to gain if Britains economy goes into a serious recession.
Not just economically but politically also. Probably best if I post some links
www.mirror.co.uk/money/what-brexit-cost--one-10669544
www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy
www.cnbc.com/2016/12/27/brexit-is-a-god-given-opportunity-to-steal-trade-from-uk-wilbur-ross.html
Apparently, people with money to invest in shares are doing rather well. Those who know what they are doing.
Bizarre how so many people will blindly follow someone telling them money isn't everything, without checking out their background and affiliations.
Also there are two motives which drive sociopaths. Money and Power
greyasagoat I don't know if you follow politics at all or Jeremy Corbyn's career as an MP in particular.
If you bothered to check you will find Corbyn has been bitching about the EU and the disadvantages of our membership for the best part of 30 years.
Before the "young " decide to support Corbyn I suggest the "young" check his voting record. Perhaps they might be well advised to check his other political leanings and enthusiasms as well.
With regard to your statement "it is equally clear that this will lead to even worse consequences then [sic] we now have. On what evidence do you base that statement ? Supposition yes , possibility maybe ,Fact no !
As to Teresa May throwing the election I must admit the same thought occurred to me but I think we may both be crediting them with more intelligence or guile than they actually possess .
PROJECT FEAR V2
When a country asks its nationals to vote on whether it should untie the strings from the EU, that's the time when evidence should be offered to the world...before the vote is taken. Furthermore, your equation is adjustable in so many ways. You have obviously taken a single point in time for your factors. The UK product output will change, for better or worse, and your demonstration should show all of those possibilities, including the best possible outcomes. In short, YOUR probabilities as an economist are probably not the same as those of others. If you handed me this as school work Doctor, I would give you 10/10 for presentation but 5/10 for content. Now, could you do a presentation of the number of laws being made for the UK by the EU after a hard and soft Brexit and of course, for the total downfall of the EU.
What a goon!
That mighty font of wisdom, the University of Groningen. I would just like to point out that the UK invented the discipline of economics.
Glynn Wright the UK also invented football yet they suck at it
God save us from another economist ..by the way there are economist that disagree..The uk,s biggest business organisation who represents 90% of uk business with 400.000 small medium and large firms the british chambers of commerce, director john longworth as put a report out explaining just how a clean brexit would bring the uk economy a staggering £156 BILLION A YEAR..as itv/sky or the bbc interviewed him no. is there a 2nd referendum anti brexit campaign going on yes..did it happen before yes. where in every country that voted against the eu in the past.it was followed up with months and months of negative reports about saying no to the eu. followed by a 2nd referendum where the eu got a yes...every time the eu give some sweeties and some opt outs and the country concerned re vote yes to the eu.. its corruption on the international stage ..we are in the re run the referendum propaganda war right now.and economist reports that are pro eu will continue to pure out...its truly the globalist agenda at work.
!00% Brexit: Re the video you mentioned. As I pointed out to you over a week ago John Longworth left the British Chamber of Commerce over 15 months ago after being suspended first. The reason for his leaving was that he was out of step with the BCC.
These facts can easily be verified by following the link.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/04/british-chambers-of-commerce-boss-suspended-in-brexit-row-reports-say
He left 3 days later.
I also believe the £156 bn you mention was an estimate for a 12 year period.
As I have told you these same facts previously it leaves readers to determine for themselves who the liars are.
"I can't speak for Dutch centres of education but in 2013 / 2014 British universities received over 800 million in EU funds. [ Our own money anyway but let's not split hairs ]"
I couldn't help but laugh at this statement. I had the thought of you giving me £1000 a month and i give you back £50 to spend every month. Then you thank and worship how great i am, but really, It's your money.
ponyboyyoutube longworth was the chairman who broke the rules a year ago by saying the remain camp was fearmongering and Osborn was a liar which as since been proved 100% correct..he said before brexit he believed leaving the eu would be far better for the country so had to step down as chairman..but he is still a director of the chambers of commerce and as been researching the fact since then.. when you say the report was debunked by who ? not a remainer by any chance...not a LSE economist by any chance not an eu funded LSE economist by any chance...there are list of organisations on line who are and have been getting large amounts from the eu and what do you know they are pro remain.. if you want the truth don't trust no one instead dig deeper research longer and you always find that the media and the establishment are screwing the public every time.
Alan Marr every financial organ in the world said brexit was going to be very bad fast and George Osborn said ho no I will have to bring in an emergency budget really fast ho dear ho dear he said .. the other tory boys said hold up ozzy no you don't..so he never,,and the economy has boomed the stock market as broke all time records..exports are up to a 30 year say again for the fearmongers a 30 year high. interest rates down not up as all the bent """experts"" told us...even mark carny at the bank of England opps we was all wrong sorry..he went on to say because of falling immigration numbers by the end of 2018 wages will rise across the board by at lest 4 to 5 %...I CALL THAT GOOD BREXIT NEWS..
100%BREXIT. You seem to believe only the experts that agree with you. I notice another trend, outsourcing services to Indian companies and they bring Indians to do our jobs. We had few rounds of redundancies all ready. Not saying this is as a result of Brexit, but global Britain may become an Indian colony if these trends accelerate.
Brexit will work wonders for foreign trade. We can offer to the world to trade with us for free, as good customers, and they won't have to pay the extortionate EU external tariffs.
The biggest risk is staying in the EU and not having any say in the laws that govern you... what do the maths geeks think of that one 🤷🏻♂️
Trade is one thing although this mans findings differ greatly from other recognised economists, what he fails to address is the return of Sovereignty to the UK......the control over immigration, and the ending of paying for hospitals in Poland!
Another whining snivelling Remainer. We are leaving and he doesn't t like it.
Oh dear. The gravity equation. Just go on Civitas, as this is complete toss, and also, did the slaver, old georgee washington think about gravity equations in 1776. This is mostly about not being a dominion in a eu empire for fucking sake! It's about freedom! Trade is a excuse for empire. it's not new.
Oh, dear CLVASHJBHWFS, so sorry! You are just about 3 centuries behind...Please, wake up!
CLVASHJBHWFS what the f@## are you talking about? You have so many exceptions and not being dictated. You are not a member of schengen, You get a huge rebate on how much you pay and you have other exceptions? So how is it you feel dictated?
I have not been personal to anyone, but you have to me, as all remain monsters do. Sorry , it was not Civitas but Brexit Central: brexitcentral.com/gravity-models-remain-prejudices-distort/ In what way is this three centuries behind?
Because this is a bloody empire and nothing else. We do not get a huge rebate, this eu cost us 60 billion directly and 10% directly and indirectly, and more power are given to this eu empire. This is an fucking empire!
You are profoundly ignorant. The UK is, and always has been, a major net contributor to the EU.
It's a fact that the UK economy can afford to lose 350 Million a day and not be any worse off. Being able to negotiate our own trade deals with non EU countries will pay huge dividends as we develop working trade deals that will benefit specifically the TWO countries involved in these negotiations unique economies. We don't require non elected overpaid foreign buearocrats to be involved in the running of our own economy. That's Why we pay for our own ELECTED Governments. if they do a bad job we Can get ride of them. We can't do that with the Marxist Commission now can we? The EU is destined for failure one way or another. Better to leave now and get our own house in order.
"We can't do that with the Marxist Commission now can we?"
Commission president Juncker is elected. Just like May or Trump.
Juncker isn't Marxist, he is christian democrat (conservative branch).
Another expert spouting arguments based on hot air - has been being a drip under pressure (true definition of an expert). Also don't forget that we are one of the largest contributors to the EU budget so losing our money is going to hit them hard.
WE DON'T CARE IF WE LOSE OUT............... WE WANT FREEDOM; IF GOODS GET EXPENSIVE THEN WE LEAVE IT ON THE SHELVES................. SIMPLES!
Speak (or SHOUT) for yourself...drop the "We".
You are indeed 'simples'.
@IB Khan
You're the simpleton
splodge, no it actually means like how the pound crashed and everything you import becomes more expensive, you have to keep in mind that even the things made in the UK have parts that are made abroad.
This also means your wages have dropped, same with pensions.
The UKs economy is now among the 3 slowest growers in the Europe, while before Brexit it was one of the strongest growers.
The situation is bad and seeing how the negotiations are going its not very positive to be honest...
My company managed to REDUCE our import costs in Sterling, by bypassing the EU based distributor and going directly to the Asian manufacturer.
so what if trade is down we will rule our country , and in the long run will bounce back
peter adams .....you have no bounce left you bounced all your cheques.and scots leaving wont help you............you are only a subject peter boy not a citizen.....................
Seán O'Nilbud. I can only imagine how proud your mother must be for you to use that language. Frankly if you are an example of the people we won't have to deal with when we leave then it will be worth it just for that.
Mike Brexit. Re Sean O'Nilbud . I have to agree . You can't beat a combination of obscenity and atrocious grammar to get your point across .
yea a no
Mike Brexit Noone gives a fuck about your mass produced "opinions" you illiterate filth.
So this expert says that by having brexit we loose one fifth of our export trade. There is no such thing as hard or soft brexit that is bullshit. So with immediate effect this expert says we loose 18% of our exports. In fact what he says is the best thing for the UK is to remain part of of the EU under present terms. That the EU is great it must stay in place to ensure trade. So let's trade with a bloc that supports unfair trade through the euro, one that doesn't seek equal opportunities for all. It doesn't matter whether you believe this simpletons ridiculously simple and immature equation or not he believes in unfair trade agreements based around a flawed and unfair trade arrangement based around the euro and people believe this utter nonsense.
cant wait for our country to be on its knees and for people to still be saying leaving the EU was a good choice...
Treeckostalker So you're anti-British? Why would you wish for mass poverty and chaos? Why not fight for prosperity and success?
It was a touch of sarcasm. I was just saying that many people seem to think no matter what is happening, Brexit was a good idea. At least when things are unfortunately terrible, some of these people may realise their mistake. The EU is not perfect by any means but we need it.
well at least we can vote for our pm. the highest power in the UK now is junker cant remember sweing him on my ballot paper. #pro democracy
Treecostalker, it would seem that you would prefer to be on your knees, waiting expectantly for the EU to give you something with an open mouthed gormless expression on your face. You can either be the giver or the taker. It's your choice.
Mike Brexit I don't think the EU is perfect but if you look around the UK you can see that most places that have been improved were EU projects because our government were lazy and don't like investing in anything, which is why we need the EU. Most things that are bad in the UK are bad because of austerity.
WE DON'T CARE..................................... FREEDOM AT ANY COST
Freedom from what can i ask..?
Well he would say that wouldn't he? What about exiting with a free trade agreement, but they don't really want that do they? So the UK has to stay in a despotic EU because it is of so much great benefit to other countries right? Even if the figures were true it would still be worth leaving in order to slow the shocking population growth experienced by the UK. And what no mention of GDP per capita? No mention of quality of life issues? Did you take into account the economic benefits British commerce would get from unshackling itself from EU regulation? Or from having accountable governance? Did you include the benefits of much cheaper merchandise (including food) available outside the EU bloc?
This is a group of so called experts trying to appear to give impartial analysis, the same types who say that immigration has had no effect on wages and working conditions because their so called studies say so and cannot be argued and discounting the empirical evidence experienced by these people. Shameless liars and part of ongoing project fear. We've seen it all before.
"This is a group of so called experts trying to appear to give impartial analysis, the same types who say that immigration has had no effect on wages and working conditions because their so called studies say so and cannot be argued and discounting the empirical evidence experienced by these people."
You mean like when people such as Copernicus tried to show that the Earth in fact went around the Sun when the 'empirical evidence experienced' by people showed otherwise.
Well maybe you are right and we should shut down our brains and vote only with our feelings - that's the typical reaction of a nationalist who espouses 'my country right or wrong' whereas true patriots try to change their country to be the best.
Immigration has very little effect upon wages - you are still in denial of the 'lump of labour fallacy' which was disproved over 126 years ago!
Exiting with a trade deal = having a worse deal than you have already.
You would still lose all the trade deals that already exist with the EU and third nations = your trade will still drop by double digits.
Your quality of life is already dropping while inflation is on the rise with lower wages and higher importcosts.
What EU regulations are bad that prevent trade?
What part of the EU political sphere isnt accountable?
Poor dumb Pete him and his underclass will be the first to feel the pinch.
Ever tried importing or exporting something from Australia to the UK? As a coin collector there are heaps of nonsense rules and regulations that have to be complied with. The UK could very quickly conclude more trade deals than the EU could, the EU's achievements are very poor compaared to other countries outside the bloc, Australia has concluded FTAs with NZ, Chile, USA, China, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Singapore and many more. The EU agreements are mostly with supplicant states, Australia tends to have FTAs with both the major economies and small economies. to be honest the EU's record is in comparison quite abysmal. So even if the UK exited the EU and all of the trade deals with third countries we can be very very confident of establishing trade agreements with other countries. Meanwhile WTO will suffice, countries can do very well with only WTO rules, look at the UK's trade surplus with the USA - done under WTO rules.
Also many of the goods imported by the UK can be purchased much more cheaply outside of the EU especially food & wine. North Asian cars are cheaper and better quality than many German cars. So you are wrong about increased prices.
the commissioners are not elected, and the parliament cannot initiate, change or repeal legislation. It is little more than a talking shop. the lack of accountability is utterly unacceptable, EU commissioners are not accountable, being selected by governments does little in effect to improve their democratic credentials.
And lastly the EU has proved itself incapable of reform itself. Britain needs to get out ASAP.
You know what they say about any analysis - garbage in , garbage out. The whataboutisms are perfectly valid points conveniently excluded from the model. Garbage in, garbage out.
I had actually considered studying at the University of Groningen before I came across this absurd video.This is actually nothing but propaganda. You can't just write these figures without explaining how you came to them. They are very unlikely figures and even if accurate, definitely only represent the short run and not the long run. How can you explain Switzerland, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and many other non-EU countries' continued success. The UK has negotiating power that far exceeds the likes of these countries and non-EU countries will not need to punish the UK for leaving unlike the EU which is only punishing the UK so that other countries will not leave. If the EU is so great, why does the EU feel the need to punish countries for leaving. I am saying all of this as someone who voted remain and still hopes we can stay, but please stop this absolute rubbish it is embarrassing for the European Union.
How exactly is EU punishing you?
dick head
The chavs have voted, so nothing we can do now
gio piner.......now the queen will need a visa to visit her cousins in germany.............
gio piner chav????.... as an airline pilot and fairly literate individual.... and there are many more like me.... I and many others are offended at your remark. If you wish to live in a supranationalist federal region of a new Greater Germany..... then you are more than welcome to it. We have n the UK are happy to set our own laws and choose our own path, and will not be bullied by a non elected faux commission made up of Berlin puppets.
Nick OBrien
We already set our own laws .
gio piner Go back to rotten boroughs and poor laws. The EU does nothing for poorer English people. Our jobs are at risk.
GIO PINER The big heads have lost so theres nothing they can do now except listen to them belly aching and whinging. take a day of the sun will come out tomorrow you know..
I laughed good and long at this...OK...just ONE question...who actually PAID for this? Any bets it was the EU itself? The EU represents a very small percentage of any 'possible' trade globally, even if we had trade deals with just fifty percent we would have more trade than we do with the EU now. This is just propaganda....the same rubbish we had thrown at us during the run up to Brexit.
You mean like when the UK was the sick man of Europe and was jealous of how strong the European market was while it couldnt do any decent trade even with the Commonwealth?
Ian like to laugh and clap his hands, toilet training remains a problem.
What you say was true at the time, we were still bankrupt from fighting the Nazis, The ECM was a good thing for at that time. It is what has happened consequentially, that is the problem. Britain wants no part of a superstate run by unelected bureaucrats. Add to that an army and you have a recipe for disaster!
So even after 30 years the UK was still bankrupt while countries on the mainland who were reduced to nothing recovered after 5 years. I dont buy that sorry.
Superstate? Army? Thats something that can only be achieved by a unanimity vote by all memberstates' national democraticly elected governments.
Indeed it is incredibly bureaucratic and it does cost more than it should, however it is democratic.
Of course, you are right it was 28 years post war, and rationing had finished in 1954, but then we had socialist governments, so it never felt that bankruptcy had ended. Hopefully, we will avoid that this time.
Oh, democratically elected governments what a novel idea, I wonder why some want to leave all that behind.
Look everybody. An EU expert is telling the UK that we are mad to not give the EU £20 billion every year.. We are doomed, doomed i tell you. lol.
So a Dutch Remoaner
Rubbish
Prove it so, saying it is so does nothing but make you look stupid.
davy scales..............yes you are talking it now............