3 Simple Steps to Ensure Your Portfolio Can Support Your Retirement

Поделиться
HTML-код
  • Опубликовано: 4 окт 2024

Комментарии • 114

  • @janesmith506
    @janesmith506 6 месяцев назад +56

    JAMES, I keep saying after watching one of your videos, “How can James, who seems to be under 40, exhibit such wisdom and understanding of the process of retirement planning, and at the same time understand all the different types of people who watch these videos-their goals, dreams, and fears?” That was especially true as I watched this video, which is one of your best, because the couple’s initial hope was really not practical. In addition, you threw lots of curveballs during the stress test. If I had access to your videos 20 years ago when my husband retired at 42, I would never have agreed. But for his health I did agree, and I’ve spent years catching up our retirement savings. Now we are in a good place, but there’s a lot of worry that I could have avoided. I hope lots of people in their 40s and 50s watch your videos so they have time to do course corrections without the pain. Keep up the high quality of your videos!

    • @keithlambert6217
      @keithlambert6217 6 месяцев назад

      I’ve said the same myself.

    • @Lucky008aau
      @Lucky008aau 6 месяцев назад +2

      James appears to have taken his CFP certification seriously. When it comes to this material, those are the letters after the name that matter.

    • @Jack51971
      @Jack51971 6 месяцев назад +2

      Really? What young people need to do is fund a ROTH IRA or workplace 401K if ROTH is available to the max amount if possible in a growth fund from Vanguard or Fidelity or a fund that tracks the S and P 500. The stock market is a marathon not a sprint and 40 years investing each year in these funds provides tremendous growth. But..when we are young the mind is elsewhere?🤣

    • @rayzerot
      @rayzerot 6 месяцев назад

      ​@@Jack51971Wait, are you replying to Jane? She said her husband retired due to health. There are many serious health conditions that can keep someone from working at 42. Count yourself lucky if you don't know what they are

  • @Jupe367
    @Jupe367 3 месяца назад +2

    Whoever have James as their financial advisor is extremely fortune. My gosh, he is so thorough.

  • @princessleiathemaltese5571
    @princessleiathemaltese5571 6 месяцев назад +13

    This is a lot more sophisticated than the material out there on RUclips. Thank you sir.

  • @Beadgcfb
    @Beadgcfb 6 месяцев назад +6

    To be realistic, I'd prefer a deep dive that includes advisory fees. Presuming that a good plan adds value, it still has an expense and that could affect the overall outcome.

  • @everlastingarms3065
    @everlastingarms3065 3 месяца назад +1

    It seems to me that based on what they want to do when, and the compounding issue, simply taking SS at 62 fixes a lot and levels off the withdrawal rates.

  • @joy945
    @joy945 6 месяцев назад +11

    Excellent video - very good to see all the steps clearly explained. I hope you can do this for a single person as well. Living expenses for one person may not be much less than for two, but the effects of various risks can have a much greater impact. And, two social security benefits, pensions, inheritances, etc. is better than for one.

  • @M22Research
    @M22Research 6 месяцев назад +6

    Nicely done scenario. One modification I haven’t seen planners mention in a plan like the “first draft” where you’re heavily hitting your portfolio while delaying starting Social Security…
    If you are simply tired of working due to stress, whatever, an option might be to phase into your longer term plan. That is, retire now, but delay spending on the extra stuff like travel for a year or two, even three. That can reduce the early stress on your portfolio at the same time it reduces your personal stress.
    And with that retire now, delayed ramp up retirement plan, prior to Medicare, if you manage your 1040 income to modest levels (either by spending less if most of your money is tied up in tax-deferred accounts, or spending from brokerage accounts), ACA credits can dramatically, even eliminate pre-Medicare healthcare insurance premiums.

    • @pioneer7777777
      @pioneer7777777 6 месяцев назад

      That sounds like a nice happy medium. Would be interesting to see that play out.

    • @Radicalwillie
      @Radicalwillie 6 месяцев назад

      Good catch about the ACA credits if AGI is low enough.

  • @albedo0point39
    @albedo0point39 6 месяцев назад +3

    I’ve watched a lot of your videos and I think you’ve made some of the clearest points in this one. The end ‘worst case’ discussion will give a lot of people confidence and few people talk about this.

  • @markb8515
    @markb8515 6 месяцев назад +2

    Thanks James for explaining the steps that you go through to ensure a portfolio can support the retirement goals. You have a great way of explaining each step in easy to understand language.

  • @Jack63141
    @Jack63141 6 месяцев назад +6

    One of your better videos, James. Good balance of getting into some of the planning details while also keeping it focused on the steps.
    I especially liked the concept of the "severity of failure". So many planning tools just determine if you go bankrupt or not, but I like your emphasis that you can modify spending in retirement and still make it through. If the market goes down 20% austerity measures might need to be taken, at least short term.

  • @donaldlewis567
    @donaldlewis567 6 месяцев назад +4

    Great discussion. Have you done any scenarios for federal employees with TSP? Federal special provisions here retiring in less than two years. Just found your site and have learned a lot!

  • @richdewitt760
    @richdewitt760 6 месяцев назад +2

    Excellent explanations James! Rich

  • @jdollar5852
    @jdollar5852 6 месяцев назад +7

    Those healthcare costs before Medicare seem extremely high.
    We both retired at 58. Our ACA for health, vision, and dental are below $500 per month for the 2 of us, and our max out of pocket is $13k. We are both healthy, I'm 62 and my wife is 60, and we live in Georgia. Maybe other states are much higher?
    I agree totally with your definition of "failure". Running out of money in your IRA, but having $5k coming in AND a home worth $700k is not a failed retirement. I guess some people are attached to their home, but I have no intention of staying here(we live on acreage) past age 80. By then this property will be worth a million because, generally speaking, land values increase with time.
    If I were them I would look at a couple of SS plans to help mitigate that big drop in the 1st 10 years and I would pull the trigger to retire yesterday.
    You can always take a $10k vacation instead of a $20k trip.
    Drive the car an extra 2 years if markets underperform.
    Generally speaking, your base living expenses will almost always go down after age 70-75. We've actually increased our spending since retirement and plan to do that until age 70, when we will reevaluate things. Of course we are looking at things 2x a year with our financial guy, in case we need to make corrections based on current conditions. Fortunately, we have not had to make any reductions in the 4 years since I retired.

    • @alansach8437
      @alansach8437 5 месяцев назад

      Expenses generally go down after 70 or 75, except if you end up in a full time nursing facility which can cost upwards of $100,000.00 a year. I saw this happen to friends of ours.
      You can always take a $10,000.00 vacation rather than a $20,000.00 vacation!! Must be nice! Most retirees couldn't even imagine blowing that kind of money on a vacation!

  • @thomasclark5688
    @thomasclark5688 6 месяцев назад +1

    Nice video. They clearly needed your guidance as they were very clearly planning to overspend early on (especially on silly stuff like a new car every 5 years)

  • @chrisevans-i5y
    @chrisevans-i5y 6 месяцев назад +1

    I had initially planned to retire at 62, work part-time, and save money, but the impact of high prices on various goods and services has significantly disrupted my retirement plan. I'm worried about whether those who experienced the 2008 financial crisis had it easier than I currently am. The volatility of the stock market is a concern as my income has decreased, and I fear that I won't be able to contribute as much as before, potentially jeopardizing my retirement savings.

  • @jonathancoleman9405
    @jonathancoleman9405 6 месяцев назад +3

    That software is incredible. Is that something that could purchased or is it in-house only?

  • @hrw3mom103
    @hrw3mom103 6 месяцев назад +10

    James, how much do you or any CFP typically charge a client if all we wanted was for someone to plug our numbers into the software like you did without managing our assets or anything else?

  • @neilcook1652
    @neilcook1652 6 месяцев назад

    This content is extremely helpful, giving me refreshing peace of mind and knowing that I can rewatch your talks to stay grounded. It keeps me on track making sensible lifestyle choices, balancing financial security AND more difficultly spending money whilst we have the health and motivation to do so, THANK YOU

  • @brianl.wenninghoff7696
    @brianl.wenninghoff7696 6 месяцев назад +1

    Excellent material. One of his best videos.

  • @stevendrake8331
    @stevendrake8331 6 месяцев назад

    James, thank you for that very clear and thoughtful presentation on how to assess a retirement plan. Well done.
    Steve in Concord MA

  • @BadPhD777
    @BadPhD777 6 месяцев назад +5

    I'm assuming since you're allocating $25K for a car that it is a used car. Very smart!! My car buying rules are: at least 4 years old and pay cash! They depreciate too fast to be putting more money than necessary into them.

    • @jacksons1010
      @jacksons1010 6 месяцев назад

      You can lease a new car for under $5K/year. If you have that amount allocated in your budget, it would make more sense to continuously lease new vehicles. You will face lower maintenance costs and minimize the likelihood of a breakdown on the road - which is a significant concern for us old folks.

    • @shawnbrennan7526
      @shawnbrennan7526 6 месяцев назад

      $25k on top of a trade-in seems like a fair guesstimate. But we keep our cars longer than most folks.

  • @jimroberts6176
    @jimroberts6176 6 месяцев назад

    This is one of your best videos. A lot of detail, and clearly explained.

  • @MyDuyenLe-k4c
    @MyDuyenLe-k4c 5 месяцев назад

    Great information! Thank you

  • @jdk050507
    @jdk050507 6 месяцев назад +2

    Love these videos. Great job

  • @YoureTalkingToHim
    @YoureTalkingToHim 5 месяцев назад

    Great videos!
    A couple housing expenses to consider in retirement are insurance and HOA dues, along with taxes they will increase over time.

  • @yanmcrae6106
    @yanmcrae6106 6 месяцев назад

    You make very clear videos. Based on these videos and various calculators I am much better prepared for my eventual retirement. I always knew it was beneficial to have a federal pension + social security but I now understand how beneficial it will be. And yet, we all worry about health care and ending up homeless, sigh. Thanks for helping alleviate some of those catastrophizing thoughts. Cheers

  • @dforrest4503
    @dforrest4503 6 месяцев назад +1

    They have a lot of ways to cut back if they have a poor sequence of returns, and can also take Social Security earlier if needed. An interesting case study!

  • @vickig6080
    @vickig6080 6 месяцев назад

    Excellent info and clear example of what needs to be examined and why. Thank you!

  • @heidikamrath1951
    @heidikamrath1951 6 месяцев назад +1

    Another great video, James! You are consistently amazing! Thank you!

  • @panodanno
    @panodanno 6 месяцев назад

    Excellent information and walkthrough of the steps to evaluate retirement timing. Thank you!

  • @madras61
    @madras61 6 месяцев назад

    Great video and must watch

  • @livezero264
    @livezero264 6 месяцев назад

    First! I really enjoy the content that you provide! It is helping me map out my retirement strategies. Thank you.

  • @AlanCaldwell-uy5uq
    @AlanCaldwell-uy5uq 6 месяцев назад +1

    Should you add in house maintenance to be more accurate?

  • @spdog3344
    @spdog3344 6 месяцев назад

    Awesome vid! I would have been interested to see the level of success if they both decided to take social security at an earlier age and get a lower withdrawal rate from portfolio in the first 10 years.

  • @markwilhelm6938
    @markwilhelm6938 6 месяцев назад

    Great video James. Very similar situation to ours in about 5 years time with similar goals. We will definitely be travelling. Here is a thought. Taking 3-4 big trips a year for $20K is costly and can be stressful (think long flights, packing, go-go-go). Rather, pick a region and go live as an Expat for 6-12 months. Living expenses in Asia, South America, many parts of Europe can be 1/5 to 1/2 as much as the US and many countries offer Retirement Visas allowing you to stay for a 1yr+ with proven retirement income/assets starting at age 50. Local regional travel also tends to be frequent, easy and cheap. Additionally, it gives you a better chance slow down and absorb local culture, language, and food. Lastly, many countries have inexpensive country health plans you can pay into with a standard of care as good as the USA. Summary: Your living and travel expenses could be less than $30K year! Happy Retirement!

    • @sheilaa1333
      @sheilaa1333 6 месяцев назад

      That’s what we’re thinking too! We know our current home isn’t our retirement home, so we’re thinking to sell and travel for a few years with either no home or a cheap rental crash pad while we figure out where we want to settle down long term.

  • @imonyahoo87
    @imonyahoo87 6 месяцев назад

    Dave Ramsey will be so happy with that 8.8% withdrawal figure if it can be sustained throughout. But I do agree with the explanation. It does seem doable as long as this scenario and lower withdrawals and higher inflow of money is met

  • @eastwestpicayune8200
    @eastwestpicayune8200 6 месяцев назад

    Great information.

  • @aknorth1053
    @aknorth1053 6 месяцев назад

    I understand this is a rough plan but assuming zero housing costs after mortage is paid off is missing a big expense home maintenance assuming 1 to 4% of the home value per year that is $7500 to $30,000 or $625 to $2500 a month that is a pretty big chunk of change

  • @jereamyday8999
    @jereamyday8999 6 месяцев назад

    James, I love your videos and have been trying to apply them to my own scenario, with some success and piece of mind. Have you ever broken down a scenario that involves per say a military retirement starting at 39 then starting their next career till 55 or 60?

  • @jerrylabat550
    @jerrylabat550 6 месяцев назад +2

    Your medical costs were probably low, you only included the cost of the premiums, you should include $4-5K for the deductible as well, since the deductible needs to be paid before the insurance kicks in.

    • @dturner40
      @dturner40 6 месяцев назад

      He puts in $4,000 for what he called "additional out of pocket costs" @ 3:25. He didn't separate it very well in his speaking from medicare, but he did call it additional out of pocket costs so I think he has that entered.

  • @shawnbrennan7526
    @shawnbrennan7526 6 месяцев назад

    The problem I have with the Monte Carlo simulations that I’ve used before (with USAA, Fidelity, First Command, and Pinnacle) is that I don’t think their worst case scenarios are bad enough. So what if you did 10,000 runs; what are the parameters within that black box that we can’t see?

  • @clbcl5
    @clbcl5 6 месяцев назад +11

    Why not run one of these with a blue collar couple with no more than 500K. More real world sample.

    • @shawnbrennan7526
      @shawnbrennan7526 6 месяцев назад

      Well, old school “blue collar” would have had a pension. Perhaps less money, but generally guaranteed to keep up with cost of living.
      If you want to just see a similar example where they spend less, just divide by 2.

    • @XxChuyoxX
      @XxChuyoxX 6 месяцев назад

      Realistically, that's not enough most of the time

  • @miffwak
    @miffwak 6 месяцев назад

    I like your videos, I didn't see anything about the income earned from their $1.2 mil IRA's? They can still lock in a 2 yr cd for 4.5%, guaranteeing $54,000 with no risk. They should stay in equities and would do even better.

  • @whywouldigivemyrealname5162
    @whywouldigivemyrealname5162 6 месяцев назад

    Question: When calculating your 4%, do you calculate this on all accounts or just what is currently accessible. Eg. If I'm looking at retiring at 45 with 100k of 3mil (3% rate), is this 3m both retirement accounts and taxable brokerage? Eg. 2m in taxable and 1m in 401k. Or is this 3m in taxable and whatever is in 401k is calculated when it becomes accessible?

  • @susantaylor2937
    @susantaylor2937 6 месяцев назад

    Where are you accounting for long-term care costs, like assisted living or nursing home care?

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      No one accounts for these. Because there's a very low percentage of people that has to go into a nursing home.

  • @timb6985
    @timb6985 6 месяцев назад

    James, what do you think of the concept presented in the book, "Die with Zero"? It kind of looks like that in order to get the Monte Carlo analysis to give you a Likelihood of success in the 90+% range, that you are more than likely going to die with 1 to 2 times what you started with when you retired.

  • @xrayeyes2023
    @xrayeyes2023 6 месяцев назад +1

    Car every 5 years? My car is model 2011 , maintenance is only oil change.

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      Yep should be every 10 at their age

  • @faribaj6912
    @faribaj6912 5 месяцев назад

    What is the risk ratio of these portfolios?

  • @BrianNC81
    @BrianNC81 6 месяцев назад

    Thoughts on selling out of the money covered calls within ROTH IRA to generate income or invest in covered call ETF's like JEPQ/JEPI that return about 9% dividend?

  • @anitazainal9100
    @anitazainal9100 6 месяцев назад

    I live in Singapore, I wonder if your retirement academy can be applied to other jurisdictions?

  • @roymcpherson1639
    @roymcpherson1639 6 месяцев назад

    How does the 4% rule stand up against having two well diversified etfs that grow their dividends year by year? That way, they live from dividends versus selling 4% of their investments?

  • @vinyl1Earthlink
    @vinyl1Earthlink 6 месяцев назад

    I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable drawing down a portfolio. I'd rather continue to save and increase my net worth while retired, and that's just what I've done. It really depends on how willing you are to take considerable risks.

  • @BardWannabe
    @BardWannabe 6 месяцев назад +2

    I keep hearing these examples with people assuming that they won’t be traveling as much after 80, but my parents are traveling more after 80 on nice cruises than they ever had before.

    • @fialee8ca132
      @fialee8ca132 6 месяцев назад +1

      The reality is most people are dead before they get to 80.

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      ​@@fialee8ca132correct the average age of life is 76. Anything past that and you're in overtime

  • @Jack51971
    @Jack51971 6 месяцев назад

    Question for you smart boys? Girls? I am in the 24 per cent tax bracket and the tax table for 24 goes to like 191000 then it goes to 32 per cent. Question? If my taxable income is total $100000 for 2024 then can I convert another $91000 from a traditional workplace 401K to Roth without going into that 32 per cent bracket? Or can I go over 191000 up 14600 with the personal exemption? The personal exemption lowers my taxes down to $17600 or so could I now convert $91000 plus the 14600 from the traditional to a ROTH? So up to 191000 after the exemption is still the goal to not trigger the higher 32 pc? 😊

  • @danielhurst8863
    @danielhurst8863 Месяц назад

    The way you explained Social Security Survivor Benefits could lead a listener to conclude that the surviving spouse receives both personal Social Security and the Spouse's Social Security, and this is not the case. A person can only receive the HIGHER of personal Social Security or Spouses Social Security. Nobody gets both.
    An advantage, is that a person can take Survivor Benefits till age 70, and allow for personal benefit to grow, then switch over to personal benefit. Survivor benefit does not grow after full retirement age.

  • @MsTubbytube
    @MsTubbytube 5 месяцев назад

    since so many people are not married it would help if your examples didn't focus so much on married couples. Also if you considered the case case of people forced to retire.

  • @pensacola321
    @pensacola321 6 месяцев назад

    I am 74 and spending more time and money traveling than ever.🎉
    And a lot more than $20,000.

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      All depends on how you travel. There's traveling RUclipsrs that only spend 3,000 a month and travel the world.

  • @robertduan5143
    @robertduan5143 6 месяцев назад

    My gut feeling was telling me they did not have enough for that kind of distribution for 1.6M. I would be more comfortable if they had 2 to 2.5M.

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      I would have retired based off his numbers. I would have worked until the mortgage, cars were paid off for sure.

  • @fialee8ca132
    @fialee8ca132 6 месяцев назад +3

    At 60, you prob have 12 good/ok years of life left. Working 2 more years is using up 20% of your life. Is working really worth 20% of your life? By the time you hit 73yo, you prob don't want to travel as much, your body really starts to break down, and that's if you make it that long,.

    • @markwilhelm6938
      @markwilhelm6938 6 месяцев назад

      survey says... no! stop at 60 if you can, no later.

  • @michaelhuene561
    @michaelhuene561 6 месяцев назад

    James, was the $9600 per year pre-Medicare insurance premium cost per person or for both of them together? Same question for the $4000 annual Medicare out-of-pocket estimate. Thank you,

    • @markehret6700
      @markehret6700 6 месяцев назад

      It’s Right Capital. Good program, but user license is expensive.

  • @ronlulich3694
    @ronlulich3694 6 месяцев назад +1

    I really like your process, best I have seen on RUclips. The only place I see that you may be missing is related to home ownership. Every 25 years your home needs a new roof, which is a big dollar item. Then the HVAC system every 10 years, another big ticket. How about your house needed new carpet, paint, furniture, applicances, etc. I don't see you adding money every so often to provide for them.

  • @snakeonia7542
    @snakeonia7542 6 месяцев назад +7

    Pay off the house before you retire kiddos.

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      Agree and make sure your cars are paid off so you back into retirement without these expenses since there's no social security yet.

  • @raullasvegas
    @raullasvegas 6 месяцев назад +1

    They have plenty of money. They should just enjoy their yourth, and adjust the plan if shit goes south in the future. I used to think Monte Carlo was the way to go, but its pointless. You can always adjust in the future. Because you adjust every year, the Monte Carlo servers no purpose. Your better off using flat percentages.

  • @donprior2806
    @donprior2806 6 месяцев назад

    Why not take social security earlier so you have income and not draw down your portfolio so drastically over the first 10 years?

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      Yep this is another thing. I'm pulling at 62.

  • @cyclemiler2695
    @cyclemiler2695 6 месяцев назад

    Seems to me that they have enough cash to live off for the first couple years thus driving their health care expenses under ACA to practically zero for those years

  • @Markrtsoon
    @Markrtsoon 6 месяцев назад +3

    $20k a year for travel? That is only for two round trip international first class tickets. Also, $25k every 5 year for car? What car could you buy for $25k?

    • @pensacola321
      @pensacola321 6 месяцев назад

      If you buy a $35,000 car and then trade it in after a certain amount of time it might work.

    • @StormyEyes00-nb4qh
      @StormyEyes00-nb4qh 6 месяцев назад +1

      Presumably they’d be trading in (or privately selling) their well maintained 10 year old car each time, so add that value to the 25K.
      The couple chose their travel budget. Presumably they are not planning to buy $10K RT airline tickets. Maybe they are flying coach or traveling domestically. Their call.

    • @hrw3mom103
      @hrw3mom103 6 месяцев назад

      We use points/miles to travel and rarely pay cash for tickets. We travel internationally several times a year for far less than $20k.

    • @mmaranta785
      @mmaranta785 6 месяцев назад

      Toyota Corolla LE

  • @alandennis5784
    @alandennis5784 6 месяцев назад

    What software do you use? How can I get a session or do this at home?

    • @katrinaotto7545
      @katrinaotto7545 6 месяцев назад

      Here's another question James. Please what do you think will be the next APPL in terms of growth, considering the unpredictable market volatility?

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      ​@@katrinaotto7545lol

  • @crazykid-hd5kl
    @crazykid-hd5kl 6 месяцев назад

    What type of software do you use?

    • @markkeller9378
      @markkeller9378 6 месяцев назад

      That is Wright Capital Software. He is showing only a fraction of what it can do.

  • @everlastingarms3065
    @everlastingarms3065 3 месяца назад

    If they could work part-time for a couple of years, that would mitigate a lot of their risk without costing them two whole years of prime-time healthy life.

  • @Loralit4
    @Loralit4 6 месяцев назад

    James, love your content. Would you include more diverse names when you do the case studies?

    • @Cenlalowell
      @Cenlalowell 6 месяцев назад

      You can't be serious

  • @70qq
    @70qq 6 месяцев назад

    🤘

  • @davedeboy5726
    @davedeboy5726 4 месяца назад

    When you have 8 mil you can retire.

  • @Abraham.Lincoln22
    @Abraham.Lincoln22 6 месяцев назад

    👍🇺🇸

  • @ericolens3
    @ericolens3 6 месяцев назад

    FIRST

  • @pensacola321
    @pensacola321 6 месяцев назад

    Too complicated, too optimistic and too risky.

  • @beatricerights
    @beatricerights 6 месяцев назад +2

    I could have told them they could retire with that 2 million dollar portfolio without all the gymnastics.

    • @ordinaryhuman5645
      @ordinaryhuman5645 6 месяцев назад

      But would they believe you and be comfortable with the plan without the gymnastics?

    • @brian1204
      @brian1204 6 месяцев назад +1

      In your envy you missed the point.

  • @timalan7406
    @timalan7406 6 месяцев назад +1

    This video is too slow and drawn out- I just can't watch it.

  • @emt52889
    @emt52889 6 месяцев назад

    First!

  • @yostevedotcom
    @yostevedotcom 6 месяцев назад

    If Frankie Munez kept his good looks growing up.