Said this in the live chat and I’ll say it now 2/5 at Bellagio, it’s a Monday afternoon. UTG limps. All I need to know. They play is fold that hand PF, cash out, go to the pool for like six hours, and come back when the game is less depressing!
Thin value has been a big improvement in my game after watching your videos. The problem is I suck at betting for thin value and folding with good odds.
Great lesson! Under-discussed here maybe is the turn play. In live games, you need to have courage to bet turn here when you don't improve and size/speed in such a way that continues the story that you might only have 99 or overs. That size/speed varies by player and game dynamic. But if you get them to call turn, you're very likely to own them again on the river (or value own yourself when their miracle 2 pair hits).
Good Advice. As they will have to evaluate what your hand is. As I see bluffing as an out as well. If for some reason you don't river a card that improves your hand. I just don't make a habit of this either..
I love it. I'm no Bart Hanson, but here are my basic thoughts: It's almost always better to go for thin value than to check and hope they bluff. I assume that nobody bluffs until I see otherwise. I assume that nobody folds a decent hand until I see otherwise
At first glance I thought this was almost too thin, but counting combos it looks like a super obvious bet to me now. What do you think of the following range for villain bart? not in range: AA/KK/AK/QQ/JJ combos we lose against: (1) AhQh (6) QJ (1) Ah4h = 8 combos combos we win against: (8) KJ (8) JT, (1) Jh9h, (8) AhXh combos that excludes AK,AQ and A4 = 25 combos Of those pretty much none of the Jx combos will bluff against us if we check (17 combos), and maybe a small percent of the 8 AhXh might bluff with their missed flush, but some people of course will just try to win with ace high. Was really surprised when doing this math just how far ahead we probably are here. I think a simpler way to think about it is that adding just one higher card on one-draw type board usually means there are very few additional combos that catch up to you.
@@calinator51 Ya but only the suited versions of those would ever make it to the river, so add 2 more combos I guess. I didn't include a number of lower flush draws that could make it or miss which is a fair point.
@@neilquinn you can’t include all the flush draws because they won’t call your value bet. Also J9hh is impossible… Hands that almost definitely call and you beat are: KJ (8), JTs (2) that’s 10 combos. Hands that definitely call (or raise) and you lose to are: A4hh (1) QJ (6) KQhh (1) QThh (1) That’s 9 combos. So I’d say it’s pretty tight. If he can have AQhh then it’s a tie. Now maybe you argue he has all JTo which gives another 6 combos of hands you beat. But then does he ever slow play 22/33/55? Probably not but who knows.
How loose is our opponent. Calling a raise with JToff/QJoff/KJoff is a bit thin. But, of course, a lot of folks will do so. They will also call more if you have been raising a lot from this position on a wide range. If they only call the suited versions of these hands and you can include J9s aa well, the math changes a lot. I also think he could have flopped a set and chosen to call until the river. My first guess it that he has about 4 KJ (all KJ suited and a few KJ off. 4 JT and maybe just the 2 J9s . I'd give him about 3 QJ hands since he should be folding some of them preflop. I'd give him 22, 33 and 55 also, but maybe only 1 55 instead of 3. He has all the AhXh, including AhQh. He might call the turn with any AK/AQ hand too, if he is fool enough to count all 10 of his outs as live. Maybe give him 1 or 2 of those. I might give him one 54s hand too, since some players will just fold to the initial raise. So give him 3-QJ, 1-55, 3-33, 3-22 and 2-A4s that beat you. (he might peel As4s, though that one should probably bluff raise). This gives him 12 combos that beat you. and 10 value hands that you are still ahead of. WIth all this in mind, what will he raise with? Probably just QJ. Even AhQh and KhQH should be very leery of raising. Your value range has all the AA/KK/QQ and JJ and possibly sets too. Most of your value range beats his pair of Queens. For this reason, a bet/fold strategy seems OK, especially since actual opponents probably have a wider range since live players always show up with random stuff like 99 or 56s or A2s With this SPR, a bet/fold strategy seems odd, but it probably still best. But because so much of his calling range does beat me, I am not betting all in here.
Thin value at the river looks like a great play here. But I think a check on the river is better. To be honest villian is not supposed to call that thin at the river. What is he beating when hero is the preflop raiser. Hero has all the aces , kings , queens and ace jacks. He is not beating any value hand there. I much rather hero play it as a bluff catcher. Because villian will have plenty of missed flushes there.
Problem is. If he checks. He has less equity in the pot. The river being a Q, Makes it easier for the guy to shove all in. And take the hand on a bluff....As Hero would not be chip stack committed to call...
@@WizzRacing Ofcourse that’s the prb. But you have to decide what is the villian more likely to have here . A missed flush draw or weak jack . He is more likely to have missed flushes. Since hero also has a jack makes it less likely villian also has a jack. You are anyway not getting value from missed flush anyway. But this play works better if hero has position over villian. Let’s say villian checks to hero at the river now when hero bets for thin value it makes more sense.
@@rocky2324rocky I get that.. My thought was he was betting on the guy having a J..But his A kicker was his out..So he had to assume that was the case on his bet hoping for a call... The River card changes that...As now he could have an AK, AQ Q-10.. Which if he was on a flush draw. He had more outs.. I didn't hear how many were at the table. So I have no idea how many cards was dealt. I doubt that many players hand those hands and folded... Why It pays to watch the players. Even when you're not playing. You get an idea of what their range is. How they bet with them. Why sometimes I will pay to see what they had. Depending on chip stacks...
I agree, but ONLY if you have seen your opponent try to steal whenever he senses weakness. I do think a really good villain will not call 3 streets with less than AJ unless hero has shown a capacity to fire many bullets as bluffs.
@@WizzRacing V shoving the river screams the bluff. No a strong hand would've done that. Neither a medium strong hand, (pair of Q) would not do that either. So, no worrying about it. Checking river is best move, and then evaluate if V bets. Depending on: bet size, V profile, a body language. That is a matter of hand reading, which H was not good at, obviously. That's why he bet big on river, to avoid going on the unknown ground (hand reading). . V was a Calling Station of the highest order. That's why H got rewarded for rather poor play. (far from any impressive).
Just kicking myself today about this. I had AA preflop, and missed my value bet on the river after betting flop and turn, it was a perfect runout as well. 962 rainbow turn 2 river K. They tanked called turn, so I put them on a hand like 10s or JJs that can't call river because all my bluffs get there with a hand like AK, so I check back just in case. But in reality I should have down bet river to get a crying call.
All the terminology about merges and whatnot... but the idea is pretty simple. If you observe a player who bluff catches too often, he's a good target for thin value.
Hold on a second, I'm confused. If we're thin value betting the river, what are the worse hands that call? Any other J, right? So we're putting him on AJ, KJ, 10J? Maybe a middling pocket pair calls, depending on opponent. Thing is, a busted draw is going to fold or bluff raise. What do we do if he jams over our small river bet (we have to fold, right)? Why not just call down or check-check the river and take our equity to avoid getting placed in a super crunchy spot?
As the caller said, we think villain is gonna play extremely straight forward vs our bet (possibly only shoving for value), and at the same time check back all his Jx and busted draws vs our check. So bet/fold would make the most sense given these assumptions.
I agree. You get put in a tough spot if they reraise all in and that is actually not an auto fold because some players will bluff off busted hearts or weaker hands. Also, you can check call against a bluff but that being said it was a good thin value bet from the results. Also with the Q coming on board I'd say it's harder for a villain to pay off a middling pair with now 2 overs.
@@calinator51 In order for there to be a serious concern about villain bluff jamming busted draws, he would have to have perceived fold equity. When hero only leaves himself about $300 behind and he would only need to be right about 20% of the time to call a shove, villain isn’t going to assume he’s gonna be able to bluff hero off his hand that often.
@calinator51 I think the point is that most villains don't bluff raise river enough. If you know that your opponent can bluff here then it would be a difficult spot
I would not have bet that much on the river, I'd go $140, as the large size pot commits to any shove now, but this is a good thin value bet, as any J will call you, and likely any pocket pair greater than 5. While you could check, and a missed flush draw might bet, villain could put you on a missed flush draw as well and call with any decent pair. We all understand this isn't the nuts, tons of hands beat you, but many hands you beat will call as well. Betting gets them to pay off, and even when you value own yourself (Which SHOULD HAPPEN) you make more over time.
impressed play (?). Yet no one mentioned that V profile is the key element in this kind of river bet. Against a CS - this is right to put the river bet. (this case). Against a NIT/TAG - that's a stack suicidal move. You can only get called by a better hand.
@@tehbombglides I can see from your 19 subscribers that you're very good at what you do. I'm not going to river with J9 with how the betting situation was going from the beginning.
I'd personally fold Jh9h because (a) no straight draws missed other than 54 and (b) I'm blocking the FD if I'm holding Jh9h. I'm a nit though so could be wrong.
@@neilquinn Usually (not always) when you hero call (against a good player) you actually want the suit that blocks the missed flush because villain isn't supposed to use missed flush draws as bluffs, as they block folds. If you're playing against a rec who doesn't know he's not supposed to bluff missed flushes, it could be the opposite though (hearts would be bad)
@@billmoran6 Interesting and makes sense with good players. Player tendencies will matter a lot too - in live a lot of players are just more scared to bluff and will give up, esp if they weren't the one firing on flop and turn.
if the villain is bluff catching with a hand like that why not just turn it into a bluff itself? everyone says the river is the most underbluffed spot in these stakes... seems a better way to get EV out of a hand you would lose at least 1/3 or 4 times. I understand about losing more money the times when the villain will be up against a monster, but realistically, what are the odds of that? Not to take anything away from the fine poker the caller played on the hand. just brought up a thought when uou talked about the villain bluff catching with that hand
In this scenario the stacks might be too shallow. From villain's perspective, even if we are going thin with a jack, we might just call getting 6 to 1. Also, if villain thinks we either have a very strong hand (overpair plus) or a bluff, then there is no sense in raising because presumably we aren't folding any value hands and will fold every bluff, so just calling risks less against our strong hands.
Any chance u will get a caller on who plays limit holdem ? I feel like limit holdem has alot more not smart players these days and no limit holdem has too many smart players .
Well he is meant to lose here with J9 vs 1/4PSB on river 80% of the time, does that make his bluff catch poor? Only if hero is underbluffing this size.
Not trying to be a know it all , but seems like a pretty easy bet. You only lose to a couple of Q flush draws , JQ , and a slow okayed set , or the rare slow played wheel
Bart I like to give you shit about wearing masks but all joking aside, this concept has helped me win a lot more. I now notice that other people dont go for thin value. The few times i value own myself i more than make up for it by getting extra streets.
I had A10 of diamonds and guy to my right rips all in and tables jacks. I end up making tight fold. Flop comes J K Q of diamonds. Folded royal flush and would of win high hand as well. Worse day of my life
I'm really starting to lose it with all these callers who talk about the effective stack as if it is a specific player or stack at the table. "I am the effective stack in this hand". No, no you're not. The effective stack might be your stack size though, if villain covers.
How often do you make thin value bets like this in your game and how has it increased your winrate?
Player dependant. Vs an unknown I'll refer to how my image has been since villain sat down.
@@williamzagarella8066 just lean towards going for thin value more often. Live players love to call
this is standard bet just like you explained. bet 150ish and fold to a shove... definitely never check this rivewr.
Not as often as I should great call
My win rate has exponentially gone up since implementing this value bet/fold strategy.
Said this in the live chat and I’ll say it now
2/5 at Bellagio, it’s a Monday afternoon. UTG limps. All I need to know.
They play is fold that hand PF, cash out, go to the pool for like six hours, and come back when the game is less depressing!
looool :D
Great show I love when Bart breaks down s hand
Bart is impressed that someone bought his stuff and actually implemented it
Truth! :D
Thin value has been a big improvement in my game after watching your videos. The problem is I suck at betting for thin value and folding with good odds.
U should watch Bart's videos crush live poker "old School value " that changed the way I play as before I did not even know what value betting was .
Great caller today
Great lesson! Under-discussed here maybe is the turn play. In live games, you need to have courage to bet turn here when you don't improve and size/speed in such a way that continues the story that you might only have 99 or overs. That size/speed varies by player and game dynamic. But if you get them to call turn, you're very likely to own them again on the river (or value own yourself when their miracle 2 pair hits).
Good Advice. As they will have to evaluate what your hand is. As I see bluffing as an out as well. If for some reason you don't river a card that improves your hand.
I just don't make a habit of this either..
Shh why are you telling everybody. Keep some secrets to yourself.
I love it. I'm no Bart Hanson, but here are my basic thoughts: It's almost always better to go for thin value than to check and hope they bluff.
I assume that nobody bluffs until I see otherwise. I assume that nobody folds a decent hand until I see otherwise
Yep. Until you've seen it, assume they can't do it.
I want this guy to call in again
How do you get to call and go over a hand?
Love the Texas comment. Moved here 6 months ago and it’s a no fold em’ state. Just pile the money in on all streets!
At first glance I thought this was almost too thin, but counting combos it looks like a super obvious bet to me now. What do you think of the following range for villain bart?
not in range: AA/KK/AK/QQ/JJ
combos we lose against: (1) AhQh (6) QJ (1) Ah4h = 8 combos
combos we win against: (8) KJ (8) JT, (1) Jh9h, (8) AhXh combos that excludes AK,AQ and A4 = 25 combos
Of those pretty much none of the Jx combos will bluff against us if we check (17 combos), and maybe a small percent of the 8 AhXh might bluff with their missed flush, but some people of course will just try to win with ace high.
Was really surprised when doing this math just how far ahead we probably are here. I think a simpler way to think about it is that adding just one higher card on one-draw type board usually means there are very few additional combos that catch up to you.
You lose against KQh and Q10h as well.
@@calinator51 Ya but only the suited versions of those would ever make it to the river, so add 2 more combos I guess. I didn't include a number of lower flush draws that could make it or miss which is a fair point.
@@neilquinn you can’t include all the flush draws because they won’t call your value bet. Also J9hh is impossible…
Hands that almost definitely call and you beat are:
KJ (8), JTs (2) that’s 10 combos.
Hands that definitely call (or raise) and you lose to are:
A4hh (1)
QJ (6)
KQhh (1)
QThh (1)
That’s 9 combos. So I’d say it’s pretty tight. If he can have AQhh then it’s a tie.
Now maybe you argue he has all JTo which gives another 6 combos of hands you beat.
But then does he ever slow play 22/33/55? Probably not but who knows.
Watched to the end…guess I didn’t include J9s for another 2 combos hero beats.
How loose is our opponent. Calling a raise with JToff/QJoff/KJoff is a bit thin. But, of course, a lot of folks will do so. They will also call more if you have been raising a lot from this position on a wide range.
If they only call the suited versions of these hands and you can include J9s aa well, the math changes a lot. I also think he could have flopped a set and chosen to call until the river.
My first guess it that he has about 4 KJ (all KJ suited and a few KJ off. 4 JT and maybe just the 2 J9s . I'd give him about 3 QJ hands since he should be folding some of them preflop.
I'd give him 22, 33 and 55 also, but maybe only 1 55 instead of 3. He has all the AhXh, including AhQh. He might call the turn with any AK/AQ hand too, if he is fool enough to count all 10 of his outs as live. Maybe give him 1 or 2 of those. I might give him one 54s hand too, since some players will just fold to the initial raise. So give him 3-QJ, 1-55, 3-33, 3-22 and 2-A4s that beat you. (he might peel As4s, though that one should probably bluff raise). This gives him 12 combos that beat you. and 10 value hands that you are still ahead of.
WIth all this in mind, what will he raise with? Probably just QJ. Even AhQh and KhQH should be very leery of raising. Your value range has all the AA/KK/QQ and JJ and possibly sets too. Most of your value range beats his pair of Queens. For this reason, a bet/fold strategy seems OK, especially since actual opponents probably have a wider range since live players always show up with random stuff like 99 or 56s or A2s With this SPR, a bet/fold strategy seems odd, but it probably still best. But because so much of his calling range does beat me, I am not betting all in here.
Thin value at the river looks like a great play here. But I think a check on the river is better. To be honest villian is not supposed to call that thin at the river. What is he beating when hero is the preflop raiser. Hero has all the aces , kings , queens and ace jacks. He is not beating any value hand there. I much rather hero play it as a bluff catcher. Because villian will have plenty of missed flushes there.
Problem is. If he checks. He has less equity in the pot. The river being a Q, Makes it easier for the guy to shove all in. And take the hand on a bluff....As Hero would not be chip stack committed to call...
@@WizzRacing Ofcourse that’s the prb. But you have to decide what is the villian more likely to have here . A missed flush draw or weak jack . He is more likely to have missed flushes. Since hero also has a jack makes it less likely villian also has a jack. You are anyway not getting value from missed flush anyway. But this play works better if hero has position over villian. Let’s say villian checks to hero at the river now when hero bets for thin value it makes more sense.
@@rocky2324rocky I get that.. My thought was he was betting on the guy having a J..But his A kicker was his out..So he had to assume that was the case on his bet hoping for a call... The River card changes that...As now he could have an AK, AQ Q-10.. Which if he was on a flush draw. He had more outs..
I didn't hear how many were at the table. So I have no idea how many cards was dealt. I doubt that many players hand those hands and folded...
Why It pays to watch the players. Even when you're not playing. You get an idea of what their range is. How they bet with them. Why sometimes I will pay to see what they had. Depending on chip stacks...
I agree, but ONLY if you have seen your opponent try to steal whenever he senses weakness.
I do think a really good villain will not call 3 streets with less than AJ unless hero has shown a capacity to fire many bullets as bluffs.
@@WizzRacing V shoving the river screams the bluff. No a strong hand would've done that. Neither a medium strong hand, (pair of Q) would not do that either. So, no worrying about it. Checking river is best move, and then evaluate if V bets. Depending on: bet size, V profile, a body language. That is a matter of hand reading, which H was not good at, obviously. That's why he bet big on river, to avoid going on the unknown ground (hand reading).
.
V was a Calling Station of the highest order. That's why H got rewarded for rather poor play. (far from any impressive).
Just kicking myself today about this. I had AA preflop, and missed my value bet on the river after betting flop and turn, it was a perfect runout as well. 962 rainbow turn 2 river K. They tanked called turn, so I put them on a hand like 10s or JJs that can't call river because all my bluffs get there with a hand like AK, so I check back just in case. But in reality I should have down bet river to get a crying call.
......it's very hard to get 3 streets of value these days....players just fold more...don't worry about this thin value BS.....work on bluffing more.
A4s also possible on river if RR fold
Is that a conversation with that caller?
All the terminology about merges and whatnot... but the idea is pretty simple. If you observe a player who bluff catches too often, he's a good target for thin value.
Hold on a second, I'm confused. If we're thin value betting the river, what are the worse hands that call? Any other J, right? So we're putting him on AJ, KJ, 10J? Maybe a middling pocket pair calls, depending on opponent. Thing is, a busted draw is going to fold or bluff raise. What do we do if he jams over our small river bet (we have to fold, right)? Why not just call down or check-check the river and take our equity to avoid getting placed in a super crunchy spot?
As the caller said, we think villain is gonna play extremely straight forward vs our bet (possibly only shoving for value), and at the same time check back all his Jx and busted draws vs our check.
So bet/fold would make the most sense given these assumptions.
I agree. You get put in a tough spot if they reraise all in and that is actually not an auto fold because some players will bluff off busted hearts or weaker hands. Also, you can check call against a bluff but that being said it was a good thin value bet from the results. Also with the Q coming on board I'd say it's harder for a villain to pay off a middling pair with now 2 overs.
@@calinator51 In order for there to be a serious concern about villain bluff jamming busted draws, he would have to have perceived fold equity. When hero only leaves himself about $300 behind and he would only need to be right about 20% of the time to call a shove, villain isn’t going to assume he’s gonna be able to bluff hero off his hand that often.
Players don’t bluff raise rivers often enough at this level to deter thin value bets.
@calinator51 I think the point is that most villains don't bluff raise river enough. If you know that your opponent can bluff here then it would be a difficult spot
I would not have bet that much on the river, I'd go $140, as the large size pot commits to any shove now, but this is a good thin value bet, as any J will call you, and likely any pocket pair greater than 5. While you could check, and a missed flush draw might bet, villain could put you on a missed flush draw as well and call with any decent pair. We all understand this isn't the nuts, tons of hands beat you, but many hands you beat will call as well. Betting gets them to pay off, and even when you value own yourself (Which SHOULD HAPPEN) you make more over time.
This dude sounds like the commentator on TCH live
impressed play (?). Yet no one mentioned that V profile is the key element in this kind of river bet.
Against a CS - this is right to put the river bet. (this case). Against a NIT/TAG - that's a stack suicidal move. You can only get called by a better hand.
watching this while playing online MTT and get dealt AcJd as the caller says that .... lol
what do you think about the villain's play? do you pay rvr with j9?
Villain was a tourist casual poker player
@@tehbombglides I can see from your 19 subscribers that you're very good at what you do. I'm not going to river with J9 with how the betting situation was going from the beginning.
I'd personally fold Jh9h because (a) no straight draws missed other than 54 and (b) I'm blocking the FD if I'm holding Jh9h. I'm a nit though so could be wrong.
@@neilquinn Usually (not always) when you hero call (against a good player) you actually want the suit that blocks the missed flush because villain isn't supposed to use missed flush draws as bluffs, as they block folds. If you're playing against a rec who doesn't know he's not supposed to bluff missed flushes, it could be the opposite though (hearts would be bad)
@@billmoran6 Interesting and makes sense with good players. Player tendencies will matter a lot too - in live a lot of players are just more scared to bluff and will give up, esp if they weren't the one firing on flop and turn.
if the villain is bluff catching with a hand like that why not just turn it into a bluff itself? everyone says the river is the most underbluffed spot in these stakes... seems a better way to get EV out of a hand you would lose at least 1/3 or 4 times.
I understand about losing more money the times when the villain will be up against a monster, but realistically, what are the odds of that?
Not to take anything away from the fine poker the caller played on the hand. just brought up a thought when uou talked about the villain bluff catching with that hand
In this scenario the stacks might be too shallow. From villain's perspective, even if we are going thin with a jack, we might just call getting 6 to 1. Also, if villain thinks we either have a very strong hand (overpair plus) or a bluff, then there is no sense in raising because presumably we aren't folding any value hands and will fold every bluff, so just calling risks less against our strong hands.
Caller sounds familiar . Does anyone know who it is?
I would have probably check called. Might get some more money out of missed draws than vs weaker Jx?
Bart did you ask his guy if he was the morning radio guy
0:13 (He is the effective stack)??
Any chance u will get a caller on who plays limit holdem ? I feel like limit holdem has alot more not smart players these days and no limit holdem has too many smart players .
Limit holdem can be tough too, but yeah, a lot of players there are just bad.
A flat is when someone raises and then there is a call
Well he is meant to lose here with J9 vs 1/4PSB on river 80% of the time, does that make his bluff catch poor? Only if hero is underbluffing this size.
is it me or does the callers voice sound like tuffish
Not trying to be a know it all , but seems like a pretty easy bet. You only lose to a couple of Q flush draws , JQ , and a slow okayed set , or the rare slow played wheel
Thinner you bet the river the more you can bluff which I like to do
7:28 why 60% and not 50%?
The river is a clear check. It’s not even close.
And that’s why you suck at poker and get invited to all the games lol
Check and let him bluff with missed ❤️ ❤️??
Happy Valentines day
LOL one of those you shouldn't be betting that but I'll call with worse guys...
TatatatataTADAY JUNIOR!!!!!
QJ should only be spades.
Is it possible i met you in Finland?
How is this "the best play in no limit poker?"
It's not. It's one of the below standard play.
extra space extra rake
I was ready for something crazy and it’s a simple value bet 😂 Click baited me 😢😃
The Vegas max cap limit is so dumb. Avoid Vegas if you want to play cash games.
Whatever you say pro.
You are never pot committed if you are losing 100% of the time.
Easy value bet on the river, BTW.
I hate the term jam anymore lol
If it’s not filmed no one cares and he could be lying
2/5 belaggio might be the worst game in the country. Right behind the Belaggio 5/10
Bart I like to give you shit about wearing masks but all joking aside, this concept has helped me win a lot more. I now notice that other people dont go for thin value. The few times i value own myself i more than make up for it by getting extra streets.
For the algo
Pressed translate to English and your comment said “for the something” (see original - translated by Google) good job google
Of what lol
I had A10 of diamonds and guy to my right rips all in and tables jacks. I end up making tight fold. Flop comes J K Q of diamonds. Folded royal flush and would of win high hand as well. Worse day of my life
Tip😁Never fold a royal flush!
Too much overthinking.
Waaay too big of a flop bet
I'm really starting to lose it with all these callers who talk about the effective stack as if it is a specific player or stack at the table. "I am the effective stack in this hand". No, no you're not. The effective stack might be your stack size though, if villain covers.