You got your profitability worksheet misaligned to your Neutron spending one. In the earlier one you had the $42 million Neutron spend quarter as Q2 2025, but in the profitability worksheet you are adding back the $42 million to Q2 2024. You're adding back the Neutron spending to the EBITDA / net income a year earlier than you should be. So for Q2 2024, the latest quarter we have earnings for, you should only be adding back 26 million according to your numbers, meaning Rocket Lab are far from profitable in that quarter with those numbers. I have personally never really believed the "profitable already" claim held water, unless the profit being talked about was gross profit or maybe an occasional positive EBITDA for a particularly good quarter. But yes, when Neutron spend per quarter is roughly $40 million, and the net loss per quarter is $40 to $50 million, we're starting to talk about being arguably at break even. I think we're just about there now, so it's more of a question how far back you want to try to argue that's been the case. (I would say not very far, if at all.)
Thanks dave I love that you have taken the time to prove my thinking on this, they are so close to being a successful company because they are a successful company!!
Interesting audio from SpaceX team discussion on recapture. Space news covers the story. Audio was apparently in advertently recorded and posted with a video game. I’d posted here, but I don’t think Dave’s channel is accepting links.
This is a great exercise to model out Rocket Lab, I’ve been meaning to do this. This particular bear thesis has never been interesting to me, you should be focused on the future not the past, but this is good data to understand the company. Particularly what Spice said! Very important to understand Rocket Labs financials!
One thing you are forgetting is, that all the capex they already did for neutron is depreciating as well on the balance sheet. If they would never have invested into these, which amounts to probably 100-150mil Dollars, they would not depreciate and therefore there balance would be looking much brighter.
Just started a small position in this at a $9.10 avg. I have a baby due in December and wanted to set up a long-term education fund. What do you think is a good strategy for adding as the years go on? Would you put your eggs in this basket?
SPB mentioned the $350M convertible note was recently raised not for Neutron but for acquisitions so it is important he stays quiet not to slip something too early and overpay for a strategic acquisitions later. Making acquisitions successful is extremely hard (seen from inside how even Silicon Valley big companies so often fail in them) and SPB has been unbelievably successful in turning acquisitions into profitable growth businesses up to now.
Thanks Dave! It is good to hear of the profitability numbers without Neutron to ease doubts of numbers guys, yet for me it's a decade-long investment so less worried there. I wouldn't mind even deeper-red brilliant growth-investment. Neutron, deep space/MSR, space systems expansion, constellations/own service infra on orbits, nat sec launches, these all are the big things short'ish-mid term and especially long term.
Yeah when I think about long term more and more Electron's numbers don't really matter so much - it was just building the expertise for Neutron & more.
Don't misunderstand they can launch a constellation now with Electron, but it would take many more launches to complete. So waiting until the Neutron is done is will offer the most cost savings. Not to mention they said the clients protion (50% load) of the cargo will pay for the launch. This would make the constellation free to launch with the Neutron.
Giving this comment a Thumbs Down because currently Neutron is only being funded/developed to be launched from Wallops- which means it can’t launch satellites to all orbital inclinations (including, any future RocketLab constellation). That’s a major impediment to competitiveness. - Dave Huntsman
@@keithdelp2312 It’s not a slip or short-sightedness. It means there’s a huge cap-ex expenditure that’s Not being accounted for that’s absolutely necessary for Neutron to truly launch the constellations its advertising it wants to launch. And implying in your original comment that the only difference in Electron and Neutron is number of launches to do constellations is simply wrong: Electron can do only limited size/weights of satellites; Neutron can do larger. - Dave Huntsman
@dphuntsman Well, I suppose they should just quit right now then. Cap-ex is always a part of any business. I encourage you to read between the lines and understand the governmental advantages of Neutron launching in America first. I'm not going to explain it all now, but just look at the governments distaste Starlink and Elons control. If you don't like or believe in Rocket Lab so be it.
@@keithdelp2312 You’re not listening. Neutron is currently only planned on launching from Wallops - not Mahia - because as PB has noted, the entire nation of NZ does not produce enough liquid methane to even load up a single Neutron if he built a pad for it in NZ, ok? As long as that lack of infrastructure in NZ remains true, that means to reach all inclinations for Neutron to truly be able to launch constellations - including RocketLab’s own constellations- they would need to build another launch site elsewhere, which is Not trivial at all; and is not currently budgeted or planned, is all I am saying. Something to understand and to take into consideration when someone tries to maintain that Neutron flying solely from Wallops will conquer the medium launch market. It won’t, folks. And it certainly won’t 24 months from now, when Falcon 9 has lost 70% of its payloads- the Starlink minis- and Gwynne dumps well over 100 ultra-reliable F9 launches on the market that cost SpaceX internally only about $15m at most, while PB still maintains he wants (Needs??) to charge $55m per Neutron launch. And that’s not even counting in the other launches that will be coming on line by that time. - Dave Huntsman
I am a big Elon fan. That said, is there a possibility of hidden value in Rocket Lab by being the next best thing should something either happen to Elon personally and his companies or if the market opens up and people turn to his competitors due to politics? Elon is very much the driving force at Space X, no one is matching his ambitions, time constraints and audacious milestones. Space X would look very different without him and my bet is that other companies would gain ground.
Part why I sold mid Sep all my TSLA to buy RKLB with the proceeds, besides the rate cut was Musk's non-performing $12B Twitter loans banks cannot resell someone, maybe Goldman, reported. This points to deteriorating execution skill by Musk, that will depress TSLA long term, and his politics and likely progressing use of substances are to me amplifying this concern.
That looks about right to me... One large source of money not accounted for are the prepayments, deposits and allocations for forward business. Keeping in mind Sir Peter has stated that these funds are NOT included in their balance sheet until the rocket fires up... Forward bookings are at 1.25 Billion... So... Quite a nice we addition to the profitability wouldn't you say...
Elon Musk looks determined to tie himself to DJ Trump. What happens to Spacex when the US government cuts Elon security clearance.l? Sir Pete looks and acts like a . . . A knight in shining armour.
You got your profitability worksheet misaligned to your Neutron spending one. In the earlier one you had the $42 million Neutron spend quarter as Q2 2025, but in the profitability worksheet you are adding back the $42 million to Q2 2024. You're adding back the Neutron spending to the EBITDA / net income a year earlier than you should be.
So for Q2 2024, the latest quarter we have earnings for, you should only be adding back 26 million according to your numbers, meaning Rocket Lab are far from profitable in that quarter with those numbers.
I have personally never really believed the "profitable already" claim held water, unless the profit being talked about was gross profit or maybe an occasional positive EBITDA for a particularly good quarter.
But yes, when Neutron spend per quarter is roughly $40 million, and the net loss per quarter is $40 to $50 million, we're starting to talk about being arguably at break even. I think we're just about there now, so it's more of a question how far back you want to try to argue that's been the case. (I would say not very far, if at all.)
Thanks dave I love that you have taken the time to prove my thinking on this, they are so close to being a successful company because they are a successful company!!
So much profit, it's coming :). Thanks for keeping everyone in the loop on RKLB! 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Did you see you were mentioned in a investment article online.
I did! Very cool!
Interesting audio from SpaceX team discussion on recapture. Space news covers the story. Audio was apparently in advertently recorded and posted with a video game. I’d posted here, but I don’t think Dave’s channel is accepting links.
This is about Rocketlab, not SpaceX progress
@@levioliver3794 indeed, although the story isn’t necessarily one of progress, it’s technical . Something extremely close to failure.
Let’s go! 🚀
Should have been all in at $4 😢
Entry point?
Rockets, like many long hard things, are the bigger the better.
This is a great exercise to model out Rocket Lab, I’ve been meaning to do this.
This particular bear thesis has never been interesting to me, you should be focused on the future not the past, but this is good data to understand the company.
Particularly what Spice said! Very important to understand Rocket Labs financials!
This is long money.
One thing you are forgetting is, that all the capex they already did for neutron is depreciating as well on the balance sheet. If they would never have invested into these, which amounts to probably 100-150mil Dollars, they would not depreciate and therefore there balance would be looking much brighter.
The makes sense
Just started a small position in this at a $9.10 avg. I have a baby due in December and wanted to set up a long-term education fund. What do you think is a good strategy for adding as the years go on? Would you put your eggs in this basket?
I personally add about 25 shares every few weeks or put an order in until it reaches my buy point
Come on you ! stop doing such amazing videos
What type of constellation are they looking to build? I watched the video with the female reporter and he hinted at something, but wouldn’t say there.
SPB mentioned the $350M convertible note was recently raised not for Neutron but for acquisitions so it is important he stays quiet not to slip something too early and overpay for a strategic acquisitions later. Making acquisitions successful is extremely hard (seen from inside how even Silicon Valley big companies so often fail in them) and SPB has been unbelievably successful in turning acquisitions into profitable growth businesses up to now.
Thanks Dave! It is good to hear of the profitability numbers without Neutron to ease doubts of numbers guys, yet for me it's a decade-long investment so less worried there. I wouldn't mind even deeper-red brilliant growth-investment. Neutron, deep space/MSR, space systems expansion, constellations/own service infra on orbits, nat sec launches, these all are the big things short'ish-mid term and especially long term.
Yeah when I think about long term more and more Electron's numbers don't really matter so much - it was just building the expertise for Neutron & more.
We want Neutron! as much as we want Dream Chaser.....oh, yeah.
Don't misunderstand they can launch a constellation now with Electron, but it would take many more launches to complete. So waiting until the Neutron is done is will offer the most cost savings. Not to mention they said the clients protion (50% load) of the cargo will pay for the launch. This would make the constellation free to launch with the Neutron.
Giving this comment a Thumbs Down because currently Neutron is only being funded/developed to be launched from Wallops- which means it can’t launch satellites to all orbital inclinations (including, any future RocketLab constellation). That’s a major impediment to competitiveness. - Dave Huntsman
@@dphuntsman Key word "currently" I didn't make my millions investing with the mentality of being shortsighted. Sorry
@@keithdelp2312 It’s not a slip or short-sightedness. It means there’s a huge cap-ex expenditure that’s Not being accounted for that’s absolutely necessary for Neutron to truly launch the constellations its advertising it wants to launch. And implying in your original comment that the only difference in Electron and Neutron is number of launches to do constellations is simply wrong: Electron can do only limited size/weights of satellites; Neutron can do larger. - Dave Huntsman
@dphuntsman Well, I suppose they should just quit right now then. Cap-ex is always a part of any business. I encourage you to read between the lines and understand the governmental advantages of Neutron launching in America first. I'm not going to explain it all now, but just look at the governments distaste Starlink and Elons control. If you don't like or believe in Rocket Lab so be it.
@@keithdelp2312 You’re not listening. Neutron is currently only planned on launching from Wallops - not Mahia - because as PB has noted, the entire nation of NZ does not produce enough liquid methane to even load up a single Neutron if he built a pad for it in NZ, ok? As long as that lack of infrastructure in NZ remains true, that means to reach all inclinations for Neutron to truly be able to launch constellations - including RocketLab’s own constellations- they would need to build another launch site elsewhere, which is Not trivial at all; and is not currently budgeted or planned, is all I am saying. Something to understand and to take into consideration when someone tries to maintain that Neutron flying solely from Wallops will conquer the medium launch market. It won’t, folks. And it certainly won’t 24 months from now, when Falcon 9 has lost 70% of its payloads- the Starlink minis- and Gwynne dumps well over 100 ultra-reliable F9 launches on the market that cost SpaceX internally only about $15m at most, while PB still maintains he wants (Needs??) to charge $55m per Neutron launch. And that’s not even counting in the other launches that will be coming on line by that time. - Dave Huntsman
I am a big Elon fan. That said, is there a possibility of hidden value in Rocket Lab by being the next best thing should something either happen to Elon personally and his companies or if the market opens up and people turn to his competitors due to politics?
Elon is very much the driving force at Space X, no one is matching his ambitions, time constraints and audacious milestones. Space X would look very different without him and my bet is that other companies would gain ground.
People want to invest in SpaceX but can't, so they buy RKLB as the next best thing.
I sold all of my Tesla stock after Q3 reporting. Musk isn't sufficiently focused on our business, and distracted by Project Herr Trump.
@@Longtack55 Thanks for the reply, I get that and respect it. though oddly speaks volumes of Musks quality and value for the company.
Part why I sold mid Sep all my TSLA to buy RKLB with the proceeds, besides the rate cut was Musk's non-performing $12B Twitter loans banks cannot resell someone, maybe Goldman, reported. This points to deteriorating execution skill by Musk, that will depress TSLA long term, and his politics and likely progressing use of substances are to me amplifying this concern.
@@j.m.7715 Thanks JM. Good timing for the RK buy. I've been adding to my RKLB chunk, and it's my largest now.
That looks about right to me... One large source of money not accounted for are the prepayments, deposits and allocations for forward business. Keeping in mind Sir Peter has stated that these funds are NOT included in their balance sheet until the rocket fires up... Forward bookings are at 1.25 Billion... So... Quite a nice we addition to the profitability wouldn't you say...
Why don’t u do videos with Vince and Matt anymore?
Elon Musk looks determined to tie himself to DJ Trump.
What happens to Spacex when the US government cuts Elon security clearance.l?
Sir Pete looks and acts like a . . . A knight in shining armour.
How far down will Elon go when his Pal Donne (Emperor Trump) JT goes down?
To Hell I hope.
Emperor Trump will win this election in a landslide, none with common sense votes on comrade Kamala.
Ask kamala turning to be a dictator😂
@@Longtack55kamala and biden is already there lol😂
@@khel9505 They got stuck in the endless queue behind the MAGAs :)