Forecast Discussion - May 4, 2024 - Significant Severe Weather Expected Today, Next Week
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- Опубликовано: 3 май 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
Significant severe weather is expected today across west/southwest Texas, where SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5). A few supercells should fire south of a cold front and east of a dryline near the Fort Stockton area, posing a risk for large to giant hail and a few tornadoes. Toward early evening, a strong tornado is possible.
Then, a multi-day severe weather outbreak sequence is possible as a potent trough makes its way into the central US. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk from Nebraska to Oklahoma for Monday, May 6. Widespread severe storms are likely and may yield an all-hazards risk, including a threat for strong tornadoes. The threat will continue through at least Wednesday.
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SUNDAY UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for tomorrow from southern Kansas into western and central Oklahoma. Here, multiple intense supercells posing a threat for giant hail and strong, long-track tornadoes are expected tomorrow afternoon and evening. Farther north, a quick transition to linear convection should limit the overall threat, but all hazards are possible, including a strong tornado or two.
00z HRRR forecast sounding in Central OK valid for 03z Tuesday... effective sig tor parameter of 15.1 (!!!). High high ceiling event *if* discrete mode is realized around and after sunset
Whoa. That severe weather threat is way too happy to see us.
1:01 lol
Glad that I wasn't the only one who saw it. 🍆 😂
😅
Watch out, I think the trough might eject soon
Hard times for the Midwest
My goodness, I haven’t seen such an active stretch of rain and severe storms in Missouri since 2019
Kansas has been very dry since then.
When all is said and done I would love a case study on May 2, 3, and 4 2024. We had a monster supercell with a tornado that had an eye visible on radar near Robert Lee yesterday May third. It produced multiple strong looking tornados throughout the day and lasted like 8 hours. One May second multiple photosgenic strong looking tornados touched down and today looks big too. This is the most significant weather we've had in our area that I can remember and if you're interested a case study on it would be massively appreciated! As always your channel is possibly the best weather related channel out there, thanks for all you do!
30:22 concerning
Thank you! Yeah, definitely adding this little stretch of mesoscale days to the case study list. Very interesting stuff
Update, trees were completely debarked south of Robert Lee TX on 208. This is a low quality video I took that attempts to demonstrate that.
ruclips.net/video/_ZVqMPUYEHM/видео.htmlsi=Kfa3iFj9_2y6mUaa
I send your videos to my friend's 10 year old son. He's exactly like I was 43 years ago, except I had to go to the Franklin Institute in Philly to see weather maps! The meteorologist there taught me how to read the maps when I was 9. Thanks, man!
That’s awesome! Thank you!
Thanks!
On the bright side - the Great Plains drought is over. :'D
(No, seriously, tho, they were talking about implementing tight water restrictions for most of Kansas during the summer. I'm actually glad for the flooding since that means the aquifers and lakes are actually being refilled)
Same for upper midwest
There it is! Very interested to hear your thoughts as Monday and Wednesday especially look very potent to me. Thanks Trey.
Every single day in the past while aside from one has had at least ENH risk. Tomorrow will be another break but then well have another few days possible ENH starting Monday as well which is wild
Amazing breakdown of both days as always Trey
Not sure if you noticed but at least for Monday, I think the very strange look with the 500mbar map is largely a facade for what’s really happening. At 2-300mbars, the jet streak that forces the powerful surface low to develop is less defined, and instead in it’s wake is a very powerful separate jet streak with an extremely difluent exit region overspreading the entire dryline (the difluence is aided even further by the backside of the other jet streak).
Thank you! I wish I had more time this morning to dig into things, but I was in a bit of a hurry. I did look at the 250mb chart on CoD; I can see what you're saying. That flow across KS/OK is quite diffluent.
@@ConvectiveChronicles you’re very welcome
Good luck out there with the rest of this sequence, also congratulations on all of the amazing captures so far in this sequence
@@krzy1867 Thank you!!
3000+ mlcape comin' up!!! yikes. will have to look at observed soundings to see if this plays out. keep us posted!
Looking forward to your thoughts/updates on Wednesday/Thursday here in Kentucky. My storm anxiety is definitely in overdrive.😅
I would definitely keep an eye out!
Thank you thank you!
As always, a great job! Will you be posting a new video Monday morning with an update on the SPC's latest outlook?
Thank you! Yes, new video tomorrow morning!
That marginal risk looking pretty sus
The disturbance taking up most of the pacific ocean looks sus
Thanks Convective! Shout out from Extreme NW ARKANSAS Today’s model is playing out- listening to the Thunder now! Thanks for your Work ☮️
Trey makes this stuff so interesting, also am I correct, I think we've had an enhanced risk at minimum almost every day since the 25th? crazy active just like from may 17 2019 onwards, except this time hopefully no may 20th 2019 disaster!
Also trey I was hoping you could add to the bucket of outbreaks the june 17th 2010 outbreak. Thanks for the video! @ConvectiveChronicles
You might be right on the enhanced risk stretch; I’d have to go back and look. And yes, 6-17-10 is on my list!
@@ConvectiveChronicles did you see the fort stockton tornado today? Was majestic, we could actually vouch for big tornadoes because the warnings had no towns, just well sad to admit...the tumbleweeds and the vegetation are under threat; also i've looked at the future models for these supercells and it seems that if they persist (hard to read cause they're 90 mi out) they could follow a more favourable environment; cloud tops already reaching 60 kft with that satellite overshooting top, epic supercell, so slow running parallel to 285 rather than crossing it.
@@sahebplays3589 We were on that storm; we weren't able to see the first tornado, as we were repositioning at the time, but we saw the subsequent two along with some great structure.
@@ConvectiveChronicles wow, that's amazing I love structure just as much!
Also tried using the NAM model for 3z Tue, and it's well...scary at the least. Not good, it makes sense why there is a moderate risk, if this improves, may even be upgraded further, if supercells pop within warm sector or dryline interaction, as in OK the dryline doesn't surge much and moisture quantity and quality builds, with low LCLs.
Now that I am in the process of watching your educational videos and case studies, I understand about half of what you are saying. :) Thanks for the content!
That's awesome! Thank you!
Great video Trey thanks for your thoughts on this event ☺️🙏😊
Thank you!
Will the Chicago area see severe weather on Tuesday or Wednesday?
I’d keep an eye out
Northern Minnesotan here. Any thoughts on the possibility of low topped/cold core supercells closer to the low in the Dakotas? I won't have time to get far enough south to chase in the enhanced risk area. I'm also thinking back to that Iowa event on April 16th, where northwest Iowa got some nice cold core tornados close to the low and most of us focused on the warm front. I could probably make it to Sioux Falls, but at the moment I'm not sure if I'm gonna try for this one.
I'm not really seeing much of a threat that far north given the pinched nature of the warm sector and the just-in-time moisture for that region.
Really concerned for day 2 event... Theres now a mdt risk for day 2 just issued... Man oklahoma is getting so much severe weather already and we are just now starting to enter May! Stay safe Trey
Yeah, it looks potent to say the least...a lot of the issues we've had the past few setups do not appear present in Monday's setup.
Wonkey weather,man, from our not so wonkey weatherman! Thanks Trey
Hey Trey I'm really worried and scared about Monday night in Tulsa is not looking good for us. Should I really be that worried I hate night time tornadoes.
I would definitely be on alert. Good news is that storm coverage with southern extent should be more isolated.
@@ConvectiveChronicles thank you for responding.
HIGH RISK FOR TODAY, (may6th 2024) first for the year
Will northern Ohio see this next week, or will it be a bust like always?
I’d keep an eye out
I see somebody's forecast is verifying quite clearly.
Definitely happy with how things have gone with this year’s forecast
I am about 30 miles SW of Topeka Kansas. Not looking forward to Monday.
Yeah, definitely keep an eye out. Good news is that a quicker transition to a more messy/linear mode will somewhat temper the threat, but all hazards are still possible.
At 7:57, what is causing the winds to shift from due south to almost due east around 700mb??
Perhaps some sort of shortwave passage or just an overall weakness in the flow.
Upraded to moderate 15% hatched for strong long tracked tornadoes. Srangely the mod is covering more of oklahoma than kansas, do you know why this may be Trey? I wouldnt thought they would of included more of northeast kansas of that area
Wonder is it due to a more discrete mode down furth south?
Exactly right; a quicker transition to a messy/linear mode farther north will somewhat temper the threat farther north, although all hazards are still possible.
Omg, will we be ok in Wayne County, Michigan??? We won't get anything significant, will we???Please, I'm freaking out... 😰😭
You are not in a risk area at the moment, but I'd keep an eye out just in case
Wow I’m early!
What do you think about that disturbance out in the pacific that takes up most of it? Lol......not really great timing for may....for normal people lol.
Wow, thank you so much for the Super Thanks! I really appreciate it!
That system is probably going to be part of our big severe weather maker this week. That jet stream sure has been supercharged!
@ConvectiveChronicles I wish I was going back home this week to chase it. I will be traveling through Kansas and up to Sioux City on Monday. Chasers gotta make sure each other eat bub.
Seems like Trey's forecast prediction is coming true so far.
He was on point last week,love it. That early afternoon tornadic supercell last Friday in Nebraska (first tor of day) I believe originated not far from where he expected things to first fire. That stuck with me and I remember. I only watch his forecasts and read SPC’s.
Ok Monday it is.
Trey 5000 cape in Texas …….
Looks like the atmosphere took some viagra
Today should be a fairly easy target and chase overall but Monday-Thursday....yeah I can see this kind of sort of be a repeat like the last multi-day tornado outbreak and potentially seeing as or more tornadoes. The fact that SPC is already talking about upgrading OK to MDT. 👀
There's not much indication this insane pattern is gonna stop anytime soon and by the end of this week, we could be cracking the top 3 tornado seasons ever....like damn..
Outbreak sequence?
An overall outbreak over an extended period of time from a series of waves
@ConvectiveChronicles Indeed. Do you believe this recent spate of tornadic weather will qualify as one?
@@postoak1828 The activity on April 25-28 was considered an outbreak; however, the more mesoscale-driven activity in TX the past few days won't be because of how localized it was.
That 1 day outlook looking sus 🤨
Played out pretty well!
Might be historic outbreak from new data coming out this morning
Not first.
It's 1993 all over again
29:28 🚂🚂
FIRST!
Jumpscare @ 30:20
What a spring this is turning out to be. I'm getting a sense May might be wild.
New Moderate Risk for day 2 for 15% Sig Tornado risk and 45% Sig Hail risk in west-central Oklahoma to southern Kansas, including Oklahoma City and Wichita.