Something that is worth mentioning is that the massive debt load issued in 2022 was done prior to the rate increasing cycle making it very cheap debt for Crocs. Therefore in my eyes I do not see repayment of the debt as a huge priority as they can likely achieve higher returns using cash for marketing and repurchasing shares.
CROX is my largest position. Unfortunately, Jimmy didn’t include qualitative analysis on them. All love them. Hopefully, they will find a way for a turnaround of Hey Dude Jimmy, can you update us on ATKR as well as do research on CE and DOW
Great analysis! I looked at this stock last week and got similar numbers (in the middle between your two dcfs), and agree with most of it. I do think no growth is unlikely, however, since internationally their brand still seems to be very strong and growing, despite US struggles. It's also a company that has such insane margins for their sector, and when they can maintain those margins or even grow them in bad years, that definitely sparks my interest.
just sell put in the mean while to generate income if you like the stock , anyway 9% as required rate of return to low knowing that the 10y is 4.38% and the equity risk premium is 3.95% and the beta for the company is 1.97
Great point about selling puts-it’s a smart way to generate income while waiting on a stock you like. I totally get your concern about the 9% required return feeling a bit low. I base it on a premium over AAA corporate bond rates, but I understand that might not work for everyone. That’s why I also include the implied return in the video -it lets you quickly compare your personal required return to see if the stock looks over or undervalued for your strategy
@@mikkelhansen3714 look at the margins since the ceo came in place..i guess their track record is quite good till now..which indications you got that next 5 years will be different?
Lol bots sure are fast😂 Could you make next video from "invest now or wait" series? I noticed that the treasury yield curve is starting to get to the "correct" shape and am wondering what your opinion is on that. Thanks for all your videos!
Have you ever looked into their actual products. Yes they reside in the footwear industry but idk how much of a direct competitor Nike or Adidas are. Their shoes are very niche and often an ADD on. People have a pair of tennis shoes AND crocs or hey dudes. Not one or the other. I'd be interested to see how they in a recessionary setting compared to the big dogs because of that.
Also one of the reasons free cash flow is flat is bc they've accounted for heavy marketing costs during the next couple years to GROW brands , especially Hey Dude. I'd imagine paying down debt might influence those projections as well
Great to have you back Jimmy!
It’s good to be back 👍
Something that is worth mentioning is that the massive debt load issued in 2022 was done prior to the rate increasing cycle making it very cheap debt for Crocs. Therefore in my eyes I do not see repayment of the debt as a huge priority as they can likely achieve higher returns using cash for marketing and repurchasing shares.
This is a great point!!!
They’ve done impressively well with the buybacks over the past few years 👍
Why even pay down the debt. Capital allocation and fashion trends are two things that concern me
They already repaid the debt and gone back to the leverage they intended..now is a pure buy back story
CROX is my largest position. Unfortunately, Jimmy didn’t include qualitative analysis on them. All love them. Hopefully, they will find a way for a turnaround of Hey Dude
Jimmy, can you update us on ATKR as well as do research on CE and DOW
Do you have an opinion on CE
Great analysis! I looked at this stock last week and got similar numbers (in the middle between your two dcfs), and agree with most of it. I do think no growth is unlikely, however, since internationally their brand still seems to be very strong and growing, despite US struggles. It's also a company that has such insane margins for their sector, and when they can maintain those margins or even grow them in bad years, that definitely sparks my interest.
Well said!
Video about ADBE please!
What are you pointing at in the thumbnail?
Been buying it is just too good to miss out
just sell put in the mean while to generate income if you like the stock , anyway 9% as required rate of return to low knowing that the 10y is 4.38% and the equity risk premium is 3.95% and the beta for the company is 1.97
Great point about selling puts-it’s a smart way to generate income while waiting on a stock you like. I totally get your concern about the 9% required return feeling a bit low. I base it on a premium over AAA corporate bond rates, but I understand that might not work for everyone. That’s why I also include the implied return in the video -it lets you quickly compare your personal required return to see if the stock looks over or undervalued for your strategy
Could you do an update on OXY? Adding more at these levels?
But where is the moat? Can't people buy similar products from a Chinese manufacturer for way less and isn't that a huge risk?
This is a great point, it’s one of the reasons I’m not buying and I’m hesitant. I’ll add it to my bullpen and see how the company develops
Well i guess people have done that for years and crox margins keep improving..if that is not an indication of a moat, i dont know what is
@@FedericoG-p3w I really dont see a moat. Margins in 5 years is what matters
@@mikkelhansen3714 look at the margins since the ceo came in place..i guess their track record is quite good till now..which indications you got that next 5 years will be different?
Lol bots sure are fast😂 Could you make next video from "invest now or wait" series? I noticed that the treasury yield curve is starting to get to the "correct" shape and am wondering what your opinion is on that. Thanks for all your videos!
I’ll update the bulls vs bears series asap and make site to include the yield curve in that video
it would be great if you could analyzed STM stock, I think that is one of the cheapest semiconductor companies with a good ROIC and low PE
Have you ever looked into their actual products. Yes they reside in the footwear industry but idk how much of a direct competitor Nike or Adidas are. Their shoes are very niche and often an ADD on. People have a pair of tennis shoes AND crocs or hey dudes. Not one or the other. I'd be interested to see how they in a recessionary setting compared to the big dogs because of that.
Also one of the reasons free cash flow is flat is bc they've accounted for heavy marketing costs during the next couple years to GROW brands , especially Hey Dude. I'd imagine paying down debt might influence those projections as well
Buy less then 100.