Interesting idea that a peaking China drives their desire for conflict in the 2020s, and by the 2030s China's decline due to extraordinary imploding CCP demographics and vastly slowing growth will create headwinds. This is similar to geo-strategist Peter Zeihan, who predicted in his 2014 book "Accidental Superpower" that Russia would invade Ukraine in 2022 due to 1) need to secure choke points and 2) demographic implosion that would make finding soldiers for the Russian army increasingly difficult and continuing economic decline diminishes the Russian military industrial complex I'll put Mr. Beckley's book on my Kindle to-do list.
I think the Quad, particularly Japan and the USA are working to create a front that hopefully deters China all together. Plus all the boycotts and sanctions, plus cutting off the energy trade. China would be very foolish to try it. If they do, hopefully they are dumb enough do it during the two different monsoon seasons Taiwan has.
30:10 I think people overestimate the capabilities of hypersonic missiles, they effectively reduce the reaction time of an opponent. Similar to how the US has stealth cruise missiles, which is why it took so long for the US to restart its hypersonic missile program.. they basically already had something that was just as if not more effective. Also we are developing countermeasure (via tactics and tech) against those fancy missiles. 40:00 you can say much the same for Russia's invasion of Ukraine they were at a "peak" or you could possibly argue at the start of the decline prior to the invasion so this is a very real possibility for china. 44:00 I would argue that the US would have been successful and powerful today even if it didn't get belligerent. The downturn was just part of the ebb and flow of economics, I don't think its territorial expansions (won via war) contributed much to its economy. The more peaceful expansions even if aggressive were much more fruitful endeavors.
They don’t even necessarily reduce reaction time. Hypersonic missiles must travel in the lower atmosphere. That means they create a larger heat signature which is easily seen by current satellites. So if you are talking long distances, hypersonic missiles do not necessarily have a reduced reaction time either.
At 40:00 which is why China has been so Mum on Ukraine. The hope (or agreement) probably was to publicly maintain strategic ambiguity in the short-term between Russia and China, and Ukraine would fall quickly and Russia would re-pivot to support China. China can't easily overtake Taiwan, and the sanctions that Russia has placed on it would undoubtedly collapse China’s current regime. So China is in a holding pattern until Ukraine is resolved.
A great interview. I love hearing from guests like Michael with more nuanced viewpoints. You really should check that the guest's audio is at the same loudness as the host. It's annoying to hear one speaker much louder than the other - as an listener, I can't adjust my volume to get both speakers to a good level. From the hosting side, it's easy to address - just check the levels before you begin broadcasting.
You can always tell someone’s over the age of 40 by how they light themselves on a video chat. It’s like if you’re in a meeting and someone’s phone rings, they’re always a gen-x/boomer. Anyone under the age of 40 always has their phone on silent and knows how to light themselves on camera.
We need to protect Australia, India, and YES Poor contrys in South and Central America! Americans have on clue that China Building islands for the last 10 years. I think they have everything up to the Phillippiens.
Honestly, while a Chinese blockade might be an easier thing for American/AUKUS subs to attrit and break, it's also geopolitically more of a gray zone than people seeing Taipei getting hit by PLARF missiles on TV/Twitter/Telegram/etc
@@jaeger1447 we blockaded Japan and that forced their hand to attack in a last ditch effort. Unless that's our plan this seems naive. Never underestimate an ideological driven population
@@jaeger1447 These guys are stuck in the past, the first part of the war will be in space, because you must disable communications and spy sats, and the US is scurrying towards space-based weapons platforms, if China waits too long it will just be glassed from space
What has not been discussed here is China's rising middle class and our stagnant middle class. This is the most troubling trend. We are starting to resemble a banana republic. They mentioned that in China the people are not allowed to complain so bad policies can continue yet the CPP has fostered quadruple pay growth for it's workers without much inflation. This has created huge consumer demand and triple the economic growth for them. You guys also said our democratic system allows for course correction on bad economic policies yet both our parties are controlled by our wealthy elites because we are so corrupt in politics and now even our courts. I will bet the Chinese have noticed this. There GDP will continue to grow faster than us. They have everything to gain by watching our own greed and corruption kill us.
As foreigner living in China I fully agree with your comment. For last 30 years, Democracies (especially USA) have failed to provide for its middle class. Thanks to Wall Street, we have outsurced our manufacturing to China and help create middle class, while our is dying slow death. Furthermore health of population in US is terrible, healthcare costs, obesity, opioids are destroying us from within. Sadly, people in west are completely ignorant on how patriotic Chines have become, simply due to situation that in last 30 years CCP has from third world country created second largest economy. On the other hand our Western politicians have done nothin but damage their own countries
@@timthetiny7538 US birth rates has been dropping like a rock last 20 years, Americans don't have kids, immigrants that come to US also are not having kids. With decline of middle class in USA immigration will also slow down in next 20-30 years, why would anyone come to country that is effectively bankrupting itself, while making basic neceseties for life (healthcare and education) unaffordable?!? Not only that, even our life expectancy is declining, this year we are officially below China, slowly we will be at level of third world countries
@@dragoaus Actually, the US population would decline slowly except.for immigration. We are at 1.81 nationally. Immigration keeps our population almost constant. China is about 1.4 nationally. There's a slow motion genocide of the Uyghur people in Xingjang. That does nothing to help their demographics. Plus there's a big gender imbalance making growth more difficult. Gonna be a lot of Bachelors. Nobody wants to immigrate to China.
This guy spits some serious fiction. The idea that the United States or Japan would sink Chinese ships over a blockage is an exercise of pure fantasy. If the US was adapt to making such moves against nuclear powers, they would have done it to Russia over the invasion of a SOVEREIGN country. And blockading China is also foolishness. That is the whole point of the Belt and Road project, over land routes to avoid American sea power. And Eurasia is not particularly US leaning as the United States has antagonized many of the countries there. Lastly, Sanctions on China would hurt us, the American citizen more than it would the Chinese. We are a consumer nation that exported our manufacturing production base, meaning we will end up suffering price hikes from restrained goods. The insanity
Uh, no. Sanctions would crush whats left of the Chinese economy. Without access to foreign, specifically North American markets, they are toast in under 45 days. We can feed ourselves, they cant without massive energy inputs. China is throwing out about 50 years of strategy since the sanctions dropped on Russia. All we really have to do is hold the line and at this point China will eat itself. And let me finish by saying F Xi, F him in his winnie the pooh looking face.
Taiwan is a sovereign country whether the world or the uninitiated recognizes it or not. I think the reason why the US hasn't made such moves against Russia is because this particular conflict isn't worth escalating to a full all out war, whereas this conflict is different. Also because people seem to be uncertain whether or not Putin would actually use nukes, but they seem more likely to than China. The belt and road initiative has not accomplished what they have hoped yet, and they rely on imports for most of their energy. Not to mention how crucial the Taiwan Strait is to international trade, and how China depends more on exports and international trade even more than the US. In the modern world, it is the gateway used by ships of almost every kind on passage to and from nearly all the important ports in Northeast Asia. About 48% of the world's 5,400 operational container ships passed through the Taiwan Strait in the first seven months of this year, providing a steady supply of clothing, appliances, mobile phones and semiconductors. Lastly, if you think that Americans are hurting now with this kind of inflation, you haven't seen anything yet if the world lets the PRC take Taiwan. The US military and all their highest tech in all other industries depends on the chips made in Taiwan.
Mostly disagree. On your first point, Ukraine is not an economic or strategic imperative for the US to risk using direct force against another nuclear power. The reason why US is giving aid and weapons is because of NATO and the US is using Ukraine to bleed the Russian military dry and finish off as much of the Russian military machine as possible without the risk of nuclear escalation. After this decade, the economic and demographic outlook of Russian will make it almost impossible for them to rebuild their military. As for direct action by US on Chinese forces, that would depend on many many factors and how to best prevent nuclear escalation (e.g if China were to attack American bases first). On your second point, the VAST majority of China's energy needs is shipped via the Indian Ocean. While the Belt and Road is being built, not all of it is successful and it will take time to get it fully built out. The volume of energy that can be delivered to China via belt and road infrastructure is too low for their economic needs due to its logistical immaturity and cost. It may get there, but it doesn't happen overnight. It is all about timing. And don't forget about India, who is not a friend of China by any stretch of the imagination. On your third point, the US already has sanctions against China. Since Trump and COVID, most companies have already started building out their manufacturing plants outside of China. Plus the US is no longer as dependent on Chinese manufacturing as before. Still not good, to your point. But in a war of economic attrition, China's economy is far more reliant on the globalized system than the US.
@@daedalusrws I would argue that most of china's trade is done via oceans not just energy. I think a good point to be made is that right now China is having to ship Russian oil/agriculture from St. Petersburg to the Chinese coast even with OBOR. Even with Russia being right next door too.
Such a great podcast/show.
Interesting idea that a peaking China drives their desire for conflict in the 2020s, and by the 2030s China's decline due to extraordinary imploding CCP demographics and vastly slowing growth will create headwinds.
This is similar to geo-strategist Peter Zeihan, who predicted in his 2014 book "Accidental Superpower" that Russia would invade Ukraine in 2022 due to 1) need to secure choke points and 2) demographic implosion that would make finding soldiers for the Russian army increasingly difficult and continuing economic decline diminishes the Russian military industrial complex
I'll put Mr. Beckley's book on my Kindle to-do list.
Love this podcast.
Would've loved to hear what he thinks Taiwan and the US should be doing in the short term and long term to protect Taiwans sovereignty...
I think China has everything up to the Phillippiens. I would leave now and come bake latter. 1 or 2 years.
I think the Quad, particularly Japan and the USA are working to create a front that hopefully deters China all together. Plus all the boycotts and sanctions, plus cutting off the energy trade. China would be very foolish to try it. If they do, hopefully they are dumb enough do it during the two different monsoon seasons Taiwan has.
Excellent conversation.
30:10 I think people overestimate the capabilities of hypersonic missiles, they effectively reduce the reaction time of an opponent. Similar to how the US has stealth cruise missiles, which is why it took so long for the US to restart its hypersonic missile program.. they basically already had something that was just as if not more effective.
Also we are developing countermeasure (via tactics and tech) against those fancy missiles.
40:00 you can say much the same for Russia's invasion of Ukraine they were at a "peak" or you could possibly argue at the start of the decline prior to the invasion so this is a very real possibility for china.
44:00 I would argue that the US would have been successful and powerful today even if it didn't get belligerent. The downturn was just part of the ebb and flow of economics, I don't think its territorial expansions (won via war) contributed much to its economy. The more peaceful expansions even if aggressive were much more fruitful endeavors.
They don’t even necessarily reduce reaction time. Hypersonic missiles must travel in the lower atmosphere. That means they create a larger heat signature which is easily seen by current satellites. So if you are talking long distances, hypersonic missiles do not necessarily have a reduced reaction time either.
At 40:00 which is why China has been so Mum on Ukraine. The hope (or agreement) probably was to publicly maintain strategic ambiguity in the short-term between Russia and China, and Ukraine would fall quickly and Russia would re-pivot to support China. China can't easily overtake Taiwan, and the sanctions that Russia has placed on it would undoubtedly collapse China’s current regime. So China is in a holding pattern until Ukraine is resolved.
Very interesting
A great interview. I love hearing from guests like Michael with more nuanced viewpoints.
You really should check that the guest's audio is at the same loudness as the host. It's annoying to hear one speaker much louder than the other - as an listener, I can't adjust my volume to get both speakers to a good level. From the hosting side, it's easy to address - just check the levels before you begin broadcasting.
Loved it!
You can always tell someone’s over the age of 40 by how they light themselves on a video chat. It’s like if you’re in a meeting and someone’s phone rings, they’re always a gen-x/boomer. Anyone under the age of 40 always has their phone on silent and knows how to light themselves on camera.
This shit is so depressing....really gotta figure out how to not get into a war like this
Interview elbridge colby!
Edit you did!
We need to protect Australia, India, and YES Poor contrys in South and Central America! Americans have on clue that China Building islands for the last 10 years. I think they have everything up to the Phillippiens.
Wouldn't china be smart enough to understand that we would commit our forces if they actually attacked us? This seems very simple minded
Not if they already know that the US is going to commit its forces anyway.
Honestly, while a Chinese blockade might be an easier thing for American/AUKUS subs to attrit and break, it's also geopolitically more of a gray zone than people seeing Taipei getting hit by PLARF missiles on TV/Twitter/Telegram/etc
@@jaeger1447 we blockaded Japan and that forced their hand to attack in a last ditch effort. Unless that's our plan this seems naive. Never underestimate an ideological driven population
@@jaeger1447 These guys are stuck in the past, the first part of the war will be in space, because you must disable communications and spy sats, and the US is scurrying towards space-based weapons platforms, if China waits too long it will just be glassed from space
What has not been discussed here is China's rising middle class and our stagnant middle class. This is the most troubling trend. We are starting to resemble a banana republic.
They mentioned that in China the people are not allowed to complain so bad policies can continue yet the CPP has fostered quadruple pay growth for it's workers without much inflation. This has created huge consumer demand and triple the economic growth for them.
You guys also said our democratic system allows for course correction on bad economic policies yet both our parties are controlled by our wealthy elites because we are so corrupt in politics and now even our courts.
I will bet the Chinese have noticed this. There GDP will continue to grow faster than us. They have everything to gain by watching our own greed and corruption kill us.
As foreigner living in China I fully agree with your comment. For last 30 years, Democracies (especially USA) have failed to provide for its middle class. Thanks to Wall Street, we have outsurced our manufacturing to China and help create middle class, while our is dying slow death. Furthermore health of population in US is terrible, healthcare costs, obesity, opioids are destroying us from within.
Sadly, people in west are completely ignorant on how patriotic Chines have become, simply due to situation that in last 30 years CCP has from third world country created second largest economy. On the other hand our Western politicians have done nothin but damage their own countries
Demography disagrees with you
@@timthetiny7538 US birth rates has been dropping like a rock last 20 years, Americans don't have kids, immigrants that come to US also are not having kids. With decline of middle class in USA immigration will also slow down in next 20-30 years, why would anyone come to country that is effectively bankrupting itself, while making basic neceseties for life (healthcare and education) unaffordable?!? Not only that, even our life expectancy is declining, this year we are officially below China, slowly we will be at level of third world countries
About 2-300 million Chinese are living at vaguely western standards. The remaining billion-plus live in deep poverty.
@@dragoaus Actually, the US population would decline slowly except.for immigration. We are at 1.81 nationally. Immigration keeps our population almost constant. China is about 1.4 nationally. There's a slow motion genocide of the Uyghur people in Xingjang. That does nothing to help their demographics. Plus there's a big gender imbalance making growth more difficult. Gonna be a lot of Bachelors.
Nobody wants to immigrate to China.
Peaceful reunification is the last thing United States wanted, be it Taiwan-China or the Koreas.
no
This guy spits some serious fiction. The idea that the United States or Japan would sink Chinese ships over a blockage is an exercise of pure fantasy. If the US was adapt to making such moves against nuclear powers, they would have done it to Russia over the invasion of a SOVEREIGN country.
And blockading China is also foolishness. That is the whole point of the Belt and Road project, over land routes to avoid American sea power. And Eurasia is not particularly US leaning as the United States has antagonized many of the countries there.
Lastly, Sanctions on China would hurt us, the American citizen more than it would the Chinese. We are a consumer nation that exported our manufacturing production base, meaning we will end up suffering price hikes from restrained goods.
The insanity
Uh, no. Sanctions would crush whats left of the Chinese economy. Without access to foreign, specifically North American markets, they are toast in under 45 days. We can feed ourselves, they cant without massive energy inputs. China is throwing out about 50 years of strategy since the sanctions dropped on Russia. All we really have to do is hold the line and at this point China will eat itself.
And let me finish by saying F Xi, F him in his winnie the pooh looking face.
Taiwan is a sovereign country whether the world or the uninitiated recognizes it or not. I think the reason why the US hasn't made such moves against Russia is because this particular conflict isn't worth escalating to a full all out war, whereas this conflict is different. Also because people seem to be uncertain whether or not Putin would actually use nukes, but they seem more likely to than China. The belt and road initiative has not accomplished what they have hoped yet, and they rely on imports for most of their energy. Not to mention how crucial the Taiwan Strait is to international trade, and how China depends more on exports and international trade even more than the US. In the modern world, it is the gateway used by ships of almost every kind on passage to and from nearly all the important ports in Northeast Asia. About 48% of the world's 5,400 operational container ships passed through the Taiwan Strait in the first seven months of this year, providing a steady supply of clothing, appliances, mobile phones and semiconductors. Lastly, if you think that Americans are hurting now with this kind of inflation, you haven't seen anything yet if the world lets the PRC take Taiwan. The US military and all their highest tech in all other industries depends on the chips made in Taiwan.
Mostly disagree.
On your first point, Ukraine is not an economic or strategic imperative for the US to risk using direct force against another nuclear power. The reason why US is giving aid and weapons is because of NATO and the US is using Ukraine to bleed the Russian military dry and finish off as much of the Russian military machine as possible without the risk of nuclear escalation. After this decade, the economic and demographic outlook of Russian will make it almost impossible for them to rebuild their military. As for direct action by US on Chinese forces, that would depend on many many factors and how to best prevent nuclear escalation (e.g if China were to attack American bases first).
On your second point, the VAST majority of China's energy needs is shipped via the Indian Ocean. While the Belt and Road is being built, not all of it is successful and it will take time to get it fully built out. The volume of energy that can be delivered to China via belt and road infrastructure is too low for their economic needs due to its logistical immaturity and cost. It may get there, but it doesn't happen overnight. It is all about timing. And don't forget about India, who is not a friend of China by any stretch of the imagination.
On your third point, the US already has sanctions against China. Since Trump and COVID, most companies have already started building out their manufacturing plants outside of China. Plus the US is no longer as dependent on Chinese manufacturing as before. Still not good, to your point. But in a war of economic attrition, China's economy is far more reliant on the globalized system than the US.
@@daedalusrws I would argue that most of china's trade is done via oceans not just energy. I think a good point to be made is that right now China is having to ship Russian oil/agriculture from St. Petersburg to the Chinese coast even with OBOR. Even with Russia being right next door too.
There's more than one way to squash an uppity bug.