Economic Fragility: Understanding the Risks Ahead
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- Опубликовано: 27 июл 2024
- Join James Connor as he sits down with renowned economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research to discuss the dark clouds looming over the US and Canadian economies.
Despite recent highs in the S&P and Nasdaq, Rosenberg warns of imminent economic downturns that could have devastating effects. From rising delinquency rates in consumer credit to the bursting of the Canadian housing bubble, tune in to discover a what lies ahead for our economy and your portfolio.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Introduction
01:00 - David Rosenberg's View on US Economy
04:00 - GDP Growth and Consumer Behavior
08:45 - Impact of Government Spending
12:04 - Housing Market Analysis
14:39 - Federal Reserve Policies
16:56 - Potential US Recession
18:52 - Canadian Economy Deep Dive
28:22 - Canadian Housing Bubble
30:02 - Canadian Politics and Economy
33:07 - Stimulating the Economy
36:12 - Investment Strategies for the Future
41:22 - Closing
#economy #investing #podcast #recession #wealthbuilding #federalreserve #housingmarket #gdp
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Развлечения
Intelligent people in the US know we are on a nose dive.
Merci for your hosting your wonderful guest, David Rosenberg. He is the best informed economist about Canada and USA too.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for your comment and for taking the time to view our content! I agree, he is one of the best!
Not just Canada, most economies
Yep the wef plan right on track needs global bankruptcy to bring in cbdc etc,, Brics to end usd dominance and bring hyperinflation that will spill over here next yr
But also canada. As he said canada is in a much worse place than most countries. But people on canada don't want to admit this.
@@urmeetuppal4231 it's the wef agenda 21,30,50 plan right on track, stinks, time to freshen the air, learn about it, then do b something like educate others soon, very soon or it will not be reversible
Canada is socialist and failing and most Canadians refuse to believe anything bad about Canada.
@@urmeetuppal4231agreed
I'm an engineer and my eyes light up when you talk about excess supply. Love Rosie!! He's the best. G'day from sunny Sydney Australia. Thanks James and David. Very interesting.
Great interview and great insights on Canada, doesn't look 'Rosie'
Canada immediately needs to start getting its resource industry built. We will faulter economically if we don’t!
If you mean mineral mining, yes. If you mean oil expansion, I think it will kill us economically.
@@user-jt7qo8do9g we are too late, not enough skilled people anymore.
David is a great example of how intelligent sometimes people that don’t scream and talk trash can be.❤
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment John and for taking the time to view our content! David is a great speaker.
The debt in Canada is primarily about the mortgage debt
Canada is in the crapper..look at make up of job growth🎉 and there is stubborn adherence to monetary inflation fighting techniques. Trudeau’s father fucked up the economy and guess what, his sons antics are exactly the same. Canucks are way too forgiving and kind.
A lot of federal institutions are broke at the moment and have a hiring freeze going on they are barely able to operate
@@cliftonboyz1959 agreed
You’re in fantasy land
@@petewick8627 do explain...
Our entire ability to maintain our industrial capacity is running on borrowed time... think about that.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! It's just a matter of time!
Love the interview. Thank you.
I knew this 8 years ago 😂
Thanks Jimmy, Rosie is always a great guest!
Rosenberg is excellent!!
Can't believe he said 'Japan is a long term play'.
How can you say that debt to income in canada is 170% and then 3 mins later say most canadains are debt free and don't have a mortgage?
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Will! I should have picked up on that and questioned him on it.
because half of canadians have a 340% debt to income ratio.
The debt-to-income ratio in Canada is actually 180%. Rosenberg was low on the number. It has been exorbitantly high and increasing for a long time. It easy to find that information.
Most Canadians don't have a mtg. The ones that do 1) are much higher than 180% 2) under report income and thus back to 1)
Renters are mortgage free
Banks should only mortgage 6X median income for the area in which the house is. This prevents the bubble and fomo. The banks provided the rope for the buyers. Above 6X median income then you pay cash. Maybe also a price per sqft range so consumers are not forced to pay riduculous price per square foot to buy 400 sq ft shoebox condo.
The 6X multiple only developed in the era of low interest rates. It used to be 2.5X, not that long ago.
@@stephenburnage7687look at long term price to median income chart.
Good interview, thanks James/David
Bingo! That’s what Canadian Government needs to do! I vote for you David for PM!
Lets hope Trudeau resigns - his economic policies have been detrimental to Canada's economy.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment John and for taking the time to view our content! Change is coming!
Wages haven’t kept up with debasement/loose monetary policy that widens the wealth gap by choosing those with assets as winners and those without as losers. That is why most people are struggling, they don’t have enough real wage growth or financial assets to keep up especially the young generations.
You do a better
Job then last guy who’s at thoughtful - he was really good so just wanted to throw that out to ya
Time well spent listening
82 comments from 30 000 views after 9 days…..right
“ Nothing is more permanent than a temporary government program “ Milton Friedman. As an unabashed free market capitalist you realize that any government intervention in the economy produces negative results including historical depression
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Glenn and for taking the time to view our content! Great quote from Milton Friedman!
no problem as long as Canadian call their America their friend, comrade and allies
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Dam rights we friends/allies!
Just cut corporate taxes so they can issue more dividends and/or buy back more stock … and at the same time do more consumer-targeted stimulus by the government. The catalyst is all tools in the toolbox that amount to a weaker dollar 🥲.
Great interview. I am a bit perplexed on one thing - Capitalists are Capitalists only when they don't mess up. And when they do, socialism kicks in - all those massive bailouts funded by tax payers (and even with that bailout money, senior management of those companies get tens of millions of dollars as salaries and bonuses). How can you square the circle - cut taxes and also government spending. The income gap with is already at record high will increase further and that would be a social disaster.
I believe in capitalism but i agree with your statement. You have to let them fail. Government bailouts are not fair to the tax payer. Its a inflation tax and wealth transfer tax really.
The US economy is only going forward with debt, it is not sustainable
“The majority of Canadians don’t have a mortgage, most of the Canadians are debt free”….and are strapped for spending. Another way to express this is categorizing it into the percentage of people renting without a house and the percentage own a house without a mortgage.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! You raise an interesting point, when he says that it sounds like Canadians are doing very well but in reality they are not.
we will see but..i do not think so...
Insightful thoughts. Is Rosenberg insisting on a trickle down policy? If top tier tax should be cut then write offs should also be cut. Let’s make it even steven.
People think recession is a relic of yesteryear because the FRB rushes to ZIRP whenever they possibly can.
Such a common sense guy. It's obvious. Why is this federal government so traitorious???
Australia also
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Joseph and for taking the time to view our content. How bad are things in Australia? Maybe I should interview someone who knows that economy.
It’s the Biden syndrome in Canada.
Actually the wef plan most western countries have been selling out to
Black rock and allies to buy up everything 4 pennies on the dollar
i would like to see what his thoughts are on the rapid increase in US debt purchases by Canada from 2018 to 2024. Low interest rates near zero from 2018-2023, when Powell jacked up rates. Big unrealized capital losses?
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/question! I will bring this up during our next discussion.
So the well healed who have made things worse, are the first to complain? Wow, just wow!
The economic crisis and downturn are all the signs of 2008 market crash 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the US dollar or is it okay to move all emergency and savings to precious metals?
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Jimmy da man!!!
Yeah, but David, doesn’t the world explode if we have deflation in an economy leveraged like this?
Only FACT is the Sun going to explode in 5 billion years. Other than that everything else is just speculation. Let's now go watch the Stanley Cup Final again.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Bobby and for taking the time to view our content! Best SCF in years!
Rosenberg 5 years ago: "We'll have a recession next year" (no recession). 4 years ago: "recession has already started" (no recession) 2 years ago: "the risk is recession" (no recession) 1 year ago: "recession is slamming demand" (no recession) 9 months ago: "recession coming in 6 months" (no recession). Trend here ?
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for your comment Jay! It's tough being a forecaster.
Wealth inequality has ruined everything.
Depends which lens and industries you look at. Travel, luxury, high end hotels, experiential spending is healthy and growing. The top half / wealthy are swimming in cash and driving these kinds of industries to record highs. Wealthy Americans are literally rewriting and rejuvenating European economies through record and increasing tourism. The bottom half, things are not so good.
Fairness smearness
Rosenberg been calling economic colapse since the pandemic
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Joseph and for taking the time to view our content. It's tough being a forecaster.
I am excited for the bear market. I have been hearing about it for a decade so I am sure it will be very impressive
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment! I know, it's crazy! The market just keeps going higher everyday.
Canada has lots of troubles but high immigration means high demands so i dont think there's a over supply issue. High population is skewing the models. keep up the good work David
High immigration means high demands? They may have plenty of demands but the funds will have to be printed to meet them causing even more inflation. They have thus far been provided free food, clothing, allowances, shelter….. How do you think this will all be paid for🤔?
Lol high demand for Honda civics if that’s what you mean. The immigrants coming in aren’t buying anything. They walk around in pants that don’t even fit them.
stock market is ultimate leading indicator, yes US stocks are overbought and due for a correction but the market hasn't 'topped' if it is making new ATHs. Frankly, I'd be far more worried about Canada then the US atm. 22m...nailed it
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I agree 100%
You do you. I'm buying barbered wire and canned goods. Lorne.
The economy and stock market are two different things. I think because the stock market hasn't crashed and continues to make new ATH's. That is causing many to view a strong economy. But once you look under the hood. You will start to see some issues.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Peter and for taking the time to view our content! I agree 100%.
Digital silver in a digital age, litecoin is a digital precious metal, not a security. Litecoin is the oldest coin on the market after bitcoin, since its inception in 2011. Scarcity of litecoin is the key feature of its technology. Everyone tends to flock to digital silver and digital gold, litecoin and bitcoin, when things aren't going well. Litecoin is a decentralized digital commodity, just like bitcoin, but not even close so heavily concentrated in a few hands like bitcoin is. Both have Proof-of-Work consensus, and both have limited supply of coins. Only that litecoin is lighter, swifter, and hugely undervalued against bitcoin. Litecoin (LTC) being a digital commodity provides a decent inflation hedge as well because there will be mined only a limited number of 84 million litecoins in total.
Canada's always struggling along what else is new.
Canada su ks
Canada has no chance in the new world...
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Canada is not perfect by any means but it is still one of the best countries in the world.
@@BloorStreetCapitalBest at what? Housing bubbles? Failing healthcare? Outdated and inadequate infrastructure?
@@Rawdiswar At persecuting people who speak out against woke-ism.
Canada has raw materials (oil, gold, minerals). That's more than Europe has.
@@stephenburnage7687owned by other multinational companies who really don’t give back much of anything
You better believe Canada in trouble when ninety percent of all private sector investment and jobs is created in only one province Alberta it’s not sustainable
Çhrist empire for Americas Australia Europe and associated areas
All we need is a train from Canada across the north pole to Russia and we can join BRICS and the new trading block and finally become wealthy. lol
Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be something anyone would fund.
So we have to make it alone. And that means organic economic theory, and a library form of government in a completely socialist Internet world. There is no avoiding the reality we live in.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Rick and for taking the time to view our content! You raise a good point we live in one of the best countries in the world, rich in resources we should be in much better conditions economically than we are currently in.
Most Canadians don't have a mortgage? Where's he getting that info from? Is he including children to arrive at "most"?
I stopped watching at 20 minutes. When did they start talking about buying gold? Predictable diatribe.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for your comment David and for taking the time to view our content! David mentioned gold because he believes the USD will drop with falling IR. He also suggested TLT.
@@BloorStreetCapital please stop. You sound as bad as Trump. Your analysis cherry picks facts to support your theory. This is basic confirmation bias. I wouldn't put much faith in your assessment. Gerry Granthim wanna be.
@@BloorStreetCapital what is IR and TLT?
This guy has cost me lots of money for being WRONG for over 2 years.
Me too buck, me too
Stopped listening to him a long time back..... but others are worse.
This is by design. Trudy is following orders from uncle Klause
I've kept much of my savings in cash for safety, but I'm unsure if it's right for retirement. Contemplating investing $400K in stocks, as I've heard investors can profit in tough times. Unsure about my next move.
Keeping savings in cash may feel safe, but it might not be ideal for long-term growth, especially for retirement. Consider seeking advice from a financial advisor to create a diversified investment strategy that aligns with your retirement goals.
Yeah, I’m also closing in on retirement, and I have benefitted much from using a financial advisor. I didn’t really start early, so I knew the compound interest of index fund investing would not work for me. Funny how I pulled in more profit than some of my peers who have been investing for many years.
This caught my interest. I worry that I have a couple more months before retirement, and I want to switch to using a financial advisor, but I don’t really know how to find one.
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I searched for her name on the internet, found her page, and reached out via email to schedule a conversation. Thank you.
Open an fhsa account..by the time you max it out in 5 years , home prices will be 50% lower in this Socialist republic. Transfer of wealth from old to young !
Another trickle down economist offers his opinion
Wacko!
BS
When did you become an expert? MAGA conservative messaging. You’re kinda anonymous aren’t you.
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