What Return Should Investors Reasonably Expect?
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- Опубликовано: 10 фев 2025
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With markets at all time highs, it's worth gauging our return expectations to avoid the common pitfalls that come with high expectations. We address this in today's video.
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This channel is for education purposes only and is not affiliated with any financial institution, although Richard does work as an employee for an investment manager. Richard Coffin is not registered to provide investment advice and as such does not provide recommendations on The Plain Bagel - those looking for investment advice should seek out a registered professional. Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers.
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@@mrpmj00 Stock prices are based on expectations of future cash flows. Do you have insight into the future cash flows of these companies that the rest of the market doesn't?
As a active investor realistically I think that anything above 0 is great :)
Why? At that point why not just invest in an index fund? If youre going to put the time into actively investing, why settle for underperforming the s&p
Over inflation
@@ctw10wilso Well, mistake is a good experience after all.
@@ctw10wilso (it’s a joke bro)
Wait, you can actually make positive returns on your investments?
It’s a shame your content isn’t more popular. This is good, intellectually honest, and perfectly timed comedic relief material. Thanks Richard! Please keep it coming
It's popular now:)
@@FrankWinchester The guy is now closing on a million subs lol that aged pretty well 😅
I only accept a minimum of 69420% per month
That’s fair
Surely 42069% is more realistic
Hello my fellow Teslaires
If you aint 69Xing your money every 420 minutes, wut you even doin here bro.
Nice
Some dude claiming "investing is easy, I made xx% in this stock in xx time" is equivalent to saying "gambling is easy, I went to Vegas and won xxxx$"
But they will never tell you about their losses.
That intro is absolute fire
Thanks dude!
As good as that outro? I'm not sure 😂
Old man value😂
I am reminded that when Buffet talks about "the short term" he is talking about 5 years.
Perspective huh
Time will pass you anyways, as I write this comment is almost those 5 years to you.
Ok! Now I know!
As a young, overly confident, bragging, six-month, couple thousand euro investor I feel called out.
Who woulda thought woke Zoomers living in parents basement, gaming, spending their government stimulus cheques on crypto could eventually get clapped 😄 When it comes to investing experience is king 👑 Rule #1 of investing - Stay humble and never flex gains.
@@James-il3tq wut? experience doesn't mean much. it's the actions. also wtf that rule. when did you come out with that?
I came here for solid investment advice not to be personally attacked
Feel called out? Justifiably so.
Yeah this is definitely a wakeup call for me. I went from 70k to 350k in the last year but with the current downturn I feel my luck is running out. I've been thinking about moving most of that into long term ETF holds and reserving a small percentage for fun plays, and this video may have been the motivation I needed to do it.
Again, everyone's a successful trader in the longest bull market in history
My favorite part of your channel is the objective, realistic, long-term investing advice.
My second favorite is the absolute shade to all of the "get rich quick" scams in every video
Everyone is a successful investor until they lose all of their capital.
In these dark times of people yoloing their money, the plain bagel guides us.
"yoloing" lol or "fomoing" :p
based
Considering that 8%-12% is still higher than the 0.25% I get from my savings account, I think I'll still invest a bit of my money into some stocks.
Rarely a better time, keep we’ll diversified and low management costs, look at Vanguard options, Good Luck
@@neilcook1652 He did it one year ago, rip.
Just make sure you keep an emergency fund!
My savings account is now 4%
Which is nice but we are in a high inflation environment, which impacts what the real return is on that money.
Its always refreshing to hear something that grounds you in reality. Back last year when Oil was tumbling down and down, I made a little over $1000 with leverage (my account size was only around $800). It hyped me up so much I thought I was some god and then managed to lose all the money I gained. From that moment on I stopped using leverage and decided to do more research to avoid those mistakes.
Its a lesson all investors will learn
@@leemacdonald6533 I learned through WallStreetBets and 2008 that I am not interested in leverage, I’m fine making small returns.
"This time it's different"most dangerous phrase in investing. Totally agree with you
That blue and warm light makes for a really nice background. Good color scheme.
Yeah! Reminds me of the game Portal :)
"Try to keep your head out of the clouds....unless of course....you're a chad like me......in which case, I'll see you on the moon" BAAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA
to the moon 🚀🚀🚀
I've started to follow your channel because of the gamestop thingy, I can say your content is superb. Even for me, that english is not the 1st language, is super easy to understand.
No one can predict the future but a globally balanced diversified approach with ETFs and a few individual stocks dotted around these should do right
You know Richard I really have to band it to you for being so well grounded about all this. The easy thing to do is get carried away and forget about disciplined investing. Obviously there are many people who make this mistake. Good for you for staying realistic!
As a beginning investor, if I could get 7% over 25 years, I’d be ecstatic!
Just recently found this channel, and I wanted to request/suggest videos on how to check a company's fundamentals to find out if they are overvalued/undervalued, making$/losing$. What ratios to use for each sector using actual consolidated balance sheet, etc. You do really well explaining topics. You could make a series out of it or something.. maybe
Instinsic value
You are most realistic and making sense investing you tuber for me
Good stuff Richard
So cool to see my fav Canadian youtubers talking to each other. HumbledTrader, Brandon Beavis, and Plain Bagel together give a great well rounded view on investing and trading!
It's a good thing that RUclips keeps showing me his older videos because truly, they are aging like fine whiskey in a barrel. In 2023 I'm just glad to hear that it's not unreasonable to expect returns greater than 6%, because this inflation is gon be here a while.
I feel like more and more at this point in time this channel is becoming a really important source of information and sanity.
The Plain Bagel intros are absolute killers! Love them
"You see these two guys. They are absolute killing machines"
Sometimes you got to go back to a great Plain Bagel video that doesn't age. Some evergreen reminders here.
The first 60 seconds of this was absolute fire! Hilarious!!!! We couldn't agree more with you on your return expectation (and your disagreement with these new short-term investing "experts". We readily talk about 9% (less fees......so keep the fees low!) over a long, long period of time. love your approach, and the production value of your video. Thanks for encouraging your audience to keep a level head during this madness!
Thanks! I needed this after yesterday's disaster
We are already back to all time highs :) March wasn't so awesome April is definitely looking better
Stonks only go up..got it 👍
Thank you for this content! It helps me stay level-headed throughout my investing journey. Your channel is filled with great reminders and info. Much appreciated!
Damn bagel talking about not being content with your percentage and trying risky strategies is true I had 40% gained for the year got greedy and yoloed calls for big money and ended up losing everything I’ve gained learn from me young bagels
The lesson learnt here dont yolo
Are you able to replicate the 40% again?
I hear you man, good looking out
@@JoelChenFa he wasn't that's why he lost everything lol. He already said it
I just bet on sports if I'm willing to lose money lol.
Having spent the last 50 years building my portfolio from surplus income my average return is 13.25% over that time. 2022 was a howler when I was down 22% but returns are not assured and I enjoyed uplift of 20% in 2023. Looking back, the spectacular returns (and falls) were at the point when I started - a few holdings went bust and others rose 10 fold. There is ONE holding that I continue to include in my portfolio (much reduced numbers now) is Shell, my first investment (I hold my original shares) bought in 1979.
If there is any secret, I suggest that investors should not be in a hurry to buy as investing is not a race, not even a marathon, it is an education in the art of discretion.
Well, Kathy Wood's Titanic investment fund, has a negative yield of 8% per day. That's pretty impressive!
Richard releases a new video. I click 'like'. I watch it.
And you comment to help the algorithm
This video aged like a fine wine🍷🥂
LOVE THE VID. been watching a few videos on your chanel, you just keep it simple to understand and with all the essencial information. love the work you been doing. keep it UP
Ahhhh this is such reason spoken that it helps calm me. I should just listen to The Plain Bagel instead of my meditation app.
Most honest straight forward investing channel on RUclips
@@theplainbagel5653 did you get hacked?
No it's an imitator (RUclips unfortunately lets people copy my name/profile pic), please disregard
@@ThePlainBagel wow. That sucks. I figured it wasn't really you. Anyway, keep up the good work. You kept me from getting sucked into the crypto craze that everyone's trying to do now.
Plain Bagel inspired me to become an investment analyst no joke.
SERIOUSLY WISE YOUNG MAN, BAGEL! A TRUE UNICORN!
This is easily the best stock RUclips channel. Love it!
It is amazing how in recent years people's expectations have changed and loads of those get rich kind of schemes have surface the market promising making you a Warren Buffet in 6 months. Consistency is the key to success - small compound returns beat short lived speculations
I'm a simple man. I see returns, I press like 😄
This was reassuring to hear. I've been investing and learning for over a year now under my father's guidance of value investing, and made very modest returns. My brother however recently started day trading during the GME hype and nearly tripled his money in one day, with no prior experience. I have to admit it's been difficult to watch his crazy returns from the sideline and not feel silly for missing out. But as you say, people do sometimes win the lottery.
It wasn’t just a lottery. The short squeeze case was publicly available. It was up to you to make the play, as many made a killing off it. Scared money don’t make money. The trick is not to be the last one holding the bag. If you’re young, you can afford to have a higher risk profile to get asymmetric gains.
@@ericp1139 Lotteries are publicly available too. Lots of stocks have been short squeezed and the vast majority don't do what GME did, let alone to that degree. The fact that it worked doesn't mean that the people who bought in are investing geniuses, it means they got lucky the same way people winning at slot machines get lucky.
Come back with about 20-30 more years of life experience investing in the markets and let us know how well the meme stock strategy worked for you on building sustainable wealth.
@@jagpro91 I said the short squeeze case was publicly available. The stock itself was publicly available too, as is the lottery. But it doesn’t matter how much you research the lottery, your odds don’t change.
Thanks for the grounding video
The stock market only go up!
Great video, as always. Thank you for sharing!
Great video. No matter what market environment we will be in, always adapt to it.
I have learned more with you than in my university, thanks for everything.
RUclips > business degree
@@WeLoveValue yeah
I get roughly 10-12% per year for the past 10 years. I have plenty of accounting clients who have averaged that for decades. managed funds (mutual funds).
love it... so much quality in it.
I made almost 300% in about 10 months this year. It is only because of the crash due to covid where great companies are dirt cheap because of the perception that the world is ending and and and. I doubt i will ever be able to replicate that outside of this extreme time. I will likely put my money in an index until an opportunity arises that is worth buying.
15% p.a. or more is well within reach if.... you've been investing in equities for 10+ years, made the mistakes, have a small amount of capital and so can invest in individual smaller caps, have made your own DCF excel valuation sheets, understand it is primarily a focus on Value investing and therefore risk minimisation, and spend c.4hrs per fortnight on valuations. That's quite a hurdle!
Fund managers are not an apple to apple comparison as they play by different rules (I.e having to trim out weighted positions). Individual, informed and patient investor who holds great companies for 3-5 years will outperform the market over that same time period. 20% is not a lofty goal with those principles. All it takes is an Amazon, mercadolibre, Netflix etc to really bring your average incredibly high over a 3-5yr term
I feel like reasonable returns are best measured on a long-term basis. I’m a passive investor so it’s obvious why I like this strategy 😛
And statistically, you'll outperform active investors over the long term
is it good? what does a decent risk avers portfolio yield annualy? i figured with dividents you can get around 3% if you are playing it "safe", which to me seems really good. doubling your initial investment after around 23.5 years (if the stock and divident is considered as a constant). im only starting to learn about investing and have to observe and read about certain stock more be4 i want to invest.
@@p.h.904 Most people will be more than happy to take a loan from you and pay 3%. If you place it into a simple s&p 500 fund, you're looking at 8-10% annual average. If you place it into a tech fund, you're looking at 15-20% annual average
I kept waiting for the reference to Ark Investments, but alas, the plain bagel keeps it on point and above board. Nice job!
Hey Richard, I noticed you've referenced different books throughout your videos. Could you do a short video listing some of the investing/finance books you'd recommend?
My friend who is a mathematician is actually on the process of getting PhD, and his research topic is on portfolio optimization.
@@GoldForecast-hb9cw nice try
Your channel is one of the best
He can't act like a Chad even when he tries. :)
That's a compliment by the way.
Richard. Could you do a video on what’s happening with the 10yr Treasury, and why it has had implications for the stock market and expectations of future rates?
Much appreciated. Love the channel.
I love your grounded content. Thanks
Its a marathon game not a 100 mtr Sprint, you may reach to the finish line much quicker by driving at speed at 300 mph compared to 60 mph , but likelihood of staying in the race is very low. Decide on your own 🙏
Plan on 5%
This video aged very very well. Great wisdom plain bagel!
I wish you were sponsored by an actual bagel company. I would 100% buy some though an affiliate link.
fyi, common money market mutual fund in Indonesia gives out 0.02% daily. Yep that's far away from 1 %, that's why I diversify
Another factor juicing markets in the past ten years is lower fees and easier access to trading. Commissions are a thing of the past and etfs and even no-fee index funds are increasing in popularity. Add in apps like Robin Hood and it has never been easier to buy or sell stocks.
The last stock market frenzy in 2000, we were using e-trade and others with $8 trades on modems or Ethernet connections. It was harder to buy or sell.
what about the canadian market? what is the canadian return?
200 year stock return average with dividends re invested for at least most of that period is around 7.7% a year, bonds 4% a year. Thats before inflation (3%) taxes on the dividends, management fees, and capital gains tax if cashing out.
In this case, the world really has changed, especially for bonds. Without a HUGE change in bond rates (either going way below 0, which makes capital gains, or rising to 6 %, which would generate net real returns), there is no possibility of earning positive real returns with bonds. It may seem absurd, but in fact the logical thing to do is to swap bonds for Bitcoin. You cannot get real returns without risk, so all the assets need to be risk on, unless you are very close to retirement.
Wtf, Bitcoin. 😂 yeah swap your 80k in bonds to bitcoin. People that hold bonds tend to be close to retirement. Great advice tell people who need the money soon to put there money into something that could collapse to literally nothing tomorrow
@@legoledgend I suppose I should clarify for anyone young or middle aged that can handle market volatility. THOSE people don't really get anything from a bond allocation. There is no point to holding bonds, UNLESS you need to spend the money very soon. My preferred strategy is to have more savings than others advise, so you can live off the dividends alone, without hitting principle. You can lend Bitcoin for a 4.7 % yield (celsius), which is better than almost any stock, so its actually not that bad as a bond replacement, ASSUMING you own enough to replace your income needs with the combined stock dividends + Bitcoin yield. In this world of near negative yields on bonds, I would be an aggressive saver, as there is no safe haven asset in this crazy world anymore.
Bitcoin could well be at the very extreme of volatility, it could easily collapse and be worthless at any point and never be worth anything ever again. I can understand putting a very small amount into it though
@@legoledgend The ZERO FUD comes up in every debate, but honestly, I don't see the case for Bitcoin going to zero, just from the current demand and the absolute cap on supply. If it got down to $1, me and 10 friends could buy up the entire supply, and we would. Things like companies can go chapter 7 and they are gone, Social Security could seem strong, until some capital rioters overthrow the government, and then its gone. Bitcoin is supported by hundereds of thousands of computers in every country, there is just no way it could go to zero, because its not under any state's control. Its not centralized, its like Napster vs torrents. Bitcoin is made to be as resilient as the internet, and I believe it is. Now could it go down 90 % ? Sure, and it has, many times in its past, and if you want to make the down 90 % arguement, I would agree, but not to zero, it has never gone to zero, because it really can't, and I think it never will.
My account is down 60%. From the original deposit. I didn't know my own style, I didn't know how to read exit signals on trades and no understanding of macro factors affecting the market. I'm consistent now. I would make all those mistakes again simply because of how empowering being able to make money this way is. FYI, I financed the whole thing with money I could lose but high enough to make me feel good winning and bad losing.
I have already watched this video. Just came to give you thumbs up
That intro was 🔥🔥🔥
We've been in one of the longest bull markets in history, and it's almost always easy to look like you know what you're doing in a bull market. It's when the bear market comes that we need to be prepared. It's not sexy, but most of my investment money goes into the S&P 500, and some of it goes into an occasional stock pick. The small amount is because I love analyzing companies for what I think has potential for a good return. I've done pretty good on most of them -- we'll see how they handle the bear market. And there have been some that haven't done so well. I love the advice here. Investing is great for generating more wealth and preparing for retirement. But the process to get there typically involves making solid picks that will steadily grow over time (things like the S&P 500) and doing everything you can to save more money for investing after every paycheck.
Thanks for this estimation. I really didn’t now what toi aim for.
Investing is not meant to be easy, as the numbers get bigger compounding can be harder, I personally Aim for 20% per year (average) which is optimistic but I have achieved this the past 5 years. So feel privileged my research has paid off but I don't take it for granted. 👍😉🚀
Everyone wants to become rich. But no one is interested in becoming rich slowly. Great points, thanks for the insights!
new subscriber here, I love your channel and your way of breaking down concepts dealing with stocks and other financial instruments. your channel has become a go to source on explanations of things such as hedge funds, short selling, etc. Things that I'd never want anything to do with, but am curious about. your explanations are very easy for me to grasp.
Excellent advice, thank you
U are looking down to retail investors ... understand r arguments but 2020 was a year for speculators ! Many people made good money ! It is different story for long term investment!
Last time he said he wasn't sure that a black swan event would happen soon because we had a 11 year bull run, the pandemic hit.
He said it again, he wasn't sure if the market would crash, though it is higher than history shows for.
SELL SELL SELL!
liked before watching
Excellent work. Really appreciate the great channel.
6 months? You're practically an expert!
Watching this in 09/2022, good times back then, good times😂
Excellent video!!! ❤❤❤
Well it all depends on whether you invest in stocks or in stonks
I was scared of seeing only 18 comments, then I saw this video has been up for 14 minutes XD. Love your videos, thank you very much for doing them.
I totally agree with what you said on people flexing high returns from making 100$ into a Million dollar, sounds fishy but they only tend to gain high returns season to season and on a short term. No wonder they try to sell ridiculously expensive courses to make up for the losses and as a main source of income.
Any Guru will confirm that it's easy to get 1% return on a daily basis. What they don't say is that it's just as easy to loose 9% on their other account they don't show you.
From my experience 1% a month is a reasonable goal.
one key point missing in this discussion is inflation ! in fact the long term inflation adjusted rate of return for S&P is not even 9.8% , it is about 7%
in the coming years we may keep having higher returns on stock market but most probably higher inflation rate ( caused by the same reasons that push the stock market higher , e.g low interest rates and QE ) will cancel it out !
Love your content! Keep it up.
I invest in companies I either like or find interesting rather than looking to make any return. My stocks are up about 13% in 6 months though so that’s not bad
Your channel is really good! Congrats! Greetings from Chile! :)
my god you have so many good videos
Excellent video. Do you have any place or forum where I can find more information about how/which ETFs to invest in? I plan to take 2-3k out of my pension and put it in the 30-40 year fund. Would a platform like Ameritrade be ok for this or go with a fund manager?
Your skit at the start..... then immediately getting an ad for the exact same chad you just portrayed, pushing his investment rubbish with property, classic!!!
As someone who looks at the dividends return. And only use the low returns when accounting for my returns. These are great numbers.
Wait so your telling me YOLO’ing can make me lose all my money ? Since when are naked calls risky ? Interesting information