BetterHelp is a $300+ per month expense not covered by any insurance that many people can't reasonably afford. Ironic and somewhat predatory, given one of the biggest stress factors people need help coping with is their financial situation and how expensive it is just to live.
Depends on how you parse the data. At the decadal level, the United States has been in a phase of sustained growth since the 1830's. Even with the Great Depression, 1930 GDP was higher than 1920 and 1940 was higher than 1930.
@@markbarta2369How much of that is population growth and inflation? Are people materially wealthier now than they were 30 years ago? Do more people have houses, cars, education, families, etc.
Well, forever is too much to ask, but consistent growth is not only achievable but very common. After all, we technology advances, we make new breakthroughs in different fields, everyday someone invents something that saves us money and time and productivity is ever marginally increasing. If not by a giant crisis or a world war, there's no reason to think that's not how it's going to play out in the next century or so.
China has built the infrastructure very extensively in a short period of time. Impressive, but in the book of economics, maintenance of this infrastructure is what will make China really sweat out its budget. Building extra lanes, ramps, buildings temporarily inflates GDP for the year, but if no ones using it, it would crumble in a few decades. The entire economic system of China is built upon this.
@umbrellastudio7481 Then why are all those high speed rail lines unprofitable and where do all the ghost cities come from and why do only a hand full of cars drive over that huge bridge near Hong Kong each day?
I have seen numerous articles and videos of china’s “infrastructure”. Storm drains in these new cities are fake. This became known widely during china’s latest massive flood. Turned out they just put a storm drain grate over a slab of concrete or just dirt.
Also that road infrastructure is at least a manageable problem. At worst you can just let the roads rot into nonexistance. But this is the country that has rush built dams like there is no tommorrow and operates the largest dam on earth. What happens when those start to fail due to poor construction and lack of maintenance?
Very good explanation of the debt. Would love to see something on de-globalization and how much affect it is really having on China (i.e. globalization not going away but is getting realigned and re-worked in ways unlikely good for China). Sort of glossed over demographics too.
Why would you want to know how something is hurting China's economy? Is it bc you are in a hole and can't see a way out, so you only want to see someone else in the same hole? Chinese people aren't like you lot. They keep their heads down and work hard. They don't care if you're doing great, or not. They do their own thing. And that's why they are making so much progress. Maybe you lot could learn from them
Unlikely good for Germany or Japan? Yes But China? Really? Go and watch video of youtuber visiting China, you should see China from someone who truly visiting it. Not from someone who sit in front of monitor making video from stitching stock images/videos
@@MrAdhiSuryana I remember watching "serpentza" ride through China, encountering it's ghost towns, checking and showcasing their shabby construction. This is just one example, but overall the same information comes out of anyone in China who is not a government shill (which to be fair, is an extremely small amount of the people within China).
Another huge problem that you did not mention is the failing banks. These banks lent a lot of money to the provinces, and also funded much of this real estate development that is never going to get paid back
Using loans as collateral for a larger loan to buy shares or start a project securing investment from other people taking out loans. Don't forget- no body owns anything in China. It's all owned by the government. Mortgages for a rental property are insane and it's commercial property, too!
The issue I'm concerned about the most is whether China, specifically the provincial governments, are actually being truthful in their reported debts. Their reported incurred debts are a massive amount already. Even if they're only hiding, on average, 10-15% of their debts through number fudging, that's an extremely significant amount that makes an already shaky situation look even more unstable. That's not even to mention that they could be hiding a much more significant amount of debt, hoping that they can string the people and National government along long enough that the economic growth will perpetuate their Ponzi-scheme like cycle of selling land to cover their debts, only to incur more debt and need to sell more land.
The debt number used for provincial debt was a 3rd party estimate based on Goldman-Sachs, not the state-reported debt. It can be wrong, but when they're basically saying that their debt load is >10x that of the US states, it's an estimate, not a blind acceptance of state-reported numbers. (I personally think they're in the right ballpark with this particular number. My concern would be the other side of the ratio: GDP may be lower than reported. Basically it feels that A LOT of systemic fudging has been going and it's all been going on in the same direction - higher GDP numbers and lower debt numbers - of which state-reported debt is one of them, so likely the scale of the problem is concerning. The fact that China has had this phenomenal growth for 40 years is actually a bad sign as it means they've been able compound this systemic failure for almost 30 years.)
@@tychay "The fact that China has had this phenomenal growth for 40 years is actually a bad sign as it means they've been able compound this systemic failure for almost 30 years" - no it doesn't. China's growth is only 'phenomenal' in terms of it being as large an economy as it is. Other countries have also had decades of rapid growth of a similar nature.
"Optimistic recklessness" is greed, best exemplified by the financial industry in the States. Worse, in the USA its greed for the collective few. But in order for the CCP to get their mandate of heaven they need to be subservient to the nation collective. So, the common Jack and Jill will fare better and have better lives and livelihoods in China than in the States. If you visited both nations, you'll get it
While actual, definition-consistent corruption does appear common in China, it's hard to tell from a western perspective how much of that is real and how much is a tool for political infighting. The evidence we have wouldn't really amount to a substantial financial drain on the overall economy - at least in terms of bribery, embezzlement, or cronyism - though tofu dreg projects are certainly a major contributor because they cost the nation way more than anyone is stealing. But all that is still discounting the indirect impact: dishonest leadership at all levels reporting and aggregating bad data which then informs bad policy decisions. I've no doubt that will be the root of China's eventual undoing.
Surprised you didn’t mention what many consider one of the worst parts of deflation, is when it’s combined with high debt. Since a yuan is worth more in the future, their debt load actually increases in real terms each year and can either trap them in never paying it off or just be a bigger and bigger portion of their income each year.
It also means they can use quantitative easing without having to worry about the inflation it causes - in fact inflation would be a positive affect in this case. Beijing isn't in much debt, in fact it's the worlds' largest creditor and asset holder, so they can afford it.
To be fair to China, most of the population does not earn nearly as much as other first world countries, so theoretically the job growth would have continued to create more end consumers. And that was a theory that did not hold up.
@@danielgrezda3339 agree there, i’m more referring to the infrastructure can only be used by the amount of people within the population and when your population is shrinking like China, investing in continued infrastructure growth (hence ghost cities, low usage rail ways, etc) isn’t going to derive you anymore benefit because there just isn’t anyone to use it.
Moreover, the demographics of China are going to cause further problems. Their birthrate is woefully insufficient to maintain the current level of population and the Chicoms don't allow immigration. This is going to be the mother of all collapses. I'm hoarding popcorn to watch. It's going to cause problems with the world but it will weaken China significantly. The Chicoms are all about superficial appearances. NOTHING is built to last. I don't think their military materiel is an exception.
Ive watched a video every year about chinas economy on the brink of collapse at least once every year for the past 10 years. This fulfils the 2023 quota, onto 2024!
It's a problem when you don't know all the information. Like if you see a car driving and u see a wall in front of it you know it will crash. If you do not know it's speed, or acceleration/deceleration. You will not know when it will hit the wall. But you watch and see the car getting closer and closer. When will the car hit the wall ? Tomorrow? Next week ? Next year ? Now imagine the wall is invisible. But you know it's there. And still know nothing about the car. The car could even be invisible and all you got is what you can hear. This is what it's like trying to predict china's economic downfall. We know it's coming. And all signs say it's near. But the amount of unknowns are large due to doctored statistics provided by the country.
@@allliquid6320 if you say it's doctored, then it could possibly mean that this perception of china about to collapse is "doctored' as well when in reality it's not.
The bubble was already there 10+ years ago, everybody knew, but yet nobody fixed it, just inflating it from big to huge. Further delay the pop will just make it even more painful.
Just another year or two and the CCP will get guns out in people's backs and make them spend their savings on more crappy condo units in order to keep the bubble going before it finally collapses.
Obviously one year it will happen for real, all strongly growing economies eventually stopped doing so after all. The question as always is, when? How far do they get before facing substantial difficulties, why those difficulties? Can one predict it ahead of time? So in that sense, there probably are a few out there making the right call on what will cause China major issues. And indeed, maybe this one is perhaps right and the sheer scale of current debt might become like heavy weights dragging the immediate economic prospects of China down. Or maybe they'll find a way out of this issue as well. We will have to see as the years go by I guess.
Thank you for the actually good rundown on why deflation can cripple economies used to inflationary policy. The idea that Joe Consumer is smart enough to go "wow due to inflationary policy, the value of my currency is decreasing over time, so I should spend my earnings now" is ridiculous. "Wow, I'm getting a raise every year! I should be good to spend this now" makes a lot more sense.
Yes deflation is horrible. People complain about inflation but they have no idea the alternative is way, way worse. The best case scenario is small inflation (2%-3% inflation) every year.
You know a rocket a going up, if it doesn't have enough fuel to Espace gravity, will eventually come down. China is that rocket trying to escape the gravity aka middle class trap. Everyone knows it doesn't have enough fuel and burning at a ridiculous rate, it's only a matter of time
its almost as if the west needs something to distract from whats coming. I can tell you now the chinese media don't spend every waking hour talking about how the west is in economic decline, even though the west absolutely is.
It's happening now. Demographic collapse is a very, very bad thing when you overbuilt. I talk to Chinese moving to Dubai. Things are bad in China. Very bad.
so what does very bad thing mean? all i hear is just bad end and collapse, but what does it mean or look like? if you are saying that the chinese are going to starve to death, i dont see that happening. if you are saying they are going to become homeless, i also do not see that happening. after all money is just a representation of commodity, and china have a lot of stuff.@@bernardkoppes4401
you did great with this one, keep doing it! I just wanted to take a moment to say how amazing your video was! I was really impressed with the quality of the footage, the editing, and the overall presentation. You did a great job of explaining the topic in a clear and concise way, and I learned a lot from watching your video. ;)
Probably very exaggerated. I once read a claim that in reality it's only 40% of their reported figures. Problem is incentive: Everybody in china is incentivized to report steadily rising numbers.
It’s funny how the issue of rezoning farmland to urban and then selling it as a lease for urban development and that the whole process makes up a large percentage of local budgets… is omitted.
I really like your videos and have watched them almost from when you started this channel. I understand that you need sponsors and when you’ve got a small channel, you simply can’t be that picky. But you’re big now and you don’t have to put up with morally criminal organizations like Better Help. Come one man, we wanna be proud on ya!
@@DuelyusSeazer and @pa_2600 RUclips punishes posting links, but the ftc dot gov website has an article you can google (as always on google, scroll past the sponsored links): "When a news site revealed in February 2020 that BetterHelp was sharing consumers’ health data with third parties, people complained to the company. As one person put it, “I have not given ANY consent to share my information with ANYONE. ESPECIALLY ads targeting my mental health ‘weakness.’” How did BetterHelp respond? The FTC says the company doubled down on deception by falsely denying it had shared consumers’ personal information - including their health information - with third parties. The eight-count complaint details how the FTC says BetterHelp’s allegedly deceptive and unfair practices harmed consumers."
@@DuelyusSeazer they came under fire a couple of years ago when it turned out a tonne of their "trained mental health professionals" were completely untrained amateurs with no qualifications at all, and in many cases not much sense of professionalism. Betterhelp wouldn't even refund people who's "therapists" didn't turn up to sessions because they claimed they were just acting as a marketplace rather than actual selling the product themselves.
@Pentagathusosaurus Good to know. Thanks alot. I'm a psych student so it saddens me to hear people financially exploit people with mental health problems
For some reason economists tend to forget one of the most important factors determining economic growth, demographics. A big part of China's economic growth was caused by a what is referred to as a demographic dividend. This occurs when a larger than normal cohort reaches their prime years of productivity. China had a baby boom from 1963 to around 1970, which gave them a large and highly productive workforce in the 1990s and 2000s, however those people are now reaching the end of their working lives. This would not be a problem except that the following generations are smaller than the one now reaching retirement age. This means that not only is China's population now decreasing, it's workforce is decreasing even faster. With a decreasing workforce the only way to increase GDP is to improve productivity, but that requires investment ether through borrowing, where China is close to maxed out, or through foreign investment, which current international relations and China's investor unfriendly government make unlikely. This will inevitably lead to very slow growth, likely negative growth when inflation is accounted for.
Anyone would could have done a modest amount of research and realized it was a massive ponzi scheme, 20 years ago. Conservatives were just too ignorant about China and were too lazy to learn the details that actually mattered. Liberals were high on the fantasy of a socialist economy(yes an economy with a market heavily controlled by the state is exactly the end game of "democratic socialist". Reality is there were plenty of people who knew the whole thing was nothing but a scam, but they were effectively silenced by Liberals. Liberals love pushing economic fantasies, it's still an ongoing problem with our immigration policies.
It's also cultural. The same people that you're speaking are the ones who work in factories etc. Younger generation all go to university now and with the advent of social media, they don't want do such jobs which made China do so well in the first place. It's all a mess in China gg
@@dixonhill1108 '...a market heavily controlled by the state is exactly the end game of "democratic socialist".' - That seems to be contradicted by the actions of all western nations. No mater how Liberal none of them have taken any steps gain more direct control over their economies, and with the exception of environmental regulations there have been no attempts at greater indirect control. As for immigration, most western nations have the same demographic problem China does, a declining population with a work force that is in even greater decline. Ideally steps should have been taken 30 years ago to increase birthrates, but that was not done. So now it is either accept very slow economic growth, or maintain the workforce via immigration.
The bubble was supposed to pop at 2015, but the government said to the god of economy "not today", they blown more air into a bubble, made the pop unbearable to anyoneone in China. Good job.
If you're concerned about the real estate bubble in China, don't look about what is currently going on in the USA right now, not to mention what happened in 2008
There's a saying in the stock market something like 'the market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent', basically meaning "don't bet against a doomed company because it's hard to predict *when* it will die". I think the same applies to China. It's built on a rotten foundation and I think a major economic collapse is inevitable... but it's hard to say when, because being a totalitarian dictatorship means the thing that China is best at is hiding reality for as long as possible. We can have bad news after bad news, and it's impossible to predict which straw will be the one to break the camel's back.
While there are fundamental flaws with the way how all modern economies work. People have been calling for china's collapse for Literally 30+ years. What does a collapse even look like?
Well said and spot on. I would only add that while the specific timing is nearly impossible to predict, the noose the CCP has put around the neck of the Chinese economy can no longer be removed. It is only a matter of time for China. Its entire economy is based on exports and yet, China lashes out at the world and destroys any goodwill it created during the past few decades. China is extremely poorly managed and this will be revealed with time. The more difficult questions are will Xi survive this and will the CCP survive this?
There is also a saying that everyone dies in the long run, including nations. If you wait long enough, say 10k years, chances are the world map will look very different.
Realistically, things in China are only going to get worse from here. While the housing crisis is an insane issue, their biggest issue is probably their aging population, which is made worse by a collapsing economy and unemployment rates. China is so incredibly fucked.
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Re deflation: another issues with it is that if prices are dropping there is an incentive to make purchases as late as possible to get the best price possible. The end consumer can gain by deferring basically anything they can put off till later. And this is also true at every stage of the logistics pipeline where stockpiles, even of durable goods, lose value relative to cash holdings. This means that (at least temporarily) demand for production can be lower than even depressed consumption rates as stockpiles may intentionally be allowed to run down.
@@hughmungus2760 easy != equal or equitable. -- Bailing out debtors helps them at the expense of people who don't have debts. That might encourage people to go even more into debt.Bailing out debtors helps them at the expense of people who don't have debts. That might encourage people to go even more into debt. What might actually work better would be for the state (in the US, the Fed) to offer low rate loans for refinancing of (only?) existing debts. At a minimum, that moves the interest payment costs in a good direction relative to GDP. But I suspect even that just pushes things down the road if you can't resolve the foundational issues that created the problems in the first place.
Has any country suffered an economic catastrophe due to deflation? Everyone always says its bad but has it ever happened? We have Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Germany, and the US to show that inflation is bad, but has deflation every been proven to be bad? Humans cant stop spending because they will starve to death. For the same reason humans dont perceive inflation until many years later, they wont see deflation either.
I like how today anyone can make a RUclips video about any topic and say whatever they want, provide ZERO SOURCES for their claims, no bibliography whatsoever, no way for the viewers to corroborate the claims made in the video... and still we call this 'information'. Technology is awesome.
@@thomasd4738 "questionable"? I question everything. So should you. Or do you generally take whatever people say as absolute truth? Citing sources is an absolute necessity, especially in videos like this.
@@pinkace Well that's an admirable instinct, but not necessary in my case, as I live in China and am very close to the topic. No I haven't checked the numbers, which in many cases are so consistently falsified as to be unknowable, but anyone who knows anything about China's economy is aware that the country is extremely deep in debt for precisely the reasons the video says.
@@thomasd4738really? Then where u live in china and what kind of job are you in? and what's your education? If you really know China economy then why they are still standing after being bombarded by "China will fail" for more a decade in internet?
In this case, the CCP has completely ruled out micro economics that are absent in state planners like themselves. What we are seeing is macro economics based mostly in theory. "Build it and they will come' has to be built by an entrepreneur in a micro model to be successful. They built it and what they got is speculators.
About the ghost cities that eventually get filled. with current building standards and cutting corners that are getting worst as construction companies' debts grows, by the time those cities get filled the cost of maintenance and repairs on those buildings would already be unsustainable.
Can you please make a video explaining Albanian economy? I am from there and I have no clue how that country makes any money and the prices of good and real estate is through the roof. It’s truly a puzzling case to say the least!
Real estate prices all around the world don't make sense. Normal people/ middle class are not able to afford them and can just look at big companies buying and selling them and say wow such a large transaction
Deflation can be so much worse than inflation. If you're effectively giving money away by making purchases now instead of waiting as long as possible, then everyone from consumers to companies are incentivized to not purchase, or wait as long as possible to purchase. This can grind the economy to a halt. Added to this, all debt and repayments get worse when deflation increases the dollar value of your debt and repayments more and more every month, possibly making some debt unassailable. The deflation might be the scariest villain on the list, even if it's just a symptom of other illnesses, because it's what can kill the patient the fastest.
@@Pushing_Pixelsthis is what most people believe. "Printing money" is the only job the central bank has. It does it all the time when money is demanded. Deflation means: nobody wants this money.
@@ThomasVWorm Deflation means people are hoarding money. Printing money is inflationary. It offsets deflation and, if used correctly, can also provide other benefits to the economy. The trick is using the money well and knowing when to stop.
@@Pushing_Pixels I don't see why "printing money" should be inflationary, when banks print money all the time. The money, which is hoarded in a deflation needs to "printed" too. Without there is nothing, which can be hoarded. And in order to "print money" banks do need people asking for a loan. Without they will not "print money" nor will the central bank. But why should people, who already do hoard money, ask for loans? And even if somebody loans money, why should the hoarder stop hoarding it? And when the hoarders hold back the money, how do those, who got the loans, repay them? And when they fail, why should anybody else ask for loans, which make banks and the central bank "print money"? Debtors are those, who do print money, not banks.
@Joe-qm4yv but it is wrong. It cannot be seen in the data in the way, that there is a cause and effect relationship between the amount of money being around and inflation. The reason is simple: an economy is much more complex than the simplistic market model of the economists.
I think deflation can be good for economy where technology is lowering costs for making goods and services and remaining price which means China will grow on margins and if government will support entrepreneurs to decrease price. I believe it could increase productivity for China's unequal demographic of population.
Exactly, meanwhile we're having inflation in the West unprecedented since the 1970s and average people are struggling to get by. But yeah, deflation is the problem.
China, unlike Japan, which happened similar problems 40 yrs ago, might end up being a lot worse. First, China has virtually no government provided welfare projects and will likely not have any due to its political environment. That leads to excessive household saving just in case something bad was to happen. Secondly, the elite class has very little trust in government, the first thing they do when they get rich is to find a loophole in China’s foreign exchange regulations and move their money abroad. And corporate leaders had been using their companies’ foreign investments as a way to exploit the loopholes, thus a lot of Chinese invested assets abroad are not profitable, most of them are shell corporations. Thirdly, the self conflicting ideology is starting to lose control. CCP self claims to be communist but they created one of largest wealth gap and provide virtually no social security, so they resort to nationalism. But this requires it to took a hard line approach on Taiwan, which in return worsens economy. Last, China’s demographic collapse will be the worse modern history, their birth rate effectively halved in less than a decade. And in 10 to 15 yrs, their largest population bulge will face retirement, over 200m people will be out of work force. This will effectively strangle China’s economy for the next century.
@@Kyryyn_Lyyhnot needed. Today you can replace the workforce with robots. And China has got all it needs to do it. And it still has people being unemployed.
don't worry about China. Their debt to gdp is still way, way lower than the US and many other Western nations. Worry about yourselves. The population bulge problem is a problem faced by ALL Western nations. And literally everything in your comment can be replaced with "American" and it would still make complete sense. As I said, worry about yourselves.
Also factor the fact the CCP will never provid you with accurate economic data unless it will show China in good terms. This is a well known fact and their strict covid policy have devastated their economy for good but would never admit that they failed.
Would love to see a video of yours on Brazil's defying economic growth projections for the last couple of years. From an initially projected 1.7% growth this year to an actual 3.1% growth, econometrics are having a hard time explaining the economy of Brazil.
It’s because they don’t understand the impact of rate rises and use monetarist assumptions - rate rises increase interest income as well - when you jack up rates peoples bank balances rise supporting demand. The non-government sector is a net saver of financial assets, which means the overall effect of a rate rise is more likely stimulatory rather than contractionary. The historical tendency of businesses to experience massive crippling cost of debt crises in the face of rapid rate rises (like in 1980, mid 2000s, or early 90s) isn’t happening because businesses are significantly deleveraged, and are able to pass on cost increases to consumers because of the market power they were shown to have in the early stages of the Ukraine war inflationary crisis - which is why a credit crisis hasnt emerged yet
It used to take one year for Brazil to export $1bn to China and now it takes 60hrs. I fear for Brazil if China collapses as this video predicts. Fortunately, this is unlikely to happen. Still we are all connected.
@@tannhaeuserx464 I think Brazil has a varied enough economy so that it wouldn't collapse alongside china. Also, Brazil has a great known how in engineering and companies like Embraer and WEG are increasing its markets abroad. Embraer latest military plane, the C-390, is taking market segment away from Lockheed Martin's C-130. And WEG is a electric motor company which probably has the best shares of any Brazilian company, as they report constant growth for a long time now. They even partnered with SpaceX for an oxygen production facility, and hopefully they will become more prevalent in the electric car motor market as well.
@@tannhaeuserx464 Well, luckily capitalism, while it didn't cause China's problems can save Brazil from its potential future problems. If they have a surplus of goods and need a market, people will buy on the cheap. China is screwed, let's not pretend otherwise. The rest of the world will simply adjust as it always has.
Chna may be in an eternal recession like Japan has. But Japan has friends like the US it can rely on. China is more aggressive and doesn't want to rely on anyone for anything. But that is not realistic for China. China may never be able to escape the middle income trap.
@@seashellbeesaveres7951India-Mexico-Vietnam-Indoneia will takeover huge manufacturing from China in the next decades. It's already happening as we speak Apple, Samsung, Panasonic, Daikin, Suzuki, Foxconn, LG all shifting outside of China. China's forced to compete in the high-tech sector. But, losing to ASML, TSMC, Samsung, Tokyo Electron, NVIDIA....also Canon Nanoimprinting from Japan just gave the West another Semiconductor Edge. BYD & CATL are China' last hope. but, it looks like EU/US/JP will tariff Chinese EVs due to dumping allegations. Toyota/Panasonic Solid State Battery with IDEMITSU & LG/SAMSUNG Solid State Batteries will be the preferred Battery choice in the long term in developed countries. So, BYD & CATL will face huge competition in a couple years to secure battery customers.
@@seashellbeesaveres7951 That same US who is Japan's friend and ally. Things change for democratic countries. Nothing will change for China and you're witnessing it in spectacular fashion. Get used to it buddy, it's going to get worse for them. Japan may have floundered but they are thriving now and will regain their place eventually to being the second biggest economy on the globe.
I’ve heard absolutely terrible things about “Better Health” and it’s disappointing they paid you off, morally there’s no reason to support such a money hungry company taking advantage of, then disregarding mental health.
One of the main problems with using GDP as it stands, is that it includes government spending. Government has nothing that it doesn't first Take from the present or the future. Governments actions also distort market signal information, resulting in malinvestment that is one of the factors in the boom bust business cycle.
China spent the last few decades playing catch up, and I think it was the correct policy. It only seems to have recently occurred to them that they're in a new phase, and that it's no longer just a question of continuous construction and GDP growth. I'm not someone with any sort of grasp on economics, so please don't ask me to explain further than that.
It's correct, economies have a catching up growth stage and cutting edge stage. In catching up stage, they have no much need for innovation, as they rely on tech from advanced countries, its the place where most global south and some asian countries are like India. During this stage there is rapid economic growth. Expect higher economic growth rates from them. After that, the cutting edge stage, where innovation drives economic growth, I think China is simply transitioning to this stage, so expect more innovation from China. Developed countries, The West , US, Japan, S Korea, etc, are in this stage, the major driver for economic growth is Innovation.
China invested in infrastructure to keep people artificially employed. Because of that, what was built often wasn't needed and of extremely poor quality which is coming home to roost with infrastructure falling apart after a few years or it having taken the money and never actually built it (i.e. Drains that don't lead anywhere or or just laid on the ground). Unlike other countries the CCP never built up the internal, value-add economy, instead using its people as simply eyes and fingers to assemble products built with foreign capital, materials, equipment, technology and expertise to be shipped to foreign markets, protected by foreign warships while antagonizing their local neighbors and those whom they are dependent on for all those fore-amentioned inputs and markets. Now they're getting everything they demanded and discovering they're not a superpower by any stretch of the imagination without globalization to back them up. Ugly times ahead.
China will fall some day. It already did in the past. After more than 2000 years. So why shouldn't it happen again? So we will have to live with such predictions for the next thousands of years.
The issue with China's reduction in growth is that it starts out with the engine of the Chinese economy. That "engine" is made up of exports and consumer spending. If you remove any part of the engine the vehicle will keep on rolling, but eventually slow to a halt. Most of China's GDP is fueled by exports and consumer spending. So if consumers stop taking loans and stop buying consumer products you remove the foundation. Same goes if you remove exports.
This channel is a perfect example of a content creator tapping into the western paranoia machine and taking advantage of it. If you scroll through the titles/topics of the videos here and they are almost exclusively geared towards the western conservative/right leaning individuals. Claiming China and Russia are boogeymen, how Israel is a “miracle” and how India will be “bigger than China” - is this a joke? LOL. Domestically he only discusses California and Detroit, but won’t discuss Arkansas or Mississippi. 😂 The cherry on top is that arguments he makes in each of his videos is based solely on a number of certain factors COMING TRUE (if they ever do). RUclips is littered with lazy content like this - flashy titles with lazy arguments. 😂
It's some kind of weird superposition of a country. Depending on the time the U.S. government looks at it, it is either independent or part of "one China." Not my personal view. Just an observation of the manipulative political machinery working.
@@MayankTrivedi2 Another option: The world and the PRC recognize that the ROC is a separate nation that does wish to live under communism and everyone lives in peace and respects each other.
@@noname-xo1btThe US never officially considers the ROC independent. They're very careful to avoid that. All thir dealings with them actually treat them like a Chinese province officially
This is a great video. Is it possible to make a similar video about Sweden? They also have a high household debt and also the municipalities borrow like crazy
China would have collapsed but somehow they managed to fool consumers by getting them to buy real estate. Using that money for more real estate projects to make GDP grow higher. But consumer are now most in debt and unemployed due to COVID mishap of China. They have reached the epitome of debt right now. Let's see as debt matures how they will tackle it.
What I’ve noticed about bubbles is you generally know they are going to pop for quite awhile beforehand but the uncertainty of how long it will take makes the information almost useless.
Does China even need to be measured on the same scale as other economies in terms of percentage of population that's in the middle class? Does it even matter if most of the population still lives in poverty if their middle class is now possibly the largest in the world? When you have billions of people, does the same analysis truly apply?
I think the way they are coming at it is that China still has a lot of potential to grow since poverty is all up potentially. Its harder to grow the middle class. So the size does not matter as much as the potential growth
Not true that most of the population is in poverty. Even in small country towns they live decent lives on the income they make. Even if they don’t have all the modern comforts, other quality of life is still there. Here in Sydney, if I don’t bring home more than $1000 AUD a week. I can’t own a house and would be living pay to pay.
Shenzen was only a success because if it proximity to an independent Hong Kong. Other cities in China did not have that advantage and Hong Kong is no longer independent, so there is no possibility that other cities can duplicate or replicate its past growth, at the end of the Cultural Revolution after Mao's destruction of the Chinese economy. It is hard to take anyone seriously who believes the official Chinese GDP figures and then compares them to the GDP of any developed economy. You should know better by now
This is the first channel ever where I can’t watch the videos in full due to the speakers way of talking. The way he draws out EVERY end of a sentence is borderline psychological terror! I’m not sure whether it’s on purpose to sound more professor-like or whether he just got a very bad habit that he does not think about himself, but it’s driving me insane! Some of the videos have interesting topics so if I really want to watch it all I’ve started to mute the sound and just read the subtitles. 😂🤯
Hi everyone! What an amazing video. I'm looking for someone reputable and trustworthy that can provide me with investment advice and good ways to save while making high returns.
I'm curious if LGFV's were fit into the category of SOEs in this video or if that was skipped over. Also whether local debt was included as part of provincial debt. Kind of unclear. If both weren't included then the 300% debt to GDP ratio might be a significant underestimate. Good video otherwise.
I estimate the total debt without Household debt to be 57 Trillion USD adding in Household debt is 70 Trillion and it's a good estimate as anyone's including the actual CCP ones because I'm reasonably sure they don't know the full picture either, that's why they can't get to the bottom of it and sort it out, it's a financial quagmire and being belligerent as well does not help!?!
China has a very healthy economy. The collapse of the real estate market really doesn't matter because it's intentional. What people don't seem to realize, at least people that learned economics at school because self taught economists that have not been brainwashed do grasp this, is that having an inflated real estate % of GDP is not a good thing at all. The fact that a crashing housing market can cause the collapse of the US economy (not pointing fingers specifically because many countries fall into this trap, but this has happened in the past) is not a good or a normal thing. It's a symptom that the economic fundamentals are inverted and that financial and fixed assets have an incredible weight over real production.
I notice that you compared the US federal debt, which is proportionally larger than the chinese federal debt, to the entire chinese debt load? What about US state, county, business and individual debt?
This was a great rundown of the overall state of the economy of China. Back when I was in undergrad business school in 2006-2010, I wrote many papers and even my thesis on why China will not overtake the U.S. as a world power due to their inability to sustain double digit growth rates and their dishonest accounting practices. All my professors and classmates said I was wrong and didn't understand economics. Whenever I would talk to people in public about this issue they all sang the praises of the Chinese miracle from the hilltops, but now who got the last laugh. China is in even worse condition than they currently appear to be in. As the population ages and the new generation continues the fertility trend of 1.5 children per family, the problems will mount up to be unbearable. Add in the housing issues, and once the social system crumbles due to inability to sustain and the obliterated housing market, China will be in a situation like Venezuela. Mark my words, within our lifetime China will be all but forgotten and will be in an economic state akin to Venezuela.
Don’t mind those professors always do your things and believe in yourself. I’m only a high school grad my level of knowledge is God-given. It’s hard ppl understand you these days. China may go Japanized way and one major issue will be lack of youth due to one birth policy. I’m not sure they would have comprehensive immigration policy that will let skilled immigrants come to the nation like United States. I’m America, even the Latinos jumping the wall to come to here is ok for economic growth reasons.
I would take deflation over inflation any day. Economists wanting inflation is just chasing growth forever, which isn't sustainable. And the more people spend today, the less they have to spend tomorrow, so constantly chasing higher numbers is short term wishing, ignoring long term, while making people slaves to debt, only favoring banks. Inflation is really just a hidden tax to allow governments to print vast quantities of currency.
Deflation sounds great on the surface. Things getting cheaper, who wouldn't want that? But, how would you feel about your employer giving you a cost of living "pay adjustment" where your pay actually decreases? You wouldn't tolerate it. And don't forget, you still have to service your existing debt with your now lower paycheck.
I think your ideological predisposition prevents you from being able to see the full picture. For instance, you mention nominal figures instead of using PPP. Looking at nominal GDP, China has been stagnant for a while. Looking at PPP GDP, China has surpassed the US. Big difference
I’ve heard that the belt and Road, initiative loan terms are very predatory. It almost seems like they are designed with the expectation that they will be defaulted on. My understanding is that if the country defaults on the loan given, that land is Chinese property.
It is a common assertion, but it is self-contradictory nonsense. The lending is on extremely concessional terms, not predatory at all. If the money wasn't a whole lot cheaper to borrow under B&RI than it is from western banks these countries would borrow from the west instead. And if a country can't pay back the money it has borrowed from China then that is terrible news for China, for exactly the same reason that it would be terrible news for western banks (it's the old saying - "owe the bank a million dollars and can't pay then you have a problem. Owe a billion and can't pay and the bank has a problem"). From China's POV the B&RI aims to win friends and influence people, not create resentful and unstable debtors.
Kinda Though the fault in that project is the countries who participate can't really pay it xD Its also a concern in Philippines because the rates is higher than the japanese. We could pay it since we have a low foreign debt and enormous foreign cash reserves, but for smaller economies, its a trap
This guys has done a full circle. From china doom, to it’s about to collapse, to its not bad, why chinas economy is good to enviable doom again 😂. Not his fault we can all run out of content from time to time. Keep searching for more bro
Another Gordon Chang style analysis of the "coming collapse". They have problems, but really. As a friend put it, if you really believe what you are saying, you should put all your assets in shorting RMB. Tellingly, Gordon Chang didn't do that or he would have been in the poor house.
In the USA, we have exactly the same problems, only they are related to debt. The main problem is not even how to pay off the debt, but how to live later without taking on new debts. After all, most of the economy operates on cheap loans, and if they don’t exist, the economy will collapse.
You people needs to go and see China by visiting it. Beautiful country, save country for everyone, black, white or orange. No random shooting, no camps or high wall like in Gaza or US border, only The Great Wall of the past. That would be much better than getting info from a random video with no face and from someone who never visited the country anyway. There is so much RUclipsr making video of China by VISITING China 😊
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Better Help is neither better at providing help nor helpful for getting better.
Oh come on man, you’re big enough now to not have to deal with shady companies like Better Help… this is kinda sad, sorry.
@@GrockleTDI hope EE isn't telling me I have assburgers that's so obvious that I need to talk about it with a licensed therapist. Today.
BetterHelp is a $300+ per month expense not covered by any insurance that many people can't reasonably afford.
Ironic and somewhat predatory, given one of the biggest stress factors people need help coping with is their financial situation and how expensive it is just to live.
I'll never understand why economists are always surprised when a economy doesn't grow forever when no economy has ever grown consistently forever
Depends on how you parse the data. At the decadal level, the United States has been in a phase of sustained growth since the 1830's. Even with the Great Depression, 1930 GDP was higher than 1920 and 1940 was higher than 1930.
@@markbarta2369How much of that is population growth and inflation? Are people materially wealthier now than they were 30 years ago? Do more people have houses, cars, education, families, etc.
Well, forever is too much to ask, but consistent growth is not only achievable but very common. After all, we technology advances, we make new breakthroughs in different fields, everyday someone invents something that saves us money and time and productivity is ever marginally increasing. If not by a giant crisis or a world war, there's no reason to think that's not how it's going to play out in the next century or so.
@@appa609 Of course there are mitigating circumstance3s, but the USA has come closest to sustained growth.
@@appa609 if you want to know the answer google it "US real gdp per capita" or "US income per capita" ill give you a hint
The US is growing
China has built the infrastructure very extensively in a short period of time. Impressive, but in the book of economics, maintenance of this infrastructure is what will make China really sweat out its budget. Building extra lanes, ramps, buildings temporarily inflates GDP for the year, but if no ones using it, it would crumble in a few decades. The entire economic system of China is built upon this.
@umbrellastudio7481 Then why are all those high speed rail lines unprofitable and where do all the ghost cities come from and why do only a hand full of cars drive over that huge bridge near Hong Kong each day?
I have seen numerous articles and videos of china’s “infrastructure”. Storm drains in these new cities are fake. This became known widely during china’s latest massive flood. Turned out they just put a storm drain grate over a slab of concrete or just dirt.
Also that road infrastructure is at least a manageable problem. At worst you can just let the roads rot into nonexistance. But this is the country that has rush built dams like there is no tommorrow and operates the largest dam on earth. What happens when those start to fail due to poor construction and lack of maintenance?
@@LTNetjak consider the main competitors of China are nations that spend money to create bombs, I would say China would easily win out.
The infrastructure is getting used.
Very good explanation of the debt. Would love to see something on de-globalization and how much affect it is really having on China (i.e. globalization not going away but is getting realigned and re-worked in ways unlikely good for China). Sort of glossed over demographics too.
Why would you want to know how something is hurting China's economy? Is it bc you are in a hole and can't see a way out, so you only want to see someone else in the same hole? Chinese people aren't like you lot. They keep their heads down and work hard. They don't care if you're doing great, or not. They do their own thing. And that's why they are making so much progress. Maybe you lot could learn from them
Unlikely good for Germany or Japan? Yes
But China? Really? Go and watch video of youtuber visiting China, you should see China from someone who truly visiting it. Not from someone who sit in front of monitor making video from stitching stock images/videos
@@MrAdhiSuryanaThere's this thing called data
@@MrAdhiSuryana I remember watching "serpentza" ride through China, encountering it's ghost towns, checking and showcasing their shabby construction.
This is just one example, but overall the same information comes out of anyone in China who is not a government shill (which to be fair, is an extremely small amount of the people within China).
if you finished watching this video, you will know that the so-called ghost town had been filled.
Another huge problem that you did not mention is the failing banks. These banks lent a lot of money to the provinces, and also funded much of this real estate development that is never going to get paid back
State-owned banks too. Lending the people’s money.. it’s truly awful.
That's where alot of the lending in that in debt is from. Especially the average worker
Many workers stopped paying on mortgages for the non-existent homes they were fooled into buying.
Using loans as collateral for a larger loan to buy shares or start a project securing investment from other people taking out loans. Don't forget- no body owns anything in China. It's all owned by the government. Mortgages for a rental property are insane and it's commercial property, too!
China's debts are almost all internal, which puts the issue within their control. They can sort it out among themselves.
The issue I'm concerned about the most is whether China, specifically the provincial governments, are actually being truthful in their reported debts. Their reported incurred debts are a massive amount already. Even if they're only hiding, on average, 10-15% of their debts through number fudging, that's an extremely significant amount that makes an already shaky situation look even more unstable. That's not even to mention that they could be hiding a much more significant amount of debt, hoping that they can string the people and National government along long enough that the economic growth will perpetuate their Ponzi-scheme like cycle of selling land to cover their debts, only to incur more debt and need to sell more land.
What????? You think the Chicoms would lie?
The debt number used for provincial debt was a 3rd party estimate based on Goldman-Sachs, not the state-reported debt. It can be wrong, but when they're basically saying that their debt load is >10x that of the US states, it's an estimate, not a blind acceptance of state-reported numbers.
(I personally think they're in the right ballpark with this particular number. My concern would be the other side of the ratio: GDP may be lower than reported. Basically it feels that A LOT of systemic fudging has been going and it's all been going on in the same direction - higher GDP numbers and lower debt numbers - of which state-reported debt is one of them, so likely the scale of the problem is concerning. The fact that China has had this phenomenal growth for 40 years is actually a bad sign as it means they've been able compound this systemic failure for almost 30 years.)
China's debts are almost all internal, so it matters little to you whether they're accurate. They can sort it out among themselves.
@@tychay "The fact that China has had this phenomenal growth for 40 years is actually a bad sign as it means they've been able compound this systemic failure for almost 30 years" - no it doesn't. China's growth is only 'phenomenal' in terms of it being as large an economy as it is. Other countries have also had decades of rapid growth of a similar nature.
@@tychay Which is going to make this the mother of all collapses
"Optimistic recklessness" is a fine synonym for "corruption." 😂😂😂
Don’t attribute to malice that which can be adequately be explained by incompetence.
Or Greed
"Optimistic recklessness" is greed, best exemplified by the financial industry in the States. Worse, in the USA its greed for the collective few. But in order for the CCP to get their mandate of heaven they need to be subservient to the nation collective. So, the common Jack and Jill will fare better and have better lives and livelihoods in China than in the States. If you visited both nations, you'll get it
Not even close
While actual, definition-consistent corruption does appear common in China, it's hard to tell from a western perspective how much of that is real and how much is a tool for political infighting. The evidence we have wouldn't really amount to a substantial financial drain on the overall economy - at least in terms of bribery, embezzlement, or cronyism - though tofu dreg projects are certainly a major contributor because they cost the nation way more than anyone is stealing.
But all that is still discounting the indirect impact: dishonest leadership at all levels reporting and aggregating bad data which then informs bad policy decisions. I've no doubt that will be the root of China's eventual undoing.
Surprised you didn’t mention what many consider one of the worst parts of deflation, is when it’s combined with high debt. Since a yuan is worth more in the future, their debt load actually increases in real terms each year and can either trap them in never paying it off or just be a bigger and bigger portion of their income each year.
that's why governments across the world fear deflation like the plague!
lower interest rates should compensate for that though
@@goldie6634 The Fed has entered the chat. "Higher for longer".
It also means they can use quantitative easing without having to worry about the inflation it causes - in fact inflation would be a positive affect in this case. Beijing isn't in much debt, in fact it's the worlds' largest creditor and asset holder, so they can afford it.
I was also thinking about the debt-deflation problem during the video. It criples the country, the companies, the citizens.
Great to meet you today Michael - and awesome video! Keep it up bro! Great to see your ongoing success ✌️
It’s almost like there is a finite amount of end users in a population and populations can’t exponentially grow in perpetuity.
To be fair to China, most of the population does not earn nearly as much as other first world countries, so theoretically the job growth would have continued to create more end consumers. And that was a theory that did not hold up.
@@danielgrezda3339 agree there, i’m more referring to the infrastructure can only be used by the amount of people within the population and when your population is shrinking like China, investing in continued infrastructure growth (hence ghost cities, low usage rail ways, etc) isn’t going to derive you anymore benefit because there just isn’t anyone to use it.
It actually can grow for longer
The problem is O N E C H I L D P O L I C Y
Moreover, the demographics of China are going to cause further problems. Their birthrate is woefully insufficient to maintain the current level of population and the Chicoms don't allow immigration. This is going to be the mother of all collapses. I'm hoarding popcorn to watch. It's going to cause problems with the world but it will weaken China significantly. The Chicoms are all about superficial appearances. NOTHING is built to last. I don't think their military materiel is an exception.
Especially when women wont have kids because they are focusing on their careers and hypergamy..
Ive watched a video every year about chinas economy on the brink of collapse at least once every year for the past 10 years. This fulfils the 2023 quota, onto 2024!
It's a problem when you don't know all the information. Like if you see a car driving and u see a wall in front of it you know it will crash. If you do not know it's speed, or acceleration/deceleration. You will not know when it will hit the wall. But you watch and see the car getting closer and closer.
When will the car hit the wall ? Tomorrow? Next week ? Next year ?
Now imagine the wall is invisible. But you know it's there. And still know nothing about the car.
The car could even be invisible and all you got is what you can hear.
This is what it's like trying to predict china's economic downfall. We know it's coming. And all signs say it's near. But the amount of unknowns are large due to doctored statistics provided by the country.
@@allliquid6320 if you say it's doctored, then it could possibly mean that this perception of china about to collapse is "doctored' as well when in reality it's not.
The bubble was already there 10+ years ago, everybody knew, but yet nobody fixed it, just inflating it from big to huge. Further delay the pop will just make it even more painful.
Just another year or two and the CCP will get guns out in people's backs and make them spend their savings on more crappy condo units in order to keep the bubble going before it finally collapses.
Obviously one year it will happen for real, all strongly growing economies eventually stopped doing so after all. The question as always is, when? How far do they get before facing substantial difficulties, why those difficulties? Can one predict it ahead of time?
So in that sense, there probably are a few out there making the right call on what will cause China major issues. And indeed, maybe this one is perhaps right and the sheer scale of current debt might become like heavy weights dragging the immediate economic prospects of China down. Or maybe they'll find a way out of this issue as well.
We will have to see as the years go by I guess.
Every year there is a new story about how China will crumble soon. Then the next year they say, "wait! this time is different"
westerners projecting about their collapse
100%
"when people are fearful, be greedy, when people are greedy, be fearful " it's a good mantra if you're already rich
Thank you for the actually good rundown on why deflation can cripple economies used to inflationary policy. The idea that Joe Consumer is smart enough to go "wow due to inflationary policy, the value of my currency is decreasing over time, so I should spend my earnings now" is ridiculous. "Wow, I'm getting a raise every year! I should be good to spend this now" makes a lot more sense.
Finally someone said this.
Yes deflation is horrible. People complain about inflation but they have no idea the alternative is way, way worse. The best case scenario is small inflation (2%-3% inflation) every year.
You are assuming that salaries usually keep up with inflation... oh boy, i have news for you.
@@accordblazewhat's good about your money/savings losing purchasing power at 2/3% annually? What makes this scenario the best?
@@daniloacc92 its still better than a deflation scenario. Google up on it.
"Please China, collapse, I've been making the same prediction for 40 years now..."
China has been collapsing since the 2015.
😂😂at this rate they are just coping like this
You know a rocket a going up, if it doesn't have enough fuel to Espace gravity, will eventually come down. China is that rocket trying to escape the gravity aka middle class trap. Everyone knows it doesn't have enough fuel and burning at a ridiculous rate, it's only a matter of time
40 years ago China was third world country, what collapse are you talking about?
@@aerodynamism5438 people in your country doesn’t like sarcasm?
Also an important factor is the ratio of debt in foreign currency would be nice to explore this aspect as well
Nearly the entirety of the debt is in Yuan
I was kinda mad when you brought debt to GDP as I was sure you'd ignore other types of debt, but you didn't, even included corporate, great job 👍
Except he didn't calculate it for the USA or any other country, lol.
China's collaspe was an yearly event but now it has become a monthly update. 😅
its almost as if the west needs something to distract from whats coming. I can tell you now the chinese media don't spend every waking hour talking about how the west is in economic decline, even though the west absolutely is.
It's happening now. Demographic collapse is a very, very bad thing when you overbuilt. I talk to Chinese moving to Dubai. Things are bad in China. Very bad.
A nation's collapse happens very slowly, not overnight.
so what does very bad thing mean? all i hear is just bad end and collapse, but what does it mean or look like? if you are saying that the chinese are going to starve to death, i dont see that happening. if you are saying they are going to become homeless, i also do not see that happening. after all money is just a representation of commodity, and china have a lot of stuff.@@bernardkoppes4401
@@bernardkoppes4401中国又崩溃了，你好高兴啊😂
The fact that we get free videos from Economics Explained on RUclips is priceless, keeping the education and knowledge alive. 🙏🙏🙏
@@olefella7561 Or it's just a mutually beneficial byproduct of capitalism?
you did great with this one, keep doing it!
I just wanted to take a moment to say how amazing your video was! I was really impressed with the quality of the footage, the editing, and the overall presentation. You did a great job of explaining the topic in a clear and concise way, and I learned a lot from watching your video.
;)
I wonder how accurate those chinese statistics about gdp are.
As an Indian I know how easy is to manipulate numbers. And Chinese are much more efficient in most of the things compared to Indians :)
Mostly made up
Cope
Probably very exaggerated. I once read a claim that in reality it's only 40% of their reported figures. Problem is incentive: Everybody in china is incentivized to report steadily rising numbers.
A lot of those data is from IMF a US based NGO and US investment companies.
It’s funny how the issue of rezoning farmland to urban and then selling it as a lease for urban development and that the whole process makes up a large percentage of local budgets… is omitted.
I have read somewhere recently that China has lost almost half of its arable land in the last couple decades. Scary stuff. Water is all poison too.
I appreciate the video on this subject. Can you provide your research sources?
I really like your videos and have watched them almost from when you started this channel. I understand that you need sponsors and when you’ve got a small channel, you simply can’t be that picky. But you’re big now and you don’t have to put up with morally criminal organizations like Better Help. Come one man, we wanna be proud on ya!
What's the go with Better Help?
Watch this video: ruclips.net/video/kx07d2FpZT4/видео.htmlsi=oybJecp8xcD3QLDZ
@@DuelyusSeazer and @pa_2600 RUclips punishes posting links, but the ftc dot gov website has an article you can google (as always on google, scroll past the sponsored links):
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@@DuelyusSeazer they came under fire a couple of years ago when it turned out a tonne of their "trained mental health professionals" were completely untrained amateurs with no qualifications at all, and in many cases not much sense of professionalism. Betterhelp wouldn't even refund people who's "therapists" didn't turn up to sessions because they claimed they were just acting as a marketplace rather than actual selling the product themselves.
@Pentagathusosaurus Good to know. Thanks alot. I'm a psych student so it saddens me to hear people financially exploit people with mental health problems
For some reason economists tend to forget one of the most important factors determining economic growth, demographics. A big part of China's economic growth was caused by a what is referred to as a demographic dividend. This occurs when a larger than normal cohort reaches their prime years of productivity. China had a baby boom from 1963 to around 1970, which gave them a large and highly productive workforce in the 1990s and 2000s, however those people are now reaching the end of their working lives. This would not be a problem except that the following generations are smaller than the one now reaching retirement age. This means that not only is China's population now decreasing, it's workforce is decreasing even faster. With a decreasing workforce the only way to increase GDP is to improve productivity, but that requires investment ether through borrowing, where China is close to maxed out, or through foreign investment, which current international relations and China's investor unfriendly government make unlikely. This will inevitably lead to very slow growth, likely negative growth when inflation is accounted for.
Anyone would could have done a modest amount of research and realized it was a massive ponzi scheme, 20 years ago. Conservatives were just too ignorant about China and were too lazy to learn the details that actually mattered. Liberals were high on the fantasy of a socialist economy(yes an economy with a market heavily controlled by the state is exactly the end game of "democratic socialist". Reality is there were plenty of people who knew the whole thing was nothing but a scam, but they were effectively silenced by Liberals. Liberals love pushing economic fantasies, it's still an ongoing problem with our immigration policies.
It's also cultural. The same people that you're speaking are the ones who work in factories etc. Younger generation all go to university now and with the advent of social media, they don't want do such jobs which made China do so well in the first place. It's all a mess in China gg
They can import foreign workers. But they need to crack down on those fake food many foreigners detest.
@@ronnelacido1711 Smaller counties can bring in foreign workers to make up for a shortage, but due to its size that would be very difficult for China.
@@dixonhill1108 '...a market heavily controlled by the state is exactly the end game of "democratic socialist".' - That seems to be contradicted by the actions of all western nations. No mater how Liberal none of them have taken any steps gain more direct control over their economies, and with the exception of environmental regulations there have been no attempts at greater indirect control.
As for immigration, most western nations have the same demographic problem China does, a declining population with a work force that is in even greater decline. Ideally steps should have been taken 30 years ago to increase birthrates, but that was not done. So now it is either accept very slow economic growth, or maintain the workforce via immigration.
I remember visiting China in 2014 and learning about the real estate bubble. I’m surprised it took so long for it to pop.
The bubble was supposed to pop at 2015, but the government said to the god of economy "not today", they blown more air into a bubble, made the pop unbearable to anyoneone in China. Good job.
You should be more surprised it's still growing in other places.
@@vlhc4642 Honestly the US/EU bubb1e is worse than China
If you're concerned about the real estate bubble in China, don't look about what is currently going on in the USA right now, not to mention what happened in 2008
@@zarategabethe US has historically low vacancy rates at the moment. China has ghost cities. The situations are nearly opposite.
There's a saying in the stock market something like 'the market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent', basically meaning "don't bet against a doomed company because it's hard to predict *when* it will die". I think the same applies to China. It's built on a rotten foundation and I think a major economic collapse is inevitable... but it's hard to say when, because being a totalitarian dictatorship means the thing that China is best at is hiding reality for as long as possible. We can have bad news after bad news, and it's impossible to predict which straw will be the one to break the camel's back.
While there are fundamental flaws with the way how all modern economies work. People have been calling for china's collapse for Literally 30+ years. What does a collapse even look like?
Agree, existentialism would question of when the emperor had no clothes, when he put nothing on or when the child acknowledged it?
Well said and spot on. I would only add that while the specific timing is nearly impossible to predict, the noose the CCP has put around the neck of the Chinese economy can no longer be removed. It is only a matter of time for China. Its entire economy is based on exports and yet, China lashes out at the world and destroys any goodwill it created during the past few decades. China is extremely poorly managed and this will be revealed with time. The more difficult questions are will Xi survive this and will the CCP survive this?
There is also a saying that everyone dies in the long run, including nations. If you wait long enough, say 10k years, chances are the world map will look very different.
Realistically, things in China are only going to get worse from here. While the housing crisis is an insane issue, their biggest issue is probably their aging population, which is made worse by a collapsing economy and unemployment rates.
China is so incredibly fucked.
really great video, have not heard the debt situation explained that clearly before
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Re deflation: another issues with it is that if prices are dropping there is an incentive to make purchases as late as possible to get the best price possible. The end consumer can gain by deferring basically anything they can put off till later. And this is also true at every stage of the logistics pipeline where stockpiles, even of durable goods, lose value relative to cash holdings. This means that (at least temporarily) demand for production can be lower than even depressed consumption rates as stockpiles may intentionally be allowed to run down.
Good points.
easiest solution to deflation? Run the money printers and just bail out debtors
@@hughmungus2760 easy != equal or equitable. -- Bailing out debtors helps them at the expense of people who don't have debts. That might encourage people to go even more into debt.Bailing out debtors helps them at the expense of people who don't have debts. That might encourage people to go even more into debt.
What might actually work better would be for the state (in the US, the Fed) to offer low rate loans for refinancing of (only?) existing debts. At a minimum, that moves the interest payment costs in a good direction relative to GDP. But I suspect even that just pushes things down the road if you can't resolve the foundational issues that created the problems in the first place.
Has any country suffered an economic catastrophe due to deflation? Everyone always says its bad but has it ever happened? We have Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Germany, and the US to show that inflation is bad, but has deflation every been proven to be bad? Humans cant stop spending because they will starve to death. For the same reason humans dont perceive inflation until many years later, they wont see deflation either.
I like how today anyone can make a RUclips video about any topic and say whatever they want, provide ZERO SOURCES for their claims, no bibliography whatsoever, no way for the viewers to corroborate the claims made in the video... and still we call this 'information'. Technology is awesome.
which part of the video do you find questionable?
@@thomasd4738 "questionable"? I question everything. So should you. Or do you generally take whatever people say as absolute truth? Citing sources is an absolute necessity, especially in videos like this.
@@pinkace Well that's an admirable instinct, but not necessary in my case, as I live in China and am very close to the topic. No I haven't checked the numbers, which in many cases are so consistently falsified as to be unknowable, but anyone who knows anything about China's economy is aware that the country is extremely deep in debt for precisely the reasons the video says.
@@thomasd4738China Beige Book sums up everything you need to know about China.
@@thomasd4738really? Then where u live in china and what kind of job are you in? and what's your education? If you really know China economy then why they are still standing after being bombarded by "China will fail" for more a decade in internet?
I lived in Shenzhen while it was expanding. It was amazing. I miss it a lot.
Shenzhen is definitely still expanding you can count on that
Economists always "should have known better"; but somehow they never do.
In this case, the CCP has completely ruled out micro economics that are absent in state planners like themselves. What we are seeing is macro economics based mostly in theory. "Build it and they will come' has to be built by an entrepreneur in a micro model to be successful. They built it and what they got is speculators.
About the ghost cities that eventually get filled. with current building standards and cutting corners that are getting worst as construction companies' debts grows, by the time those cities get filled the cost of maintenance and repairs on those buildings would already be unsustainable.
The maintenance alone will bury them in debt.
is this fact or just assuming? is this all of the housing in china?
The ghost cities won't ever get filled. There's too much over capacity, and the population is shrinking - and it's going to keep shrinking.
they arnt going to get filled. china has more supply than demand in housing and the future generations are getting smaller and smaller in size.
There's also the estimated 300m pensioners by the end of this decade. Guess who pays for pensions? Not the central government.
Major problem of china is the whole growth story was dependent on infrastructure it should be good till some time but excess can cause trouble
Spending money you don't have on things you don't need is a Very Bad Idea at any scale, be it personal or national.
The US precipitated the "Global Financial Crisis" with their real estate excess, and they have continued to grow.
Can you please make a video explaining Albanian economy? I am from there and I have no clue how that country makes any money and the prices of good and real estate is through the roof. It’s truly a puzzling case to say the least!
Its time to put Albania on the economics explained leaderboard!
Real estate prices all around the world don't make sense. Normal people/ middle class are not able to afford them and can just look at big companies buying and selling them and say wow such a large transaction
I hate all these videos trying to convince people that China’s economy is full of problems while in reality China just keps growing and growing.
You could have said the same of the US in 2007 lol
Deflation can be so much worse than inflation. If you're effectively giving money away by making purchases now instead of waiting as long as possible, then everyone from consumers to companies are incentivized to not purchase, or wait as long as possible to purchase. This can grind the economy to a halt. Added to this, all debt and repayments get worse when deflation increases the dollar value of your debt and repayments more and more every month, possibly making some debt unassailable. The deflation might be the scariest villain on the list, even if it's just a symptom of other illnesses, because it's what can kill the patient the fastest.
This is when central banks generally start printing money.
@@Pushing_Pixelsthis is what most people believe. "Printing money" is the only job the central bank has. It does it all the time when money is demanded.
Deflation means: nobody wants this money.
@@ThomasVWorm Deflation means people are hoarding money. Printing money is inflationary. It offsets deflation and, if used correctly, can also provide other benefits to the economy. The trick is using the money well and knowing when to stop.
@@Pushing_Pixels I don't see why "printing money" should be inflationary, when banks print money all the time.
The money, which is hoarded in a deflation needs to "printed" too. Without there is nothing, which can be hoarded.
And in order to "print money" banks do need people asking for a loan. Without they will not "print money" nor will the central bank.
But why should people, who already do hoard money, ask for loans? And even if somebody loans money, why should the hoarder stop hoarding it? And when the hoarders hold back the money, how do those, who got the loans, repay them? And when they fail, why should anybody else ask for loans, which make banks and the central bank "print money"?
Debtors are those, who do print money, not banks.
@Joe-qm4yv but it is wrong. It cannot be seen in the data in the way, that there is a cause and effect relationship between the amount of money being around and inflation.
The reason is simple: an economy is much more complex than the simplistic market model of the economists.
EE: "make another episode about the economy without mentioning the demographic changes challenge"
I think deflation can be good for economy where technology is lowering costs for making goods and services and remaining price which means China will grow on margins and if government will support entrepreneurs to decrease price. I believe it could increase productivity for China's unequal demographic of population.
Exactly, meanwhile we're having inflation in the West unprecedented since the 1970s and average people are struggling to get by. But yeah, deflation is the problem.
China, unlike Japan, which happened similar problems 40 yrs ago, might end up being a lot worse. First, China has virtually no government provided welfare projects and will likely not have any due to its political environment. That leads to excessive household saving just in case something bad was to happen. Secondly, the elite class has very little trust in government, the first thing they do when they get rich is to find a loophole in China’s foreign exchange regulations and move their money abroad. And corporate leaders had been using their companies’ foreign investments as a way to exploit the loopholes, thus a lot of Chinese invested assets abroad are not profitable, most of them are shell corporations. Thirdly, the self conflicting ideology is starting to lose control. CCP self claims to be communist but they created one of largest wealth gap and provide virtually no social security, so they resort to nationalism. But this requires it to took a hard line approach on Taiwan, which in return worsens economy. Last, China’s demographic collapse will be the worse modern history, their birth rate effectively halved in less than a decade. And in 10 to 15 yrs, their largest population bulge will face retirement, over 200m people will be out of work force. This will effectively strangle China’s economy for the next century.
Soylent Green is People!
Return to the ancient Chinese tradition of mass cannibalism.
I wish I was only joking with this guess.
@@Kyryyn_Lyyhnot needed. Today you can replace the workforce with robots. And China has got all it needs to do it. And it still has people being unemployed.
cant agree more as a chinese
You can't predict a time span of 80 years. China might as well take over the world by 2100.
don't worry about China. Their debt to gdp is still way, way lower than the US and many other Western nations. Worry about yourselves. The population bulge problem is a problem faced by ALL Western nations. And literally everything in your comment can be replaced with "American" and it would still make complete sense. As I said, worry about yourselves.
Also factor the fact the CCP will never provid you with accurate economic data unless it will show China in good terms. This is a well known fact and their strict covid policy have devastated their economy for good but would never admit that they failed.
You should check out China Beige Book.
Would love to see a video of yours on Brazil's defying economic growth projections for the last couple of years. From an initially projected 1.7% growth this year to an actual 3.1% growth, econometrics are having a hard time explaining the economy of Brazil.
It’s because they don’t understand the impact of rate rises and use monetarist assumptions - rate rises increase interest income as well - when you jack up rates peoples bank balances rise supporting demand. The non-government sector is a net saver of financial assets, which means the overall effect of a rate rise is more likely stimulatory rather than contractionary. The historical tendency of businesses to experience massive crippling cost of debt crises in the face of rapid rate rises (like in 1980, mid 2000s, or early 90s) isn’t happening because businesses are significantly deleveraged, and are able to pass on cost increases to consumers because of the market power they were shown to have in the early stages of the Ukraine war inflationary crisis - which is why a credit crisis hasnt emerged yet
It used to take one year for Brazil to export $1bn to China and now it takes 60hrs. I fear for Brazil if China collapses as this video predicts. Fortunately, this is unlikely to happen. Still we are all connected.
@@tannhaeuserx464 I think Brazil has a varied enough economy so that it wouldn't collapse alongside china. Also, Brazil has a great known how in engineering and companies like Embraer and WEG are increasing its markets abroad. Embraer latest military plane, the C-390, is taking market segment away from Lockheed Martin's C-130. And WEG is a electric motor company which probably has the best shares of any Brazilian company, as they report constant growth for a long time now. They even partnered with SpaceX for an oxygen production facility, and hopefully they will become more prevalent in the electric car motor market as well.
@@tannhaeuserx464 Well, luckily capitalism, while it didn't cause China's problems can save Brazil from its potential future problems. If they have a surplus of goods and need a market, people will buy on the cheap.
China is screwed, let's not pretend otherwise. The rest of the world will simply adjust as it always has.
Is 3.1% considered good for a developing country like Brazil?
Chna may be in an eternal recession like Japan has. But Japan has friends like the US it can rely on. China is more aggressive and doesn't want to rely on anyone for anything. But that is not realistic for China. China may never be able to escape the middle income trap.
That same US that backstabbed their "friend" in the 80s and paved the way for Japan's lost decade in red carpet? 😂
@@seashellbeesaveres7951+$0.50
@@seashellbeesaveres7951India-Mexico-Vietnam-Indoneia will takeover huge manufacturing from China in the next decades. It's already happening as we speak Apple, Samsung, Panasonic, Daikin, Suzuki, Foxconn, LG all shifting outside of China.
China's forced to compete in the high-tech sector.
But, losing to ASML, TSMC, Samsung, Tokyo Electron, NVIDIA....also Canon Nanoimprinting from Japan just gave the West another Semiconductor Edge.
BYD & CATL are China' last hope. but, it looks like EU/US/JP will tariff Chinese EVs due to dumping allegations.
Toyota/Panasonic Solid State Battery with IDEMITSU & LG/SAMSUNG Solid State Batteries will be the preferred Battery choice in the long term in developed countries.
So, BYD & CATL will face huge competition in a couple years to secure battery customers.
@@seashellbeesaveres7951 That same US who is Japan's friend and ally. Things change for democratic countries. Nothing will change for China and you're witnessing it in spectacular fashion. Get used to it buddy, it's going to get worse for them. Japan may have floundered but they are thriving now and will regain their place eventually to being the second biggest economy on the globe.
@@Fleshox19-uz3qtlike how😂😂😂😂in your dreams???😂😂😂😂
Can China's economy finally colapse? It's been almost 10 years since this started and I'm growing tired of waiting.
@marcoantoniochangkeeanselm2494 😂😂 their economy won’t collapse it’s an american fantasy
China's growth rate fell by 50% in 10 years. So it is collapsing.
@@GowthamNatarajanAIeven if you still insist that China growth is falling by 50% for 100 year ,it won't go to negative. unlike Europe rn.
I’ve heard absolutely terrible things about “Better Health” and it’s disappointing they paid you off, morally there’s no reason to support such a money hungry company taking advantage of, then disregarding mental health.
If I was a professor grading this report/research, I would have to give it a C-minus. Very superficial report.
One of the main problems with using GDP as it stands, is that it includes government spending. Government has nothing that it doesn't first Take from the present or the future. Governments actions also distort market signal information, resulting in malinvestment that is one of the factors in the boom bust business cycle.
Another fantastically produced and massively informative piece. Appreciated! (and terrified)
Does anybody in China live in individual homes? All you see is apartment blocks that go on forever.
Your white
China spent the last few decades playing catch up, and I think it was the correct policy.
It only seems to have recently occurred to them that they're in a new phase, and that it's no longer just a question of continuous construction and GDP growth.
I'm not someone with any sort of grasp on economics, so please don't ask me to explain further than that.
They never had a micro economics phase and authoritarian govts like the CCP are never going to allow the entrepreneur to outshine their macro models.
It's correct, economies have a catching up growth stage and cutting edge stage.
In catching up stage, they have no much need for innovation, as they rely on tech from advanced countries, its the place where most global south and some asian countries are like India.
During this stage there is rapid economic growth. Expect higher economic growth rates from them.
After that, the cutting edge stage, where innovation drives economic growth, I think China is simply transitioning to this stage, so expect more innovation from China. Developed countries, The West , US, Japan, S Korea, etc, are in this stage, the major driver for economic growth is Innovation.
They're very aware of where they're at.
@@markmuriithi You're right, but Japan failed this stage and hence their collapse.
Thx for the video!
This channel is literally so good.
As opposed to being figuratively good?
@@SKa-tt9nm more opposed to being theoretically good but falling short 🙃
China sees economy grow 4.9% in third quarter, beating expectations.
so they say, so they always say, but the reality is no one knows on any level because all the aggregate numbers are made up...
Really concrete and concise content! Great and thx!
China invested in infrastructure to keep people artificially employed. Because of that, what was built often wasn't needed and of extremely poor quality which is coming home to roost with infrastructure falling apart after a few years or it having taken the money and never actually built it (i.e. Drains that don't lead anywhere or or just laid on the ground).
Unlike other countries the CCP never built up the internal, value-add economy, instead using its people as simply eyes and fingers to assemble products built with foreign capital, materials, equipment, technology and expertise to be shipped to foreign markets, protected by foreign warships while antagonizing their local neighbors and those whom they are dependent on for all those fore-amentioned inputs and markets.
Now they're getting everything they demanded and discovering they're not a superpower by any stretch of the imagination without globalization to back them up. Ugly times ahead.
No value-add in China? Lol. The literally lead in EVs, telecommunications, AI and can now make 7nm chips ffs you're living in dreamland
I have been hearing the fall of Chinese economy for the last years.
China will fall some day. It already did in the past. After more than 2000 years. So why shouldn't it happen again? So we will have to live with such predictions for the next thousands of years.
Always interesting, thank you.
This is a great and insightful video but I feel kinda dizzy with all the camera pan cut
Did he just say that the United States debt is nothing to worry about?
The issue with China's reduction in growth is that it starts out with the engine of the Chinese economy.
That "engine" is made up of exports and consumer spending.
If you remove any part of the engine the vehicle will keep on rolling, but eventually slow to a halt.
Most of China's GDP is fueled by exports and consumer spending.
So if consumers stop taking loans and stop buying consumer products you remove the foundation.
Same goes if you remove exports.
This channel is a perfect example of a content creator tapping into the western paranoia machine and taking advantage of it. If you scroll through the titles/topics of the videos here and they are almost exclusively geared towards the western conservative/right leaning individuals. Claiming China and Russia are boogeymen, how Israel is a “miracle” and how India will be “bigger than China” - is this a joke? LOL.
Domestically he only discusses California and Detroit, but won’t discuss Arkansas or Mississippi. 😂
The cherry on top is that arguments he makes in each of his videos is based solely on a number of certain factors COMING TRUE (if they ever do). RUclips is littered with lazy content like this - flashy titles with lazy arguments.
😂
I’m glad you’ve noticed this too. But he knows his audience doesn’t want truth just cope
I’m glad you’ve noticed this too. But he knows his audience doesn’t want truth just cope
You can try to argue, or keep trash talking due to cognitive dissonance.
FYI: THe country of Taiwan is not part of CCPChina.
Have a nice day.
It's some kind of weird superposition of a country. Depending on the time the U.S. government looks at it, it is either independent or part of "one China." Not my personal view. Just an observation of the manipulative political machinery working.
@@MayankTrivedi2 Another option: The world and the PRC recognize that the ROC is a separate nation that does wish to live under communism and everyone lives in peace and respects each other.
@@noname-xo1btThe US never officially considers the ROC independent. They're very careful to avoid that. All thir dealings with them actually treat them like a Chinese province officially
Could you please but a list of your sources in your videos. Thanks and I enjoy watching your content.
Look for em yourself
This is a great video. Is it possible to make a similar video about Sweden? They also have a high household debt and also the municipalities borrow like crazy
Ive been hearing about Chinas economic collapse for almost a decade now and nothing ever happens.
china wont collapse dude , but its growth rate have and further decrease a lot .
China would have collapsed but somehow they managed to fool consumers by getting them to buy real estate.
Using that money for more real estate projects to make GDP grow higher.
But consumer are now most in debt and unemployed due to COVID mishap of China.
They have reached the epitome of debt right now.
Let's see as debt matures how they will tackle it.
What I’ve noticed about bubbles is you generally know they are going to pop for quite awhile beforehand but the uncertainty of how long it will take makes the information almost useless.
Does China even need to be measured on the same scale as other economies in terms of percentage of population that's in the middle class? Does it even matter if most of the population still lives in poverty if their middle class is now possibly the largest in the world? When you have billions of people, does the same analysis truly apply?
I think the way they are coming at it is that China still has a lot of potential to grow since poverty is all up potentially. Its harder to grow the middle class. So the size does not matter as much as the potential growth
Not true that most of the population is in poverty. Even in small country towns they live decent lives on the income they make. Even if they don’t have all the modern comforts, other quality of life is still there. Here in Sydney, if I don’t bring home more than $1000 AUD a week. I can’t own a house and would be living pay to pay.
@@user-vl3ip7ed9u Li Keqiang, the late former Premier of China, said differently.
Please do a video on China corruption, because all these numbers don't make sense without corruption.
they talked about it a lot in the video. he even showed clips of lies
Since 2012, 4.089 million people involved in corruption have been investigated and dealt with.
Inflation is not prices rising… increasing money supply is inflation, the prices rising are a symptom of increasing money supply
US perspective presented here is shallow and intelectually disappointing, yet, make some people feel better to numb their own jealousy
100%
Shenzen was only a success because if it proximity to an independent Hong Kong. Other cities in China did not have that advantage and Hong Kong is no longer independent, so there is no possibility that other cities can duplicate or replicate its past growth, at the end of the Cultural Revolution after Mao's destruction of the Chinese economy. It is hard to take anyone seriously who believes the official Chinese GDP figures and then compares them to the GDP of any developed economy. You should know better by now
This implies tht Shenzen is the only success which is false
This is the first channel ever where I can’t watch the videos in full due to the speakers way of talking. The way he draws out EVERY end of a sentence is borderline psychological terror! I’m not sure whether it’s on purpose to sound more professor-like or whether he just got a very bad habit that he does not think about himself, but it’s driving me insane! Some of the videos have interesting topics so if I really want to watch it all I’ve started to mute the sound and just read the subtitles. 😂🤯
Literally the first one Evaaahh... AI would have been bettaaah
Hi everyone! What an amazing video. I'm looking for someone reputable and trustworthy that can provide me with investment advice and good ways to save while making high returns.
meanwhile the economy in the us and europe
All i am saying is that the West has been calling the fall of China way before i was even born. Here, china is, thriving still.
We all know how they work.😅
Mon, Wed, Fri - China collapsing.
Tues, Thu, Sat - China threatening.
Sunday - day off.
I'm curious if LGFV's were fit into the category of SOEs in this video or if that was skipped over. Also whether local debt was included as part of provincial debt. Kind of unclear. If both weren't included then the 300% debt to GDP ratio might be a significant underestimate. Good video otherwise.
I estimate the total debt without Household debt to be 57 Trillion USD adding in Household debt is 70 Trillion and it's a good estimate as anyone's including the actual CCP ones because I'm reasonably sure they don't know the full picture either, that's why they can't get to the bottom of it and sort it out, it's a financial quagmire and being belligerent as well does not help!?!
@@thomasherrin6798 Sounds about right to me. Truly staggering numbers though.
8:05 The population drop wasn't from a war, but a famine.
It has been a few decades now that Nuclear Fusion is just 50 years away
I feel that this video topic is the economic's version of that
20 years ago, some people said that the Chinese economy was about to collapse，but it seems that China did not follow their script🤣🤣
Completely irrelevant, but these frame-transitions your editor used are SO COOL.
Oh look. Another RUclips video telling me how China’s economy is collapsing….😂
Thank you for the laugh.
China has a very healthy economy. The collapse of the real estate market really doesn't matter because it's intentional. What people don't seem to realize, at least people that learned economics at school because self taught economists that have not been brainwashed do grasp this, is that having an inflated real estate % of GDP is not a good thing at all. The fact that a crashing housing market can cause the collapse of the US economy (not pointing fingers specifically because many countries fall into this trap, but this has happened in the past) is not a good or a normal thing. It's a symptom that the economic fundamentals are inverted and that financial and fixed assets have an incredible weight over real production.
That spinning transition effect is motion-sickness inducing.
I notice that you compared the US federal debt, which is proportionally larger than the chinese federal debt, to the entire chinese debt load? What about US state, county, business and individual debt?
No man why would he make a fair comparison? China is going to collapse bro not the west
I don't understand this. Everyone says China's economy is crumbling but isn't it still growing? I thought it grew past expectations this quarter?
This video is filled with misinformation. The creator seems to be ignorant as pertains to the subject of economics
This was a great rundown of the overall state of the economy of China. Back when I was in undergrad business school in 2006-2010, I wrote many papers and even my thesis on why China will not overtake the U.S. as a world power due to their inability to sustain double digit growth rates and their dishonest accounting practices. All my professors and classmates said I was wrong and didn't understand economics. Whenever I would talk to people in public about this issue they all sang the praises of the Chinese miracle from the hilltops, but now who got the last laugh.
China is in even worse condition than they currently appear to be in. As the population ages and the new generation continues the fertility trend of 1.5 children per family, the problems will mount up to be unbearable. Add in the housing issues, and once the social system crumbles due to inability to sustain and the obliterated housing market, China will be in a situation like Venezuela. Mark my words, within our lifetime China will be all but forgotten and will be in an economic state akin to Venezuela.
Let’s hope they don’t launch military attacks before that happens.
Only in the dreams of a state department 😂
Don’t mind those professors always do your things and believe in yourself. I’m only a high school grad my level of knowledge is God-given. It’s hard ppl understand you these days. China may go Japanized way and one major issue will be lack of youth due to one birth policy. I’m not sure they would have comprehensive immigration policy that will let skilled immigrants come to the nation like United States. I’m America, even the Latinos jumping the wall to come to here is ok for economic growth reasons.
China already overtook America in PPP GDP since 2014. This metric is far more accurate of economic power than nominal GDP
I used to think Detroit as a ghost city but now I learned they are in China.
I've been seeing videos about China crumbling economy for a decade now, never happens, 😂😂😂
I would take deflation over inflation any day. Economists wanting inflation is just chasing growth forever, which isn't sustainable. And the more people spend today, the less they have to spend tomorrow, so constantly chasing higher numbers is short term wishing, ignoring long term, while making people slaves to debt, only favoring banks. Inflation is really just a hidden tax to allow governments to print vast quantities of currency.
Deflation sounds great on the surface. Things getting cheaper, who wouldn't want that? But, how would you feel about your employer giving you a cost of living "pay adjustment" where your pay actually decreases? You wouldn't tolerate it. And don't forget, you still have to service your existing debt with your now lower paycheck.
I think your ideological predisposition prevents you from being able to see the full picture. For instance, you mention nominal figures instead of using PPP. Looking at nominal GDP, China has been stagnant for a while. Looking at PPP GDP, China has surpassed the US. Big difference
I’ve heard that the belt and Road, initiative loan terms are very predatory. It almost seems like they are designed with the expectation that they will be defaulted on. My understanding is that if the country defaults on the loan given, that land is Chinese property.
请问你听说的源头？证据？或者你参与了签署？
It is a common assertion, but it is self-contradictory nonsense. The lending is on extremely concessional terms, not predatory at all. If the money wasn't a whole lot cheaper to borrow under B&RI than it is from western banks these countries would borrow from the west instead. And if a country can't pay back the money it has borrowed from China then that is terrible news for China, for exactly the same reason that it would be terrible news for western banks (it's the old saying - "owe the bank a million dollars and can't pay then you have a problem. Owe a billion and can't pay and the bank has a problem"). From China's POV the B&RI aims to win friends and influence people, not create resentful and unstable debtors.
@@jeffwen9965he is probably referring to the situation with the port in Sri Lanka.
@@darthbumblebee7310 在2007至2013年建设期，汉港项目从中国进出口银行获得12.75亿美元贷款，平均利率约3.2%，大部分还款周期为20年。这些贷款主要用于汉港及其配套的铁路、公路和发电站等基础设施建设。截至2016年，中国贷款并未造成债务危机，斯港务局能够用其在科伦坡港获得的利润偿还汉港贷款。
Kinda
Though the fault in that project is the countries who participate can't really pay it xD
Its also a concern in Philippines because the rates is higher than the japanese. We could pay it since we have a low foreign debt and enormous foreign cash reserves, but for smaller economies, its a trap
This guys has done a full circle. From china doom, to it’s about to collapse, to its not bad, why chinas economy is good to enviable doom again 😂.
Not his fault we can all run out of content from time to time. Keep searching for more bro
Another Gordon Chang style analysis of the "coming collapse". They have problems, but really. As a friend put it, if you really believe what you are saying, you should put all your assets in shorting RMB. Tellingly, Gordon Chang didn't do that or he would have been in the poor house.
In the USA, we have exactly the same problems, only they are related to debt. The main problem is not even how to pay off the debt, but how to live later without taking on new debts. After all, most of the economy operates on cheap loans, and if they don’t exist, the economy will collapse.
the US keeps on printing dollars , because it knows countries will buy its bond straight away.
This what happens when you are a superpower
all the economy is by definition debt. All money that exists in the US was created as debt by banks...
Lol, so sloppy wumao. User-dw5tq4 you guys make these accounts then you have your wumao buddies upvote your comment .. 1989 tieneman square !
Is this episode made by ChatGPT too?
You people needs to go and see China by visiting it. Beautiful country, save country for everyone, black, white or orange. No random shooting, no camps or high wall like in Gaza or US border, only The Great Wall of the past. That would be much better than getting info from a random video with no face and from someone who never visited the country anyway.
There is so much RUclipsr making video of China by VISITING China 😊