Extraordinary hurricane season possible according to NOAA outlook
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- Опубликовано: 22 май 2024
- #NOAA #hurricanes #weather
The first NOAA outlook for hurricane season suggests what we have been seeing from other agencies over the past few weeks: a very active hurricane season is likely.
I take a look at the NOAA forecast plus other topics in today's update.
Link to CPC post and info graphic:
x.com/nwscpc/status/179364608...
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I think it will be a very interesting season. I have a very odd feeling about 2024 hurricane season. It would be very vital that people prepare now and not wait until the last second.
I agree. Could be historic
@@richard123pI'm thinking the same thing for some reason. We shall see....
What do you mean by odd feeling?
@@richard123pI’m Ireland and we sometimes receive the tail end of hurricanes when they transfer over to ex tropical storms, but as the waters get warmer I feel like they could hold their power for longer and give us some viscous storms in north Western Europe come autumn time
Agreed
Watching from Trinidad, thank you
East coast of Florida in trouble this year
We got hit by Ian. I sure hope we don't get something worse.
245% of normal ACE or more could easily beat 1933 for the most ACE units in a single season which totally is possible with more than 300 points on the season possible as well, but a lower chance of that happening. Though, 2020 may see its crown stolen from 2024 too for the most named storms on record in a single season.
This year really is giving a concerning fingerprint. Worried its going to be a 2017/2020/2005 hybrid longer track intense hurricanes and more of them 😢 What do you think the steering may be like this year? Accumulated precips are showing a very wet carribbean.
Should include 2004 in this line up if we remain in a lower end La Niña
@WxCenterNazario I agree
I think a strong Bermuda High will be close to the States sending things into the Gulf
Mix in 2004 as well
Time to get our Hurricane survival kit up to date and ready to go. In 30 years our family have experienced a number of major storms, from hurricane Andrew to hurricane Ian, which was a direct hit on our community, pay attention and be prepared.
Seems that everyone is calling for a very active season. I mean, it could be similar to 2010 or 2021 in terms of total storms, but possibly even more active. I'm from the Caribbean, and the chances of storms in this region seem to be increasing. Will have to wait and see, though, how active it gets, and just hope for the best.
I'm in miami florida and I'm ready for this hurricane season because this season is going to be bad
right it's time to get prepared
Thx Mark
June can be a potentially active month in our basin too I believe. Though, the big thing is that the stability issues in the deep tropics/MDR over the last over a decade other than 2017 likely won't be a problem this year just like 2017 and some of big ACE years like 2010 and 1933 based on the forecasts looking at all the data we see for this hurricane season.
The models are already seeing a potential tropical cyclone north of the Bahamas and I wouldn't be suprised if it becomes a major hurricane. We seem to have a convective impulse coming over the Atlantic at the beginning of June, so it's possible.
@@Agoodpro The particular system being monitored by the NHC is more likely to become subtropical rather than fully tropical or a hurricane. It also only has a 10% chance of forming anyway and will remain in the Atlantic regardless of whether it ever does develop.
I think stability issues we had since 2011 ( except 2017 ) really ceased to exist last year.
2023 was only capped in terms of stability a bit by El Niño but still was very active due to the otherwise favorable setup in the basin,in the face of El Niño due to the very warm basin.
@@brandondunn4562 You're right about that. But those other possible tropical cyclones that the models see, I wouldn't be suprised if they become major hurricanes.
@@mitchelace5 2012 was actually when the stability started. Otherwise, you're right because last year without El Nino had the potential to see the type of setup we're now expecting this year without the El Nino and even heading back into La Nina. Though, El Nino from last year helped setup the potential for this year by actually concentrating the ocean heat content in the tropics rather than spreading it all out over the basin which is a big reason why the forecasts we look at for 2024 are so bullish and are of indication that the stability won't be an issue with bunches of long-lived powerful hurricanes set to happen just like 2017, 2010, and 1933.
imagine that significant convective pulse stalled out over the atlantic and stayed over the atlantic for the entire season june through oct?
Glad we have people like you to help us make the right decision for ourselves and family I appreciate you sir
this year's hurricane season will be very busy
Please be Prepared for this Hurricane season. Have a Plan in place and if you're told to Evacuate please please leave. Blessings be to y'all
I lasted through Hurricane Ian a cat 4-5 Hurricane and in FT Myers it was not as bad as I expected it to be, I think it is because there is so much Vegetation + trees etc. in this town that it cushioned the blow from the high winds, although a small tornado shredded my large oak tree , that was a task to cut up and haul away, small tornados inside the Hurricane are the thing to look out for and also ocean surge which we has a little and a lot of in ft Myers beach, it actually took out estero Island with 15ft storm surge, even some of the houses on stilts were gone
Mark, I've got an extra Logitech Brio if you want it.
If you`re affected by power outages get a folding 100w solar panel with USB charging ports to power little fans, use with battery chargers, and recharge devices and lights. And get a portable solar power station. Even the smaller ones can power many smaller modern rice cookers for boiling water and cooking. For example, the Aroma 4 cup one (actually just a bit over one dry cup uncooked) only uses about 230w of power.
Bay of Campeche is 🔥 right now.
The stream didn't work yesterday everything ok??
They have Ben wrong a lot though so don’t really trust them we will see stay safe will be tuned in to you brother 😎👍
Whats the SAL forecast? That van be a major factor.
Nice giving a 30% chance of development in the Atlantic
NHC
Be prepared but I watch steering currents. If it’s all fish storm then so be it.
See these models have been so inaccurate for the past 4 years they aren’t getting better I mean the gfs alone is making this possible storm look almost hurricane like… I take these models with a grain of salt until 48-72 hrs timeframe
Thanks for all you do, Mark! Be safe out there!
My defense against grapefruit size hail, A extremely rust 1969 Buick Lesabre as my personal car with a cage welded on the front windshield, as i get hit I laugh each time I get pounded by the stones
Nothing can stop the Rolling Stones though!
Each update from the wx forecasters keeps getting worse and worse!
No sir no one knows whats coming,it's all guessing and speculation.
Exactly no one knows.
My area was hit twice in 2020 with several near misses and another near miss in 2021. So I`m preparing now not later. My hurricane preps get used each time the power fails because I have a solar setup and a backup generator for my window AC, freezer and everything else. I`m adding another large battery before August.