Cheltenham Chat | The 2025 Markets | Value ?? | My Long Range Play

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  • Опубликовано: 20 окт 2024

Комментарии • 30

  • @ChrisMcDonough-r8m
    @ChrisMcDonough-r8m 7 месяцев назад +3

    Like the Facile Vega angle. One i hadn't considered. I will get that one on side. I know you aren't one for book building Mark but it sounds like you are having a little go this year. I got 20 of the 27 winners this year. +3000% profit. You know what you are doing and talking about so you should definitely consider it. A few you didn't mention that are worthy.
    Salvator Mundi will almost certainly be aimed at the Supreme and will have had 2 seasons in Mullins' yard. The run in the Triumph was just that, a run. He will be campaigned properly next season and the form line with Sir Gino says he could be a very short price on the day.
    Majborough i have covered for the Browns, Willie says he is built like a 6 year old, and as you say, Ballyburn for the Turners would be the likely chasing target and i can't think of any other McManus novices that could do the 3m distance but will cover for the turners anyway.
    Another Supreme one. The forgotten horse. A Dream To Share. Again, Form is obviously there and if back to full fitness is a tidy price.
    Mirazur West was bred to be a chaser and would be surprised if he wasn't campaigned for the Arkle or Turners and would improve a lot for it i think.
    Keep an eye out for Tiger Bay Queen in the Mares Novices' Hurdle. Picked up a niggle this year and didn't run but is owned by McManus and trained by Peter Fahy. The trainers comments are that this horse ran in a schooling race against one of his good horses and won by a hurdle.
    Hope you keep the videos coming in the close season Mark, even if it's just musing about all things Cheltenham. 👍

    • @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me
      @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me 7 месяцев назад

      Dan Skelton mare let it rain was well talked up for champion bumper I no English bumper form not allways strongest but u have respect the Skelton yard she 12.1 only unibet r pricing the mares novice

    • @Cheltenham-Chat
      @Cheltenham-Chat  7 месяцев назад

      That’s a fabulous profit Chris. I will keep note of the other horses. With the novices I like to see them run but usually by them the price is long gone.

    • @barrystewart4001
      @barrystewart4001 6 месяцев назад

      Can you put up some of your slips showing your 20 out of 27 winners .I have never heard in my life anyone backing over 75% winners as you must be the best tipster on the planet

    • @ChrisMcDonough-r8m
      @ChrisMcDonough-r8m 6 месяцев назад

      @@barrystewart4001 Well they have been cashed Barry. As i said though, i am a book builder so it's not as though i just picked 27 horses and landed 20. You lose quite a few along the course of the season but about, i'd say a third of them stick and make it all the way. I had such a strong first day though that i did a few cover bets across the week. I was heavily involved with Embassy Gardens in the NHC at 25/1, i covered that on the day with Corbetts Cross, think it was £40 at 15/8. Between the two, there was a strong chance i was on the winner. 90% of my ante post bets are EW also so there is also good money to be made on the place market itself. The Ryanair i had the first 3 home, 2nd and 3rd were ante post and i threw £20 at Protektorat at 17/2 on the day, Triumph, Majborough 16/1, Kargese 20/1. Champion Chase i had been chipping away all season at El Fabiolo ranging from around 13/8 down to evens, the odd few quid here and there until it yielded about £200 return but had also been on Gentleman De Mee at 33/1 and on the day Captain Guiness at 11/1. Fact To File was backed at 7/1 as was Gaelic Warrior and Ballyburn was covered at 12/1. Not all massive prices but some are in relation of their SP. It goes on and on but it's a good strategy. This year was easily my best though. If you can work out which novices are going where early enough or have a general idea you can have the top of each market covered at good odds and then selectively play on the day if there is something you have in mind but haven't covered. The handicaps, i managed to land 5 of them, i was only on Absurde and Better Days Ahead on the ante post winners and the other 3 i landed on the day. I don't generally play the handicaps until the day of the race. The value is there at a constant. That was a long winded reply but i don't claim to be a super tipster, i am not even a tipster, i just have a way of betting and trying to stack the odds in my favour. I have £700 laid out for next seasons Cheltenham already. mainly the championship races but there are a few novices in there too. £300 of it is my money and £400 of it is the bookies money. I also have £40 in free bets i have had in doubles with horses like Con Hill and Fact To File etc.I like listening to people like Mark and there are a few others. I am confident i know what i am looking or but i hadn't considered the Facile Vega angle but it's a relevant one and 20/1 is a great price, one that could be 2 or 3/1 on the day.

  • @phgkeets12
    @phgkeets12 7 месяцев назад

    Agree about Shanagh Bob Mark. I fancied him for Cheltenham before horse withdrawn.If Hendo gets his string in order for Aintree and he wins 3 mile novice hurdle he’ll likely be 14/1 or thereabouts 👍

  • @smoking_cheltenham
    @smoking_cheltenham 7 месяцев назад +2

    Hi Mark, thanks for the shout out appreciate that.
    Facile Vega!!!😮😍🤣 sold mate here we go again😂😂😂. Yea cant be having anyone backing that horse without me on the train. It's a good shout though in all seriousness at the prices. Can't see where else he can go with him to be fair, jumps like a wardrobe might be a bit brutal but he certainly doesn't jump how he looks. Sir G was never staying for me but the special one might have half a chance of getting it and worth a ticket to find out at the price.
    Great video mate enjoyed it love the bets all the best.

    • @Cheltenham-Chat
      @Cheltenham-Chat  7 месяцев назад +1

      Thanks Steve. Just another small thank you I backed Stellar Story after your video in December. No best odds 😊. Still a 16-1 winner 👍. Well done on a fantastic season.

    • @The_Cheltenham_Bandit
      @The_Cheltenham_Bandit 6 месяцев назад

      @@Cheltenham-Chat I see you've been sold on the 'special one'...Honestly gents, for the age of Teahupoo, I would not have any ante post money at this stage on anything other than the TEAPOT! I can feel a few 'Smoking-Bandit-Chat' trebles coming out as the season progresses...haha Good shout on Romeo Coolio Mark!

  • @bernardmckey9396
    @bernardmckey9396 6 месяцев назад

    Love your shoes mark and your a gentleman

  • @bernardmckey9396
    @bernardmckey9396 6 месяцев назад

    Tip for Irish national
    Trainers. for courses
    Dermot McLaughlin is a local trainer and has won the last 2/3 Irish Grand National this year it is a very open one
    Dermot McLaughlin fancies his horse
    Digby at 33)1

  • @gerardcorcoran1235
    @gerardcorcoran1235 6 месяцев назад

    Hi Mark 21 flat races today in England good friday,19 are h,caps a joke,I never back on flat only jumps,have a good Easter, regards Gerard from Cork

  • @stephendoran2690
    @stephendoran2690 7 месяцев назад +1

    Port Joulain not a bad shout for the Gallghers at 33s. Decent win at Gowran and skipped the festival. I wasn't impressed by any of this season's bumper crop

  • @phgkeets12
    @phgkeets12 7 месяцев назад

    I do think Ballyburn owners do tend to buy staying chasers Galvin Stattler Ravinden you’d have to think this is what they likely have in mind for him. Slade Steel 10/1 for the Arkle might be worth keeping it simple De Bromhead 2 mile chaser tempted myself 👍

  • @alankeane5595
    @alankeane5595 7 месяцев назад

    I say ballyburn be running in the 3 mile race over jumps brown advisory, factor file gold cup

    • @Cheltenham-Chat
      @Cheltenham-Chat  7 месяцев назад

      I think Ballyburn will take the Galopin route to the Gold Cup and he went Turners but it’s all opinion. Fact To File certain to go Gold Cup but it will be a deep race.

  • @bernardmckey9396
    @bernardmckey9396 6 месяцев назад

    Irish national
    Digby was 33/1 now 25/1
    Good Time Johnny 11/1

  • @denisreynolds1440
    @denisreynolds1440 7 месяцев назад

    Mark do you think there could be some big changes for next years festival, ie no novices in handicaps change the cross country to handicap etc so too early a bit could be the wrong thing to do .

    • @denisreynolds1440
      @denisreynolds1440 7 месяцев назад

      Sorry bet

    • @russellstanton7583
      @russellstanton7583 25 дней назад

      ​@denisreynolds1440 ...you called that well. Both the Turner's and Cross Country are now handicaps

  • @bernardmckey9396
    @bernardmckey9396 7 месяцев назад +1

    Jeroboam Machin Gallaghers
    Maursheen Supreme
    No bumper wins supreme
    Ballyburn Champion Hurdle
    Ballyburn Turner
    Marlborough BA
    Lossiemouth Marrs Hurdle
    Galopin DES Champs GC
    Gaelic Warrior CHampion Chase

  • @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me
    @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me 7 месяцев назад +2

    Marine national mark at 14.1 if u can forgive last run he gets breathing right might be bet mind u the supreme he won looks terrible race now but he was a good winner

  • @bernardmckey9396
    @bernardmckey9396 7 месяцев назад

    Cheltenham was not an Irish dominant it was a Mullins domination and it's only going to get worse
    It's the same with Aidan O Brien on the Flat

  • @russellstanton7583
    @russellstanton7583 7 месяцев назад

    I don't care , 25/1 for Fastorslow in the Gold Cup is too big..

  • @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me
    @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me 7 месяцев назад +1

    Every body talking about corberts cross what about grangclare west i don’t see him in the gold cup markets tho this is me Ciaron talking mark I was telling u my new utube account

    • @ChrisMcDonough-r8m
      @ChrisMcDonough-r8m 7 месяцев назад +1

      I also think Grangeclare West will be aimed at the Gold Cup. I am also waiting for him to be priced up. Mullins will go mob handed next season IMO
      Galopin Des Champs - Donnelly's
      Fact To File - McManus
      Grangeclare West - Chevely Park
      Gaelic Warrior - Ricci
      No conflict of interest and i don't think each owner will mind taking each other on.

    • @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me
      @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me 7 месяцев назад

      @@ChrisMcDonough-r8m surly Willie want something for the raynir tho he had nothing this year in saying that personally i think galic warrior be that horse because personally I think the owners do what Willie tells them the exception wud be gingstown and jp McManus

    • @Cheltenham-Chat
      @Cheltenham-Chat  7 месяцев назад +1

      Hi Ciaron, Grangeclare West is very hard to keep sound so he’d need to be campaigned very sparingly. He’s just so injury prone probably as he’s a very big horse.

    • @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me
      @AffectionateAutoRace-tu6me 7 месяцев назад

      @@Cheltenham-Chat yeah that’s true mark in fairness he wud need be big price to take the chance because of injury record he was impressive winner both starts this season but got injured like u say he big horse