Have We Lost the Red Sea? | What Should be the US Strategy Against the Houthis?
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- Опубликовано: 24 апр 2024
- Have We Lost the Red Sea
What's Going on With Shipping?
April 25, 2024
In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the current situation in and around the Red Sea and should the US continue to protect ships in the region or shift and focus on US-flagged or allied vessels.
#houthi #redsea #shipping #supplychain
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USNI News Timeline: Conflict in the Red Sea
news.usni.org/2024/02/05/usni...
Iranian Ship Linked to Houthi Attacks Heads Home Amid Tensions
gcaptain.com/iranian-ship-beh...
Shipping hits out at scant coverage of hijacked crews
splash247.com/shipping-hits-o...
Shipping Industry Issues Plea to UN to Protect Maritime Security and Seafarers
gcaptain.com/shipping-industr...
ADDRESS OF THE SECRETARY-GENERAL AT THE OPENING OF THE 111TH SESSION OF THE LEGAL COMMITTEE, 22 to 26 April 2024
www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/Se...
Merchant Ships in War Zones | Chief MAKOi Seaman Vlog
• Merchant Ships in War ...
MSCI Advisory 2024-006-Southern Red Sea, Bab el Mandeb Strait, Gulf of Aden, Indian Ocean, Somali Basin, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, and Persian Gulf-Threats to Commercial Vessels
www.maritime.dot.gov/msci/202...
IMF Portwatch
portwatch.imf.org/
EUNAVFOR MARITIME SECURITY THREAT - RED SEA
on-shore.mschoa.org/latest-ne...
No evidence more Chinese or Russian ships transiting Bab el Mandeb
www.lloydslist.com/LL1148896/...
Marine Traffic
www.marinetraffic.com
While US is taking over iranian ship, nobody complains. But if iranians did it, it is thread to maritime shipping...
The cash flow hit to Egypt for less use of the canal must be tremendous. It has to put a serious strain on their economy.
they have BRICS and the emirates to bail them out, dont worry about that..
A plus to iran as the government weakens the insurgents grow stronger
That's Israel's plan, Billy man
And doesn't Egypt border, what is it again, Gaza?
Maybe they shouldn't be so hostile to the Gazans
Perhaps Egypt can charge twice the rate for half the ships.
Strategically the Houthis have a great advantage, they sit on an unsinkable aircraft carrier, and can fire at will on anything passing their way, and they have expanded their range well into the Indian Ocean, this was an extremely stupid fight to get into, because of the history of the region the Houthis are pretty much immune from the normal reprisals the west has used to beat down its opponents. To put it simply expending more wealth trying to bring the Houthis heal ain’t worth the gun powder, or the lives it would take.
I agree. And the amerikans won't do a land invasion because they'll get their a** chewed off. So basically the amerikans are "not winning" and at what cost? Lol
Nothing nukes cant fix
Go back to bed child. @Cba409
@@Cba409 Inhumane
"we" who is that, and "lost" was never yours to lose. "the navies of the world" well Russia and China sail through with no issue. Western hyperbole and hybris
Asymmetrical warfare at its finest.
If you can imagine the Houthi and Iranians policing the waters off the Florida coast, you'll understand why they're so motivated to stop you.
What do we want?
Free trade.
What do they want?
Jewish blood.
You see the difference?
Preach!
And if they could imagine china setting up military bases in Mexico, they could understand why Russia sees NATO setting up bases in Ukraine as an existential threat.
It's America's God giving right to spread DeMoCrAcY and GHEY rights across the Globe 🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️🌎
@@eddieazimi5865WTF are you talking about? 🤡☝️
It will be difficult in going around the Cape in winter, that's when the problem will come to a head.
We'll need some real sailors. Aaaargh!
Winter in southern latitude is around June to September.
@@simonjusticier333 Yes, not long now.
👹 What do you mean?? nuclear winter🔥
@@Pompomgrenade who knows? I hope not, otherwise the winter will be hard in every region, and not only on sea ☠👀
Asymmetric Warfare is a long game. "Winning" is a misleading term. The Taliban lost almost every battle they fought.
Until the last one.
As will the people of Palestine
Consider what they "won"?
Is it better to rule in hell than serve in heaven?
@@WriteInAaronBushnell Israel will win that one, Hamas does not want to win the war, it wants it to continue forever and they keep their terrorist hands on the aid money otherwise they have no future!?!
We have to win, they just have to not lose.
It's in the numbers. As more ships divert, those that dont divert become more highlighted. There's safety in numbers and conversely more risk with fewer ships. Either way, costs go up.
Thanks Sal
Unless we stop the Israeli genocide in Gaza
More likely only those who are "friends" can pass.
Russian and Chinese ships don't need to hide in numbers. All they have to do is inform and raise the flags.
You would think Egypt would have an incentive to help solve this problem so they get the fees from the transit of the ships through the Suez Canal. As for what the US can do, we clearly don't have the warship resources to provide escorts to defend all shipping in the region so that leaves only 2 other options. Do nothing and let the ships go around Africa, or go after the Houthis and their supply chain to prevent this from happening in the future. The conflict in Gaza and Israel will likely play out for months or years to come so some hard decisions will need to be made.
I can hear the deafening silence from Egypt. I’ve never seen a single statement by then concerning the Suez Canal, which provides an important contribution to their National income.
So why is that?
The scared of upsetting Iran?
Or maybe perhaps one of the wealthy oil nations, who is friendly with the houthies, are compensating Egypt for their lost income, so as not to cause divisions in the Arabic world.
For sure, something is going on to stop the Egyptians publicly complaining about loosing half a million dollars per big shop passage, caused by the Iran supported Houthie anti shipping action.
Izrul is the problem
@@Rasscasse muslim brothers its all about the end win fall of the west
@@Rasscasse They don't want to take part in a genocide.
@@RasscasseCompensation seems pretty likely but not necessarily from the regional nations
even if every "missile" is shot down...
the real question is what's the cost for the USN, Indian Navy, etc.
They operated these vessels anyway, so the extra cost is not huge.
It's mostly Europe who pay the price with extra shipping costs, that's why the US is not interested in the end of the conflict.
Just like the war in Ukraine, peace would mean that Europe would buy cheap gas and oil from Russia again, instead of expensive US LNG and oil!!!
Not interesting for the US...
At what cost?
Cost is a very misunderstood thing in this sphere. The value of the thing you are protecting plays a much bigger role and people also misunderstand that interceptor missiles are always more expensive because they must out perform the incoming
it matters who's paying the cost too
@@pottyputter05
@@pottyputter05exactly, cost is a nebulous construct, utility is the important determinant.
The U S navy is not capable of keeping the shipping lanes open.
Let's be clear, if the US got serious they absolutely could. But it would require us moving from defensive acts to offensive ones. The houthi would stop attacking ships, because the houthi wouldn't exist anymore.
Along with a good chunk of Yemen. Ooops?
Dude your channel is so on-point! You, as its creator and deliverer of this information have been awesome from the beginning!!! Really enjoy your personality and natural ability to bring complex info in a very understandable way! i like seeing your posts come up in my alerts. First one I go to. Thank you
Thank you for your work, Sal, especially the recent Key Bridge data. This is a great source of what is happening from a very interesting perspective. It might be interesting to spend a moment to apprise some of us who don't know what the costs are in say using 2 Moran tugs to escort a ship through the temporary channel. What a diver makes in a day, what...
so many things. I'm really enjoying your work.
Sol, thank you American merchant Marine insights and how it's affected by national and international actions. I particularly appreciate your calling it as you see it and not allowing politics to enter your viewpoints.
imagine being such a coward that you're to scared to criticise a failed operation in a country that advocates for free speech. Fuk your ships, stop funding genocide!
uhhhhh deciding you don't care about Gaza is a political decision...
Sal, I know it was a slip of the tongue but USS Florida (SSGN-728) no longer carries ballistic missiles. It is now a guided missile submarine. USS Florida is home ported at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay here in beautiful Saint Marys, GA.
Keep up the good work.
For a split second I mis-read & thought you stated your outfit name as the "Base Kings" lol I grew up on AF bases so it made sense to me.
what
😊
Thank you for the update.
Also the US Navy helped enforce a blockade on Yemen during the Saudi invasion. So pleading about keeping sea lanes open probably rings pretty hollow in Yemen.
i hears tens to hundreds of thousands died of starvation because of that blockade, all because saudi didn't yemen to have a government chosen by it people
@@biggus333The west will pay a huge price for the crimes they've committed in global south.
Very interesting topic. Please keep giving updates on this situation or similar other ones Sal! Thank you!
I am so thrilled to have spotted you on Australian news here in Melbourne lately. Comforting to know that they are finally bringing on the real experts! #DrSal #whatsgoingonwithshipping #whattheship
Sal, you didn't pause long enough for a quick sip when you first mentioned Bab-el-Mandeb .... probably just an oversight or empty mug. Seriously, thank you for another great presentation. Geez, Dr. Sal .... you didn't sip even ONCE. :)
My thought too! The amount of information packed in this episode left no time for Bab-al-Mandab pauses. 🍺
My son is on IKE & I watch your channel to try to piece together the details of what they’re doing there- even though knowing the details doesn’t make sense as to why in the world they are there- it still helps to know. Thank you for taking the time to make these videos, they are much appreciated. ⚓️🙏🏼⚓️❤️
Let me try to explain without getting too political - Sal would frown on that. 🙂
While I'm not one of the perpetual gloom and doomers, there are a LOT of, shall we say, very fragile economies in the world today. The IMF has even given the USA a pretty significant warning - about the US economy. Many European economies are even dicier. Energy supply uncertainties caused by the War in Ukraine, and some other factors, are a large risk to those Euro economies.
For example, assume nothing much about the present situations in Europe and the ME changes for the next year, except that Europe has a very hard winter. Because LNG ships are having to go around S. Africa (in winter - a quite rough ride) delivery times from the ME to Europe can double or more. Since there are not a bunch of extra LNG ships just sitting around unused, essentially that source of gas to Europe gets halved. Particularly since the US has limited gas exports, the potential negative effects to Euro economies are pretty ghastly. The ripples to the US could be rather nasty too...
That's just one instance of the negatives, admittedly one of the most severe if it really goes sideways, but, then again, Mr. Murphy would advise us MULTIPLE difficulties could and maybe even would likely arise. Does Egypt fall to the Muslim Brotherhood if the Egyptian economy goes south? What if a ship or two is lost going around S. Africa in the winter? Will some other shortages develop with time? And so on.
So... The US really is in the Red Sea to try to end or at least mute the problems caused by the Houthis, but, we are not there with nearly enough resources or determination. Instead, the Biden Administration is once again trying to "crisis manage", seemingly afraid to take the bull by the horns. The result not surprisingly being that the bull just keeps crapping on us.
@brandistein5717 US Navy parent here-I so understand-thank ur son for his service, am grateful to him. My son was close to retire, just signed for 5 more yrs-a Chief, been on aircraft carriers-now change duty to 5th fleet, the Bush. It is so hard when our Sailors are deployed, I keep reminding myself the Navy ship crews are well trained & watch each other's backs. I too watch this channel as an excellent source of information. Hang in there Navy parent, Navy families stick together, strength in numbers🙏💙⚓⚓🇺🇲
Prior Navy here, in simplest terms I believe the IKE is there as a show of force. Some flexing, hopefully deterring forces. Just my opinion though.
Thanks for the upload.
One of a kind information...Thanks Sal.
This channel is easily the best on this topic. Thank you very much, I'm always excited to see a new post.
The US has officially stopped providing worldwide protection for shipping on the high seas. The US Navy is not configured for that task. To do that would take ten times the number of destroyers that we currently have. The US Navy is configured for power projection. Period. Sal, you should know that.
The US populace is no longer interested in being the world's policeman. The last US president who even wanted to have the discussion about world governance and security was George H. W. Bush. He was our last president who had the experience, knowledge and interest to actually deal with international issues. He was voted out of office. The presidents we have had since have been progressively more populist. Even Bush's son, George W. Bush, ran on a platform of reduced international involvement and an end to "nation building". Then 9/11 happened. The GWT was a detour, not a change in direction.
It costs a lot of money to patrol the oceans. Unless the US can tax other nations to pay for it, that burden falls squarely in the shoulders of the US taxpayer. Guess what? That is not going to happen, nor should it.
The world is changing. The dynamics for the US have changed. This is especially true of oil. The future will be very different. I am afraid that many people, especially those associated with diplomacy and the military, do not see that. They want to keep things the same. That is not going to happen.
Worlds policeman? 😂
What did the policeman do when England captured an Iranian ship in breach of internatioNal law?
Nothing? Well seems you're the rogue.
@@heinzriemann3213 That is just a turn of phrase.
I believe that that case involved sanctioned oil. In that case, where is the breach of international law?
As for Iran, they have a whole fleet of ships they have seized.
@@louisgiokas2206 Lol sanctioned by whom? Sanctioning trade between two sovereign nations is called...
...
...
Piracy.
@@heinzriemann3213 Your ignorance of international relations is stunning.
Any nation can decide to limit trade with any other nation. That is called sovereignty. To put it another way, there is no requirement to allow trade with another nation. In fact, nations grant trade status to other nations. It is not a natural right. The UN even imposes sanctions.
If a nation is sanctioned, then the nation putting on the sanctions can also decide to sanction third parties that violate those sanctions. That is how the world works.
What you fail to understand is that behind any law, local, state or federal (in US parlance) is force. Without force there are no laws.
@@heinzriemann3213England is the policeman's friend, and the policeman doesn't much like Iran. Hence, the police looked away.
Thankyou for your content and importantly, being easy to listen to.
The Red Sea is a trap that is best avoided, this project is a money pit. Absolutely great information from this episode, great work.
These diversions around the Cape of Good Hope will reduce the volume going through the Suez and the issues that are faced with the one way traffic. Sure, shipping costs will increase overall and maybe that will have the effect of pushing manufacturing back onshore at the US and other countries. Interesting topic, for sure. Thanks Sal for explaining it.
The US have, by bringing so much back to Mexico, self reliant in oil. The US is looking rosy. It is Europe I am worried about.
@@benjones4365 "The US have, by bringing so much back to Mexico, self reliant in oil."
This sentence is not written in English.
Too bad you have 2 generations now who were taught to despise manufacturing jobs and manual labor skills. Bit tricky to get skilled workers.
@@gandydancer9710 OK Wazack, What fucking language is it then?
@@benjones4365Who is this "Wazack" person?
You write what I am willing to assume is excellent Gibberish.
But, as I pointed out, it is not English. Can't you tell the difference?
This is the beginning of the end for US hegemony
Fascinating stuff sir, thank you!
Thanks Sal...always a concise delivery of facts regarding all subject matter, and in a non biased way, makes the information so much more digestable for us laypersons whom are somewhat less (but becoming more...thanks to you) educated with regards to the beast and necessary industry that commercial shipping is to the world!!!!
Cheers from Aus!!!!
Sal - I love your content! Thank you
You are so welcome!
Sal, thanks for the excellent analysis and commentary.
Glad you enjoyed it
The only real solution is to talk to your enemies. Most compromises are based on relationships and building genuine truthful dialogue between the parties. The key is Gaza, military intervention by western nations in the Red Sea will not solve the issue. The only way forward, I see, is a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza with power to act against both sides.
Sal went through this long exposition without ever mentioning that if the U.S. leaned on Israel to stop the genocide, the Houthis would cease endangering the Red Sea. Problem solved...
"The only real solution is to talk to your enemies."
The problem is that the Houthi are under the control of Iran, and Iran takes orders from Putin.
The latest middle east crisis was created to divert American resources from Ukraine.
Putin knows that America will spend any amount of money protecting Israel from a small band of armed rebels, but will quickly tire of spending money to protect Ukraine, and Europe, from the might of heavily armed Russia.
Putin also gambles that a middle east crisis will help Trump's chances in November. Trump is Putin's key ally in Ukraine. If Trump wins then Ukraine is lost, and next goes the Baltic States and all of Europe.
It isn't about Gaza. It is about the fact that Iran and Russia doesn't benefit from international shipping but Europe and America do.
The problem is that Iran keeps starting shit, and has no interest in "compromise". But we aren't willing to call them on it because they supply terrorist organizations rather than go out and actually fight their own battles.
The houthi, hezbolla, and hamas would all fold like newspaper if Iran suddenly stopped supporting them.
Talk to your enemies 😂 that always works
thanks for the broad and balanced update! love your channel, even more so when theres no national headlines. youre filling a big nichte here! :)
Balanced? Where was the Houthi position explained?
@@Onequietvoice he regularly talks about the roots of this shit being gaza. thats a big ask in media today alteady. i feel you, but you gotta cut sal some slack there. he is working a particular audience. and i think he does bring it up quite effectively.
Thank you Dr. Mercogliano. Your insights, analysis and presentations are second to none.
Do you have on-line college courses I could attend?
Not only have you lost red sea but the plot
For want of a frigate a freighter is diverted... for want of a freighter a cargo is diverted...
“For want of a nail…”
For want of a cargo, the supply was substituted... For want of the supply the prices went up
For want of a few nuclear weapons, world trade is diverted.........................
@@karlbrundage7472 Not seeing any shortage of nuclear weapons anywhere.
Do you think drivel is amusing?
@@gandydancer9710 Yes, I think drivel is amusing. I don’t fear that any power is going to light up the Middle East with nukes at this point. Unstable factions in an Iranian government might do so (when they have them) but only if they had a desire to initiate a final cataclysm.
Short-sightedness is always within the purvey of the fanatically apostolic. Thus, the current mess in Israel and Palestine. If the Palestinians had any supposition of the Israeli response, they surely wouldn’t have launched their militarily laughable attack. If the Israelis had tightened their rules of engagement after the initial strike, they wouldn’t have alienated so many supporters. Meanwhile, Iran sadistically cackles.
Thanks as always for your honest assessment Sal.
Excellent episode. Professional. Information dense. Wise conclusions based on the evidence. Thanks!
Wait, wait! I have to get my drink ready...
OK, press "play"
Please provide next of kin info. Alcohol poisoning is a thing.
Day drinking again are we?
The bottom line is Chinese, Russian, etc have a lower operating cost because the Houthis are told which ships are "hands off". In the end, they fund the Houthis anyway so it is "win-win" for them
They haven't attacked those Ships with all pretty and matching colored containers that are unrusted and new ..... mtX
no, I think a Chinese ship was hit!
I'm damn sure they're funded by Iran
Its Iran who funds them the Russians get a pass to operate freely due the the Russians supplying arms to and recently increasing economic corporations with the Iranians
So you must be ignoring the Chinese and Russian ships hit by the Houthis. I’m going to try that. Just ignore facts and argue a different narrative.
Thanks for a really outstanding report! Telling it like it is!
Partly.
Great episode Sal, factually based and to the point. Keep them coming!
Who wants a shirt like Sal’s?
The US has lost. We've never been good at admitting it though, so I imagine this stupid and wasteful operation will go on indefinitely.
Lost what? The Red Sea is irrelevant to our economy.
The US has NOT LOST.
Our Leaders have gotten too far out in front of Americans and like Patton always did, have left their Supply Train behind.
Slow Down and go with the Crowd and Stop trying to be Royalty: You can't.
We have been bamboozled into thinking a retirement age imbecile, who's been found not fit to stand trial for criminal charges, is somehow fit to be leading a world superpower.
We haven't lost we are just unwilling or unable to do what would be required to win.
Land invasion followed by door to door searches forced perimeters around towns. Followed up by local elections to self govern with a treaty and occupation simular to Japan in ww2 or integration to other local nation states, aka arabia/Oman division.
Preferably self governance is the best route, but no one wants war but everyone wants their cheap $0.99 wish golden egg maker, or $2 alliexpress rings
@@RadarLeonyou think the solution is another US regime change operation? How about stopping the supply of ordnance to Israel instead?
Sal..... in South Africa we were treated by the passage of the BOKA Vanguard with an absolutely insanely big cargo on it. Some kind of metal structure, bigger than an oil rig.
You have a lot of sips to catch up on after this one 😁
Great video as always!
"Bab el mandeb" X EIGHT?? Looks like I won't be driving anywhere today!
RIP liver
Thank you, Sal for you excellent reporting. Politicians are expecting that Americans have forgotten about the Red Sea; they may be correct. Most seem to have the attention span of gnats. It's probably good you steer clear of politics that could hamstring your channel, we need you for REAL news.
Travel back in time to find out the root cause:
#1. Did colonies of England/UK rebel with justification?
#2. Resources trade below their actual value because a very, very few people take most of the profits.
#3. Resources are then used to make products that deliberately last less time than what is possible.
#'s 1 thru 3 are inextricably linked together with the reason why empires eventually crumble.
Thank you Sal for these deep dives and discussions about very complex and serious issues. You’re 1000% better than the 60 second piece the nightly news (take your pick) occasionally reports on this ongoing crisis.
May I respectfully pose a somewhat related question? First: full disclosure- I am not a current or former mariner, military veteran or expert in maritime law or diplomatic relations. That said, what occurs in the world interests me. There has been much reporting lately about Israel’s response to Iran’s recent drone, missile and rocket attacks. Especially what Israel’s military (or diplomatic) response should be. I thus pose this question to you or any of the military experts you regularly interview or reference: Why does the IDF, both air, naval and possibly ground assets not consider precision, directed strikes against the ENTIRE Iranian “Navy,” which I have repeatedly read consists largely of fleets of heavy armed “fast boats” (my term), and some larger, more heavily armed vessels. It remains my understanding that the entire Iranian “Navy” is small and compared with the navies of the US and her allies, would be hopelessly outmatched in any all-out engagement. In addition, why doesn’t the Israeli IDF and allied naval and air forces also consider directed, tactical strikes against every one of these heavy lift helicopters, funded by Iran and used by the terrorists in strikes/highjacking of civilian cargo vessels transiting the Red Sea and adjacent waters? No intelligence agencies or military will ever openly admit this, but I suspect that it is known where these helicopters are based, maintained and flown from. In my non-expert opinion strikes designed to destroy much of the Iranian “Navy” and these terror helicopters would be undeniably against clear military assets, not involve (hopefully) innocent civilian populations, would be militarily proportional and perhaps more importantly might just improve the security situation. I have little doubt that Israel could successfully implement such strikes. A wider war between Israel and Iran has always been a concern and possibly. Iran has now struck Israel and continues to wreak havoc in the Red Sea through its well-funded terrorists. Your thoughts Sir - or those of colleagues- on why this is not being discussed? At least openly, to my knowledge. TY.
What would happen if China and Russia declared that they are the only countries allowed to use the Red Sea and nobody else?... Why is that different from exactly the same thing happening now, but a little country Yemen declared it instead of them declaring it?
I think we are positioned there to stop missiles from hitting ships and also prevent missiles from hitting our allies.
fantastic overview of exactly whats happening for months now.
@@OnLyCraftthebestnice reply to Captain Obvious....🙄
@@WALTERBROADDUS My sarcasm could use some workshopping
Who is “we”, jew?
@@jakemocci3953 The civilized half of humanity you are clearly not a part of.
Love the title of this episode. Says it all!
Great video, news and insights thank you Sir
From the very beginning, I asked myself how much of the Red Sea shipping directly affects the USA & why is it the USA is spending the money to ensure safe shipping. I still do not know
A whole lot of it directly affects the USA and most of the world. Check out Mr. Mercogliano's video from three months ago: "The Red Sea Attacks in 10 Charts | What Impact Have the Houthi on Shipping & the Economy?" Short form: longer trips, more fuel, insurance problems....
Because it is on the shortest route between asia and the east coast of the USA.
US government are happy to spend trillions of dollars just to make Israeli feel safe !
I'm getting tired of these 'but muh money' arguments
@@flagmichael I believe you may be misidentifying his point; he is asking why the USA protects ships flagged to other nations that pay no tax halfway across the world.
It’s just horrible that there are so few credible, honest commentators. There is an immense role an honest press is needed for, and the vast majority is useless, corrupt and part of the problem.
Think you need to take a look at who controls the media. If you control the media, you can control the mind of the people. Joseph Gobles knew that, that’s why he was Hitler’s minister of propaganda. I just did a calculation of the 25 richest Israeli. The grand total came to $124 billion. Source CEO world magazine 2024 look it up.
Sal is doing the best he can (everything he says is factual)
The other stuff, the stuff he 🙊, you gotta fill in for yourself.
If he spoke about it, no mo WIGOWS.
That was great analysis, thanks.
Great reporting as always. Also (hic), eight (8) mentions of the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, for those (hic) keeping track.
The cost of fighting this asymmetric war favors the Houthis. The interceptor missiles cost more than the drones plus the cost of deployment of defensive ships is high. To open up the Red Sea requires Iran to pull the financial plug and they hold the cards now. It's not an Israeli-Iran issue.... it's the West-Iran issue.
Nope not west-iran. Just west vs human dignity
I just point out that Israel is also conducting "asymmetric" warfare and turning western Yemen into a second Gaza is an option.
Sal, An interesting calculation would be...how much $$$ has Egypt lost due to the bypassing of the Suez Canal? just thinkin.
I was just thinking the same thing, Egypt is going to have something pretty strong to say about the Lost revenue
Biden will print the money and cover their losses.
Egypt received 10bn in revenue from the suez in 2023 (Bloomberg) and its traffic is down 40% (Forbes and others). So 4bn its looking like for the year.
Thanks Sal, fascinating absolutely fascinating
Excellent report.
honestly, the houthis are fighting harder than Hezbollah
if we support Palestine, that would help.
@@johngillon6969
If we deal with puppeteer (the Ayatollahs) instead of puppets it would help.
@@johngillon6969 the people of Palestine deserve our support. it would most certainly be a step towards stability in the region
@@stnln2180 u brainwashed i think,
@@stnln2180 This would show the world we usa and eu are paper tigers
To lose something you must have it in the first place
A point entirely missed in the analysis.
Great insight regarding shipping and trade routes. You know your shit.. We need people like you in Washington asking fundamental questions like "what the hell is going on with shipping"?
Great shirt choice as always 🤌
MSC Aries was traveling through the strait of Hormoz with both AIS turned off while not following the traffic separation schemes. If you were driving at night with you head lights off in the opposite lane, police stopping you and impounding your car is a given.
lol. Right. It’s more like if I’m walking down the sidewalk and a homeowner calls out “where are you going” and I refuse to answer so he kidnaps me.
@@bobthemagicmoose
Yes! That
@@bobthemagicmoose Not really, read the UNCLOS regulations for straits and channels. There are rules that all ships must follow. Failing to do so will have consequences. Driving opposite the traffic on a highway at night with headlamps off is the perfect analogy.
@@karohe One word: radar.
Highway vehicles don't have radar. Ships do.
Paved highways have distinct physical boundaries and marked lanes.
Yes, ships have designated shipping lanes, but exclusive of marked channels in ports, they have the ability (if not the legality) to plot and steer however they chose.
And they can see vessels around them with their radar and plot courses to avoid collision, etc.
Therefore, your automobile analogy, while well intended, is not completely relevant.
@@ELCADAROSA Sure, let's see if that argument holds in court. Let's agree that the outcome of the case is going to resolve this. Bad faith spins can change public opinion, but not so much a judge that will rule on the subject. Also an israeli linked ship giving Iran such an easy point is dumb. I would have been on my best behaviour given what had happened 10 days prior.
I am from Morocco, from the Rif region specifically. Here, many Moroccans are thinking about communicating with Iran to obtain weapons and even manufacture marine drones locally, in preparation for closing the Gibraltar crossing in the future.
Beats balancing the books I guess
Every little helps the axis of resistance
From Morocco - or Moscow?🤔
@@2uksteve Morocco
Great idea
Great info Sal.
Great report thanks Sal
#USSLiberty
It really doesn’t say much when the U.S. military doesn’t understand the problem.
Or maybe they do, and there’s just no will to do it.
If Houthis aren’t taking dirt naps, the Red Sea will remain closed.
Yep! Lacking the will .
The Houthi military have routinely stated their desire to become martyrs. The USA needs to take them up on that offer.
So genocide?? For shipping routes? this kind of thinking is exactly what leads the US into these kinds of problems. @@kotori87gaming89
@@kotori87gaming89the US already tried and failed, go read about the yemen war since 2015 onwards lol😂
Great insight. Thanks
we need a new better call sal ep. I'm sure you've heard. 😅 can't wait!
its a planned activity to slow down the supply chain and make things more expensive, the great reset
The Yemeni Resistance aren't part of the Zionist Talmudic Great Reset, but their unavoidable reaction to Israel/Zio linked shipping does contribute to shortage of goods and price hikes. People around the world need to take action and demand their regimes stop supporting and fearing the Satanic Zionist Apartheid Terrorist Entity
exceptional suggestions for solutions to access the Red Sea safely
It would be worthwhile to do a segment about how pleasant it is to sail around the Cape Of Storms/Good Hope. It should be getting towards winter there now.
When you can't win, you negotiate... but the US forgot how to do that a long time ago. Longer ago even than our last victorious war.
lol, America has never won a war, not even the civil war. Their military has done well in many wars, but only as a proxy for someone else, never for American people's interests.
Even the Revolutionary war was funded by globalist merchants.
That one was actually kinda funny, tho, because America was gonna gonna not pay them back, but they already had enough control over America at the time that America didn't have a choice.
Here's a clue: You cannot negotiate with those who will gladly become martyrs to fuck you in any way possible.
Perhaps 'we' would be better focusing its foreign policy on peaceful solutions to worldwide problems and conflicts, we does not own the Red sea, I Guess increasing tensions is good for the MIC business.
Thanks Sal !
Thnx again Sal!
All military missions have to start with civilian leadership and commitment.
So you said…if we aren’t winning, then why do we keep our ships engaged in this area? It would seem if we give up our mission in this area “freedom of navigation”…then do we encourage similar behavior in the South China Sea and other hot spots around the world?
I think we need to win this mission, but right now it is not conveying the right message.
@wgowshipping What would you suggest?
@@indylovelace The US and EU should run convoys through the area. This would force the Houthi to expose themselves and then you can strike.
In WWII, convoys were offensive weapons and not defensive ones
USA is spread too thin. China and Russia know this.
@@wgowshipping A key point that people forget. The mission was to sink submarines, with the convoys as bait.
The Red Sea was never yours to lose. The sooner you realise that the better.
The US has Precision guided munitions that can hit a gopher hole from 40,000 feet.
All sent to Ukraine
@@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh We all witnessed them in action in Gaza.
@@williambarry8015 divided among Israel and Ukraine then .
@@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh can't argue with that one bro✌️🇵🇸✌️🇮🇱✌️🇺🇦✌️🇷🇺
They're expensive. Swarms of drones are cheap.
Perhaps the question is: What should our strategy WITH the houthis be? What is it that upsets their security concerns and how could we help them create a secure region for themselves?
My very first comment to your channel on this issue when "Prosperety Guardian" began was to state that the Western Naval action would act as a force multiplier for the Houthi. This has been proved to be absolutely correct.
You see fit to highlight the regretable deaths of 3 crew members due to Houthi action and the massacre committed by Hamas without even a mention of the brutal and disproportionate Israeli response in Gaza or the deaths among Houthi from US and British air strikes. In fact, I have found it impossible to find any coverage of the latter.
You unintenionally demonstrate exactly why the West cannot deal with this area of the world without creating more problems than they will ever solve.
As the Egyptians lose money in canal fees they will likely look to intervene in negotiations for a return to some normalcy.
Is this what an 825 billion dollar military budget buys us? If we can't clamp down on the Houthis then others will be encouraged by our lack of action. We may as well concede the South China sea right now. I miss the days when we were respected.
Being the largest source of entertainment and comedy is respectable in itself😉
It's a team sport.
Who else on the team/
nobody it seems
Perhaps if you idiots haven't spent last 70 years on endless wars with basically everyone you'd not need a 825 billion a year military...perhaps you might have even been respected. Good luck trying to beat more and more of the world into submission though
That really is the problem with half-measures. If we straight up conceded the Red Sea, declaring it not in our interest to protect then at least you could respect that decision. But half-way addressing the issue seems to invite attacks.
That's the problem of asymmetric warfare. Our military may deter Russia or China or Iran but our military is not built to deal with an irregular force.
The Houthi are more of a criminal element hiding in an economic development problem.
The Red Sea is only partly open, some mariners are being held = the Houthis & Iran are clearly winning.
Gas in Corvallis, Oregon yesterday - $4.69 gal. regular.
The premise of your opening statement is if it is solely a win or lose. The range is from 0 ship to unlimited ship traffic, there is lots of space in between, not just zero or infinity. As you mentioned there is still traffic going through at 50%. Additionally, you on combining the Strait of Hormuz situation of Iranian seizures with the Red Sea Houthi situation. They may be related but are different problems. - It will be impossible to stopped 100% of attacks from Yemen if they desire to not stop them. The true question is how much cost effort by Navys to expend versus improved risk profile achieved. Whatever level of effort decided by the folks making the decisions, costs will go up.
spare the rod, spoil the child. we get what we incentivize or ignore. it's a continuum, yes, and worth keeping open for even a high price.
The Red Sea is not ours to lose. I can see legitimate US interests in the safe conduct of global shipping but that doesn't appear to be the priority. While the US government wallows in ignorance (e.g. the Houthis are a tribe that predominate in a political organization properly called Ansar Allah) we ignore the cause of the problem: giving Israel a blank check to do whatever it wants to do the consequences be damned. US gov't policy seems completely dismissive of the worldwide economic consequences of military conflict. In other words, they're not on anybody's side.
So let me get this straight: Iranian proxies dedicated to destroying the US attack shipping boats, and you say Israel is the problem. Stunning logic there.
Once prices hit high enough this will be delt with by all countries effected. No need for the US to destroy yet... yet.
Not going to happen. Chinese exports go across the pacific. US is a net oil exporter. European exports to the U.S. aren’t affected. Indian or Pakistani exports to the U.S.? Really? Very few ships heading to the US find themselves in the West Indian Ocean having to make a choice between the cape or the suez.
@paperandmedals8316 good then they are only hurting themselves.
@@paperandmedals8316 What is with this habit of hyphenating India and Pakistan? It is like hyphenating USA and North Korea. Indian exports in one month alone are double the yearly exports of Pakistan.
@@death_parade just making reference that there are not a great deal of goods coming from that part of the world and the few countries that are there that actually ship goods to the US are - Indian and Pakistan. Unbunch your panties. I fully realize India and Pakistan are different countries and cultures that wholeheartedly hate each other.
Thanks!
just a very elaborate way to raise the price of a barrel. Think About the way the flow and demand has been affected, all the mmajor ave. who benifits in the end .
I think the purpose of being there is the same as the purpose of being in the South China Sea? "Freedom of navigation exercises." Prevent the development of an even worse status quo.
If the world wants free trade on the seas then we should send them a bill for protection, missile expense etc. If they don't want to pay then fine your on your own. Let the Liberian Navy protect your Liberian Flagged ship. Bill should be cost plus.
Exactly what 🇺🇸 DOD contracts have always been my entire life with the purchase overdue by years and quantity control not completed for original contract.
Except we the consumers are the ones fitting that bill lol
Problem is there are NO American flagged ships bringing cargo to the US.