ClimateWatch: MAY’s outlook as El Niño ends, NEUTRAL pattern arrives
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- Опубликовано: 29 апр 2024
- El Niño may be technically gone but the weather pattern it created is still with our part of the world. By that we mean more high pressure south of Australia and drifting towards NZ, bringing long dry stretches and plenty of west to south west winds.
*FLICKERING ON SCREEN: We apologise for the flickering on screen towards the beginning of the video ... it was due to a new light setting. It clears up after a minute and we believe we've resolved it for future videos*
May looks similar to April with some powerful high pressure zones but also a few cold fronts in the mix. The sub-tropics are fairly quiet but the second week of May might see a sub-tropical disturbance that brings some wet weather and windier easterlies to northern NZ.
The Neutral pattern we’re in now means there is more variability - but don’t expect any dramatic changes just yet. International modelling suggests the neutral phase will last for the rest of winter and possibly well into spring. Various models still disagree on what happens later this year - so for now we’re best to focus on the upcoming winter and how the fading El Niño weather pattern is going to look. 
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Philip is the BEST Weatherman Australia has ever had. Yet he is a Kiwi ! Brilliant we LOVE this guy in Australia. He is competent, honest and frankly Aussie LOVES this guy!
Things they don't understand the so called "eXpeRtS" owned by the hysterical clown show climitards. . . . . to infinity, and . . . .beeeyondddddd ! ! ! ! Much Love from Australia to our Kiwi Brothers and Sisters and Thank you Philip !
Yes I wish we had someone as competent as Phillip working for BOM here in Australia. Their weather reports are useless compared to this guys weather report, he runs rings around them.
@@ellbow7287 Exactly ! Beautifully put ellbow7287 ! GOD Bless ya
Wow guys. Fantastic explanation of the current weather patterns. This is why i get all of my news and weather from youtube. Channels like this really do a great service, and don't dramatize events, just report the weather with clear consise diagrams. Best weather channel ever 👍
No establishment driven agenda's here, just weather. Thank you.
Thank you for your brilliant explanation for May. Thanks also for the graphics colour and the hard work. You guy's are the best at this, that is why I watch and also recommend Weatherwatch. Take care.
Sensible and balanced. Thank you👏👏👏
Aussie weather enthusiast here... loved your explanations and discussion there and your genuine enthusiasm for the weather!
I like the building block way of framing the weather patterns.
a real weather forecast ,very well explained , thank you Phil
Great explanation of the coming month weather. Thank you 😊
'Map by NZ Taxpayer' 😂 Great weather analysis, the best weather reportage in NZ.
Thanks for the great reporting!
Great explanation of current weather systems around NZ and Australia. Really need to see this larger area, rather than the BOM’s little box around Australia. Thanks 👌
Looks like a fairly stable, cool, clear autumn for the North Island. Good explanation thanks
A really good breakdown. For a weather report, this guy is doing great.
3:14 "Hope you followed all that. There's a test at the end..."
You funny bugger
Great stuff guys, 6.5 months without rain in Busselton WA is long enough. Glad of the tropical stuff that has just wet our whistle. Love the channel!
Man, that was a salty video, most entertaining. Seriously though you need more promotion, you deserve to be getting thousands more views.
I have faith it will come
You guys are the best! I don't really bother with BoM and the others anymore. Keep up the great work!
Happy may the1st,thank you for your update.
The Suez analogy is apt, because like the Evergreen incident, we are not being told the full story, and anyone who questions the narrative is gaslit as a conspiracy theorist.
Thank you for giving us the goods.
Glenn M
Hang Gliding Nelson
The weather is looking very beautiful here. You can tell by the sky it’s not going to rain. The conditions are not right. When it does start raining the sky changes and the wind changes it smells different. It will be a great relief when the rain does come as the farmers are starting to dry seed. Thank you Phil the weather will break as it always does. We’ll have to be patient. In the meantime I shall continue to water my garden😂🎉
Another Banger report. Exciting watching this channel grow. Keep saying it how it is. Thank you Philip and team
Best chill & passionate forecaster for weather down under!!! Really appreciate all the hard work you do, and how you explain what's going on an what to expect.
We need a decent rain system at the very top of the South Island too.
Still a drought here and very low ground water.
Great report, much better than msm, who just sensationalise and make it confusing
Yay for facts! 👍.
Love the coverage from across the ditch 🦘🇦🇺🌄🐾
Thank-you for another weather update, The main stream more than just weather are so misleading .
Have a Good Day. Paul
Hoping for some good snowfall this year, I think it will be a colder / cooler Winter than what we have had in a while
Great explanation, thanks.
Thanks for the update
most other climate people are yet to declare an end to the El nino event, such as the likes of NOAA in the US, though there is different criteria through other parts of the world, where for NIWA or BOM it has dropped below criteria, currently at the equator it is still +0.6c anomalies, which for sea surface temperatures is el nino by international criteria, an interesting thing to note is that climate models showed a rapid drop to la nina by may-june just back in march, which has failed to really show itself, and i dont know if we have the time at this point to get to a proper la nina until late in the year, most rapid transitions in climate patterns happen in autumn, and usually slow in the winter, and i suspect similar will happen with the el nino / la nina through our winter
Great reporting thankyou! Need it for my gardening work 🇳🇿❤😀
For Queensland, wettest El Nino I think I have seen (Aus BOM said was going to be hot and dry) - hate to have seen how La Nina would have been, would have grown webbed feet! All those climate models ECMWF, ICON, METOEOBLUE, ACCESS, GFS followed them and all wrong. Farmers and Tourism businesses have lost a packet load relying on BOM notices.
Great job! Thanks :-))
The best person ever for weather updates. Thank you for the updates as usual
Eric Orthwaite would love this.
Excellent report & makes a hell of a lot of sense. Good for an Aussie heading to the south island mid May, wont be needing the 10,000mm rain gear methinks :)
💚👍👍👍👍👍
Good work Phil
Great explanations
An old farmer once told me “ if crops haven’t had rain by ANZAC Day, they’ll fail” here in Australia. He also told me that if the August winds don’t happen during August, we’ll have a wet / cool Christmas. Seems to be over the last decade, what are your thoughts Phil ?
Awesome
love your videos Phillip, from here in QLD. Do you have any prognostications on snow for the NZ ski season?
Thanks Phil
great guy
Thanks
Thank you for the extra support, very kind of you :)
What does a neutral weather pattern normally mean for the ski season Phil?
Chances of snow most weeks on the mountains (but as to how much falls, that is much harder)
@@WeatherWatchTV already sounds better than last year lol
Any chance the volcano going off now will alter local, weather?
Who knows - they are very hard to predict!
Brilliant. Bug fam
Just when you were safe from tornadoes in the USA. You find your nearest Australian of New Zealand beeny rather than a hat.
Enso Neutral winter pattern for winter 2024-25.
Next update 3/6/24
Champion weather reporting as per usual!!
Don’t worry about MSM, I don’t watch or read ANY MSM. Not since the BS & lies of the “VID” period when Comrade Jacinda and her cronies were in charge.
You’re balanced, factual and informative…ever thought of branching out into journalism?? 😆😆
Jeez Phil, NIWA and TV1, TV3 are going to go you for hate speech for not toeing the narrative line. Didn't you know that while weather has been around for a bit, climate only started this century and it's been catastrophic.
Lol :)
Is climate change completely ruining our ability to understand and use these long standing patterns?
I don't think so, but it's perhaps breaking (or shifting) some of the historical patterns we've been used to for the past few generations.
Always a pleasure getting the weather from this channel, even better I get to learn something here and there. Cheers! 🦘
Awesome, thank you!
Refreshingly unpolitical weather news 😊
Rain for opening day !!