Level I CFA Quant: Probability Concepts-Lecture 1
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- Опубликовано: 27 июл 2024
- This is Reading 8 for the 2021 exam.
This CFA exam prep video lecture covers:
Probability, expected value, and variance
Ways of estimating probability
Probability stated as odds
Conditional vs. unconditional probability
Joint probability and multiplication rule
Addition rule for probabilities
Practice questions
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At the practice question at the end (@17:00), it should be noted that:
- the two events (A,B) are considered independent (in real-life though, maybe they shouldn't), and,
- for independent events the joint probability [ P(AB) ] is equal to P(A) * P(B) [instead of (PB), as written in the slide]
>> Independent events are explained in the next video.
Dear George,
Yes you are right in real-life these can be depended events but for the sake of simplicity we have assumed them to be independent events, however these events are not mutually exclusive.Also, thank you for pointing out the error in the formula we will fix this shortly.
IFT Support Team
Thank you so much for explaining in laymen terms much easier to understand
Thank you for your kind words.
IFT support team
Great work 🙏
In a study to identify the mean hemoglobin of school age children that involve 450 participant, it was identified mean hemoglobin was μ=10.5 mg/dl and σ= 2.5 mg/dl. Assume child 13.0 were considered high hemoglobin.
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected child will be anemic?
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected child will have normal hemoglobin?
c. What is the probability that a randomly selected child have high hemoglobin?
Lovely work sir.
Thank you.
IFT Support Team
Do you have questions for the extra practice?
Dear Jhanvi,
Following packages might suit your requirement:
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IFT Support Team
Man thanks so much
Dear Cheikhou.
You are most welcome! IFT's objective is to help CFA candidates around the world. There is more material on our website: ift.world/ IFT Support Team
How did you come to the answer of 0.17 for the practise question at 10:35?
Thanks for your videos they are extremely helpful!
Use the formula = a/(a+b)
Hi Thanks for the videos why do you times it by 0.5 at the end I don't understand ?
It is basically P(A) * P (B) = 0.6 * 0.5. So 0.5 represents P (B).
IFT Support Team
Can you please help me, so the only way to compute the joint probability is if the conditional probability and one of the probability is given? And what the difference between joint probability given by that rule and the one in the addition rule P(AB) ?
Dear Chic,
There is no difference, P(AB) represents the joint probability for events A and B and is calculated using the multiplication rule. P(AB) = P(A|B) x P(B). However for independent events, the multiplication rule simplifies to P(AB) = P(A) x P(B). Therefore, you will only need conditional probabilities if the events are dependent. If the events are independent, you simply need P(A) and P(B)
IFT Support Team
IFT thanks
@@IFT-CFA this explained all. thankyou. IFT.. your channel is my fav channel.
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Thanks for your kind words!
IFT Support Team
In the minute 8:50 the odds how do you get the 2/3. In the division i know is 1- P(E). But how you get the 2/3. I forgot math sorry 😔
P(E) is 1/3, so 1 - P(E) should be 1 - 1/3 which is equal to 2/3.IFT support team
Shouldn't P(AB) at min 16 be 0.35 not 0.3? ...... 0.5x0.7 = 0.35?
I have the same question =/
@@georgeli5795 conditional and unconditional are different
No because we do not have the probability of P(A|B), we only have the probability of P(A) alone.