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what a great interview, well done Raoul, wish i could understand all the economic jargon, but understood enough. brilliant movie The BIG Short. and brilliant man Kyle Bass. what vision and understanding of economics.hope you come to australia. great idea for a series also
Holy shit I didnt think that this interview could get any better until he mentioned he wants to interview John Burbank... YES!!! Looking forward to that !!
Anyone believing that we started a new bull market in 2018, needs to step back and look at the Macro picture (Check out all of Real Vision videos to get non-biased analysis which consider both sides of the argument). One of the main reasons why stock market is still rallying is due to buybacks, However, most insiders are selling now. Kyle Bass rocks!
It was good to skip the economics in college. Banking and finance was the best course in economics at the graduate level. Rothbard is a must read for your young staff.
It's the best job on earth. At least for those who love to learn about the world and geopolitics and don't mind reading. The only downside might be worrying about being wrong or worrying that markets will stay insane longer than you can keep your job.
Then you should start writing about them. Particularly the more egregious things you notice, people pay attention fairly quickly. Soon enough, you'll have funds approaching you. Seeking Alpha will pay you when you write what they deem to be good pieces. LinkedIn, no pay, obviously - but investors take notice.
I think Kyle is rationalizing his trade back in 2007. Some people just get lucky, because what could have happened is house prices could have gone up another 50% and Kyle could have gotten creamed and went bust. You can say the same about Warren Buffet. Warren even said that if it wasn't for 1 or 2 trades early on he probably wouldn't even have $10 million to his name today.
His 2007 bet was so asymmetric and risk so small that he would not have got creamed if housing gained 50%, he used CDS on the MBS not conventional shorting of a housing index or something similar. Warren is also extremely modest about his achievements (false humility if you ask me). You yourself are rationalizing your own lack of success by downplaying their achievements as luck-based.
Matt Phelps My success is fine. I don't need a billion dollars. It's harder for a rich man to get into heaven than a camel to go through the eye of a needle. The Bible is true which is where your angst might really lie against. Several million is good enough for me. Kyle indeed would have experienced a drawdown of at leas 50% if houses went up another 50% with his bet against MBS and CDS; his options would have expired worthless. That's reality. He gambled. He won. The same is true for Warren. Some gamblers win. It is much harder to get to 50 billion if for the first 50 years of your investing life you are still struggling to get to 10 million. Most people will see at most a few hundred thousand in savings, and in the rest of the world not even 10 thousand in savings. Think about it. His first two investments got him to 25 million in a flash. So what I said holds true, and you are just trying to discount this fact because, perhaps, you have delusions of grandeur for yourself. The odds are you will remain where you are. The bell curve says some people will be at the extreme one end of the curve, and others at the other extreme. Don't over think it, and not necessarily due to their own incompetency or competency. People ascribe too much credit to themselves in this highly complex and multi-faceted world. Many parties come together to make things happen; certain people are highly privileged due to their unique experiences given to them by God others are not privy too.
too much to reply too but if his options expired worthless he wouldn't lose 50% as he didn't have anywhere near 50% of his portfolio in CDS on mortgage bonds as that would be the most worst risk management in the world. I don't think you understand how he actually placed the trade. I agree that luck plays a big part, but Kyle and Warren have positioned themselves to benefit hugely from good luck and not lose much from bad luck, hence the have optionality (Taleb). How cananyone in investing be anything other than lucky? you cannot prove that someone is good all you can do is look at their returns and consistency.
Matt Phelps We are not talking about how much of his own exposure he invested with just the return on the investment itself. The issue is not luck or positioning yourself for luck, but some people are on the extreme end of the bell curve is all. I don't think you understand how he placed that trade. The bottom line is Kyle's return of that investment would itself have gone bust if houses went up another 50% which could have easily done in this topsy turvy world. And the whole point for Warren is he admits rightly so that if it wasn't for his first one or two investments that gave returns in magnitudes of thousands of percent he wouldn't be where he is today. Who knows, he could be lying in the streets because he got busted out and his thinking was colored by his bad trade. A gamble that paid off immensely, the same with Kyle's bet; he was in the right place at the right time with the right influences which not everyone receives such exposure. You will find even investors with the best information make horribly wrong calls which by all rights seemed like good decisions. Taleb's books are cute but in investing not that helpful.
It is interesting that the crisis predicted by many contrarians didn't happen in 2015. That is a year I still do not fully understand. 2020 will also be an interesting year. Will hyper inflation break the power of central banks and force the training wheels off? Or will they have an other trick to create a 'sustainable' economy?
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
Get more amazing videos like this on Real Vision Premium for only $1 for 3 Months here: rvtv.io/YTDollarPin
No more waiting for the content to make it here weeks or even months after it was shot and no missing out on insights and information that move markets. Better yet.... No advertisements! Join today!
Kyle Bass and Raoul. 🥂Cheers!
5years ago now its May 30 2020 year of the great pandemic. This is worth listening. Great interview🤝
what a great interview, well done Raoul, wish i could understand all the economic jargon, but understood enough. brilliant movie The BIG Short. and brilliant man Kyle Bass. what vision and understanding of economics.hope you come to australia. great idea for a series also
Holy shit I didnt think that this interview could get any better until he mentioned he wants to interview John Burbank... YES!!! Looking forward to that !!
+MrAlgo Except Burbank seems the opposite of Bass on equities right now.
THIS IS SUCH AN AWESOME INTERVIEW AND CONCEPT! PROPS TO YOU RAOUL! I hope to join you both at the BES asap!
Anyone believing that we started a new bull market in 2018, needs to step back and look at the Macro picture (Check out all of Real Vision videos to get non-biased analysis which consider both sides of the argument). One of the main reasons why stock market is still rallying is due to buybacks, However, most insiders are selling now.
Kyle Bass rocks!
You are a champion, Kyle. So honest in terms of managing people softly hardly
It was good to skip the economics in college. Banking and finance was the best course in economics at the graduate level. Rothbard is a must read for your young staff.
I'd love to work at a firm, just research marco stuff all day and find good investments
That's the dream eh
Yeah,do you like reading macro studies all day..thats probably what it involves
It's the best job on earth. At least for those who love to learn about the world and geopolitics and don't mind reading. The only downside might be worrying about being wrong or worrying that markets will stay insane longer than you can keep your job.
Emma Muhleman, CFA, CPA I do love those things!
Then you should start writing about them. Particularly the more egregious things you notice, people pay attention fairly quickly. Soon enough, you'll have funds approaching you. Seeking Alpha will pay you when you write what they deem to be good pieces. LinkedIn, no pay, obviously - but investors take notice.
I have been waiting for this video for a long time! Subscribed immediately! Can't wait to see where this goes.
Congrats on a great idea
Great interview. Thank you very much!
fabulous interview with a great mind!
Great interview
I think Kyle is rationalizing his trade back in 2007. Some people just get lucky, because what could have happened is house prices could have gone up another 50% and Kyle could have gotten creamed and went bust. You can say the same about Warren Buffet. Warren even said that if it wasn't for 1 or 2 trades early on he probably wouldn't even have $10 million to his name today.
His 2007 bet was so asymmetric and risk so small that he would not have got creamed if housing gained 50%, he used CDS on the MBS not conventional shorting of a housing index or something similar. Warren is also extremely modest about his achievements (false humility if you ask me). You yourself are rationalizing your own lack of success by downplaying their achievements as luck-based.
Matt Phelps My success is fine. I don't need a billion dollars. It's harder for a rich man to get into heaven than a camel to go through the eye of a needle. The Bible is true which is where your angst might really lie against. Several million is good enough for me. Kyle indeed would have experienced a drawdown of at leas 50% if houses went up another 50% with his bet against MBS and CDS; his options would have expired worthless. That's reality. He gambled. He won. The same is true for Warren. Some gamblers win. It is much harder to get to 50 billion if for the first 50 years of your investing life you are still struggling to get to 10 million. Most people will see at most a few hundred thousand in savings, and in the rest of the world not even 10 thousand in savings. Think about it. His first two investments got him to 25 million in a flash. So what I said holds true, and you are just trying to discount this fact because, perhaps, you have delusions of grandeur for yourself. The odds are you will remain where you are. The bell curve says some people will be at the extreme one end of the curve, and others at the other extreme. Don't over think it, and not necessarily due to their own incompetency or competency. People ascribe too much credit to themselves in this highly complex and multi-faceted world. Many parties come together to make things happen; certain people are highly privileged due to their unique experiences given to them by God others are not privy too.
too much to reply too but if his options expired worthless he wouldn't lose 50% as he didn't have anywhere near 50% of his portfolio in CDS on mortgage bonds as that would be the most worst risk management in the world. I don't think you understand how he actually placed the trade. I agree that luck plays a big part, but Kyle and Warren have positioned themselves to benefit hugely from good luck and not lose much from bad luck, hence the have optionality (Taleb).
How cananyone in investing be anything other than lucky? you cannot prove that someone is good all you can do is look at their returns and consistency.
Matt Phelps We are not talking about how much of his own exposure he invested with just the return on the investment itself. The issue is not luck or positioning yourself for luck, but some people are on the extreme end of the bell curve is all. I don't think you understand how he placed that trade. The bottom line is Kyle's return of that investment would itself have gone bust if houses went up another 50% which could have easily done in this topsy turvy world. And the whole point for Warren is he admits rightly so that if it wasn't for his first one or two investments that gave returns in magnitudes of thousands of percent he wouldn't be where he is today. Who knows, he could be lying in the streets because he got busted out and his thinking was colored by his bad trade. A gamble that paid off immensely, the same with Kyle's bet; he was in the right place at the right time with the right influences which not everyone receives such exposure. You will find even investors with the best information make horribly wrong calls which by all rights seemed like good decisions. Taleb's books are cute but in investing not that helpful.
Kyle Bass is so f-cking smart.
Finally the man behind the myth !
By event driven micro;what are they referring to specifically?like a merger?
Great,inspiring stuff.
kyle bess is just brilliant
What is policy divergence?
Interesting to watch this 4 years later. Training wheels still firmly on. Probably will never be taken off.
It is interesting that the crisis predicted by many contrarians didn't happen in 2015. That is a year I still do not fully understand. 2020 will also be an interesting year. Will hyper inflation break the power of central banks and force the training wheels off? Or will they have an other trick to create a 'sustainable' economy?
How much did he make on Greek CDS?
Impressive.
Investment strategy of Kyle Bass: What's the fastest way to lose money?
YEAH
Kyle going short, "next year" "exciting" lol
Kyle’s fund’s performance has been terrible and he called a market top in 2015 in this video
Very likable dude. Should get hair implants though. No reason to suffer that needlessly, and he's a good looking dude too. Great interview!
I like Raoul but Bass is a pyschopath
Great questions great interview